Rios Canyon Ranch AQ, Lakeside, California

August 2017 | CalAtlantic HomesRios Canyon Ranch AQ, Lakeside, CA

MARKET ASSESSMENT UPDATE

Rios Canyon Ranch AQ, Lakeside, California

2August 2017 | CalAtlantic HomesRios Canyon Ranch AQ, Lakeside, CA

CONTACT INFORMATIONThis market analysis was prepared by Meyers Research, a market research and consulting firm specializing in the realestate industry. It has been commissioned by CalAtlantic Homes.

Peter Dennehy served as Project Director and oversaw all aspects of this assignment. Alexis Wilmot managed theengagement on a day-to-day basis. Follow-up questions should be directed to Peter Dennehy at (858) 381-4380 [email protected].

OBJECTIVECalAtlantic is evaluating the development of a +/-300 to 400-unit master planned community on +/-600 acres just southof Interstate 8 in the Lakeside area of East San Diego County. The General Plan for the area allows for +/-300 units, butadditional units may be available under various approval scenarios. The land is currently used as an avocado farm andthe current owner would like to maintain some growing operations on the site and also investigate the feasibility of aprivate health club, resort, winery or similar facility, potentially as a joint-use facility with the new housing on the site. Thekey objective is to provide an update on pricing and absorption of an Age Qualified (“AQ”) product development scenario(using three product templates that CalAtlantic developed at the Auberge at Del Sur project).

LIMITING CONDITIONSCalAtlantic Homes is responsible for representations about its development plans, marketing expectations and fordisclosure of any significant information that might affect the ultimate realization of the projected results.

There will usually be differences between projected and actual results because events and circumstances frequently donot occur as expected, and the differences may be material.

We have no responsibility to update our report for events and circumstances occurring after the date of our report.

Payment of any and all of our fees and expenses is not in any way contingent upon any factor other than our providingservices related to this report.


Recommendations & Conclusions Rios Canyon Ranch AQ, Lakeside, CA


Aerial View and Hypothetical Site PlanThe aerial below represents the boundaries of Rios Canyon Ranch, which entails approximately 600 acres on the south side of theInterstate 8, just south of Lakeside and east of the City El Cajon, in the El Cajon 92021 zip code. The site plan below indicatescurrently assumed development areas (oriented north with views towards Lakeside and Blossom Valley, significant open spaceareas) – it is not depicting the AQ product plan. We assumed higher density products in lower areas, SFD homes in ridgeline areas.

LAKESIDE

EL CAJON

CREST

ALPINEBLOSSOM VALLEY


The updated Meyers pricing recommendations assume no added special taxes (total tax rate of 1.21%) and $250 per month HOA.The options and upgrades are estimated at 6% for the two smaller products, and 6.5% for the 6,000 square foot lots. Meyersanticipates that the that the best premium opportunities would be available along the ridgeline areas, and that the largest lots wouldbe placed here. Premium revenue for the cluster product is estimated at 1% of base price ($4,950 per unit), while the 4,000 SF lotsaverage 2.5% ($14,500) and the largest 6,000 SF lots are at 4% ($28,750). A buyer incentive of $5,000 factored in, to be appliedtowards closing costs or design center spending, but not as a reduction to the purchase price. Recommended base prices range from$445,000 to $745,000, and total average prices range from $524,600 for The Cottages to $789,100 for Summer House.

Product Recommendations

The Cottages: Plan 2 is detached, and is priced at a premium to the other plans, in line with sales history trends at Auberge.The Villas: Plans 2 and 3 are considered equal in value owing to a tradeoff between a smaller 1,750 SF true single story with a fullbedroom, versus an 1,900 SF with a pop-top and optional bedroom 3.Summerhouse: assumes these are plotted in more elevated, view/ridgeline lots.

COMMUNITY SPECIFICS FLOORPLANS RECOMMENDATIONSSubject Property Name Mo Base Incentives Net Base Net Base Assumptions Total Payment Assumptions 80.0%Location Size Sales Base Price/ Options / Price Price ($ Price/ Options / Estimated Total Price/ Monthly Base Addl Tax 4.0%Product Details Sales Summary Mix SF Bed Bath Level Pkg Pace Price SF Upgrades Reduction Impacting) SF Upgrades Premiums Price SF HOA Tax Rate Assess. Mo. Pmt.

