RUDDER_The Falsification Fallacy.pdf

7/27/2019 RUDDER_The Falsification Fallacy.pdf

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The Fals i f i cat ion Fal lacyC H A R L E S F . R U D D E RB e h a v io r S tu d i e s

T h e f o l l o w i n g e s s a y c h a l l e n g e s t h e c u r r e n t l y u n c o n t e s t e d i n t e r p re t a t io n o f Ka r lP o p p e r ' s a c c o u n t o f e m p i r i c a l fa l s if i a b il i ty a s n e g a t i o n b y m o d u s t o l l e n s , 1 a n dp r o p o s e s a n d a l t e r n a t i v e i n t e r p r e t a t i o n b a s e d o n P o p p e r ' s r e v i s i o n o f a n e a r l ya s s u m p t i o n t h a t s c i e n ti f ic i n f e r e n c e i s a f o r m o f " m a t e r i a l i m p l i c a t i o n " . I n T h eL o g i c o f S c i e n t if i c D i s c o v e r y 2 Popper r epor t s tha t shor t ly a f te r h i s 1934p u b l i c a t i o n o f L o g i k d e r F o r s c h u n g , Al f r e d T a r s k i l e d h i m t o r e i n t e r p r e ts c i e n ti f ic d i s c o v e r y a s a c o n s e q u e n c e o f th e f a l s i fi c a t io n o f a " d e d u c t i o n " f r o m"enta i lme nt" . 3 D.C. Ph i l l ips ' use o f Pop pe r ' s thes i s in h i s c r i t ique o f p lura l i s t ica p p r o a c h e s t o e d u c a t i o n a l s t u d i es , 4 J a m e s Ga r r i s o n ' s e n d o r s e m e n t o f P h i l l i p s 'i n t e rp r e t a ti o n o f P o p p e r , 5 a n d T h o m a s C o o k a n d Do n a l d C a m p b e l l ' s a p p e a l t oPo pp er ' s f a l s i f iab i l i ty in d e fen se of nu l l hyp othes i s t e s t ing in soc ia l r e sea rch 6 a r ep r e s e n t e d a s e x a m p l e s o f t h e a c c e p t e d i n t e r p r e t a t i o n o f P o p p e r ' s l o g i c i ne d u c a t i o n a l p h i l o s o p h y a n d r e s e a r c h . A l t h o u g h e a c h o f t h e s e wr i t e r s a p -p r o p r i a t e s P o p p e r ' s wo r k s o m e wh a t d i f f e r e n t l y , t h e i r a r g u m e n t s s h a r e t h ec o m m o n f e a t u r e o f i n t e rp r e t in g " d e d u c i b i l i t y " as " m a t e r i a l i m p l i c a t i o n " , wh i c h ,I w i ll a r g u e , le a d s t o an a m b i g u i t y wh e n P o p p e r ' s d e s c r i p t i o n o f t h e v a l i d i t y o femp i r ica l f a l s i f i ca t ion i s in te rpre ted as m o d u s t o ll e n s.

F o l l o w i n g a r e v i e w o f th e p r o b l e m a t ic c o n t e x t in w h i c h P o p p e r ' s a c c o u n t o femp i r ica l f a ls i f i ab i l ity appear s in educa t iona l s tud ies, the d i scuss ion tu rns to them o r e s p e c i f i c t a s k o f e x p o s i n g t h e a m b i g u i t y t h a t r e s u l t s f r o m s u b s t i t u t i n gmate r ia l impl ica t ion for en ta i lment in Popper ' s thes i s . Th is r e su l t , to which Ir e f e r in the t i t l e o f the paper a s the " f a l s i f i ca t ion f a l l acy" , cance l s the cor ro bora -t i v e ro l e o f P o p p e r ' s a r g u m e n t i n P h i ll i p s ' c r i t i q u e o f m e t h o d o l o g i c a l p l u r a l is ma n d C o o k a n d C a m p b e l l ' s a c c o u n t o f th e l o g i c a l v a l id i t y o f n u l l h y p o t h e s i ste s t ing , and i t r a i ses ques t ions abou t the genera l c r ed ib i l i ty o f con ven t iona la p p r o a c h e s t o e d u c a t i o n a l r e s e a rc h .

Ga r y C z i k o n o t e s t h a t , " As k e d t o f i n d a r e c u r r i n g t h e m e i n t h e i s s u e s o fE d u c a t i o n a l R e s e a r c h e r f rom the la te 1970s and th roughout the 1980s , onewo u l d h a v e l i t tl e d i ff i c u l t y d i s c o v e r i n g a c o n t i n u i n g p r e o c c u p a t i o n a n d d e b a t ec o n c e r n i n g t h e e p i s t e m o l o g y o f e d u c a t i o n a l r e s e a r c h . '7 D i s p u t e s o v e r i s su e ss u c h a s t h e r e l a ti o n s h i p b e t we e n s c i e n c e a n d p h i l o s o p h y , l o g i c a n d e x p e r i e n c e ,a n d r a t i o n a l i t y a n d i n q u i r y i n wh i c h t h e e p i s t e m o l o g i c a l d e b a t e i n e d u c a t i o n a ls tu die , s i s r o o t e d a r e n o t r e c e n t d e v e l o p m e n t s i n m o d e r n p h i l o s o p h y . T h e c u r r e n tStudies in Philosophy and Edu cation 12: 179-199, 1993.9 1993Kluw er Acade mic Pub lishers. Printed in the N etherlands.


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180 CHARLESF. RUDDERs igni f i cance of these d i sputes in e f for t s to de l inea te the fea tures of soc ia l inqui ryre la t ive to ph i losop hy and ph ys ics has , how ever , i n t ens i f ied as a consequen ce ofa "po s t -pos i t iv i s t i c" sh i f t i n ep i s t em ology and ph i losophy o f s c ience . Thi s sh i f ti s re f l ec ted in the ep i s t emologica l deba te among educa t iona l ph i losophers andresea rchers a s the e ros ion of the c red ib i l i ty of pos i t iv i s t i c account s o f there la t ion b e tween theore t i ca l va l id i ty and obse rva t ion in educa t ion a l s tud ies .

Phi l l ips has p o in ted o u t and d ocum ented the fac t tha t pos i t iv i sm i s a h i s to r i-c a l ly m u l t if a c e t e d a nd i n t e rna l ly d i ve r se m ove m e n t w h i c h c a nno t be ge ne r a ll yc r i t ic i zed w i thou t ca re fu l a t t en tion to w ha t , i f any th ing , i s cha rac te r is t ic o f them ove m e n t a s a w ho l e . 8 A n und i s pu te d t e ne t o f t he e m p i r ic a l t r a d it ion i n w h i c hpos i t iv i sm i s roo ted is the a s sumpt ion tha t modern sc ience i s a un ique exem pla ro f hum a n r a t i ona l i t y . F o l l ow i ng L oc ke , m ode r n e m p i r i c i s t s a s s um e t ha ts c ie n t if i c " know l e dge " i s a p s yc ho l og i c a l c ons e que nc e o f " l e a r n i ng" gov e r ne dby a mechanica l de te rmin i sm. Thi s be l i e f sus t a ined a t t empts , r e f l ec ted in thecur ren t sub jec t ive /ob jec t ive d i st inc tion , to i so la t e va l id f ro m inva l id exper i ences .T he a s s um pt i on t ha t pe r c e p t i on c a n s om e how d i r e c t l y c on f i r m c onc e p t ua ljudg m ents l ed to e f for t s to re s t r ic t war ran ted theore t i ca l a sse r tions to s t a t emen t stha t a re empi r i ca l ly ve r i f i ab le . Tha t i s , t he obse rva t ion of event s in the wor lde x t e rna l t o t he kn ow e r i s a s s um e d t o de t e r m i ne w ha t i s ob j e c t i ve ly " know a b l e "in con t ras t to i r ra t iona l o r p re- ra tiona l va lue judg m ents tha t a re m ere ly subjec -t ive ly "be l i eved" as a consequence of be ing rhe tor i ca l ly or emot iona l ly a t t rac -t ive . Despi t e ex ten s ive e f for t s by the ea r ly pos i tiv i st s to de fen d the redu c t ion ofsc ien t i f i c "proof" to obse rva t ion , war ran ted as se r t ab i l i ty has , s ince Hume,s tubborn ly res i s t ed an emp i r ica l iden t i ty .

An a ly t i c ph i losophy b ased o n the ve r i f i ab i li ty pr inc ip le o f mea ning se t ou t inlog ica l pos i t iv i sm and suppor ted by s tud ies in symbol i c log ic , ph i losophy ofsc ience , and ph i losophy of ma themat i cs represen t s the mos t sophi s t i ca teddefen se of equa t ing hu m an ra t iona l i ty wi th the s c i en ti f ic me tho d of inqui ry . Inan a t t empt to c i rcumvent Hume ' s skept i c i sm, ana ly t i c ph i losophy adoptedK a n t ' s a s s e r t i on o f t he p r i o r i t y o f m e a n i ng ove r t r u t h a nd a m od i f i c a t i on o fK a n t ' s d i s ti nc t ion be t w e e n a na l y ti c a nd s yn t het ic j udgm e n t s . P r oc e e d i ng f r omthe as sumpt ion tha t ve r i f i ab i l i ty d i s t ingui shes meaningfu l f rom meaningles sd i scourse a nd the an a ly t i c / syn the t i c d i s t inc t ion be tween form s o f ve r i f ica t ion ,ana ly t i c empi r i c i s t s de f ine concept s a s hypothe t i ca l "cons t ruc t s " embedded inlanguages tha t a re d educ t ive ly cons i s ten t .

A l anguag e i s a s sum ed to be ded uc t ive ly cons i s t en t a s a consequen ce of "we l lformed" s t a t ement s in the l anguage be ing cons t ruc tab le and de r ivab le f romexpl i c i t rules w hi c h , w he n f o l l ow e d , dictate t he log ica l conc lus ions of va l ida rgumen t s . Expl i c i t ru l es a re thus t aken as e l imina t ing the amb igui t ie s cha rac -t e r i s t i c o f l anguages in which the ru les have no t been , o r cannot be , madeexpl ic i t . Scient i f ic theories and hypotheses are analyt ica l ly character ized ass t a t ement s in a l anguage the ru les o f which a re expl i c i t enough to d ic t a t e arad ica l ly re s t ri c t ed range (op t ima l ly one) o f log ica l ly ve r i f i ab le conc lus ion . Th ec onc l u s i ons o f m o r e a m b i guous t ype s o f d i s c ou r se a r e r e le ga t e d t o t he r e a l m o fmeaningles s me taphys ica l o r specula t ive as se r t ion and d i smis sed as candida tes


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TH E FALSIFICATIONFALLACY 181fo r t h e o re t i c a l t r u t h . H e n c e , a n a l y t i c a rg u m e n t s a l w a y s p r e s u p p o s e s o m ec o n c e p t i o n o f h u m a n r e a s o n i n g r e s e m b l i n g l o g i c a l a n d / o r s c i e n t i f i c i n q u i ry , a ne q u a t i o n o f m e a n i n g ( r a ti o n a l p o s s i b i li t y ) a n d e m p i r i c a l l y o r f o rm a l l y verifiablep ro p o s i t i o n s , a n d a n e q u a t i o n o f k n o w l e d g e ( r a t i o n al a c t u a l it y ) w i t h e m p i r i c a l lyo r f o rm a l l y verified p ro p o s i t i o n s .

