27
Romania real convergence on the way to euro adoption Ionut Dumitru Ionut Dumitru President of the Fiscal Council and Chief-economist, Raiffeisen Bank Romania June 2014

Romania – real convergence on the way to euro adoption€¦ · Public policies make a difference 27.0 24.4 41.2 30.8 41.4 58.3 42.1 46.5 57.8 28.3 22.3 47.1 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

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  • Romania – real convergenceon the way to euro adoption

    Ionut DumitruPresident of the Fiscal Council and

    Chief-economist, Raiffeisen Bank Romania

    June 2014

    Romania – real convergenceon the way to euro adoption

    Ionut DumitruPresident of the Fiscal Council and

    Chief-economist, Raiffeisen Bank Romania

    June 2014

  • Eurozone enlargement – current status

    Initial target Date of setting the target Current targetBulgaria 2010 2004 no target dateCroatia 2019 no target dateCzech Republic 2009/2010 2003 no target dateHungary 2008 2003 no target dateLithuania 2007 2004 2015Poland 2008/2009 2003 no target dateRomania 2014 2007 2019Denmark no target not obliged to joinSweden no target de facto opt-outUnited Kingdom no target not obliged to join

    Source: European Commission

    Initial target Date of setting the target Current targetBulgaria 2010 2004 no target dateCroatia 2019 no target dateCzech Republic 2009/2010 2003 no target dateHungary 2008 2003 no target dateLithuania 2007 2004 2015Poland 2008/2009 2003 no target dateRomania 2014 2007 2019Denmark no target not obliged to joinSweden no target de facto opt-outUnited Kingdom no target not obliged to join

  • Public policies make a difference

    27.024.4

    41.2

    30.8

    41.4

    58.3

    42.1

    46.5

    57.8

    28.3

    22.3

    47.1

    20

    25

    30

    35

    40

    45

    50

    55

    60

    19

    90

    19

    91

    19

    92

    19

    93

    19

    94

    19

    95

    19

    96

    19

    97

    19

    98

    19

    99

    20

    00

    20

    01

    20

    02

    20

    03

    20

    04

    20

    05

    20

    06

    20

    07

    20

    08

    20

    09

    20

    10

    20

    11

    20

    12

    20

    13

    GDP per capita in PPS(% of average for Germany and France)

    Bulgaria Poland Hungary Romania

    Source: European Commission

    27.024.4

    41.2

    30.8

    41.4

    58.3

    42.1

    46.5

    57.8

    28.3

    22.3

    47.1

    20

    25

    30

    35

    40

    45

    50

    55

    60

    19

    90

    19

    91

    19

    92

    19

    93

    19

    94

    19

    95

    19

    96

    19

    97

    19

    98

    19

    99

    20

    00

    20

    01

    20

    02

    20

    03

    20

    04

    20

    05

    20

    06

    20

    07

    20

    08

    20

    09

    20

    10

    20

    11

    20

    12

    20

    13

    GDP per capita in PPS(% of average for Germany and France)

    Bulgaria Poland Hungary Romania

  • Real convergence: not a one way street

    50

    60

    70

    80

    90

    100

    110

    120

    130

    140

    19

    90

    19

    91

    19

    92

    19

    93

    19

    94

    19

    95

    19

    96

    19

    97

    19

    98

    19

    99

    20

    00

    20

    01

    20

    02

    20

    03

    20

    04

    20

    05

    20

    06

    20

    07

    20

    08

    20

    09

    20

    10

    20

    11

    20

    12

    20

    13

    GDP per capita in PPS(% of average for Germany and France)

    Italy Ireland Portugal Spain Greece

    Source: European Commission

    50

    60

    70

    80

    90

    100

    110

    120

    130

    140

    19

    90

    19

    91

    19

    92

    19

    93

    19

    94

    19

    95

    19

    96

    19

    97

    19

    98

    19

    99

    20

    00

    20

    01

    20

    02

    20

    03

    20

    04

    20

    05

    20

    06

    20

    07

    20

    08

    20

    09

    20

    10

    20

    11

    20

    12

    20

    13

    GDP per capita in PPS(% of average for Germany and France)

    Italy Ireland Portugal Spain Greece

  • Euro area enlargement: euro adoptedrecently only by small countries

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    12

    14

    Ma

    lta

    Cy

    pru

    s

    Esto

    nia

    Latv

    ia

    Slo

    ven

    ia

    Slo

    vak

    ia

    Ro

    ma

    nia

    Lith

    ua

    nia

    Bu

    lga

    ria

    Hu

    ng

    ary

    Cze

    ch R

    epu

    blic

    Po

    lan

    d

    Po

    rtu

    ga

    l

    Gre

    ece

    Spa

    in

    Stable population in 2013 (% of Euro area)

    Gross domestic Product in 2013 (% of Euro area)

    Euro adoption years:

    2007: Slovenia

    2008: Malta, Cyprus

    2009: Slovakia

    2011: Estonia

    2014: Latvia

    Source: European Commission, Eurostat

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    12

    14

    Ma

    lta

    Cy

    pru

    s

    Esto

    nia

    Latv

    ia

    Slo

    ven

    ia

    Slo

    vak

    ia

    Ro

    ma

    nia

    Lith

    ua

    nia

    Bu

    lga

    ria

    Hu

    ng

    ary

    Cze

    ch R

    epu

    blic

    Po

    lan

    d

    Po

    rtu

    ga

    l

    Gre

    ece

    Spa

    in

    Stable population in 2013 (% of Euro area)

    Gross domestic Product in 2013 (% of Euro area)

    Euro adoption years:

    2007: Slovenia

    2008: Malta, Cyprus

    2009: Slovakia

    2011: Estonia

    2014: Latvia

  • Euro area enlargement: deep foreign tradeintegration for Euro area late comers

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    120

    Spa

    in

    Po

    rtu

    ga

    l

    Gre

    ece

    Slo

    ven

    ia

    Cy

    pru

    s

    Ma

    lta

    Slo

    vak

    ia

    Esto

    nia

    Latv

    ia

    Ro

    ma

    nia

    Lith

    ua

    nia

    Bu

    lga

    ria

    Hu

    ng

    ary

    Cze

    ch R

    epu

    blic

    Po

    lan

    d

    1999 2001 2007 2008 2008 2009 2011 2013 2013 2013

    Exports of goods and services (% of GDP)

    Exports towards EU member countries (% of GDP)* Exports towards non EU member countries (% of GDP)*

    Total exports of goods and services in 2013 (% of GDP)

    Source: European Commission, Eurostat, Raiffeisen RESEARCH

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    120

    Spa

    in

    Po

    rtu

    ga

    l

    Gre

    ece

    Slo

    ven

    ia

    Cy

    pru

    s

    Ma

    lta

    Slo

    vak

    ia

    Esto

    nia

    Latv

    ia

    Ro

    ma

    nia

    Lith

    ua

    nia

    Bu

    lga

    ria

    Hu

    ng

    ary

    Cze

    ch R

    epu

    blic

    Po

    lan

    d

    1999 2001 2007 2008 2008 2009 2011 2013 2013 2013

    Exports of goods and services (% of GDP)

    Exports towards EU member countries (% of GDP)* Exports towards non EU member countries (% of GDP)*

    Total exports of goods and services in 2013 (% of GDP)

    * computed in the year of Euro adoption for new Euro area member countries and in 2013 for non Euro area member countries

  • Euro area enlargement: high GDP per capitaat the moment of euro adoption

    81

    6974

    7984

    73

    6559 60

    Spa

    in

    Po

    rtu

    ga

    l

    Gre

    ece

    Slo

    ven

    ia

    Cy

    pru

    s

    Ma

    lta

    Slo

    vak

    ia

    Esto

    nia

    Latv

    ia1999 2001 2007 2008 2008 2009 2011 2014

    GDP per capita in PPS as % of Germany+France inthe year of accession in Euro area

    Source: Eurostat, Raiffeisen RESEARCH

    81

    6974

    7984

    73

    6559 60

    Spa

    in

    Po

    rtu

    ga

    l

    Gre

    ece

    Slo

    ven

    ia

    Cy

    pru

    s

    Ma

    lta

    Slo

    vak

    ia

    Esto

    nia

    Latv

    ia1999 2001 2007 2008 2008 2009 2011 2014

    GDP per capita in PPS as % of Germany+France inthe year of accession in Euro area

  • Real convergence in Romania by 2019:some scenarios

    Reference period Romania Germany+France2001-2008 12.0 2.92001-2013 8.4 2.42006-2013 7.5 2.12009-2013 2.9 1.42011-2013 4.5 2.3

    Scenarios for period 2014-2019

    GDP per capita inRomania in 2019 (% of

    Germany and France)

    Scenario 1 4.5 2.0 54Scenario 2 6.0 2.0 59Scenario 3 7.0 2.0 63

    GDP per capita at PPS (%yoy, average for period)

    54

    47

    59

    63

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    70

    20

    00

    20

    01

    20

    02

    20

    03

    20

    04

    20

    05

    20

    06

    20

    07

    20

    08

    20

    09

    20

    10

    20

    11

    20

    12

    20

    13

    20

    14

    20

    15

    20

    16

    20

    17

    20

    18

    20

    19

    GDP per capita at PPS in Romania(% of Germany+France)

    Scenario 1: +3.0% per year growth in GDP per capita at PPS

    Scenario 2: +4.5% per year growth in GDP per capita at PPS

    Scenario 3: +6.0% per year growth in GDP per capita at PPS

    Source: European Commission, Eurostat, own computation

    Reference period Romania Germany+France2001-2008 12.0 2.92001-2013 8.4 2.42006-2013 7.5 2.12009-2013 2.9 1.42011-2013 4.5 2.3

    Scenarios for period 2014-2019

    GDP per capita inRomania in 2019 (% of

    Germany and France)

    Scenario 1 4.5 2.0 54Scenario 2 6.0 2.0 59Scenario 3 7.0 2.0 63

    GDP per capita at PPS (%yoy, average for period)

    Real GDP should grow by at least 4% onaverage per year to be in Scenario 2.

    54

    47

    59

    63

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    70

    20

    00

    20

    01

    20

    02

    20

    03

    20

    04

    20

    05

    20

    06

    20

    07

    20

    08

    20

    09

    20

    10

    20

    11

    20

    12

    20

    13

    20

    14

    20

    15

    20

    16

    20

    17

    20

    18

    20

    19

    GDP per capita at PPS in Romania(% of Germany+France)

    Scenario 1: +3.0% per year growth in GDP per capita at PPS

    Scenario 2: +4.5% per year growth in GDP per capita at PPS

    Scenario 3: +6.0% per year growth in GDP per capita at PPS

  • Scarce net inflows of foreign capital toprivate sector, slow recovery pace

    -10

    -5

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    20

    00

    20

    01

    20

    02

    20

    03

    20

    04

    20

    05

    20

    06

    20

    07

    20

    08

    20

    09

    20

    10

    20

    11

    20

    12

    20

    13

    Net FDIs (% of GDP)

    Net loans, deposits (% of GDP)

    Total inflows of foreign capital in private sector (% of GDP)

    -9

    -6

    -3

    0

    3

    6

    9

    12

    02

    Q1

    03

    Q1

    04

    Q1

    05

    Q1

    06

    Q1

    07

    Q1

    08

    Q1

    09

    Q1

    10

    Q1

    11

    Q1

    12

    Q1

    13

    Q1

    14

    Q1

    Real GDP excluding agriculture (% yoy)

    7.3% per year

    2.1% per year

    Source: National Bank of Romania, National Institute of Statistics

    Note: net inflows of foreign capital in the private sector; portfolioinflows excluded