AQ-Cottages CalAtlantic Homes 83 1,275 2 2.0 1 2 5.0 $444,990 $349 ($5,000) $0 $444,990 $349 $26,699 $4,450 $471,139 $370 $250 1.21% 0.00% $2,524Lakeside Rios Canyon AQ 83 1,550 3 2.0 1 2 $509,990 $329 ($5,000) $0 $509,990 $329 $30,599 $5,100 $540,689 $349 $250 1.21% 0.00% $2,860Product: Detached Condos Total Units: 249 83 1,800 3+0 2.0 1 2 $529,990 $294 ($5,000) $0 $529,990 $294 $31,799 $5,300 $562,089 $312 $250 1.21% 0.00% $2,964Configuration: 1,800-2,450 Units Sold: 0Lot Dimensions: 30x60-35x70 3 Months Sold: 0

Units Remaining: 249% Remaining: 100%

Summary Statistics: 1,542 5.0 $494,990 $321 ($5,000) $0 $494,990 $321 $29,699 $4,950 $524,639 $340 $250 1.21% 0.00% $2,783

AQ-Villas CalAtlantic Homes 28 1,625 2+O 2.0 1 2 4.0 $533,990 $329 ($5,000) $0 $533,990 $329 $32,039 $13,350 $574,379 $353 $250 1.21% 0.00% $3,023Lakeside Rios Canyon AQ 28 1,750 3 2.0 1 2 $584,990 $334 ($5,000) $0 $584,990 $334 $35,099 $14,625 $629,714 $360 $250 1.21% 0.00% $3,290Product: Single Family Total Units: 112 28 1,900 2+O 2.0 2 2 $589,990 $311 ($5,000) $0 $589,990 $311 $35,399 $14,750 $635,139 $334 $250 1.21% 0.00% $3,316Configuration: 4,000 Units Sold: 0 28 2,060 3 2.0 2 2 $604,990 $294 ($5,000) $0 $604,990 $294 $36,299 $15,125 $651,414 $316 $250 1.21% 0.00% $3,395Lot Dimensions: 50x80 3 Months Sold: 0


Summary Statistics: 1,834 4.0 $578,490 $315 ($5,000) $0 $578,490 $315 $34,709 $14,462 $622,662 $340 $250 1.21% 0.00% $3,256

AQ-Summerhouse CalAtlantic Homes 40 2,500 3 2.0 1 2 3.0 $694,990 $278 ($5,000) $0 $694,990 $278 $45,174 $27,800 $762,964 $305 $250 1.21% 0.00% $3,933Lakeside Rios Canyon AQ 42 2,700 3+O 2.0 2 2 $714,990 $265 ($5,000) $0 $714,990 $265 $46,474 $28,600 $785,064 $291 $250 1.21% 0.00% $4,040Product: Single Family Total Units: 124 42 3,000 3+O 3.0 2 2 $744,990 $248 ($5,000) $0 $744,990 $248 $48,424 $29,800 $818,214 $273 $250 1.21% 0.00% $4,200Configuration: 6,000 Units Sold: 0Lot Dimensions: 40x147 3 Months Sold: 0


Summary Statistics: 124 2,737 3.0 $718,700 $263 ($5,000) $0 $718,700 $263 $46,715 $28,748 $789,163 $288 $250 1.21% 0.00% $4,060


$400,000$420,000$440,000$460,000$480,000$500,000$520,000$540,000$560,000$580,000$600,000$620,000$640,000$660,000$680,000$700,000$720,000$740,000$760,000$780,000

1,250 1,500 1,750 2,000 2,250 2,500 2,750 3,000 3,250

Net

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Unit Size (Square Feet)

AQ-Cottages - Detached Condos,CalAtlantic Homes, 5.0 sls per mo

AQ-Villas - 4,000 sq ft, CalAtlanticHomes, 4.0 sls per mo

AQ-Summerhouse - 6,000 sq ft,CalAtlantic Homes, 3.0 sls per mo

Linear (AQ-Villas - 4,000 sq ft,CalAtlantic Homes, 4.0 sls per mo)

Source: Meyers LLC

This table summarizes the recommended product program. There is roughly $20,000 separation between the base pricerecommendations of each of the three product lines.

