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Rice Universityrsickles/paper/bls.pdf · MHO Fodvvl fdwlrq Qxpehuv= G79/ F56/ F76/ O

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Page 1: Rice Universityrsickles/paper/bls.pdf · MHO Fodvvl fdwlrq Qxpehuv= G79/ F56/ F76/ O

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Page 2: Rice Universityrsickles/paper/bls.pdf · MHO Fodvvl fdwlrq Qxpehuv= G79/ F56/ F76/ O

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Page 3: Rice Universityrsickles/paper/bls.pdf · MHO Fodvvl fdwlrq Qxpehuv= G79/ F56/ F76/ O

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Page 4: Rice Universityrsickles/paper/bls.pdf · MHO Fodvvl fdwlrq Qxpehuv= G79/ F56/ F76/ O

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Page 5: Rice Universityrsickles/paper/bls.pdf · MHO Fodvvl fdwlrq Qxpehuv= G79/ F56/ F76/ O

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Hvwlpdwh ri d Vwuxfwxudo Khgrqlf Sulfh Prgho ri wkh Krxvlqj Pdunhw= Dq Dssol0

fdwlrq ri Urvhq*v Wkhru| ri Lpsolflw Pdunhwv/% Hfrqrphwulfd/ 7:/ 44840:6

Zruog Edqn +4<:8,/ %Krxvlqj/% Vhfwru Srolf| Sdshu1

74

Page 42: Rice Universityrsickles/paper/bls.pdf · MHO Fodvvl fdwlrq Qxpehuv= G79/ F56/ F76/ O

Figures, and TablesFigures

Average Number of Ways (round trip = 2, one way = 1)

1.4

1.45

1.5

1.55

1.6

1.65

1.7

1.75

791

793

801

803

811

813

821

823

831

833

841

843

851

853

861

863

871

873

881

883

891

893

901

903

911

913

921

923

date (yyq)

Figure 5.1

Average Over One-Way Trips: Number of Airlines vs. Number of Interline Segments

0.00000

0.20000

0.40000

0.60000

0.80000

1.00000

1.20000

1.40000

791

793

801

803

811

813

821

823

831

833

841

843

851

853

861

863

871

873

881

883

891

893

901

903

911

913

921

923

date (yyq)

nalins ninter

Figure 5.2

Page 43: Rice Universityrsickles/paper/bls.pdf · MHO Fodvvl fdwlrq Qxpehuv= G79/ F56/ F76/ O

Average Over Round Trips: Number of Airlines vs. Number of Interline Segments

0.00000

0.20000

0.40000

0.60000

0.80000

1.00000

1.20000

1.40000

1.60000

791

793

801

803

811

813

821

823

831

833

841

843

851

853

861

863

871

873

881

883

891

893

901

903

911

913

921

923

date (yyq)

nalins ninter

Figure 5.3

Average Number of Segments for One-Way and Round Trip tickets

0.00000

0.50000

1.00000

1.50000

2.00000

2.50000

3.00000

3.50000

791

793

801

803

811

813

821

823

831

833

841

843

851

853

861

863

871

873

881

883

891

893

901

903

911

913

921

923

date (yyq)

One-Way Two-Way

Figure 5.4

Page 44: Rice Universityrsickles/paper/bls.pdf · MHO Fodvvl fdwlrq Qxpehuv= G79/ F56/ F76/ O

Circuity for One-Way and Round Trip tickets

1.02000

1.03000

1.04000

1.05000

1.06000

1.07000

1.08000

791

793

801

803

811

813

821

823

831

833

841

843

851

853

861

863

871

873

881

883

891

893

901

903

911

913

921

923

date (yyq)

One-Way Two-Way

Figure 5.5

Figure 5.6

Page 45: Rice Universityrsickles/paper/bls.pdf · MHO Fodvvl fdwlrq Qxpehuv= G79/ F56/ F76/ O

Average Food Expenses per Passenger Enplaned: Adjusted and Unadjusted

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

791

793

801

803

811

813

821

823

831

833

841

843

851

853

861

863

871

873

881

883

891

893

901

903

911

913

921

923

date (yyq)

Unadjusted Adjusted

Figure 5.7

Fraction of Round Trip Itineraries That Are First Class

0.00000

0.01000

0.02000

0.03000

0.04000

0.05000

0.06000

0.07000

0.08000

791

793

801

803

811

813

821

823

831

833

841

843

851

853

861

863

871

873

881

883

891

893

901

903

911

913

921

923

date (yyq)

Figure 5.8

Page 46: Rice Universityrsickles/paper/bls.pdf · MHO Fodvvl fdwlrq Qxpehuv= G79/ F56/ F76/ O

