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RIETI BBL Seminar
Handout
Speakers:Mr. Didier HOUSSIN & Mr. HATTORI Takashi
http://www.rieti.go.jp/jp/index.html
October 7, 2014
Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI)
© OECD/IEA 2014© OECD/IEA 2014
Energy, Climate Change and Environment:2014 Insights
Didier HoussinDirector, Sustainable Policy and Technology Directorate, IEA
Takashi HattoriHead, Environment and Climate Change Unit, IEA
7 October 2014
© OECD/IEA 2014
IEA publication series
© OECD/IEA 2014
Goes deeper into selected technical issues
Each year chooses a special thematic focus
Presents regional energy and emissions data
© OECD/IEA 2014
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1200
0
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1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Total prim
ary en
ergy dem
and (EJ)
CO2em
ission
s (Gt C
O2)
ESCII (2011=100)
Historical Projected
ESCII
Energy demand
CO2
Global energy demand, energy CO2, and ESCII (CO2 intensity of global energy supply) in the 6DS scenario
The emissions context
© OECD/IEA 2014©OECD/IEA 2014
Near‐term ImpactsLonger‐term Needs
Getting to the 2DS will rely heavily on energy efficiency and renewables initially, but all technologies play a role.
The emissions challenge
© OECD/IEA 2014
Different energy futures…
The 2DS will require energy conservation and also significant transformation of the global energy mix.
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1 000
6DS 2DS
2011 2050
Total Prim
ary En
ergy Sup
ply (EJ)
Coal
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Otherrenewables
Hydro
Biomass andwaste
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20
40
60
80
100
120
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
ESCII (10
0 = 2010
carbo
n intensity) 6oC
4oC
2oC
The carbon intensity of energy supply will need to decrease rapidly in the future.
A cleaner energy mix
© OECD/IEA 2014
14 months to Paris
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
INDCs by Q1 2015
Negotiating text fixed for translation June
UNFCCC session
COP 21
CCXGWEO Special Climate Report
CCXG
Energy, Climate Change and Environment 2015
IEA
ETP 2015
OCT NOV DEC
COP 20ADP negotiatingsession
Energy, Climate Change and Environment 2014
IPCC synthesis report
COP 20 activities
COP 21activities
© OECD/IEA 2014
Short term action pays off: emissions can be kept on a 2C pathway to 2020
Energy sector decarbonisation actions are not solely driven by emissions goals
Power sector decarbonisation is particularly critical in the period 2020 to 2030
Action on investment and technology is needed now to set the conditions for long‐term energy sector transition
The energy sector needs to prepare for the impacts of climate change
IEA messages for COP 20 in Lima
© OECD/IEA 2014
Policies and actions to “unlock” existing high‐emissions assets
The new landscape of emissions trading systems
Energy metrics: A useful tool for tracking decarbonisation progress
The air pollution‐GHG emissions nexus: implications for the energy sector (this year’s special focus)
Trends in energy and emissions data
Outline of ECCE: 2014 Insights
© OECD/IEA 2014
Chapter 1:Policies and actions to “unlock”
high‐emissions assets
© OECD/IEA 2014
Power generation
Industry
Transport
Other
Room to manoeuvre
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10
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25
30
2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Gt
2 °C trajectory
Lock‐in of existinginfrastructure
2017
Planned fossil fuel infrastructure through 2017 will generate all energy emissions under 2DS through 2035
35
“Lock‐in” of 2 degree emissions
© OECD/IEA 2014
Unlocking action
Policy Options
Direct regulations Supply/demand balances Price
Retirement of coal plant
‐ ownership decision ‐ lifetime limits‐ phase‐out
‐ fleet‐wide emissions performance standard‐ Renewables regulation‐ demand reductions
‐ fuel tax changes‐ carbon pricing‐ preferential renewables tariffs
Change dispatch of existing power plant fleet
‐ “clean‐first” dispatch ‐ priority dispatch of renewables
‐ fleet‐wide emissions performance standard
‐ fuel tax changescarbon pricing‐ removal of fossil fuel subsidies
Efficiency retrofit of coal plant
‐ targets for plant retrofit rates
‐ fleet‐wide emissions performance standard
‐ carbon pricing‐ removal of fossil fuel subsidies
Retrofit of coal plant for CCS
‐ regulated lifetime limits‐ CCS mandates
‐ CCS trading schemes‐ fleet‐wide emissions performance standard
‐ carbon pricing‐ preferential tariffsfor CCS generation
“Un‐locking” high emission assets
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The energy trilemma
Energy
Secure
Affordable Sustainable
© OECD/IEA 2014
Chapter 2:The new landscape of emissions
trading systems
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Current status of ETSs worldwide
© OECD/IEA 2014
Key issues include:
The challenges of implementing an ETS in energy systems of a more regulated nature
The need to understand and address the impact of carbon prices on electricity prices
The importance of incorporating policy flexibility to respond to external influences such as other energy and climate policies
Interaction between ETSs and the energy sector
© OECD/IEA 2014
Some conclusions from recent ETS experience
ETSs may be implemented in highly regulated electricity systems, though additional measures may be needed to ensure propagation of the carbon price signal.
