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S-12 project and Regional Emission Inventory in Asia (REAS)
Toshimasa OharaNational Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Japan
with Tatsuya Nagashima (NIES), Jun-ichi Kurokawa (ACAP) , Keiya Yumimoto (MRI) & S-12-1 project team
18 October 2016International Meeting on Land Use and Emissions in South/Southeast Asia
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What is SLCPs (Shout-lived Climate Pollutants)1. Tropospheric ozone: Its precursors: CH4, NOx/VOC2. Black carbon (BC)
1. Air pollution reduction2. Climate change mitigation 2
(Akimoto, 2013)
Why SLCP mitigation now?(1) Climate Policy Side
CO2 control can mitigate climate change only after 2050 for grand and grand-grand children generation, but the present climate change is more urgent issue and mitigation in mid-term future (2030-2050) should also be concerned for our own and our children generation. SLCP control must be useful to accomplish the near future mitigation of climate change.
(2) Air Pollution Policy SidePresent situation of health and vegetation impact by surface ozone and PM is serious from human health and economic damage point of view.
This is particular so in Asia! In order to facilitate mitigation of air pollution, SLCP control by co-benefit approach must be useful particularly in developing countries giving more incentives.
3Much need of SLCP mitigation in Asia
MDG・SDG・Future Earth
Integrated analysis of AQ change in Asia
Technology selectionSocio-economical scenario
Global impact assessment of global warming and air pollution
StakeholdersPolicy makers
Society
Theme 4: Integrated operation system (Toolkits, data archive)
Cool earth messagesSystem use
Theme 1: Regional AQ change event analysis
Theme 2: Integrated model and upscaling
Theme 3: SLCP impacts on climate & environment
CCAC, UNFCC, IPCC, EANETactions and decision
Regional strategy
⇅Global
strategy
Science
Experiment setupData generation
Metric definitions
Model improvement
Upscaling regional mitigationImproved EI
Impact evaluationRegional emission scenario
Regional emissionInventories, CTMs &inversed modeling
Asia-PacificIntegrated
Model (AIM)
Climate/environmental
models
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MOEJ-S12: Active evaluation of SLCP impacts and seeking the optimal pathway (2014-2018) PI: Terry Nakajima
Reduction of SLCP is easier than that of LLGHG due to their short lifetime, but the effects are very complex.
Therefore, search for optimum mitigation paths is important for society. It is needed to develop an active evaluation system for LLGHG and SLCP mitigation
policy, by overarching emission inventory, integrated models, and climate models.
By Dr. Hanaoka
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Aim of Theme 1 of S12
(1) The air quality change events caused by air pollution control and socioeconomic variations, which are considered to be social experiments of SLCP mitigation, are analyzed by means of regional/global chemical transport modeling (CTM), inverse modeling (IM) and regional emission inventory (EI).
(2) CTM, IM, and EI are integrated as an analysis/verification system for quantifying the emission reduction and air quality improvements due to SLCP mitigation. The system is validated by the analysis of air quality change events.
(3) The system is applied to assessment for SLCP mitigation policy and future emission scenario.
Structure of analysis/verification system for regional air quality changes
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全球規模 CTM
Δx = 180 km (T63)
領域規模 CTMWRF/CMAQ
Domain 1: Δx = 60kmDomain 2: Δx = 15km
Domain 3: Δx = 5km
Inverse modelingEmission inventory
EmissionsModeled results
CTM
A priori emission
Emissions
A posteriori emission
Global CTM Regional CTM
Another model: NICAM-Chem (Multi-scale seemless CTM)
Ground, Lidar & satellite monitoring data
Successful modeling of O3 increase during 2000-2009 and
its decrease after that Seasonal and spatial variations of
O3 trend during 2000-2009Spring, Autumn > Summer, WinterWest > East
Simulated long-term variation of surface ozone in Japan
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O3
trend
(ppb
v/ye
ar)
Obs. Model
Seasonal variation of O3 trend
Annual J F M A M J J A S O N D
Changes of O3, BC, and PM2.5 in Asia during 10 years Emissions Surface concentration Changed conc.
