Russia Child Nutrition Market

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Russia: Child Nutrition

Market

Analysis and Forecast to 2017

June 2012

Marketing Research

http://www.russianmarketreport.com/

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Market Research Russia: Child Nutrition Market. June 2012 (Demo-version)

Brief Overview

The report on the Russian child nutrition market contains:

Analysis and forecast of market dynamics;

Structure of consumption by region;

Analysis of domestic production, market shares of the main market players;

Analysis of exports and imports;

Assessment and forecast of market development.

Methodology:

Expert interviews with top managers of the largest players on the market;

Analysis of information, received from the main market participants;

An analysis of statistical information:

o Federal Service of State Statistics (Rosstat);

o The Federal Customs Service (FTS);

o The Ministry of Economic Development;

o The Federal Tax Service;

o Industry associations.

The report will allow you to:

1. Identify key indicators of the market, build your own business forecasts, based on

market data;

2. Evaluate the growth potential and threats in the market.

Key figures presented in the report on the Russian child nutrition market:

Volumes of production, exports and imports;

Indicators of market development;

Consumption indicators.

The report contains the consensus market forecast based on the average value of the

forecasts of market participants. As market experts are considered: manufacturers,

importers, wholesale distributors, high-volume consumers, professional associations and

unions, and trade publications. The experts, participating in the survey, are provided with

special conditions on the purchase of the reports.




Why People Choose Us

• We have been professionals in marketing research for over 9 years, and have

completed over 1000 industry studies which are updated on a regular basis.

• We collect data via expert interviews with market participants. Industry experts

verify all secondary information used in the report.

• We have an extensive database of economic information in almost every sector of

the economy. Cross-analysis of related industries enables our clients to get a

complete picture of the market of interest.

• Our own research methodology guarantees the consistently high quality of our work.

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Research Design

The purpose of the study is to analyze the state of the Russian child nutrition market and

build a forecast of the industry in the medium term.

Geography of the research: Russia

Methodology

1. Analysis of secondary market data:

Secondary data refers to data from the Internet (industry portals, competitors’ sites,

shopping sites, articles and reviews, reference materials), specialized publications, state and

private media companies, marketing agencies, commercial databases, “IndexBox

Marketing” own research.

2. Analysis of Materials from Market Participants (price lists, brochures, etc.):

Data collection from market participants is needed to analyze the specifics of the market

and the parties involved in it, their pricing and assortment policy. Data on market

participants is gathered during the analysis of secondary information, and also by sending

requests for price lists and other presentation materials.

3. Expert Interviews with Market Participants

The analysis of secondary information is completed by expert interviews with

representatives of market participant companies – manufacturers and trading companies.

Our approach to the estimation

The consensus market forecast is the average value of the forecasts of market participants

(experts).

Experts

As market experts are considered: manufacturers, importers, wholesale distributors, high-

volume consumers, professional associations and unions, and trade publications. Expert

opinions are collected during telephone interviews conducted by IndexBox on a regular

basis (the standard is every six months, but can be more often, based on a special request

or under conditions of high volatility in the market). IndexBox has created an extensive

database of experts within key industries. The experts, participating in the survey, are

provided with special conditions on the purchase of the reports.




Accuracy of forecasts

The accuracy of forecasts is verified by experts in the given industry, based on the historical

period (3 years). In accordance with this accuracy, each expert weighs out the forecasts to

create the overall average forecast

Indicators

1. Consumption: Consumption is the main index estimated by our experts and features

the dynamics of consumption in real terms in the short to medium term. Experts give

an estimate of the potential volume of consumption in accordance with their

expectations and production plans (for manufacturers).

2. Internal production: It is based on the projected volume of consumption and production

capacity in any given industry, assessing, of course, and factoring in the dynamics of

domestic production.

3. Imports and Exports: Takes into account the retrospective dynamics of export-import

operations, strengths and weaknesses of the domestic production, changes in

legislation, the macroeconomic situation in the countries of the supplier (beneficiary) of

a product, an assessment of the dynamics of imports and exports.




