Risk and Resilience:A Canadian Perspective

on Climate Change Adaptation

Donald S. Lemmen, PhDClimate Change Impacts and Adaptation DirectorateNatural Resources Canada

SBSTA 20Adaptation Workshop

18 June 2004Bonn

Outline

1 – why perceptions matter

2 – risk and perceptions of risk in Canada

3 – building awareness and engagement to

better manage risk

4 – areas for enhanced information exchange

Messages

• perceptions of risk and of capacity to adapt vary

• vulnerability to current climate at the local and regional level is often key to raising awareness of risk

• need to consider action in context of on-going decision-making processes

Why Understanding Perception of

Risk is ImportantRisk perception influences:

• mitigative and adaptive responses to climate change

• the timing and magnitude of response • the level of priority given to actions

Risk perception includes:• probability and severity of the stress• uncertainty• ability to respond to the stress

Atlantic Canada

Ontario and Quebec

The North

The Prairies

British Columbia

Canada

Current and FutureRisks of

Climate ChangeIn Canada

Differing Perceptions of Risk due to Climate Change

Areas where assessed risk, and perception of risk, are well aligned:

• where unprecedented climate impacts are observed

northern ecosystems, glacier-fed waters

• where current costs of extreme climate events are high

flooding, drought, storm surges

• where potentially direct impacts on human health and well-being

traditional food supplies, heat stress

Differing Perceptions of Risk due to Climate Change

Areas where assessed risk, and perception of risk, are poorly aligned

• where small, incremental changes approach critical thresholds

transportation, water resources

• where programs / policies insulate individuals from real affects

are such programs sustainable

• where limitations in ability to adapt are not well understood

coping range not defined

Keys to Managing Risk

1. Engage decision makers

2. Understanding climatic sensitivities and critical thresholds

3. Characterizing adaptive capacity

4. Assessing vulnerability

5. Integrating risks due to climate change into on-going decision making processes

Engaging Decision-makers

Who?• governments – multiple levels (local to national) and

multiple departments• industry and professional associations• planners

How?• speak in terms of their decision-making processes• focus on vulnerability to current climate• analyze resilience to address plausible futures, including

consideration of rates of change• address as part of on-going risk management – one of

several stresses to consider

Why?• to raise awareness of risks of climate change• to identify priorities for adaptation action

Canada’s National Adaptation Framework

Federal, Provincial and Territorial government initiative to:

• help jurisdictions develop individual adaptation strategies

• identify areas where jurisdictions can work together

Framework defines three broad needs

1. To build knowledge and understanding

2. To increase awareness and engagement

3. To build capacity to undertake action

Government of Canada’s Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Program

Program Elements:

1 – funding research and undertaking science assessment increasing focus on adaptation research targeting priority areas for decision-making

2 – Canadian Climate Impacts and Adaptation Research Network bringing together research and stakeholder

communities facilitates regional and sectoral vulnerability analysis

3 – coordination of policy analysis and development analysis of climate change implications for existing

policies and programs recognition that adaptation actions taken within one

region or sector will have significant implications for others

Some areas for continued information exchange

between all Parties

1. Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity• local and regional scale vulnerability assessment• assessing influences on adaptive capacity,

including perceptions of risk • assessing resilience to plausible futures

2. Adaptation Policies and Measures• approaches to enhance awareness and engage

decision-makers• frameworks and planning tools to integrate risks

due to climate change into on-going decision making processes

• understanding barriers (including risk perception) and incentives to implementation

• targeted policies and measures