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@P8_4ward #FeedThe9

Roger Cady

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…Changing the Context

The Evolution…

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POPULATION

ONE HEALTHProteinMissingIngredient

Protein, Paleo, Atkins Carbs, sugar

1st World Diet Changing

Realities: Increased Protein Demand

9.7 BILLIONby 2050

60% INCREASEin animal protein

3.6 BILLIONmiddle class

Reality #1: 60% protein increase

MIDDLE CLASS

Innovation Choice Access

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Projected Vs Actual Protein Demand

200

210

220

230

240

250

260

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

MM

T (

Milk

bas

ed

on

So

lids

Equ

ival

ent

)

Forecast Consumption (MMT) Realized Consumption (MMT)

Reality

Expected

Sources: FAO, 2012, World Agriculture Towards 2030/2050, Tables 3.4 & 3.5, pp. 74-75

Reality #1: 60% protein increase

Demand for bridge protein exceeding projections by about 7%.

}

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Comparative YOY Global Population and Land Based Animal Protein Production Growth Rates

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

YOY

Gro

wth

Rat

e

Population Aggregate Animal Protein Production Protein Growth Rate Trend

Sources: FAOSTAT, http://faostat3.fao.org/download/Q/QL/E, & U.S. Census Bureau International Database, http://www.census.gov/population/international/data/idb/informationGateway.phpboth accessed 13Oct15

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2013 Global Land Based Animal Protein Sources

Animal Protein Source

23%

22%

22%

15%

14%

3% 0% 1%

Pork

Poultry

Milk Solids

Eggs

Beef

Ovine

Wild Game

Other

5 Major Proteins

92%

100%

95%

88%

83%

88%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Chicken Eggs as % All Eggs

Pig as % of Pork

Cattle as % of Beef

Chicken as % of Poultry

Cattle Milk as % of All Milk

Combined as % of All Sources

Source: FAOSTAT, http://faostat3.fao.org/download/Q/QL/E, accessed 13Oct15

By 2050, we will need 43% more beef

28.7 million metric tonnes

31.6 million tons

66.7 million metric tonnes

73.5 million tons

95.2 million metric tonnes

104.9 million tons

(mill

ion

me

tric

to

nn

es o

f b

ee

f) 95.2

66.7

28.7

Knapp, J. Elanco Animal Health. 2014 Food Forward: Global Beef Story. Data on file.

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©2015, Elanco Animal Health, a division of Eli Lilly and Company

Today’s Landscape

Health and Nutrition

Challenges

1 in 3

Growing Population 20% Lost to Disease Environmental

Pressure

Get the wrong nutrition Overusing natural resources

1.6 planetsIncrease in demand

60% 20%Lost to disease

Idle AnimalsResources used to raise or maintain cattle

and water buffalo are affected by the

number of idle animals in the global herd.

Idle animals are cattle or water buffalo that

are not growing, not producing dairy, not

pregnant and not being used for draft work.

Farmers and ranchers may choose to

maintain idle cattle for reasons beyond

beef production, including breeding stock

potential, cultural beliefs or socio-economic

factors.

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Annual Environmental Consequence of Adding One More Milking Cow

• For survival nutrition (maintenance) of the cow, her heifer replacement and part of a bull required to breed her

• Does not include the nutritional requirements for the milk production; that is a constant regardless of number of cows

• Range due primarily to size of the cow• Summary

– Feed: +10 to 12.5 MT– Land: +2.1 to 2.2 acres– Water for animal consumption: +233,000 to 423,000 gal

• Equivalent to 0.40 to 0.75 U.S. Households

– Greenhouse gas emission (GHG): +8.7 to 12.8 MT• Equivalent to 1.8 to 2.7 automobiles

– Manure production: +12.2 to 20.4 MT• Equivalent to sewage from 75 to 110 people

Source: 2012, Capper, J.L. & R.A. Cady, J. Dairy Sci.

Cultural ConsiderationsIn India, many people regard cows as sacred animals and do not raise cattle for beef consumption.

Instead, some cattle may roam freely with minimal human intervention and could live for 10 years to 15 years.

In these regions, improving beef production may need to be more specific to water buffalo.

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Climate volatility is increasing

animal disease challenges

Global Animal Health is DynamicReality #3: Disease Challenges

3 in 4 cattle fight respiratory disease

1 in 4 dairy cows face mastitis

9 in 10 chickens exposed to coccidiosis

1 in 3 pig herds

experience ileitis

Constant Health Challenge Emerging Diseases New Threats

Caution: Prevention and Therapeutic Needs Critical. Don’t set dates to remove solutions

without alternatives.

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One HealthHealthy Animals, Healthy People, Healthy Planet

Less animals Less diseaseLess environmental

impact Less “noise”

Implications

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Meat Milk Energy Control

Incre

ase in E

nd o

f Term

Test

Score

s

The Importance of Meat, Milk and Eggs(Over 5 School Terms)

Neumann, C.G. et al. “Meat Supplementation Improves Growth, Cognitive, and Behavioral Outcomes in Kenyan Children.” Journal of Nutrition, 2007.

When diets are supplemented with meat or milk, learning and test scores improve.

Quality of nutrients versus just quantity of calories matter.

Why meat matters

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Considerations for Improving Beef ProductionFarming best practices and innovations can contribute to the improved efficiency of global beef production.