Product Recommendations

BASE PRICE NET BASE PRICE $ ASSUMPTIONS AVERAGE PRICE

Project/Subdivision Type Configuration # of Units Est % of Total Units

Average Unit Size

Base Price $/SFPrice

ImpactingIncentives

Net Base Price $/SF Options Premiums Average Price $/SF Estimated Sales/Month

AQ-Cottages Detached Condos 1,800-2,450 249 51% 1,542 $518,323 $336 $0 $518,323 $336 $25,916 $5,183 $544,423 $353 5.00

AQ-Villas Single Family 4,000 112 23% 1,834 $599,990 $327 $0 $599,990 $327 $30,000 $15,000 $639,989 $349 4.00

AQ-Summerhouse Single Family 6,000 124 26% 2,737 $763,522 $279 $0 $763,522 $279 $45,811 $30,541 $834,874 $305 3.00

485 100% 1,915 $599,872 $319 $0 $599,872 $319 $31,946 $13,933 $640,752 $340 12.00COMMUNITY SUMMARY

$20,000

$20,000


The active 55+ products in Southern California and some new home projects in East County are summarized below. Auberge at DelSur (just 3 homes left) and La Floresta in Orange County (Brea) are the highest priced active adult product in the market. InRiverside County, Four Seasons by K. Hovnanian in Beaumont is the lowest priced in the market, and the new Terramor master planhas two new age qualified product lines (Cortina and Ardena) which are selling rapidly. Prospect Fields and River Village in Santeeare tow new communities which opened earlier this year, and are included for perspective on market rate homes values (there are noother detached new projects actively selling in East County).

Competitive New Home Summary

BUILDER /UNIT COUNT SUMMARY SALES PACE AVERAGE MONTHLY

COMMUNITY DEVELOPER CITY LOT SIZE TOTAL RLSD SOLD AVAIL. REMAIN ALL 3 MO. SF NET PRICE $/SF HOA TAX PAYMENT

AQ-Cottages CalAtlantic Homes Lakeside 1,800-2,450 249 - 0 - 249 5.0 -- 1,542 $524,639 $340 $250 1.21% $2,783

AQ-Villas CalAtlantic Homes Lakeside 4,000 112 - 0 - 112 4.0 -- 1,834 $622,662 $340 $250 1.21% $3,256

AQ-Summerhouse CalAtlantic Homes Lakeside 6,000 124 - 0 - 124 3.0 -- 2,737 $789,163 $288 $250 1.21% $4,060

The Villas at Auberge CalAtlantic Homes San Diego 4,000 74 74 73 1 1 4.4 2.7 1,859 $877,673 $472 $292 1.31% $4,605

Summer House at Auberge CalAtlantic Homes San Diego 6,000 56 56 54 2 2 3.2 2.0 2,570 $1,094,467 $426 $301 1.30% $5,668

The Cottages at Auberge CalAtlantic Homes San Diego 2,450 76 76 76 0 0 6.2 3.7 1,591 $764,041 $480 $282 1.31% $4,035

Solana at La Floresta Del Webb Brea 4,704 91 0 32 N/Av 59 2.4 4.7 1,682 $784,190 $466 $362 1.25% $4,174

Olvera at La Floresta Del Webb Brea 4,998 96 0 24 N/Av 72 1.8 2.3 2,529 $1,061,990 $420 $303 1.15% $5,377

Four Seasons - Colonnade K. Hovnanian Beaumont 5,000 1,870 1,550 1,490 60 380 10.4 8.3 1,587 $331,583 $209 $226 1.90% $2,017

Four Seasons - Keystone K. Hovnanian Beaumont 5,500 1,870 1,550 1,490 60 380 10.4 8.3 2,111 $343,110 $163 $226 1.90% $2,080

Four Seasons - Medallion K. Hovnanian Beaumont 6,000 1,870 0 1,490 N/Av 380 10.4 8.3 2,469 $424,940 $172 $226 1.90% $2,522

Cortina Pulte Del Webb Temescal 4,000 115 34 26 N/Av N/Av 9.6 9.6 2,076 $507,657 $245 $275 1.70% $2,933

Ardena Pulte Del Webb Temescal 4,500 57 32 27 5 30 14.4 14.4 1,725 $486,657 $282 $275 1.70% $2,823

Prospect Fields KB Home Santee 4,000 75 15 11 4 64 4.7 4.7 2,077 $633,978 $305 $148 1.17% $3,187

River Village KB Home Santee 6,800 82 25 20 5 62 3.6 New 2,539 $709,893 $280 $103 1.17% $3,506

Trevi Hills Pacifica Lakeside - 280 64 25 39 255 0.6 - 3,272 $902,400 $276 $220 1.20% $4,569