Table of Contents 1. Executive summary

2. Research design

3. Classification of child nutrition

4. Technology of production of child nutrition

5. Characteristics of the Russian child nutrition market in 2008 – 2011. Forecast

for 2012 - 2017

5.1. Volume and dynamics of the Russian child nutrition market in 2008 – 2011.

Forecast for 2017

5.2. Structure of the child nutrition market: production, exports, imports, consumption

5.3. Level of concentreation of production and characteristics of competition on the

market

6. Characteristics of the domestic production of child nutrition in 2008 - June 2012

6.1. Volume and dynamics of the production of child nutrition in 2008 - June 2012

6.2. Structure of production of child nutrition by regions of the Russian Federation

6.3. Manufacturing capacities of the enterprises and their level of loading

6.4. Main manufacturers of child nutrition and their corresponding market shares

6.4.1. LLC “Predpriyatie”

6.4.2. OJSC “Vimm-Bill-Dann”

6.4.3. OJSC “Experimental-canned Food Factory Lebedyanskiy”

6.4.4. OJSC “Petmol”

6.4.5. CJSC “First Milk Company”

6.4.6. OJSC “Kemerovo Milk Factory”

6.4.7. OJSC “Azovskiy Factory for Child Nutrition”

6.4.8. Group of companies “Sivma”

6.4.9. LLC “Nidan – Gross”

6.4.10. LLC “First Factory for Child Nutrition”

6.4.11. Group “Nutritech”

6.4.12. OJSC “Sady Pridonya”

6.5. Investment projects in the industry

7. Characteristics of the prices of child nutrition

7.1. Dynamics of manufacturers’ prices of child nutrition in 2008 - June 2012

7.2. Comparison of manufacturers’ prices by Federal Districts of the Russian

Federation

8. Characteristics of the imports of child nutrition to the Russian market

8.1. Volume and dynamics of the imports of child nutrition

8.2. Manufacturing countries, leading suppliers of the imports of child nutrition to the

territory of the Russian Federation

8.3. Foreign companies, manufacturers of the child nutrition, imported to the Russian

Federation

8.4. Russian companies, recipients of the imports of child nutrition

8.5. Structure of the imports of child nutrition by regions of the Russian Federation




9. Characteristics of the Russian exports of child nutrition

9.1. Volume and dynamics of the Russian exports of child nutrition

9.2. Recipient regions of the Russian exports of child nutrition

9.3. Manufacturing companies, supplying child nutrition for exports

9.4. Sending regions of the Russian exports of child nutrition

10. Factors, influencing the development of the child nutrition market

10.1. Level of welfare of the population

10.2. Demographic situation in the Russian Federation

11. Characteristics of the consumption of child nutrition

11.1. Volume and dynamics of the consumption of child nutrition in 2008 – 2011.

Forecast for 2012 - 2017

11.2. Volume and structure of the consumption of child nutrition by Federal Districts of

the Russian Federation

11.3. Balance between production and consumption of child nutrition in 2008 - 2011

12. Forecast for development of the child nutrition market in 2012 - 2017

12.1. Evaluation of the potential volume of supply of child nutrition in 2012 - 2017

12.2. Evaluation of the development of the child nutrition market after Russian’s

accession to the WTO

Appendix 1. Financial and economic indicators of the industry

Appendix 2. Profiles of the leading manufacturers




Data, presented in tables

• Dynamics of the child nutrition market in 2008-2017

• Production of child nutrition in 2008 - June 2012 , in thousands of tons

• Volume of production of child nutrition by types in January - June 2012, in

thousands of tons

• Production of child nutrition by Federal Districts of the Russian Federation in 2007 -

June 2012 , in thousands of tons

• Usage of average annual capacities for the production of child nutrition in 2008 -

2011 by regions of the Russian Federation, in %

• Average manufacturers’ prices of child nutrition in the Russian Federation in January