    -10

    -5

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    20

    00

    20

    01

    20

    02

    20

    03

    20

    04

    20

    05

    20

    06

    20

    07

    20

    08

    20

    09

    20

    10

    20

    11

    20

    12

    20

    13

    Net FDIs (% of GDP)

    Net loans, deposits (% of GDP)

    Total inflows of foreign capital in private sector (% of GDP)

    -9

    -6

    -3

    0

    3

    6

    9

    12

    02

    Q1

    03

    Q1

    04

    Q1

    05

    Q1

    06

    Q1

    07

    Q1

    08

    Q1

    09

    Q1

    10

    Q1

    11

    Q1

    12

    Q1

    13

    Q1

    14

    Q1

    Real GDP excluding agriculture (% yoy)

    7.3% per year

    2.1% per year

  • Much stronger progress in absorptionof EU funds is needed

    8579

    71 6964 62

    57 53 5245

    Esto

    nia

    Lith

    ua

    nia

    Po

    lan

    d

    Latv

    ia

    Slo

    ven

    ia

    Hu

    ng

    ary

    Cze

    ch R

    epu

    blic

    Slo

    vak

    ia

    Bu

    lga

    ria

    Ro

    ma

    nia

    Money paid by European Commission (% of totalallocations 2007-2013)

    40.2

    33.9

    Ap

    r-1

    4

    Ma

    r-1

    4

    Dec

    -13

    Sep

    -13

    Jun

    -13

    Ma

    r-1

    3

    Dec

    -12

    Sep

    -12

    Jun

    -12

    Ma

    r-1

    2

    Dec

    -11

    Sep

    -11

    Jun

    -11

    Ma

    r-1

    1

    Romania: progress with absorbption ofEU Structural Funds

    Payments to final beneficiaries, including advances (% oftotal allocations for 2007-2013)

    Interim (recognized) payments from the EU (% of totalallocations for 2007-2013)

    Utilizarea Fondurilor Structurale permite (1) cresterea potentialului de crestere economica si (2)acoperirea necesarului de finantare externa al tarii

    Source: European Commission

    Note: Transfers refer both to interim (recognized)payments and advances; most recent data madepublic by the European Commission; Data refer to15 April 2014

    8579

    71 6964 62

    57 53 5245

    Esto

    nia

    Lith

    ua

    nia

    Po

    lan

    d

    Latv

    ia

    Slo

    ven

    ia

    Hu

    ng

    ary

    Cze

    ch R

    epu

    blic

    Slo

    vak

    ia

    Bu

    lga

    ria

    Ro

    ma

    nia

    Money paid by European Commission (% of totalallocations 2007-2013)

    40.2

    33.9

    Ap

    r-1

    4

    Ma

    r-1

    4

    Dec

    -13

    Sep

    -13

    Jun

    -13

    Ma

    r-1

    3

    Dec

    -12

    Sep

    -12

    Jun

    -12

    Ma

    r-1

    2

    Dec

    -11

    Sep

    -11

    Jun

    -11

    Ma

    r-1

    1

    Romania: progress with absorbption ofEU Structural Funds

    Payments to final beneficiaries, including advances (% oftotal allocations for 2007-2013)

    Interim (recognized) payments from the EU (% of totalallocations for 2007-2013)

  • Potential agricol ridicat...

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    12

    14

    16

    18

    20

    Fra

    nta

    Ger

    ma

    nia

    Spa

    nia

    Po

    lon

    ia

    Ro

    ma

    nia

    Ita

    lia

    Ma

    rea

    Bri

    tan

    ie

    Un

    ga

    ria

    Bu

    lga

    ria

    Sued

    ia

    Ceh

    ia

    Da

    nem

    arc

    a

    Suprafata arabila in 2010 (milioane hectare)

    0

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    6

    7

    8

    9

    10

    Fra

    nta

    Po

    lon

    ia

    Ger

    ma

    nia

    Spa

    nia

    Ro

    ma

    nia

    Ita

    lia

    Ma

    rea

    Bri

    tan

    ie

    Un

    ga

    ria

    Bu

    lga

    ria

    Da

    nem

    arc

    a

    Ceh

    ia

    Litu

    an

    ia

    Suprafata cultivata cu cereale in 2010(milioane hectare)

    Romania ocupa un loc

    important in Uniunea

    Europeana din punct de

    vedere al suprafetelor

    agricole si al ocuparii in

    agricultura

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    12

    14

    16

    18

    20

    Fra

    nta

    Ger

    ma

    nia

    Spa

    nia

    Po

    lon

    ia

    Ro

    ma

    nia

    Ita

    lia

    Ma

    rea

    Bri

    tan

    ie

    Un

    ga

    ria

    Bu

    lga

    ria

    Sued

    ia

    Ceh

    ia

    Da

    nem

    arc

    a

    Suprafata arabila in 2010 (milioane hectare)

    0

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    6

    7

    8

    9

    10

    Fra

    nta

    Po

    lon

    ia

    Ger

    ma

    nia

    Spa

    nia

    Ro

    ma

    nia

    Ita

    lia

    Ma

    rea

    Bri

    tan

    ie

    Un

    ga

    ria

    Bu

    lga

    ria

    Da

    nem

    arc

    a

    Ceh

    ia

    Litu

    an

    ia

    Suprafata cultivata cu cereale in 2010(milioane hectare)

    Romania ocupa un loc

    important in Uniunea

    Europeana din punct de

    vedere al suprafetelor

    agricole si al ocuparii in

    agricultura

    Sursa: Eurostat, Institutul National de Statsitica , Raiffeisen RESEARCH

    0

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    6

    7

    RO BG LV HU HR EE LT PL GR SK SL FI CY ES

    VAB in agricultura in 2013 (% din totalVAB in economie )

