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Risk Assessment and Risk Management
The Hague, Netherlands, 3 November 2014
Janani VivekanandaHead of Environment, Climate Change and Security Programme
International Alert
1. The compound nature of risks
2. Uncertainty and a few certainties
3. Challenges of applying risk assessments to Fragile States
4. How to prioritise actions
Seven Compound Climate-Fragility Risks
adelphi
Syria: Drought – displacement – urban pressures
Source: Years of Living Dangerously 2014
Fragility Spectrum
Resilience states:
• have the capacity and legitimacy of governing a population and its
territory.
• can adapt to change and uncertainty.
• build constructive relationships with their citizens, maintain
functioning institutions, and provide basic services.
• can absorb shocks and handle stresses peacefully while
maintaining political stability and preventing violence.
…the flipside
• If climate change is a ‘risk multiplier’ which interacts with pre-existing
social, economic and political risks, making peace and stability harder to
achieve,
• then addressing the pre-existing root causes of vulnerability will help build
resilience to climate change and contribute to development, peace and
stability.
1. The compound nature of risks
2. Uncertainty and a few certainties
3. Challenges of applying risk assessments to Fragile States
4. How to prioritise actions
5. Conclusion
Uncertainties and Certainties:
Elements of Risk
Adapted from IPCC 2007
Vulnerability
SensitivityAvailability and importance of the affected resource
ExposureRate and variation of climate change
Adaptive CapacityContext and impact specific
Dependent on climate change impacts and environment Dependent on climate change impacts and environment
Dependent on governance and stability Dependent on governance and stability
1. The compound nature of risks
2. Uncertainty and a few certainties
3. Challenges of applying risk assessments to Fragile States
4. How to prioritise actions
Understanding complexity
N. Shresta/International Alert
1. The compound nature of risks
2. Uncertainty and a few certainties
3. Challenges of applying risk assessments to Fragile States
4. How to prioritise actions
How to prioritise: some guiding questions
• 1. Does the intervention directly or indirectly affect resilience?
• 2. Are the outcomes of the intervention sensitive to weather?
• 3. Does the intervention have long-term effects?
• 4. Is it difficult to reverse or retrofit the intervention or its effects?
• 5. Are the stakes high?
Conclusion
Janani VivekanandaHead of Climate Change and SecurityInternational Alert, [email protected]+44 207 627 6823www.international-alert.org