6,612 3,476 4,838 176 1,685 6.3 6.3 2,161 $686,352 $323 $249 $0 $3,654

6,612 3,476 4,838 176 1,685 4.7 4.7 2,077 $709,893 $282 $275 $0 $3,506

NEW HOME AVERAGE:

NEW HOME MEDIAN:


Sales pace in the AQ competitive market ranges from 2 to 3 units per month at La Floresta to between 3 and 6 units historically atAuberge (sales pace has slowed recently at Auberge as it is almost sold out). The K. Hovnanian project in Beaumont continues tosell at roughly 3 to 4 units per community, for a total of 10 to 12 units per month overall. The two AQ neighborhoods at Terramor areselling fast at between 10 and 14 units per month, and the two new market rate communities in Santee are also selling wellAbsorption of 5 units per month is anticipated for the cluster product, with a slightly slower sales pace of 3 to 4 units per month for theconventional lots.

Absorption Schedule

Project/Subdivision Type Configuration # of Units Avg Yr/Pace Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5

AQ-Cottages Detached Condos

1,800-2,450 249 50 60 60 60 60 9

AQ-Villas Single Family 4,000 112 37 48 48 16

AQ-Summerhouse Single Family 6,000 124 31 36 36 36 16

485 118 144 144 112 76 9COMMUNITY SUMMARY

HYPOTHETICAL COMMUNITY SELL OUT


This chart compares the base price positioning of the proposed product with other active new home projects in the EastCounty/South County market. The pricing is generally in-line the base prices of the market rate homes at River Village and ProspectFields (slightly better Santee location versus premium for AQ product at the Subject) and below the slow-selling Trevi Hills (elevated,single-level plans, located further out in semi-rural Lakeside area).

Subject Positioning vs. Active New Projects (Base Price)

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

$500,000

$550,000

$600,000

$650,000

$700,000

$750,000

$800,000

$850,000

$900,000

$950,000

$1,000,000

$1,050,000

$1,100,000

1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000

Net

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AQ-Cottages - Detached Condos, CalAtlantic Homes, 5.0 sls per mo

AQ-Villas - 4,000 sq ft, CalAtlantic Homes, 4.0 sls per mo

AQ-Summerhouse - 6,000 sq ft, CalAtlantic Homes, 3.0 sls per mo

The Villas at Auberge - 4,000 sq ft, CalAtlantic Homes, 4.4/2.7 sls per mo

Summer House at Auberge - 6,000 sq ft, CalAtlantic Homes, 3.2/2.0 sls per mo

The Cottages at Auberge - 2,450 sq ft, CalAtlantic Homes, 6.2/3.7 sls per mo

Solana at La Floresta - 4,704 sq ft, Del Webb, 2.4/4.7 sls per mo

Olvera at La Floresta - 4,998 sq ft, Del Webb, 1.8/2.3 sls per mo

Four Seasons - Colonnade - 5,000 sq ft, K. Hovnanian, 10.4/8.3 sls per mo

Four Seasons - Keystone - 5,500 sq ft, K. Hovnanian, 10.4/8.3 sls per mo

Four Seasons - Medallion - 6,000 sq ft, K. Hovnanian, 10.4/8.3 sls per mo

Cortina - 4,000 sq ft, Pulte Del Webb, 9.6/9.6 sls per mo

Ardena - 4,500 sq ft, Pulte Del Webb, 14.4/14.4 sls per mo

Prospect Fields - 4,000 sq ft, KB Home, 4.7/4.7 sls per mo

River Village - 6,800 sq ft, KB Home, 3.6/- sls per mo

Trevi Hills - -, Pacifica, 0.6/- sls per moSource: Meyers Research; Individual Community Sales Offices Absorption = Historical/3 Month


After options/upgrades revenue and lots premiums are included, the two smaller products remain in line with Prospect Fields, whichoffers similar lot sizes to The Villas. The largest Summer House product is at a 10% premium to River Village to reflect the elevatedridgeline location of the Subject, and is priced in line with the smallest lowest priced homes at Trevi Hills in Lakeside(Vineyard/equestrian lots ranging from 1-2 acres, selling slowly at 1 unit every 1 to 2 months).

