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Bobby Coats, Ph.D. Professor – Economics
Department of Agricultural Economics and AgribusinessDivision of Agriculture
Cooperative Extension ServiceUniversity of Arkansas System
501.671.2195 – [email protected]
Rice Outlook Slide ShowU.S. and WorldAugust 10, 2017
1
World RiceUSDA Supply and Demand Estimates
Slide ShowAugust 10, 2017
3
4
5
World Rice Area Harvested 1988/89-2017/1814
6.6
147.8
147.0
147.6
146.4
145.3 147.3
148.3 150.2 151.7 153.3 15
5.9
152.8
151.6
147.7 149.5 151.4 15
4.2
154.3
155.0
158.5
155.8 15
8.2 160.1
158.7 16
1.4
160.6
158.9
160.0 161.8
161.8
161.9
161.8
135
140
145
150
155
160
16519
88/89
1990
/91
1992
/93
1994
/95
1996
/97
1998
/99
2000
/01
2002
/03
2004
/05
2006
/07
2008
/09
2010
/11
2012
/13
2014
/15
2016
/17
17‐Jun
17‐Aug
17‐O
ct
17‐Dec
17‐Feb
17‐Apr
Million of Hectares
Source: USDA
• 2017/18 world rice acreage at 161.8 million hectares slightly below last month’s 161.9, the highest on record
6
World Rice Yield (Rough) 1988/89-2017/183.3 3.
53.5
3.5 3.6
3.6 3.7
3.7 3.8
3.8
3.8 3.9
3.9
3.9
3.8 3.9
3.9 4.0 4.1 4.2
4.2
4.2
4.2 4.
44.4
4.4
4.4
4.4 4.5
4.4
4.4 4.5
4.4
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
519
88/89
1990
/91
1992
/93
1994
/95
1996
/97
1998
/99
2000
/01
2002
/03
2004
/05
2006
/07
2008
/09
2010
/11
2012
/13
2014
/15
2016
/17
17‐Jun
17‐Aug
17‐O
ct
17‐Dec
17‐Feb
17‐Apr
Metric Tons
Source: USDA
• World rice yield at 4.4 metric tons per hectare, below 2016/17 period’s 4.5, but consistent with previous 6 periods
7
World Rice Rough Production 1988/89-2017/1849
0.8 510.3
519.4
522.9
524.0
526.1
539.9
547.3 563.8
575.3
587.0 608.8
594.0
594.3
563.0 585.4
596.4 62
2.3
625.0 643.6 66
9.6
655.2 671.5 69
6.8
704.6
713.3
713.3
703.4 721.7
717.8
717.4
721.4
719.9
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
75019
88/89
1990
/91
1992
/93
1994
/95
1996
/97
1998
/99
2000
/01
2002
/03
2004
/05
2006
/07
2008
/09
2010
/11
2012
/13
2014
/15
2016
/17
17‐Jun
17‐Aug
17‐O
ct
17‐Dec
17‐Feb
17‐Apr
Million of Metric Tons
Source: USDA 8
• World rice rough production at 719.9 million metric tons is 1.8 million metric tons below 2016/17 and the 2nd highest on record
World Rice Milled Production 1988/89-2017/1833
2.1
345.3
351.4
353.3
353.9
354.7
364.1
368.8
380.4
387.4
394.9 409.3
399.2
399.5
378.2 392.5
400.8 417.9
420.1
433.6 449.9
440.0
450.0 467.4
472.5
478.3
478.4
471.9
483.9
481.3
481.0
483.7
482.6
200
250
300
350
400
450
50019
88/89
1990
/91
1992
/93
1994
/95
1996
/97
1998
/99
2000
/01
2002
/03
2004
/05
2006
/07
2008
/09
2010
/11
2012
/13
2014
/15
2016
/17
17‐Jun
17‐Aug
17‐O
ct
17‐Dec
17‐Feb
17‐Apr
Million of Metric Tons
Source: USDA 9
• World rice milled production is the 2nd highest on record at 482.6 million metric tons
World Rice Trade Year Exports Calendar 1988/89-2017/1814
.011
.712
.3 14.4
14.9 16
.620
.819
.718
.927
.624
.822
.8 24.3
27.9
27.6
27.3 28
.929
.031
.829
.529
.4 31.8
36.5
40.0
39.5
44.1
42.6
40.443
.342
.242
.3 43.4
43.9
7.5
12.5
17.5
22.5
27.5
32.5
37.5
42.5
47.519
88/89
1990
/91
1992
/93
1994
/95
1996
/97
1998
/99
2000
/01
2002
/03
2004
/05
2006
/07
2008
/09
2010
/11
2012
/13
2014
/15
2016
/17
17‐Jun
17‐Aug
17‐O
ct
17‐Dec
17‐Feb
17‐Apr
Million of Metric Tons
Source: USDA 10
• World trade at 43.9 million metric tons is the 3nd highest on record, which in-part reflects global uncertainties
World Rice Total Use 1988/89-2017/1832
5.7
336.3
345.3
353.2
357.4
358.9
365.5
368.3
378.2
380.0
388.6 400.2
395.6 41
3.2
408.1
413.8
408.5
415.4
421.2
428.1
437.7
438.1
445.2 460.8
465.2 478.2
477.4
471.1
480.3
480.1
479.7
479.6
479.1
250
300
350
400
450
50019
88/89
1990
/91
1992
/93
1994
/95
1996
/97
1998
/99
2000
/01
2002
/03
2004
/05
2006
/07
2008
/09
2010
/11
2012
/13
2014
/15
2016
/17
17‐Jun
17‐Aug
17‐O
ct
17‐Dec
17‐Feb
17‐Apr
Million of Metric Tons
Source: USDA 11
World rice total use at 479.1 million metric tons is the 2nd highest on record only exceeded by the previous marketing periods 480.3 million tons
World Rice ProductionCountry or
Region2016/17estimate
2017/18forecast
Change from July 12
Change from 2016/17
Million Tons
August 10, 2017
World 483.9 482.6 -1.07 -1.3United States 7.1 5.9 -0.15 -1.2
Foreign 476.8 476.7 -0.92 -0.1Argentina 0.9 0.9 -- 0.0Brazil 8.4 8.0 -- -0.4Egypt 4.8 4.0 -- -0.8Bangladesh 34.6 34.2 -0.52 -0.4Burma 12.4 12.3 -- -0.1Cambodia 4.9 5.0 -- 0.1China 144.9 145.0 -- 0.2India 108.0 108.0 -- --Indonesia 37.2 37.0 -- -0.1Japan 7.8 7.6 -- -0.2Sri Lanka 2.3 2.9 -0.40 0.6Pakistan 6.8 6.9 -- 0.1Philippines 11.5 11.2 -- -0.3Thailand 19.2 20.4 -- 1.2Vietnam 28.0 28.5 -- 0.5
-- No change
World Rice Supply and Use2016/17estimate
2017/18forecast
Change from July 12
Change from 2016/17
Million Tons, milled
August 10, 2017
Beginning stocks 115.8 119.4 0.90 3.6Production 483.9 482.6 -1.07 -1.3Total Supply 599.7 602.0 -0.18 2.3Total use 480.3 479.1 -0.57 -1.3
Trade 43.1 43.7 0.50 0.6Ending Stocks 119.4 122.9 0.40 3.5
U.S. Long-Grain RiceUSDA Supply and Demand Estimates
Slide ShowAugust 10, 2017
17
The long grain rice season-average farm price range is $11.50 - $12.50 per cwt or $5.18 - $5.63 per bus
18
U.S. Long Grain Rice Planted Acres 1972/73 – 2017/18
916,
800
1,06
3,50
0 1,38
4,50
01,
460,
300
1,53
6,00
01,
473,
000
1,94
2,00
01,
955,
000 2,21
5,00
0 2,50
1,00
02,
199,
000
1,55
9,00
02,
113,
000
1,95
7,00
01,
822,
000
1,71
4,00
02,
257,
000
2,03
1,00
02,
129,
000
2,11
3,00
0 2,40
8,00
02,
102,
000 2,
410,
000
2,33
5,00
01,
983,
000 2,
327,
000 2,58
9,00
02,
731,
000
2,20
6,00
02,
713,
000
2,53
7,00
02,
332,
000 2,58
7,00
02,
751,
000
2,20
0,00
02,
063,
000 2,
365,
000
2,29
0,00
02,
841,
000
1,79
4,00
01,
994,
000
1,78
1,00
02,
211,
000
1,87
9,00
02,
442,
000
1,90
9,00
0
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
Source: USDA 20
• 2017 long grain rice planted acres estimated at 1,909,000 acres 22% below 2016
• 5 year average 2,044,400 acres• 10 year average 2,150,600 acres• 15 year average 2,229,267 acres
U.S. Long Grain Rice Beginning Stocks 1982/83 – 2017/1817
.625
.816
.437
.749
.327
.419
.115
.413
.211
.5 13.0
21.6
15.1
14.4
10.1
14.1
14.5
14.1 15
.611
.626
.815
.710
.322
.732
.728
.519
.1 20.0 23
.035
.624
.321
.916
.226
.522
.728
.727
.731
.531
.3
0
10
20
30
40
50
6082 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
May
, 17
June
, 17
July
, 17
Aug
, 17
Sept
, 17
Oct
, 17
Nov
, 17
Dec
, 17
Jan,
17
Feb,
17
Mar
, 17
Apr
, 17
Source: USDA
Million hundredweight
22
• 2017/18 long grain rice beginning stocks at 31.3 million cwt.• Previous 5 year average was 22 million cwt. • Previous 10 year average was 24 million cwt.
