Role of Integrated Environment Assessment

Models in Developing Nations

APEIS Capacity Building Workshop onIntegrated Environment Assessment in the Asia-Pacific Region

October 24-26, 2002, New Delhi

Prof. Dr. Tsuneyuki MoritaNational Institute for Environmental Studies

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International Scientific Activities

Framework of APEISWSSD

Propose Asia-Pacific model

ECO ASIA Ministerial Meeting

ECO ASIA Panel

Policy Guidance Scientific database and options

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and Other international projects

Create linkages and cooperative structures

International organizations (ADB, UNEP,

UNU)

APN

Joint project collaboration

Research on innovative and strategic policy options

Integrated Environmental

Monitoring

Integrated Environmental

Assessment

Sub-projects

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Management Framework

· Representatives of each sub-project and APN experts

· Representatives of each sub-project and APN experts

Research Coordination Committee (RCC) →Coordination between each sub-project→Development of a draft overall research plan

· Senior officials from Asia-Pacific countries· Members of RCC· Representatives from international

organizations

· Senior officials from Asia-Pacific countries· Members of RCC· Representatives from international

organizations

ECO ASIA Panel →Review, endorsement and coordination of the overall project →Forum for coordination between scientific activities and policy makers

· Environmental ministers and international organizations from the Asia-Pacific region

· Environmental ministers and international organizations from the Asia-Pacific region

ECO ASIA →Forum for policy discussionbased on outcomes of scientific activities and provider of policy guidance

IEMIEM IEAIEA RISPORISPO Sub-Projects

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Objectives of APEIS• To develop scientific knowledge-based tools and innovative

strategy options to promote informed decision-making• To promote regional cooperation and capacity building• To propose a model of a regional initiative to substantiate and

realize the Plan of Implementation for the WSSD

Three Sub-Projects• IEM: to develop an integrated environmental monitoring system • IEA: to provide integrated models of the environment and

economy, as well as a strategic database • RISPO: to propose innovative and strategic policy options and

policy inventories

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Integrated Environmental Assessments (IEA)

• A set of integrated assessment models as major tools of APEIS, including an environment-economy model, an ecosystem/health impact model, a water resource/agriculture model, a material/recycle-economy model and an energy technology model

• Strategic database as well as indicators for APEIS use • Systematic projections of environmental trends as well

as assessments of innovative options based on the above models and database

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Participating OrganizationsNIES (Japan); Kyoto University (Japan); Energy Research Institute (China); Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research(China); Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad (India); Asian Institute of Technology (Thailand); Korea Environment Institute (Korea); Sangmyung University (Korea); Universiti Putra Malaysia (Malaysia)

Calling for wider participation

Capacity Building Activities(1) Assessment models are transferred with detailed manuals (2) Experts are invited to NIES or participating organizations

to participate in the model development process (3) The 11stst Capacity Building Workshop on IEACapacity Building Workshop on IEA will be held in

October 2002 in DelhiOctober 2002 in Delhi, India.

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Why is Innovation Required for Why is Innovation Required for Environmental Policies?Environmental Policies?

Environmental protectionEnvironmental protection

Eco

nom

ic g

row

thE

cono

mic

gro

wth very strict very strict

tradeoffs tradeoffs in Asiain Asia

Introduction of innovations

8

0

5

10

1520

25

30

35

40

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995year

SO2

emis

sion

s [m

illio

n t]

Actual emissions

Predicted emissions without controlReduction by fuel switch

Reduction by Industrial Structure Change

Reduction by Flue-gas Desulfurization

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Actual Investments for Flue-Gas Desulfurizationand Model Calculation Results(1960-1990)

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990Year

Flue

-Gas

Des

ulfu

rizat

io In

vest

men

t Actual Values

Model Estimate Values

(Billons $U.S.)

Why the Japanese pollution control was integrated with Why the Japanese pollution control was integrated with economic development ?economic development ?

(1) Technological development was essential to reduce (1) Technological development was essential to reduce the costs of pollution abatement.the costs of pollution abatement.

(2) A Competitive market gave an environment which was (2) A Competitive market gave an environment which was crucial in giving companies the incentive to invest in crucial in giving companies the incentive to invest in technology development.technology development.

(3) Environmental investment created new businesses (3) Environmental investment created new businesses and industries in Japan, which increased Japanand industries in Japan, which increased Japan’’s GDP.s GDP.

(4) Such environmental investment improved not only the (4) Such environmental investment improved not only the quality of products, but also production processes and quality of products, but also production processes and recycling processes in factories, which in turn recycling processes in factories, which in turn encouraged Japanencouraged Japan’’s longs long--term development.term development.

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1885 1990

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0.12

0.14

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000Per Capita GDP [1990 US$]

Per

Cap

ita S

O2

[tS] Japan

12

0.00

0.02

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0 5000 25000Per Capita GDP [1990 US$]

Per

Cap

ita S

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tS]

18701990

10000 15000 20000

Japan

US

13

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0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

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0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000Per Capita GDP [1990 US$]

Per

Cap

ita S

O2

[tS] Japan

US

China

14

If China follows US and European experience, If China follows US and European experience, -- -- --

0.000

0.005

0.010

0.015

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0.030

0 10000 20000 30000 40000Per Capita GDP [US$]

Per C

apita

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2 [tS

]

Following US/Europe

US

Japan

China

China

Following Japan

Following but preceding Japan

If China follows Japanese experience, If China follows Japanese experience, and if China precede Japan and if China precede Japan -- -- --If China follows Japanese experience, If China follows Japanese experience, -- -- --

15AUS

JPNCHN

IDN

IND

KOR

PHLTHA

7.8 16

112

203

12

119

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Production of Environmental Industriesin the Asia-Pacific Major Countries (billion US$)

Estimated by AIM model

Year 2002

Year Year 20322032

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PolicymakingProcess

AIM(Asia)

IMAGE(Netherlands）

GCAM（USA）

MIT(USA）

Integrated Assessment

ecology

policy sciences

hydraulics

meteorology

geochemistrypaleo-

climatology

geophysics AtmosphericChemistry economics

pedology

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What is Integrated Assessment (IA) ?A framework for the "best available synthesis of current

scientific, technical, economic, and sociopolitical knowledge" (IPCC 1995).

Historybeginning 1970s

1st IA : Climatic Impacts Assessment Program (CIAP)late 1970s

Formal computer simulation models were introducedduring 1980s

IA trials in ozone layer, acid rain, and climate change issues 1990s

Rapid increase of interest in the IA and many progresses in computer simulation models as a core tool of IA.

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Integrated assessment and Capacity BuildingIntegrated assessment and Capacity Building

integrated assessmentintegrated assessment approaches have led to approaches have led to improvements in communicationimprovements in communication between between policypolicy--makers and scientistsmakers and scientiststhe development of the development of Integrated Assessment Integrated Assessment ModelModel has greatly has greatly improved the abilityimproved the ability of, and of, and incentivesincentives for, scientists and policy makers to for, scientists and policy makers to integrate their research and governanceintegrate their research and governanceactivitiesactivities

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the development of integrated assessment the development of integrated assessment approaches has approaches has created a competitive situationcreated a competitive situationamong science and policy fields, which among science and policy fields, which encourage new research and policymakingencourage new research and policymakingtherefore, therefore, longlong--term joint research programterm joint research program for for integrated assessment is one of integrated assessment is one of very effectivevery effectiveway to build way to build capacity for comprehensive capacity for comprehensive policymakingpolicymaking

Integrated assessment and Capacity BuildingIntegrated assessment and Capacity Building(cont.)(cont.)