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8/7/2019 Risk Management Session 2 Summer I 2010
1/27
1
Risk ManagementRisk Management
Delaware State University Delaware State University
Session 2
8/7/2019 Risk Management Session 2 Summer I 2010
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Risk ManagementRisk Management
QuantitativeRisk Analysis
QualitativeRisk Analysis
11.611.611.511.5
RiskIdentification
RiskManagement
Planning
Project RiskManagement
11.0
11.311.311.211.211.111.1 11.411.4
RiskResponsePlanning
RiskMonitoring& Control
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Risk ManagementRisk Management
Definition: The processes concernedDefinition: The processes concernedwith conducting risk managementwith conducting risk management
planning, identification, analysis, responsesplanning, identification, analysis, responsesand control on a project.and control on a project.Increasing the probability and consequences of Increasing the probability and consequences of
positive eventspositive eventsDecreasing the probability and consequences of Decreasing the probability and consequences of adverse events to project objectives.adverse events to project objectives.
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8/7/2019 Risk Management Session 2 Summer I 2010
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Risk ManagementRisk Management
O bjectivesO bjectivesYou will be able to initiate perform Risk You will be able to initiate perform Risk Management P lanning as described in para 11.1Management P lanning as described in para 11.1P MBOK P MBOK You will be able to perform Risk Identification asYou will be able to perform Risk Identification asdescribed in para 11.2 P MBOK described in para 11.2 P MBOK
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Risk ManagementRisk Management
I dont know what I dont know
I know what I dont know
I know what I know
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Risk ManagementRisk Management
Risk IdentificationRisk IdentificationThe DefinitionThe Definition
Determining which risks might affect theDetermining which risks might affect theproject, and documenting theirproject, and documenting theircharacteristics.characteristics.
8/7/2019 Risk Management Session 2 Summer I 2010
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8/7/2019 Risk Management Session 2 Summer I 2010
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8/7/2019 Risk Management Session 2 Summer I 2010
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Risk ManagementRisk Management
O utputsO utputsRisk RegisterRisk Register
List of Identified RisksList of Identified RisksP otential ReponsesP otential Reponses
8/7/2019 Risk Management Session 2 Summer I 2010
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Risk ManagementRisk Management
Wh at are t h e projectsWh at are t h e projectsobjectives?objectives?
Project Charter Project Charter Wh at is t h e completeWh at is t h e completedefinition of t h edefinition of t h eproject?project?Project Scope Statement Project Scope Statement H ow will t h e project beH ow will t h e project beexecuted, monitoredexecuted, monitoredand controlled?and controlled?Project Management Plan Project Management Plan
Risk Identification: What do I need to know?Risk Identification: What do I need to know?
Wh at are t h e pre-definedapproac h es to Risk Management?O rganizational Process Assets O rganizational Process Assets
Wh at are t h e attitudes
toward Risk and Risk Tolerance?E nvironmental and O rganizational E nvironmental and O rganizational Factors Factors
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Risk ManagementRisk Management
Tec h nical Risk Tec h nical Risk Quality Quality P erformanceP erformanceTechnical failureTechnical failureP oor assumptionsP oor assumptions
P roject ManagementP roject Management
Risk Risk ScheduleScheduleCostCostIncomplete planning Incomplete planning
Lack of DisciplineLack of Discipline
Types of P roject Risks and O pportunities
O rganizational Risk
Lack of P rioritization
Inadequate funding, time,resources
Resource Conflict
E xternal Risk
Shifting regulatory requirements
Labor issuesP olitical issues
Acts of God
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Risk ManagementRisk Management
Review documentsReview documentsGather informationGather informationUse checklistsUse checklistsAnalyze assumptionsAnalyze assumptions
Influence AnalysisInfluence AnalysisDiagram process impacts on one anotherDiagram process impacts on one another
Risk Identification: what do I do?