U.S. Long Grain Rice Production 1982/83 – 2017/1893
.464
.396
.0 100.
496
.889
.011
9.4
109.
210
7.8
109.
112
8.0
103.
113
3.4
121.
711
3.6 12
4.5
139.
3 151.
912
8.8
167.
615
7.2
149.
017
0.4 177.
514
7.1
143.
2 153.
315
2.7
183.
311
6.4
144.
313
1.9
162.
713
3.4
166.
514
2.0
142.
013
6.4
132.
4
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
20082 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
May
, 17
June
, 17
July
, 17
Aug
, 17
Sept
, 17
Oct
, 17
Nov
, 17
Dec
, 17
Jan,
17
Feb,
17
Mar
, 17
Apr
, 17
Source: USDA
Million hundredweight
23
• 2017/18 long grain rice production is estimated at 132.4 million cwt• 20.5% below 2016/17• 5 year average 148 million cwt• 10 year average 149 million cwt
U.S. Long Grain Rice Total Supply 1982/83 – 2017/1811
1.5
90.7
113.
814
0.1 148.
511
9.1
141.
912
8.6
125.
312
5.3
146.
413
0.6
155.
414
2.5
132.
9 146.
5 162.
2 173.
515
3.1
188.
319
4.1
174.
5 191.
321
2.5
194.
018
9.4
188.
218
9.3
222.
216
8.9
187.
317
4.2
200.
618
0.7
209.
319
1.7
190.
718
8.9
184.
7
0
50
100
150
200
25082 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
May
, 17
June
, 17
July
, 17
Aug
, 17
Sept
, 17
Oct
, 17
Nov
, 17
Dec
, 17
Jan,
17
Feb,
17
Mar
, 17
Apr
, 17
Source: USDA
Million hundredweight
25
• 2017/18 long grain rice total supply is estimated at 184.7 million cwt. • 12-percent below 2016/17 • 5 year average 190 million cwt.• 10 year average 191 million cwt.
U.S. Long Grain Rice Domestic and Residual 1982/83 – 2017/1838
.729
.5 34.1
48.8 51
.249
.555
.554
.552
.2 56.8
55.0 58
.4 59.6
66.9
61.3
59.7
76.7
87.6
76.2
87.7
78.9 83
.4 84.7 87
.9 93.4
91.3
100.
191
.910
8.6
78.0
89.6
96.1
106.
282
.110
0.0
95.0
95.0
92.0
90.0
0
20
40
60
80
100
12082 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
May
, 17
June
, 17
July
, 17
Aug
, 17
Sept
, 17
Oct
, 17
Nov
, 17
Dec
, 17
Jan,
17
Feb,
17
Mar
, 17
Apr
, 17
2017/18 long grain rice domestic and residual use is estimated at 90 million cwt, 9th largest on record5 year average 95 million cwt. 10 year average 94.5 million cwt.
Source: USDA
Million hundredweight
26
U.S. Long Grain Rice Total Exports 1982/83 – 2017/1847
.044
.842
.042
.069
.950
.571
.060
.861
.655
.669
.857
.081
.465
.557
.472
.371
.470
.365
.373
.899
.580
.7 83.8
92.0
72.0
79.1
68.0
74.3 78
.066
.775
.861
.968
.075
.9 78.0
76.0
77.0
77.0
77.0
0
20
40
60
80
100
12082 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
May
, 17
June
, 17
July
, 17
Aug
, 17
Sept
, 17
Oct
, 17
Nov
, 17
Dec
, 17
Jan,
17
Feb,
17
Mar
, 17
Apr
, 17
Source: USDA
Million hundredweight
27
• 2017/18 long grain rice total exports is estimated at 77 million cwt, • 1 million cwt. below last year• 5 year average 72• 10 year average 73
U.S. Long Grain Rice Total Use 1982/83 – 2017/1885
.774
.376
.190
.812
1.1
100.
012
6.5
115.
311
3.8
112.
4 124.
811
5.4
141.
013
2.4
118.
7 132.
014
8.2 15
7.9
141.
516
1.6
178.
416
4.2
168.
5 179.
816
5.4
170.
416
8.1
166.
218
6.5
144.
716
5.4
158.
017
4.2
158.
017
8.0
171.
017
2.0
169.
016
7.0
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
20082 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
May
, 17
June
, 17
July
, 17
Aug
, 17
Sept
, 17
Oct
, 17
Nov
, 17
Dec
, 17
Jan,
17
Feb,
17
Mar
, 17
Apr
, 17
Source: USDA
Million hundredweight
28
• 2017/18 long grain rice total use is estimated at 167 million cwt.• 11 million cwt below 2016/17 • 5 year average 166.7 million cwt. • 10 year average 167 million cwt.
U.S. Long Grain Rice Ending Stocks 1982/83 – 2017/1825
.816
.437
.749
.327
.419
.115
.413
.211
.5 13.0
21.6
15.1
14.4
10.1
14.1
14.5
14.1 15
.611
.626
.815
.710
.322
.732
.728
.519
.0 20.1
23.0
35.6
24.3
21.9
16.2
26.5
22.7
31.3
20.7
18.7 19
.917
.7
0
10
20
30
40
50
6082 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
May
, 17
June
, 17
July
, 17
Aug
, 17
Sept
, 17
Oct
, 17
Nov
, 17
Dec
, 17
Jan,
17
Feb,
17
Mar
, 17
Apr
, 17
Source: USDA
Million hundredweight
29
• 2017/18 long grain rice ending stocks are estimated at 17.7 million cwt.• 43.5-percent below 2016/17, 2nd lowest in the previous 13 marketing
periods• 5 year average 23 million cwt. • 10 year average 24 million cwt.
U.S. Medium & Short-Grain RiceUSDA Supply and Demand Estimates
Slide ShowAugust 10, 2017
30
31
U.S. Medium & Short Grain Rice Beginning Stocks 1982/83 – 2017/1830
.244
.728
.825
.7 26.2
21.1
10.8
9.0
11.6
11.7 12
.915
.810
.015
.814
.312
.112
.36.
810
.415
.610
.79.
312
.4 13.8
9.4 10
.09.
18.
