Risiko – Risk-in-a-BoxAn open source risk modelling platform

Jonathan Griffin – Geophysicist, AIFDR

Who is AIFDR?• An initiative of the President of Indonesia and

Prime Minister of Australia to– Strengthen Indonesia’s capacity in disaster risk

management, and promote a more disaster resilient region.

• Jointly directed by BNPB and AusAID

Risk in a Box

• Indonesia’s 2007 DM Law requires all Provinces and many Districts to:

– Develop a disaster management plan– Based on a risk assessment

• Need a tool to facilitate these assessments– Open source, freely available and can run with or

without internet

Risk in a Box

• Framework for calculating spatial impact using a range of software tools

• Aims at underpinning risk assessment requirements

• Partnership with World Bank (Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery) and Geoscience Australia

Impact assessmentInput

• Hazard map (earthquake ground shaking, tsunami inundation depth, volcanic ash load...)

• Exposure map (population density, buildings)• Plugin for calculating impact (vulnerability curves)

• Output• Map of calculated impact at exposure locations• Specific statistics

Hazard Footprint Exposure

Fatalities 0%100%

MMI

Impact Function (vulnerability)

Generic Impact Assessment

Maumere, Flores, Tsunami simulation

• 1992 Tsunami generated by magnitude 7.8 earthquake

• ~ 2,000 fatalities• Maximum magnitude

considered possible on Flores Thrust is 8.1

• Population and infrastructure has grown since 1992

• Therefore historical event is not enough for disaster planning

Observered tsunami run-up heights from 1992 event. Field Survey by Tsuji (1995)

Tsunami inundation modelling

Inundation model results – Mw 8.1

Risk in a box - Inundation

Building data digitised from OpenStreetMap

Vulnerability function

Based on BNPB’s tsunami risk assessment guidelines

Depth Damage< 1 m < 25%1-3 m 25-50%> 3 m 50-100% Koshimura 2009. Fragility

functions from post-tsunami data in Banda Aceh

Impact assessment

Hazard Footprint Exposure

Fatalities 0%100%

MMI

Impact Function (vulnerability)

Sharing and combining multiple data sourcesBuilt using a GeoNode

Earthquake impact – Hazard, Mw 7.8

Exposure - population

Impact

Real time earthquake impact –use the same framework

More than a ‘Risk Map’• Geospatial data analysis• Adaptable to different questions

– Scenario impact assessment for disaster planning– Real time impact assessment– Financial risk assessment

• Different vulnerability functions can be used to solve these problems

Challenges

• Vulnerability functions• Improving map look and feel• Tools to facilitate exposure data upload

Risk in a Box summary• A platform for data sharing and analysis to

support resilient decision making• A flexible environment that can be adapted to

disaster managers needs• Combines the best of expert hazard and

vulnerability expertise with local knowledge of exposure

• All software free and open source• www.riskinabox.org

Questions