FLOOD RUNOFF ANALYSIS AND WATER AVAILABILITY FOR INTEGRATED RIVER BASIN MANAGEMENT PLANNING IN PANJ-E-AMU

Ritsumeikan University Graduate School of Science and Engineering Advanced Architectural, Environmental and Civil EngineeringMaster Thesis Defense

Panj-e-Amu Basin in the Upper Panj area (Panj River)

Presenter: Fayezurahman Azizi ID : 6141130021-7

Academic advisor: Prof.Satofuka Yoshifumi

Civil Engineering DepartmentWatershed Design Laboratory

Date: 2015.08.05

Thesis StructureChapter 1.

Introduction

Chapter 2.Literature Review

Chapter 3.Study area and

Dataset

Chapter 4.Approach and Methodology

Chapter 5.Flood Runoff Analysis

Chapter 6. Hydrological Analysis for Water Availability

Chapter 7.Conclusions and

Recommendation

Introduction

overview

Afghanistan is divided to five major basin

Over 80% percent of the population relies directly on the natural resources of the River basins.

Provides the Upstream water of four major river basin that flow into neighboring countries

The restructuring of river basins was started in 2011

The IWRM concept in the river basins is to promote a decentralization of water resource management and water planning into river basin-level and sub-basin level management.

Problems and issues Lack of Water Resources planning throughout the River Basin Environmental degradation Extreme flood disaster and erosion problems The lack of historical data Demand for water needs has dramatically increased

Darqad

Darqad

Sheberghan BalkhSamangan

Kunduz

Takhar

The most Vulnerable cities along Amu River

Taloqan River

Kokcha River

Kunduz River

Darqad Dashti-Qala

KaldarHairatan

A O

E D

Dashti-Qala

Objectives

• Calculating rainfall-runoff for flood runoff analysis and estimate flood probability

• Compare the correlation of GSMAP-NRT estimated rainfall and river discharge data by IFAS with ground based data.

• Calculating the annual average rainfall loss , effective rainfall and water loss • Estimate the supply ability of the basin to its future water demands

• Assess the direct runoff coefficient of river regime flow , water availability and basin characteristics

The purpose of this study is how to analyze flood runoff and evaluate water availability based on the hydrological process using the IFAS and WEAP models , to utilize its result as a step for integrated river basin management planning and dams’ feasibility.

The specific objectives are:

Study Area

This Basin accounts for about 57% percent of the annual water discharge of the country Estimated irrigation area total is about 424,000 ha

Dataset and characteristics of The Panj-e-Amu River Basin

Location of the StationsThe 32 Hydrological stations data are still available

The annual average precipitation is about 400 mm (2009-2013)

annual average temperature is about 13.6 C (2009-2012)

Max (43.2C◦) Lower Kunduz basin Min (-32.7C◦) Upper Panj basin

The terrain (DEM) of the Basin ranges from 200 m to 7470 m

Two Irrigation and hydropower dam

Bare Rock with loamy very fine sand is covered the most part of the basin while Silt Loam is the second and Rock with Loamy Very Fine Sand is the third

New Stations at the same location of old H.STNew Hydrological Stations

Existing Dam

Approach and Methodology

For the Watershed Design sustainability, development of integrated management planning aspects, must be considered.Be able to analyze and control flood disaster to reduce the economic damagesBe able to allocate water balance of the basin for prospective planning Be able to assess the river basin characteristics and ability

The Following Approaches and methodology used in this study

• Hydrological Data• Meteorological Data• Geological Data

𝑥𝑇=𝑥+𝐾 𝜎𝑛− 1

IFASGumbel extreme-value distribution

Data collection /Handling

WEAP Model Water Evaluation and planning

Flood Runoff analysisFlood Frequency analysis/Return periods, Probability exceedance

Hydrological Process /water Availability, Rainfall

losses

Water Allocation

River basin Management

planning

Future Water Demands

Supply

Integrated Flood Analysis System

IFAS Processing Structure

IFAS is an Integrated Flood Analysis System, calculates river discharge based on GIS data .

Entire World Rainfall Data are Available

IFAS goal is oriented to the developing countries which is lack of hydro meteorological data .