2007 - June 2012

• Volume of the imports of child nutrition by manufacturing countries in 2011, in

thousands of tons

• Volume of the imports of child nutrition by manufacturing companies in 2011, in

thousands of tons

• Volume of the imports of child nutrition in the Russian Federation by importing

companies in 2011, in thousands of tons

• Volume of the imports of child nutrition by recipient regions of the Russian

Federation in 2011, in thousands of tons

• Volume of the Russian exports of child nutrition by recipient countries in 2011, in

thousands of tons

• Volume of the Russian exports of child nutrition by manufacturing companies in

2011, in thousands of tons

• Volume of the Russian exports of child nutrition by sending regions in 2011, in

thousands of tons

• Dynamics of the disposable resources of households (per 100 people) in the Russian

Federation in 2000- 2011, in thousands of RUR

• Differentiation of the incomes of the population in 2005 - 2011

• Deviation from the income of the population by Federal Districts of the Russian

Federation from the average for Russia in 2004 - 2011

• Consumption of child nutrition in 2011, in thousands of tons

• Average manufacturers’ and importers’ prices of child nutrition in the Russian

Federation in June 2012

• Assortment of child nutrition in Moscow retail chains

• Segmentation of sales of child nutrition by price segment

• Chain of forming the value of child nutrition by sales channels




Data, presented in figures

• Volume of supply on the child nutrition market in 2008-2017

• Production of child nutrition in 2009 - June 2012 , in thousands of tons

• Production of child nutrition in January 2008 - June 2012, in %, to the analogical

period of the previous year

• Production of child nutrition in 2005 - 2011 , in thousands of tons

• Structure of production of child nutrition in January - June 2012 by types, in

thousands of tons

• Structure of production of child nutrition by Federal Districts of the Russian

Federation in January - June 2012

• Structure of production of child nutrition by Federal Districts of the Russian

Federation in 2005 - 2011

• Index of the average manufacturers’ prices of child nutrition in the Russian


• Index of the average manufacturers’ prices of child nutrition in the Russian


• Dynamics of the average manufacturers’ prices of child nutrition in the Russian

Federation in January 2009 -June 2012, deviation in %, to the analogical period of the

previous year

• Comparison of the average manufacturers’ prices of child nutrition by Federal

Districts of the Russian Federation, in June 2012

• Dynamics of the imports of child nutrition in the Russian Federation in January- June

2012, in thousands of tons

• Structure of the imports of child nutrition in the Russian Federation by

manufacturing countries in 2011

• Structure of the imports of child nutrition in the Russian Federation by

manufacturing companies in 2011

• Structure of the imports of child nutrition in the Russian Federation by importing

companies

• Structure of the imports of child nutrition by regions of the Russian Federation in

2011

• Dynamics of the Russian exports of child nutrition in 2011, in thousands of tons

• Structure of the Russian exports of child nutrition by recipient countries in 2011

• Structure of the Russian exports of child nutrition by manufacturing companies in

2011

• Structure of the Russian exports of child nutrition by sending regions in 2011

• Dynamics of consumption of child nutrition in the Russian Federation in 2009 - 2017

, in thousands of tons

• Distribution of the total volume of monetary resources of the population in 2011 by

groups

• Average deviation of the per capita income by Federal Districts of the Russian

Federation from the average for Russia in 2000-2011




• Shares of the disposable monetary resources by Federal Districts of the Russian

Federation to the average for Russia

• Dynamics of consumption of child nutrition in the Russian Federation in 2007 - 2017

, in thousands of tons

• Dynamics of consumption of child nutrition in Russia in 2011

• Consumption of child nutrition by Federal Districts of the Russian Federation in 2011




Executive Summary*

…

The volume of supply on the Russian child nutrition market in 2012 was almost … tons,

which is …% higher than the the same figure for 2011. It should be noted that the volume

of imported products on the child nutrition market was …%.

The volume of production of child nutrition in 2012 was … tons, which is …% higher than the

volume of production in 2011.

The largest share (…%) of all child nutrition manufactured in the Russian Federation in 2012

belongs to the … Federal District.

In 2012, the import volume of child nutrition in Russia amounted to … tons in physical terms

and to … thousand USD in value terms.