Subject Positioning vs. Active New Projects (Total Price)

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

$500,000

$550,000

$600,000

$650,000

$700,000

$750,000

$800,000

$850,000

$900,000

$950,000

$1,000,000

$1,050,000

$1,100,000

$1,150,000

1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000

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Trevi Hills - -, Pacifica, 0.6/- sls per mo

Linear (Trevi Hills - -, Pacifica, 0.6/- sls per mo)Source: Meyers Research; Individual Community Sales Offices Absorption = Historical/3 Month


On a monthly payment basis, Rios Canyon will provide sought after age qualified product in an attractive master planned communitywith extensive amenities and a good location in San Diego County. The total tax rate including CFD at Terramor is 1.7%, bringing themonthly payments at Terramor much closer to the Subject’s Cottages product (but Rios Canyon’s location in San Diego County cancommand a premium over Terramor’s location in the Temescal Canyon area of Riverside County).

Subject Positioning vs. Active New Projects (Total Price)

$1,750

$2,000

$2,250

$2,500

$2,750

$3,000

$3,250

$3,500

$3,750

$4,000

$4,250

$4,500

$4,750

$5,000

$5,250

$5,500

$5,750

$6,000

1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000

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Trevi Hills - -, Pacifica, 0.6/- sls per moSource: Meyers Research; Individual Community Sales Offices Absorption = Historical/3 Month


The recommended positioning of Rios Canyon product is at the top of the attached existing AQ home market in San Diego County(but below sales at Auberge at Del Sur-the only new AQ product built recently).

Subject Positioning vs. Local Attached Resales

AVERAGE

REFERENCE AREA DATE RANGE YEAR BUILT LOT SIZE SALES ALL 3 MO. SF NET PRICE $/SF

San Diego County (Attached 55+) Sold L12M Jan. '17 to Aug. '17 1977 att 170 27.1 18.3 1,161 $357,992 $308

San Diego County (Attached 55+) Active/Pending Jan. '00 to Aug. '17 1978 att 66 0.0 0.0 1,146 $365,370 $319

SALES PACE

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

$500,000

$550,000

$600,000

$650,000

$700,000

$750,000

$800,000

$850,000

500 750 1,000 1,250 1,500 1,750 2,000 2,250 2,500 2,750 3,000 3,250

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San Diego County (Attached 55+) Sold L12M

San Diego County (Attached 55+) Active/Pending

Linear (San Diego County (Attached 55+) Sold L12M)

Linear (San Diego County (Attached 55+) Active/Pending)

Source: Meyers Research


The two smaller product lines at Rios Canyon are positioned in line with the detached AQ market when compared with resales ofsimilar home size. It should be noted that there are no detached 55+ listings or sales transactions over 3,000 SF in home size. Thelargest 6,000 SF Summer House product is priced lower than the competitive market, as there is a perceived price ceiling of$800,000 in the El Cajon/Lakeside market (evidenced in the Blossom Valley case study on the following page).

Subject Positioning vs. Local Detached AQ Resales

AVERAGE


San Diego County 55+ Under 3,000 SF (Sold 2017) Jan. '17 to Aug. '17 1978 6,559 131 21.8 9.0 1,620 $548,730 $339

San Diego County 55+ Under 3,000 SF (Act/Pend) Jan. '00 to Aug. '17 1983 5,712 54 1.0 0.0 1,728 $631,181 $365

SALES PACE

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

$500,000

$550,000

$600,000

$650,000

$700,000

$750,000

$800,000

$850,000

$900,000

1,000 1,250 1,500 1,750 2,000 2,250 2,500 2,750 3,000 3,250

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San Diego County 55+ Under 3,000 SF (Sold 2017)

San Diego County 55+ Under 3,000 SF (Act/Pend)

Linear (San Diego County 55+ Under 3,000 SF (Sold 2017))

Linear (San Diego County 55+ Under 3,000 SF (Act/Pend))

Source: Meyers Research


The Rios Canyon cluster homes (Cottages) are priced in line with Serramar (market rate, La Mesa) and Oaks North, a older 55+ golfcourse community with a desirable north Rancho Bernardo address. The 4,000 SF lots (Villas) are priced in line with Leisure VillageOcean Hills in Oceanside (coastal but older), and the 6,000 SF lots are roughly $100,000 above recently built market ratecommunities in East County (Serramar, Sky Ranch) and in line with the highest value Blossom Valley homes built 2000+.

