Ron Plain D. Howard Doane Professor of Agricultural Economics University of Missouri-Columbia

Ron PlainD. Howard Doane Professor of Agricultural EconomicsUniversity of Missouri-Columbiahttp://web.missouri.edu/~plainr/

Hog & Pork Outlook Louisville,

August 15-16

2011 Midwest/Great Plains & Western Outlook Conference

Annual U.S. Pork Production, 1930-2011

0

5

10

15

20

2519

30

1935

1940

1945

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

Billion Poundsactual 1.5% trend

2011 U.S. pork production expected to be on trend

Cost of Production

Corn, Average Price Received, Monthly, 1987-2011

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

719

87

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

$ pe

r bus

hel

Source: USDA/NASS

Cost of Slaughter Hog ProductionIowa State University Calculations, 1987-2011

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Marketing Month

$ Per Live Cwt

Source: John Lawrence, Iowa State University

Corn Price & Cost of Hog ProductionMonthly, 1987-2011

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7Hog CostCorn $

Source: John Lawrence, Iowa State University

Corn Price & Cost of Hog ProductionMonthly, 1987-2011

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7Hog CostCorn $

Source: Shane Ellis, Iowa State University

$6.70 corn implies hog cost at $68/cwt live or $89/cwt car.

Iowa Farrow to Finish Profits, 1997-2011Iowa State University Calculations

-70

-50

-30

-10

10

30

50

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

$ Per Head


Monthly Profit Per Pig

-80-60-40-20

020406097

&07

98&

08

99&

09

00&

10

01&

11

02&

12

Dollars 1997-02 2007-11


Correlation of Profit & Lagged Hog Slght

-20

-10

0

10

2082

-1

84-1

86-1

88-1

90-1

92-1

94-1

96-1

98-1

00-1

02-1

04-1

06-1

08-

1

10-

1

%ChDaHogSlt Lag 5 Qtr Profit

International Trade

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?s%5B1%5D%5Bid%5D=TWEXMMTH

U.S. Meat Exports, 2000-2011

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

800000

Jan-00

Jul Jan-01

Jul Jan-02

Jul Jan-03

Jul Jan-04

Jul Jan-05

Jul Jan-06

Jul Jan07

Jul Jan08

Jul Jan09

Jul Jan10

Jul Jan11

Ttho

usan

d po

unds

Beef Pork Broiler Turkey

U.S. Pork Imports & Exports

0500

1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,000

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Mill

ion

Poun

ds

Imports Exports

U.S. Pork Imports & Exports, 2000-2011Monthly Carcass Weight Equivalent

0

100

200

300

400

500

600Ja

n-00

Jan-

01

Jan-

02

Jan-

03

Jan-

04

Jan

-05

Jan

-06

Jan

07

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

-10

Jan

11

Mil. lbs.

Imports Exports

U.S. Pork Imports & Exports as % of U.S. Pork Production, 2006-2011

Monthly Carcass Weight Equivalent

0

5

10

15

20

25

30 J

an 0

6

APR JU

L

OC

T

Jan

07

APR JU

L

OC

T

Jan

08

APR JU

L

OC

T

Jan

09

Apr Ju

l

Oct

Jan

10

Apr Ju

l

Oct

Jan

11

Apr

% o

f Pro

duct

ion

Imports Exports

U.S. Pork Exports, 2006-2011Monthly Carcass Weight Equivalent

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160Ja

n-06

Jan-

07

Jan-

08

Jan

-09

Jan

-10

Jan

-11

Mil. lbs.

Japan Canada MexicoRussia S Korea China HK

Frozen Pork & U.S. Pork Exports, 2000-2011

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Jan-00

Jul Jan-01

Jul Jan-02

Jul Jan-03

Jul Jan-04

Jul Jan05

Jul Jan06

Jul Jan07

Jul Jan08

Jul Jan09

Jul Jan10

Jul Jan11

Jul

Mill

ion

poun

ds

Cold Storage Exports

U.S. Hog Imports from Canada

0100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,000700,000800,000

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Head per mo.