Fraction of Itineraries That Are Discounted Coach Fares: Round Trip and One-Way

0.00000

0.10000

0.20000

0.30000

0.40000

0.50000

0.60000

0.70000

0.80000

0.90000

1.00000

791

793

801

803

811

813

821

823

831

833

841

843

851

853

861

863

871

873

881

883

891

893

901

903

911

913

921

923

date (yyq)

Round Trip One Way

Figure 5.9

Fraction of Zero Coupon Itineraries: Round Trip and One-Way

0.00000

0.02000

0.04000

0.06000

0.08000

0.10000

0.12000

0.14000

791

793

801

803

811

813

821

823

831

833

841

843

851

853

861

863

871

873

881

883

891

893

901

903

911

913

921

923

date (yyq)

Round Trip One Way

Figure 5.10

Page 47: Rice Universityrsickles/paper/bls.pdf · MHO Fodvvl fdwlrq Qxpehuv= G79/ F56/ F76/ O

CPI vs. DB1A arithmetic and geometric replications (base=832)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

791

793

801

803

811

813

821

823

831

833

841

843

851

853

861

863

871

873

881

883

891

893

901

903

911

913

921

923

year-quarter (yyq)

Ind

ex le

vel

DB1A Geom. DB1A Arithm. BLS-CPI

Figure 6.1

Unadjusted One Way and Round Trip Price Indices

0.90

1.10

1.30

1.50

1.70

1.90

2.10

2.30

2.50

79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93

Time

Pri

ce In

dex

P1Basic

P2Basic

Figure 6.2

Page 48: Rice Universityrsickles/paper/bls.pdf · MHO Fodvvl fdwlrq Qxpehuv= G79/ F56/ F76/ O

Comparison of Adjusted and Basic One Way Price Indices (base=791)

0.90

1.10

1.30

1.50

1.70

1.90

2.10

2.30

2.50

79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93

Time

Pri

ce In

dex

P1Basic

P1Adjust

Figure 6.3

Comparison of Adjusted and Unadjusted Round Trip Price Indices (base=791)

0.90

1.10

1.30

1.50

1.70

1.90

2.10

2.30

2.50

79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93

P2Basic

P2Adjust

Figure 6.4

Page 49: Rice Universityrsickles/paper/bls.pdf · MHO Fodvvl fdwlrq Qxpehuv= G79/ F56/ F76/ O

BLS CPI vs. Hedonic CPI (base=832)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

791

793

801

803

811

813

821

823

831

833

841

843

851

853

861

863

871

873

881

883

891

893

901

903

911

913

921

923

YYQ

Ind

ex L

evel

BLS-CPI Hedonic Index

Figure 6.5

Hedonic Index vs. DB1A replication Indices (Base=832)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

791

793

801

803

811

813

821

823

831

833

841

843

851

853

861

863

871

873

881

883

891

893

901

903

911

913

921

923

YYQ

Ind

ex

Hedonic Index DB1A Geom. DB1A Arithm.

Figure 6.6

Page 50: Rice Universityrsickles/paper/bls.pdf · MHO Fodvvl fdwlrq Qxpehuv= G79/ F56/ F76/ O

TablesTable 6.1

A Comparison of Different IndicesBLS Air Index DB1A

ArithmeticMean

DB1AGeometric

Mean

Bench MarkHedonic Model

Hedonic Index Hedonic Indexw/ Ticket

RestrictionsData SourceFixed RouteFixed Class

Fix Wgt. AreaFix Wgt. USGeo Mean

Arith. MeanQuality Adj.

Zero Coup Adj.

SABREYesYesYesYesNoYesNoNo

DB1AYesNoNoYesNoYesNoNo

DB1AYesNoNoYesYesNoNoNo

DB1ANoNoNoNoNANANoYes

DB1ANoNoNoNoNANAYesYes

DB1ANoNoNoNoNANAYesYes

Avg. Yearly Inf 9.80% 10.19% 8.84% 4.42% 4.69% 6.27%

Page 51: Rice Universityrsickles/paper/bls.pdf · MHO Fodvvl fdwlrq Qxpehuv= G79/ F56/ F76/ O

One WayModel

Round TripModel

One WayModel

Round TripModel

Coeff Estimate Std Error Estimate Std Error Coeff Estimate Std Error Estimate Std Error

