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Risk assessment in strategic and annual planning of internal audit Lvov 2012 REPUBLIC OF ARMENIA MINISTRY OF FINANCE

Risk assessment in strategic and annual planning of internal audit Lvov 2012 REPUBLIC OF ARMENIA MINISTRY OF FINANCE

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Page 1: Risk assessment in strategic and annual planning of internal audit Lvov 2012 REPUBLIC OF ARMENIA MINISTRY OF FINANCE

Risk assessment in strategic and annual planning of internal audit

Lvov 2012

REPUBLIC OF ARMENIA

MINISTRY OF FINANCE

Page 2: Risk assessment in strategic and annual planning of internal audit Lvov 2012 REPUBLIC OF ARMENIA MINISTRY OF FINANCE

Audit space

Internal audit covers all public institutions : Armenia President’s cabinet,Secretariat of People’s Assembly,Secretariat of Government,Ministries and departments.

Page 3: Risk assessment in strategic and annual planning of internal audit Lvov 2012 REPUBLIC OF ARMENIA MINISTRY OF FINANCE

Object of audit

Object of audit in Armenia are such business-processes in an organization that are carried out in order to accomplish its goals.

Page 4: Risk assessment in strategic and annual planning of internal audit Lvov 2012 REPUBLIC OF ARMENIA MINISTRY OF FINANCE

Models used in risk assessment

A number of models are used in risk assessment in Armenia:Model based on risk indicators,Model based on criteria

applicable to groups of organizations.

Page 5: Risk assessment in strategic and annual planning of internal audit Lvov 2012 REPUBLIC OF ARMENIA MINISTRY OF FINANCE

Model underlying the IA manual in Armenia

Risk assessment is based on self-evaluation of auditees.

Page 6: Risk assessment in strategic and annual planning of internal audit Lvov 2012 REPUBLIC OF ARMENIA MINISTRY OF FINANCE

Identification of risks

Along with the risk assessment, the audit unit also receives information on the nature of the risk

Assessment is scored from 1 to 4

N Brief overview of process

Risk description

Probability of risk

Evaluation of impact

1

2

Page 7: Risk assessment in strategic and annual planning of internal audit Lvov 2012 REPUBLIC OF ARMENIA MINISTRY OF FINANCE

What auditors do when adjusting risk indicators

The audit unit, having received information on risk evaluation from auditees, shall apply some adjustment ratios.Adjustment ratios are selected within the range from 0.5 to 1.5.

Risk indicator = A*a*b*…*n

Page 8: Risk assessment in strategic and annual planning of internal audit Lvov 2012 REPUBLIC OF ARMENIA MINISTRY OF FINANCE

Adjustment ratiosShare of financingComplaints, if anyIncentivesAny structural or other changesEtc.

Page 9: Risk assessment in strategic and annual planning of internal audit Lvov 2012 REPUBLIC OF ARMENIA MINISTRY OF FINANCE

Risk assessmentProbability of risk

4 5 5 5

3 4 5 5

2 3 4 5

1 2 3 4

  Impact

Page 10: Risk assessment in strategic and annual planning of internal audit Lvov 2012 REPUBLIC OF ARMENIA MINISTRY OF FINANCE

Risk group Field

High risk 5

Significant risk 4

Medium risk 3

Low risk 1 and 2

10

Risk groups

Page 11: Risk assessment in strategic and annual planning of internal audit Lvov 2012 REPUBLIC OF ARMENIA MINISTRY OF FINANCE

Risk group Sampling percentage

High risk 100%

Significant risk 33%

Medium risk 17%

Low risk 5%

11

Sampling percentages by risk groups

Page 12: Risk assessment in strategic and annual planning of internal audit Lvov 2012 REPUBLIC OF ARMENIA MINISTRY OF FINANCE

Identifying priorities in sampling

While sampling for significant, medium and low risk groups, it is necessary to assess priorities, i.e. those processes that must be sampled for strategic and annual planning.

Page 13: Risk assessment in strategic and annual planning of internal audit Lvov 2012 REPUBLIC OF ARMENIA MINISTRY OF FINANCE

Priority assessmentThe assessment is made based on

the risk value in the previous 3 years.In order to assess the priority ratio, it

is necessary to compare the risk value obtained by the auditors with values for each of the previous years.

Depending on how this risk value has changed, they will identify the first ratio

Page 14: Risk assessment in strategic and annual planning of internal audit Lvov 2012 REPUBLIC OF ARMENIA MINISTRY OF FINANCE

Matrix for design ratio (K)

Page 15: Risk assessment in strategic and annual planning of internal audit Lvov 2012 REPUBLIC OF ARMENIA MINISTRY OF FINANCE

Impact by years

Previous 3rd year

Previous 2nd year

Previous year

Anticipation ratio (КУ)

1 2 3

Page 16: Risk assessment in strategic and annual planning of internal audit Lvov 2012 REPUBLIC OF ARMENIA MINISTRY OF FINANCE

Formula for priority ratio (КП)

КП = (К1)x(КУ1) + (К2)x(КУ2) + (К3)x(КУ3)

Page 17: Risk assessment in strategic and annual planning of internal audit Lvov 2012 REPUBLIC OF ARMENIA MINISTRY OF FINANCE

Strategic planning and estimate of resourcesAfter all the necessary calculations have been made, all selected processes must be included in strategic plan

Assessment of resources is necessary in order to identify the requirements for execution of audit tasks.

If the required resources are not sufficient for execution of the annual plan, the audit unit shall involve additional resources, including experts.

Page 18: Risk assessment in strategic and annual planning of internal audit Lvov 2012 REPUBLIC OF ARMENIA MINISTRY OF FINANCE

Thank you for attention!

Grigor AramyanHead of Intenral Audit Methodology

Department, Ministry of Finance, Republic of Armenia

Tel.: +37491 40-70-67e-mail: [email protected]