When discussing beef production, we must also consider a variety of factors that influence how farmers and ranchers assess the value of cattle and water buffalo, including idle animals, cultural differences, and social and economic considerations.

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We can freeze the footprint with innovation

Without ANY innovationWithout ANY innovation

1961 2010 2050 1961 2010 2050

Without ANY innovation

1961 2010 2050

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Global Average vs Best in ClassProtein production index globally

Pork: 40 more lbs in 70 less days

Chicken: 2.2 lbs. in half the time Eggs: 185/hen/yr vs. 270/hen/yr

Beef: 2 years vs 5 years to maturity

+ 2.2 lbs

Milk: 2 gallons vs 8 gallons

2 gallons8 gallons

2 years5 years

+40 lbs

+85 eggs

Knapp, J. and Cady, R. Elanco Animal Health. 2013 Food Forward Report. 2013.

We can feed significantly more people with less animals by increasing the global average.

Better

Housing

Nutritional

Advances

Contributing factors for continued improvement in cattle and

water buffalo health and growth

Genetic Selection

& Breeding Practices

Improved Animal

Health Practices

Meeting the Demand for Beef

How can innovation help beef production?

Improved, year-round nutrition combined with other farming best practices

can help cattle and water buffalo grow more efficiently.

Typical Global Steer GrowthMinimal Use of Farming Best Practices

5 years to reach maturity

260 kg(573 lb) of bone-in beef

26.2 kg (57.8 lb) of feed per kilogram of beef

Optimal Steer GrowthImproved Use of Farming Best Practices

2 years to reach maturity330 kg (727.5 lb) of bone-in beef

13.3 kg (29.3lb) of feed per kilogram of beef

2 Years5 Years

Knapp, J. Elanco Animal Health. 2014 Food Forward: Global Beef Story. Data on file.

1.7Billion

Cattle &

Water

Buffalo

2050Continued Innovation

How many cattle & water buffalo will

we need?

2.38Billion

Cattle &

Water

Buffalo

2050Frozen Innovation

To produce enough beef to meet demand in 2050, we can raise more

cattle and water buffalo, and use more resources.

Or we can improve how cattle and water buffalo are raised so that

they produce more beef more efficiently.

1.68Billion

Cattle &

Water

Buffalo

2010

Or will we use innovation to

improve efficiency? With continued innovation, we can produce 43% more beef with

fewer than 1.7 billion cattle and water buffalo. More importantly, we can

freeze the environmental footprint of beef production!

Grazed Forage: Water:

2010 2050Frozen Innovation

2050Continued Innovation

2010 2050Frozen Innovation

2050Continued Innovation

13.1Billion

Metric

Tonnes

18.7Billion

Metric Tonnes

5.76Trillion

Liters

8.23Trillion

Liters

5.76Trillion

Liters

Knapp, J. Elanco Animal Health. 2014 Food Forward: Global Beef Story. Data on file.

13.1Billion

Metric

Tonnes

14.4 billion tons 20.6 billion tons 14.4 billion tons 1.52 trillion gallons 2.16 trillion gallons 1.52 trillion gallons

>Grazed Forage Savings

5.6 billion metric tonnes saved

6.2 billion tons saved

More beef. Real resource savings. 43% more beef with less than 1.7 billion cattle and water buffalo in 2050*

Water Savings

2.48 trillion liters saved

655 billion gallons saved

=43% less forage

and grazing

land= 43% less water

*Savings are based on comparison of frozen innovation in 2050

versus continued improvements in the use of innovation in 2050 Knapp, J. Elanco Animal Health. 2014 Food Forward: Global Beef Story. Data on file.

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Balancing Innovation and Choice

We must deliver new innovation that customers embrace without jeopardizing the health of the animal.

Productivity is part of the solution. Not more animals

Global productivity is plateauing

We can’t remove asafe solution without an alternative

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28

8 Point Plan Recap

Act with responsibility globally.

Cease marketing of growth promotion

uses for shared-class antibiotics by the end

of 2016.

Help customers eliminate continuous

use of shared-class antibiotics for therapy

purposes by providing an alternative.

Eliminate over-the-counter sales of

shared-class antibiotics where oversight

exists.

Eliminate concurrent use of shared-class

antibiotics to treat the same disease.

Support veterinary oversight,

including helping build infrastructure

globally.

Develop new animal-only antibiotics.

Create alternatives. Invest in non-antibiotic

solutions where there are few, or no,

alternatives to shared-class antibiotics.

Social & Economic ConsiderationsIn some regions, socio-economic and political factors limit access to and trust in banking systems that are common in developed countries.

Families may purchase and maintain cattle and other livestock for many years as a way to save money instead of keeping cash.

Cattle or their calves may then be traded or sold as needed.

Improving beef production may be secondary to helping improve the socio-economic and political landscape.

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Population growth

exceeding expectations

Resource use

is accelerating

Threats to animal health

are increasing

The Solutions

Our New Realities

Implications

AnimalsDiseaseResourcesNoise

Less

Innovation Choice Access Nutrition

Mega Forces>Consumer Noise

Realities

Pathway to a Food Secure Future

Health Benefits of Beef." Beef Bytes #1. National Cattlemen's Beef Association. Accessed Oct. 16,, 2014

Beef is a good source of iron,

B12 and protein.

Cattle and water buffalo

consume grasses and plant

matter humans cannot

digest, and graze on land

that cannot be cultivated for

human foods.

Benefits of Beef

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