    Medie UE =1.7

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    35

    RO BG PL GR PT LT SL LV HU IE EE FI AT ES CY

    Populatia ocupata in agricultura in 2012

    Salariati (% din total persoane ocupate in economie)

    Auto-ocupare (% din total persoane ocupate in economie)

    UniuneaEuropeana =5.2%

  • ... dar insuficient valorificat - problemestructurale in agricultura

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    70

    80

    90

    100

    RO GR SL HR IT PL LT PT

    HU

    BG ES AT

    LV NL

    CH EE SK NO SE FR FI IE DE

    UK CZ

    DK

    Structura suprafetei agricole utilizata dupamarimea exploatatiei in 2010 (% din total)

    Peste 50 ha

    20-50 ha

    10-20 ha

    5-10 ha

    0-5 ha

    Impact puternic al conditiilor climaterice asupra productiei agricole Segmentare importanta a exploatatiilor agricole (lipsa cadastrului) Agricultura de subzistenta detine o pondere importanta Romania este importator net de produse agroalimentare (exclusiv cereale)

    80

    85

    90

    95

    100

    105

    110

    115

    120

    19

    95

    19

    96

    19

    97

    19

    98

    19

    99

    20

    00

    20

    01

    20

    02

    20

    03

    20

    04

    20

    05

    20

    06

    20

    07

    20

    08

    20

    09

    20

    10

    20

    11

    20

    12

    20

    13

    Valoarea adaugata bruta in agricultura (termeni reali,2003=100)

    Medie 1995-2013

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    70

    80

    90

    100

    RO GR SL HR IT PL LT PT

    HU

    BG ES AT

    LV NL

    CH EE SK NO SE FR FI IE DE

    UK CZ

    DK

    Structura suprafetei agricole utilizata dupamarimea exploatatiei in 2010 (% din total)

    Peste 50 ha

    20-50 ha

    10-20 ha

    5-10 ha

    0-5 ha

    Sursa: Eurostat, Institutul National de Statsitica , Raiffeisen RESEARCH

    80

    85

    90

    95

    100

    105

    110

    115

    120

    19

    95

    19

    96

    19

    97

    19

    98

    19

    99

    20

    00

    20

    01

    20

    02

    20

    03

    20

    04

    20

    05

    20

    06

    20

    07

    20

    08

    20

    09

    20

    10

    20

    11

    20

    12

    20

    13

    Valoarea adaugata bruta in agricultura (termeni reali,2003=100)

    Medie 1995-2013

  • Cresterea eficientei cheltuielilor de investitiipublice este absolut necesara

    0

    0.5

    1

    1.5

    2

    2.5

    3

    3.5

    4

    4.5

    5

    Rom

    ania

    Esto

    nia

    Czec

    h Re

    publ

    icPo

    land

    Luxe

    mbo

    urg

    Bulg

    aria

    Lith

    uani

    aHu

    ngar

    ySl

    oven

    iaIre

    land

    Icel

    and

    Latv

    iaNe

    ther

    land

    sSp

    ain

    Mal

    taCr

    oatia

    Cypr

    usPo

    rtug

    alSw

    eden

    Fran

    ceNo

    rway

    Gree

    ceFi

    nlan

    dEU

    28EU

    18Sl

    ovak

    iaSw

    itzer

    land Italy

    Denm

    ark

    Unite

    d Ki

    ngdo

    mBe

    lgiu

    mGe

    rman

    yAu

    stria

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

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    Cheltuieli publice de investitii (% din PIB, medie anuala, 2000-2013) Cheltuieli publice de investitii (% din veniturile bugetare, medie anuala,2000-2013)

    0

    1

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    DE FR UK NL ES LU AT

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    Scor privind calitatea infrastructurii de transport(WEF, 2012-2013)

    Resurse financiare mari alocate pentru cheltuielile publice deinvestitii, dar:

    exista un sentiment puternic ca progresele facute indomeniul infrastructurii au fost foarte mici

    infrastructura slaba ramane o problema esentiala pentruRomania

    Necesitatea prioritizarii investitiilor si atragerii sectorului privat(parteneriate publice-private)

    Sursa: Eurostat, World Economic Forum, The Global Competitiveness Report 2012-2013

    0

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    UE-27 Romania Bulgaria Cehia Ungaria Polonia Slovacia

    Structura cheltuielilor bugetare dupa clasificatia functionala, 2012

    Resurse reduse alocate sanatatii si educatiei% din PIB, medie 2000-2012 Sanatate EducatieEU 27 6.94 5.27EU 18 6.92 4.94Bulgaria 4.38 3.94Czech Republic 7.23 4.68Hungary 5.26 5.50Poland 4.62 5.78Romania 3.38 3.75Slovakia 5.90 3.88

    0%

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    UE-27 Romania Bulgaria Cehia Ungaria Polonia Slovacia

    Sursa: EUROSTAT

  • Eficienta energetica scazuta a economiei

    Eficienta energetica a economiei s-a imbunatatit, dar ramane redusa comparativ cu celelalte

    economii din Uniunea Europeana

    Cresterea eficientei energetice a economiei permite cresterea competitivitatii acesteia, inclusiv

    reducerea importurilor de produse energetice

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    600

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    20

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    02

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    05

    20

    06

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    07

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    08

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    09

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    20

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    Gross inland consumption of energy divided byGDP (kg of oil equivalent per 1 000 EUR)

    0

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    Gross inland consumption of energy divided by GDP (kgof oil equivalent per 1 000 EUR) in 2012

    Sursa: Eurostat , Raiffeisen RESEARCH

    0

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    300

    400

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    20

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    Gross inland consumption of energy divided byGDP (kg of oil equivalent per 1 000 EUR)

    0

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    Bu

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    Gross inland consumption of energy divided by GDP (kgof oil equivalent per 1 000 EUR) in 2012

  • Ineficienta companiilor de stat reprezinta oproblema serioasa

    Structura arieratele companiilor dinRomania (% din total, decembrie 2012)