In 2012, the volume of the Russian exports of child nutrition was … tons, which was equal

to … thousand USD in value terms.

…

*The information provided from this point on in this demo version is for illustrative purposes

only, so that you can get a general overview of how our reports look like. If you need more

information, you can contact us at: [email protected].

Key figures and

conclusions

about the market

mailto:[email protected]




6. Characteristics of the Russian child

nutrition market

...

6.1. Volume and dynamics of the Russian child nutrition

market in 2007 - 2012. Forecast for 2012 – 2017

The volume of supply on the Russian child nutrition market in 2012 was almost … tons,

which is …% higher than the the same figure for 2011. It should be noted that the volume

of imported products on the child nutrition market was …% of the total market.

Source: Data (“Rosstat”, “FTS”), Analysis (“IndexBox”)

Fig. 1. Volume of supply on the child nutrition market in 2008 - 2012 and

forecast for 2013 -2017, in thousands of tons (base scenario)




6.2. Structure of the child nutrition market in Russia: production,

exports, imports, consumption

The volume of imports of child nutrition in 2012 was about … tons, which was …% of the

total market volume. A more detailed analysis of the imports and exports is presented

below.

Table 6. Volume and dynamics of the child nutrition market in 2008 - 2012

and forecast until 2017, in thousands of tons

2009 2010 2011F 2012 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F

Volume of production

In units … … … … … … … … …

In %, to

the previous

year

…% …% …% …% …% …% …% …%

Volume of

exports In units

… … … … … … … … …

In %, to the

previous year

…% …% …% …% …% …% …% …%

Volume of imports

In units … … … … … … … … …

In %, to the

previous

year

…% …% …% …% …% …% …% …%

Volume of total supply

In units … … … … … … … … …

In %, to the

previous year

…% …% …% …% …% …% …% …%

Source: Data (“Rosstat”, “FTS”, Expert opinion), Analysis (“IndexBox”)




Source: Data (“Rosstat”, “FTS”, Expert opinion), Analysis (“IndexBox”)

Fig. 6. Volume and dynamics of the child nutrition market in 2008 - 2012 and

forecast until 2017, in thousands of tons

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F

Production Consumption

Exports Imports




7. Characteristics of the domestic

production of child nutrition in Russia

in 2007 - 2012

…

7.1 Volume and dynamics of child nutrition production in 2007 -

2012

In 2011, the volume of production was higher than for the analogical period of the previous

year.

Source: Data (“Rosstat”), Analysis (“IndexBox”)

Fig. 8 Child nutrition production in 2007 - 2011, in thousands of tons

Characteristics of domestic production

- Volume and dynamics by type of

product

- Production capacities

- Structure of production

- Main producers and their market shares




Source: Data (“Rosstat”), Analysis (“IndexBox”)

Fig. 9 Child nutrition production in 2011 - 2012, in thousands of tons and in %, to

the previous year




7.6 The main manufacturers of child nutrition and their

corresponding market shares

The main manufacturers of child nutrition in Russia in 2011 were Company A, Company B,

and Company C. They produced …, …, and … tons, respectively. They were followed by

Company D (… tons, equal to …% of the total production) and Company E (… tons - …%).

Table 16. Characteristics of the largest manufacturers of pig iron in Russia in 2010

- 2011, in thousands of tons

Manufacturer Region

Production

of child

nutrition, in

tons

Market

share

… … … …

… … … …

… … … …

… … … …

… … … …

… … … …

OTHERS … …

TOTAL … …

Source: Data (Company data), Analysis (“IndexBox”)

…




8. Characteristics of child nutrition prices 8.1. Dynamics of manufacturers’ prices of child nutrition

Manufacturers’ prices of child nutrition have been fluctuating a lot in the last 5 years – from … RUR/ton in 2007, through … RUR/ton in

2009 to … RUR/ton in December 2012. In 2012, the prices were lower in …, when they were equal to … RUR/ton. They reached their

highest value in …, when they were … RUR/ton, which was …% more, compared to the analogical period of the previous year.

