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Risk Factors are not predictive factors due to protective
factorsCarl C. Bell, MD
Prospects for the Prevention of Mental Illness:New Developments and New Challenges
Committee Charge
Review promising areas of research Highlight areas of key advances and
persistent challenges Examine the research base within a
developmental framework Review the current scope of federal efforts Recommend areas of emphasis for future
federal policies and programs of research
Committee Members
KENNETH WARNER (Chair), School of Public Health, University of Michigan THOMAS BOAT (Vice Chair), Cincinnati Children’s Hospital Medical Center WILLIAM R. BEARDSLEE, Department of Psychiatry, Children’s Hospital Boston CARL C. BELL, University of Illinois at Chicago, Community Mental Health Council ANTHONY BIGLAN, Center on Early Adolescence, Oregon Research Institute C. HENDRICKS BROWN, College of Public Health, University of South Florida E. JANE COSTELLO, Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, Duke
University Medical Center TERESA D. LaFROMBOISE, School of Education, Stanford University RICARDO F. MUNOZ, Department of Psychiatry, University of California, San Francisco PETER J. PECORA, Casey Family Programs and School of Social Work, University of
Washington BRADLEY S. PETERSON, Pediatric Neuropsychiatry, Columbia University LINDA A. RANDOLPH, Developing Families Center, Washington, DC IRWIN SANDLER, Prevention Research Center, Arizona State University
MARY ELLEN O’CONNELL, Study Director
IOM: Reducing Suicide Report where the notion that risk factors were not predictive factors due to protective factors developed.
Categories of Adverse Childhood Experiences
Psychological abusePhysical abuseSexual abuseViolence against motherLiving with household members who were
substance abusersLiving with household members who were
mentally ill or suicidalLiving with ex-offender household members.
RESULTS
More than half of respondents (52%) experienced > 1 category of adverse childhood exposure
6.2% reported > 4 exposures.
RESULTS
Persons who experienced 4 or more categories of childhood exposure, compared to those who had experienced none had:7.4 fold increase for alcoholism10.3 fold increase for drug abuse4.6 fold increase for depression12.0 fold increase in suicide attempts.
RESULTS
Persons who experienced 4 or more categories of childhood exposure, compared to those who had experienced none had 2.2 fold increase in smoking2.2 fold increase poor self-rated health 3.2 fold increase in > 50 sexual
intercourse partners2.5 fold increase in sexually
transmitted disease.
RESULTS
Persons who experienced 4 or more categories of childhood exposure compared to those who had experienced none had2.2 fold increase in ischemic heart disease1.9 fold increase cancer,3.9 fold increase in chronic lung disease
(bronchitis and emphysema),1.6 fold increase in skeletal fractures,2.4 fold increase in liver disease.
Facts about Depression & Suicide
20,000 out of 100,000 people get depressed 5,000 out of 100,000 people attempt suicide 11-20 out of 100,000 people complete
suicide. Something must be protecting the 19,980
people who are depressed and the 4,980 people who have attempted suicide.
Trauma is Ubiquitous
Bell & Jenkins (1985) found that 25% & 30% of inner-city Chicago youth, ages 7-15, had seen a shooting & stabbing.
Using structured telephone interviews in a national sample of 4,008 adult women, Resnick et al (1993) found a lifetime rate of exposure to any type of traumatic event of 69%.
Kessler et al (The National Comorbidity Survey - 1995) found that more 50% of nearly 6,000 subjects, ages 15 – 54, had experienced a traumatic event during their lifetime & most people had experienced more than one.
Breslau et al (1998) examined trauma exposure & the diagnosis of PTSD in a community sample of 2,181 individuals in the Detroit area and found that the lifetime prevalence of trauma exposure was 89.6%.
Exposure To A Traumatic Event Does Not Automatically Put A person On A Path To Develop PTSD: The Importance
of Protective Factors To Promote Resiliency
Kessler et al (1995) found 8% of males and 20% of females Breslau et al (1992) found 10% of males and 14% of females
who were exposed to trauma had a lifetime prevalence rate of PSTD)
Exposure to a traumatic stress does automatically mean a victim of trauma is predisposed to develop PTSD.