Compensating those groups affected by rising electricity prices (driven by the carbon price) may achieve better outcomes than preventing the price rise.
Improved integration of ETSs and complementary energy policies can ensure each set of policies meets its their respective objectives.
© OECD/IEA 2014
Chapter 3:Metrics for tracking progress in energy
sector decarbonisation
© OECD/IEA 2014
Other criteria can drive energy sector actions
Energy Sector Actions GHG targets
Are critical for achieving
Are not the only (or primary) driver of
Other criteria: e.g.,air quality
road congestion
© OECD/IEA 2014
Typology of metrics
GHG goals
Non‐ GHG goalsSHORT‐TERM
LONG‐TERM
Type I metrics• Total annual GHG emissions• GHG per unit of GDP• GHG per unit of energy supply
Type II metrics• Energy efficiency• Renewable energy • Low‐carbon energy deployment
goals
Type III metrics• Tracking R&D of key
technologies• Emissions intensity of new
electricity investment
© OECD/IEA 2014
Type I and Type III metrics for the electricity sector
To achieve the 2DS, the average emissions intensity of new generation must be lower than that of natural gas before 2020, and only 10% of today’s levels after 2020.
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1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Emiss
ions I
ntensity
(gCO
2/kW
h)
6DS newbuild4DS newbuild2DS newbuild 6DS Average
4DS Average
2DS Average
Historical
© OECD/IEA 2014
Chapter 4:The air pollution‐GHG emissions nexus:
Implications for the energy sector
© OECD/IEA 2014
Concerns about local air quality are rising
© OECD/IEA 2014
Air pollution control and GHG emissions linkages
GHG abatement
Energy
Climate Change
Air Quality
Public healthbenefits
© OECD/IEA 2014
Individual sections examine:
GHG co‐benefits of air quality controls of large stationary sources
China’s air quality constraints: Implications for GHG mitigation in power and key industry sectors
The regulatory approach to climate policy in the United States
The air pollution‐GHG emissions nexus
© OECD/IEA 2014
Air pollutants controlled • SO2 • NOx • Primary PM/black carbon • CO •
Hg (mercury)
Plant‐level compliance options• Retrofit for pollution control • Improve operating efficiency• Fuel switching• Plant closure
Impacts on other pollutants• GHG emissions co‐benefits
Plant‐level compliance options and impacts on GHG emissions
© OECD/IEA 2014
Regional experience
Canada Air quality regulation and multi‐pollutant
objectives Caps on mercury emissions for each province
United States Cross‐State Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR) or “Transport Rule” Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS)
European Union Large Combustion Plant (LCP) Directive Integrated Pollution Prevention and Control (IPPC)
Directive
© OECD/IEA 2014
Japan has some of the cleanest and most efficient coal plants in the world, and most are installed with flue gas technologies for SO2 and NOx.
South Korea is gradually moving towards a more efficient power fleet by upgrading and replacing the existing plants with the new and more efficient ones.
China currently has the fastest installation rate of flue‐gas desulphurisation (FGD) and selective catalytic reduction (SCR) anywhere in the world.
