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ROMANIA’sROMANIA’s GAS SHALE RESOURCES and GAS SHALE RESOURCES and ENERGY ENERGY
SECURITY in WEST BLACK SEA AREASECURITY in WEST BLACK SEA AREA
by
Bogdan Popescu – Zeta Petroleum (Romania)
and
Serban Veliciu - Center for Green Energy Information (Geneva)
In the early 2000 there was virtually no production from shales
Triggered by the US frantic activity (still world’s larger per-capita, energy consumer) unconventionals become a planetary stake with tens of billions of dollars in expenditure & revenue creating millions of new jobs;
Impact of unconventionals in US:
After ten years, US produced some 30% of their gas and 35%.% of oil from unconventional reservoirs, and;
As a consequence of low energy price, US is repatriating and expanding at a fast pace the fertiliser, chemical and other electricity-intensive industries as well as is seeing the manufacturing renaissance;
Increased use of natural gas in power generation is driving down CO2 emissions in US at the level of 1992 (or of 1961 considering the increase in population since 1992!)
Impact of unconventionals in the rest of the World: so far minimal!
In the early 2000’s the conventional oil & gas peaked (US: in 1975!) and companies have had increasingly lower rates of reserve replacement;
Stern competition for oil & gas supplies much greater than before;
About the same period, Mitchell Energy proved that the Barnett Shale, a huge unconventional play, can yield commercial oil;
Next because of industry fast reaping benefits of advanced technologies in the long time used horizontal drilling (1980’s) and hydraulic fracturing (1940’s) methods;
Followed by unparalleled success driven by a paradigm shift created an ebb tide effect around the globe by nurturing interest in shale potential worldwide;
Conventional Unconventional
Preferred Trap Type Structural, constrained size
Stratigraphic, continuous play
2D Trap Size Small Huge
Common Reservoir Lithology
Sandstones and Carbonates
Mudstones, Tight Sandstones and Tight Carbonates, Tar sands,
Reservoir Permeability Millidarcies Nanodarcies
Geological Risk High Low
Common Well Type Vertical Horizontal
Net Energy Factor (EROEI) 10:1 up to 100:1 1.5:1 up to 15:1 (est)
E&P Expense Low High
WHAT THE UNCONVENTIONALS WHAT THE UNCONVENTIONALS ARE ARE ??
: a Revolution in the Reservoir Evaluation
modified from Beaumont 2013 , Hall 2008
YES if:
Current oil and gas prices are maintained
Substantial amounts of reserves are proved
Net energy factor averages at least 10:1
Acceptable environmental and social impact
Low geopolitical impact
Major Major Unconventional Unconventional
NNatural atural GGas Resources as Resources
Basins of the Central Basins of the Central
and Eastern Europeand Eastern Europe
after : World Energy Outlook Special
Report on Unconventional Gas: “Golden
Rules for a Golden Age of Gas”,
by U. S. Energy Information Administration 2012
MOLDOVA
MOESIA
Assessed areas
TTececttoonnics ofics of tthhee CCaarrppaatthihiaan Foreland n Foreland (from Sandulescu and Visarion 1988)
Extension (aborted rifting)
Compression (Cimmerian
fault-bend folds)
Passive Margin
Final docking of
Carpathians to Platform
Multi-phase
Com
pre
ssio
n w
ith
Fle
xura
l E
xte
nsio
n
Moesian Moesian Platform Stratigraphy Platform Stratigraphy and and Petroleum SystePetroleum Systems ms
(from Tari et al 2011)
Unconventional shale
gas target?
Exhumation
Extension
Foreland
Unconventional shale
gas target?
Permian Subcrop Map Showing Main Moesia’s Paleozoic Basin Permian Subcrop Map Showing Main Moesia’s Paleozoic Basin
Features Features (updated from Seghedi et al 2005)
MMooesianesian PlPlaattfform orm -- IIssopachopach andand FFacies of theacies of the SiluriSiluriaann TandareiTandarei FmFm
(modified from A.Seghedi, 2004)
Lom-Bailesti Play
Calarasi-S Dobrogea Play
Optasi-Alexandria Play
East European Platform East European Platform
Stratigraphy, Tectonics & Stratigraphy, Tectonics &
Hydrocarbon Occurrences Hydrocarbon Occurrences
Siret Paleozoic Sub-basin (Moldavian Ptf.)
and the Barlad Half Graben (Scythian Ptf.)
