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RfG Banding Thresholds – FES Scenario Data

Richard.Woodward@nationalgrid.com

Agenda

Intro + Key Points

Data Profiles:

Transmission System Demand

Distributed Generation

Sub 1MW Generation

Merit Orders for Response

Next steps

Back up data:

Transmission Generation

2

FES - Future Energy Scenarios

Distributed Generation – generation

directly-connected to the Distribution network

(also known as ‘embedded generation’)

Merit Order – the commercial viability of

response providers

Intro: RfG Banding

GC0048 discussions on RfG banding have focused on

reasonable expectations of Network Operators and

Generators co-ordinating to manage the GB energy network

The following data presents viable scenarios for system

demand, generation, and response levels in the coming two

decades, to illustrate how system management may change

The data is not a forecast, but is a reasonable expectation

based on inputs provided to NGET from external parties. It

has also been consulted on with Transmission and

Distribution System Owners

It is hoped this data will provide a context for this workgroup

agreeing where the GB banding thresholds should be set

http://fes.nationalgrid.com/ 3

Intro: Future Energy Scenarios

Gone Green is a world where green ambition is not restrained by

financial limitations. New technologies are introduced and embraced

by society, enabling all carbon and renewable targets to be met on

time

Slow Progression is a world where slower economic growth restricts

market conditions. Money that is available is spent focusing on low

cost long-term solutions to achieve de-carbonisation, albeit it later than

the target dates

No Progression is a world focused on achieving security of supply at

the lowest possible cost. With low economic growth, traditional

sources of gas and electricity dominate, with little innovation affecting

how we use energy

Consumer Power is a world of relative wealth, fast paced research

and development and spending. Innovation is focused on meeting the

needs of consumers, who focus on improving their quality of life 4

Headlines

Rapid growth of Distributed Generation (DG), a large proportion at

Micro-Generation (sub 1MW) scale.

Primarily renewable technologies, at MG level high volumes of Solar PV

Large volumes of intermittent DG lead to a significant reduction of

system demand at summer minimum through export netting

100% yield (not impossible) for solar, and higher wind outputs spikes, would

give drastically different daily demand profiles

The Band A requirements do not mandate operational metering or

instruction facilities other than curtailment.

Frequency and voltage regulation across an uncertain

demand/generation balance creates problems for the TSO

Traditional approaches to network containment in emergencies unlikely to

work. The TSO would inevitably have to request DNOs to disconnect DG

RfG banding needs to consider levels of DG visibility and service

availability, whilst markets need to evolve to support involvement of

smaller players, aggregators, suppliers etc 5

Demand

6

Annualised Transmission Demand

7

Transmission Demand – Summer Minimum

8

Max/Min scenario delta at end of FES period (1400): 14.3 GW

CP and GG scenarios introduce significant concern of future system

stability, including availability of viable balancing providers and the

need for DSR, or worst case, disconnection of DG

(Excludes interconnector export + generator own-use)

Distributed Generation

9

Current % Of Distributed

Generation connected by size (Dec 2014)

10

18%

29%

17%

11%

6%

2% Visible =

17%

Distributed Generation (DG) Profiles

11

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

GW

Consumer Power TOTAL

Gone Green TOTAL

No Progression TOTAL

Slow Progression TOTAL

Max/Min scenario delta: 11.9GW

Over 20GW increase in DG under CP scenario in 20 year horizon

Under NP, DG still anticipated to double in capacity over the course

of the scenarios

Generation Profiles (DG) – Solar; Wind

12

Gone Green = Slow Progression

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GW

Consumer Power Solar

Gone Green Solar

No Progression Solar

Slow Progression Solar

0

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Consumer Power Wind

Gone Green Wind

No Progression Wind

Slow Progression Wind

Generation Profiles (DG) – Non-Wind/Solar

13

Sub 1MW Generation

14

Sub 1MW Generation

Installed Capacity MW

15

Sub 1MW Generation (Installed Capacity MW)

Technology

16

-

2,000.00

4,000.00

6,000.00

8,000.00

10,000.00

12,000.00

14,000.00

16,000.00

18,000.00

20,000.00

20

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20

35

Gone Green Fuel Cell

Gone Green mCHP

Gone Green Biomass CHP

Gone Green Bio-gas CHP

Gone Green Gas CHP

Gone Green Hydro

Gone Green Wind

Gone Green PV

-

2,000.00

4,000.00

6,000.00

8,000.00

10,000.00

12,000.00

14,000.00

16,000.00

20

14

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35

Slow Progression Fuel Cell

Slow Progression mCHP

Slow Progression Biomass CHP

Slow Progression Bio-gas CHP

Slow Progression Gas CHP

Slow Progression Hydro

Slow Progression Wind

Slow Progression PV

Sub 1MW Generation (Installed Capacity MW)