    Desi contribuie cu doar circa 7% la valoarea adaugata din economie,companiile de stat contribuie cu circa 24% la totalul arieratelor din economie

    13.3

    14.1

    13.7

    12.2

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    8.2

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    8.1 9.0

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    44.3

    34.8 39

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    27.8 3

    4.9

    28.5

    27.0 31

    .1

    68.9

    52.0

    46.2 5

    2.4

    0.00

    10.00

    20.00

    30.00

    40.00

    50.00

    60.00

    70.00

    80.00

    2000

    2001

    2002

    2003

    2004

    2005

    2006

    2007

    2008

    2009

    2010

    2011

    2012

    Arierate/CA Companii private (%)

    Arierate/CA Companii de stat (%)

    0%

    20%

    40%

    60%

    80%

    100%

    Companii de stat Companii private

    Banci

    Furnizori

    Bugetul generalconsolidat

    Sursa: Consiliul Fiscal

    13.3

    14.1

    13.7

    12.2

    10.0

    8.2

    6.9

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    .1

    68.9

    52.0

    46.2 5

    2.4

    0.00

    10.00

    20.00

    30.00

    40.00

    50.00

    60.00

    70.00

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    2000

    2001

    2002

    2003

    2004

    2005

    2006

    2007

    2008

    2009

    2010

    2011

    2012

    Arierate/CA Companii private (%)

    Arierate/CA Companii de stat (%)

    0%

    20%

    40%

    60%

    80%

    100%

    Companii de stat Companii private

    Banci

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    Bugetul generalconsolidat

  • Competitivitatea economiei este unarelativ scazuta

  • World Bank Doing Business Report – Ranking (out of 189 countries)

    Ease of DoingBusiness

    Starting aBusiness

    Dealingwith

    Construction

    Permits

    Registering Property

    GettingCredit

    ProtectingInvestors

    PayingTaxes

    TradingAcross

    Borders

    EnforcingContracts

    Rank Rank RankProcedure

    s(number)

    Time(days)

    Cost (% ofincome

    per capita)Rank Rank Rank Rank Rank Rank Rank

    Time(years)

    Cost (%of

    estate)

    Recoveryrate (cents

    on thedollar)

    Rank

    UnitedStates

    4 20 34 4 60 16 13 25 3 6 64 22 11 1.5 7 81.5 17

    Germany 21 111 12 3 17 47 3 81 28 98 89 14 5 1.2 8 82.9 13Poland 45 116 88 6 161 205 137 54 3 52 113 49 55 3.0 15 54.8 37Slovak

    Republic49 108 53 5 158 11 65 11 42 115 102 108 65 4.0 18 54.1 38

    Hungary 54 59 47 5 252 116 112 45 55 128 124 70 15 2.0 14.5 38.3 70Bulgaria 58 65 118 6 130 320 135 62 28 52 81 79 79 3.3 9 32.6 92Romania 73 60 136 7 223 534 174 70 13 52 134 76 53 3.3 10.5 30.0 99

    CzechRepublic

    75 146 86 6 279 179 146 37 55 98 122 68 75 2.1 17 65.0 29

    Getting Electricity Resolving InsolvencyEase of DoingBusiness

    Starting aBusiness

    Dealingwith

    Construction

    Permits

    Registering Property

    GettingCredit

    ProtectingInvestors

    PayingTaxes

    TradingAcross

    Borders

    EnforcingContracts

    Rank Rank RankProcedure

    s(number)

    Time(days)

    Cost (% ofincome

    per capita)Rank Rank Rank Rank Rank Rank Rank

    Time(years)

    Cost (%of

    estate)

    Recoveryrate (cents

    on thedollar)

    Rank

    UnitedStates

    4 20 34 4 60 16 13 25 3 6 64 22 11 1.5 7 81.5 17

    Germany 21 111 12 3 17 47 3 81 28 98 89 14 5 1.2 8 82.9 13Poland 45 116 88 6 161 205 137 54 3 52 113 49 55 3.0 15 54.8 37Slovak

    Republic49 108 53 5 158 11 65 11 42 115 102 108 65 4.0 18 54.1 38

    Hungary 54 59 47 5 252 116 112 45 55 128 124 70 15 2.0 14.5 38.3 70Bulgaria 58 65 118 6 130 320 135 62 28 52 81 79 79 3.3 9 32.6 92Romania 73 60 136 7 223 534 174 70 13 52 134 76 53 3.3 10.5 30.0 99

    CzechRepublic

    75 146 86 6 279 179 146 37 55 98 122 68 75 2.1 17 65.0 29

    Getting Electricity Resolving Insolvency

    Source: World Bank Doing Business 2013-2014 Report

  • World Economic Forum World Competitiveness Report – Ranking(out of 148 countries)

    Romania Bugaria Czech Rep Hungary Poland1.11 Efficiency of legal framework in challenging regs., 1-7 (best) 128 122 126 138 1111.10 Efficiency of legal framework in settling disputes, 1-7 (best) 128 125 115 113 1191.04 Public trust in politicians, 1-7 (best) 141 97 146 129 1001.07 Favoritism in decisions of government officials, 1-7 (best) 137 117 123 116 651.08 Wastefulness of government spending, 1-7 (best) 134 86 53 110 931.09 Burden of government regulation, 1-7 (best) 127 105 135 140 1332.02 Quality of roads, 1-7 (best) 145 112 81 73 1052.05 Quality of air transport infrastructure, 1-7 (best) 119 83 21 101 1036.09 Prevalence of trade barriers, 1-7 (best) 128 123 68 43 891.20 Protection of minority shareholders’ interests, 1-7 (best) 128 99 83 80 937.07 Reliance on professional management, 1-7 (best) 131 112 62 114 791.19 Efficacy of corporate boards, 1-7 (best) 126 127 88 120 957.01 Cooperation in labor-employer relations, 1-7 (best) 139 99 74 83 885.08 Extent of staff training, 1-7 (best) 134 127 68 108 751.17 Ethical behavior of firms, 1-7 (best) 139 110 109 92 592.04 Quality of port infrastructure, 1-7 (best) 123 85 61 84 977.05 Effect of taxation on incentives to work, 1-7 (best) 146 109 133 132 1056.04 Effect of taxation on incentives to invest, 1-7 (best) 136 103 132 135 1167.08 Country capacity to retain talent, 1-7 (best) 138 142 109 126 1197.09 Country capacity to attract talent, 1-7 (best) 132 144 87 115 1211.B. Private institutions, 1-7 (best) 127 94 93 89 602.A. Transport infrastructure, 1-7 (best) 122 97 49 71 92