012
.010
.114
.712
.2 13.3
20.2 20
.916
.615
.611
.811
.8
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
5082 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
May
, 17
June
, 17
July
, 17
Aug
, 17
Sept
, 17
Oct
, 17
Nov
, 17
Dec
, 17
Jan,
17
Feb,
17
Mar
, 17
Apr
, 17
Source: USDA
Million hundredweight
33
U.S. Medium & Short Grain Rice Production 1982/83 – 2017/18
60.2
35.4
42.8
34.5 36
.640
.640
.545
.3 48.3 50
.2 51.6 53
.064
.352
.158
.058
.545
.154
.262
.147
.753
.750
.961
.945
.7 47.5
55.2
50.5
67.1
59.8
68.6
55.7 58
.1 59.6
59.7
57.7 59
.059
.054
.954
.0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
8082 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
May
, 17
June
, 17
July
, 17
Aug
, 17
Sept
, 17
Oct
, 17
Nov
, 17
Dec
, 17
Jan,
17
Feb,
17
Mar
, 17
Apr
, 17
Source: USDA
Million hundredweight
34
U.S. Medium & Short Grain Rice Total Supply 1982/83 – 2017/1890
.680
.273
.561
.761
.8 63.5
50.8
55.6
60.5 62
.4 64.9
71.2 75
.169
.7 73.3
71.9
59.6 63
.374
.867
.1 68.9
66.2
76.8
64.7
63.4
70.8
61.9
78.6
73.1
81.7
72.5
72.9 76
.182
.281
.878
.677
.669
.969
.0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
10082 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
May
, 17
June
, 17
July
, 17
Aug
, 17
Sept
, 17
Oct
, 17
Nov
, 17
Dec
, 17
Jan,
17
Feb,
17
Mar
, 17
Apr
, 17
Source: USDA
Million hundredweight
36
U.S. Medium & Short Grain Rice Domestic and Residual 1982/83 – 2017/18 24
.2 26.0 27
.718
.826
.431
.026
.9 27.7
39.0
38.6 39
.6 41.8
41.9
37.7
40.3
44.2
37.4
34.3
41.3
35.5
34.5
31.5
38.0
32.4 34
.6 36.1
27.5
32.5
28.4
32.8
29.4
28.2
28.3 30
.3 32.0
30.0
30.0
28.0
27.5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
5082 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
May
, 17
June
, 17
July
, 17
Aug
, 17
Sept
, 17
Oct
, 17
Nov
, 17
Dec
, 17
Jan,
17
Feb,
17
Mar
, 17
Apr
, 17
Source: USDA
Million hundredweight
37
U.S. Medium & Short Grain Rice Total Exports 1982/83 – 2017/18 21
.925
.420
.116
.714
.321
.714
.9 16.3
9.8 10
.99.
519
.417
.517
.720
.915
.415
.418
.617
.920
.925
.122
.325
.022
.918
.825
.7 26.4
34.1 34.6
34.2
30.8 31.4
27.7
31.0
38.0
34.0 35
.032
.032
.0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
4082 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
May
, 17
June
, 17
July
, 17
Aug
, 17
Sept
, 17
Oct
, 17
Nov
, 17
Dec
, 17
Jan,
17
Feb,
17
Mar
, 17
Apr
, 17
Source: USDA
Million hundredweight
38
U.S. Medium & Short Grain Rice Total Use 1982/83 – 2017/1846
.151
.447
.835
.540
.752
.741
.8 44.0
48.8
49.5
49.0
61.3
59.4
55.4
61.2
59.6
52.8
52.9
59.2
56.4 59
.653
.963
.055
.253
.461
.853
.966
.663
.067
.060
.359
.656
.061
.370
.064
.0 65.0
60.0
59.5
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
8082 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
May
, 17
June
, 17
July
, 17
Aug
, 17
Sept
, 17
Oct
, 17
Nov
, 17
Dec
, 17
Jan,
17
Feb,
17
Mar
, 17
Apr
, 17
Source: USDA
Million hundredweight
39
U.S. Medium & Short Grain Rice Ending Stocks 1982/83 – 2017/1844
.728
.825
.726
.221
.110
.89.
011
.611
.7 12.9
15.8
10.0
15.8
14.3
12.1
12.3
6.8
10.4
15.6
10.7
9.3
12.4 13
.89.
4 10.0
9.1
8.0
12.0
10.1
14.7
12.2 13
.320
.2 20.9
11.8
14.6
12.6
9.9
9.5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
5082 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
May
, 17
June
, 17
July
, 17
Aug
, 17
Sept
, 17
Oct
, 17
Nov
, 17
Dec
, 17
Jan,
17
Feb,
17
Mar
, 17
Apr
, 17
Source: USDA
Million hundredweight
40
U.S. All RiceSupply and Demand Estimates
Slide ShowAugust 10, 2017
41
42
U.S. All Rice Planted Acres 1950/51 – 2017/181,
653,
200
2,03
1,40
02,
041,
000
2,20
4,20
02,
605,
000
1,84
6,40
01,
602,
500
1,37
0,20
01,
439,
000
1,60
7,30
01,
614,
000
1,61
8,00
01,
788,
700
1,78
5,00
01,
796,
800
1,80
3,80
01,
980,
300
1,98
2,20
02,
366,
600
2,14
0,60
01,
825,
800
1,82
6,00
01,
824,
000 2,
181,
300
2,55
0,00
0 2,83
3,00
02,
489,
000
2,26
1,00
02,
993,
000
2,89
0,00
03,
380,
000
3,82
7,00
03,
295,
000
2,19
0,00
02,
830,
000
2,51
2,00
02,
381,
000
2,35
6,00
02,
933,
000
2,73
1,00
02,
897,
000
2,88
4,00
0 3,17
6,00
02,
920,
000
3,35
3,00
03,
121,
000
2,82
4,00
0 3,12
5,00
03,
285,
000
3,53
1,00
03,
060,
000 3,33
4,00
03,
240,
000
3,02
2,00
0 3,34
7,00
03,
384,
000
2,83
8,00
02,
761,
000
2,99
5,00
03,
135,
000
3,63
6,00
02,
689,
000
2,70
0,00
02,
490,
000
2,95
4,00
02,
625,
000
3,15
0,00
02,
560,
000
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,00050 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 17
Million acres
43
U.S. All Rice Yield 1950/51 – 2017/182,
371
2,30
92,
413
2,44
72,
517
3,06
13,
152
3,20
43,
164
3,38
23,
423
3,41
1 3,72
63,
968
4,09
84,
255
4,32
24,
537
4,42
54,
318 4,61
74,
718
4,70
04,
275
4,44
04,
558
4,66
34,
412
4,48
44,
599
4,41
3 4,81
94,
710
4,59
8 4,95
4 5,41
35,
651
5,55
55,
514
5,74
95,
529
5,73
15,
736
5,51
0 5,96
45,
621 6,
120
5,89
75,
663
5,86
6 6,28
16,
496
6,57
86,
670 6,98
86,
636 6,89
8 7,21
96,
846
7,08
56,
725 7,
067 7,
463
7,69
47,
576
7,47
27,
237 7,51
3
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,00050 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 17
Pounds per acre
44
U.S. All Rice Beginning Stocks 1970/71 – 2017/18 16
.4 18.6
11.4
5.1 7.
87.
136
.9 40.5
27.4 31
.625
.716
.549
.071
.546
.964
.777
.351
.431
.426
.726
.324
.6 27.4
39.4
25.8
31.3
25.0 27
.227
.922
.127
.5 28.5
39.0
26.8
23.7
37.7
43.0
39.3
24.5
30.4
36.5
48.5
41.1
36.4
31.8
48.5
46.5 48
.146
.146
.145
.9
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
9070 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
May
, 17
June
, 17
July
, 17
Aug
, 17
Sept
, 17
Oct
, 17
Nov
, 17
Dec
, 17
Jan,
17
Feb,
17
Mar
, 17
Apr
, 17
Million hundredweight
45
U.S. All Rice Production 1970/71 – 2017/1883
.885
.885
.4 92.8
112.
4 128.
411
5.6
99.2
133.
213
1.9 14
6.2
182.
715
3.6
99.7
138.
813
4.9
133.
412
9.6
159.
915
4.5
156.
115
9.4 17
9.7
156.
119
7.8
173.