Most people affected by a trauma event will adapt in a period of 3 – 6 months following trauma (Riggs et al, 1995) and only a small proportion will develop long-term psychiatric disorders (Bryant, 2006; Bryant 2006).
Child Welfare: CANS Psychiatric Symptoms Integrated Assessment, FY06
25.4
17.9 17.7 16.7
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Trauma Attach Anger Depress
% N=1375
The Impact of Trauma Experiences on Risk Behaviors
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
-2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2
Traumatic Experience Score (10,25,50,75,90 Pctl)
Ris
k A
ve
rag
e (
z)
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
-2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2
Traumatic Experience Score (10,25,50,75,90 Pctl)
Ris
k A
ve
rag
e (
z)
STR 90th Pctl = 1.27
STR 75th Pctl = 0.72
STR 50th Pctl = -0.01
STR 25th Pctl = -0.73
STR 10th Pctl = -1.38
Risk of Symptoms & Strengths
The Contribution of Prevention Science
The scientific foundation has been created for the nation to begin to create a society in which young people arrive at adulthood with the skills, interests, assets, and health habits needed to live healthy, happy, and productive lives in caring relationships with others.
Disorders Are Common and Costly
Around 1 in 5 young people (14-20%) have a current disorder
Estimated $247 billion in annual costs Costs to multiple sectors – education,
justice, health care, social welfare Non-monetary costs to the individual
and family
Dr. David Satcher’s Children’s Mental Health Conference suggested our Nation focus on:• Children in Child Protective Services•Children in Juvenile Justice Facilities•Children in Special Education
Preventive Opportunities Early in Life
Early onset (¾ of adult disorders had onset by age 24; ½ by age 14)
First symptoms occur 2-4 years prior to diagnosable disorder
There are common risk factors for multiple, different problems and disorders
NIMH Prevention Spending - 2008 Prevention (RCDC FY2008) = $208,278,505
695 grants in this pile but only 60 (8.6%) were prevention grants. Prevention Effectiveness Research (RCDC FY2008) = $34,281,125
107 grants in this category and about 32 (29.9%) were prevention grants. Prevention Health Services Research (RCDC FY2008) = $28,970,981
100 grants here but only 15 (15%) were prevention grants (liberaldefinition).
Dissemination and Implementation Research = $23,746,06267 of these grants and 6 (9%) were prevention grants.
Dissemination and Implementation Research in Prevention = $4,703,19518 grants and 6 (33%) were prevention grants & some PI's were in the above category.
Effectiveness Research (RCDC FY2008) = $76,805,163217 grants and 32 (14.5%) were prevention grants.
Health Services Research (RCDC FY2008) = $94,273,008328 grants and 16 (4.9%) were prevention grants & some PI’s were in theabove category.
Key Core Concepts of Prevention
1. Prevention requires a paradigm shift
2. Mental health and physical health are inseparable
3. Successful prevention is inherently interdisciplinary
4. Mental, emotional, and behavioral disorders are developmental
5. Coordinated community level systems are needed to support young people
6. Developmental perspective is key
How are we functioning?
