Road to Copenhagen

Michael Hitchens, Chief Executive Officer, 25 November 2009

A Post-Kyoto Agreement

Dump the ‘developed’/‘developing’ country paradigm• ‘advanced’/‘least-developed’ solution• ‘advanced’ = Annex I plus some high/middle income

developing countries Kyoto architecture flawed

• USA, China and others cannot commit• Canada, Spain, Japan, Italy, Ireland cannot meet their

‘targets’ The concept of ‘comparable effort’

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Kyoto Protocol Performance Kyoto Protocol

Assigned Amount (% of 1990) Estimate 2010 (%)

Kyoto Protocol Assigned Amount

(% of 1990) Estimate 2010 (%)

Australia 8 7 Latvia -8 -48.6

Austria -13 -1.2 Liechtenstein -8 4

Belgium -7.5 1.9 Lithuania -8 -30.4

Bulgaria -8 -40.4 Netherlands -6 -2.2

Canada -6 38.2 New Zealand 0 15

Croatia -5 -11.8 Norway 1 23.3

Czech Republic -8 -26.7 Poland -6 -26.1

Denmark -8 -2.2 Portugal 27 42.7

Estonia -8 -56 Romania -8 -30.8

EU -8 -6.8 Russia 0 -21.3

Finland 0 -2.5 Slovakia -8 -24.7

France 0 0.2 Slovenia -8 -1.4

Germany -21 -22.5 Spain 15 27

Greece 25 27.5 Sweden 4 0.5

Hungary -6 -28.7 Switzerland -8 -3.2

Iceland 10 37.7 Turkey 98

Ireland 13 22.8 Ukraine 0 -47.9

Italy -6.5 3.7 United Kingdom -12.5 -19.4

Japan -6 3.6 United States -7 26.4

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Who Needs To Contribute?

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Who Can Afford to Contribute?

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Government’s Negotiating Position

“… reduce Australia’s emissions by 25 per cent on 2000 levels by 2020 if the world agrees to an ambitious global deal capable of stabilising levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere at 450 ppm CO2-e or lower…and… to unconditionally reduce Australia’s emissions by 5 per cent on 2000 levels by 2020, and to reduce emissions by up to 15 per cent by 2020 if there is a global agreement which falls short of securing atmospheric stabilisation at 450 ppm CO2-e, and under which major developing economies commit to substantially restrain emissions and advanced economies take on commitments comparable to Australia’s.”

Joint submission to the UNFCCC by Australia, Belarus, Canada, and the European Community, May 2009

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“Reduce Australia’s Emissions”

It is not an emissions ‘target’ It is a share, or national allocation, of

international emission rights

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Australia’s Emissions -5% By 2020

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Comparable Effort

“Mitigation will be best enhanced by countries making a comparable effort to others at a similar stage of development, taking into account differing national circumstances. Comparable effort would be represented by the entire portfolio of a country’s effort, including but not limited to economy wide emission reduction targets for advanced economies.”

Australia’s Low Pollution Future: Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme, Dec. 2008

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Indicators of Comparable Effort

Access Economics report Reference to base year Per capita Business as usual Economic or welfare impact – GNP

Australia, USA, EU, Canada

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Country Commitments

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Baseline Year: Indicator 1

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Per Capita Indicator 2: -20% Production Based

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Production versus Consumption

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UK Emissions

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BAU Indicator 3: -20% Reduction

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Why is EU’s -20% So Little?Kyoto Protocol

Assigned Amount (% of 1990) Estimate 2010 (%)

Kyoto Protocol Assigned Amount

(% of 1990) Estimate 2010 (%)

Australia 8 7 Latvia -8 -48.6

Austria -13 -1.2 Liechtenstein -8 4

Belgium -7.5 1.9 Lithuania -8 -30.4

Bulgaria -8 -40.4 Netherlands -6 -2.2

Canada -6 38.2 New Zealand 0 15

Croatia -5 -11.8 Norway 1 23.3

Czech Republic -8 -26.7 Poland -6 -26.1

Denmark -8 -2.2 Portugal 27 42.7

Estonia -8 -56 Romania -8 -30.8

EU -8 -6.8 Russia 0 -21.3

Finland 0 -2.5 Slovakia -8 -24.7

France 0 0.2 Slovenia -8 -1.4

Germany -21 -22.5 Spain 15 27

Greece 25 27.5 Sweden 4 0.5

Hungary -6 -28.7 Switzerland -8 -3.2

Iceland 10 37.7 Turkey 98

Ireland 13 22.8 Ukraine 0 -47.9

Italy -6.5 3.7 United Kingdom -12.5 -19.4

Japan -6 3.6 United States -7 26.4

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GNP Indicator 4: Allocation Budgets

The year 2020 allocation is interesting

but

The real test of ‘comparable effort’ is the allocation budget from 2013 to 2020 (or 2017)

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Country BAU Emissions

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Government’s Illustrative Allocation

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Comparative GNP Impact

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Comparative Employment Impact

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Alternative Allocation Budget For Australia

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Graduated v Straight-line GNP

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Comparative GNP Effects - 2015

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Comparative Employment Effects 2015

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References

AIGN http://www.aign.net.au/ Department of Climate Change

http://www.climatechange.gov.au/international/index.html

http://randd.defra.gov.uk/Document.aspx?Document=EV02033_7331_FRP.pdf

UNFCCC http://unfccc.int/ghg_data/items/3800.php

World Resources Institute www.wri.org

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