3-Jan-13

RUBBER REPORT A Daily report on Natural Rubber

ANALYST: Anu V Pai A Daily report on Natural Rubber

MARKET COMMENTARY

⊳ Limited supplies coupled with gains in crude oil and other industrial commodities, natural rubber inched up in the Indian market on Wednesday. With supplies remaining tight in anticipation of higher prices in coming days, RSS4 was marginally up in the physical market. Positive moves in the futures market too aided the sentiments. The benchmark February rubber futures in NMCE rose around one per cent yesterday following two consecutive sessions of decline. Latex (drc 60%) prices were seen rising too after remaining mostly steady for the last few days. ⊳ In the international market, the trendsetting TOCOM and SHFE remained shut for the New Year holidays and will be reopening only on Friday. In AFET, RSS3 grade rubber is seen steadying after the previous session advances, awaiting fresh cues for further directional moves.

Geojit Comtrade Research Desk www.geojitcomtrade.com

TECHNICAL VIEW CHART

RUBBER Feb NMCE

Prices are currently placed near the congestion range of 16960-17070 and require clearing convincingly the same to continue the prevailing buying sentiments. Inability to break and sustain the same could call for a turn lower possibly to 16700/16500 or more.

Resistances

TURNAROUND

LEVELS Supports

16960-17070 17100-16950-16500 16700/16550

17160/17360 16430/16280

17450/17600 16100/15900

OPENING SIGNALS

UPCOMING RUBBER MARKET HOLIDAYS

DATE EXCHANGE/COUNTRY OCCATION

01Jan-03Jan TOCOM, SHFE New Year

14-Jan TOCOM Coming of Age

14-Jan NMCE Uttarayan

23-Jan Indonesia Chinese New Year

24-Jan Malaysia

Birthday of Prophet Muhammed

25-Jan NMCE Id-E-Milad

26-Jan NMCE Republic Day

27-Jan Malaysia Thaipusam

09-15 Feb SHFE Spring Festival

COMMODITY LTP* Chg%

Nymex Crude Oil ($/bbl) 92.7 -0.45

Tokyo Commodity Exchange Rubber (Y/kg)

HOLIDAY

Agricultural Futures Exchange of Thailand Rubber (TBH/kg)

111.5 No Chg

Shanghai Futures Exchange Rubber (Yuan/ton)

HOLIDAY

CURRENCY LTP* Chg%

USD/INR 54.43 0.30

USD/ JPY 87.24 -0.09

* LTP: Last traded price at 09:23am IST.

⊳ According to Thai Rubber Association, rubber exports from the country is expected to remain on rise in 2013, with growth estimated about 3.0-5.0 per cent boosted by higher demand from emerging markets including China, India and Brazil. ⊳ A meeting was held between Prof. K.V. Thomas, Minister of State (Independent Charge) for Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution and Anand Sharma, Minister for Commerce, Industry and Textiles, Friday in New Delhi to review fall in domestic price of natural rubber in the month of December, 2012. ⊳ Rubber output in Indonesia, the largest grower after Thailand, may decline for the first time in four years in 2013 as the country limits output and shipments in coordination with other producers to support a rally. ⊳ The rubber industry has sought lower import duty on raw materials such as butyl rubber and hi-tech synthetic rubbers, while it wants the duty on finished products to be kept high. A pre-Budget plea by the AIRIA, has asked for reduction in customs duty on natural rubber (NR) from the current 20 per cent or Rs 20 a kg to 7.5 per cent or Rs 10 a kg, whichever is lower.

MARKET NEWS

WEATHER

DAILY WEATHER KERALA (Source: IMD)

SUMMARY: Very light rain occurred in Lakshadweep. No rain occurred in Kerala. Minimum temperature rose in Alappuzha district, was appreciably above normal in Kannur, Kollam, Kozhikode & Palakkad districts, was above normal in Alappuzha, Ernakulam & Thiruvananthapuram districts and changed little in the remaining districts. CIAL Kochi, Punalur & Vellanikkara recorded the lowest minimum temperature of 23degreeC. FORECAST AND FARMERS WEATHER BULLETIN VALID UNTIL

THE MORNING OF 4TH JANUARY 2013: Mainly dry weather will prevail over Kerala and Lakshadweep. OUTLOOK FOR SUBSEQUENT TWO DAYS (5TH – 6TH JANUARY

2013): No significant change.

(Source: IMD)

Geojit Comtrade Research Desk www.geojitcomtrade.com

ARBITRAGE WINDOW: Across Domestic as well as International markets

Kottayam RSS4 Spot: Rs. 162.00/kg Latex (drc 60%): Rs.106.25/kg

NMCE RUBBER FUTURES

Contract Open High Low Last % Chg Vol ▲ Vol OI ▲OI

Jan-13 16575 16650 16460 16604 0.97 2746 1624 2462 -261

Feb-13 16762 16900 16710 16868 1.07 3034 1530 3228 232

Mar-13 17085 17200 17020 17172 1.01 698 314 834 128

Apr-13 17596 17600 17401 17534 0.19 24 22 13 6

SPREAD

Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13

Spot -404 -668 -972 -1334

Jan-13 0 -264 -568 -930

Feb-13 0 -304 -666

Mar-13 0 -362

Apr-13 0

INTERNATIONAL RUBBER PRICES (in Rs.)

Origin Close (Rs/kg) Chg

Bangkok (RSS3) Spot 178.76 1.02

Malaysia (SMR20) Spot 165.53 1.73

AFET (RSS3)Aug13 199.79 4.83

Tocom (RSS3)Jun13 HOLIDAY

Shanghai (RSS3) May 13 HOLIDAY

Spread between Domestic and International

NR Prices

03.53

16.76

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

Jan-

11

Apr-

11

Jul-

11

Oct-

11

Jan-

12

Apr-

12

Jul-

12

Oct-

12

Jan-

13

Date

Sp

re

ad

(in

Rs

/k

g)

Malaysia

Bangkok

NMCERubber OI & Valid WH Receipts

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

3-May 7-Jun 12-Jul 17-Aug 24-Sep 1-Nov 7-Dec

OI

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

Va

lid

WH

Re

ce

ipts

Valid WH Receipts Jan Feb

Mar Total OI Apr

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