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robindcmatthews.com

3 October 2015Part 1

RANEPA

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NOTEIn this presentation and in the two following presentations Interdependence in globalisation part 2 and part 3 I am indebted to a number of sources:• Managing global finance as a system • Speech given by Andrew G Haldane, Chief Economist, Bank of England• At the Maxwell Fry Annual Global Finance Lecture, Birmingham University • 29 October 2014• Stuck: Speech given by • Andrew G Haldane, Chief Economist, Bank of England, Open University, Milton Keynes • 30 June 2015• Rethinking the financial network: Andrew G Haldane*• Executive Director, Financial Stability Bank of England Speech delivered at the Financial

Student Association, Amsterdam April 2009• Climate change: The world is warming, Heat map 14:31 by The Economist online Nov 29th

2010.• RGE Monitor; MonthlyChartbook: Pauline Argudin and the Roubini research team

September 2015• And various images taken from the internet.

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Evolution and change

distinction Typest

Random no pattern

Normal distribution Bell shaped or approximately so

Fat tailed distributions

change on all scales possible; Black Swans

Deterministic predictable iff imformation perfect

Chaotic Deterministic but CDIC

Catastrophic Singularity and great extinctions

Self ordered criticality

Attraction to tipping points; major (phase) transitions.

change

Evolution

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