1979-11979-21979-31979-4

1980-11980-21980-31980-4

1981-11981-21981-31981-4

1982-11982-21982-31982-4

1983-11983-21983-31983-4

1984-11984-21984-31984-4

1985-11985-21985-31985-4

1986-11986-21986-31986-4

.000000 .000000 .131647 .000717 .183385 .000703 .271259 .000688

.341144 .000699 .368445 .000677 .347191 .000677 .323089 .000712

.406969 .000703 .391012 .000679 .366208 .000673 .341781 .000683

.341514 .000682 .361650 .000667 .389378 .000659 .376822 .000682

.375201 .000679 .438298 .000657 .450713 .000649 .448037 .000655

.480502 .000659 .491375 .000645 .473786 .000640 .498520 .000646

.500758 .000651 .508989 .000638 .505568 .000636 .423235 .000635

.429316 .000637 .386636 .000641 .454321 .000628 .493267 .000653

.000000 .000000

.084386 .000627

.120222 .000634

.238698 .000630

.326022 .000638

.330174 .000636

.303250 .000648

.318564 .000639

.473544 .000666

.421443 .000647

.423067 .000669

.418745 .000644

.387478 .000651

.409308 .000636

.454254 .000640

.409182 .000632

.345801 .000629

.440545 .000624

.509589 .000643

.530297 .000628

.557338 .000630

.530916 .000608

.510774 .000618

.501107 .000608

.487270 .000608

.413476 .000595

.438910 .000604

.425652 .000601

.365051 .000593

.326974 .000594

.332452 .000605

.386131 .000597

1987-11987-21987-31987-4

1988-11988-21988-31988-4

1989-11989-21989-31989-4

1990-11990-21990-31990-4

1991-11991-21991-31991-4

1992-11992-21992-31992-4

R2FNNi

.531658 .000669

.557406 .000660

.642275 .000653

.702656 .000667

.750258 .001217

.684097 .000659

.776370 .001141

.686545 .000669

.875029 .001078

.666478 .000658

.566361 .000648

.596645 .000661

.647923 .000664

.676124 .000655

.651849 .000654

.700685 .000672

.619265 .000674

.611315 .000662

.660826 .000655

.670174 .000669

.687399 .000668

.646160 .000658

.641092 .000652

.671827 .000661

.68112 113,511. 64,024,141. 79,248.

.336607 .000587 .327748 .000576 .397713 .000582 .455133 .000584

.655742 .001002 .502266 .000571 .686379 .001008 .516745 .000574

.907902 .000929 .567267 .000573 .494588 .000570 .510470 .000562

.600511 .000567 .598749 .000561 .540321 .000563 .581347 .000569

.654331 .000577 .570308 .000563 .585231 .000570 .636296 .000570

.757830 .000582 .543558 .000565 .427392 .000559 .634672 .000572

.44185 120,919. 95,279,537. 79,139.

Table 6.2: Estimates for Bench Mark Model

Page 52: Rice Universityrsickles/paper/bls.pdf · MHO Fodvvl fdwlrq Qxpehuv= G79/ F56/ F76/ O

One WayModel

Round TripModel

One WayModel

Round TripModel

Coeff Estimate Std Error Estimate Std Error Coeff Estimate Std Error Estimate Std Error

ln Foodln Depln Inter

First Cl2 Segs3 Segs4 Segs

1979-11979-21979-31979-4

1980-11980-21980-31980-4

1981-11981-21981-31981-4

1982-11982-21982-31982-4

1983-11983-21983-31983-4

1984-11984-21984-31984-4

1985-11985-21985-31985-4

.057350 .000062-.077457 .000210 .319661 .000547

.009840 .000249 .004774 .000221

.000000 .000000 .119343 .000708 .177663 .000695 .267474 .000680

.333729 .000691 .355464 .000670 .332617 .000670 .288215 .000705

.375977 .000695 .365019 .000672 .330924 .000667 .305416 .000677

.309437 .000675 .336192 .000661 .361963 .000653 .351123 .000675

.348629 .000673 .411501 .000651 .426179 .000643 .417013 .000649

.453261 .000654 .466200 .000640 .448623 .000635 .480478 .000640

.482905 .000645 .494214 .000633 .523423 .000631 .442321 .000629

.070076 .000122-.021254 .000186 .314721 .000194

.622013 .000346

.000617 .000217-.109097 .000208

.000000 .000000 .072007 .000607 .111818 .000614 .230940 .000610

.317276 .000619 .321492 .000617 .298420 .000629 .311909 .000621

.457073 .000647 .423952 .000628 .420699 .000651 .413868 .000627

.382742 .000633 .422916 .000618 .462897 .000623 .426553 .000615

.363538 .000612 .462283 .000607 .531412 .000625 .546810 .000611

.569750 .000613 .549884 .000593 .531523 .000602 .525912 .000592

.511242 .000592 .446156 .000579 .471529 .000589 .460142 .000586

1986-11986-21986-31986-4

1987-11987-21987-31987-4

1988-11988-21988-31988-4

1989-11989-21989-31989-4

1990-11990-21990-31990-4

1991-11991-21991-31991-4

1992-11992-21992-31992-4

R2FNNi

.445976 .000632 .413581 .000636 .477949 .000624 .519626 .000648

.553903 .000664 .582817 .000656 .662000 .000649 .724473 .000662

.740659 .001205 .721165 .000654 .768125 .001130 .729768 .000665

.862361 .001068 .701687 .000653 .606047 .000644 .634399 .000656

.678261 .000662 .715318 .000655 .685130 .000654 .738359 .000672

.651171 .000673 .643303 .000663 .696390 .000657 .714363 .000670

.732743 .000670 .692213 .000660 .695754 .000656 .722949 .000664

.68254 133,347 64,024,141. 79,248.

