REVOLUTION:WHY THEN AND NOT NOW?

Categories for AnalysisOligarchic Rule and Top-Down Reform

(1880s-1920s)Populism and Dictatorship (1930s-1970s)The Revolutionary Path (1950s-1980s)An Expansion of Democracy (1980s-Present)The Pulse of Democratic Change

13. DYNAMICS OF POLITICAL TRANSFORMATION

WHAT IS A REVOLUTION?

“an extralegal seizure of political power, by the use or threat of force, for the purpose of bringing about structural change in the distribution of political, social, or economic power”

not the same as routine barracks revolts or golpes de estado

WHY THEN (1950s-70s)?

Authoritarian regimes Personalist, corrupt Military repression No real elections

Socioeconomic inequality Communication and awareness Cityward migration, social mobilization

Marxist ideology Call for revolution Soviet + Chinese support

Example of Cuba (1959)

AND NOW…? (1980s-2000s)

Political democracy Dissent through elections Opposition victories Emergence of “new left”

Socioeconomic development Middle-class aspirations + conservative values Prosperity (of sorts) since 2004

Liberal ideology Rejection of Marxism “End of history”

Example of Cuba (1990s-present)

Figure 1. Cycles of Political Change in Latin America, 1900-2000

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1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Year

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mb

er Semi-Democracy

Oligarchy

Democracy

THE RISE OF THE NEW LEFT: WHY?

Economic—lack of growth (through 2003), poverty and inequality, frustration with Washington Consensus

Political—weakness of representative institutions, inattention to poor, persistence of corruption; possibility of winning elections

International—war in Iraq, opposition to Bush policies and growing distaste for American society

THE NEW LEFT: WHERE?

South America: Venezuela Brazil Argentina Bolivia Ecuador Paraguay Peru Uruguay

Central America: Honduras Nicaragua El Salvador

Near-Miss: Mexico

THE NEW LEFT: GOALS

Domestic—winning power, rearranging electoral alignments; overturning status quo, changing policy direction, promoting social justice

Hemispheric—gaining support throughout Latin America, reducing U.S. hegemony

Global—challenging international order, forging alliances with developing world and non-aligned nations

CONSEQUENCES

Democracy = broad ideological spectrum, from “left” to “right”

Prosperity = mixed economies; rejection of Washington Consensus

Ideology = diversity rather than unityAlliances = suspicion of U.S. leadership and rules of the

game

The End.