Technology

17

-

1,000.00

2,000.00

3,000.00

4,000.00

5,000.00

6,000.00

7,000.00

8,000.00

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

No Progression Fuel Cell

No Progression mCHP

No Progression Biomass CHP

No Progression Bio-gas CHP

No Progression Gas CHP

No Progression Hydro

No Progression Wind

No Progression PV

-

5,000.00

10,000.00

15,000.00

20,000.00

25,000.00

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

Consumer Power Fuel Cell

Consumer Power mCHP

Consumer Power Biomass CHP

Consumer Power Bio-gas CHP

Consumer Power Gas CHP

Consumer Power Hydro

Consumer Power Wind

Consumer Power PV

Sub 1MW Generation (Installed MW)

Residential vs Other I&C Split

18

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Gone GreenCommercialTotal

Gone GreenResidentialTotal

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

SlowProgressionCommercialTotal

SlowProgressionResidentialTotal

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

NoProgressionCommercialTotal

NoProgressionResidentialTotal

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

ConsumerPowerCommercialTotal

ConsumerPowerResidentialTotal

Frequency Response

19

Pinch Point Definitions

Summer minimum (PM) – Average summer’s

afternoon where demand is low, but where large

volumes of un-instructable PV generation could spill

onto the system

Winter Peak – High demand periods where sufficient

generation needs to be on the system (or capable of

dispatch) to meet it, to avoid Frequency and inertia

issues caused by unplanned System or generator

outages/generator under-delivery etc.

20

Potential Pool of Response Providers:

Installed Capacity (MW)

21

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Consumer Power

Gone Green

No Progression

Slow Progression

Commercially available response (MW)

@ Summer Minimum (PM)

22

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MW

Consumer Power (In Merit)

Gone Green (In Merit)

No Progression (In Merit)

Slow Progression (In Merit)

Commercially available response (MW)

@ Winter Peak

23

40000

42000

44000

46000

48000

50000

52000

54000

56000

58000

60000

201

4/1

5

201

5/1

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6/1

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9/2

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203

3/3

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4/3

5

203

5/3

6

Consumer Power (in merit)

Slow Progression (in merit)

No Progression (in merit)

Gone Green (in merit)

Conclusions

24

Conclusions (based on FES)…

Significant proportion of new generation capacity in future years

will be ‘invisible’ in real time to the TSO/DNOs, based on today’s

connection and compliance requirements

The majority of new capacity will be intermittent load (e.g.

wind/PV), and is likely backed by a subsidy mechanism (CfD)

which discourages providing balancing support

Summer minimum will be particularly difficult for the TSO to

manage

Synchronous thermal plant (traditional balancing support providers)

will consist primarily of gas; can/should new nuclear support?

The co-ordination of TSOs, DNOs, suppliers, aggregators will be

critical to manage this position in the coming years

RfG banding has a big part to play in mitigating these viable

concerns 25

NGET Conclusions

It is essential that we have the ability (perhaps through an

aggregator/supplier) to instruct DG to maintain system security

Potentially also a huge market opportunity

At the present time DG is not mandated to provide Ancillary

Services. The options to mitigate are to either; (a) require some

kind of support (via technical capability); or (b) to request

disconnection in emergency circumstances?

Fault Ride Through and reactive capability/ voltage support will

need some consideration as will Grid Code / D Code requirements

for micro generation.

Whilst RfG was intended to address some of these issues it is

unlikely to be strong enough particularly for micro plant.

Aggregators or storage (batteries) could also help with this issue. 26

Next Steps

[To be agreed]

27

SUPPORTING INFORMATION

28

More info on four scenarios

29

Transmission Generation

30

Transmission (Tx) Generation: Total Capacity (MW)

31

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

110,000

120,000

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MW

Years

Grand Total Consumer Power

Grand Total Gone Green

Grand Total No progression

Grand Total Slow Progression

Tx Generation Capacity (MW):

Coal; Gas

32

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

Gas Consumer Power

Gas Gone Green

Gas No progression

Gas Slow Progression

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

20000

Coal Consumer Power

Coal Gone Green

Coal No progression

Coal Slow Progression

Tx Generation Capacity (MW):