Flow of surface

Display of results

Runoff analysis

Modeling

Rainfall Data

IFAS Processing structure

o PWRI-Distributed Model Ver2.0

Tables & Graphs

o satellite- based rainfall data -GSMAP-NRT(JAXA)

o Building channel network, o Importing Target Elevation and Land Use (GLCC-USGS)o Global Map (ISCGM) spatial resolution 30 sec

Kokcha

o Ground-based rainfall data (WRD-Stations)

o Estimation and Modifies Water Tanks Parameter

Processing Structure WEAP is an unique approach for conducting integrated water resources planning assessments Calculates water demand, supply, runoff, reservoir and power production under different

hydrologic and policy scenarios Evaluates a full range of water development and management options

WEAP Processing

Schematic data of the basin

Create Area (Kokcha Sub- Basin)

Insert GIS Layer

Create Account years (2015-2030) for calculation

Draw River Line

Inter Monthly Average Flow

Demand Priority (Faizabad City , Agriculture)

Connect Demand With Supply

Connect return flow link

Make and Compared Scenarios

Change Irrigation Rate Change Growth rate Pop (2.4,3, 5%) scenarios

References scenario (2015-2030)

Reservoirs and Power Production calculations

Modeling Runoff-River Power Plant

Hydropower Computation

Kokcha (Modeling Reservoirs )

Results of Calculations SchematicsTables Charts

Run the WEAP for calculation

Start

Results and Discussions - Flood Runoff Analysis by IFASSummary of Flood Limits (M3/Sec) For The Panj-e-Amu River Basin, April,2012

Based on GSMAP-NRT Rainfall(mm) data Base on Hourly Ground Rainfall(mm) Measurement DischargeNo Station River Low- Flood Medium-Flood High-flood Low- Flood Medium-Flood High-flood Low- Discharge Medium-Discharge High-Discharge

1 Khojaghar Kokcha 419.08 569.35 599.42 451 682.13 1101.19 102.00 137.5 190.002 Faizabad Kokcha 193.58 287.37 389.82 245.51 421.49 666.13 127 148.2 169.003 Keshem Keshem 47.59 67.19 70.20 57.74 81.82 126.96 6 7.5 9.004 Teshkan Teshkan 15.81 24.19 25.58 18.28 30.23 48.96 8.8 8.9 9.15 Anjuman munjan 7.26 9.59 10.00 8.15 12.8 22.82 1.12 1.2 1.32

6 Jurm Jurm 2.18 2.57 2.65 1.86 3.42 5.29 23.6 30.9 33.4

7 Baharak Shuhada 6.40 8.89 9.30 19 32.38 47.59 9 10.0 118 Shashpul Shashpul 4.34 6.03 6.35 21.69 32 55.83 24.8 27.1 30.1

The IFAS by using the data of Satellite GSMAP-NRT rainfall calculated the peak discharge of magnitude 599.42 m3/sec on 2012/04/15 at 24 hours.

While the IFAS by using the data of ground rainfall calculated the peak discharge of magnitude 1101 m3/sec on 2012/04/29 at 24 hours.Location of Hydrological Stations are used for calculation/IFAS

Khojaghar

Kokcha

Results and Discussions - Flood Runoff Analysis 4

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Flood Runoff_ Comparison at Khojaghar Hydrological Station

Gsmap NRT-Rainfall

Ground-Rainfall

GSMAP-NRT Rainfall-Discharge

Ground Hourly Rainfall-Discharge

Dai

ly D

isch

arge

[m3/

s]

Rai

nfal

l [m

m/d

ay]

Peak Discharge = 1106.9 m3/sDirect Runoff Coeficient = 0.36

The IFAS showed high river course discharge with GSMAP-NRT rainfall than measured data in most cases

The base flow and peak discharge calculated based on Ground rainfall (Hourly and Daily) are shown the highest in each and every case

The discharge calculated by the Satellite GSMAP_NRT rainfall is well agreement with the measured discharge in some places

The tendency and total amount values of rainfall based GSMAP-NRT are smaller ,but in case heavy rainfall event over 14-25 mm/h, the tendency and amount of some points are near to each other’s

The correlation of satellite-based rainfall and ground-based rainfall is almost ,50%

Results (Cont) - Gumbel extreme-value distribution method

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

Estimated Flood Hydrograph at Khojaghar Hydrological station

Series1 50002000 1000500 300200 10080 5040 3025 2010 52 1.51.01

Days

Dis

char

ge (m

3/se

c)

1 10 100 10000

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Annual Observed FloodGumbel Distribution

Return Period (years)

Floo

d D

ischa

rge(

m3/

s)

Pul-e-Chugha Hydrological Station

First graph Shows the probability of flood frequency period based on 1965-1979 years data

The Probable floods Hydrograph is prepared by using a recorded flood Peak for the interval of 1.01 ,5000 years.