917
1.6 18
3.0
184.
420
6.0
190.
921
5.3
211.
019
9.9
232.
422
3.2
194.
619
8.4
203.
7 219.
924
3.1
184.
9 199.
919
0.0
222.
219
3.1
224.
120
1.0
201.
019
1.3
186.
5
0
50
100
150
200
250
30070 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
May
, 17
June
, 17
July
, 17
Aug
, 17
Sept
, 17
Oct
, 17
Nov
, 17
Dec
, 17
Jan,
17
Feb,
17
Mar
, 17
Apr
, 17
Million hundredweight
46
U.S. All Rice Imports 1970/71 – 2017/181.
41.
10.
50.
20.
00.
00.
0 0.1
0.1
0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.
6 2.2 2.6 3.0 3.
8 4.4 4.8 5.
3 6.2 6.
9 8.1
7.7
10.5
9.3
10.6
10.1 10
.913
.214
.815
.013
.217
.120
.623
.919
.219
.018
.3 19.4
21.1
23.1
24.6
24.1
23.3 24
.024
.024
.224
.2
0
5
10
15
20
25
3070 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
May
, 17
June
, 17
July
, 17
Aug
, 17
Sept
, 17
Oct
, 17
Nov
, 17
Dec
, 17
Jan,
17
Feb,
17
Mar
, 17
Apr
, 17
Million hundredweight
47
U.S. All Rice Total Supply 1970/71 – 2017/1810
1.6
105.
597
.398
.112
0.2 13
5.5 15
2.5
139.
8 160.
716
3.6
172.
119
9.6
203.
317
2.1 18
7.3 20
1.8 213.
318
4.0 195.
118
5.6
187.
218
9.3 21
3.2
202.
523
1.6
212.
920
7.2 219.
522
3.0 23
8.2
229.
225
6.9
264.
821
4.9
269.
227
8.1
258.
226
1.6
252.
4 269.
329
7.9
252.
826
2.1
249.
527
8.7
265.
829
3.9
273.
127
1.1
261.
625
6.6
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
35070 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
May
, 17
June
, 17
July
, 17
Aug
, 17
Sept
, 17
Oct
, 17
Nov
, 17
Dec
, 17
Jan,
17
Feb,
17
Mar
, 17
Apr
, 17
Million hundredweight
48
U.S. All Rice Total Domestic and Residual Use 1970/71 – 2017/1836
.537
.238
.2 40.6 43
.642
.1 46.4
39.6
53.4 55.3
64.2 68
.662
.954
.9 60.5 65
.877
.6 80.4 82.4
82.2
91.2 95
.394
.6 100.
310
1.5
104.
610
1.6
103.
9 114.
0 121.
911
7.5 12
3.3
113.
411
5.0 12
2.7
120.
2 128.
112
7.4
127.
612
4.4
136.
911
0.8 11
9.0 124.
4 134.
411
2.4
132.
012
5.0
125.
012
0.0
117.
5
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
16070 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
May
, 17
June
, 17
July
, 17
Aug
, 17
Sept
, 17
Oct
, 17
Nov
, 17
Dec
, 17
Jan,
17
Feb,
17
Mar
, 17
Apr
, 17
Million hundredweight
49
U.S. All Rice Total Exports 1970/71 – 2017/1846
.556
.954
.049
.769
.556
.565
.672
.8 75.7
82.6
91.4
82.0
68.9 70.3
62.1
58.7
84.2
72.2
85.9
77.1
71.4
66.5
79.2
76.4
98.8
83.2
78.3
87.7
86.8 88.8
83.2
94.7
124.
610
3.1 10
8.8 11
4.9
90.8
104.
794
.410
8.4
112.
610
0.9 10
6.6
93.3 95
.710
7.0 11
6.0
110.
011
2.0
109.
010
9.0
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
14070 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
May
, 17
June
, 17
July
, 17
Aug
, 17
Sept
, 17
Oct
, 17
Nov
, 17
Dec
, 17
Jan,
17
Feb,
17
Mar
, 17
Apr
, 17
Million hundredweight
50
U.S. All Rice Total Use 1970/71 – 2017/1883
.0 94.1
92.2
90.3
113.
198
.6 112.
011
2.4 12
9.1
137.
9 155.
615
0.6
131.
812
5.2
122.
612
4.5
161.
815
2.6 16
8.3
159.
316
2.6
161.
9 173.
817
6.7
200.
318
7.8
179.
9 191.
620
0.9
210.
720
0.7 21
8.0 23
8.0
218.
0 231.
523
5.1
218.
8 232.
222
2.0 232.
8 249.
521
1.7 22
5.7
217.
7 230.
221
9.3
248.
023
5.0
237.
022
9.0
226.
5
0
50
100
150
200
250
30070 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
May
, 17
June
, 17
July
, 17
Aug
, 17
Sept
, 17
Oct
, 17
Nov
, 17
Dec
, 17
Jan,
17
Feb,
17
Mar
, 17
Apr
, 17
Million hundredweight
51
U.S. All Rice Ending Stocks 1970/71 – 2017/1818
.611
.45.
1 7.8
7.1
36.9 40
.527
.4 31.6
25.7
16.5
49.0
71.5
46.9
64.7
77.3
51.4
31.4
26.7
26.3
24.6 27
.439
.425
.831
.325
.0 27.2
27.9
22.1
27.5 28.5
39.0
26.8
23.7
37.7
43.0
39.3
29.4 30.4
36.5
48.5
41.1
36.4
31.8
48.5
46.5
45.9
38.1
34.1
32.6
30.1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
9070 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
May
, 17
June
, 17
July
, 17
Aug
, 17
Sept
, 17
Oct
, 17
Nov
, 17
Dec
, 17
Jan,
17
Feb,
17
Mar
, 17
Apr
, 17
Million hundredweight
52
12:00 P.M.