(2000) (2010) (2010)-(2000)(2010)
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BC
O3
PM2.5
ppbv
μgm
-3
ppbv
μgm
-3
μgm
-3
μgm
-3
NOx
VOC
BC
SO2[Mg yr-1 0.25deg-2]
Item Description
Emission sources Anthropogenic
Areas E, SE, and S Asia +Russian & Central Asia
Years 2000-2008
Spatial Resolution 0.25 x 0.25 degree
Temporal Resolution Monthly
SO2 NOx CO PM10 PM2.5 BC OC NMV NH3 CH4 N2O CO2
Fossil FuelBiofuel ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
IndustrialProcess ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Fertilizer use ● ● ● ●
Livestock ● ● ●
Others ● ● ● ●9
[Ver.1] Ohara et al. (2007) ACP; [Ver.2] Kurokawa et al. (2013) ACPRegional Emission inventory in ASia (REAS)
Recent progress of REAS update
Developing emission inventory system
Historical emissions (1950 – 2011)
Updating for recent years and collaboration
with inverse modeling
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中国
EMs of all species in Asia increased significantly during these six decades.
Recently, first and second contributors of EMs in Asia are Chinaand India.
SO2 and NOx EMs in Japan increased drastically after 1960 and they were majority of Asian EMs before 1970 and 1980.
EMs from SEA and SA, especially India were increasing recently, but those from OEA were basically decreasing.
SO2 [Tg/yr]
CO [Tg/yr]
PM2.5 [Tg/yr]
BC [Tg/yr] CO2 [Pg/yr]
NOx [Tg/yr]
Historical emissions in Asia during 1950-2011
11
中国
SO2 [Gg/yr]
PM10 [Gg/yr] BC [Gg/yr]
NOx [Gg/yr]
Historical emissions in Vietnam during 1950-2012
12
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20100
100
200
300
400
500
600
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20100
10
20
30
40
50
60
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
History of Air quality in Japan
O3,NO,NO2 [ppm], SPM [mg/m3] CO [ppm]
Kita kyushuYokkaichi Year Major National Laws and Regulations
1968 Air Pollution Control Law
1974 Regulations for SO2 emissions for stationary sources
1978 Regulations for road transport emissions
1977 Regulations for NOx emissions from HDV
1981 Regulations for NOx emissions for stationary sources
1992 Automobile NOx Law
1993 Basic Environmental Law
1993 Regulations for PM emissions from road transport
2001 Automobile NOx/PM Law
2011 Regulations for stationary VOC emissions
Annual averaged concentration of air pollutants in Japan
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Estimated NOx emission reductiondue to emission control in China and Japan
China total
14
Japan total
China automobile Japan automobile
China power plant Japan power plant
[MtNO2/Yr] [MtNO2/Yr]
27%
40%
39%
76%
87%
73%
Reduction rate Reduction
rate
Schematic diagram of inversion modeling system
Inversion model
Emission inventory (EI)
CTMSatellite measurement
Top-down approach
Semi-real time update of EI
Development of better EI with lower uncertainties
Analysis of air quality change events 15
Yumimoto et al. (2015)
NOx emission trend in China from top-down and bottom-up approaches
16
Yumimoto et al. (2015)
By combination of two approaches, we can update emissions with two years lag.
Recent changes of NOx emissions in Chinaestimated by top-down and bottom-up approaches
17
-10% target of NOx emission based on12th five years plan (during 2011-2015) is successful or fail ?
Since 2010, different trends between top-down (inversion) and bottom-up (REAS)
Analyzing the reason why?
Toward improvement of EI
Summary
1. Asian approach for SLCP mitigation should be paid attention to air pollution reduction. S-12-1 project is developing an analysis/verification system for quantifying the emission reduction and air quality improvements due to SLCP mitigation.
2. Regional Emission Inventory in Asia (REAS) are being updated to historical and latest emissions, and improved using top-down approach. More linkage of two approaches is needed and also more collaboration with inventory group in each country is important.
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・REASでは中国全土で増加しているが、逆推計では減少している地域もある。・逆推計結果のモデル依存性は少ない。・日本ではREASと逆推計の傾向が逆
2008~2011年の変化率(%/年)
NOx排出量の最近の変化の解析
REASインベントリ 逆推計(GEOS-Chem) 逆推計(CMAQ)
2010→2011年の排出量増加において逆推計とREASの差が大きい10省のセクター別内訳
発電44%
REASでは発電
の脱硝装置設定が過小か?
212008-2012年の中国のNOx排出量トレンド
※ 2008年を1.0とした場合の比率
線:逆推計、棒:REAS
Comparison of emission inventory in Vietnam(Power plant and industry only;Gg/year)
Species EDGAR CGRER REAS 2.1 MONRE2008-2010 2006 2008 2009
CO 407 128 77 –NOx 175 138 179 656SO2 326 268 341 1,117NMVOC 31 103 16 268TSP – – – 673PM10 145 630 262 –
* MONRE (Ministry of Natural Resource and Environment)
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