    Romania Bugaria Czech Rep Hungary Poland1.11 Efficiency of legal framework in challenging regs., 1-7 (best) 128 122 126 138 1111.10 Efficiency of legal framework in settling disputes, 1-7 (best) 128 125 115 113 1191.04 Public trust in politicians, 1-7 (best) 141 97 146 129 1001.07 Favoritism in decisions of government officials, 1-7 (best) 137 117 123 116 651.08 Wastefulness of government spending, 1-7 (best) 134 86 53 110 931.09 Burden of government regulation, 1-7 (best) 127 105 135 140 1332.02 Quality of roads, 1-7 (best) 145 112 81 73 1052.05 Quality of air transport infrastructure, 1-7 (best) 119 83 21 101 1036.09 Prevalence of trade barriers, 1-7 (best) 128 123 68 43 891.20 Protection of minority shareholders’ interests, 1-7 (best) 128 99 83 80 937.07 Reliance on professional management, 1-7 (best) 131 112 62 114 791.19 Efficacy of corporate boards, 1-7 (best) 126 127 88 120 957.01 Cooperation in labor-employer relations, 1-7 (best) 139 99 74 83 885.08 Extent of staff training, 1-7 (best) 134 127 68 108 751.17 Ethical behavior of firms, 1-7 (best) 139 110 109 92 592.04 Quality of port infrastructure, 1-7 (best) 123 85 61 84 977.05 Effect of taxation on incentives to work, 1-7 (best) 146 109 133 132 1056.04 Effect of taxation on incentives to invest, 1-7 (best) 136 103 132 135 1167.08 Country capacity to retain talent, 1-7 (best) 138 142 109 126 1197.09 Country capacity to attract talent, 1-7 (best) 132 144 87 115 1211.B. Private institutions, 1-7 (best) 127 94 93 89 602.A. Transport infrastructure, 1-7 (best) 122 97 49 71 92

    Source: The Global Competitiveness report, World Economic Forum, 2013-2014

  • RankPayments

    (number peryear)

    Time (hoursper year)

    Profit tax(%)

    Labor tax andcontributions (%)

    Othertaxes (%)

    Total tax rate(% profit)

    Ireland 6 9 80 12.3 12.1 1.3 25.7Estonia 32 7 81 8.1 39.4 2 49.4Latvia 49 7 264 4.9 27.3 3.7 35.9Slovenia 54 11 260 12.9 18.2 1.4 32.5Lithuania 56 11 175 6 35.2 1.9 43.1United States 64 11 175 27.9 9.9 8.4 46.3Bulgaria 81 13 454 4.9 20.2 2.6 27.7Germany 89 9 218 23 21.8 4.6 49.4Slovak Republic 102 20 207 7 39.6 0.6 47.2Poland 113 18 286 14.1 26 1.5 41.6Czech Republic 122 8 413 7.7 38.4 2 48.1Hungary 124 12 277 11.6 34.6 3.5 49.7

    Kyrgyz Republic 127 51 210 6.2 19.5 7.7 33.4Sierra Leone 128 33 353 18.2 11.3 2.9 32.4Mozambique 129 37 230 30.9 4.5 2.1 37.5Yemen, Rep. 129 44 248 20.1 11.3 1.4 32.7Belarus 133 10 319 13.4 39 1.5 54Romania 134 39 200 10.3 31.5 1.1 42.9Europe & Central Asia .. 26 246 9 22.6 7 38.7OECD high income .. 12 175 16.1 23.1 2 41.3

    World Bank Doing Business Report – Paying taxes, ranking (out of189 countries)

    RankPayments

    (number peryear)

    Time (hoursper year)

    Profit tax(%)

    Labor tax andcontributions (%)

    Othertaxes (%)

    Total tax rate(% profit)

    Ireland 6 9 80 12.3 12.1 1.3 25.7Estonia 32 7 81 8.1 39.4 2 49.4Latvia 49 7 264 4.9 27.3 3.7 35.9Slovenia 54 11 260 12.9 18.2 1.4 32.5Lithuania 56 11 175 6 35.2 1.9 43.1United States 64 11 175 27.9 9.9 8.4 46.3Bulgaria 81 13 454 4.9 20.2 2.6 27.7Germany 89 9 218 23 21.8 4.6 49.4Slovak Republic 102 20 207 7 39.6 0.6 47.2Poland 113 18 286 14.1 26 1.5 41.6Czech Republic 122 8 413 7.7 38.4 2 48.1Hungary 124 12 277 11.6 34.6 3.5 49.7

    Kyrgyz Republic 127 51 210 6.2 19.5 7.7 33.4Sierra Leone 128 33 353 18.2 11.3 2.9 32.4Mozambique 129 37 230 30.9 4.5 2.1 37.5Yemen, Rep. 129 44 248 20.1 11.3 1.4 32.7Belarus 133 10 319 13.4 39 1.5 54Romania 134 39 200 10.3 31.5 1.1 42.9Europe & Central Asia .. 26 246 9 22.6 7 38.7OECD high income .. 12 175 16.1 23.1 2 41.3