A m a j o r c o n s e q u e n c e o f t h e i n f l u e n c e o f a n a l y t ic e m p i r i c i s m i n e d u c a t i o n i st h e c u r r e n t i n s t i t u t i o n a l m o n o p o l y o f e x p e r i m e n t a l / q u a s i - e x p e r i m e n t a l r e s e a r c hd e s i g n s m o d e l e d a f t e r a n a l y t i c a c c o u n t s o f t h e r e l a t i o n b e t w e e n c o g n i t i o n a n dp e rc e p t i o n . U n d e r t h e a n a l y t i c / s y n t h e t i c d i s t i n c t i o n a n a l y t i c t e rm s a n d s t a t e -m e n t s i n e x p e r i m e n t a l h y p o t h e s e s h a v e n o e x i s te n t i a l r e f e r e n c e o r i m p o r t . T h es e m a n t i c n e u t r a l i t y o f a n a l y t i c t e rm s a n d s t a t e m e n t s m a k e s t h e i r r e f e r e n t snegot iab le . In educa t iona l re sea rch th i s re fe ren t ia l negot iab i l i ty i s re f l ec ted int h e p r a c t i c e o f operationalizing s ta tements by assigning t h e m e m p i r i c a lr e f e r e n t s . D e d u c t i v e l y v e r i f i a b l e e x p e r i m e n t a l h y p o t h e s e s a r e t h e n a s s u m e d t ob e t e n t a t i v e l y t r u e o r w a r r a n t e d i f w h a t i s a s s e r t ed w h e n e m p i r i c a l r e f e r e n t s ar es u b s t it u t e d fo r t h e t e rm s o f h y p o t h e t i c a l s ta t e m e n t s a g re e s w i t h o b s e rv a t i o n quao b s e rv a t i o n . R e d u c i n g e x p e r i m e n t a l v a l i d i t y t o l o g i c a l n e c e s s i t y a n d e m p i r i c a ld e t e rm i n i s m i s d e f e n d e d b y a n a l y t i c p h i l o s o p h e r s o f e d u c a t i o n a n d r e s e a r c h e r sa s a m e a n s o f g a i n i n g t h e o re ti c a l " c l a r it y " b y r e d u c i n g a m b i g u i t y a n d a c h i e v i n gp ra c t i c al " o b j e c t i v i t y " b y e l i m i n a t i n g v a l u e j u d g m e n t s .

T h e re i s n o d e n y i n g t h e g ro w i n g a g re e m e n t a m o n g p h i l o s o p h e r s , p h y s i c a ls c i e n t i s t s , a n d s o c i a l r e s e a r c h e r s , i n f l u e n c e d b y d e v e l o p m e n t s w i t h i n a n a l y t i cp h i l o s o p h y a n d a v a r i e t y o f " p r e " a n d " p o s t -p o s i t iv i s t " m o v e m e n t s , t h a t t h e t id eo f i n q u i ry h a s t u rn e d a g a i n s t l o g ic a l a n d e m p i r i c a l re d u c t i o n i s m . O n e c o n s e -q u e n c e o f t h e a n t i - re d u c t i o n i s t t u rn h a s b e e n a r a d ic a l u n d e rm i n i n g o f th ee m p i r i c i s t a s s u m p t i o n s u p o n w h i c h m a i n s t r e a m e d u c a t i o n a l r e s e a r c h w a sg ro u n d e d a n d w h i c h h a v e s u s t a i n e d t h e i n s ti t u ti o n a l p r io r i t y o f e x p e r i m e n t a l a n dquas i -exper imenta l re sea rch des igns . More spec i f i ca l ly , th i s sh i f t in the a s ses s -m e n t o f t h e v e r i d i c a l r o l e o f o b s e rv a t i o n i n s c i e n t i f i c i n q u i ry u n d e rc u t s t h en o t i o n t h a t o p e ra t i o n a l i z i n g t h e t e rm s o f s t a t e m e n t s i n s u re s t h e o b j e c t i v i t y o fr e s e a r c h h y p o t h e s e s , p e d a g o g i c a l o b j e c t i v e s , a n d t h e c o n t e n t a n d r e s u l t s o feva lua t ion ins t ruments .

A c o m m o n c r i t i c i s m o f m a i n s t r e a m e d u c a t i o n a l r e s e a r c h i n f l u e n c e d b ym o v e m e n t s w i t h i n a n a l y t i c p h i l o s o p h y t u rn s o n t h e a s s u m p t i o n t h a t t h e o r i e s a ss u c h h a v e n o r e f e r e n t s a n d t h e c l a i m t h a t w h e n t h e y a r e a s s i g n e d e m p i r i c a lr e f e r e n ts , o b s e rv a t i o n c a n n o t f u n c t i o n a s a t h e o ry n e u t r a l s o u rc e o f e v i d e n c e t h a ta t h e o ry i s w a r r a n te d . O n e c o n s e q u e n c e o f o p e ra t i o n a l iz i n g h y p o t h e t i c a l t e rm sa n d s t a te m e n t s i s t h a t i t i n t ro d u c e s v a l u e j u d g m e n t s w h i c h i n t h e o ry a n a l y s iss c ru p u l o u s l y e x c l u d e s . T h e v a l u a t i o n a l a c t o f a s s i g n i n g r e f e r e n t s t o t e rm sn e u t r a l i z e s fo rm a l v a l i d y a n d w e a k e n s t h e c o n d i t i o n s u n d e r w h i c h t h e o re t i c a ls ta tements can be em pi r ica l ly a s ses sed . 9 This in tu rn dr ives app l ica t ions o fa n a l y t i c e m p i r i c i s m i n s o c i a l a n d e d u c a t i o n a l r e s e a r c h p e r i l o u s l y c l o s e t o av i c i o u s c i rc l e . If , f o r e x a m p l e , t h e t e rm s o f a n a n a l y t i c d e s c r ip t i o n o f c o g n i t i v es c h e m a t a a r e a s s i g n e d e m p i r i ca l e q u i v a l e n t s 1~ - w h e n s t a te m e n t s a r e c o n v e r t e df ro m a n a l y t i c t o s y n t h e ti c - i t i s u n c l e a r h o w t h e i r e x p e r i m e n t a l a g re e m e n t w i t h


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182 C H A R L E S F . R U D D E Robservat ion (synthet ic t ruth) re la tes to thei r theoret ica l val idi ty (analyt ictruth ). 11

M oreover , s ince the c l a s ses of obse rva t ions a s s igned to d i f fe ren t educa t iona ltheor i es may, and l ike ly wi l l , be mutua l ly exc lus ive , a h i s to ry of agreementbe twee n va r ious theor i es and obse rva t ion wi l l no t suppor t the c l a im tha t a g ivent he o r y i s a m or e c om pr e he ns i ve o r a de qua t e a c c oun t o f w ha t i t pu r po r t s t oexpla in than any o the r . W hen theor i es represen t d i f fe ren t in i ti a l concept ions o feduca t iona l phenomena such as in t e l l igence , knowledge , l ea rn ing , ap t i tude ,ach ievement , c rea t iv i ty , mot iva t ion , e t c . and iden t i fy d i f fe ren t s e l ec t ions andin te rpre ta t ions of event s tha t qua l i fy as ins t ances or ind ices of these pheno m ena ,no agreement be tween a da ta s e t and i t s re spec t ive theory can se t t l e d i sputesabout which i f any theory represen t s a super ior in i t i a l concept ion of educa t iveevents .These and re l a t ed c r i t i c i sms of ana lys i s suppor t the conc lus ion tha t anideologica l b i as w hich in fec t s the s e l ec t ion and in te rpre ta tion of emp i r ica l da tamakes a l l t heore t i ca l c l a ims empi r i ca l ly "underde te rmined" .12 Many havef u r t he r c onc l ude d t ha t e m p i r i c a l unde r de t e r m i n i s m l e a ve s t he he ge m ony o fexper imenta l /quas i -exper imenta l s tra t eg ies in edu ca t iona l re sea rch u nw arran tedand jus t if i e s a p lura l i st i c to l e rance o f a v a r i e ty o f re sea rch s t ra t eg ies com m i t t edto a cor responding va r i e ty of equa l ly underde te rmined theor i es , da ta s e t s , andforms of re sea rch-based pedagogica l p rac t i ce . Ana ly t i c empi r i c i s t s havegenera l ly opposed p lura l i s t i c approaches to educa t iona l s tud ies , p r inc ipa l ly onthe ground tha t me thod ologica l p lura l i sm leads to an un tenable ep i s t emologica lrelat iv ism . 13

In Conjectures and Refutations 14 a nd h i s Autobiography 15 Popper iden t i f i e sh i s s tud ies in ep i s t em ology and ph i losophy o f s c ience wi th deve lopm ent s which ,s ince the l a t e twent i e s , have e ro ded the c red ib i l ity of ana ly t i c ep i s t emolog y as aconsequ ence o f re in te rpre ta tions of the re l a tion be tween theory and obse rva t ionprovo ked b y re l a t iv i ty and quan tum m echanics . 16 In the accum ula t ing agreem entbe tween resea rch and E ins te in 'S a l t e rna t ive to Newton ' s theory of g rav i t a t ion ,Popper s aw a grea t d i spa r i ty be tween the " rev i sab i l i ty" of theore t i ca l phy s icsand theore t i ca l s tud ies in psychology and po l i t i ca l ph i losophy. Popper wasi m pr e s s e d no t s i m p l y by w ha t he t ook t o be t he f a l s if i c at i on o f N e w t o n ' s t he o r ybut a l so , and mo re pa r t i cu la rly , by the fa l s i f iab i l i ty of E ins te in ' s the ory in theeven t tha t fac t s cont ra ry to i ts p red ic t ions should b e obse rved . 17 In Pop per ' sop in ion , the theor i es o f F reud , Adle r , and Marx , bu t t re s sed by ad hoc conjec -tures tha t expla in away every theore t i ca l ly unant i c ipa ted deve lopment , a reunfa l s i f iab le by any tu rn of event s . Be l i ev ing th i s to be ev iden ce of a fund am en-ta l and i r reconc i l ab le d i f fe rence be tween phys ica l and soc ia l inqui ry , Poppera t t empted to formula te a c r i t e r ion of "demarca t ion" which would d i s t ingui shscient i f ic f rom extra-sc ient i f ic inves t igat ion s .P oppe r c l a im s t o ha ve d i sc ove r e d a nd s o lve d " H um e ' s p r ob l e m " , by w h i c h hem eans tha t he i s the f i rs t to s ee tha t the problem of em pi r i ca l va l id i ty (Hum e, sproblem) is logical and hence d i s t ingui shable f rom, and so lvable in a mannerindependent o f , t he psychological m i nd / body p r ob l e m ( D e s c a rt e s ', L o c ke ' s ,


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THE FALSIFICATIONFALLACY 183B e rk e l e y ' s a n d K a n t ' s p ro b l e m ) . 18 P o p p e r ' s a t t e m p t t o s o l v e t h e l o g i c a l p ro b l e mo f e m p i r i c a l v a l i d i t y w i t h o u t r a is i n g t h e p s y c h o l o g i c a l p ro b l e m o f d e s c r i b i n g t h eo r i g i n a n d d e v e l o p m e n t o f c o n c e p t s a n d t h e i r r e l a t i o n t o p e r c e p t i o n s h a rp l yd i s ti n g u i s h es h i s w o rk f ro m p o s i t i v is m a n d a n a l y t i c e m p i r i c i s m .

In s h o r t , P o p p e r ' s epistemological d i s t i n c t i o n b e t w e e n s c i e n t i f i c a n d n o n -s c i e n t i f i c c o m m u n i t i e s o f i n q u i ry i s e n t i r e l y l o g i c a l a n d i s n o t o f f e r e d a s a ne x p l a n a ti o n o f cognition. 19 U n l i k e t h e v e r i f i a b i l i t y p r i n c i p l e w h i c h p u rp o r t s t od i s ti n g u i s h v a l i d f ro m i n v a l id experiences, P o p p e r ' s d e m a rc a t i o n o n l y a p p li e s totheoretical arguments. A t a n y t i m e a n d fo r a v a r i e t y o f r e a s o n s , P o p p e r n o t e s ,r a t io n a l l y c o m p e t e n t in d i v i d u a ls s u c h a s E i n s t e in a n d B o h r m a y o r m a y n o t f i n dc u r r e n t s c i e n t i f i c c o n c l u s i o n s c o n v i n c i n g . F u r t h e rm o re , h e a rg u e s , e m p i r i c a lf a l s if i c a ti o n i s d e d u c t i v e l y v a l i d w h i l e e m p i r i c al v e r i f i c a ti o n i s n o t . P o p p e r t h u siden t i f i e s fa l s i f i ab i l i ty a s a va l id and d i s t inc t ive cha rac te r i s t i c o f phys ica ltheor ie s , and makes i t h i s c r i t e r ion for d i s t inguish ing sc ien t i f i c f rom non-sc ien t i f i c s t a tements - the fo rm er a re emp i r ica l ly fa ls i f i ab le and the l a t t e r a renot .