Table 20. Average manufacturers’ prices1 of child nutrition in Russia in January 2007 – November 2012

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

In RUR/ ton

In RUR/ ton

In RUR/ ton

In RUR/ ton

In RUR/ ton

In % to analogical period of the

previous year

In % to December of the previous

year

In % to the

previous

month

In RUR/ ton

In % to analogical

period of the previous

year

In % to December of the previous

year

In % to the

previous

month

January … … … … … …% …% …% … …% …% …%

February … … … … … …% …% …% … …% …% …%

March … … … … … …% …% …% … …% …% …%

April … … … … … …% …% …% … …% …% …%

May … … … … … …% …% …% … …% …% …%

June … … … … … …% …% …% … …% …% …%

July … … … … … …% …% …% … …% …% …%

August … … … … … …% …% …% … …% …% …%

September … … … … … …% …% …% … …% …% …%

October … … … … … …% …% …% … …% …% …%

November … … … … … …% …% …% … …% …% …%

December … … … … … …% …% …% … …% …% …%

Source: Data (“Rosstat”), Analysis (“IndexBox”) 1 Manufacturers’ prices – subject to registration, as a rule, are the actual prices of produced and shipped in the current month production for the domestic market (excluding value added tax, excise duty and other taxes not included in the cost).




9. Characteristics of the imports of

child nutrition to the Russian market 9.1. Volume and dynamics of the Russian imports of child

nutrition

…

The volume of Russian imports of child nutrition in 2011 was … tons. The largest amount of

child nutrition was imported in …, when were imported … tons.

Table 22. Dynamics of the imports of child nutrition in the Russian Federation

in January-December 2011, in tons

Month Quantity, in thousands of tons In %, to the previous month

January …

February … …%

March … …%

April … …%

May … …%

June … …%

July … …%

August … …%

September … …%

October … …%

November … …%

December … …%

Total …

Source: Data (“FTS”), Analysis (“IndexBox”)





Fig. 18. Dynamics of the imports of child nutrition in the Russian Federation in

January-December 2011, in tons

9.2. Manufacturing countries, leading suppliers of the imported

child nutrition on the territory of the Russian Federation

Country A was the leader in terms of imports of child nutrition (in physical terms) in 2011,

with a share of …% of the total. The country imported … tons of child nutrition in 2011. The

second place was taken by Country B, which in 2011 imported … tons of child nutrition (a

share of …%, respectively). In the third place was Country C with a share of …%.





Fig. 20. Structure of the imports of child nutrition in the Russian Federation by

manufacturing countries in 2011 in physical terms

Table 24. Volume of the imports of child nutrition in the Russian Federation by

manufacturing countries in 2011, in tons

Country of origin Net weight, in tons Share, in %

Country A … …%

Country B … …%

Country C … …%

Country D … …%

Country E … …%

OTHERS … …%

TOTAL … …%


9.3. Foreign companies, manufacturers of the child nutrition,

imported to the Russian Federation

Company A was the leader in terms of imports of child nutrition (in physical terms) in 2011,

with a share of …% of the total. The company imported … tons of child nutrition in 2011.

The second place was taken by Company B, which in 2011 imported … tons of child nutrition

(a share of …%, respectively). In the third place was Company C with a share of …%.

25.0%

20.8%

16.7%

12.5%

8.3%

16.7%

Country A

Country B

Country C

Country D

Country E

OTHERS





Fig. 22. Structure of the imports of child nutrition in the Russian Federation by

manufacturing companies in 2011 in physical terms

Table 26. Volume of the imports of child nutrition in the Russian Federation by

manufacturing companies in 2011, in tons

Manufacturing company Net weight, in tons Share, in %

Company A … …%

Company B … …%

Company C … …%

Company D … …%

Company E … …%

OTHERS … …%

TOTAL … …%


25.0%

20.8%

16.7%

12.5%

8.3%

16.7%

Company A

Company B

Company C

Company D

Company E

OTHERS




10. Characteristics of the Russian

exports of child nutrition 10.1. Volume and dynamics of the Russian exports of child

nutrition

…

The volume of Russian exports of child nutrition in 2011 was … tons. The largest amount of

child nutrition was exported in …, when were exported … tons.