Slaughter Hogs Feeders Pigs

Meat Demand

U.S. Per Capita Meat Consumption

0102030405060708090

10019

45

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

Pounds Pork Beef Broilers Turkey Fish

Source: USDA/ERS


150160170180190200210220230240250

1945

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

Pounds

Source: USDA/ERS

Grains, Feed and Residual

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

819

78

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Bil. Bushels

DDGS

Wheat

Oats

Barley

Sorghum

Corn

Forecast Change in Meat Production

--Percent Change-- Type 2010-112011-12

Beef - 0.7% - 4.3%Pork +1.0% +1.6%Chicken +1.3% +1.0%Turkey +2.4% +0.4%All Meats +0.7% - 0.4%

Source: USDA-OCE WASDE, August 2011

Change in Retail Meat DemandBase Elasticity = - 0.75

-8-6-4-202468

1020

02 >

May

Sep

200

3M

aySe

p 2

004

May

Sep

2005

>M

aySe

p20

06 >

May

Sep

2007

>M

aySe

p20

08>

May

Sep

2009

>M

aySe

p20

10>

May

Sep

2011

>M

ay

% change from year ago

Source: Ron Plain, University of Missouri

Change in Pork DemandBase Elasticity = - 0.75

-12

-7

-2

3

8

2002

>M

aySe

p 2

003

May

Sep

200

4M

aySe

p20

05 >

May

Sep

2006

>M

aySe

p20

07>

May

Sep

2008

>M

aySe

p20

09>

May

Sep

2010

>M

aySe

p20

11>

May



Change in Pork Export DemandBase Elasticity = - 0.5

-50-30-101030507090

110

2002

>M

aySe

p 2

003

>M

aySe

p 2

004

>M

aySe

p20

05 >

May

Sep

2006

>M

aySe

p20

07>

May

Sep

2008

>M

aySe

p20

09>

May

Sep

2010

>M

aySe

p20

11>

May



Change in Hog DemandBase Elasticity = - 0.2

-12

-7

-2

3

8

13

1820

02 >

May

Sep

200

3M

aySe

p 2

004

May

Sep

2005

>M

aySe

p20

06 >

May

Sep

2007

>M

aySe

p20

08>

May

Sep

2009

>M

aySe

p20

10>

May

Sep

2011

>M

ay



Retail Boneless Pork Prices Retail Prices, Monthly, 2001-2011

250

300

350

400

450

500 2

001

>M

ay Sep

2002

>M

ay Sep

200

3 >

May Sep

200

4 >

May Sep

2005

>M

ay Sep

2006

>M

ay Sep

2007

>M

ay Sep

2008

>M

ay Sep

2009

>M

ay Sep

2010

>M

ay Sep

2011

>M

ay

Cents/lb

Bacon Chops Ham

Source: USDA/ERS

Growth in Real GDP

-10-8-6-4-20246

05-

1

05-

3

06-

1

06-

3

07-

1

07-

3

08-

1

08-

3

09-

1

09-

3

10-

1

10-

3

11-

1

Perc

ent C

hang

e

Source: U.S. Commerce Department

U.S. Unemployment Rate, Seasonally Adjusted, 1996-2011

3456789

1011

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Perc

ent

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Average Duration of Unemployment

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?s%5B1%5D%5Bid%5D=UEMPMEAN

Current Situation

• The government is broke, unemployment is high, the stock market has collapsed, the economy is barely growing, and consumer confidence is the lowest since May 1980.

• Needless to say, this is not good for domestic meat demand.

Inventory Surveys

U.S. Swine Breeding Herd, 1999-2011

5700

5800

5900

6000

6100

6200

6300

Dec 99

Dec 00

Dec 01

Dec 02

Dec 03

Dec 04

Dec 05

Dec 06

Dec 07

Dec 08

Dec

09

Dec

10

Tho

usan

d H

ead

Canadian Swine Breeding Herd, 2000-2011

1200

1250

1300

1350

1400

1450

1500

1550

1600

1650

1700

Jan 0

0

Jan 0

1

Jan 0

2

Jan 0

3

Jan 0

4

Jan 0

5

Jan 0

6

Jan 0

7

Jan 0

8

Jan 0

9

Jan 1

0

Jan 1

1

Tho

usan

d H

ead

Hog Inventory Reports U.S. June Canada April

All Hogs & Pigs 100.5 101.4 Kept for Breeding 100.3 99.6 Kept for Marketing 100.6 101.6 Under 50 lbs 100.1 101.3 50-119 lbs. 99.8 99.5 120-179 lbs. 103.3 104.0 180 lbs. and over 99.5 Sep-Nov Farrowings 98.8 98.6 Dec-Feb Farrowings 99.4 97.9 Mar-May Farrowings 98.2 100.7 Jun-Aug Farrowing Intentions 97.4 99.8 Sep-Nov Farrowing Intentions 98.9

Hog Inventory Reports U.S. June Canada April

All Hogs & Pigs 100.5 101.4 Kept for Breeding 100.3 99.6 Kept for Marketing 100.6 101.6 Under 50 lbs 100.1 101.3 50-119 lbs. 99.8 99.5 120-179 lbs. 103.3 104.0 180 lbs. and over 99.5 Sep-Nov Farrowings 98.8 98.6 Dec-Feb Farrowings 99.4 97.9 Mar-May Farrowings 98.2 100.7 Jun-Aug Farrowing Intentions 97.4 99.8 Sep-Nov Farrowing Intentions 98.9

Which is important? More sows or fewer litters?