Different languageDifferent language Different goals Different goals
Resource silosResource silosActivity-drivenActivity-driven
We need Synergy and a Integrated System
Common languageCommon language
Evidence basedEvidence based
Maximize resourcesMaximize resources
Outcome driven
Outcome driven
Common Risk Factors for Multiple Problems Poverty
Coercive processes in families
Lack of self-regulation
Aggressive social behavior that is developmentally appropriate
Risk Factors Are Not Predictive Factors Due To Protective Factors
The Critical Role of Self-Regulation Neuroscience and behavioral
research are converging on the importance of self-regulation for successful development
Children who do not develop the capacity to inhibit impulsive behavior, to plan, and to regulate their emotion are at high risk for behavioral and emotional difficulties
Defining Prevention and Promotion
Prevention should not include the preventive aspects of treatment
Prevention and promotion overlap, but promotion has important distinct role
Mental health not just the absence of disorder
Mental Health Promotion Aims to: Enhance individuals’ ability to achieve
developmentally appropriate tasks (developmental competence)
Enhance individuals’ positive sense of self-esteem, mastery, well-being, and social inclusion
Strengthen their ability to cope with adversity
Generic Features of Preventive Interventions
Reduce or minimize toxic biological and psychological processes
Richly reinforce self-regulated, prosocial behavior
Teach prosocial skills and values Foster acceptance
Evidence that Some Disorders Can be Prevented
Risk and protective factors focus of research
Interventions are tied to these factors Multi-year effects on substance
abuse, conduct disorder, antisocial behavior, aggression and child maltreatment
Evidence that Some Disorders Can be Prevented
Indications that incidence of adolescent depression can be reduced
Interventions that target family adversity reduce depression risk and increase effective parenting
Emerging evidence for prevention of clinical schizophrenia
Nurse-Family Partnership* Pregnancy through infancy Focus on
Prenatal care Maternal smoking Mothering Contraception Work life
* Funded in part by NIDA
Nurse-Family Partnership Evaluated in three randomized trials for
poor, teenager single mothers, Significant effects on
Abuse and neglect
Children’s behavioral development
Mother’s economic wellbeing
Time to next baby
Children’s arrest as adolescent
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
Comparison Nurse P Nurse P&I
PC-NP & C-NPI = .005
Adjusted rates of arrests, 15-year olds, Elmira
CPS CRADLE TO CLASSROOM
Collaborative initiative with Chicago Public Health Department, six hospitals, & other agencies for pregnant & parenting teens
Trains teens in the development of parenting skills and accessing community resources
Provides teens access to prenatal, nutritional, medical, social, and child care services
Provides counseling to new mothers around issues of domestic violence
CPS CRADLE TO CLASSROOM
Some 2000 teenagers in 54 Chicago schools that offer this program had babies in 2002. All 495 seniors graduated, and 78% of them enrolled in 2- or 4-year college programs.
Only 5 of the women had a repeat pregnancy while still in school; 4 were graduating seniors, and the other, a junior, stayed in school. Eighty-five teen fathers also participated in the program, learning parenting skills under the supervision of a male mentor at each school.
The program's annual budget was $3.7 million
Positive Parenting Program—Triple P*
A community-wide system of parenting supports that includes brief media communications,
brief advice for specific problems, and
more extensive interventions when needed
Multiple randomized trials showing benefit Including an RCT in 18 counties in South
Carolina
* Funded in part by NIDA
Substantiated Child Maltreatment
0
4
8
12
16
Ra
tes p
er
1,0
00
Ch
ild
ren
(0
-8 Y
ea
rs)
Triple P Counties Control Counties
Before Triple P After Triple P
.000
.500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
3.500
4.000
4.500
Ra
tes
pe
r 1
,00
0 C
hild
ren
(0
-8 Y
ea
rs)
Triple P Counties Control Counties
Child Out-of-Home Placements
Effect size = 1.22, p <.01, showing Triple P decreased medical injuries in counties using Triple P, compared to control counties not receiving Triple P increasing.
Before Triple P After Triple P
Strengthening Families 10-14 (Spoth et al., 2001)*
Group-based parenting program for parents of early adolescents
Effects up to six years later
Reduced tobacco, alcohol, & drug use—including methamphetamine use
Reduced delinquency Cost-effectiveness (Aos et al., 2004)
Savings of $7.82 per dollar invested
Total savings of $5,805 per youth
* Funded by NIDA
The Family Check-Up* Provides parenting support to families of adolescents via
a family resource center in middle schools Effects as much as five years later
Reduced substance use
Fewer arrests
Better school attendance & academic performance Cost-effectiveness (Aos et al., 2004)
Savings of $5.02 per dollar invested
Total savings of $1,938 per youth
* Funded in part by NIDA
New Beginnings Program (NBP)
Small group program for divorcing families
Emphases on learning new skills and applying them in the family
56
79
16
8
28
13
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Per
cent
age
0 - 2 3 - 9 10 +
Number of Use
Marijuana Use -- Last 12 Months
Control NBP
CMHC’s Work in McLean County, Illinois The twin cities of Bloomington/Normal and
Peoria, Illinois are located in McLean and Peoria counties, respectively, 135 -160 miles South of Chicago.
The two cities have a combined population base of 227,000 residents (Brinkhoff, 2005), approximately 25 percent of whom are African-American (Children and Family Research Center, 2003).