Table 31. Dynamics of the exports of child nutrition in the Russian Federation

in January-December 2011, in tons

Month Quantity, in thousands of tons In %, to the previous month

January …

February … …%

March … …%

April … …%

May … …%

June … …%

July … …%

August … …%

September … …%

October … …%

November … …%

December … …%

Total …






Fig. 27. Dynamics of the exports of child nutrition in the Russian Federation in

January-December 2011, in tons

10.2. Recipient countries of the Russian exports of child nutrition

In 2011, the main recipient country of the Russian exports of child nutrition was Country A.

Its share in physical terms was …%. It was then followed by Country B (…%) and Country C

(…%). To Country D and Country E were exported …% and …%, respectively. The combined

share of the other countries is …%.





Fig. 29. Structure of the Russian exports of child nutrition by recipient countries in

2011 in physical terms

Table 33. Volume of the Russian exports of child nutrition by recipient countries in

2011, in tons

Recipient country Net weight, in tons Share, in %

Country A … …%

Country B … …%

Country C … …%

Country D … …%

Country E … …%

OTHERS … …%

TOTAL … …%


…

25.0%

20.8%

16.7%

12.5%

8.3%

16.7%

Country A

Country B

Country C

Country D

Country E

OTHERS




12. Characteristics of consumption

of child nutrition 12.1. Volume and dynamics of consumption of child nutrition

in 2008 - 2012. Forecast for 2013 - 2017

The volume of consumption of child nutrition in 2012 was … tons, which was …% more,

compared to 2011. In 2011 was noted the largest drop in the consumption of child nutrition

in recent years - a decline of …% to … thousand tons. Another decline in recent years was

observed in 2009, when the growth rate was …%, compared to 2008. At the end of 2012,

the consumption of child nutrition almost reached the level in 2010, but the growth is not

yet possible to reach the pre-crisis levels of 2007 - 2008.

According to forecasts, the favorable development of the consuming industries can help

consumption of child nutrition increase in the next few years with rates of …-…% annually.

Thus, by 2017, the consumption can reach … million tons. The demand for child nutrition in

the country will be met, as before, by the Russian manufacturers, who account for over …%

of the market.

Source: Data (“Rosstat”, expert opinion), Analysis (“IndexBox”)

Fig. 40. Dynamics of consumption of child nutrition in the Russian Federation

in 2008 – 2012 and forecast until 2017, in thousands of tons




12.2. Structure of consumption of child nutrition by industries

Currently, the largest shares in the consumption of child nutrition are taken by Industry A

(…%) and Industry B (…%). Industry C accounts for about … of the market, while Industry

D consumes about …% of the child nutrition in Russia.

Source: Data (“Rosstat”, expert opinion), Analysis (“IndexBox”)

Fig. 42. Structure of consumption of child nutrition by industries in 2012

35%

37%

10%

8%

10% Industry A Industry B

Industry C Industry D

Others




12.3. Balance between production and consumption of child

nutrition

In the forecasted balance between production and consumption are used estimates of the

consumption of child nutrition and projections for increase in production.

Throughout the forecast horizon, 2013 – 2017, there is a positive balance, calculated as the

difference between production and consumption. The surplus on the market, as before, will

be exported, mainly to the countries of the Customs Union, where most purchases are in

made in Kazakhstan.

Table 1. Balance between production and consumption on the child

nutrition market in Russia in 2008 - 2012 and forecast until 2017, in

thousands of tons

Indicator 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Production … … … … … … … … … …

Consumption … … … … … … … … … …

Balance

(Production-

Consumption)

… … … … … … … … … …

Source: Analysis (“IndexBox”)

Source: Analysis (“IndexBox”)

Fig. 47. Balance between production and consumption on the child nutrition

market in Russia in 2008 - 2012 and forecast until 2017, in thousands of tons

20082009

20102011

20122013F

2014F2015F

2016F2017F

Consumption

Production




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