United States Department of AgricultureNational Agricultural Statistics Service
August Crop ProductionExecutive Summary
Lance Honig, Chief Crops Branch
August 10, 2017
USDA-NASS8-10-17
Contents
Field Crops Fruit and Nuts Specialty Crops
Corn Peaches Dry BeansSoybeans Apples Tobacco
Cotton Pears SugarbeetsWheat Grapes SugarcaneOats Cranberries Hops
Barley Summer PotatoesSorghum
Alfalfa & Other HayRice
Peanuts
USDA-NASS8-10-17
Survey Overview
Ag Yield Objective Yield
Survey Type Farmer Reported Field Measurement
Crops Included Field Crops Corn, Soybeans, Cotton,and Winter Wheat
Sample Size 21,654 4,544
Collection Period July 29 – Aug 4 July 25 – Aug 1
August 2017 Crop Production
USDA-NASS8-10-17
Crop Unit August 2017
% Change From
Previous Estimate
% Change From
Previous Season
CornPlanted Mil Ac 90.9 NC -3.3Harvested Mil Ac 83.5 NC -3.7Yield Bu/Ac 169.5 NA -2.9Production Bil Bu 14.2 NA -6.6
9.219.76 9.43 9.92 9.50
8.97
10.1
11.811.1
10.5
13.0
12.0
13.112.4 12.3
10.8
13.814.2 13.6
15.1
14.2
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Billion BushelsCorn for Grain Production
United States
USDA-NASS8-10-17
180.0
170.0169.5
160.0
150.0
140.0
130.0
120.0
110.0
100.0
90.0
80.01987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
Yield Linear (Yield)
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Bushels per AcreCorn for Grain Yield
United States
USDA-NASS8-10-17
USDA-NASS8-10-17
2004
20052006
20082007
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
20142015
2016
Aug‐17
0.260
0.270
0.300
0.290
0.280
0.310
0.320
0.330
0.340
0.350
0.360
Lbs/Ear 0.370
25,000 25,500 26,000 26,500 27,000 27,500Ears Per Acre
28,000 28,500 29,000 29,500
Corn Objective Yield RegionEars Per Acre vs. Implied Ear Weight
Implied Ear Weight = (Published Yield * 56) / Ears USDA-NASS8-10-17
USDA-NASS8-10-17
August 2017 Crop Production
Crop Unit August 2017
% Change From
Previous Estimate
% Change From
Previous Season
SoybeansPlanted Mil Ac 89.5 NC +7.3Harvested Mil Ac 88.7 NC +7.2Yield Bu/Ac 49.4 NA -5.2Production Bil Bu 4.38 NA +1.7
2.69 2.74 2.65 2.762.89
2.762.45
3.12 3.073.20
2.68
2.97
3.363.33
3.10 3.04
3.36
3.93 3.93
4.314.38
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Billion BushelsSoybean Production
United States
USDA-NASS8-10-17
49.4
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
55.0
1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005
Yield Linear (Yield)
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Bushels per AcreSoybean Yield
United States
USDA-NASS8-10-17
USDA-NASS8-10-17
USDA-NASS8-10-17
August 2017 Crop Production
Crop Unit August 2017
% Change From
Previous Estimate
% Change From
Previous Season
All CottonPlanted Mil Ac 12.1 NC +19.7Harvested Mil Ac 11.1 NA +16.3Yield Lb/Ac 892 NA +2.9Production Mil Bls 20.5 NA +19.7
12.1
11.1
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Million AcresAll Cotton Acres
United States
Planted HarvestedUSDA-NASS
8-10-17
18.8
13.9
17.0 17.2
20.3
17.218.3
23.3 23.9
21.6
19.2
12.812.2
18.1
15.6
17.3
12.9
16.3
12.9
17.2
20.5
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Million BalesAll Cotton Production
United States
USDA-NASS8-10-17
892900
850
800
750
700
650
600
550
500
950
1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005
Yield Linear (Yield)
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Pounds perAcreAll Cotton Yield
United States
USDA-NASS8-10-17
USDA-NASS8-10-17
August 2017 Crop Production
USDA-NASS8-10-17
Crop Unit August 2017
% Change From
Previous Estimate
% Change From
Previous Season
Winter WheatHarvested Mil Ac 25.8 NC -14.8Yield Bu/Ac 50.0 +0.6 -9.6Production Bil Bu 1.29 +0.6 -23.0
Other Spring WheatHarvested Mil Ac 10.5 NC -7.1Yield Bu/Ac 38.3 -5.0 -18.9Production Mil Bu 402 -5.0 -24.8
Durum WheatHarvested Mil Ac 1.86 NC -21.4Yield Bu/Ac 27.2 -12.0 -38.2Production Mil Bu 50.5 -12.1 -51.5
All WheatProduction Bil Bu 1.74 -1.2 -24.7
USDA-NASS8-10-17
2004
20052006 2011
20072015
20082009
2010
2012
20132014
2016Jun‐17
Jul‐17 Aug‐170.7000.6900.6800.6700.6600.6500.6400.6300.6200.6100.6000.5900.5800.5700.5600.5500.5400.530
38 39 40 41 42 43 44Heads Per Square Foot
45 46 47 48 49
Grams/Head
Wheat Objective Yield RegionHeads Per Square Foot vs. Implied Head Weight
Implied Head Weight = Published Yield / (Heads*1.6006)USDA-NASS
8-10-17
USDA-NASS8-10-17
August 2017 Crop Production
USDA-NASS8-10-17
Crop Unit August 2017
% Change From
Previous Estimate
% Change From
Previous Season
Oats Mil Bu 53.7 +0.1 -17.1Barley Mil Bu 140 -1.9 -29.6Sorghum Mil Bu 369 NA -23.1Alfalfa Hay Mil Tons 56.2 NA -3.6Other Hay Mil Tons 76.4 NA -0.1Rice Mil Cwt 186 NA -16.8Peanuts Bil Lbs 7.43 NA +30.7
August 2017 Crop Production
USDA-NASS8-10-17
Crop Unit August 2017
% Change From
Previous Estimate
% Change From
Previous Season
All Tobacco Mil Lbs 695 NA +10.5Dry Beans Mil Cwt 34.2 NA +19.2Sugarbeets Mil Tons 36.3 NA -1.5Sugarcane Mil Tons 31.8 NA -0.9Summer Potatoes Mil Cwt 20.2 NA +3.3
August 2017 Crop Production
USDA-NASS8-10-17
Crop Unit August 2017
% Change From
Previous Estimate
% Change From
Previous Season
Peaches Thou Tons 735 NA -7.6Apples Bil Lbs 10.4 NA -7.4Pears Thou Tons 707 NA -4.3Grapes Mil Tons 7.51 NA -2.1Hops Mil Lbs 97.6 NA +12.0Cranberries Mil Bbls 9.05 NA -6.0
USDA-NASS8-10-17
Upcoming Reports
Release Date Report Title
August 25 Cattle on Feed Rice Stocks
August 30 Agricultural Prices
August 31 Citrus Fruits
September 1 CAIR: CottonCAIR: Fats & Oils
CAIR: Grain CrushingsSeptember 12 Cotton Ginnings
Crop Production
USDA-NASS8-10-17
United States Department of AgricultureNational Agricultural Statistics Service
All Reports Available Atwww.nass.usda.gov
For Questions202-720-2127800-727-9540
Report of August 10, 2017
Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee ForecastsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board, Chair
Economic Research Service Foreign Agricultural Service
Farm Service Agency Agricultural Marketing Service
World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates
WASDE: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates
Secretary's WASDE Briefing Slides
Foreign Ag Service: World Agricultural Production
Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin
Links to the latestWASDE related publicationsOffice of the Chief Economist World
Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB)
US Drought Monitor ( in cooperation with NOAA and NDMC)
World Wheat ProductionCountry or Region
2016/17estimate
2017/18forecast
Change fromJuly 12
Change from2016/17
Million Tons
August 10, 2017
World 755.0 743.2 5.4 -11.8United States 62.9 47.3 -0.6 -15.5
Foreign 692.1 695.9 5.9 3.7Argentina 17.5 17.5 -- 0.0Canada 31.7 26.5 -1.9 -5.2Australia 35.1 23.5 -- -11.6European Union 145.7 149.6 -0.4 3.9Turkey 17.3 19.5 -- 2.3Russia 72.5 77.5 5.5 5.0Ukraine 26.8 26.5 2.5 -0.3Kazakhstan 15.0 14.0 1.0 -1.0China 128.9 130.0 -- 1.2India 87.0 96.0 -- 9.0
Central
Southern
N. Caucasus
Volga
August 10, 2017
150%
N. Caucasus
150%
Southern
100%
175%
CentralVolga
200%
Russia
UkraineAn active weather pattern brought beneficial spring rain to Russia’s winter wheat areas.
125%
Winter Wheat
August 10, 2017
Central
Southern
N. Caucasus
Volga
Russia
Ukraine
Conversely, dry weather during July across southwestern Russia favored winter wheat
drydown and harvesting.
Winter Wheat
August 10, 2017
Urals
VolgaSiberia
Russia
Kazakhstan
August 10, 2017
WMO‐CPC
100%
80%
150%
Urals
VolgaSiberia
Russia
Kazakhstan
The 60‐day rainfall map indicates most springwheat areas received near‐ to above‐normal rainfall since early June, ensuring favorable moisture supplies as crops progressed
through reproduction.
150%
100%
70%
100%
100%
Spring Wheat
August 10, 2017
Urals
Siberia
Volga
Russia
Kazakhstan
The latest VHI depicts good to excellent conditions for Flowering (north) to Filling (south/east) spring wheat.
Spring Wheat
August 10, 2017
0.0
0.5
301.0
20
1.5
2.0
702.5
60
3.0
3.5
0
10
40
50
80
9019
87
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
Yield(T/H
a)
Area
(MHa) and
Prod
uctio
n(M
MT)
Russia Wheat: Estimated Area, Yield, and ProductionSource: USDA PSD Online
Harvested area Output Yield
Estimated production is increased from 72.0 to 77.5 mmt based on harvest reports from the winter‐wheat zone and
higher estimated yield in the spring‐wheat zone.