Subject Positioning vs. Select Case Studies

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

$800,000

$900,000

$1,000,000

$1,100,000

$1,200,000

1,250 1,500 1,750 2,000 2,250 2,500 2,750 3,000 3,250 3,500

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Leisure Village Ocean Hills SFD (APSold 2017)

Serramar - La Mesa Sold L12M

Oaks North SFD Sold L12M

Sky Ranch Homes under 3,500 SF - Santee Sold L12M

KHov Four Seasons-Murrieta AQ (SFD, Sold 2017)

Highlands Ranch - Spring Valley Sold L12M

Auberge Del Sur AQ (SFD, Sold L6M)

Blossom Valley Built 2000+ (SFD APSold L12M)

Source: Meyers LLC

AVERAGE


Blossom Valley Built 2000+ (SFD APSold L12M) Mar. '17 to Aug. '17 2006 67,729 7 1.0 0.0 3,059 $722,714 $236

Sky Ranch Homes under 3,500 SF - Santee Sold L12M Sep. '16 to Aug. '17 2011 10,374 5 0.8 0.0 2,867 $740,200 $258

Serramar - La Mesa Sold L12M Sep. '16 to Aug. '17 2006 28,159 7 0.0 0.3 2,786 $710,143 $255

Highlands Ranch - Spring Valley Sold L12M Aug. '16 to Aug. '17 2003 6,296 28 2.6 2.7 2,744 $598,264 $218

Leisure Village Ocean Hills SFD (APSold 2017) Jan. '17 to Aug. '17 1992 5,179 22 4.2 1.0 2,080 $674,659 $324

Oaks North SFD Sold L12M Aug. '16 to Aug. '17 1977 11,895 6 0.8 0.0 1,750 $604,667 $346

Auberge Del Sur AQ (SFD, Sold L6M) Nov. '16 to Aug. '17 2016 4,358 7 0.8 0.7 1,989 $925,800 $465

KHov Four Seasons-Murrieta AQ (SFD, Sold 2017) Jan. '17 to Aug. '17 2002 2,065 20 3.4 2.3 2,065 $424,300 $205

SALES PACE


Ocean Hills Country Club in Oceanside, CA is a 55+ retirement community with a large clubhouse, 18-hole golf course with 1,632homes spread across 350 acres. Ocean Hills Country Club was built in three distinct phases between 1984 and 1999. The initialphase was constructed between 1984 and 1988 and it contains approximately 1,125 duplex homes that are 971 to 1,899 square feet.The second phase, which contains larger single-family homes, was built between 1989 and 1992. The third and final phase wasconstructed from 1997 to 1999 and it offers six single-family floor plan choices.

AQ Case Study: Leisure Village Ocean Hills - Oceanside

Leisure Village Ocean Hills SFD (APSold 2017)

Address Sale Date Sale Value Unit Size PPSF

7049 Dassia Way 6/13/17 $700,000 1,982 $353

4610 Cyrus Way 5/31/17 $710,000 2,808 $253

4953 Lamia Way 5/30/17 $600,000 2,341 $256

4985 Poseidon Way 5/16/17 $740,000 2,340 $316

4113 Pindar Way 5/15/17 $649,000 1,850 $351

4924 Thebes Way 5/4/17 $645,000 1,613 $400

4170 Pindar Way 5/1/17 $634,000 1,850 $343

4130 Andros Way 4/20/17 $657,000 1,592 $413

4988 Lamia Way 4/12/17 $780,000 2,317 $337

4949 Tilos Way 4/10/17 $649,000 1,850 $351


The Oaks North 55 plus golf course community, located in Rancho Bernardo California, was constructed between 1976 and 1987.Oaks North is a delightfully landscaped community of 1,963 homes with a nice mix of sizes and styles. Located in distinctiveneighborhoods, they consist of detached and attached, 2 to 3 bedroom, single-story homes and 1 to 3 bedroom two-levelcondominiums.

AQ Case Study: Oaks North – Rancho Bernardo

Oaks North SFD Sold L12M


12706 Camino Emparrado 3/10/17 $515,000 1,388 $371


12615 Camino Vuelo 10/3/16 $720,500 1,870 $385

17896 Corte Emparrado 10/4/16 $590,000 1,909 $309

12699 Senda Acantilada W 3/1/17 $620,000 1,786 $347



Blossom Valley resales for newer product built after 2000 were analyzed. Most of these single story homes on large lots are on themarket at similar prices to the Subject, but the Subject has a less rural location closer to conveniences with master plan amenities.

