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A sleepy rice market: the calm before the storm?

http://irri.org/knowledge/publications/rice-today/rice-facts/a-sleepy-rice-market-the-calm-before-the-storm

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Outline

1. Climate Change / Global Warming

What is it? Is it happening? Are we causing it?

2. What does it mean for

Long term trends? Extreme weather?

3. What are the impacts of climate change on rice?

4. What are the impacts of rice on climate change?

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Greenhouse Effect

from Carbon Neutral: http://www.carbonneutral.com.au/climatechangediagram.htm

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2009 State of the Climate Report US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/bams-sotc/2009/bams-sotc-2009-brochure-hi-rez.pdf

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2009 State of the Climate Report

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2009 State of the Climate Report

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2009 State of the Climate Report

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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Carbon_History_and_Flux.png

Human Caused? Yes!

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The world is warming and the past decade wasthe warmest on record.

Global warming is undeniable.

Global warming is caused by human activity.

In Summary:

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Thompson Reuters Humanitarian Alert Net

http://www.alertnet.org/db/an_art/60167/2010/02/3-161204-1.htm

What does it mean?

1st:

Long Term Changes

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http://today.msnbc.msn.com/id/43107859/ns/business-consumer_news/

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http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/8629379.stm

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http://www.scidev.net/en/news/climate-change-threatens-important-mangroves.html

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Long term trends: Impacts on food supply so far

Corn and Wheat:

3 % decrease in production

20 % increase in cost

Source: Climate Trends and Global Crop Production Since 1980

David B. Lobell, Wolfram Schlenker, and Justin Costa-Roberts

Science 5 May 2011: 1204531

Rice and Soy:

minimal impact onproduction or price

on average

but...

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Future trends: sea level rise, changes in salinity, temperature rise,

precipitation and CO2 changes, increase in pests, disease, weeds.

One estimate: 15 percent decrease in yields in developing countries,

12 percent increase in prices by 2050 (but population growth?)http://irri.org/news-events/information-campaigns/climate-change-and-rice/impact-of-climate-change-on-rice?print=1&tmpl=component

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http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/aug/09/weather-hampers-pakistan-flood-relief

What does it mean?

2nd:

Extreme Events

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Typhoon Xangsane -- September 2006

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Vietnam: One province, 50 to 60 percent of

rice crop lost from single storm

http://www.fidr.or.jp/english/activity/vietnam/03.html

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The frequency of extremely heavy rain and

floods increases as global warming increases.

Dr James Hansen: What Climate Change Looks Like ... So Far

http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2010/20100813_WhatGlobalWarmingLooksLike.pdf

Climate Change and Extreme Weather Events

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http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/interactive/2009/dec/02/world-climate-anomalies-map

http://www.unep.org/pdf/ccScienceCompendium2009/cc_ScienceCompendium2009_full_en.pdf

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http://www.mapsofworld.com/world-top-ten/countries-with-most-rice-producing-countries.html

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Source: World Bank Environment Department June 2009

http://siteresources.worldbank.org/ENVIRONMENT/Resources/ESW_EcosystemBasedApp.pdf

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The consequences of climate change are

alreadyunfolding.

We are locked in to further increases intemperature and related impacts even if we

stop polluting right now.

Long term trends and extreme weather both

have an impact on rice production.

In Summary:

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http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/gl/guidelin/ch4ref5.pdf

Climate Impactsfrom rice:

Rice is a wetland crop

Flooding produces methane

Powerful greenhouse gas

http://www.pnas.org/content/99/19/11993.full

http://www.ibp.ethz.ch/research/environmentalmicrobiology/research/Wetlands

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Rice production is one of the top human sources of methane

New farming techniques can reduce emissions

Can be an important short term solution!

US EPA via http://oceanlink.island.net/ONews/ONews7/methane.html

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http://archive.irri.org/Aerobic_Rice/adb_south_asia/watersaving.html

Summary

Climate change will constrain rice supply and increase cost

Rice production is a significant contribution to climate

change

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Questions

Is rice an environmentally sound food choice?

Should we be paying more for climate friendly rice?

If supplies of rice are constrained, what does our

demand for rice here do to prices in other countries?

Should we be eating local staples instead?