RISK ASSESSING THE ‘PERFECT MURDER`

Alan Smith

Director | Matrix Risk Control

IADC SAPC

16 February 2017

A RISK ASSESSMENT AS WE KNOW IT?

TIMELINE OF A

MURDER

March 22nd Fraser arrested for Att murder

April 5th Car set on fire April 28th

Arlene vanishes

April 26th Fraser +2 charged

January 7th Murder Trial No. 1

January 29th Fraser Convicted Of murder January 30th

Fraser begins life Sentence May 25th

Conviction quashed

April 23rd Murder Trial No. 2

May 30th Fraser convicted For second time

Premeditated murder is the crime of wrongfully and intentionally causing the death of another human being…

This particular High RiskTask = The premeditated murder of his wife.

…after rationally considering the timing or method of doing so, in order to either increase the likelihood of success, or to evade detection or apprehension

PREMEDITATED CRIMES SPONTANEOUS CRIMES

In the UK 98% of murders are spontaneous

Nat Fraser

SO WHY? - HIGH TARIFF REWARD

MONEY

Impending divorce settlement

FREEDOM

Facing lengthy prison sentence

CONTROL

Of his life and what’s in it

NAT FRASERS 4PS

PREPARATION PLANNING

PEOPLE PROCESS

Selecting Team / Roles / Method Body Disposal /

Alibi

Team Briefings – Covert meetings – His TBT !

Loyal, trustworthy and incentivised / Logistics /

Execution

De-Risking Police from a Murder Investigation (High) to a Missing person Enquiry

(Med/Low)

Investigative Challenges

NO BODY NO CRIME SCENE

NO CONFESSION

NO DIRECT WITNESSES

FRASER`S

MISTAKES

ALIBI

INSIDE

KNOWLEDGE

DRUG

STAGING

LIBRARY

VISIT

ACCOMPLICE

CAR

SOURCING

MEDICINES

& GLASSES

ARLENE’S

RINGS

FRASER`S

MISTAKES

ALIBI

INSIDE

KNOWLEDGE

DRUG

STAGING

LIBRARY

VISIT

ACCOMPLICE

CAR

SOURCING

MEDICINES

& GLASSES

ARLENE’S

RINGS

FRASER`S

BEHAVIOUR

OVERKILL RESPONSE

THE KIDS WILL BE FINE

MONEY STASH

AVOIDED CONTACT

WITH ACCOMPLICES

PRISON VISIT CCTV

MATCHED FAMILY

REWARD

INTERACTION WITH FAMILY

SHUNNED SOME

FRIENDS

FRASER`S

BEHAVIOUR

OVERKILL RESPONSE

THE KIDS WILL BE FINE

MONEY STASH

AVOIDED CONTACT

WITH ACCOMPLICES

PRISON VISIT CCTV

MATCHED FAMILY

REWARD

INTERACTION WITH FAMILY

SHUNNED SOME

FRIENDS

TYPICAL INCIDENT CAUSES

RARELY SINGLE MAJOR

MISTAKE

ACCUMULATION OF MINOR

ERRORS

FAILURE TO FOLLOW

PROCEDURES

UNEXPECTED CHANGE

POOR HUMAN

FACTORS

POOR INVESTIGATIONS

AND RCA

LESSONS NOT

LEARNED

NO ORGANISATIONAL

IMPROVEMENT

A toolset and learning experience

to get to the ROOT CAUSES of problems

more quickly and efficiently.

Uses proven INVESTIGATION techniques

grounded in forensic practices

to generate the optimum input data.

Utilises unique COMET ROOTMAPS

to identify root causes.

Assists in creating PREVENTIVE ACTIONS

to deal with the root cause preventing repeat

failure.

Application Areas

…any situation where you need to know why something went

wrong and how to prevent it again.

Safety Incidents Environmental Incidents

Project reviews Business strategy failures

Performance improvement Process failure

Market / Product failures Equipment failure

Accidents and injuries. Spillages, leaks and damage.

Learning lessons on failure to deliver. Understanding ‘lost’ and ‘wrong’ strategies.

Losses and inefficiencies. Non-adherence and ineffective.

Unable to achieve intended results. Costly shutdowns and outages

COMET Phases of Investigation &

Analysis…

What we see…

Today I’m fishing!

Committed JV Drilling COMET lens project partner Serious about improving sector safety and performance

Enthusiastic about investigation, analysis and improvement

Willing to contribute Drilling industry technical knowledge to project development

Be a geographical and sector COMET Champion and Enablor

What am I fishing for?

Over to You.

Any Questions?

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