STATE COHESION IN THE INTERNET AGE

Lucia Livak

ll6581a@american.edu

American University

School of International Service

RESEARCH QUESTION & RESEARCH HYPOTHESIS

Are Internet usage and perception of state cohesion related?

Research Hypothesis: Individuals who use the internet

regularly, particularly social media users, will also perceive a greater amount of tension between factions within the country

Null hypothesis: No correlation exists between Internet

usage & perceived state cohesion

BACKGROUND INFORMATION Defining and Measuring Social Cohesion: Jenson

(2010) Explores strategies for measuring social cohesion Provided basis for use of factions as a variable

Horizontal Inequalities and Conflict: Brown and Lager (2010)

Studied connection between factions and violent conflicts

Found tensions most dangerous with two equally sized groups or factions, but does not explore what creates factions

Investigating Internet usage as innovation adoption: Chatzoglou and Vraimaki (2010)

Found Internet usage correlated with males, the young, and those with money in Xanthi, Greece

DATA Unit of analysis/study : Individual

Country of study: Lebanon

Source of the data: Nationally Representative Sample collected by Pew Global

Attitudes Survey, 2010

Reliability of the data : Three questions have 560 respondents each, with 15 or fewer

refusals. One question has 229 respondents with 1 refusal.

Dependent variable/s Nominal, Q94: “Do you think there is a struggle between groups

who want to modernize the country and Islamic Fundamentalists?” with categorical responses “Yes” and “No”.

DATA Independent Variable

Q63: “Do you use the Internet, at least occasionally?” with categorical responses “Yes” and “No”

Q64: “Do you send or receive email, at least occasionally?” with categorical responses “Yes” and “No”

Q66: “Do you ever use online social networking sites?” with categorical responses “Yes” and “No”

Q120: Gender, with categorical responses “Male” and “Female”

Q121: “How old were you at your last birthday?” ranges from 18 to 71

Q131LEB: “Here is a list of monthly incomes. Which does your household fit into?” split into $500 increments, from “less than $500” to “$5501-$6000”

CENTRAL TENDENCIESFor Q94, the mode is “Yes”, indicating an overall perception of tension between modernization and Islamic Fundamentalism

46.97%

53.03%

No, there is not a struggle Yes, there is a struggle

Source: 2010 Pew Research Center, 545 respondents

State Cohesion in Lebanon

For Q63 and Q64 about Internet usage and email, the mode is “No”.

For Q66, which only uses Internet users, the mode is “Yes”, indicating any Internet usage is correlated with Social Media usage.

BIVARIATE ANALYSISResults suggest no relationship between variablesGamma

: Chi2: Research hypothesis

Internet Use

G=0.015(0.18) N=544

χ2=0.031(0.86) N=544

Cannot Reject the Null Hypothesis

Gender

G=0.061(0.71)N=545

χ2=0.50(0.48), N=545

Cannot reject the Null Hypothesis

Income

G=0.043(0.72), N=525

χ2=12(0.57), N=525

Cannot Reject the Null Hypothesis

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Model 1

Model 2

Model 3

Model 4

Age(Sig., p)

0.0031(0.055)

0.003

8(0.032

)

0.0037

(0.036)

0.0038

(0.034)

Internet Use

0.051(0.29)

0.048 (0.32)

0.047(0.33)

Gender 0.023(0.60)

0.022(0.61)

Income 0.00046

(0.74)

NChi2

5453.7

5444.6

5444.9

5245.0

BIVARIATE ANALYSISResults suggest no relationship between

the variables

Gamma: Chi2: Research hypothesis

Internet Use

G=0.015(0.18) N=544

χ2=0.031(0.86) N=544

Cannot Reject the Null Hypothesis

Email G=0.020(0.23) N=543

χ2=0.053(0.82) N=543

Cannot Reject the Null Hypothesis

Social Networking

G=.080 (0.58) N=219

χ2=0.33(0.57) N=219

Cannot Reject the Null Hypothesis

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Model 1 Model 2 Model 3

Internet(Sign.,

p)

0.0076(0.86)

0.010(0.82)

Email

Social Network

s

0.034(0.63)

NChi2

5440.031

5430.053

2180.24

FINDINGS & POLICY IMPLICATIONS

The Null Hypothesis cannot be rejected. State Cohesion and Internet Usage, as defined by this study and seen in Lebanon, are not related.

Despite suggested correlation between the rise of social media and violent conflict or revolution, this study finds no correlation. While social media may still affect the end outcomes, it does not appear to be correlated directly with state cohesion.