The calculation result shows for the 100 year a 4369 m3/Sec maximum probable flood

The May 22, 1969 flood, which was observed 1550 m3/Sec, as a maximum flood during the period of 1964-2013,

Result (Cont) - Future water Demands and Resources

This Graph shows the estimated of the water supply for the future demands with a high population growth rate scenario in Faizabad City, which is increase the Shortages of water for the Irrigations land.

Faizabad city

Proposed Dam “Shurabak”

Proposed Dam “Qala-i-Mamay”

Result (Cont) - Rainfall Loss with Effective Rainfall Rate & direct runoff coefficient analysis

Summary Results

Drainage Area (Sq.km)

Discharge (Mm3)

Precipitation(mm)

Rainfall loss (mm)

Water losses(Mm3)

Effective Rainfall(mm)

Totall 33434.16 10325.19 4897.24 33892.47 14.25Average 1238.30 382.41 181.38 1255.28 0.53

percentage (%) 49.66 67.83 32.17 50.3496800

503.

136

473

300.

237

401

12.8

313

257

467

379

466

144

30

294

202

268

28

165

54

An average of about 32% rainfall losses are showing in this Basin

An average of approximately 50 % water loss

showing an annual average of around 0.53 mm effective rainfall and a total of about 14.25 mm

No. YearFlood

Duration[days]

Basin Rainfall

(mm)

Peak Discharge[

m3/sec]

Base Flow[m3/s

ec]

Direct Runoff [mm]

Runoff Coefficient

1 2009 5/21/2009 7/20/2009 60 25.25 900 261 34.29 1.36

2 2010 5/31/2010 7/24/2010 54 11.01 642 231 58.28 5.29

3 2011 6/7/2011 7/25/2011 48 3 600 291 26.78 8.93

4 2012 6/13/2012 8/8/2012 56 4.89 648 299 43.24 1.26

5 2013 5/18/2013 6/30/2013 43 9.58 564 165 38.15 0.62

Average 52 10.7 670.8 249.4 40.1 3.49

Max. 60 25.3 900 299 58.3 8.93

Min. 43 3 564 165 26.8 0.62

Peak Discharge (Flood Duration)

shows a large different direct runoff coefficient because of very rare rainfall on peak discharge timing in the dry season

Result (Cont) - Mean Annual Runoff & River Flow Regime analysis of Panj-e-Amu River Basin

010002000

30004000500060007000

Mean Annual Runoff Of Panj-e-Amu River Basin (2005-2013)

Hydrological Stations

Mea

n A

nnua

l Run

off (M

m3)

The mean annual runoff capacity is estimated 40 BCM (Billion Cubic Meter) per year

AWARD World Bank New data/WRD

30

35

40

45

50

Panj-e-Amu River Basin -Total Annual Runoff

Tota

l Ann

ual R

unoff

(BCM

)

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec0%

500%

1000%

1500%

2000%

2500% River Flow Regime - Hydrograph

Faizabad Khojaghar

Months/2012

Pard

e-Co

effici

ent (

%)

Spring

summer

FallWinter

The spring/summer high water flow ‐contributes around 79% of the total annual flow discharged into the Basin.

The Khojaghar data presented 77%while Faizabad covered about 82%

Conclusion• The Integrated Flood Analysis System model (IFAS) result was not

satisfactory with measured and observed data in Panj-e-Amu Basin.

• The input data of Ground Surface-Based rainfall could improve the flood runoff inflow of the IFAS simulation.

• Flood peaks in the Panj-e-Amu River Basin is more influenced by snow melting while the air temperature is increasing during the summer in the mountainous area.

• The Water balance method is more suitable in the estimation of Rainfall losses.

• Panj-e-Amu River Basin has great ability for prospective and comprehensive planning.

Recommendations • More accurate adequate validation data of the basin and

extension of Hydro meteorological networks in upstream are required for the Future sustainability and Planning.

• For a comprehensive and sustainable watershed design in the future of Panj-e-Amu, the key association elements, including geological data, real demography ,people life style, a more accurate assessment of land cover, land use , soil type , geo-morphology development is required.

• Its important to modify parameters of IFAS to be appropriate with the particular river basin.

Thanks For Your Attention

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