Riel Miller, 2005

Future of LearningGlasgow, June 25, 2005

Riel Miller

Banal Creativity and Banal Creativity and Banal Creativity and Banal Creativity and Unique Creation Unique Creation Unique Creation Unique Creation ––––

What is Learning in a What is Learning in a What is Learning in a What is Learning in a Learning Intensive Learning Intensive Learning Intensive Learning Intensive

Society?Society?Society?Society?

Riel Miller, 2005

The poverty of historicism is a poverty of imagination. The historicist continuously upbraids those who cannot imagine a change in their little worlds; yet it seems the historicist is himself deficient in imagination for he cannot imagine a change in the conditions of change.

Karl Popper, The Poverty of Historicism 1944

Riel Miller, 2005

Motivating Questions How can we:

– reconcile greater freedom with collective choices?

– embrace greater diversity without inviting fragmentation & chaos?

– foster greater creativity without increasing burn-out & stress?

– inspire responsibility?– motivate change without resorting to

fear?– manage risk without hierarchy?– combine respect for complexity while

still gaining depth of understanding?

Riel Miller, 2005

Strategic questions

• What might make a future learning society different?

• What kinds of economic framework will be important in a learning intensive economy and society?

• What could turn the possible into the probable?

• And is that what we want?

Riel Miller, 2005

Rigorous Imagining-Strategic Scenarios

Possible Futures

ConceivableFutures

ProbableFutures

DesirableFutures

GBU & Bear Futures

Possibility Space Futures

StrategicScenarios

Riel Miller, 2005

Futures Literacy

Level 1 futures literacyTemporal awareness, values,

expectations

Level 2 futures literacyRigorous imagining

Level 3 futures literacyStrategic scenarios

Riel Miller, 2005

Riel Miller, 2005

US Army mobile rapid parts replacement pilot project

Castle Island, Worldwide Guide to Rapid Prototyping

Riel Miller, 2005

Technology possibility space

Ease of use

Simple

DifficultLimited & homogeneous

Unlimited & heterogeneous

Range of uses

Prototype printer

“Solid MP3” printer

“Technology is not destiny”

Riel Miller, 2005

Imagining a learning intensive society

• Incremental radicalism transforms everyday life

• Within one or two generations

• Disrupts most institutions

• Alters culture & values

Riel Miller, 2005

Average Learning Intensity of Daily Life

Average intensity of know-how

Agricultural society Industrial society Learning society

Average intensity of know-what

Average intensity of know-who

Average intensity of know-why (decision

making capacity)

Riel Miller, 2005

Synergistic change: dimensions of a learning intensive society

• Technological dynamism Technological dynamism Technological dynamism Technological dynamism Tt = f (E, R)– E = ease of use – R = range of uses

• Economic dynamism Te = f (U, I)– U = degree of unpredictability– I = freedom of initiative

• Social dynamism Ts = f (A, D)– A = diversity of social affiliation– D = significance/intensity of decision

making• Governance dynamism Tg = f (Y, L)

– Y = extent of transparency and access– L = degree of experimentation and

learning

Riel Miller, 2005

21st Century Transitions: Synergy Conditions and the Policy Challenge

02468

10Ease of use

Range of uses

Task unpredictability &predictability

Autonomy

Heterogeneity & smallerscale of affiliation

Extent of choices

Transparency & access toinformation

Experimentation & reflection

Mass-era Learning society

Technological dynamism

Economic dynamismSocial dynamism

Dynamic governance

Riel Miller, 2005

Economic possibility space

Economic dynamism

“Beyond mass-production and consumption”

• Nature of production & consumption

• Organisational attributes of wealth creation

• Predominant type of economic activity

Riel Miller, 2005

Unpredictable tasks -

creativity

ImposedAuthority

Freedom to initiate

Predictable tasks -

repetition

A creative economy

Mass-era workerand consumer

Empowered team-worker, informed

shopper

Artist

Future consumer/ producer- cyber creator

Fusing of supply & demand

Riel Miller, 2005

Industrial(goods & services,public & private)

Craft/Creative

Household

Agriculture

AgriculturalSociety

IndustrialSociety

LearningSociety

Compositional TransformationShare of total wealth creation by source

Riel Miller, 2005

Adding value to what?• Agriculture

• Manufacturing

• Services

• Mass-customization

• Unique creation – banal creativityLearning as the primary source of value

added – that is a learning society

Riel Miller, 2005

Social possibility space

• Attributes of identity: – sources– structure– dynamics

• Patterns of social status - affiliation

• Ecology of culture -capacity to be free

Social dynamism

Towards greater heterogeneity

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Hetero-geneous/small

Homo-geneous /large

Decisions -what, where, when, with whom, how

Less choice

More choice

Scale of social

affiliation /identity

Identity & choice

Mass-era

Learning society

Beyond the dualism of individual vs collective

Riel Miller, 2005

Governance possibility space

Capacity to make & implement decisions in all areas of activity

Quality of decision making:• Extent to which best information

is used• Transparency of the network• Extent of opportunties to

experiment• Knowing how to learn

Dynamic Governance

Towards greater responsibility

Riel Miller, 2005

Capacity to make & implement decisions

Experimentation & learning

Transparency & access to information

Limited & fragmented

Extensive & unified

Mass-era

Learning society

Limited Continuous

Policy matters

Riel Miller, 2005

Questioning assumptionsIn a learning intensive society:

1. More graduates does not increase wealth or lead to “greater competitive” advantage

2. Product market competition is minimal because most products are unique

3. Nations are not firms, they do not “compete” they reallocate to increase wealth (by learning)

4. The corporate form of organization is marginal5. Reducing classroom schooling helps to avoid

fundamentalism6. Planning causes failure & fails to reduce risk7. Adherence to basic common values becomes

more stringent8. Internalization not socialization9. Experimentalism not administration10.The wealthiest societies have the highest

average age

Riel Miller, 2005

A post-industrial knowledge society has learning at the core of production & consumption. Learning becomes the predominant source of value-added. New rules, institutions & governance capacities not only make this more intensively networked society functional but also reap the dividends of embracing complexity, spontaneity & experimentation.

Riel Miller, 2005

Thank youRiel Miller

XperidoX Futures Consultingrielm@yahoo.com

Alice came to a fork in the road."Which road do I take?" she asked."Where do you want to go?" responded the Cheshire cat."I don't know," Alice answered."Then," said the cat, "it doesn't matter."

Lewis Carroll, Alice in Wonderland

Riel Miller, 2005

“Hubris of the now”

• Slow vs fast • Incremental vs radical• Voluntary vs involuntary• Preservationism vs dynamism