Nuclear; Wind

33

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

Nuclear Consumer Power

Nuclear Gone Green

Nuclear No progression

Nuclear Slow Progression

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

Wind Consumer Power

Wind Gone Green

Wind No progression

Wind Slow Progression

Tx Generation Capacity (MW):

Solar; Interconnector

34 0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

20000

Interconnector ConsumerPower

Interconnector GoneGreen

Interconnector Noprogression

Interconnector SlowProgression

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Solar Consumer Power

Solar Gone Green

Solar No progression

Solar Slow Progression

Generation Capacity Changes

35

Technology Scenario Start MW End MW Change MW Change %

Biomass Slow Progression 1087 2567 1480 136.15%

Biomass Gone Green 1087 677 -410 -37.72%

Biomass Consumer Power 1087 397 -690 -63.48%

Biomass No progression 1087 397 -690 -63.48%

Coal No progression 18748 3902 -14846 -79.19%

Coal Consumer Power 18748 1914 -16834 -89.79%

Coal Slow Progression 18748 1914 -16834 -89.79%

Coal Gone Green 18748 0 -18748 -100.00%

Gas No progression 30791 39866 9075 29.47%

Gas Consumer Power 30791 30201 -590 -1.92%

Gas Slow Progression 30791 29261 -1530 -4.97%

Gas Gone Green 29296 24878 -4418 -15.08%

Generation Capacity Changes

36

Technology Scenario Start MW End MW Change MW Change %

Nuclear Gone Green 8756 14079 5323 60.79%

Nuclear Consumer Power 8756 10692 1936 22.11%

Nuclear Slow Progression 8756 7352 -1404 -16.03%

Nuclear No progression 8756 4552 -4204 -48.01%

Hydro Consumer Power 1122 1122 0 0.00%

Hydro Gone Green 1122 1122 0 0.00%

Hydro No progression 1122 1122 0 0.00%

Hydro Slow Progression 1122 1122 0 0.00%

Interconnector Gone Green 3750 17700 13950 372.00%

Interconnector Slow Progression 3750 14200 10450 278.67%

Interconnector Consumer Power 3750 10800 7050 188.00%

Interconnector No progression 3750 9800 6050 161.33%

Generation Capacity Changes

37

Technology Scenario Start MW End MW Change MW Change %

Oil Consumer Power 1140 0 -1140 -100.00%

Oil Gone Green 570 0 -570 -100.00%

Oil No progression 1140 0 -1140 -100.00%

Oil Slow Progression 1140 0 -1140 -100.00%

Pumped Storage Gone Green 2744 5256 2512 91.55%

Pumped Storage Consumer Power 2744 3356 612 22.30%

Pumped Storage Slow Progression 2744 3356 612 22.30%

Pumped Storage No progression 2744 2744 0 0.00%

Wind Gone Green 7723 41010.5 33287.5 431.02%

Wind Slow Progression 7723 34026 26303 340.58%

Wind Consumer Power 7723 23843 16120 208.73%

Wind No progression 7723 20677 12954 167.73%

Generation Mix

38

Consumer Power: 2014-15

Gas

Coal

Nuclear

Wind

Interconnector

Pumped_Storage

Oil

Hydro

Biomass

CCS

Marine

Solar

Consumer Power: 2035-36

Gas

Coal

Nuclear

Wind

Interconnector

Pumped_Storage

Oil

Hydro

Biomass

CCS

Marine

Solar

Generation Mix

39

Gone Green: 2014-15

Gas

Coal

Nuclear

Wind

Interconnector

Pumped_Storage

Hydro

Biomass

Oil

CCS

Marine

Solar

Gone Green: 2035-36

Gas

Coal

Nuclear

Wind

Interconnector

Pumped_Storage

Hydro

Biomass

Oil

CCS

Marine

Solar

Generation Mix

40

No Progression: 2014-15

Gas

Coal

Nuclear

Wind

Interconnector

Pumped_Storage

Oil

Hydro

Biomass

CCS

Marine

Solar

No Progression: 2035-36

Gas

Coal

Nuclear

Wind

Interconnector

Pumped_Storage

Oil

Hydro

Biomass

CCS

Marine

Solar

Generation Mix

41

Slow Progression: 2014-15

Gas

Coal

Nuclear

Wind

Interconnector

Pumped_Storage

Oil

Hydro

Biomass

CCS

Marine

Solar

Slow Progression: 2035-36

Gas

Coal

Nuclear

Wind

Interconnector

Pumped_Storage

Oil

Hydro

Biomass

CCS

Marine

Solar