Isopach Map of Isopach Map of
Silurian and Silurian and
Ordovician Ordovician
Formations fromFormations from
Moldavian Moldavian
PlatformPlatform
and Scythian and Scythian
PlatformPlatform
HI vs. Tmax HI vs. Calculated Vitrinite Reflectance Equivalent.
Gray - US wells;
Red - Optasi Uplift;
Blue - S Dobrogea;
Green - Calarasi Sb;
Pink - Lom-Bailesti Sb;
Brown - Bordei Verde Uplft
Gray - US wells;
Red - Optasi Uplift;
Blue - S Dobrogea;
Green - Calarasi Sb;
Pink - Lom-Bailesti Sb;
Brown - Bordei Verde Uplft
AssAsseessment Methods Rssment Methods Recomecommmendedended by Pby Peeeerr--rerevviieeww
(US Geological Survey, EIA 2011):
Volumetric (the assessment uses a geology-based methodology)
Assessment method used for this study:
Volumetric calculation formulas were applied by EIA in:
World Shale Gas Resources: An Initial Assessment of 14 Regions Outside the United
States, 2011
The calculation of free gas in-place (GIP) uses the following standard reservoir engineering equation:
Adsorbd gas in-place is calculated using the formula below (where P is original reservoir pressure).
GC = (VL * P) / (PL + P)
Material balance (p/z-plots)
Analogy
Decline curves
History matching
Type curves
MoeMoessia ia -- ShaleShale GGaas s RResesoouurrcesces of theof the PPaalleeoozzoicoic PPllaayyss
PLAYS
Lom-Bailesti
Optasi Uplift
(Alexandria margin)
Calarasi and
Dobrogea
Assessment
hypothesis
Pesimistic
Mean
Optimistic
Pesimistic
Mean
Optimistic
Pesimistic
Mean
Optimistic
Re
sou
rces
Original
gas in
place
OGIP (Tcf)
29
687
579
Technically
recoverable
(Tcf)
0.3
0.6
0.9
6.9
13.7
20.6
5.8
11.6
17.4
R
e
s
o
u
r
c
e
s
(Scithyan Pltf.)
MoldMoldaaviviaan/Scythiann/Scythian PlPlaattfforms orms -- ShaleShale GGaas s RResesoouurrcesces of theof the
PPaalleeoozzoicoic PlPlaayys s
PLAYS
Siret Paleozoic Sub-basin
(Moldavian Pltf.)
Barlad Half Graben
Assessment hypothesis
Pessimistic
(P10)
Mean
(P50)
Optimistic
(P90)
Pessimistic
(P10)
Mean
(P50)
Optimistic
(P90)
Original gas in
place
OGIP (Tcf)
271.74
7.30
Technically
recoverable
(Tcf)
2.71
5.43
8.15
0.07
0.15
0.22
ARE ROMANIA’s GAS SHALE RESOURCES IMPACTING on ARE ROMANIA’s GAS SHALE RESOURCES IMPACTING on
NATIONALNATIONAL ENERGY SECURITYENERGY SECURITY** ??
The possible 950 Bcm technically recoverable resources, or 60 years of
production at current levels could bring self sufficiency and gas exports !
Let’s explore for them first!
ARE ROMANIA’s GAS SHALE RESOURCES IMPACTING on ARE ROMANIA’s GAS SHALE RESOURCES IMPACTING on WEST WEST
BLACK SEA AREABLACK SEA AREA ENERGY SECURITY ?ENERGY SECURITY ?
See above!
However Romania is already a major stakeholder of conventional energy
production in this area and could sooner become an exporter of it
* Romania has a strategic problem for years now” PM of Romania in a TV interview
about the opportunity of shale gas exploration in the country. March 1st, 2013
Forecast of Forecast of RomaniaRomania Conventional Gas Exporting Capacity to 2030Conventional Gas Exporting Capacity to 2030
SILURIAN
SHALE
PLAY
Boreholes in the Moesian platform that bottomed in Boreholes in the Moesian platform that bottomed in
Paleozoic formations Paleozoic formations (from Seghedi et al., 2005)
Yet it seems only the dispersed politics is the main impediment to
unconventional oil and gas exploration in Europe
