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Russia’s Capacity for Oil and Gas Exports
and its Global Impact
Project “Central Eurasia”, www.ceasia.ru
Еmail: [email protected] ; [email protected]
Copyright © 2013
Vladimir Paramonov, Ph.D., Tashkent, Uzbekistan
The project is covers political, economic, security, and energy issues in Central Eurasia and Shanghai Cooperation Organisation: Russia, China, Central Asia, and in some aspects – India, Iran, Pakistan, Mongolia. Country and regional level relationships within Eurasia are explored. The issues of regional integration, activities of the countries within regional institutions, country and regional level relationships, policy of Russia, China, and other major players in Central Asia are widely researched and discussed.
Project “Central Eurasia”
Known reserves
Oil – 6-8% of the world's oil – about 9-13
billion tons
Gas – 27-29% of the world's natural gas –
about 40-50 trillion cubic meters
Extraction/Production
Oil – 11-13% – about 480-520 million tons
Gas – 16-18% – about 640-690 billion cubic
meters
Consumption
Oil – 6-8% – about 240-280 million tons
Gas – 10-12% – about 430-470 billion cubic
meters
Note: during the last 40 years, the fuels used for
electricity generation in thermal power stations were
mainly natural gas and oil – about 50% in the
energy balance/mix
Reserves, extraction and consumption
The annual export of hydrocarbons:
- 240 million tons of oil
- 200 billion cubic meters of natural gas
Russia’s impact is limited by:
- post-soviet space
- European Union
- Turkey
Export
Ukraine: 65-70% of Ukrainian needs for oil
(about 4 million tones) and about 75% needs
for gas (about 40-50 billion cubic meters)
Belorussia: almost all of the oil and gas needs
of Belorussia – over 20 million tones of oil and
22 billion cubic meters of gas
Moldova: almost all needs of Moldova for oil
and gas (about 0,5 million tones of oil and 4
billion cubic meters of gas)
EU: 30-33% of the EU needs for oil (about 200
million tones) and about 20% needs for natural
gas(about 100 billion cubic meters)
Turkey: about 25% of the Turkey’s needs for
gas (about 26 billion cubic meters)
China: some China's demand for oil – about
3% of needs (15 million tons)
• the markets of raw materials
EU: about 80% volume of oil exports and
about 50% volume of gas exports
Ukraine: about 20% volume of gas exports
and 1-2% volume of oil exports
Turkey: 12-14% volume of gas exports
Belorussia: 12-13% volume of oil exports
and about 10% of gas exports
China: 6% volume of oil exports
• the world and regions (especially
European) pricing environment: 60-70% of Russian state budget are
revenues from oil and gas export
Dependence
• the advanced foreign technology and investment necessary to extract
more and more difficult to extract oil and gas, transport them from deep in Siberia
and the northern territories of the Russian segment of Eurasia
• the foreign tanker fleet: since
its almost not
• transport infrastructure in
Europe and Turkey (both land
and sea), on which exported most
of the Russian energy resources,
particularly hydrocarbons: about
50% of exported oil export (110-130
million tones) and about 90% of
exported gas (a little less 200 billion
cubic meters)
Russia is sufficient strongly dependent
on controlled by Turkey Bosporus and
Dardanelles and controlled by
Denmark Skagerrak given that a large
supply of oil (more than 30% volume of
exports, a little less than 100 million
tons annually) are made through sea
terminals.
Forecasting future is a question of trying to
calculate the effects of a number of complex
and unknown variables. Many assumptions
must be made to arrive at what can only be
considered a rough estimate, even for the
short term (up to 5 years), even more so for
the medium term (up to 10 years) and long
term (up to 20 years).
Russia planed to increase its oil extraction by
25-40% by the year 2020 (from 480-520 to
660 million tones) and its gas extraction by
30-40% (from 640-690 to 900 billion cubic
metres). Russia also planed to increase its oil
exports by about 90% (from 240 to 450
million tones) and its gas exports by 60%
(from 200 to 316 billion cubic metres).
Future
In practice, however, these plans are very unrealistic: it is quite obvious that
Russia’s geography cannot be radically altered, either now or in the future ...
According to my team analysis and prognosis, Russia’s oil and gas export will
decrease on 10-30% in the short and medium terms (5-10 years), and probably on
50-70% in the long term (20 years) perspectives.
But this is the topic of future research and presentation ...
Thank you!
Project “Central Eurasia”, www.ceasia.ru
Еmail: [email protected] ; [email protected]
Copyright © 2013
Russia’s Capacity for Oil and Gas
Exports and its Global Impact ?
Project “Central Eurasia”, www.ceasia.ru
Еmail: [email protected] ; [email protected]
Copyright © 2013
Vladimir Paramonov, Ph.D., Tashkent, Uzbekistan
