Mapping of stress on native tree species across western U.S.A. & Canada: interpretation of

climatically-induced changes using a physiologically-based approach

Richard Waring1

Nicholas Coops2

Thomas Hilker3

Wendy Peterman4

1 Oregon State University 2 University of British Columbia

3Goddard Space Flight Center4Conservation Biology Institute

I R S S

Recent Mortality in the Southwest

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Pinyon pine mortalitypeaked in 2003-2004 across the Southwest

Peterman et al. 2012. Manuscript revised for Ecohydrology

From U.S. Forest Service aerial photographic surveys

1:24,000 scale soil classification indicates tree mortality in 2003-2004 was concentrated on soils with < 100 mm of water storage capacity

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Peterman et al. 2012. Manuscript revised for Ecohydrology

NRCS Soil Geographic Database

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Can predict how tree mortality varies spatially following a drought with knowledge of differences in soil water storage capacity

Peterman et al. 2012. Manuscript revised for Ecohydrology

Process-based modeling with 3-PG confirmed that unusually intensedrought would stress pinyon pine on shallow soils prior to 2003-2004

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Peterman et al. 2012. Manuscript revised for Ecohydrology

3PG Predicted LAI MODIS LAI

Differences used to adjust soil fertility and soil water holding capacity

Approach to mapping soil properties

Default at 50% max. Fert.

Default at 200 mm ASWC

1 2 3 40

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

HWSD Organic Carbon Class

Pred

icted

Soi

l Fer

tility

Process-model derived Fertility Ranking at 1 km2

Coops, Hilker & Waring .2011. in preparation RS & E

1:5,000,000 scale

Solved simultaneously,or set ASWC =170 mm

150 125 100 75 50 1560

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

HWSD Available Soil Water Class (mm)

Pred

icted

Soi

l Wat

er H

oldi

ng C

apac

ity

Process-model derived Available Soil Water Holding

Capacity at 1 km2

Coops, Hilker & Waring 2011. in preparation, RS & E

1:5,000,000 scale

Solved simultaneously orset FR =0.6 if MODIS LAI is < 3.0 m2 m-2

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Conclusions

Need soil classification at 1 km2 or better :

a) To predict where tree mortality will occur following droughtb) To predict variation in productivity under similar climatesc) To predict the effects of rising CO2 on growth

Approach to mapping soil properties :

a) Compare difference in LAI predicted by 3-PG model using default soil values with LAI from MODIS satellite imagery

b) Run model to match MODIS LAI for soil fertility firstc) Run model based on est. of soil fertility to obtain map of available soil water storage capacity

Contact Information

Waring, Richard <richard.waring@oregonstate.edu>http://www.fsl.orst.edu/~waringCoops, Nicholas <nicholas.coops@ubc.ca>Project website:http://www.pnwspecieschange.info/