.401204 .000579

.366409 .000580

.373821 .000591

.430882 .000582

.383329 .000573

.383257 .000564

.447529 .000571

.503507 .000573

.681558 .000975 .549343 .000561 .707544 .000982 .562544 .000566

.908509 .000906 .604131 .000565 .536835 .000562 .545739 .000555

.629540 .000562 .631447 .000558 .570096 .000562 .611860 .000566

.682229 .000574 .603464 .000562 .615449 .000571 .666161 .000569

.778981 .000582 .573328 .000565 .462976 .000559 .667230 .000571

.48334 222,150. 95,279,542. 79,139.

Table 6.3: Estimates for Model with Quality Variables

Page 53: Rice Universityrsickles/paper/bls.pdf · MHO Fodvvl fdwlrq Qxpehuv= G79/ F56/ F76/ O

One WayModel

Round TripModel

One WayModel

Round TripModel

Coeff Estimate Std Error Estimate Std Error Coeff Estimate Std Error Estimate Std Error

ln Foodln Depln Inter

First ClFCNewF RestrtY Restrt2 Segs3 Segs4 Segs

1979-11979-21979-31979-4

1980-11980-21980-31980-4

1981-11981-21981-31981-4

1982-11982-21982-31982-4

1983-11983-21983-31983-4

1984-11984-21984-31984-4

1985-11985-21985-31985-4

.035667 .000064-.069821 .000205 .311014 .000536

.450880 .000510-.746571 .000601-.163372 .000917-.143883 .000135 .004774 .000221

.000000 .000000 .130343 .000693 .194426 .000680 .276723 .000665

.344044 .000676 .383116 .000656 .360788 .000656 .321839 .000690

.406595 .000681 .403843 .000659 .377461 .000654 .351862 .000664

.359685 .000662 .390038 .000648 .416864 .000640 .406352 .000662

.404044 .000660 .472558 .000638 .488926 .000631 .483680 .000637

.516296 .000641 .568221 .000630 .557910 .000625 .588324 .000631

.585641 .000635 .597059 .000623 .620830 .000622 .551832 .000622

.073075 .000119-.025848 .000181 .282482 .000190

.511057 .000467 .079969 .000920-.336050 .000863-.294731 .000134

-.002569 .000211-.108666 .000202

.000000 .000000 .085149 .000592 .127450 .000598 .240001 .000595

.310714 .0006003 .324051 .000601 .311709 .000613 .351941 .000605

.493380 .000631 .474508 .000612 .475235 .000635 .471488 .000611

.441142 .000618 .492552 .000603 .540316 .000608 .523693 .000601

.463098 .000598 .563095 .000593 .623636 .000611 .657317 .000598

.667603 .000599 .677280 .000581 .679142 .000591 .680385 .000581

.658956 .000581 .596044 .000568 .621574 .000578 .611416 .000576

1986-11986-21986-31986-4

1987-11987-21987-31987-4

1988-11988-21988-31988-4

1989-11989-21989-31989-4

1990-11990-21990-31990-4

1991-11991-21991-31991-4

1992-11992-21992-31992-4

R2FNNi

.550154 .000623 .523665 .000628 .578357 .000616 .621167 .000639

.656667 .000654 .685043 .000647 .769153 .000640 .821586 .000652

.763661 .001179 .810117 .000644 .798768 .001106 .809356 .000654

.876850 .001046 .783943 .000653 .684838 .000643 .711496 .000645

.862975 .000657 .901681 .000651 .877281 .000651 .930724 .000668

.850231 .000670 .844376 .000659 .901937 .000654 .922502 .000668

.943008 .000667 .906864 .000659 .910479 .000654 .941617 .000663

.70285 177,380 64,024,141. 79,248.

.562686 .000569

.536447 .000571

.540619 .000581

.602813 .000573

.545567 .000564

.550922 .000555

.619987 .000562

.675525 .000564

.671467 .000950 .722428 .000552 .697766 .000957 .736161 .000557

.878056 .000883 .766493 .000555 .709309 .000553 .720662 .000547

.800734 .000554 .807870 .000551 .749520 .000554 .788713 .000559

.863407 .000566 .798129 .000555 .813627 .000564 .858237 .000563

.962937 .000575 .775220 .000560 .667321 .000554 .869538 .000565

.49699 301,484. 95,279,542. 79,139.

Table 6.4: Estimates for Model With Ticket Restrictions