C o n c e d i n g t h e f a i l u r e o f a n a l y t i c a t te m p t s t o d e f e n d t h e v a l i d i ty o f e m p i r i c a lv e r i f ia b i l it y , P h i l li p s a n d C o o k a n d C a m p b e l l e n l i s t P o p p e r ' s a c c o u n t o ff a l si f ia b i l it y i n d e f e n s e o f m o d e ra t e t h e o re t ic a l a n d p r a c t i c a l i n t e rp r e t a ti o n s o fth i s deve lopment . Subs t i tu t ing fa l s i f i ab i l i ty fo r the t rad i t iona l ana ly t i c ro le o fv e r i f i a b i l i t y i n p h i l o s o p h y o f e d u c a t i o n a n d r e s e a r c h , P h i l l i p s a t t e m p t s t or e c o n s t ru c t a n a n a l y t ic d e f e n s e o f m e t h o d o l o g i c a l m o n i s m , z ~ M a k i n g t h e s a m es u b s t i t u t i o n , C o o k a n d C a m p b e l l , r e j e c t i n g t h e c l a i m t h a t t h e o r i e s c a n b ee x p e r i m e n t a l l y v e r i f ie d fo r th e w e a k e r c l a i m t h a t t h e y c a n o n l y b e e l i m i n a t e d b ye m p i r i c a l f a l s i f i c a t i o n , r e a rg u e t h e c o n v e n t i o n a l c a s e fo r e x p e r i m e n t a l / q u a s i -e x p e r i m e n t a l r e s e a r c h d e s i g n s.

P h i ll ip s , w h o s e w o rk i s o p p o s e d t o w h a t h e s e e s a s t h e s p e c t e r o f r e l a t iv i s minheren t in ca l l s fo r p lura l i s t i c approaches to educa t iona l re sea rch , ins i s t s tha tt h e c o n c l u s i o n s w h i c h c r i t i c s o f t r a d i t i o n a l e d u c a t i o n a l r e s e a r c h h a v e d r a w nf ro m l e g i t i m a t e o b j e c t i o n s t o a n a l y t i c e m p i r i c i s m a r e t o o e x t r e m e . 21 With thec r i t i c s o f ana lys i s Ph i l l ips agrees tha t obse rva t ion and exper imenta t ion a ret h e o ry i m p re g n a t e d a n d , h e n c e , d o n o t p ro v i d e u n e q u i v o c a l c r i ti c a l te s ts o f t h et ru t h o f s c i e n t i f i c h y p o t h e s e s a n d t h e o r i e s . B u t , a c k n o w l e d g i n g t h e t h e o ryd e p e n d e n c e o f " O " s t a te m e n t s , h e arg u e s , o n l y r e e m p h a s i z e s s o m e t h i n g w ea l r e a d y k n e w , n a m e l y , t h e u n i v e r sa l f a l li b il i ty o f c o g n i t i o n . W e h a v e n o g ro u n d sfo r absolute c o n f i d e n c e in t h e r e s u l ts o f i n q u i ry - w e a r e i r r e d e e m a b l y f a ll i b le .T h i s , h o w e v e r , m e re l y u n d e r s c o re s t h e e s t a b l i s h e d i m p o r t a n c e o f s u b m i t t i n ghyp othe ses and theor ie s to s t r i c t log ica l t e st s:

It seems to me that, while any conclusions we reach on the basis of evidence mustalways be held les s than absolutely, the logic of experimentation is sound and themethod is probably the least controversial one in the researcher's armament. The


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184 CHARLES F. RUDDERclassic source , o f course , is B ook I I I , Chap te r V I I I o f M i l l 's System of Logic, and themo s t f amous i t em i s h is "m ethod o f d if fe rence"The quest ion that is open for discussion is not the logic , but ra ther what can becon clud ed from a successful (or eve n an unsuccessful) experiment. 22

H e r e P h i ll ip s s i m p l y e n d o r s e s t h e p o p u l a r b e l i e f th a t l e g it i m a t e c r i t i ci s m s o fa n a l y t ic e m p i r i c is m d o n o t c h a l l e n g e t h e l o g i c o f e x p e r i m e n t a t i o n a n d a r e t h u sr e s t r i c t e d t o i t s f a i l u r e t o a c c o u n t f o r w h a t c a n b e v a l i d l y c o n c l u d e d f r o ml o g i c a ll y s o u n d e x p e r i m e n t s.

P h i ll ip s t u rn s t o P o p p e r f o r a n a c c o u n t o f t h e f a il u re o f a n a l y ti c e m p i r i c i s m t oe x p l a i n t h e r o l e o f o b s e r v a t i o n i n s c ie n t i f ic d i s c o v e r y . P h i l li p s a c c e p t s P o p p e r ' sc l a i m t h a t t h e c r i t i c a l f l a w i n l o g i c a l p o s i t i v i s m a n d l i n g u i s t i c a n a l y s i s i s t h ea s s u m p t i o n t h a t s c i e n t i f i c c o n c l u s i o n s c a n b e e m p i r i c a l l y a n d e x p e r i m e n t a l l yverified. E m p i r i c a l v e r i f i c a t i o n , P h i l l i p s a r g u e s , f a l l s b e f o r e t h e l o g i c a l f a l l a c y" a f f i r m i n g t h e c o n s e q u e n t " :

Another problem ar ises i f the tes t has posi t ive resul ts . For as a point of logic , theposi t ive resul t does not give unequivocal support to the theory or hypothesis undertest ; the fo rm of inference involv ed is "aff i rming the con sequen t" wh ich is fal lacious.I f f rom some theory (T) it i s deduced tha t some conseq uence wi l l fo l low under ce r ta incondit ions , and i f the tes t is carr ied out and C is found to occu r , it cannot be c on-cluded tha t therefore is t rue:I f T then CCThere fo re T

W hich is not valid . (C onsider "I f it i s ra ining then i t is c lou dy; i t is c lo udy ; therefore i tis raining ".) 23I n a s y n o p s i s o f P h i ll i p s ' p o s i t io n , J a m e s G a r r i s o n r e l at e s P h i l li p s ' a r g u m e n t ab i t m o r e d i r e c t l y t o an i n t e r p re t a t i o n o f t h e l o g i c a l a s s u m p t i o n s e n t a i l e d i n w h a tt h e r e s e a r c h e r w o r k i n g f r o m t h e c o n f i r m a t i o n i s t p e r s p e c t i v e i s d o i n g a n d w o u l dl ik e t o c l a i m :

Conf i rmat ion o f any th ing f rom grand un i f i ed theor ies to the humbles t hypo thes i sconsis ts in drawing a logical implicat ion f rom so m e hypothesis (H) or theory (T) tosom e empir ical-exper imental conc lusion (E) that says something l ike "I f T (o r H) ist rue then E wil l be ob served." I f E is , as a mat ter of empir ical fact , observed , theresearchers wo uld like to claim T is confirm ed or verified. Sch em atically, this patternof argume nt may be represented in proposit ional logic th is way :

P 1 T - - ) EP2 EC T

In resea rch the lo~ca l s ign " - - ) " i s usua l ly mean t to convey some necessa ryconnect ion, for instance, causal i ty . The problem is that th is schema is logical lyinval id , represent ing wh at is com m on ly cal led "the fa l lacy of aff i rming the con se-quent ." Premises one and two (P1 and P2) may be t rue and the conclusion (C)nonetheless false. 24

P h i l l ip s f u r t h e r a p p e a l s t o P o p p e r i n d e f e n s e o f t h e c l a i m t h a t e m p i r i c a l f a l s i f i c a -t i o n i s a l o g i c a l l y i r r e f r a g a b l e d e m o n s t r a t i o n t h a t t h e t r a d i t i o n a l a n a l y t i c


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THE FALSIFICATION ALLACY 185e m p h a s i s o n l o g i c a n d o b s e r v a t i o n w a s n o t m i s p l a c e d b u t o n l y m i s d i r e c t e d .R e p l a c i n g a t t e m p t s t o e m p i r i c a l l y v e r i f y s c i e n t i f i c h y p o t h e s e s b y e f f o r t s t oe m p i r i c a l l y f a l s i fy t h e m , P h i l li p s a r g u e s , c o n f o r m s t o t h e v a l i d n e g a t i o n o f th ea n t e c e d e n t t e r m o f a n i m p l i c a ti o n w h e n t h e c o n s e q u e n t i s f a ls e k n o w n a s m o d u st o l l e n s :

I t was by ref lect ing upo n these mat ters ( in par t) that Po pper conc luded that a l though ascient i f ic theory or hypothesis cannot be proven, i t c a n be dec i s ive ly re fu ted - onenegat ive resul t can show th at a theory is untenable . Th e logical form involv ed herewo uld be "m odu s tol lens", wh ich is valid:I f T then CN o t C

There fo re no t TThus, "I f i t i s ra ining then i t i s c loudy; i t i s not c loudy; therefore i t i s not ra ining",wh ich is lo gica lly unassailable. 25A g a i n , G a r r i s o n e n d o r s e s P h i l l i p s ' i n t e r p re t a ti o n o f P o p p e r w h e n h e s a y s :

Unl ike the schema fo r conf i rmat ion , th i s fo rm of deduc t ive reason ing known asmo d u s t o l l e n s , i s logical ly val id . S um m ing up, Popp er declares in effect that a llreasonin g is e i ther deduct ive or defective. 26

C o o k a n d C a m p b e l l 27 e n l is t P o p p e r i n d e f e n s e o f t h e c l a i m t h a t th e f a il u re o f t h ev e r i fi c a ti o n i s t p r o g r a m h a s n o t u n d e r m i n e d t h e v a l id i t y o f e x p e r i m e n t a l a n dq u a s i - e x p e r im e n t a l r e s e a r c h s t ra t eg i es . C o o k a n d C a m p b e l l s h a r e P h i ll i p s 'r e l u c t a n c e t o i n t e r a n a l y t i c e m p i r i c i s m , a n d a r e m o r e r e l u c t a n t t h a n P h i l l i p s t oa b a n d o n t h e r o le o f c o n f i r m a t i o n i n s o c ia l r e s e a rc h . W o r k i n g f r o m a n e c l e c ti cc o n c a t e n a t i o n o f " u t il i ta r i a n is m " a n d a p h e n o m e n a l i s t ic c o n c e p t i o n o f " tr u t h " ,C o o k a n d C a m p b e l l a r g u e t h a t c o n f i r m a t i o n m a y b e t a k e n a s e v i d e n c e o f" u s e f u l n e s s " , b u t i t i s n o t e v i d e n c e o f " t ru t h " . L i k e P h i ll i p s a n d G a r r i so n , C o o ka n d C a m p b e l l i d e n t if y t h e l o g ic a l v u l n e ra b i li t y o f c o n f i r m a t i o n w i t h " a f f i r m i n gt h e c o n s e q u e n t " , " T h e e r r o r o f r e f e rr i n g t o d a t a a s p r o v i n g t h e t r u t h o f a t h e o r yc a n b e s t at e d i n t e r m s o f a n o l d c l a s s o f l o g i c a l fa l la c i es s u c h a s ' a f f i r m i n g t h ec o n s e q u e n t ' , ' m o d u s t o l le n s ' [ si c] , o r ' t h e e r r o r o f t he u n d i s tr i b u t e d m i d d l et e r m ' " , 28 w h i c h t h e y i l l u s tr a t e i n a m a n n e r l o g i c a l l y i d e n t i c a l t o t h e e x a m p l e sn o t e d a b o v e :

If N ew ton 's theory A is t rue , then i t should be observe d that the t ides ha ve a per iod B,the pa th o f M ars a shape C , the t r a jec to ry o f a cannonba l l fo rm D.Observa t ion conf i rms B , C , and D.2~ere fo re N ew ton ' s theory A i s true . 29C o o k a n d C a m p b e l l d e f e n d t h e u t il it y o f s u c h i n v a l id a r g u m e n t s i n p r ac t ic a la p p l i c at i o n s o f e m p i r ic a l r e s e a r ch . T h e y t h e n t u r n t o P o p p e r i n d e f e n s e o f nu l lh y p o t h e s i s t e s t i n g w h i c h t h e y c l a i m p r o v i d e s a r i g o r o u s a n d l o g i c a l l y v a l i dm e t h o d f o r d e r iv i n g t h e e x p e r i m e n t a l a n d q u a s i - e x p e r i m e n t a l c o n c l u s i o n s ," d i s c o n f i r m e d " a n d " n o t d i s c o n f i r r n e d " :

Po ppe r 's fa ls if icationism . . . . . s tresses the am bigui ty of confirm at ion. For him,corroborat ion gives only the comfort that the theory has survived the tes t , that even