August 10, 2017
0.0
0.2
0.4
1.215
1.0
0.810
0.6
1.4
1.6
1.8
0
5
20
2520
07
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Yield(T/H
a)
Area
(MHa) and
Prod
uctio
n(M
MT)
Kazakhstan Wheat: Estimated Area, Yield, and ProductionSource: USDA PSD Online
Harvested area Output Yield
Forecast wheat production is increased from13.0 to 14.0 mmt based on NDVI‐based yieldforecasts. Estimated area is down 7% fromlast year and yield is virtually unchanged.
August 10, 2017
0.5
0.0
1.05
2.0
1.5
3.0
2.5
253.5
4.5
4.0
0
10
15
20
3020
07
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Yield(T/H
a)
Area
(MHa)
andProd
uctio
n(M
MT)
Ukraine Wheat: Estimated Area, Yield, and ProductionSource: USDA PSD Online
Harvested area Output Yield
Estimated production is increasedfrom 24.0 to 26.5 mmt based on
official harvest data.
August 10, 2017
Canadian Prairies - Durum production
Alberta Saskatchewan Manitoba
Durum production (% of *total)
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Durum wheat crop calendar for most of CanadaPLANT
HARVESTHEAD
1 - 2 %< 1 % > 5 %2 - 3 % 3 - 5 %* 2002-2006 Average
* SOURCE: Stats CanadaAgricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board August 10, 2017
Canadian Prairies - Spring Wheat production
Alberta Saskatchewan Manitoba
Spring Wheat production (% of *total)
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Spring wheat crop calendar for most of CanadaPLANT
HARVESTHEAD
1 - 2 %< 1 % > 5 %2 - 3 % 3 - 5 %* 2002-2006 Average
* SOURCE: Stats CanadaAgricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board August 10, 2017
Alberta Saskatchewan Manitoba
Canola production (% of *total)
< 1 % 1 - 2 % 2 - 3 % 3 - 5 % > 5 %
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Canola crop calendar for most of CanadaPLANT
HARVESTFLOWER
Canadian Prairies - Canola production
1 - 2 %< 1 % > 5 %2 - 3 % 3 - 5 %* 2002-2006 Average
* SOURCE: Stats CanadaAgricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board August 10, 2017
Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board August 10, 2017
Wheat and Rapeseed fields in Southern Manitoba
August 10, 2017
Agricultural Weather Assessments
August 10, 2017World Agricultural Outlook Board
Flooded soybean field outside Ottawa,Ontario
Based on conversations with farmers and industryexperts in Canada, crops are 2‐4 weeks behindschedule. August 10, 2017
World Wheat Supply and Use2016/17estimate
2017/18forecast
Change from July 12
Change from 2016/17
Million Tons
August 10, 2017
Beginning stocks 242.9 258.6 0.5 15.7Production 755.0 743.2 5.4 -11.8Total Supply 997.9 1,001.8 5.9 3.9
Feed use 146.9 140.6 1.3 -6.2Total use 739.3 737.1 1.8 -2.2
Trade 182.3 179.9 1.5 -2.3Ending Stocks 258.6 264.7 4.1 6.1
U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand2016/17estimate
2017/18forecast
Change from July 12
Change from 2016/17
Average market price 3.89 4.40/5.20 -- 0.91-- No change
Dollars per bushel
August 10, 2017
Planted area (million acres) 50.2 45.7 -- -4.5
Harvested area (million acres) 43.9 38.1 -- -5.8Yield (bushels per acre) 52.6 45.6 -0.5 -7.0
Million bushelsBeginning stocks 976 1,184 -- 209Production 2,310 1,739 -21 -570Imports 118 150 10 32Total supply 3,403 3,074 -11 -330
Food use 949 950 -5 1Seed 61 66 -- 5Feed and residual 154 150 -- -4Domestic use 1,164 1,166 -5 2
Exports 1,055 975 -- -80Total use 2,219 2,141 -5 -78
Ending stocks 1,184 933 -6 -252Percent
Stocks to use ratio 53.4 43.6 -0.2 -9.8
World Rice ProductionCountry or
Region2016/17estimate
2017/18forecast
Change from July 12
Change from 2016/17
Million Tons
August 10, 2017
World 483.9 482.6 -1.07 -1.3United States 7.1 5.9 -0.15 -1.2
Foreign 476.8 476.7 -0.92 -0.1Argentina 0.9 0.9 -- 0.0Brazil 8.4 8.0 -- -0.4Egypt 4.8 4.0 -- -0.8Bangladesh 34.6 34.2 -0.52 -0.4Burma 12.4 12.3 -- -0.1Cambodia 4.9 5.0 -- 0.1China 144.9 145.0 -- 0.2India 108.0 108.0 -- --Indonesia 37.2 37.0 -- -0.1Japan 7.8 7.6 -- -0.2Sri Lanka 2.3 2.9 -0.40 0.6Pakistan 6.8 6.9 -- 0.1Philippines 11.5 11.2 -- -0.3Thailand 19.2 20.4 -- 1.2Vietnam 28.0 28.5 -- 0.5
-- No change
World Rice Supply and Use2016/17estimate
2017/18forecast
Change from July 12
Change from 2016/17
Million Tons, milled
August 10, 2017
Beginning stocks 115.8 119.4 0.90 3.6Production 483.9 482.6 -1.07 -1.3Total Supply 599.7 602.0 -0.18 2.3Total use 480.3 479.1 -0.57 -1.3
Trade 43.1 43.7 0.50 0.6Ending Stocks 119.4 122.9 0.40 3.5
U.S. Rice Supply and DemandRough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice
2016/17estimate
2017/18forecast
Change fromJuly 12
Change from2016/17
Average market price 10.30 12.20/13.20 0.40 2.40-- No change
Dollars per cwt
August 10, 2017
Planted area (million acres) 3.15 2.56 -- -0.59
Harvested area (million acres) 3.10 2.48 -- -0.62Yield (pounds per acre) 7,237 7,513 -194 276
Million cwtBeginning stocks 46.5 45.9 -0.2 -0.6Production 224.1 186.5 -4.8 -37.7Imports 23.3 24.2 -- 0.9Total supply 293.9 256.6 -5.0 -37.3
Domestic use 132.0 117.5 -2.5 -14.5Exports 116.0 109.0 -- -7.0Total use 248.0 226.5 -2.5 -21.5
Ending stocks 45.9 30.1 -2.5 -15.8Percent
Stocks to use ratio 18.5 13.3 -1.0 -5.2
August 10, 2017
World Corn Production
-- No change
Country or Region
2016/17estimate
2016/17 change from July 12
2017/18forecast
2017/18 change from July 12
Change from 2016/17
Million TonsWorld 1,070.5 1.72 1,033.5 -3.43 -37.0United States 384.8 -- 359.5 -2.59 -25.3
Foreign 685.7 1.72 674.0 -0.83 -11.8Argentina 41.0 -- 40.0 -- -1.0Brazil 98.5 1.50 95.0 -- -3.5Mexico 27.4 -- 25.0 -- -2.4Canada 13.2 -- 13.9 -0.50 0.7European Union 61.1 0.43 60.0 -1.59 -1.1Serbia 7.6 -- 6.6 -0.40 -1.0FSU-12 47.4 -- 49.3 0.50 1.9Ukraine 28.0 -- 28.5 -- 0.5Russia 15.3 -- 16.5 0.50 1.2
South Africa 16.7 0.30 12.5 -- -4.2China 219.6 -- 215.0 -- -4.6India 26.0 -- 25.0 -- -1.0
August 10, 2017
Better rainfall during reproduction than last year.
August 10, 2017
Corn area has shown a downward trend in recent years, particularly in the Northeast, as policychanges in government support have forced farmers to switch to alternative profitable crops such as soybeans, peanuts, rice, potatoes, and silage
August 10, 2017
August 10, 2017
China Corn Area and Yield
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
15
20
25
30
35
40
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Area
Yield
Yield trend
August 10, 2017
Yield (MT per hectare)Area (Million hectares)
August 10, 2017
Despite drier‐than‐normal weather overall, two occurrences of timely rain in July – coincident with tassel and silk –
boosted corn yield prospects.