CMHC’s Work in McLean County, Illinois Of the counties in this Central Illinois area
(Fulton, Marshall, McLean, Peoria, Tazwell, and Wollford), McLean and Peoria are the only two with a substantial African-American population – 10.2% and 37.6% respectively, with all the rest having less than 1% (Children and Family Research Center, 2003).
CMHC’s Work in McLean County, Illinois In 1999, the Illinois Department of Children and Family
Services learned there was a problem in child protective services in McLean & Peoria counties in Illinois
In 1999, the average rate of removal of children from their families was 4/1,000.
In 1999, in McLean and Peoria counties in Illinois, the average rate of removal of children from their families was 35 - 40/1,000.
By 2000, in McLean and Peoria counties in Illinois, the official rate of removal of children from their families was 25/1,000.
CMHC’s Work in McLean County, Illinois In early 2001, CMHC’s Executive
Administrative Team began a comprehensive assessment of the child protective services in McLean and Peoria counties.
CMHC’s Work in McLean County, Illinois The assessment included windshield surveys
(the process of driving through the community and noting community strengths, e.g. a youth recreational club, and deficits, e.g., a crack house) across the city and interviews with DCFS consumers, key informants from the State’s Attorney’s Office, DCFS employees, elected officials, community activitists, case workers, and other social service agency workers.
CMHC’s Work in McLean County, Illinois Completed in late 2001, the assessment
revealed IDCFS was quite active in taking custody of children felt to be in danger in McLean and Peoria County.
There were three private (purchase of service – POS) agencies in McLean County that received children taken into custody.
Investigations were neither comprehensive nor complete, and African-Americans had become extremely distrustful of IDCFS procedures.
CMHC’s Work in McLean County, Illinois Parents and alleged perpetrators reported they
were not being informed of their rights or the results of the investigation consistently.
Additionally, when children were taken into state custody, children and their parents were not being prepared for placement.
The McLean and Peoria offices were making placement decisions before collecting all required information, and without considering all possible alternatives to placement.
CMHC’s Work in McLean County, Illinois
When investigations raised concerns about domestic violence, African-American children were quickly taken into custody despite the dearth of domestic violence treatment services needed to rehabilitate the family.
The same occurred in cases involving alcohol & substance abuse, there were few treatment services available to address the issue
CMHC’s Work in McLean County, Illinois
In addition, inconsistent application of policies governing investigations and case management further compounded the problem. Lastly, the assessment found that the documentation in investigative and service case files did not always provide evidence that investigators and caseworkers were receiving regular supervision. Further, services to intact families needed substantial improvement.
CMHC’s Work in McLean County, Illinois
Both the McLean County & the Peoria County field offices experienced a significant amount of turnover of child welfare service workers & supervisors. Moreover, since there was only one field supervisor and one clinical services manager for both offices, the constant demand to train new staff negatively impacted the way cases were handled at both sites.
Triadic Theory of Influence
Sociological theories of social control and social bonding (Akers et al., 1979; Elliott et al., 1985)
Peer clustering (Oetting & Beauvais, 1986) Cultural identity (Oetting & Beauvais, 1990-91) Psychological theories of attitude change & behavioral
prediction (Fishbein & Ajzen, 1975; Ajzen, 1985) Personality development (Digman, 1990) Social learning (Akers et al., 1979; Bandura, 1977, 1986) Integrative theories (e.g., Jessor & Jessor's, Problem Behavior
Theory; Brook’s Family Interaction Theory, Hawkins’ Social Development Theory)
See Petraitis, Flay and Miller (1995).
Community PsychiatryHealth Behavior Change
Field Principle Operationalization
Rebuilding the village Build community collaborations to support troubled families
Providing access to modern technology Transport evidence-based assessment and treatment to the community
Increasing connectedness Organizational/staff development
Increasing social and emotional skills Organizational/staff development
Increasing self-esteem Actualize quality assurance systems to monitor IDCFS practices
Reestablishing the adult protective shield Actualize quality assurance systems to monitor IDCFS practices
Minimizing trauma Take a system approach to the problem & ensure that each stakeholder has support
Strategies and InterventionsUrban Services
Family AdvocatesThe purpose of the Family Advocate is to provide advocacy
and case management services to children and their families who are involved in the child welfare system.