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186 CHARLES F . RUDDERa f t e r th e m o s t im p r e s s iv e c o r r o b o r a t i o n s o f p r e d i c t io n s , i t h a s o n ly a c h i e v e d t h e s t a tu so f "n o t y e t d i s c o n f i r m e d . " T h i s s ta tu s o f "n o t y e t d i s c o n f i r m e d " i s r a r e a n d p r e c io u s i na n y a d v a n c e d s c i e n c e , b u t i t i s fa r f r o m th e s t a tu s o f "b e in g t r u e . ' 3 ~

F a l s i f i c a t i o n , a s C o o k a n d C a m p b e l l i n t e r p r e t it , p r o v i d e s t h e s c i e n t i f i c a l l yi n v a l u a b l e s e r v i c e o f e l i m i n a t i o n . A m o n g t h e p l e t h o r a o f p o s s i b l y t ru e t h e o r i e sa n d h y p o t h e s e s t h a t a r e n o t e m p i r i c a l l y v e r i f i a b l e a r e s o m e , w h i c h , t h r o u g h ap r o c e s s t h e y c h a r a c t e r i z e a s " w i n n o w i n g " , c a n b e d i s c o n f i r m e d as a c o n s e -q u e n c e o f e m p i r i c a l f a ls i f i c at i o n :

I f o b s e r v a t i o n s i n c o n s is t e n t w i th B , C , a n d D a r e f o u n d , t h e s e v a l i d ly f a l s if y th e t r u tho f Ne w to n ' s t h e o r y A . T h e a r g u m e n t i s t h u s h ig h ly r e l e v a n t t o a w in n o w in g p r o c e s s ,i n wh ic h p r e d i c t i o n s a n d o b s e r v a t i o n s s e r v e t o we e d o u t t h e m o s t i n a d e q u a t e t h e o r i e s,i n c lu d in g t h e m o s t i n a d e q u a t e c a u s a l h y p o th e s e s wh ic h s e e m a t f i r s t t o " e x p l a in " ag iv e n p h e n o m e n o n . Ho w e v e r , i f th e p r e d i c t i o n s a r e c o n f i rm e d , t h e t h e o r y r e m a in s o n eo f t h e p o s s ib l e tr u e e x p l a n a t i o n s .31

I I IT h e d e s c r i p t i o n s o f t h e f a l l a c y o f e m p i r i c a l v e r i f i c a t i o n a n d t h e v a l i d i t y o ff a l s i f ic a t i o n s u m m a r i z e d a b o v e s h a r e t h e c o m m o n f e a t u r e o f t r e a t in g s c i e n t i fi ci n f e r e n c e a s a fo r m o f t h e i n f e re n c e " i f p t h e n q " o r " p i m p l i e s q " ( p D q ) k n o w na s c o n d i t i o n a l o r m a t e r i a l i m p l i c a t i o n . R e c a l l , f o r e x a m p l e , G a r r i s o n ' s r e m a r kt h a t :Co n f i r m a t io n o f a n y th in g f r o m g r a n d u n i f i e d t h e o r i e s t o t h e h u m b le s t h y p o th e s i sc o n s i s t s o f d r a w in g a l o g i c a l im p l i c a t i o n f r o m s o m e h y p o th e s i s ( H) o r t h e o r y ( T ) t os o m e e m p i r i c a l - e x p e r im e n ta l c o n c lu s io n ( E ) t h a t s a y s s o m e th in g l i k e " I f T ( o r H) i st rue then E wi l l be obse rved . ' 32T h i s e q u a t i o n f o l l o w s l o g i c a l l y f ro m t h e f a c t t h a t th e a m b i g u i t y o f a f f i r m i n g t h ec o n s e q u e n t a n d t h e v a l i d i t y o f m o d u s t o l l e n s a r e d e m o n s t r a b l e i f a n d o n l y i f th em a t e r i a l i m p l i c a t i o n " p i m p l i e s q " i s tr u e.

T a r s k i d e f i n e s i m p l i c a t i o n as a re l a t i o n b e t w e e n a s u b o r d i n a t e a n t e c e d e n t a n da s u p e r o r d i n a t e c o n s e q u e n t :I f we c o m b in e two s e n t e n c e s b y t h e wo r d s " i f . . . . t h e n . . . . " we o b t a in a c o m p o u n ds e n t e n c e w h i c h i s d e n o t e d a s a n I M P L I C A T I O N o r C O N D I T I O N A L S E N T E N C E .T h e s u b o r d in a t e c l a u s e t o wh ic h t h e wo r d " / f ' i s p r e f i x e d i s c a l l e d ANT E CE DE NT ,

a n d t h e p r i n c ip a l c l a u s e i n t r o d u c e d b y t h e w o r d " t h e n " i s c a l l e d C O N S E Q U E N T . B yasse r t ing an im pl ica t ion one asse r t s tha t i t does no t o ccur tha t the an tece den t i s t rueand the conse quen t i s fa l se .33T h e f o r m a l c o n s e q u e n c e s o f T a r s k i ' s s u b o r d i n a t e / s u p e r o r d i n a t e d i s ti n c t i o nb e t w e e n s e n t e n c e s a l s o h o l d f o r r e l a t io n s b e t w e e n s e ts o r c l a s s e s w h i c h c a n b ei l l u s tr a t e d d i a g r a m m a t i c a l l y ( F i g u r e s 1 a n d 2 ). 34

G i v e n t h e n o n - e m p t y s e t s P a n d Q , F i g u r e s 1 a n d 2 c a n b e i n t e r p r e t e d a sr e p r e s e n t i n g th e f o l l o w i n g c o n d i t io n s , h e r e a f t e r r e f e r r e d to a s C 1 , C l a , C l b ,C l c , a n d C 2:


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188 CHARLES F. RUDDERT h e v a l i d i t y o f m o d u s p o n e n s a n d m o d u s t o l le n s d e r i v e s f r o m t h e c i r c u m s t a n c et h a t i f p D q i s t r u e a n d e i t h e r p i s t r u e o r q is fa l s e, T a b l e I r e v e a l s o n e a n d o n l yo n e c o r r e s p o n d i n g c o n d i t i o n , q is tr u e o r p i s f a l s e ( l in e s 1 a n d 3 ) . S c h e m a t i -c a l l y :

modu s ponens modu s tollensp ~ q p ~ qp -~qq -~pT h e a m b i g u i t y o f a f f ir m i n g t h e c o n s e q u e n t i s a p p a r e n t i n t h e c ir c u m s t a n c e t h a ti f p D q i s t ru e a n d q i s tr u e , t h e re a r e t w o c o n t r a d i c t o r y c o r r e s p o n d i n g c o n d i -t i o n s , p i s tr u e a n d p i s f a ls e ( l i n e s 1 a n d 2 ) , m a k i n g t h e t r u t h o r f a l s it y o f pu n d e c i d a b l e ( C l b ) .

T h e L o g i c o f S c i e n ti f ic D i s c o v e r y 36, P o p p e r ' s E n g l i s h t r an s l a ti o n o f h i s L o g i kd e r F o r s c h u n g , w a s p u b l i s h e d w i t h n e w a p p e n d i c e s a n d a d d i ti o n a l f o o t n o t e s .T h e l a tt e r i n cl u d e a c o r r e c t io n o f w h a t h e c a m e t o s e e a s a n e a r li e r c o n f u s i o n o ft h e d i f f e r e n c e b e t w e e n " d e d u c i b i l i t y " f r o m " e n t a i l m e n t " a n d m a t e r i a l i m p l i c a -t i on . A t a p o i n t i n t h e o r i g i n a l w o r k w h e r e h e i d e n t i f ie s t h e f a l s i f i c a t io n o f t , i nt h e s t a t e m e n t t ~ p w h e n p i s f a l s e , a s " t h e m o d u s t o l l e n s o f c l a s s i c a l l o g i c " , 37P o p p e r a d d s a f o o t n o t e c o n c e r n i n g h i s u s e o f t h e s y m b o l " ---~ ":

In connect ion with the present passage and two la ter passages . . . in which I use thesym bol "--->", I wish to say that w hen wri ting the boo k, I w as s t i ll in a s tate o fcon fusio n abo ut the distinction betw een a conditional statement (if-then-statement;som etim es called, som ew hat misleadingly, "material imp lication ") and a statementabout deducibi l i ty (or a s ta tement asser t ing that some condi t ional s ta tement islogic ally true, or analytic, or that its antecedent entails i ts con sequ ent) - a distinctionwh ich I was taught to understand by Alfred Tarski , a few m onths af ter the publ icat ionof the book . The p rob lem i s no t ve ry re levan t to the con tex t o f th i s book ; bu t theconfu sion sh ould be pointed o ut never theless. 38P o p p e r a t t a c h e s m i n o r i m p o r t a n c e t o t h i s c o n f u s i o n b e c a u s e h e c l a i m s t o h a v en e v e r d e v i a t e d f r o m h i s o r i g i n a l c o n c e p t i o n o f fa l s if ic a t io n . F r o m t h e b e g i n n i n g ,P o p p e r a r g u e s , t h e m o d e o f f a l s i fi c a t i o n t o w h i c h h e a t t r i b u te s t h e v a l i d i t y o fs c i e n t i f i c i n f e r e n c e w a s b a s e d o n w h a t h e l a t e r c a l l s " e n t a i l m e n t " a n d n o t o nm a t e r i a l i m p l i c a t i o n .

I n l ig h t o f th i s c o r r e c t i o n , P o p p e r a d v i s e s h i s r e a d e r t o i n t e rp r e t t h e s y m b o l" ---~ " i n t h e s t a t e m e n t " t ~ p " a s " e n ta i l s " , m e a n i n g " p i s d e d u c i b l e f r o m t " o r" g i v e n t it fo l l o w s t h a t p " , a n d n o t t o i n te r p r et i t a s m e a n i n g " i f t t h e n p " o r " timplies p , , . 3 9 T h i s i n t u r n m e a n s t h a t i t c a n n o t b e u n c r i ti c a ll y a s s u m e d t h a tP o p p e r ' s r e j e c t i o n o f e m p i r i c a l v e r i f i ca t i o n i s a n in s t a n c e o f a f fi r m i n g t h ec o n s e q u e n t o f a n i m p l i c a t i o n o r t h a t h is d e s c r i p t i o n o f e m p i r i c a l f a l s i fi c a t i o n i sl o g i c a l ly e q u i v a l e n t t o n e g a t i o n b y m o d u s t o ll e ns .

N o w , a s i n d i c a t e d a b o v e , P h i l l i p s , G a r r i s o n , a n d C o o k a n d C a m p b e l l i g n o r et hi s d i s c l a im e r 4 ~ a n d c o n t i n u e t o i d e n t i f y P o p p e r ' s a c c o u n t o f s c ie n t if ic i n -f e r e n c e w i t h m a t e ri a l i m p l i c a ti o n . T h i s e q u a t i o n i s c o n t r a r y t o P o p p e r ' sd e s c r ip t i o n o f d e d u c i b i l it y a n d l e ad s t o an a m b i g u i t y w h e n P o p p e r ' s c o n t r a d i c -


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T H E F A L S IF IC A T I O N F A L L A C Y 1 8 9t io n o f a d e d u c t i o n f r o m e n t a i l m e n t i s i n t e rp r e t e d a s m o d u s t o l l e n s . T h ea m b i g u i t y r e s u l ts f r o m s u b s t it u t i n g , i n P o p p e r ' s t e r m s , t h e " t a u t o l o g i c a l "n e g a t i o n o f t h e a n t e c e d e n t t e r m i n a s t a t e m e n t w h e n t h e tr u th v a l u e o f th ec o n s e q u e n t i s g i v e n b y m o d u s t o l l e n s f o r th e " n o n - t a u t o l o g i c a l " f a l s if i c a ti o n o f as t a t e m e n t a b o u t a r e l a t i o n b e t w e e n t e r m s b y c o n t r a d i c t i o n . T h i s r e s u l t a l s od i s q u a l if i e s a t t e m p t s t o e m p i r i c a l l y t e s t t h e o r ie s w h e n t h e re l a t io n b e t w e e nt h e o r e ti c a l h y p o t h e s e s a n d e m p i r i c a l e v i d e n c e i s r e p r e s e n t e d a s t h e o r y i m p l i e so b s e r v a t i o n o n t h e s a m e g r o u n d s t h a t P h i ll ip s , G a r r is o n , a n d C o o k a n dC a m p b e l l r e j e c t e m p i r i c a l v e r i f i c a ti o n 41 b e c a u s e , l ik e a f f i r m i n g t h e c o n s e q u e n to f a n i m p l i c a t i o n , i t l e a v e s t h e t ru t h o r f a l s i t y o f t h e o r e t i c a l a s s e r t i o n s u n -d e c i d a b l e w h e n c o n d i t io n s c o n t r a r y t o w h a t i s t h e o r e t ic a l l y i n d i c a t e d a r eo b s e r v e d . T h e a m b i g u i ty c a n b e e x p o s e d b y e x a m i n i n g t h e l o gi c al c o n s e q u e n c e so f P o p p e r ' s d e s c r ip t i o n o f " e n t a i l m e n t " .