August 10, 2017Planting
2017
8.0”
6.0”
4.0”
12.0”
2.0”
10.0”
Tassel/Silk
30y Avg
GIS Crop data courtesy of SAGE/Univ Wisc.
Corn
The current VHI shows mostly good to excellent conditions for Ukraine corn as it
approaches grain fill.
Major Corn Areas
August 10, 2017
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
3520
07
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Area
(MHa) and
Yield(T/H
a)
Area
(MHa) and
Prod
uctio
n(M
MT)
Ukraine Corn: Estimated Area, Yield, and ProductionSource: USDA PSD Online
Harvested area Output Yield
Forecast production is unchanged at 28.5 mmt.
August 10, 2017
World Corn Supply and Use2016/17estimate
2017/18forecast
Change from July 12
Change from 2016/17
Million Tons
August 10, 2017
Beginning stocks 213.5 228.6 1.10 15.1Production 1,070.5 1,033.5 -3.43 -37.0Total Supply 1,284.0 1,262.1 -2.32 -21.9
Feed use 630.8 651.3 -0.84 20.5Total use 1,055.4 1,061.2 -2.38 5.8
Trade 162.4 152.0 -0.44 -10.4Ending Stocks 228.6 200.9 0.06 -27.7
U.S. Corn Supply and Demand2016/17estimate
2017/18forecast
Change from July 12
Change from 2016/17
Average market price 3.30/3.40Dollars per bushel
2.90/3.70 -- -0.05-- No change
August 10, 2017
Planted area (million acres) 94.0 90.9 -- -3.1
Harvested area (million acres) 86.7 83.5 -- -3.3Yield (bushels per acre) 174.6 169.5 -1.2 -5.1
Million bushelsBeginning stocks 1,737 2,370 -- 633Production 15,148 14,153 -102 -995Imports 55 50 -- -5Total supply 16,940 16,573 -102 -367
Feed and residual 5,425 5,450 -25 25Food, seed, and industrial 6,920 7,000 -- 80Ethanol 5,450 5,500 -- 50Domestic use 12,345 12,450 -25 105
Exports 2,225 1,850 -25 -375Total use 14,570 14,300 -50 -270
Ending stocks 2,370 2,273 Percent -52 -97
Stocks to use ratio 16.3 15.9 -0.3 -0.4
World Soybean ProductionCountry or
Region2016/17estimate
2017/18forecast
Change from July 12
Change from 2016/17
-- No change
Million Tons
August 10, 2017
World 351.7 347.4 2.3 -4.4United States 117.2 119.2 3.3 2.0
Foreign 234.5 228.1 -1.0 -6.4Argentina 57.8 57.0 -- -0.8Brazil 114.0 107.0 -- -7.0Paraguay 10.7 9.4 -- -1.3Canada 6.6 8.2 -0.2 1.7India 11.5 10.0 -1.5 -1.5China 12.9 14.0 -- 1.1
U.S. Soybean Supply and Demand2016/17estimate
2016/17 changefrom July 12
2017/18forecast
2017/18 changefrom July 12
Change from 2016/17
Average market price 9.50 --Dollars per bushel
8.45/10.15 -0.10 -0.20-- No change
August 10, 2017
Planted area (million acres) 83.4 -- 89.5 -- 6.1
Harvested area (million acres) 82.7 -- 88.7 -- 6.0Yield (bushels per acre) 52.1 -- 49.4 1.4 -2.7
Million bushelsBeginning stocks 197 -- 370 -40 174Production 4,307 -- 4,381 121 74Imports 25 -- 25 -- 0Total supply 4,528 -- 4,777 81 248
Crush 1,890 -10 1,940 -10 50Seed and residual 118 -- 136 1 18Domestic use 2,008 -10 2,076 -9 68
Exports 2,150 50 2,225 75 75Total use 4,158 40 4,301 66 143
Ending stocks 370 -40 475 15 105Percent
Stocks to use ratio 8.9 -1.1 11.1 0.2 2.1
World Cotton ProductionCountry or Region
2016/17estimate
2017/18forecast
Change from July 12
Change from 2016/17
-- No change
Million Bales
August 10, 2017
World 106.5 117.3 1.95 10.8United States 17.2 20.5 1.55 3.4
Foreign 89.3 96.8 0.40 7.4Argentina 0.8 0.7 -- -0.1Brazil 6.8 7.0 -- 0.2Turkey 3.2 3.6 -0.20 0.4Australia 4.2 4.8 -- 0.6China 22.8 24.5 0.50 1.8India 27.0 29.0 -- 2.0Pakistan 7.7 9.2 -- 1.5Uzbekistan 3.7 3.7 -- 0.0African Franc Zone 5.0 5.2 0.09 0.2
August 10, 2017
VHI also indicates goodgrowing conditions.
August 10, 2017
China Cotton Area and Yield
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
0
2
1
5
4
3
7
6
8
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Area
Yield
Yield trend
August 10, 2017
Area (Million hectares) Yield (MT per hectare)
World Cotton Supply and Use2016/17estimate
2017/18forecast
Change from July 12
Change from 2016/17
-- No change
Million Bales
August 10, 2017
Beginning stocks 97.2 90.0 -0.29 -7.2Production 106.5 117.3 1.95 10.8Total Supply 203.7 207.3 1.66 3.6
Consumption 113.6 117.4 0.38 3.8Trade 37.4 37.2 0.37 -0.2Ending Stocks 90.0 90.1 1.37 0.1
Addendum:
China Ending Stocks 48.4 39.3 -- -9.1
U.S. Cotton Supply and Demand2016/17estimate
2017/18forecast
Change fromJuly 12
Change from2016/17
Average market price 68.00Cents per pound
55.0/67.0 -- -7.00-- No change
August 10, 2017
Planted area (million acres) 10.07 12.06 -- 1.98
Harvested area (million acres) 9.51 11.05 -0.13 1.55Yield (pounds per acre) 867 892 76 25
Million balesBeginning stocks 3.80 2.80 -0.40 -1.00Imports 0.01 0.01 -- 0.00Production 17.17 20.55 1.55 3.38Total supply 20.98 23.36 1.15 2.38
Mill use 3.25 3.35 -0.05 0.10Exports 14.92 14.20 0.70 -0.72Total use 18.17 17.55 0.65 -0.62
Unaccounted 0.01 0.01 -0.01Ending stocks
Stocks/use
2.80
15.4
5.80
33.0
Percent 0.50
1.7
3.00
17.6
U.S. Sugar Supply and Demand2016/17estimate
2016/17 changefrom July 12
2017/18forecast
2017/18 change Change fromfrom July 12 2016/17
1,000 short tons, raw value
August 10, 2017
Beginning Stocks 2,054 0 1,675 235 -379Production 8,848 12 8,970 232 122Beets 4,998 10 5,068 80 70Cane 3,850 2 3,902 152 52
Imports 3,353 222 3,631 73 278TRQ 1,727 148 1,707 158 -20Re-export 350 -25 200 25 -150Mexico 1,266 104 1,714 -110 448High-tier 10 -5 10 -- 0Total Supply 14,255 235 14,276 540 21
Exports 125 -- 25 -- -100Domestic deliveries 12,455 -- 12,578 -- 123
Total use 12,580 -- 12,603 -- 23Ending stocks 1,675 235 1,673
Percent540 -2
Stocks/use ratio 13.3 1.9 13.3 4.3 0.0-- No change
Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand
2016/17estimate
2016/17 change 2017/18from July 12 forecast