The Family Advocate ensures the delivery of culturally competent services through on-going support and guidance to children and their families.
The program was implemented in August 2002 in which the Advocates completed departmental trainings (Foundation, Child Protection Investigations, and Child Welfare Specialists) along with becoming CERAP certified. Partnerships with Faith Based Community.
Strategies and InterventionsDCFS
Citizen Quality Assurance Panel While waiting for this panel to be operationalized, CMHC
has been performing this task. The Citizen Quality Assurance Panel - voluntary Citizen
Review Panel established using the National Association of Roster Reviewers’ guidelines for independent reviews.
Review cases regarding safety decisions that were made during the investigative process or when families request a special review of their opened intact or permanency cases based on services identification and delivery, the lack of reasonable efforts made by the IDCFS/POS agency, and other identified permanency issues.
Outcomes in McLean County FY00 through FY02
Reported Abuse and Neglect by Race
31.125.1
149
43.337.4
0102030405060708090
100110120130140150
FY00 FY02
European-American (- 19.3%)
African-American (- 1.5%)
Hispanic (- 13.6%)
Outcomes in McLean County FY00 through FY02
Children Removed by Race
3.691.58
35.05
13.58
1.16 1.16
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
FY00 FY02
European-American (- 57.2%)
African-American (- 61.3%)
Hispanic (0%)
Evidence that Depressive Disorders Can be Prevented Clarke et al. (2001) found that a
group program for adolescent offspring of depressed parents could reduce the incidence of depression to a level no higher than for adolescents whose parents were not depressed.
Bruce, Fisher, Pears, & Levine (2008)
Relation between Neglect and Morning CortisolLevels
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
Morning Cortisol Level
Severi
ty o
f N
eg
lect
Low Average High
F(2, 114) = 4.27, p < .05
Severity neglect in low, average, and high morning cortisol groups
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
Morning Cortisol Level
Severi
ty o
f N
eg
lect
Low Average High
F(2, 114) = 4.27, p < .05
Foster kids and adoptees from overseas orphanages show this disrupted pattern involving low daytime cortisol, and associated with neglect
Multidimensional Treatment Foster Care for Preschoolers (MTFC)
Training of foster parents in behavioral parenting practices
24/7 support of foster parents RCT comparing MTFC with Regular
Foster Care (RFC) Reduction in caregiver stress Increase blunted diurnal HPA axis
activity for RFC and return to stable Diurnal activity for MTFC children
The Good Behavior Game* Classrooms are divided into teams, and
each team can win rewards if the entire team is “on task” (e.g., fewer than a specified number of rule violations during the game period) or otherwise acting in accordance with previously stated teacher expectations
Rewards include extra free time, stars on charts, and special team privileges.
* Funded in part by NIDA
The Good Behavior Game* Classroom teams in elementary school earn small
rewards for being on-task and cooperative Randomized trial in Baltimore Inner City Schools
Had preventive effects even
into young adulthood
Substance abuse disorders
Antisocial personality
* Funded in part by NIDA
Aban Aya* Chicago high poverty African-American
neighborhoods School/community intervention
Social skills training In-service training of school staff; Task force to develop policies, conduct school-wide fairs,
seek funds for the school, & conduct field tripsParent training workshops.
Significant effects on violence, drug use, & boys recent sexual intercourse
* Funded in part by NIDA
Community Psychiatry Protective Factor Field Principles
Rebuilding the Village/Constructing Social Fabric Access to Modern Medical Technology Connectedness Social Skills Self Esteem - Activities that create a sense of power; a
sense of connectedness; a sense of models; a sense of uniqueness
Reestablish the Adult Protective Shield Minimize the Effects of Trauma
RE-ESTABLISHING THE ADULT PROTECTIVE SHIELD OUTCOMESCPS SUMMARY
1997-1998 1998-1999 1999-2000# Random sweeps
59 65 89
Firearms 0 1 1Knives, box cutters, razors
107 96 54
Narcotics 75 63 51Other weapons
158 200 29
Evidence of School-related Effects
School-based violence prevention can reduce aggressive problems by one-quarter to one-third
Social and emotional learning programs may improve academic outcomes
Promising but limited benefit-cost information
Needed to Build on Existing Knowledge Effectiveness trials Dissemination Research
Experimental evaluations of dissemination strategies
Implement evidence-based programs, policies, and “kernels”
Comprehensive neighborhood and community interventions
Prevention is possible
Teacher training in classroom instruction & management, child social & emotional skill development, & parent workshops were the intervention.
