Rural Urban Transformation in Pakistan: A spatial analysis of urbanization and

market access from 1965 - 2010

Ahmad Waqas, Helina Tilahun and Emily Schmidt

Increasing Productivity and Unleashing Growth in Pakistan

Pakistan Strategy Support Program (PSSP) First Annual Conference

Urbanization in Pakistan • Urbanization in most countries is based on

administrative boundaries, but this type of definition does not take into account urban / peri-urban networks.

• According to the Framework for Economic Growth (Planning Commission, May 2011): – 32% of the population in 1998 was considered urban – Projections suggest that over 50% will be urban in 2025

(using administrative boundary definitions)

• Planning Commission’s Task Force on urban development has emphasized the need for a policy that can transform cities as engines of growth.

• Currently, there are 9 cities in Pakistan with population exceeding 1 million

• There are approximately 75 cities with population between 100,000 and a million.

• Networks of city clusters will be the beacons of production and exchange. (Planning Commission, 2011)

Urbanization in Pakistan (2)

Connecting to Compete (Framework for Economic Growth, May 2011)

• Proximity and density create large markets for goods and services.

• Large markets allow interactivity; nurture innovation and entrepreneurship.

• Innovation, specialization, large-scale production occurs in dense clusters, where there is greater competition.

Urbanization in terms of agglomeration

• Given the administrative boundary definition of urbanization, it is difficult to include urbanization that extends outside of predefined areas.

• Urban areas are not comparable over time if administrative boundaries are changed

• With this study we provide a consistent definition of urban areas which can be compared over time, across countries and within national boundaries

Methodology • In order to standardize urbanization measurements, we

use methodology developed by Uchida and Nelson (2009) which incorporates a series of GIS data and analyses including:

• Travel time rasters, • Population density • Proximity to cities greater than 500,000

• Urban areas defined using specific thresholds: – A population density greater than 150 people per km2; – Populations located within 1 hour travel time to a city of at least

500,000 people. – City centers of at least 500,000 people

This study uses: • GIS road network data from Survey of Pakistan

(1965, 1994, 2010)

• Population data from Pakistan Census Organization (1998)

• Population density grids: – Landscan – GRUMP (Global Rural and Urban Mapping Project,

Columbia University)

• Other biophysical data to create a travel time grid: – rivers, water bodies, elevation and slope

Methodology (2)

Methodology (3) In order to measure travel time to a major city: Estimation of Travel Times • A series of GIS layers are merged into a ‘friction layer’

which represents the time required to cross each pixel

• Road type and class –Metalled – all weather –Unmetalled – all weather –Tracks – dry weather

• Waterbodies • Landcover • Slope

1965: Travel time to a city of 500k

1994: Travel time to a city of 500k

2010: Travel time to a city of 500k

Travel time

• Transportation infrastructure has expanded and improved over time

• New cities have emerged and continued to grow. – In 1965: Lahore and Karachi were the two cities

greater than 500,000 population – 2010: There are 13 cities greater than 500,000

population

Percent population connected to a major city in 2010

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Access >10 hour

Access 5 - 10 hour

Access 3 to 5 hour

Access 1 to 3 hour

Access < 1 hour

• Over 65 percent of the population in Pakistan is within 3 hours from a city of 500k (not taking into account FATA, AJK and Gilgit Baltistan)

• Some areas remain more remote than others: • 38 % of the population in Sindh is 5-10 hours from a major city • 42 % in Balochistan are 5-10 hours from a major city, and 14 % are > 10 hours

from a major city.

Agglomeration Index Once travel time is calculated to each major city for each

census year, we are able to incorporate the cost distance raster into an agglomeration index measurement:

Urban population is determined: – Within an area of a population density of at least 150 people

per km2 (calculated GRUMP and LandScan population density grids and adjusting for population growth

– Within a city of 500,000 people or within one hour travel time to a city of at least 500,000 people

Peri-urban population is determined: – Within an area of a population density of less than 150 people

per km2 and within one hour Travel Time

– Within a city of 500,000 people or within three hours travel time to a city of at least 500,000 people

1965: Agglomeration – Lahore & Islamabad

1994: Agglomeration – Lahore & Islamabad

2010: Agglomeration – Lahore & Islamabad

Pakistan: Urbanization over time

6

25 31 18

39 37

76

36 33

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1965 1994 2010

RuralPeri urbanUrban

• According to the agglomeration index, 68% of the population is urban and peri-urban

• More peri-urban people became urban as population in these areas increased; increased connectivity to urban centers also contributed to the higher percentage of the population in agglomerated areas.

Agglomeration Index Over Time Percent Urban 1965 1994 2010 Islamabad 0.0 97.3 98.3 Punjab 9.5 29.0 37.4 Sindh 5.9 32.3 35.7 Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 0.0 20.9 25.3 Balochistan 0.0 10.8 12.7 FATA 0.0 7.2 8.0 AJK 0.0 0.0 0.4 Gilgit Baltistan 0.0 0.0 0.0 Pakistan 6.0 25.2 30.8

• According to the agglomeration index, only 6 percent of the national population was urban in 1965

• By 1994, 25 percent of the population was urban. • Transportation infrastructure improved and expanded dramatically from 1965 • Islamabad grew in size to over 500k people • Lahore, Faisalabad, and Gujranwala grew into networked cities and agglomerated

corridors • By 2010, more cities (Sialkot and Sargodha) reached the 500k threshold; more rural

areas became peri-urban through improved transport links to urban centers.

Real GDP (1999) billion rupees

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

1965 1994 2010Value Added (Rs billion)

Services

Industry

Agriculture

• Agriculture remains an important and growing sector of economy, even though rural population is decreasing.

• Agriculture grew by 4.4% per year from 1994 to 2010 • Industry sector grew at 4 % per year from 1994 to 2010 • Services sector also grew significantly by 5.4% per year from 1994 to 2010

Agricultural incomes per person

• Using the Agglomeration index definition of urban and rural, rural agric income / person increased nearly 4 fold since 1965 (in real terms)

• Using the administrative definition of urban/rural areas, agricultural income per person has doubled.

• From 60's - early 80's, the green revolution technology (improved seed, fertilizer and irrigation) accounted for most of this agricultural growth

• Slower agricultural growth since then, but still substantial due to diversification into higher value products

0

5

10

15

20

1965 1994 2010

Real

Ag

GDP

(FY1

999)

/ R

ural

pop

ulat

ion

AgglomerationIndex

Administrativedivision estimates(UN projection)

Conclusion • Since 1965, Pakistan has continued to invest in key

transportation linkages which have promoted greater urbanization

• Taking into account peri-urban and urban populations (agglomeration index): urbanization in Pakistan is much greater than urban based on administrative unit definition. – UN 2010: 36% urban – Agglomeration Index 2010: 68% Peri-urban and urban

• The structure of the economy has changed as the country has urbanized; the share of services and industry increased from 59% in 1965 to 89% in 2010

• Agriculture remains an important sector in the economy – It is a dynamic sector: rural agricultural income per rural

resident has increased four-fold – For the one-third of Pakistan’s population that resides in rural

areas (using the agglomeration definition), agricultural growth is crucial for improving household welfare.

• This dramatic transformation in the economic landscape is likely to continue, with important implications for city planning

• Focus on vertical expansion rather than horizontal expansion (Framework for Economic Growth, 2011) – Vertical expansion could slow the peri-urban growth

in the future • In spite of urban growth, 1/3 of Pakistan’s

population resides in rural areas more than 3 hours travel time of urban agglomerations of 500k.

Conclusion

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