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Risk Management at
NASA and
Its Applicability to the
Oil & Gas Industry
OPERATIONAL EXCELLENCE
IN OIL AND GAS
November 7, 2017
David Kaplan
NASA/Johnson Space Center
https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20170010135 2018-05-14T20:21:30+00:00Z
1. Why is NASA’s experience relevant to offshore oil
and gas?
2. What is Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA)?
3. What is the relationship between NASA and
BSEE Headquarters?
4. What is NASA presently doing with Anadarko
Petroleum Corporation and with Shell
International Exploration and Production?
International Space Station
Speakers Bureau 4
International Space Station
Speakers Bureau 5
International Space Station
International Space Station
Complex Operations Dependent on Human Involvement
Repair and Maintenance Operations in a Hostile Environment
Ongoing Resupply Operations
ISS Mission Control Center
Isolated and Not Easily Accessible
1. Why is NASA’s experience relevant to offshore oil
and gas?
2. What is Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA)?
3. What is the relationship between NASA and
BSEE Headquarters?
4. What is NASA presently doing with Anadarko
Petroleum Corporation and with Shell
International Exploration and Production?
QUALITATIVE risk assessment is commonly based on experience or expertise and results in categorical estimates of risk.
QUANTITATIVE risk assessment leverages empirical data to determine and assign numerical values to risk.
Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA)
Qualitative versus Quantitative Risk Assessment
First, Define the “End States” of the PRA Analysis
Major Steps to Perform a PRA
Notional Master Logic Diagram for a Well Kick While Drilling
Example Event Tree for Response to an
Unexpected Overpressure Zone While Drilling
Notional Example of End State Probabilities with Uncertainty
Lowest Probability Highest Probability
Notional Initiating Event Ranking Leading to a Well Kick
Data in this figure does not represent any particular facility. Rankings may be
different for slightly different designs or operational procedures/practices.
1. Why is NASA’s experience relevant to offshore oil
and gas?
2. What is Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA)?
3. What is the relationship between NASA and
BSEE Headquarters?
4. What is NASA presently doing with Anadarko
Petroleum Corporation and with Shell
International Exploration and Production?
Mission Statement: The Bureau of Safety and
Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) works to
promote safety, protect the environment, and
conserve resources offshore through vigorous
regulatory oversight and enforcement.
U.S. Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement
NASA – BSEE Interagency Agreement
March 17, 2016
5 Year Agreement
NASA’s probabilistic
risk assessment
technique
U.S. Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement
PRA Procedures Guide for Offshore Applications (DRAFT)https://www.bsee.gov/what-we-do/offshore-regulatory-programs/risk-
assessment-analysis/probabilistic-risk-assessment-analysis
Deep water Drilling PRA Subsea Production
Hardware PRA
PRA Data Needs
NASA Tasks for 2017
1. Why is NASA’s experience relevant to offshore oil
and gas?
2. What is Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA)?
3. What is the relationship between NASA and
BSEE Headquarters?
4. What is NASA presently doing with Anadarko
Petroleum Corporation and with Shell
International Exploration and Production?
Generic BOP Modeled
Riser Adapter
Flex Joint
Upper Annular
Riser Connector
Mandrel
Lower Annular
Shear Rams
Casing Shear Rams
Upper Pipe Rams
Middle Pipe Rams
Lower Pipe Rams
Test Rams
Wellhead Connector
WellheadPresented with the permission of
Generic 20,000 psi Blowout Preventer (BOP) Model
End State:
Loss of Containment
Initiating Events:
• Well Kick Occurs
• Loss of Position
27
“Well Kick” Initiating Event:
Human Error Dominates over Failure of Equipment
“Loss Of Position” Initiating Event:
Failure of Blind Shear Ram and Shuttle Valves were
Important Contributors
Data used in this study are generic in nature. The current
model results are viewed as preliminary at this time.
Key Insights from Generic Blowout Preventer (BOP) Model
Presented with the permission of
Dynamic Positioning System (DPS) Model
Presented with the permission of
Class 3 Drilling Vessel
End State:
Loss of Location
Initiating Events:
• Drift-off
• Drive-off
• Push-off
Next Activities with Anadarko Petroleum Corporation
29
Presented with the permission of
Expand the PRA Model to Include:
• BOP Surface Control Systems & Control System
Sensors
• Emergency Disconnect Sequence
• Dead Man & Auto-Shear Sequences
• Hydraulic Lines and MUX Cables
• Mud System Sensors, Mud Logger Sensors;
Driller Shack Sensors
• Tool Pusher Monitoring; Company Man
Monitoring; Real Time Shore-Based Monitoring
Shell – NASA Space Act Agreement “Kick-Off” Meeting: July 6, 2017
New Well Control Rule from BSEE [30 CFR 250.734 (a)(3)] will require
additional subsea accumulator volume for hydraulic fluids.