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Risk ManagementRisk Management
Information Gathering TechniquesInformation Gathering TechniquesBrainstorming Brainstorming DelphiDelphiInterviewing Interviewing Root Cause IdentificationRoot Cause IdentificationSW O T analysisSW O T analysis
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Risk ManagementRisk Management
Influence Analysis
Keep SatisfiedKeep Satisfied Manage CloselyManage Closely
MonitorMonitor
(Minimum E ffort)(Minimum E ffort) Keep InformedKeep Informed
P
O
W
E
R
LO W
HIGH
INTERESTLO W HIGH
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Risk ManagementRisk Management
Problem
Material
Cause
Effect
Risk
Identification11.2
Personnel Method
Is h ikawa (Fis h bone) Diagram
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Risk ManagementRisk Management
P rocess Flow C h art
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Risk ManagementRisk Management
Risk Breakdown Structure (RBS)
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Risk ManagementRisk Management
WBSWBSRBSRBS
Cost estimatesCost estimatesDuration estimatesDuration estimatesStaffing P lanStaffing P lanP rocurement Management P lanP rocurement Management P lan
Risk Identification: Consider
Dont ForgetSpecifications
P erformance CriteriaCustomer expectations.Customer major wantsMajor project disciplines and interfaces
Assumptions
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Risk ManagementRisk Management
Risk RegisterRisk RegisterList of identified risksList of identified risksSymptoms or warning signsSymptoms or warning signsList of potential responsesList of potential responses
Root causes of risk Root causes of risk Updated risk categoriesUpdated risk categories
P roject Management P lan (Update)P roject Management P lan (Update)
Risk Identification: H ow does it fit into t h e process?
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Risk ManagementRisk Management
QuantitativeRisk Analysis
QualitativeRisk Analysis
11.611.611.511.5
RiskIdentification
RiskManagement
Planning
Project RiskManagement
11.0
11.311.311.211.211.111.1 11.411.4Risk
ResponsePlanning
RiskMonitoring& Control
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Risk ManagementRisk Management
Q ualitative Risk AnalysisQ ualitative Risk AnalysisP rioritizing risks for subsequent further analysis or actionP rioritizing risks for subsequent further analysis or action
by assessing and combining their probability andby assessing and combining their probability andimpacts.impacts.
P rioritizes risksP rioritizes risksDetermines the importance of addressing specific risksDetermines the importance of addressing specific risksGuides risk responsesGuides risk responsesRapid and CostRapid and Cost--effectiveeffective
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Risk ManagementRisk Management
H ow will risk be managedH ow will risk be managed
for t h e overall P roject?for t h e overall P roject?Project Management Plan Project Management Plan (particularly the Risk Management (particularly the Risk Management Plan and the Risk Register)Plan and the Risk Register)H
ow h
as Risk beenH
ow h
as Risk beenmanaged before and w h atmanaged before and w h ath ave we learned?h ave we learned?O rganizational Process Assets O rganizational Process Assets
Q ualitative Risk AnalysisQ ualitative Risk Analysis - - ConsiderConsider
Wh at is t h e project progress
th roug h out t h e life cycle?W ork Performance Information W ork Performance Information Wh at type of project is
th is?
Project Scope Statement Project Scope Statement Wh at information do we
h ave on Identified Risks?Risk Register Risk Register
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Risk ManagementRisk Management
Evaluate risk probability & impactEvaluate risk probability & impact
Use a risk probability & impact matrixUse a risk probability & impact matrixAssess data precisionAssess data precisionCategorize RisksCategorize Risks
RBSRBSWBSWBSAssess Risk Urgency Assess Risk Urgency
Wh at are t h e steps?
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Risk ManagementRisk Management
Rating Risk Impact
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Risk ManagementRisk ManagementP robabilityP robability- -Impact MatrixImpact Matrix
P robabilityP robability Risk Score = P x IRisk Score = P x I
0.90.9 0.050.05 0.090.09 0.180.18 0.360.36 0.720.720.70.7 0.040.04 0.070.07 0.140.14 0.280.28 0.560.56
0.50.5 0.030.03 0.050.05 0.100.10 0.200.20 0.240.24
0.30.3 0.020.02 0.030.03 0.060.06 0.120.12 0.240.240.10.1 0.010.01 0.010.01 0.020.02 0.040.04 0.080.08
0.050.05 0.100.10 0.200.20 0.400.40 0.800.80
Impact on an objectiveImpact on an objective
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Risk ManagementRisk Management
Update the Risk RegisterUpdate the Risk RegisterRelative rating or priority list of project risksRelative rating or priority list of project risksRisks grouped by categoriesRisks grouped by categoriesList of risks requiring response in the near termList of risks requiring response in the near termList of risks for additional analysis and responseList of risks for additional analysis and responseWatch lists of low priority risksWatch lists of low priority risksTrends in qualitative risk analysis resultsTrends in qualitative risk analysis results
Q ualitative Risk Analysis - O utput