A significant multi-varied effect across all 16 primary outcome indices were found.
Specific effects included significantly better educational and economic attainment, mental health and sexual health by age 27 years (all P<.05).
Hawkins JD, Kosterman R, Catalano RF, Hill KG, and Abbott RD. Effects of Social Development Intervention in Childhood 15 Years Later. Arch Pediatr Adolesc Med. 162(12), pp 1133-1141, 2008.
Implementation
Need to move from efficacy toward effectiveness trials
Implementation research has highlighted:ComplexityConsideration of the important role
of community
Implementation Approaches
Implement specific evidence-based programs
Adapt (and evaluate) evidence-based program to community needs
Develop and test community-driven models
Opportunities for Linkages with Neuroscience
Interactions between modifiable environmental factors and expression of genes linked to behavior
Greater understanding of biological processes of brain development
Opportunities for integration of genetics and neuroscience research with prevention research
Putting Knowledge Into Practice: Overarching Recommendations
White House should establish ongoing multi-agency strategic planning mechanism& Align federal resources with the strategyPatient Protection and Affordable Care Act.
States and communities should develop networked systems
Putting Knowledge Into Practice: Overarching Recommendations
Make healthy mental, emotional, & behavioral development a national priority by establishing public prevention goals. The first, the National Prevention, Health
Promotion, & Public Health Council, will sit at the Department of Health and Human Services, and will be chaired by the Surgeon General.
The Council will provide federal coordination & leadership in regard to prevention, wellness, health promotion, the public health system, & integrative health care, & will develop a National Prevention Strategy.
Putting Knowledge Into Practice: Overarching Recommendations
State grants for evidence-based early childhood home visitation programming are also included in health reform. $1.5 billion over five years will be awarded to improve maternal and children health, childhood injury prevention, school readiness, juvenile delinquency, family economic factors, and coordination of community resources.
Putting Knowledge Into Practice: Funding
Prevention set-aside in mental health block grant. The Prevention and Public Health Fund
administered by the Office of the Secretary at HHS will support wellness and disease prevention activities authorized by the Public Health Services Act at an unprecedented level.
Nationally, this new fund will provide $15 billion for public health programs over 10 years.
Putting Knowledge Into Practice: Funding
Braided funding Fund state, county, and local prevention
and promotion networks State and local governments & community-based
agencies will be eligible to compete for a number of grants.
Community Transformation Grants will be available for activities that reduce chronic disease rates, prevent the development of secondary conditions, address health disparities, and improve the evidence base for prevention
Putting Knowledge Into Practice: Funding
Target resources to communities with elevated risk factors
Facilitate researcher-community partnerships
Prioritize use of evidence-based programs and promote rigorous evaluation across range of settings
Putting Knowledge Into Practice: Data Collection and Monitoring
HHS should provide annual prevalence data and data on key risk and protective factors
SAMHSA should expand service use data collection
Putting Knowledge Into Practice: Workforce Development
HHS, ED, and Justice should develop training guidelines
Set aside funds for competitive prevention training grants
Professional training programs should include prevention
Certification and accrediting bodies should set relevant standards
Continuing a Course of Rigorous Research:Overarching Recommendations
NIH should develop comprehensive 10-year prevention and promotion research plan
Research funders should establish parity between research on preventive interventions and treatment interventions
Continuing a Course of Rigorous Research: 10-Year Priorities
Prevention (specific disorders and common risk factors) and promotion
Replication, long-term outcomes, and multiple groups
Collaborations across institutes and agencies for developmentally related outcomes
Further improve current interventions
Continuing a Course of Rigorous Research: 10-Year Priorities
Guidelines and funding for economic analyses
Etiology and measurement of developmental competencies
Effectiveness of mass media and internet interventions
Address research gaps in populations and settings
Additional Information
Report available at: http://www.nap.edu
Summary available as free download Search the full report on line