Daily Hog Slaughter by Quarter

-10-8-6-4-202468

10D

JF99

DJF

00

DJF

01

DJF

02

DJF

03

DJF

04

DJF

05

DJF

06

DJF

07

DJF

08

DJF

09

DJF

10

DJF

11

% change from yr. ago

Breeding Herd by Quarter

-10-8-6-4-202468

10D

JF99

DJF

00

DJF

01

DJF

02

DJF

03

DJF

04

DJF

05

DJF

06

DJF

07

DJF

08

DJF

09

DJF

10

DJF

11


Hog Slaughter & Breeding Herd by Quarter

-10-8-6-4-202468

10D

JF99

DJF

00

DJF

01

DJF

02

DJF

03

DJF

04

DJF

05

DJF

06

DJF

07

DJF

08

DJF

09

DJF

10

DJF

11


Br Herd D Hog Slt

Correlation = 0.20

Sows Farrowed by Quarter

-10-8-6-4-202468

10D

JF99

DJF

00

DJF

01

DJF

02

DJF

03

DJF

04

DJF

05

DJF

06

DJF

07

DJF

08

DJF

09

DJF

10

DJF

11


Sows Farrowed & Hog Slaughter by Quarter

-10-8-6-4-202468

10D

JF99

DJF

00

DJF

01

DJF

02

DJF

03

DJF

04

DJF

05

DJF

06

DJF

07

DJF

08

DJF

09

DJF

10

DJF

11


Sows Far D Hog Slt

Correlation = 0.78

U.S. Sows Farrowed by Quarter

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10D

JF99

DJF

00

DJF

01

DJF

02

DJF

03

DJF

04

DJF

05

DJF

06

DJF

07

DJF

08

DJF

09

DJF

10

DJF

11


Canada Sows Farrowed by Quarter

-10

-5

0

5

10

15JF

M99

JFM

00

JFM

01

JFM

02

JFM

03

JFM

04

JFM

05

JFM

06

JFM

07

JFM

08

JFM

09

JFM

10

JFM

11


Sows Farrowed-U.S. & Canada Combined

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6D

JF99

DJF

00

DJF

01

DJF

02

DJF

03

DJF

04

DJF

05

DJF

06

DJF

07

DJF

08

DJF

09

DJF

10

DJF

11


Slaughter

Weekly F.I. Sow Slaughter

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

JAN

FEBMAR

APRMAY

JUN

JUL

AUGSEP

OCTNOV

DEC

Thousand Head

2010 2011

2011 sow slaughter is down 0.2%

Source: USDA/AMS

Slaughter of U.S. Sows

35

40

45

50

55

60

Thousand Head

2010 2011

2011 slaughter of U.S. sows is up 2.8%

Source: USDA/AMS

Weekly Slaughter of U.S. Sows

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

% o

f Inv

ento

ry

2010 2011

Source: USDA/AMS & Ron Plain

Estimated Gilt Retention & Sow Loss, 2010-11GG Cattle & Hog Fax

0

20

40

60

80

100

12020

10 Feb

Mar Apr

May Ju

n

Jul

Aug Se

p

Oct

Nov

Dec

2011 Feb

Mar Apr

May Ju

n

Jul

Thou

sand

Hea

d Pe

r Wee

k

Gilts RetainedSow Loss


Weekly Hog Slaughter

1.7

1.8

1.9

2

2.1

2.2

2.3

2.4

2.5Millions

2009 2010 2011

Source: USDA/AMS

Actual & Predicted Change in B&G SlaughterU.S. Weekly F.I. Hog Slaughter, 2011

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

820

11 Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug Se

p

Oct

Nov Dec


Actual USDA Jun Forecast

Hog Slaughter Plant Closings• February 2000 AVA Pork-Shamokin, PA• June 2000 Farmland-Dubuque, IA• July 2001 Excel-Marshall, MO• December 2001 AMPAC/Iowa Pork-Chicago, IL• January 2003 Hormel-Rochelle, IL• May 2004 RC Pork-Downs, KS• September 2005 Smithfield-Smithfield, VA• March 2006 Bryan Foods-West Point, MS• January 2009 Meadowbrook-Rantoul, IL• April 2010 Morrell-Sioux City, IA