    Source: World Bank Doing Business 2013-2014 Report

  • Tax or mandatorycontribution

    Payments(number)

    Notes onPayments

    Total taxrate (%profit)

    Tax or mandatorycontribution

    Payments(number)

    Notes onPayments

    Total taxrate (%profit)

    Tax or mandatorycontribution

    Payments(number)

    Notes onPayments

    Total taxrate (%profit)

    Social security contributions 1 online filing 20.2 Social security contributions 12 23.5 Social security contributions 1 online filing 24.3

    Corporate income tax 1 online filing 4.9 Corporate income tax 4 10.3 Health Insurance 1 online filing 10.2Fees for municipal services(garbage collection fee) - Sofia 4 0.9 Health insurance contributions 0 paid jointly 5.9 Corporate income tax 1 online filing 7.7

    Stamp duty on property transfer 1 0.9 Medical leave 0 paid jointly 1 Sickness insurance 0 paid jointly 2.6

    Vignette 1 0.4 Building tax 2 1 Property transfer tax 1 1.8Real estate tax on the land andbuilding 1 0.3 Unemployment contribution 0 paid jointly 0.6 Unemployment contribution 0 paid jointly 1.4

    Vehicle tax 1 0.1 Accident risk fund 0 paid jointly 0.4 Road tax 1 online filing 0.1

    Fuel tax 1 .. Guarantee fund 0 paid jointly 0.3 Real estate tax 1 0

    Value added tax (VAT) 1 online filing .. Vehicle tax 2 0.1 Value added tax (VAT) 1 online filing ..Final/one-off tax on certainexpenses 1 online filing .. Firm tax 2 0 Fuel tax 1 ..

    Totals: 13 27.7 Urbanism tax 1 0 Totals: 8 48.1

    Land tax 2 0

    Value added tax (VAT) 12 ..

    Environmental taxes 1 ..

    Fuel tax 1 ..

    Stamp duty on contracts 0 ..

    Totals: 39 42.9

    Tax or mandatorycontribution

    Payments(number)

    Notes onPayments

    Total taxrate (%profit)

    Tax or mandatorycontribution

    Payments(number)

    Notes onPayments

    Total taxrate (%profit)

    Tax or mandatorycontribution

    Payments(number)

    Notes onPayments

    Total taxrate (%profit)

    Social tax 1 online filing 30.5 Social security contributions 1 online filing 18.9 Social security contributions 1 online filing 39.6

    Local business tax 1 online filing 5.9 Corporate income tax 1 online filing 14.1 Corporate income tax 1 7

    Corporate income tax 1 online filing 5.8 National disabled fund 0 paid jointly 4.2 Tax on interest 0 0.5

    Rehabilitation contribution 1 online filing 2.4 Labor fund 0 paid jointly 2.8 Property tax 4 0.4

    Training contribution 0 paid jointly 1.7 Property tax 1 1.4 Motor vehicle tax 1 0.2

    Special tax 1 online filing 1.4 Guaranteed employees' fund 0 paid jointly 0.1 Fuel tax 1 ..

    Property tax 1 online filing 0.9 Transport tax 2 0.1 Value added tax (VAT) 12 ..

    R&D Tax 1 online filing 0.9 Fuel tax 1 .. Totals: 20 47.2

    Land tax 1 online filing 0.2 Value added tax (VAT) 12 ..

    Vehicle tax 1 online filing 0.2 Totals: 18 41.6

    Fuel tax 1 ..

    Value added tax (VAT) 1 online filing ..

    Environmental tax 1 ..

    Totals: 12 49.7

    Bulgaria Romania Czech Republic

    Hungary Poland Slovak Republic

    Tax or mandatorycontribution

    Payments(number)

    Notes onPayments

    Total taxrate (%profit)

    Tax or mandatorycontribution

    Payments(number)

    Notes onPayments

    Total taxrate (%profit)

    Tax or mandatorycontribution

    Payments(number)

    Notes onPayments

    Total taxrate (%profit)

    Social security contributions 1 online filing 20.2 Social security contributions 12 23.5 Social security contributions 1 online filing 24.3

    Corporate income tax 1 online filing 4.9 Corporate income tax 4 10.3 Health Insurance 1 online filing 10.2Fees for municipal services(garbage collection fee) - Sofia 4 0.9 Health insurance contributions 0 paid jointly 5.9 Corporate income tax 1 online filing 7.7

    Stamp duty on property transfer 1 0.9 Medical leave 0 paid jointly 1 Sickness insurance 0 paid jointly 2.6

    Vignette 1 0.4 Building tax 2 1 Property transfer tax 1 1.8Real estate tax on the land andbuilding 1 0.3 Unemployment contribution 0 paid jointly 0.6 Unemployment contribution 0 paid jointly 1.4

    Vehicle tax 1 0.1 Accident risk fund 0 paid jointly 0.4 Road tax 1 online filing 0.1

    Fuel tax 1 .. Guarantee fund 0 paid jointly 0.3 Real estate tax 1 0

    Value added tax (VAT) 1 online filing .. Vehicle tax 2 0.1 Value added tax (VAT) 1 online filing ..Final/one-off tax on certainexpenses 1 online filing .. Firm tax 2 0 Fuel tax 1 ..

    Totals: 13 27.7 Urbanism tax 1 0 Totals: 8 48.1

    Land tax 2 0

    Value added tax (VAT) 12 ..

    Environmental taxes 1 ..

    Fuel tax 1 ..

    Stamp duty on contracts 0 ..