I VP o p p e r c h a r a c t e ri z e s e n t a i l m e n t a s m e t a - l in g u i s t ic , n o n - t a u t o lo g i c a l , a n d , m o r ei m p o r t a n t l y i n th e p r e s e n t c o n t e x t , a s c o n f o r m i n g t o th e i n e q u a l i t y " g r e a t e r t h a no r e q u a l t o " :

The log ica l con ten t [ o f a s t a t e m e n t p ] i s d e f in e d , w i th t h e h e l p o f th e c o n c e p t o fd e r i v a b i li t y , a s t h e c l a s s o f a l l n o n - ta u t o l o g i c a l s t a t e m e n t s w h i c h a r e d e r i v a b l e f r o mt h e s t a t e m e n t i n q u e s t i o n ( i t m a y b e c a l l e d i t s c o n s e q u e n c e c l a s s ) . S o t h e l o g i c a lc o n t e n t o f p i s at l eas t equa l t o ( i .e . g r ea t e r t han o r equa l t o ) t ha t o f a s t a t emen t q , i f qi s d e r iv a b l e f r o m p ( o r, in s y m b o l s . ' p - - 4 q,).42T O t h e s e r e m a r k s P o p p e r a d d s t h e f o o t n o te :

' p - -- 4 q ' m eans , ac co r d in g to t h is exp lan a t ion , t ha t t he cond i t i ona l s t a t em en t w i th t hea n t e c e d e n t p a n d t h e c o n s e q u e n t q i s t a u t o l o g i c a l , o r l o g i c a l l y t r e e . ( A t t h e t i m e o fwr i t i ng t he t ex t , I was no t c l ea r on t h i s po in t ; no r d id I under s t and the s ign i f i cance o ft h e f a c t th a t a n a s s e r t io n a b o u t d e d u c i b i li t y w a s a m e t a - l i n g u i s ti c o n e . . . . T h u s' p -- ~ q ' m a y b e r e a d h e re : ' p entails q , ) . 4 3

P o p p e r f u r t h e r e l a b o r a t e s a n d c l a r i f i e s t h e r e l a t i o n t h a t h e h a s i n m i n d , a n dw h i c h h e a d m o n i s h e s h i s r e a d e r n o t to c o n f l a te w i t h m a t e r i a l i m p l i c a t i o n , w h e nh e s a y s , " I f q is d e r i v a b l e f r o m p , b u t n o t p f r o m q , t h e n t h e c o n s e q u e n c e c l a s so f q m u s t b e a p r o p e r s u b - s e t o f th e c o n s e q u e n c e c l a s s o f p ; a n d p t h e n p o s s e s e st h e l a rg e r c o n s e q u e n c e c l a s s, a n d t h e r e b y t h e g r e a t e r l o g i c a l c o n t e n t ( o r l o g i c a lf o r c e ) " . 44

D e s p i t e s o m e r e s id u a l t e r m i n o l o g i c a l a m b i g u i t y , i t i s a b u n d a n t l y c l e a r t h a tP o p p e r i n t e r p r e t s e n t a i l m e n t a s a r e l a t i o n ( i n d i c a t e d b y t h e s y m b o l " - 4 " )b e t w e e n c l a s s e s u n d e r w h i c h t h e e x p r e s s i o n p --~ q i n d i c a te s t h a t t h e a n t e c e d e n tp i s s u p e r o r d i n a t e t o a s u b o r d i n a t e c o n s e q u e n t q b y v i r tu e o f t he c o n s e q u e n tb e i n g i n c l u d e d i n, o r a s P o p p e r p u t s i t a b o v e , a p r o p e r s u b - s e t o f, th e a n t e c e d e n t( F i g u r e 3 ) .

T h e r e l a ti o n b e t w e e n t h e a n t e c e d e n t a n d th e c o n s e q u e n t i n P o p p e r ' s d e s c r i p -


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19 0 CHARLES F. RUDDER

Fig. 3. p entails q (p ----)q).t i o n o f e n t a il m e n t ( F i g u r e 3 ) i n v e r t s T a r s k i ' s d e s c r ip t i o n o f m a t e r i a l i m p l i c a t i o n( F i g u r e 1 ) a s a r e l a t i o n b e t w e e n a s u b o r d i n a t e a n t e c e d e n t a n d a s u p e r o r d i n a t ec o n s e q u e n t . P o p p e r ' s a c c o u n t o f f a ls i fi a b il it y f o l l o w s d i r e ct l y f r o m c l a s si n c l u s i o n a s it i s o u t l i n e d a b o v e . I f t h e c o n s e q u e n c e c l a s s r e p r e s e n t e d b y as t a t e m e n t i n c l u d e s m e m b e r s t h a t a r e n o t i n c l u d e d i n t h e c o n s e q u e n c e c l a s sr e p r e s e n t e d b y a m o r e i n c l u s i v e s t a t e m e n t , t h e l e s s i n c l u s i v e s t a t e m e n tc o n t r a d i c t s , 45 a n d m a y b e i n t e r p r e t e d a s f a l s if y i n g , th e m o r e i n c l u s i v e s t a t e m e n t .

P o p p e r i l l us tr a te s d e d u c i b i l it y f r o m e n t a i lm e n t b y c o m p a r i n g t h e s t a te m e n t s :r : " A l l o rb i t s o f h e a v e n l y b o d i e s a r e e l l ip t i c a l. "s : "A l l o r b i t s o f p l a n e t s a r e e l l ip t i c a l . ' '4 6

B e c a u s e t h e s t a t e m e n t " A l l o rb i t s o f p l a n e t s a r e e ll i p ti c a l. " , a s P o p p e r p u t s , it" s a y s l e s s " t h a n t h e s t a t e m e n t " A l l o r b it s o f h e a v e n l y b o d i e s a r e el l ip t i c a l. " , s isd e d u c i b l e f r o m r , a n d h e n c e , m a y f a l s i fy r , " b u t n o t v i c e v e r s a . '4 7 S i n c e t h ec o n s e q u e n c e c l a ss i n d i c a te d b y t h e s t a te m e n t r , " A l l o r b i ts o f h e a v e n l y b o d i e sa r e e ll i p ti c a l ." , i n c l u d e s - i s g r e a t e r t h a n o r e q u a l t o - t h e c o n s e q u e n c e c l a s s o ft h e s t a t e m e n t s a b o u t p la n e t s , i f i t i s a s s u m e d o r o b s e r v e d t h a t th e o r b i t s o f s o m ep l a n e t s a r e n o t e l l i p t i c a l ( t h a t i s , t h a t w h a t i s a s s e r t e d i n t h e s t a t e m e n t w i t h t h es m a l l e r c o n s e q u e n c e c l a s s i s f a l s e ) t h e l e s s i n c l u s i v e a s s e r t i o n m a y , a c c o r d i n g t oP o p p e r , b e i n t e r p r e t e d a s c o n t r a d i c t i n g a n d t h u s , f a l s i f y i n g , t h e m o r e i n c l u s i v ea s s e r t i o n ( F i g u r e 4 ) . 48

Fig. 4. Falsification o f entailment (-~(r ~ s)).N o t e t h a t t h e f a l s if i c a t i o n o f " r e n t a i l s s " ( F i g u r e 4 ) i s t h e c o n d i t i o n , s is n o t ap r o p e r s u b - s e t o f r, u n d e r w h i c h t h e s u b o r d i n a te s " i m p l i e s " t h e s u p e r o r d i n a t e r


13/21

THE FALSIFICATIONFALLACY 191i s f a l s e ( F i g u r e 2 a n d C 2 ) . N o t e f u r t h e r P o p p e r ' s c l a i m t h a t f a l s i f y i n g a s t a t e -m e n t w i l l n o t em pi r i ca l l y f a l s i f y a l e s s u n i v e r s a l o r l e s s i n c l u s i v e s t a t e m e n tw h i c h i s t h e c o n d i t i o n u n d e r w h i c h t h e l o g i c a l n e g a t i o n b y m o d u s t o l l e n s isv a l i d ( C l c ) . T h u s , f o r e x a m p l e , f a l s if y i n g th e s t a t e m e n t " A l l o r b i t s o f h e a v e n l ybodies (H) a r e e l l i p t i ca l (E ) . " does no t ru l e ou t t he poss ib i l i t y t ha t t he o rb i t s o fs o m e h e a v e n l y b o d i e s a r e e l l i p t i c a l , a n d h e n c e c a n n o t f a l s i f y t h e l e s s i n c l u s i v es t a t e m e n t " A l l o r b i ts o f p l a n e t s ( P ) a r e e l li p t ic a l " ( F i g u r e 5 ) . S i m i l a r l y , P o p p e ra r g u e s , i n d u c t i o n i s l o g i c a l l y i m p o s s i b l e , n o t b e c a u s e i t a t t e m p t s t o a f f i r m t h ec o n s e q u e n t o f a n i m p l i c a t i o n , b u t b e c a u s e t h e e m p i r i c a l t r u t h o f a s t a t e m e n tc a n n o t b e d e d u c e d f r o m a l e s s u n i v e r s a l o r i n c l u s i v e s t a t e m e n t w h i c h i s t h ec o n d i t i o n u n d e r w h i c h t h e l og i ca l i n f e r e n c e m o d u s p o n e n s i s va l i d (F igure 1 andC l a ) . F r o m t h e c o n s e q u e n c e c l a s s o f th e a s s e r t io n " A l l o r b it s o f p l a n e t s a r ee l l i p t i c a l . " , w h i c h d o e s n o t e l i m i n a t e t h e p o s s i b i l i t y t h a t t h e o r b i t s o f s o m eh e a v e n l y b o d i e s a r e n o t e l l i p t i c a l , t h e m o r e i n c l u s i v e s t a t e m e n t " A l l o r b i t s o fh e a v e n l y b o d i e s a r e e l li p t ic a l . " is n o t d e d u c i b l e ( F i g u r e 5 ) .

H

Fig. 5.P o p p e r ' s r e j e c t i o n o f e m p i r i c a l v e r i f i c a t i o n d e n i e s t h e p o s s i b i l i t y o f a r g u i n gf r o m a s u b o r d i n a t e c l a s s t o a s u p e r o r d i n a t e c l a s s w h i c h i s v a l i d u n d e r m a t e r i a li m p l i c a t i o n . H e n c e , P o p p e r a r g u e s t h a t t h e c o n t r a d i c t i o n o f a g e n e r a l s t a t e m e n tb y a c o n f l i c t i n g s t a t e m e n t w i t h a s m a l l e r o r l e s s u n i v e r s a l c o n s e q u e n c e c l a s s i st h e o n l y f o r m o f em pi r i ca l l y v a l id a r g u m e n t t h a t m o v e s f r o m p a r t ic u l a r ( a le s sinc lus ive c l a s s ) t o genera l ( a more i nc lus ive c l a s s ) , o r a s Popper pu t s i t , i n t hed i rec t i on o f i n d u c t i o n 49. I n s u m P o p p e r ' s d e s c r i p t io n o f e m p i r i c a l f a l s i f ic a t i o n a sa m o v e m e n t f r o m a s t a t e m e n t a b o u t a l e ss i n c l u s iv e c l a s s to a s t a t e m e n t a b o u t am o r e i n c l u s i v e c l a s s m o v e s i n t h e s a m e d i r e c t i o n a s m o d u s p o n e n s u n d e rm a t e r i a l i m p l i c a t i o n a n d i n t h e o p p o s i t e d i r e c ti o n f r o m m o d u s t o ll e n s.