East Asia
© OECD/IEA 2014
Importance of multi‐pollutant approach
Reduction in pollutant emissions
Ozone Sulphate PM2.5 Acid deposition
Mercury CO2
/global warming
SO2
NOx
Primary PM – black C
CO
Hg
CO2
© OECD/IEA 2014
Heavily industrialised growth model => air quality concerns in major urban areas
Short‐term measures: Beijing Olympics (2008) Shanghai World Expo (2010)
Severe air pollution episodes e.g., Beijing in January 2013
China case study
© OECD/IEA 2014
Five‐Year Plans Pollution control mandates Closure of small, inefficient power plants Energy/carbon intensity targets
“War on Pollution” policies PM2.5, PM10
Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan PM, SOx, NOx Coal cap policies Additional forced retirements
China: key national pollution control regulations
© OECD/IEA 2014
Keep coal use below 65% of TPES by 2015
Cap coal consumption at 10 Mt by 2017 (a 13 Mt reduction)
Reduce power capacity by one‐third
Ban construction of new oil refining, steel, cement and thermal power plants
Reduce cement production by 50%
Upgrade 300 polluting firms in 2014
Regional measures: Beijing
© OECD/IEA 2014
China’s air pollution controls can lead to significant GHG reductions, provided that they are structured to achieve these dual objectives
Areas for consideration:
‐ Emissions shifting to unregulated/remote regions
‐ Ambitious syngas developments are significantly more energy‐ and carbon‐intensive
Continued improvement of air quality statistics, accounting, and enforcement measures will be needed
Some strategic considerations
© OECD/IEA 2014
The emerging contours of the US regulatory approach
Electric power
Industry
Transportation
© OECD/IEA 2014
GHG standards for new power plants
Uniform national standards for coal and gas
Coal units would need CCS; NGCC meets the standard already
GHG standards for existing power plants
State‐specific carbon intensity goals
Projected to reduce emissions by 30% in 2030 relative to 2005
Built around the application of four “building blocks”
Will allow use of market mechanisms such as cap‐and trade
Regulating GHGs from electric power plants
© OECD/IEA 2014
Some quick take‐aways from the U.S. GHG regulations
Standards for new power plants are likely to have little effect on US GHG emissions
By 2020, power sector emissions will already have declined 13% since 2005; thus, standards expected to reduce emissions an additional 17% over the following decade
In 2030, natural gas would be the dominant fuel (33%), but coal would still produce a significant share of electricity (31%)
CO2 intensity of US electricity generation projected to fall 19% from its 2012 fleet‐wide rate, i.e. to that of typical NGCC plant
Mobile source rules for new cars and trucks are also important and may yield more reductions by 2030
© OECD/IEA 2014
Non‐CO2 benefits are significant
$93 billion
$55 billion
© OECD/IEA 2014
Chapter 5:Data: Energy and Emissions Data
© OECD/IEA 2014
Selected indicators
Regional coverage
World OECD Americas OECD Asia Oceania OECD Europe Africa Non‐OECD Americas Middle East Non‐OECD Europe and Eurasia Asia (excluding China and India) China India
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
1971 1981 1991 2001 2012
milli
on to
nnes
of C
O 2
Electricity and heat Other energy ind. own use Manuf. ind. and construction Transport Residential Other
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1990 2012
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2012
milli
on to
nnes
of C
O 2
Coal/peat Oil Gas Other
60
80
100
120
140
160
1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2012
1990 = 100
CO2 emissions PopulationGDP/population CO2/TPES (ESCII)CO2/GDP
© OECD/IEA 2014
Policies and actions to “unlock” existing high‐emissions assets
The new landscape of emissions trading systems
Energy metrics: A useful tool for tracking decarbonisation progress
The air pollution‐GHG emissions nexus: Implications for the energy sector (this year’s special focus)
Trends in energy and emissions data
Outline of 2014 edition
© OECD/IEA 2014
Short term action pays off: emissions can be kept on a 2C pathway to 2020
Energy sector decarbonisation actions are not solely driven by emissions goals
Power sector decarbonisation is particularly critical in the period 2020 to 2030
Action is needed now to set the conditions for long‐term energy sector transition
The energy sector needs to prepare for the impacts of climate change
IEA messages for COP 20 in Lima
© OECD/IEA 2014
Thank you
ありがとう