    Totals: 39 42.9

    Tax or mandatorycontribution

    Payments(number)

    Notes onPayments

    Total taxrate (%profit)

    Tax or mandatorycontribution

    Payments(number)

    Notes onPayments

    Total taxrate (%profit)

    Tax or mandatorycontribution

    Payments(number)

    Notes onPayments

    Total taxrate (%profit)

    Social tax 1 online filing 30.5 Social security contributions 1 online filing 18.9 Social security contributions 1 online filing 39.6

    Local business tax 1 online filing 5.9 Corporate income tax 1 online filing 14.1 Corporate income tax 1 7

    Corporate income tax 1 online filing 5.8 National disabled fund 0 paid jointly 4.2 Tax on interest 0 0.5

    Rehabilitation contribution 1 online filing 2.4 Labor fund 0 paid jointly 2.8 Property tax 4 0.4

    Training contribution 0 paid jointly 1.7 Property tax 1 1.4 Motor vehicle tax 1 0.2

    Special tax 1 online filing 1.4 Guaranteed employees' fund 0 paid jointly 0.1 Fuel tax 1 ..

    Property tax 1 online filing 0.9 Transport tax 2 0.1 Value added tax (VAT) 12 ..

    R&D Tax 1 online filing 0.9 Fuel tax 1 .. Totals: 20 47.2

    Land tax 1 online filing 0.2 Value added tax (VAT) 12 ..

    Vehicle tax 1 online filing 0.2 Totals: 18 41.6

    Fuel tax 1 ..

    Value added tax (VAT) 1 online filing ..

    Environmental tax 1 ..

    Totals: 12 49.7

    Bulgaria Romania Czech Republic

    Hungary Poland Slovak Republic

  • VAT rate

    15

    18 18

    1919.6

    20 20 20 20 20 20

    21 21 21 21 21 21 21.322

    23 23 23 23

    24 24

    25 25

    27

    14

    16

    18

    20

    22

    24

    26

    28

    LU CY MT DE FR BG EE AT SI

    SK UK BE CZ ES LV LT NL

    EU-2

    7 IT IE EL PL PT FI

    RO DK SE

    HU

    15

    18 18

    1919.6

    20 20 20 20 20 20

    21 21 21 21 21 21 21.322

    23 23 23 23

    24 24

    25 25

    27

    14

    16

    18

    20

    22

    24

    26

    28

    LU CY MT DE FR BG EE AT SI

    SK UK BE CZ ES LV LT NL

    EU-2

    7 IT IE EL PL PT FI

    RO DK SE

    HU

    Source: European Commission

  • Top personal income tax rates

    10

    15 16 16

    21 2224 25

    32

    35

    38.5 38.941

    43.645 46

    47.3 47.550 50 50.2

    51.1 52 5253 53.7

    55.6 56.6

    9

    14

    19

    24

    29

    34

    39

    44

    49

    54

    59

    BG LT

    HU RO EE CZ LV SK PL MT CY

    EU-2

    7 IE LU UK EL IT DE AT SI

    FR FI ES NL PT BE DK SE

    10

    15 16 16

    21 2224 25

    32

    35

    38.5 38.941

    43.645 46

    47.3 47.550 50 50.2

    51.1 52 5253 53.7

    55.6 56.6

    9

    14

    19

    24

    29

    34

    39

    44

    49

    54

    59

    BG LT

    HU RO EE CZ LV SK PL MT CY

    EU-2

    7 IE LU UK EL IT DE AT SI

    FR FI ES NL PT BE DK SE

    Source: European Commission

  • Top statutory tax rate on corporate income

    10 10

    12.5

    15 1516

    17

    19 19

    20.6 2122

    23 23 23.224.5 25 25 25

    26

    29.2 29.830

    31.4 31.5

    3435

    36.1

    9

    14

    19

    24

    29

    34

    39

    BG CY IE LV LT RO SI

    CZ PL HU EE SE SK UK

    EU-2

    7 FI DK NL AT EL LU DE ES IT PT BE MT FR

    10 10

    12.5

    15 1516

    17

    19 19

    20.6 2122

    23 23 23.224.5 25 25 25

    26

    29.2 29.830

    31.4 31.5

    3435

    36.1

    9

    14

    19

    24

    29

    34

    39

    BG CY IE LV LT RO SI

    CZ PL HU EE SE SK UK

    EU-2

    7 FI DK NL AT EL LU DE ES IT PT BE MT FR

    Source: European Commission

  • Social security contributions

    0

    7.7910.5

    14.7517.21

    25.02 25.8

    30.333 33.2

    34.7535.0936.2536.46

    38.2 39.539.7

    42.19 43.244.9544.96 45 45.5

    48 49.05 49.4

    59

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    70

    DK FI

    CY IE SE LU UK BG EE

    EU-2

    7 PT LV ES IT SI

    AT DE PL LT RO EL CZ HU BE NL SK FR

    0

    7.7910.5

    14.7517.21

    25.02 25.8

    30.333 33.2

    34.7535.0936.2536.46

    38.2 39.539.7

    42.19 43.244.9544.96 45 45.5

    48 49.05 49.4

    59

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    70

    DK FI

    CY IE SE LU UK BG EE

    EU-2

    7 PT LV ES IT SI

    AT DE PL LT RO EL CZ HU BE NL SK FR

    Source: European Commission

  • What employers must spend to pay each net euro to an employee

    Sursa: Molinari Economic Institute, The Tax Burden of Typical Workers in the EU 27, 2013

  • TR

    B

    GRCLDJ

    IFCT

    IL

    OT

    MH

    GJ DBPH BR TLVL AG

    CSBZ

    BV GLVNTM SBCVHD

    AB

    AR BCVSMS HR

    NTCJ

    SJ BN ISBH

    SVMMSM

    BT

    PIB nominal per capita (2011, % din media nationala)

    150%

    Disparitati regionale foarte mari

    TR

    B

    GRCLDJ

    IFCT

    IL

    OT

    MH

    GJ DBPH BR TLVL AG

    CSBZ

    BV GLVNTM SBCVHD

    AB

    AR BCVSMS HR

    NTCJ

    SJ BN ISBH

    SVMMSM

    BT

    PIB nominal per capita (2011, % din media nationala)

    150%