Rozinkina Inna, Kukanova Evgenia, Revokatova Anastasia, &Muravev Anatoly, Glebova Ekaterina

SubjectSubject

Large-scale approach (COST-733) Microclimatic analysis Verification Conclusions

Regions of meteo-support

20.04.23

3

Coastal cluster (Olympic Park)

Mountain Cluster (Krasnaya Polyana)

Sochi

Krasnaya polyana

In mountain Cluster all venues are on the slopes

Motivation:Motivation:

Forecasting for Mountain cluster based on microclimatic analysis methods and classification of large-scale processesRecommendations for forecasters

Choice of classification(period 1/12/2012 – 20/03/2013)

Project COST-733 - “Harmonisation and Applications of Weather Type Classifications for European regions“

Weusthoff T: 2011,Weather Type Classification at MeteoSwiss – Introduction of new automatic classifications schemes, Arbeitsberichte der MeteoSchweiz, vol. 235, 46 p

Amount of days which couldn’t be ranged to a certain classhttp://geo23.geo.uni-augsburg.de/cost733wiki

GWT27: 27 circulation types

The most often types:

1, 4, 14, 16, 17, 23, 24, 26 № 4

Period: 1.12.2012-20.03.2013

Weather types in different monthsWeather types in different months

Amount of days with different weather types in February

0

2

46

8

10

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27

Amount of days with different weather types in March

0

2

4

6

8

10

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27

Amount of days with different weather types in January

02

46

810

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27

TYPE TYPE №4№4

• Precipitation under type 4 were 14 times (from 21)• The heaviest precipitation during this winter were

observed under 4 type• Weather type 4 was observed often then others

• Periphery of cyclone.• Atmospheric front alter

direction because of the mountains.

• Front can stop between mountains and does not change location during several days

• When it is type 4, it is 50% that heavy precipitation

Real example of type №4March, 13Precipitation - 40 mm/day COSMO-Ru2 forecast

Cold flux from the north -> intensification of atmospheric fronts -> interaction with mountains -> low speed -> fronts stop in the valley -> heavy precipitation

Precipitation and weather types GWT_27

Weather types withoutwithout heavy precipitation (<10mm): 2,6,8,10,11,12,13,18,22,27

Weather types withwith heavy precipitation (>10mm):1,4,7,9,14,16,17,19,25

Coastal (sea) air temperature Continental air temperature

Deference (gradient) between continental and Deference (gradient) between continental and coastal temperature coastal temperature

Precipitation, sum of 12 hours, mm

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

мм

Dependence of precipitation on sea Dependence of precipitation on sea and continental temperature differenceand continental temperature difference

Additional investigations of COST-733

Program software from http://cost733.met.no/ was used for Europe and Western Siberia in order to:- obtain new types of circulation

- find out how discrimination to different types (for temperature and precipitation) statistically significant. How temperature and precipitation distribution under weather type differ from mean values for whole period (1957-2013).

Typification of large-scale processes by k-mean distance method

Period: December – March, resolution 1.5x1.5 degrees

01.09.1957 – 31.08.2002 ERA-4001.09.2002 – 31.03.2013 ERA Interim

Amount of weather type – 20

Domain of typification takes into account main synoptic processes

Calculation results• Set of circulation

types (map of ground pressure)

• List of dates for whole period (1957-2013) with weather types (from 1 to 20)

Inter annual frequency of different types doesn’t show significant trends for this period

Discrimination of different weather typesHow distribution of temperature and precipitation under different weather types (20) differ from mean values during period (1957-2013)?

Statistical criterion of Kolmogorov-Smirnov shows how different two data distributions from each other

We found out that for Sochi region only 4 types differ from “climate” in terms of precipitation (there is a tendency to dry or wet weather). Under others 16 types precipitations with big variety of intensity can be observed

11 types differ from “climate” in terms of temperature

Microclimatic characteristics identified Microclimatic characteristics identified by observations of SOCHI 2014 networkby observations of SOCHI 2014 network

460 - ski-jump, 628 м; 59 – bobsleigh, 701 м; 58 – bobsleigh, 835 м; 53 – snowboard, 1027 м; 62 – biathlon stadium, 1471 м

Г. АибгаMt. Aibga

Krasnaya Polyana

Black sea

Mt. Aibga

Krasnaya PolyanaKrasnaya Polyana

7 АМS (at Olympic objects): 20 Feb. – 20 March 2 network meteo station (Mt. Aibga , Krasnaya Polyana): 1 Dec.-20 March

South-East

1 – ski centre «Rosa Hutor»; 2 – Extreme-park – «Rosa Hutor»;3 – bobsleigh centre; 4 – ski-jump; 5 – Complex for biathlon and cross-

country skiing

Valley is protected from the large-scale wind streams, the height of venues (800 – 1500 m) are close to the top of cloudinessThe resolution of COSMO-2 is not sufficient for reproducing the local values of critical parameters - the additional techniques are necessary