Market Rate Case Study: Blossom Valley Built 2000+

Subject

Blossom Valley

Blossom Valley Built 2000+ (SFD APSold L12M)


15249 Creek Hills Road $799,000 3,176 $252

9151 Soldin Ln $559,000 2,378 $235

10027 Silva $585,000 3,150 $186

15786 Olde Highway 80 $897,000 3,400 $264

15431 Sleepy Creek Road W 3/27/17 $825,000 3,409 $242

15724 Olde Hwy 80 $695,000 3,055 $227

9932 Chocolate Summit Dr $699,000 2,845 $246


Encompassing approximately 377 acres on a mesa above Santee, Sky Ranch built by Lennar between 2008 and 2011 includes 371homes. There are 148 townhomes and 223 single and two-story plans ranging from 2,418 to 4,908 square feet on 6,000, 10,000 and20,000 square foot lots.

Market Rate Case Study: Sky Ranch - Santee

Sky Ranch Homes under 3,500 SF - Santee Sold L12M


5583 Dracena St 3/24/17 $729,000 2,418 $301

8700 Ruocco Dr 12/7/16 $745,000 2,880 $259

5012 Sevilla 10/28/16 $720,000 2,884 $250

5132 Sevilla Street 10/28/16 $727,000 2,884 $252

3165 Mirador 9/6/16 $780,000 3,270 $239


Serramar La Mesa is a luxury home community that was developed in 2005-2006, located north of highway 94. The 8 floorplansoffered range from 2,077 square feet to 3,980 square feet with three to five bedrooms.

Market Rate Case Study: Serramar – La Mesa

Serramar - La Mesa Sold L12M


3800 Sacramento Drive 2/1/17 $595,000 2,077 $286

7778 Highwood Ave 9/23/16 $582,500 2,077 $280

7613 Seattle Drive 3/2/17 $730,000 2,728 $268

3805 Sacramento 2/3/17 $740,000 3,127 $237

3910 Sacramento Drive 9/6/16 $740,000 2,728 $271

3825 Sacramento Dr 5/18/17 $748,500 3,384 $221

7630 Eastridge 11/9/16 $835,000 3,384 $247


Highlands Ranch is a community located in Spring Valley in the southeast part of San Diego County. The majority of homes in thiscommunity are Mediterranean or modern style single-family homes. They were built between 1992 and 2007. These homes offer 3 to5 bedrooms and 2 to 4 bathrooms. Residences range in size from 1,848 to 3,170 square feet in living space. Prices of homes for salein Highlands Ranch currently range from $544,000 to $724,900.

Market Rate Case Study: Highlands Ranch - Spring Valley

Highlands Ranch - Spring Valley Sold L12M


2081 California Springs 11/2/16 $541,000 2,143 $252

2042 Springs Of Life Ct. 5/4/17 $525,000 2,318 $226

10156 Fabled Waters Court 2/28/17 $535,000 2,318 $231

10184 California Waters Dr 2/28/17 $551,500 2,143 $257

3139 Pointe Pkwy 5/10/17 $585,000 3,170 $185

2085 Fabled Waters Dr 11/14/16 $560,000 2,455 $228

2973 Pointe Parkway 6/27/17 $589,000 2,733 $216

10429 Artesian Springs 6/9/17 $585,000 2,455 $238

10465 Lake Breeze Dr. 12/2/16 $605,000 3,170 $191

2972 Lake Breeze Ct 1/2/17 $605,000 2,841 $213


For-Sale Market Trends: County/SubmarketRios Canyon Ranch, Lakeside, California


Total Single-Family Home Sales VolumeSingle family home sales in East County have historically accounted for about 15% of the total single family home sales in San DiegoCounty (it is at 16% through July 2017), and have generally followed the sales trends set by the County overall. Sales volumes in theLakeside Subject ZIP code of 92021 have been constant at between 400 and 450 sales (currently +/-448 annually) over the past twoyears.

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San Diego County East County 92021

Source: Collateral Analytics

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Average Single Family Home Sales Price Trends (Total Sales)Average single family home prices in the County and submarket have been trending up over the past 4+ years. Current single familyhome prices in both the East County market and the Subject ZIP code 92021 are averaging around $490,000. Prices in 92021 haveincreased by 8.4% in the past 12 months and 17.6% over the past 24 months.

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Rolling 12-Month Total Single Family Price




Average Single Family Sales Price Trends (Price Per SF)The average per square foot sales price for single-family homes in the Subject ZIP code was $299 per square foot in July 2017, upalmost 11% from the same time a year ago (July 2016). Price per square foot in both San Diego County overall and East County hasincreased by roughly 7.5% over the past 12 months.