I n t e rp r e t in g P o p p e r ' s " e n t a i l m e n t " ( E " s a y s m o r e " t h a n H ) a s t h e in e q u a li ty ,th e l o g i c a l c o n t e n t o r l o g i c a l f o r c e o f E i s g r e a t e r t h a n o r e q u a l t o t h e l o g i c a lc o n t e n t o f H ( E >_ H ) , h i s d e d u c i b i l it y f r o m " e n t a i l m e n t " c a n b e r e p r e s e n t e dsy l l og i s t i ca l l y a s a c on jun c t i on o f t he p rem ises E _> H and H >_ P ( t he l og i ca lc o n t e n t o f H i s g r e a t e r t h a n o r e q u a l t o t h e l o g i c a l c o n t e n t o f P ) , f r o m w h i c h t h econc lus ion , E _> P ( t he l og i ca l con t e n t o f E i s g r ea t e r t han o r equa l t o t he l og i ca lc o n t e n t o f P ) i s d e d u c i b l e . F a l s i fi c a t io n c a n t h e n b e r e p r e s e n t e d a s t h e n o n -t a u t o l o g i c a l c o n t r a d i c t io n o f t h e p r e m i s e E _> H b y t h e n o n - t a u t o l o g i c a l f a l s i f ic a -t i on o f t he co nc lus ion E _> P wh ich m ee t s t he t e s t f o r a va l i d sy l l og i sm .


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192 CHARLES F. RUDDERS c h e m a t i c a l l y :

E includes H = E > HH includ es P = H >__PE inc ludes P = E -> PBut :E includes P is fals e = -~ (E _> P)E includes H is fa lse = -~ (E > H )

T h e s y l lo g i s ti c f o r m o f P o p p e r ' s e x a m p l e s e t o u t a b o v e c o u l d t h u s ru n :"Is elliptical" includes "A ll orbits of heav enly bo die s""A ll orbits o f heav enly bodies" includes "A ll orbi ts o f planets""Is elliptical" includes "A ll orbits o f planets"But :So m e planetary orbits are not elliptical."Is elliptical" includ es "A ll orbits of planets" is false."Is e l lip tical" includes "A ll orbi ts of hea venly bod ies" is fa lse .

O n l y t h e c o n c l u s i o n E > P ( " I s e l l i p ti c a l " i n c l u d e s " A l l o r b i t s o f p l a n e t s " ) i sd e d u c i b l e f r o m t h e p r e m i s e s E > H a n d H > P . T h e n o n - t a u t o l o g i c a l c h a r a c t e r o ft h e a s s e r t i o n t h a t E > P i s fa l s e a n d i ts f a l s i f i c a t i o n o f t h e p r e m i s e E > H i sa p p a r e n t i n th e c o n d i t i o n s t h a t t h e f a l s it y o f E > P i s n o t d e d u c i b l e f r o m t h ep r e m i s e s , i s n o t d i c t a t e d b y p r i o r o b s e r v a t i o n , a n d c a n f a l s i f y th e p r e m i s e E > Hi f a n d o n l y i f t h e p r e m i s e H > P i s n o t f a l s if i a b le . 5 ~ I f , f o r e x a m p l e , a h i s t o r y o fo b s e r v a t i o n i n c l u d e s o n l y e l l i p ti c a l o r b i ts , t h e d i s c o v e r y o f n o n - e l l i p t i c a l o r b i t sw o u l d n o t b e l o g i c a l ly d e d u c i b l e o r d i c ta t e d b y p a s t e x p e r i e n c e . G r a n t i n g t h a tc o n s i d e r a t i o n s o t h e r t h a n o r b i t a l m o t i o n i n f l u e n c e w h a t w e a r e w i l l i n g t o c a l lp l a n et s , w e m u s t n e v e r t h e l e ss d i s c o u n t s o m e p a s t e x p e r i e n c e i f w e a c c e p t ad e v i a t i o n f r o m p r i o r e x p e r ie n c e o f o r b it s a n d d e c i d e t h a t s o m e o r b i t s a re n o te l li p ti c a l. W e c o u l d , f o r i n s t a n c e , s a v e t h e h y p o t h e s i s b y r e f u s i n g t o i n c l u d eo b j e c t s w i t h n o n - e l l i p t i c a l o r b i t s a m o n g t h e t h i n g s w e c a l l p l a n e t s , w h i c h , a s w ew i l l s e e b e l o w , i s t h e o n l y o p t i o n p e r m i t t e d u n d e r t h e t a u t o l o g i c a l n e g a t i o n o ft h e a n t e c e d e n t t e r m i n a n i m p l i c a t i o n b y modus to l lens .

C o n s i d e r , f o r e x a m p l e , t h e d a t u m " T h e o r b i t o f q ' i s n o t a n e l li p s e ." a n d t h es y l l o g i s m ( F i g u r e 6 ) :

Th e orbi t of every planet (P ) is e ll ip t ical (E)E v e r y q i s a m e m b e r o f PT h e o r b it o f e v e r y q i s a m e m b e r o f ED a t u m : T h e o r b it o f q ' i s n o t a m e m b e r o f E


15/21

THE FALSIFICATION ALLACY 193I n t h e l o g i c o f c l as s e s t h e f u n d a m e n t a l r e la t io n s a r e h a v i n g o r n o t h a v i n gm e m b e r s a n d b e i n g o r n o t b e i n g a m e m b e r o f a n o th e r c la ss . F o l l o w i n g P o p p e r ,t h e d a t u m " T h e o r b i t o f q" is n o t E . " r a i s e s a q u e s ti o n , n a m e l y , w h e t h e r t oi n c l u d e q ' i n th e c l a s s P ( F i g u r e 6 ) . I f q ' i s e x c l u d e d f r o m t h e c l a s s P , t h es y l l o g i s m s t a n d s a s o r ig i n a l l y a ss e rt e d . I f w e d o i n c l u d e q ' a m o n g t h e m e m b e r so f th e c l a ss P ( F i g u r e 7 ), a s s u m i n g t h a t th e e x p a n s i o n o f th e c o n s e q u e n c e c l a s so f P d o e s n o t a lt e r it s m a th , th e d a t u m m a y b e i n te r p r e te d a s " T h e o r b i t o f s o m em e m b e r o f t h e c la s s P i s n o t a m e m b e r o f E . " w h i c h c o n t r a d i c ts t h e c o n c l u s i o na n d t h e p r e m i s e " T h e o r b i t o f e v e r y P i s E . "

Fig. 6.

Fig. 7.I n t e r p r e t i n g t h e r e l a t i o n b e t w e e n t h e o r b i ts o f p l a n e ts a n d e l l i p s e s a s th e m a t e r i a li m p l i c a t i o n " I f q i s a m e m b e r o f P t h e n t h e o r b it o f q is E . " ( ( q ~ P ) ~ ( q ~ E ) ) ,r e st ri c ts t h e v a l i d i n f e r e n c e f r o m t h e d a t u m " T h e o r b i t o f q ' i s n o t a m e m b e r o fE . " b y mod us to l lens t o t h e c o n c l u s i o n t h a t q ' is n o t a p l a n e t . S c h e m a t i c a l l y :

(q ' e P) D (q ' e E) = q ' i s a planet implies the orbi t of q ' i s an e ll ipse-~ (q' a E) = Th e orbit o f q ' is an ellipse, is false-~ (q" ~ P) = q ' is a planet, is false

T h i s i s to s a y t h a t i f t h e m a t e r i a l i m p l i c a t i o n " q i s a p l a n e t i m p l i e s t h e o r b i t o f qi s a n e l l i p s e " i s t r u e , n e g a t i o n b y modus to l l ens w i ll o n l y p e r m i t t h e c o n c l u s i o nt h a t h o w e v e r q ' m a y r e s e m b l e a p l a n e t i n o t h e r r e s p e c t s , i f i t s o r b i t i s n o t a ne l l i p s e , i t i s n o t a p l a n e t ( F i g u r e 6 ) , w h i c h d o e s n o t a n d c a n n o t c o n t r a d i c t , a n dt h u s f a l s i f y , t h e a s s u m p t i o n t h a t i f q i s a p l a n e t t h e n t h e o r b i t o f q i s a n e l l ip s e


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194 CHARLESF. RUDDER(Figure 7) .

T he unc r it ic a l equa t ion o f P oppe r ' s r e la t ion be t w e e n c l a s se s w h i c h m a y befa l s i f i ed by cont rad ic t ion wi th ma te r i a l impl i ca t ion mus t a s sume tha t byfa l s i fy ing the consequ ent q , t he i m p l i c a t i o n p ~ q i s fa ls i f iable (Figures 2, 4 , an d7) . The a rgument would then t ake the form " 'q ' i s a p l ane t . ' impl i e s 'The orb i to f q ' i s an e l l ipse ' " , "The orb i t o f q ' i s an e l l ipse . " i s fa l s e , t he re fore " 'q ' i s ap lane t . ' impl i e s 'The orb i t o f q ' i s an e l l ipse . ' " i s f a l s e . Tha t i s , i t mus t beas sum ed tha t the nega t ion of the consequent - , (q ' ~ E) in the expres s ion ( (q ' eP ) D (q ' ~ E) ) can fa l s i fy the expres sion . Schem at i ca l ly :

(q" e P ) ~ (q" e E)" . ( q ' ~ E )" . ( (q" e P ) D (q" e E) )

Table I r evea l s tha t when q i s fa l s e two cor responding con t rad ic tory condi t ions( l ines 3 and 4) , p ~ q i s true (F igure 6 and C lc ) and p D q i s fa ls e (F igures 2 , 7and C2) , m aking the fa l s i ty of p D q undec idab le when i t i s a s se r ted and o n lyas se r t ed tha t q i s fa l s e . Hence , the equa t ion of Popper ' s cont rad ic t ion of ane n t a i l m e n t w i t h m o d u s t o l l e n s under ma te r i a l impl i ca t ion l eads to a log ica la m b i gu i t y s i m i l a r to t he f a l la c i es " a f f i r m i ng the c ons e que n t " a nd " de ny i ng t heantecedent " .

VGiven the co l l apse of ana ly t i c ve r i f i ca t ion i sm, the ambigui ty iden t i f i ed aboveleaves the as sumpt ion tha t the log ica l re l a t ion be tween a theory and empi r i ca lev idence may be represen ted as theory impl i es obse rva t ion vu lne rab le on twocount s . F i r s t , i t f a i l s to mee t the log ica l requi rement s o f Popper ' s account o fsc ien t if i c in fe rence wh ich robs i t o f the va l id i ty tha t Popper c l a ims for em pi r i ca lfa l s i f i ab i l i ty . Second , wi thout the cor robora t ion of Popper ' s log ic , i t r emainsopen to the c r i t iques of ana ly t i c empi r i c i sm and a l t e rna t ive proposa l s forconduc t ing educa t iona l re sea rch tha t Popper ' s thes i s has been impor ted tocounte r . The uncr i t ica l iden t if i ca t ion of the l ink be twe en theo ry and obse rva t ionwi th impl i ca t ion l eaves the formal re l a t ion be tween theore t i ca l s t a t ement s andthe i r ob jec t s p roblemat i c and the cor responding re l a t ion be tween empi r i ca lev idence an d theore t i ca l va l id i ty ambiguo us . These d i f f icu l t i e s, wh ich resem blet he que s t ions r a i s ed b y de ve l opm e n t s w i th i n t he a na l y t i c m o ve m e n t d i s c us se dear l i e r in the paper , show up in the a rgument s of Phi l l ips , Gar r i son , and Cooka nd Ca m pbe l l s um m a r i z e d a bove.The c l a im tha t " In re sea rch the log ica l s ign '- -+ ' i s usua l ly mean t to conve ysom e n ecessary con nect io n, for ins tance, cau sal i ty . '51 br is t les wi th d i f f icul t ies .Because log ica l n e c e s s i t y i s ana ly t i c and connec t ions be tween theor i es andobse rva t ions a re syn the t i c , t h i s a s sump t ion i s vu lne rab le to the b lur r ing o f the


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THE FALSIFICATION FALLACY 195dis t inc t ion be tw een n ecess i ty , o r a s Q uine pu t s i t "an a lyc i ty '52 , and syn the t ict ru th c r e a t e d b y o p e ra t i o n a l i z in g t h e o re t i c al t e rm s a n d s t at e m e n t s . T h e i d e n t if i c a -t io n o f p s y c h o l o g i c a l c a u s a l i t y ( t h e o ry c a u s e s o b s e rv a t i o n ) a n d l o g i c a l i m p l i c a -t i o n ( t h e o ry i m p l i e s o b s e rv a t i o n ) i s a l s o m e t a - l i n g u i s t i c a l l y a n d fo rm a l l yp r o b l e m a t i c . I t i s b y n o m e a n s o b v i o u s w h a t i t w o u l d m e a n f o r a t h e o r y o rh y p o t h e s i s to " c a u s e " a n o b s e rv a t i o n a n d , i f i t c o u l d , h o w t h e o b s e rv a t i o n c o u l db e i n t e rp r e t e d a s e i t h e r c o n f i rm i n g o r f a l s i f y i n g i t . F o rm a l l y , t h e e q u a t i o n o fc a u s a l i ty a n d i m p l i c a t i o n is p ro b l e m a t i c a s a c o n s e q u e n c e o f t h e f a c t , as R o s s e rno tes , tha t the re i s no log ica l ex pres s ion for the no t ion o f causa l i ty . 53