,

1471 m

1027 m

835 m

701 m628 m

H

2 mm

- Heights of stations

Ski-jump,

628 м

Bobsleigh,

701 м

Bobsleigh, 835 м

Snowboard,

1027

biathlon

stadium,

1471 м

Ski-jump, 628 m - 0,86 0,85 0,80 0,75

Bobsleigh, 701 m 0,86 - 0,95 0.91 0,82

Bobsleigh, 835 m 0,85 0,95 - 0,91 0,82

Snowboard 1027 m0,80 0.91 0,91 - 0,81

biathlon stadium,

1471 m

0,75 0,82 0,82 0,81 -

PRECIPITATION INTENSITYPRECIPITATION INTENSITYStations codes:460 460 - ski-jump, 628 m; 5959 – bobsleigh, 701 m; 5858 – bobsleigh, 835 m; 5353 – snowboard, 1027 m; 6262 – biathlon stadium, 1471 m3110731107 – Krasnaya Polyana37109 37109 – Mt. Aibga

mmmm

20 Feb. – 20 March

Features of precipitation regimes at different points

Station H, mGeographic

features

Amounts feb –march

2013Features

Krasnaya Polyana

538 valley 217Low

correlation of amounts

ski-jump, 628 S - exp 213

bobsleigh 701 S - exp 219

bobsleigh 835 S - exp 248

snowboard 1027 S - exp 241

biathlon stadium

1471 N - exp 207Slightly

less

Mt. Aibga 2225 S – exp, top 79

Significantly less

Krasnaya PolyanaKrasnaya Polyana

Mt. Aibga

Krasnaya Polyana

ASSESSMENT OF COSMO-RU2 PRECIPITATION FORECASTASSESSMENT OF COSMO-RU2 PRECIPITATION FORECAST

From 20 Feb to 20 March 2013

00 and 06 model runs (will be used by synoptic in Sochi)

5 АМS и 2 network stations

Only 3 cases when forecast was not successful. (2 times model predicted precipitation, but it was not, 1 time precipitation was not predicted but was observed).

Intensity of precipitation is overestimated by 1,5 – 2 times at 5 days of this period

High quality of COSMO-Ru2 precipitation forecast

Tendency to the overestimation

Wind direction at Olympic objectsWind direction at Olympic objects

ski-jump, 628 м

bobsleigh, 701 м

bobsleigh, 835 мsnowboard, 1027 м

ski-jump, 628 м

ski-jump, 800 м

Ski-jump,

628 м

Bobsle

igh,

701 м

Ski-

jump,

800 м

Bobsle

igh,

835 м

Snowboard,

1027 м

Freestyle,

1077м

Biathlon

stadium,

1471 м

Ski-jump, 628 м - 0.76 0.92 0.79 0.42 0.33 0.31

Bobsleigh, 701 м 0.76 - 0.82 0.99 0.38 0.32 0.18Ski-jump, 800 м 0.92 0.82 - 0.86 0.38 0.31 0.2

Bobsleigh, 835 м 0.79 0.99 0.86 - 0.4 0.34 0.2Snowboard, 1027 м 0.42 0.38 0.38 0.4 - 0.2 0.45

Freestyle, 1077м 0.33 0.32 0.31 0.34 0.2 - 0.44

Biathlon stadium,

1471 м0.31 0.18 0.2 0.2 0.45 0.44 -

20 Feb. – 20 March

< 100 m < 200 m < 500 m < 1000 m >10 000

Ski-jump, 628 m 0 4 11 12 0

Bobsleigh, 701 m 7 12 14 15 4

Ski-jump, 800 m 7 11 15 16 5

Bobsleigh, 835 m 7 12 14 15 4

Snowboard, 1027 m 8 11 12 14 4

Freestyle, 1077 m 7 12 15 16 4

Biathlon stadium,

1471 m9 12 16 18 5

VERSUS

Temperature under north windTemperature under north wind

Temperature assessment under different wind directionsEast South

South-west WestWest

Temperature

2011-2012 2011-2012 Dec - MarchDec - March

2013, January - 2013, January - MarchMarch

Calculated in Met

Temperature forecast is more exact under solid cloud cover;diurnal variation is underestimated by 2ос

Temperature forecast with cloudy weather

WIND assessmentWIND assessment

Wind turned clockwise relatively to the real wind by 70 - 90о

Low speed

Middle speed (5-7 m/s) High speed (>7 m/s)Low speed (<5 m/s)

Wind speed overestimated by 1-2 m/s

WIND, middle speedWIND, middle speed

Overestimation of wind speed by 4-5 m/s

WIND, high speedWIND, high speed

Overestimation of wind speed by 2-3 m/s

Very stable assessment!

Turned clockwise relatively to the real wind by 30 - 50о

Turned diversely to the real wind by 30 - 40о

Wind N E SE

night day night day night day

Т2м +0.5оС +2оС +0.5..1оС +2.5оС 0оС +2.5оС

Тd2м -0.5… -1 оС 0…-1 оС -1..-1.5 оС

V -1.5 m/s -0.5 … -1.5 m/s -2…-2.5 m/s

V - 57..67о 0о +60о - 50 …60 о

Wind S SW W night day night day night day

Т2м +0.5оС +2.5оС 0оС +2.5оС +0.5 оС - 1оС

Тd2м -1.5…-2.5 оС -1… -2 оС -0.5… -1 оС

V -2 … 2.5 m/s -1.5 … 2 m/s -1.5 … 2 m/s

V -70о 0о

- 90о …

110о- 60о … 70о - 80о …130о

Practical Proposals of values for Correction of COSMO-Ru2 Forecasts under different wind directions

Some practical recommendations for forecasters in mountain cluster are obtained:

- Microclimatic properties of wind, visibility and precipitation

- Large- scale Synoptic situations which lead to heavy precipitation

- Estimates of model forecast of temperature, dewpoint temperature, precipitation, wind speed and wind direction

- Corrections coefficients to model forecast with dependence of weather conditions were defined

1471 m

1027 m

835 m

701 m628 m

HH

Stations codes:460 - ski-jump, 628 m; 59 – bobsleigh, 701 m; 58 – bobsleigh, 835 m; 53 – snowboard, 1027 m; 62 – biathlon stadium, 1471 m; 31107 – Krasnaya Polyana; 37109 – Mt. Aibga

Tendency to the overestimation of dewpoint temperature by 1-2оС

Model wind is rotated clockwise relatively real wind by 30 - 120о

Successful forecast of pressure with precision up to 1hPа

Other results