Triumph plans to build in East Moline, someday

Gross Hog Packing Margin

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

$/head

Source: Ron Plain

Weekly Gross Pork Packer Margin, 200 Pound Carcass

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

JAN APR JUL OCT

$ pe

r Hea

d

Avg 02-09 2010 2011

Calculation: Byproduct + Cutout – Negotiated net

Productivity Growth

U.S. Pigs Per Litter by Quarter

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3D

JF99

DJF

00

DJF

01

DJF

02

DJF

03

DJF

04

DJF

05

DJF

06

DJF

07

DJF

08

DJF

09

DJF

10

DJF

11


Barrow & Gilt Live WeightsIowa-Minnesota Weekly Average

257

259

261

263

265

267

269

271

273

275

277Pounds

2008

2009

2010

2011

Source: USDA/AMS

Barrow & Gilt Live WeightsIowa-Minnesota Annual Average

220

230

240

250

260

270

28019

81

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

Pounds

Actual Trend

Weekly Pork Production

300320340360380400420440460480500

Jan Apr Jul Oct

Mill

ion

Poun

ds

2002-09 2010 2011

Source: USDA AMS

Prices

U.S. Retail Pork Prices, 2000-2011

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360Ja

n 00

Jan

01

Jan

02

Jan

03

Jan

04

Jan

05

Jan

06

Jan

07

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Cen

ts P

er P

ound

Retail Pork Prices

250260270280290300310320330340350

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cen

ts/p

ound

2000-08 2009 2010 2011

Source: BLS & USDA/ERS

Record high

Hog Cutout Value, Weekly

4550556065707580859095

100105110115

$ per cwt.

Avg.2004-082009

2010

2011

Source: USDA/AMS

Barrow & Gilt Negotiated Base Price

50556065707580859095

100


2002-09 2010 2011

Source: USDA Prior Day Slaughter reports

$/cwt

National Base Slaughter Hog Price, Weekly

4550556065707580859095

100105

$ per cwt.

Avg.2004-082009

2010

2011

Source: USDA Prior Day Purchased reports

10# Early Weaned Pigs, Delivered, Weekly

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60$ per head

Avg.2004-082009

2010

2011

Source: USDA/AMS

Pork Cutout and Hog Price, Weekly, 2009-2011

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

12020

09 Apr Ju

l

Oct

2010 Apr Ju

l

Oct

2011 Apr

$/cw

t

CutoutCarcass

Source: USDA/AMS

Hog Base Price as Percent of Pork Cutout, Weekly, 2008-2011

80

85

90

95

100

105

11020

08

2009

2010

2011

Perc

ent

Source: USDA/AMS

My Forecast

Commercial Hog Slaughter Forecast Million Head

*actual

2010 2011 2012

Qtr 1 27.630* 27.486* 27.450

Qtr 2 26.074* 26.113* 26.300

Qtr 3 26.930* 27.250 27.100

Qtr 4 29.626* 29.250 29.980

Year 110.260* 110.099 110.830

------Change------ 10-11 11-12.

- 0.5% - 0.1%

+ 0.2% +0.7%

+ 1.2% - 0.5%

- 1.3% +2.5%

- 0.1% +0.7%Note: Q1 10 & Q4 11 & Q3 12 have only 63 slaughter days

Iowa-Minn Hog Price ForecastNegotiated Base Price Per Carcass Hundredweight

2009 2010 2011 2012Qtr 1 $57.23* $66.81* $78.95* $80-84

Qtr 2 $57.32* $79.04* $91.80* $87-91

Qtr 3 $51.43* $79.44* $95-98 $86-90

Qtr 4 $54.98* $65.20* $80-84 $76-80

Year $55.23* $72.67* $86-88 $82-85*actual price – prior day purchased

Iowa-Minn Live Hog Price ForecastNegotiated Live Base Price Equivalent

2009 2010 2011 2012Qtr 1 $43.49* $50.78* $60.00* $61-64

Qtr 2 $43.56* $60.07* $69.77* $66-69

Qtr 3 $39.09* $60.37* $72-75 $65-68

Qtr 4 $41.78* $49.56* $61-64 $58-61

Year $41.97* $55.19* $66-68 $62-65

*actual carcass price x 76%

U.S. Hog Net Carcass Price, Monthly Average, 2002-2011

30405060708090

100110120

Jan

02

Jan

03

Jan

04

Jan

05

Jan

06

Jan

07

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

Dolla

rs P

er C

wt

Cash Futures

Thru Feb 2013 all hog futures contracts are above $80 per cwt

Major Uncertainties• Domestic meat demand• Exchange rates & exports• Feed costs• Governmental policy

– Bio fuels– GIPSA– Animal rights

Any Questions?