T h e p ro b l e m s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e fo rm a l r e l a t i o n b e t w e e n t h e o re t i c a ls t a t e m e n t s a n d t h e i r o b j e c t s a r e c o m p o u n d e d b y a n a m b i g u i t y c o n c e rn i n g t h ev e r i d i c a l r e l a t i o n b e t w e e n t h e o r i e s a n d o b s e rv a t i o n . C o n s i d e r , f o r e x a m p l e ,C o o k a n d C a m p b e l l ' s i l l u s t r a t i o n o f a f a l s i f i a b l e s c i e n t i f i c a s s e r t i o n , " I fN e w t o n ' s t h e o ry A i s tr u e , t h e n i t s h o u l d b e o b s e rv e d t h a t t h e t i d es h a v e a p e r i o dB , t h e p a t h o f M a r s a s h a p e C , t h e t r a j e c t o ry o f a c a n n o n b a l l f o rm D . '5 4 A sn o t e d e a r l i e r , C o o k a n d C a m p b e l l a t t r i b u t e t h e i m p o s s i b i l i t y o f e m p i r i c a lv e r i f i c a ti o n to t h e f a l l a c y " a f f i rm i n g t h e c o n s e q u e n t " a n d a s c r ib e t h e v a l i d i t y o ffa l s i f i ca t ion in sc ien t i f i c re sea rch to the c i rcums tance tha t " I f obse rva t ionsi n c o n s i s te n t w i t h B , C , a n d D a r e fo u n d t h e y v a l i d l y fa l s i f y t h e t r u t h o f N e w -t o n ' s t h e o ry A . '5 5 F ro m t h e s e c o n d i t i o n s i t f o ll o w s t h a t C o o k a n d C a m p b e l le q u a t e t h e e x p e r i m e n t a l l y te s t a b le r e l a ti o n b e t w e e n a t h e o ry A a n d o b s e rv a t i o n sB , C , a n d D w i t h t h e m a t e r i a l i m p l i c a t i o n A D (B , C , D ) a n d e x p e r i m e n t a l l yv a l i d c o n c l u s i o n s w i t h t h e f a l s i f i ca t i o n o f t h e t h e o ry A b y modus tollens w h e n(B, C, D) is fa lse . 56

T h e a m b i g u i t y a p p e a r s w h e n w e a t t e m p t to d e t e rm i n e w h a t i s b e i n g f a l s i fi e d .I f i t i s a s sumed tha t A D (B , C , D) i s t rue and as se r t s someth ing l ike " the ory quat h e o ry (T ) i n d e p e n d e n t o f it s b e i n g o p e ra t i o n a l i z e d ' i m p l i e s ' o b s e rv a t i o n (O )" , i ti s j u s t a s l o g i c a l ly m e a n i n g fu l t o s a y t h a t a n y s t a t e m e n t - s a y , t h e fu n d a m e n t a lt h e o re m o f a r i t h m e t i c - " i m p l i e s " t h e p ro p e r t i e s o f t id e s , o rb it s , a n d t r a j e c t o ri e si s f a l s i f i a b l e b y o b s e rv a t i o n s i n c o n s i s t e n t w i t h t h e s e c o n d i t i o n s Y I f w e d o n o tas sum e tha t T D O i s t rue the t ru th o r fa l s i ty o f T w hen O i s fa l se is ambig uou sb e c a u s e b o t h T w h e n T D O i s f al s e a n d - , T w h e n T ~ O i s tr u e c o r r e s p o n d t o- ,O . I f , as P o p p e r d o e s , w e a t t e m p t t o e s c a p e t h e a m b i g u i t y o f th e r e l a t i o nb e t w e e n t h e o re t i c a l v a l i d i t y a n d e m p i r i c a l e v i d e n c e b y a s s i g n i n g t h e o b j e c t o fthe empi r ica l t e s t to a connection be tween a theore t i ca l a s se r t ion and i t s ob jec t ,i t m u s t b e a s s u m e d t h a t th e v a l i d i t y o f t h e relation i n d i c a te d b y t h e c o p u l a , a n dn o t t h e t r u th v a l u e o f o n e o f th e t e rm s ( t h e o ry ) w h e n t h e t r u t h v a l u e o f t h e o t h e rte rm (obse rva t ion) i s g iven , i s the sub jec t o f the empi r ica l t e s t . Assuming tha ts t a t e m e n t s w h i c h e m p i r i c a l r e s e a r c h a t t e m p t s t o v a l i d a t e t a k e t h e fo rm " t h e o ryi m p l i e s o b s e rv a t i o n " (T D O ) , a n d t h a t t h e r e l a t i o n (D ) i s t h e s u b j e c t o f t h eempi r ica l fa l s i f i ca t ion ra the r than a theory qua t h e o ry (T ) , a rg u i n g f ro m t h en e g a t i o n o f t h e c o n s e q u e n t (T ~ O , " -,O , t h e r e fo re -~ (T ~ O ) ) i s a l so a m b i g u o u sin the man ner desc r ib ed above ; tha t i s , bo th T ~ O i s t rue and T D O i s fa l sec o r r e s p o n d t o - ,O .

F o r a p r a c t i c a l i l l u s t r a t i o n o f t h e p ro b l e m s i d e n t i f i e d a b o v e , c o n s i d e r t h e


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19 6 CHARLES F. RUDDERh y p o t h e s i s w h i c h r e g u l a r l y a p p e a r s i n t e a c h e r e v a l u a t i o n i n s t r u m e n t s t h a ti n c r e a s e d t i m e o n t a s k r e s u l t s i n g a i n s i n a c a d e m i c a c h i e v e m e n t a n d t h ea s s u m p t i o n t h a t m a t e r i a l i m p l i c a t i o n l i n k s t e s t a b l e h y p o t h e s e s t o o b s e r v a t i o n s .A s s u m i n g t h a t t h r e a t s t o statistical v a l i d i t y h a v e b e e n e l i m i n a t e d , a v a l i dn e g a t i o n o f w h a t i s t h e o r e t i c a l l y i n d i c a t e d b y t h i s h y p o t h e s i s w o u l d t a k e t h ef o r m :

T D O = (Increased t im e on task) " im plies" (Measurable gains inachievement)"~O = No measurable gains in achievement-~T = No increased time on task

N o w , i f th e h y p o t h e s i s T D O i s tr u e , th e a b s e n c e o f m e a s u r a b l e g a i n s ina c h i e v e m e n t i s o p e n t o a n u m b e r o f t h e o r e ti c a l ly i n d i c a t e d i n t e r p r e ta t i o n s s u c ha s t h a t ti m e o n t a s k w a s n o t i n c r e a s e d o r , p e r h a p s , n o t p r o p e r l y i n c r e a s e d o r t h a tg a i n s i n a c h i e v e m e n t h a v e n o t y e t o c c u r r e d . T h i s i s t o s a y t h a t h o w e v e r w h a t i so b s e r v e d c o n f l i c t s w i t h t h e o r e t i c a l l y d e t e r m i n e d e x p e c t a t i o n s , i t i s v a l i d l yi n t e rp r e t a b l e o n l y i n a m a n n e r c o n s i s t e n t w i t h t h e o r e t i c a l ly i n d i c a t e d a u x i a l i a r yh y p o t h e s e s .

I f , h o w e v e r , w e d o n o t a s s u m e t h a t t h e h y p o t h e s i s T D O i s t r u e , t h e c l a i mt h a t t h e a b s e n c e o f o b s e r v a b l e c h a n g e s ( -1 0 ) - a g a i n d i s c o u n t i n g t h r e at s t os t a t i s t i ca l va l i d i t y - i s ev idence t ha t t he hypothes i s i s f a l se i s l og i ca l l y am-b i g u o u s b e c a u s e i t i s o p e n t o c o n t r a d i c t o r y i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s . T h e c i r c u m s t a n c e( -~ T) i n t e rpre t ed a bo ve as con t r a ry t o t heore t i ca l l y i nd i ca t ed aux i a l i a ryh y p o t h e s e s 58 w h e n w h a t i s i n d i c a t e d b y t h e i m p l i c a t io n i s t ru e ( T a b l e I , li n e 3 ) ,a n d t h e c i r c u m s t a n c e ( - ~ (T D O ) ) i n t e r p r e t a b le a s c o n t r a r y t o h y p o t h e t i c a l l yi n d i c a te d f a c t u a l c o n s e q u e n c e s - s a y , a s H a r o l d R u g g a r g u e d , 59 i t is o b s e r v e dt h a t f o r s o m e a c t i v i t i e s i n c r e a s e d t i m e o n t a s k impedes a c h i e v e m e n t - m a k i n gw h a t i s i n d i c a t e d b y t h e i m p l i c a t i o n f a l s e ( T a b l e I , l i n e 4 ) , c o r r e s p o n d t o t h ec o n d i t i o n " ~O . H e n c e , t a k i n g t h e a b s e n c e o f o b s e r v a b l e c h a n g e a s e v i d e n c e t h a tt h e e x p e r i m e n t a l h y p o t h e s i s c a n b e v a l i d l y a s s e s s e d f l o u n d e r s o n a l o g i c a lf a l l acy .

V IT h e c o l l ap s e o f p o s i t iv i s m f u l ly j u s ti f ie s a t t e m p t s s u c h a s C o o k a n d C a m p b e l l ' st o r e a r g u e t h e p h i l o s o p h i c a l f o u n d a t i o n s o f s o c i a l a n d e d u c a t i o n a l r e s e a r c h .V e r i f i c a t io n i s t d e s c r i p t io n s o f t h e s c i e n t if i c m e t h o d o f i n q u i r y t h a t h a v e j u s t i f ie dt h e s c i e n t i f i c s t a t u s o f e d u c a t i o n a l r e s e a r c h a n d f r o m w h i c h e x p e r i m e n t a l a n dq u a s i - e x p e r i m e n t a l r e s e a r c h m e t h o d s w e r e d e r i v e d a r e , a f t e r a l l , p h i l o s o p h i c a la r t i f ac t s . A t p resen t , Popper ' s account o f t he ro l e o f f a l s i f i ab i l i t y i n sc i en t i f i cd i s c o v e r y - a s s ta t e d o r w i t h in t e r n a ll y c o n s i s t e n t m o d i f i c a t i o n s - r e m a i n s av i a b l e a l t e rn a t i v e t o a n a l y t ic v e r i f ic a t i o n i sm . 6 ~ H o w e v e r , a p a r t f r o m f a l s if i a b i li t y


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THE FALSIFICATION ALLACY t 97i n t e r p r e t e d a s t h e c o n t r a d i c t i o n o f a n a s s e r t i o n b y a l e s s g e n e r a l a s s e r t i o n ,P o p p e r ' s a c c o u n t o f t h e r e la t i o n b e t w e e n t h e o r et i ca l v a l i d i ty a n d e m p i r i c ale v i d e n c e c o l la p s e s . H e n c e , a s t ri c t c o n f o r m i t y to t h e l o g i c a l a n d m e t a - l o g i c a lr e q u i r e m e n t s o f P o p p e r ' s a c c o u n t o f fa l s if ia b i li ty i s e s s e nt ia l t o a n y a s s e s s m e n to f it s a p l ic a b i l i t y i n s o c i a l a n d e d u c a t i o n a l i n q u i r y .