2017/18 change Change fromfrom July 12 2016/17
Thousand MT
August 10, 2017
Beginning stocks 1,037 -- 981 -87 -56Production 5,957 0 6,100 -- 143Imports 94 9 75 -- -19Total Supply 7,088 9 7,156 -87 69
Domestic use 4,858 6 4,864 6 6Exports 1,248 89 1,476 -94 228Total Use 6,106 95 6,340 -88 234
Ending stocks 981 -87 816 1 -165-- No change
August 10, 2017
U.S. Meat Production and Prices2017
forecast2017 changefrom July 12
2018forecast
2018 changefrom July 12
Change from 2017
Production Beef
26.70 0.20 Billion pounds27.36
0.29 0.66
Pork 25.81 -0.03 26.74 -- 0.93Broilers 41.49 0.01 42.28 -- 0.79Turkey 5.98 -0.08 6.18 -- 0.20Total meat 100.74 0.10 103.32 0.30 2.58
Prices Steers
120.93 -2.00 Dollars/cwt116.25
-1.75 -4.68
Hogs
Broilers
51.11
94.3
2.00
1.0
48.25Cents/lb88.5
0.75
--
-2.86
-5.8Turkey 100.4 -2.5 104.5 -2.0 4.1
-- No change
U.S. Meat TradeMillion Pounds
-- No change
August 10, 2017
2017forecast
2017 changefrom July 12
2018forecast
2018 changefrom July 12
Change from 2017
ExportsBeef 2,784 -32 2,860 -10 76Pork 5,753 6 5,965 -- 212Broilers 6,814 -162 7,030 -- 216Turkey 611 8 650 -- 39Mature Chickens 139 -- 145 -- 6
Total meat 16,108 -180 16,658 -10 550Imports
Beef 2,832 43 2,870 -- 38
U.S. Milk Supply and Demand2017
forecast2017 changefrom July 12
2018forecast
2018 changefrom July 12
Change from2017
Billion pounds
August 10, 2017
Production 215.7 -0.6 220.3 -0.9 4.6Fat BasisImports 6.0 0.0 5.8 -0.0 -0.1Commercial use 211.9 -0.6 216.2 -1.3 4.2Exports 9.3 0.2 9.2 0.2 -0.1
Skim-solid BasisImports 6.3 0.1 6.4 0.0 0.1Commercial use 179.9 0.0 184.4 -1.1 4.5Exports 40.7 -0.5 42.1 0.2 1.4
U.S. Dairy Product Prices2017
forecast2017 changefrom July 12
2018forecast
2018 changefrom July 12
Change from2017
-- No change
August 10, 2017
Product prices Dollars/pound
Cheese 1.60 0.01 1.69 0.00 0.09Butter 2.44 0.05 2.44 0.06 -0.01Nonfat dry milk 0.90 -0.02 0.94 -0.03 0.04Dry whey 0.46 -0.02 0.46 -0.03 -0.00
Class prices Dollars/cwt
Class III 16.00 -- 16.80 -0.15 0.80Class IV 15.90 0.05 16.25 -- 0.35
All milk 17.90 0.10 18.50 -- 0.60
August 10, 2017
U.S. Production Summary
-- No change
2016/17estimate
2016/17 change from July 12
2017/18forecast
2017/18 change from July 12
Change from 2016/17
Crops and ProductsWheat (Million bu)
2,310 -- 1,739 -21 -570
Rice (Million cwt) 224.1 -- 186.5 -4.8 -37.7Corn (Million bu) 15,148 -- 14,153 -102 -995Sorghum (Million bu) 480 -- 369 13 -111Barley (Million bu) 199 -- 140 -3 -59Oats (Million bu) 65 -- 54 0 -11Soybeans (Million bu) 4,307 -- 4,381 121 74Soybean oil (Million lbs) 21,945 -115 22,505 -115 560Soybean meal (Thousand s.t.) 44,361 -275 46,075 -225 1,714Cotton (Million bales) 17.17 -- 20.55 1.55 3.38Sugar (Thousand s.t., raw value) 8,848 12 8,970 232 122
Milk (Billion lbs) 215.7 -0.6 220.3 -0.9 4.6
Meat (Billion lbs)Beef
26.70 0.20 27.36 0.29 0.66
Pork 25.81 -0.03 26.74 -- 0.93Broilers 41.49 0.01 42.28 -- 0.79Turkey 5.98 -0.08 6.18 -- 0.20Total Meat 100.74 0.10 103.32 0.30 2.58
August 10, 2017
Domestic Demand Summary
-- No change
2016/17estimate
2016/17 change from July 12
2017/18forecast
2017/18 change from July 12
Change from 2016/17
Crops and ProductsWheat (Million bu)
1,164 -- 1,166 -5 2
Rice (Million cwt) 132.0 0.0 117.5 -2.5 -14.5Corn (Million bu) 12,345 -- 12,450 -25 105Sorghum (Million bu) 240 -- 160 -- -80Barley (Million bu) 199 -- 188 -- -11Oats (Million bu) 156 -- 170 -- 14Soybeans (Million bu) 2,008 -10 2,076 -9 68Soybean oil (Million lbs) 19,600 -- 20,450 -- 850Soybean meal (Thousand s.t.) 33,050 -- 34,200 -- 1,150Cotton (Million bales) 3.25 -0.05 3.35 -0.05 0.10Sugar (Thousand s.t., raw value) 12,455 -- 12,578 -- 123
Milk (Billion lbs, fat basis) 211.9 -0.6 216.2 -1.3 4.2
Meat (Billion lbs)Beef
26.92 0.28 27.49 0.31 0.57
Pork 21.07 -0.00 21.57 -- 0.50Broilers 34.40 0.17 34.92 -- 0.52Turkey 5.39 -0.09 5.58 -- 0.19Total meat 88.65 0.36 90.42 0.31 1.77
August 10, 2017
U.S. Export Summary
-- No change
2016/17estimate
2016/17 change from July 12
2017/18forecast
2017/18 change from July 12
Change from 2016/17
Crops and productsWheat (Million bu)
1,055 -- 975 -- -80
Rice (Million cwt) 116.0 -- 109.0 -- -7.0Corn (Million bu) 2,225 -- 1,850 -25 -375Sorghum (Million bu) 225 -- 210 10 -15Barley (Million bu) 4 -- 5 -- 1Soybeans (Million bu) 2,150 50 2,225 75 75Soybean oil (Million lbs) 2,400 -- 2,300 -- -100Soybean meal (Thousand s.t.) 11,600 -300 12,200 -200 600Cotton (Million bales) 14.92 0.42 14.20 0.70 -0.72
Meat (Million lbs)
Beef 2,784 -32 2,860 -10 76Pork 5,753 6 5,965 -- 212Broilers 6,814 -162 7,030 -- 216Turkey 611 8 650 -- 39Mature Chickens 139 -- 145 -- 6Total meat 16,108 -180 16,658 -10 550
Price Summary2016/17estimate
2016/17 changefrom July 12
2017/18forecast
2017/18 changefrom July 12
Change from 2016/17
Crops and products
-- No change
August 10, 2017
Wheat ($/bu) 3.89 -- 4.80 -- 0.91Rice ($/cwt) 10.30 -0.20 12.70 0.40 2.40Corn ($/bu) 3.35 -- 3.30 -- -0.05Soybeans ($/bu) 9.50 -- 9.30 -0.10 -0.20Soybean oil (¢/lb) 32.50 0.50 33.00 1.00 0.50Soybean meal ($/s.t.) 320.00 -- 315.00 -5.00 -5.00Cotton (¢/lb) 68.00 -- 61.00 -- -7.00
LivestockSteers ($/cwt) 120.93 -2.00 116.25 -1.75 -4.68Hogs ($/cwt) 51.11 2.00 48.25 0.75 -2.86Broilers (¢/lb) 94.3 1.0 88.5 -- -5.8Turkeys (¢/lb) 100.4 -2.5 104.5 -2.0 4.1
Dairy productsCheese 1.60 0.01 1.69 0.00 0.09Butter 2.44 0.05 2.44 0.06 -0.01Nonfat dry milk 0.90 -0.02 0.94 -0.03 0.04Dry whey 0.46 -0.02 0.46 -0.03 0.00
Milk classesClass III ($/cwt) 16.00 -- 16.80 -0.15 0.80Class IV ($/cwt) 15.90 0.05 16.25 -- 0.35All milk ($/cwt) 17.90 0.10 18.50 -- 0.60