Omaha Corn Prices, Weekly, 2008-2011

2

3

4

5

6

7

820

08

2009

2010

2011

$/Bu

shel

Source: USDA/AMS

Frozen Pork, 2000-2011, Start of the Month

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

Jan00

JUL Jan01

JUL Jan02

JUL Jan03

Jul Jan04

Jul Jan05

Jul Jan06

Jul Jan07

Jul Jan08

Jul Jan09

Jul Jan10

Jul Jan11

Jul

Mill

ion

Poun

ds

U.S. Pork Exports, 2000-2011Monthly Carcass Weight Equivalent

0

100

200

300

400

500

600Ja

n-00

Jan-

01

Jan-

02

Jan-

03

Jan-

04

Jan

-05

Jan

-06

Jan

07

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

-10

Jan

11

Mil. lbs.

Change in Domestic Beef DemandBase Elasticity = -0.75

-10

-5

0

5

10

1520

02 Apr Ju

lO

ct20

03 Apr Ju

lO

ct20

04 Apr Ju

lO

ct20

05 Apr Ju

lO

ct20

06 Apr Ju

lO

ct20

07 Apr Ju

lO

ct20

08 Apr Ju

lO

ct20

09 Apr Ju

lO

ct20

10 Apr Ju

lO

ct20

11 Apr

% C

hang

e Y

ear

Ago


Sows Farrowed & Breeding Herd by Quarter

-10-8-6-4-202468

10D

JF99

DJF

00

DJF

01

DJF

02

DJF

03

DJF

04

DJF

05

DJF

06

DJF

07

DJF

08

DJF

09

DJF

10

DJF

11


Sows Far Br Herd

Sows Farrowed, Breeding Herd & Hog Slaughter by Quarter

-10-8-6-4-202468

10D

JF99

DJF

00

DJF

01

DJF

02

DJF

03

DJF

04

DJF

05

DJF

06

DJF

07

DJF

08

DJF

09

DJF

10

DJF

11


Sows Far Br Herd D Hog Slt

U.S. Swine Breeding Herd, 1999-2011

5700

5800

5900

6000

6100

6200

6300

Dec 99

Dec 00

Dec 01

Dec 02

Dec 03

Dec 04

Dec 05

Dec 06

Dec 07

Dec 08

Dec

09

Dec

10

Tho

usan

d H

ead

U.S. Sows Farrowed, 2000-11

2500

2600

2700

2800

2900

3000

3100

3200

3300

Mar 00

Mar 01

Mar 02

Mar 03

Mar 04

Mar 05

Mar 06

MAM 07

MAM 08

MAM 09

MAM10

MAM 11

Tho

usan

d H

ead

Barrow & Gilt Carcass WeightsU.S. Annual Average

160

165

170

175

180

185

190

195

200

205

21019

77

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

Pounds

Actual Trend

Barrow & Gilt Negotiated Live Price

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80


2004-07 2008 2009 2010 2011

Source: USDA Prior Day Purchased reports

$/cwt

MPR Negotiated Carcass Hog Prices, WCB minus ECB, Weekly, 2009-10

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2009 Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug Se

pO

ctN

ov Dec

2010 Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug Se

pO

ctN

ov Dec

$/cwt

Source: USDA/AMS Prior Day Purchased

U.S. Pork Exports, Jan-May 2011 Change From Year Ago Country 000 lbs Percent

Japan 80,639 14.8%Mexico 10,799 2.6%S. Korea 157,270 147.3%Canada 18,135 10.4%China & HongKong 49,624 37.4%Australia 17,748 25.6%Russia 39,504 125.3%TOTAL 315,257 17.9%

Source: USDA/ERS

U.S. Hog Imports & Exports

0

2

4

6

8

10

1219

80

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Mil. head

Imports Exports

2010 hog imports were down 10%


150160170180190200210220230240250

1945

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

Pounds

Source: USDA/ERS

Documents

Ron Plain D. Howard Doane Professor of Agricultural Economics University of Missouri-Columbia