T h e a m b i g u i t y d e s c r ib e d a b o v e m a k e s P o p p e r ' s a c c o u n t o f fa l s if i ab i li t y a n di ts r o le i n s c ie n t if i c d i s c o v e r y l o g i c a l ly i n c o m m e n s u r a b l e w i t h C o o k a n dC a m p b e l l ' s a t t e m p t t o r e c o n s t r u c t a n a n a ly t i c d e f e n s e o f q u a s i - e x p e r i m e n t a la p p r o a c h e s t o s o c i a l a n d e d u c a t i o n a l r e s e a r c h . T h e s a m e a m b i g u i t y r e m o v e s t h ec o r r o b o r a t i o n t h a t P h i l li p s c l a i m s f o r P o p p e r ' s a c c o u n t o f f a l si f ia b i li ty i n h i sd e f e n s e o f m e t h o d o l o g i c a l m o n i s m . M o r e o v e r , c o n t r a r y to th e c l a i m t h a t " t h el o g i c o f e x p e r i m e n t a t io n i s s o u n d '6 1 a n d t h a t " T h e q u e s t i o n t h a t i s o p e n f o rd i s c u s s i o n i s n o t t h e l o g i c , b u t r a t h e r w h a t c a n b e c o n c l u d e d f r o m a s u c c e s s f u l. .. e x p e r i m e n t '6 2, P o p p e r ' s l o g i c o f s c i e n t if i c d i s c o v e r y s u g g e s t s t h e p o s s i b i li t yt h a t t h e l o g ic o f e d u c a t i o n a l e x p e r i m e n t a t i o n m a y n o t b e s o u n d a n d m i g h t w e l lb e o p e n t o c r i ti c a l d i s c u s s i o n a n d r e v i s i o n . F u r t h e r e x p l o r a t i o n o f t h e s e i s s u e sm i g h t e n h a n c e o u r u n d e r s t a n d i n g a n d c o n t r i b u t e t o t h e e li m i n a t i o n o f s o m es o u r c e s o f t h e d i sa p p o i n t i n g a b s e n c e o f a g r e e m e n t a b o u t w h a t w e h a v e l e a r n e df r o m o r t h o d o x a p p r o a c h e s t o s o c i a l a n d e d u c a t i o n a l r e s e a r c h a n d t h e e q u a l l yd i s a p p o i n t i n g r e s u l t s o f i ts p r a c t i c a l a p p l i c a t i o n s . 63

N O T E Si See, for exam ple , Meehl, Paul, 'Theore t ical Risks and Tabular Aster isks: Sir Karl , SirR o n a l d a n d t h e S l o w P r o g r es s o f S o f t P s y c h o l o g y ' , i n Selected Philosophical andMethodological Papers, Minneapol is : Un ivers i ty of Minneso ta Press , 1991. C. An ton yAnderson and Ke i th Gunderson (eds . ) . P . 18f f , Rore r , Leonard G . , 'Some Myths o fS c i e n c e i n P s y c h o l o g y ' , i n Thin king Clearly about Psychology, Vol. h Minneapolis,Univers i ty o f Minneso ta p ress, 1991, pp . 75-76 , and D e C . Fem andes , Se rg io L . ,Foundations of Objective Knowledge, Boston: D. Reidel Publ ishing Company, 1985,pp . 73-74 .2 Popper , Karl R. , The Logic of Scientific Discovery, New York : Bas ic Books , Inc . , 1959 ,p. 76.3 'E ntai lm ent ' i s here res tr ic ted to Pop per 's definit ion of the the term in his accoun t ofthe re la tion between the antecedent and co nsequ ent in s ta tements that are empir ical lyfals i f iable . Expressions such as 'P entai ls Q ' are in terpreted throughout the paper asstatements indica ting that a class o f statements, objects, or events P is grea ter than orequal to - includes a l l and possibly more than is included in - the c lass Q.4 See for exam ple, Phillips, D.C., Philosophy Science and Social Inquiry, N e w Y o r k :Perga m on Press , 1987.5 Garr ison, Jam es W ., 'S om e Principles of Posit iv ist ic Phi loso phy o f Sc ienc e ' ,Educational Researcher, N ov em ber 1986, Vol . 15. No . 11. p . 13.6 Coo k , Thom as D. and Cam pbe l l Dona ld T . , Quasi-experimentation: Design andAnalysis Issues fo r Field Settings, Chicago : Rand McN al ly , 1979.7 Cz~'Lko,Gary , 'Unpred ic tab il i ty and Inde te rmin i sm in Hum an Behav io r : Argum ents andImpl ica t ions fo r educa t iona l Resea rch ' , Educational Researcher. Apri l 1989, Vol . 18,No. 3. p. 17.8 Phi ll ips , D.C. 'Af ter the Wa ke: Postposit iv ist ic Educ at ional Tho ug ht ' . Educational


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198 CHAR LES F. RUDDERR e s e a r c h e r . M ay 1983. Vol . 12 , No . 5 . pp . 4 -1 2 .9 S e e , fo r e x a m p le , K e n n e th H o w e , o n t h e ' d o g m a ' o f t h e f a c t - v a lu e d i s t i n c ti o n i n ' T w oD o g m a s o f E d u c a t i o n al R e s e a r c h ' , E d u c a t i o n a l R e s e a r c h e r . October 1985 , Vol . 14 . No .8 pp . 10 -18 .t0 F l a n a g a n , O w e n , T h e S c i e n c e o f t h e M i n d , Ca m b r id g e : M I T P r e s s , 1 9 91 . p p . 3 0 7 - 3 0 8 .G a r d n e r , H o w a r d , T h e M i n d ' s N e w S c i e n ce , Ne w Y ork : Bas ic Bo oks , Inc . , 1987. P . 323 .11 Q u in e ' s c r i ti q u e o f t h e a n a ly t i c / sy n th e t i c d i s t i n c t io n m e t i c u lo u s ly e x a m in e s t h e s ei s su e s ( Q u in e , W . V . O . , ' T w o D o g m a s o f E m p i r i c is m ' , in F r o m a L o g i c a l P o i n t o f V i ew .Ca m b r id g e : H a r v a r d U n iv e r s i t y P r e s s , 1 96 2) .12 G a r r i s o n , J a m e s W . , ' S o m e P r in c ip l e s o f P o s i t iv i s t i c P h i l o s o p h y o f S c i e n c e ' ,E d u c a t i o n a l R e s e a r c h e r . p . 13 . See a l so , Laudan , Lar ry , S c i e n c e a n d R e l a t i v i s m ,Ch ic a g o : T h e U n iv e r s i t y o f Ch ic a g o P r e s s , 1 9 90 . p p . 3 3 - 6 8 .13 Laudan, Larry , S c i e n c e a n d R e l a t i v is m .14 Popp er , Ka rl R. C o n j e c t u r e s a n d R e f u ta t io n s . p p . 3 5 - 3 6 .15 A u t o b i o g r a p h y o f K a r l P o p p e r , in T h e P h i l o so p h y o f K a r l P o p p e r , L i b r a ry o f L i v i n gP h i lo s o p h e r s , V o lu m e X I V Bo o k I , P a u l A r th u r S c h l i p p ( e d . ) , L a S a l l e : O p e n Co u r t ,1974. p. 72.16 S e e a l s o F .S .C . N o r th r o p ' s i n t r o d u c ti o n t o W e m e r H e i s e n b e r g ' s P h y s i c s a n dP h i l o s o p h y . N e w Y o r k : H a r p e r T o r c h Bo o k s , 1 9 62 , a n d Ba r t l e y , W i l l i a m W . ,U n f a t h o m a b l e K n o w l e d g e U n m e a s u r e d W e a l t h . La S a l le , I l l ino is : Op en C our t , 1990 . pp .172-176 .17 Popper, A u t o b i o g r a p h y , p . 38 .i s Popper , O b j e c t i v e K n o w l e d g e , p . 4 .19 S e e , f o r e x a m p le , ' E p i s t e m o lo g y W i th o u t a K n o w in g S u b j e c t ' , P o p p e r , O b j e c t i v eK n o w l e d g e , p p . 1 0 6 - 1 5 0 .20 In e f fec t Ph i l f ips subs t i tu tes a ' log ic a l neg a t iv ism ' fo r log ica l pos i t iv i sm .21 P hil l ip s , D.C ., Phi losophy , Sc i ence , and Soc ia l I nqu i ry .2 z P h i l l i p s , D .C . , ' T o w a r d a n E v a lu a t i o n o f t h e E x p e r im e n t i n E d u c a t i o n a l Co n te x t s ' ,E d u c a t i o n a l R e s e a r c h e r . July 1981, Vol. 10, No. 6 . p . 18.23 Phil l ips , Phi losophy , Sc i ence , and Soc ia l I nqu i ry . pp . 14-15 .24 G a r r i s o n , J a m e s W . , ' S o m e P r in c ip l e s o f P o s i t i v i s t ic P h i l o s o p h y o f S c i e n c e ' , p . 1 3.25 Phil l ips , Phi losophy , Sc i ence , and Soc ia l I nqu i ry . p . 15 .26 G a r r i s o n , ' P o s i t i v i s t i c P h i l o s o p h y o f S c i e n c e ' . p . 1 3.27 Cook , and Campbe l l , Q u a s i - E x p e r i m e n t a ti o n : D e s i g n a n d A n a l y s i s I s s u e s f o r F i e l dSe t t i ngs .z8 lb id , 21.29 I b id , 21.3o l b id , 21.31 I b id , 22.32 G ar r i son , ' P os i t iv i s t ic Ph i los oph y o f Sc ienc e ' . p . 13 .33 T a r s k i , A l f r e d , ' S y m b o l i c L o g ic ' , i n N e w m a n , J a m e s R . ( e d . ), T h e W o r l d o f M a t h e -m a t i c s , New York : S im on and Schus te r , 1956 . p . 1913 .34 R o r e r , ' S o m e M y th s o f S c i en c e i n P s y c h o lo g y ' , p . 7 5 .35 Ibid, 75 .36 Popper , Kar l R. , T h e L o g i c o f S c i e n t i f i c D i s c o v e r y , N e w Y o r k : Ba s i c Bo o k s , I n c . ,1959.37 Ibid, 76 .38 I b ld , 76 n.39 I b ld , 123 and 123 n *1.4o Co o k a n d Ca m p b e l l ' s e r ro n io u s a n d c o n t r a d i c to r y ( s e e n o t e 5 6 b e lo w ) i d e n t i f i c a t i o n o fm o d u s t o l l e n s as a fa l lacy ( re fe rence 28 above) i s puzz l ing . I s th i s s imply a ' s l ip o f thep e n ' o r d id t h e y o b s e r v e P o p p e r ' s d i s c l a im e r a n d f a i l t o e x p lo r e it s c o n s e q u e n c e s ?41 S e e a l s o , M e e h l , ' T h e o r e t i c a l R i s k s a n d T a b u la r A s t e r i s k s ' , p . 2 5 .42 Ibid, 120.


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THE FALSIFICATIONFALLACY 19943 Ibid, 120n44 Ibid, 120. Emphasis added.45 Popper' Objective Knowledge, p. 126 and p. 297.46 Popper, The Logic o f Scientific D iscovery. p. 121.47 Ibid.48 Ibid, 1 2 1 - 1 2 2 .49 Popper, The Logic o f Scientific D iscovery. p. 41 and pp. 121-122.5o Popper's description of deducibility and falsifiability in The Logic of ScientificDiscovery summarized above is an enthymeme; that is, one premise of the syllogism - inthe example above 'Al l heavenly bodies' includes 'Al l planets' - is not formally explicit.(But see Conjectures and Refutations, pp. 202-204). It is imperative in the presentcontext that this omission be noted because both the truth of the conclusion of thesyllogism and the falsification of premise E > H when the conclusion is false depend onthe t~ruth of the premise H >_ P. Consider, for example, 'Every bird has wings.' , 'Everybat is a bird.', therefore, 'Every bat has wings.'51 Garrison, 'Positivistic Philosophy of Science'. p. 13.5z Quine, 'Two Dogmas of Empiricism'.53 Rosser, J. Barkley, Logic for Mathematicians. New York: McGraw-Hill BookCompany, Inc., 1953. p. 6. See also Standley, Gerald B. New M ethods in Symbolic Logic.Boston: Houghton Mifflin Company, 1971. p. 754 Cook and Campbell, Quasi-Experimentation. p. 21.55 Ibid, 2156 See note 40.57 See Standley, for example, on the 'oddness ' of material implication inNe w Methods inSymbolic Logic. p. 7.58 Although the present interpretation of Popper's falsifiability does not remove theproblems associated with auxiliary hypotheses A and initia l conditions C (Meehl,'Theoretical Risks and Tabular Asterisks', p. 20, and Garrison, 'Positivistic Philosophyof Science', p. 13) it does put them in a different light. The falsification of the expression[(T. A. C) ~ O], does not isolate the conjunction (T . A . C).5 9 R u g g , Harold, Imigination, New York: Harper &

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