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Rolling 12-Month Total Single Family Price per Square Foot




Single Family Sales By Price RangeSan Diego County: The majority of detached salesin San Diego County are taking place in the$400,000 to $800,000 price ranges, with 11.5% oftotal sales priced over $800,000.

East County Submarket: The majority of detachedsales are also taking place in the $300,000 to$700,000 price bands, with just 4.8% of sales pricedover $800,000 in 2017 year-to-date. This illustratesthat the high-end market is more limited in EastCounty than in the County overall.

Subject Zip Code (92021): The majority ofdetached sales in the Subject zip code are alsotaking place in the $400,000 to $450,000 priceband, with the next largest price bands either sideof this from $300,000 to $599,000. Just 5.8% of thetotal sales in 92021 year-to-date 2017 have beenover $800,000.

Home Sales by Price Range: 92021

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 YTD 2017

9 2 18 42 25 46 48 19 6 10 4 26 8 92 122 134 171 206 111 36 29 13 525 75 118 110 133 117 157 220 182 155 100 42139 94 37 39 31 30 49 93 111 153 180 11149 37 15 15 13 7 16 23 28 47 67 6039 23 8 6 20 10 13 16 14 17 34 1711 5 2 2 4 1 4 4 4 6 8 21 2 1 2 3 0 0 5 4 4 0 4

40 23 10 9 4 3 2 9 6 19 8 15

Total 319 269 301 347 367 385 495 500 391 440 414 258% Change -15.7% 11.9% 15.3% 5.8% 4.9% 28.6% 1.0% -21.8% 12.5% -5.9%

< $200k$200 - $299k$300 - $399k$400 - $499k$500 - $599k$600 - $699k$700 - $749k$750 - $799k

$800 or Greater

Home Sales by Price Range: East County

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 YTD 2017

95 67 283 720 425 611 582 370 208 159 109 92110 147 867 1,176 1,065 1,366 1,412 863 466 345 224 103369 594 1,051 1,100 1,253 1,154 1,369 1,648 1,428 1,200 835 354

1,345 907 520 452 418 456 556 983 1,136 1,539 1,710 963785 464 226 225 247 208 255 416 482 745 894 623429 270 150 94 123 115 116 216 299 321 433 271144 68 46 30 27 24 24 61 66 85 100 82105 59 42 28 23 15 17 36 41 58 77 48356 226 87 48 42 39 29 64 92 124 148 129

Total 3,738 2,802 3,272 3,873 3,623 3,988 4,360 4,657 4,218 4,576 4,530 2,665% Change -25.0% 16.8% 18.4% -6.5% 10.1% 9.3% 6.8% -9.4% 8.5% -1.0%

< $200k$200 - $299k$300 - $399k$400 - $499k$500 - $599k$600 - $699k$700 - $749k$750 - $799k

$800 or Greater

Home Sales by Price Range: San Diego County

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 YTD 2017

264 239 1,612 3,743 2,131 2,465 2,362 1,257 697 581 358 192499 620 3,940 5,540 5,063 5,671 5,884 3,445 1,974 1,599 1,016 359

1,623 2,097 5,185 5,748 5,801 5,704 7,139 6,636 5,339 4,749 3,385 1,4965,647 4,273 3,668 3,521 3,586 3,452 4,253 5,732 5,542 6,394 6,452 3,4525,316 3,480 2,183 2,213 2,430 2,022 2,518 3,416 3,585 4,577 5,032 3,0343,578 2,448 1,553 1,499 1,654 1,425 1,894 2,492 2,480 2,904 3,359 2,1442,508 1,770 1,048 902 1,156 974 1,322 1,813 1,648 1,885 2,116 1,3971,720 1,237 711 620 691 658 772 1,145 1,144 1,341 1,527 9441,075 707 395 321 345 356 440 718 750 838 934 651

Total 22,230 16,871 20,295 24,107 22,857 22,727 26,584 26,654 23,159 24,868 24,179 13,669% Change -24.1% 20.3% 18.8% -5.2% -0.6% 17.0% 0.3% -13.1% 7.4% -2.8%

< $200k$200 - $299k$300 - $399k$400 - $499k$500 - $599k$600 - $699k$700 - $799k$800 - $899k

$900 or Greater

August 2017 | CalAtlantic HomesRios Canyon Ranch AQ, Lakeside, CA

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Rios Canyon Ranch AQ, Lakeside, CA

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Rios Canyon Ranch AQ, Lakeside, California