REVISTA ROMÂNĂ DE STATISTICĂ ... · RECENZIE DE CAR TE: UN VALOROS SET DE MATERIALE ... un model de creştere continuă. Modelele de creştere endogenă, chiar dacă au în comun

Revista Română de Statistică nr. 12 / 2013

SUMAR / CONTENTS 12/2013REVISTA ROMÂNĂ DE STATISTICĂ www.revistadestatistica.ro

UNELE TEORII DE DURABILITATE ECOLOGICĂ 3 SOME THEORIES OF ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY 14 Prof. univ. dr. Irina-Virginia DRAGULANESCU Universitatea din Messina, Italia dr. Natalia DRAGULANESCU

NEW TRENDS IN EUROPEAN COMPANIES’ BUSINESS MODELS 24 PhD Professor Georgeta ILIE “Dimitrie Cantemir” Christian University

PROFIT FORECAST MODEL USING MONTE CARLO SIMULATION IN EXCEL 33

Petru BALOGH Pompiliu GOLEA Valentin INCEU „Dimitrie Cantemir” Christian University

THE STRUCTURE OF ROMANIAN’S FOOD CONSUMPTION AND ITS IMPLICATIONS ON HEALTH CONDITION AND QUALITY OF LIFE 41

Mihaela CONSTANDACHE Daniela - Simona NENCIU

THE ECONOMIC DIMENSION OF ENVIRONMENTAL RISK MANAGEMENT IN KNOWLEDGE-BASED SOCIETY 52

PhD Ana-Maria DINU “Dimitrie Cantemir” University, Bucharest

RECENZIE DE CARTE: UN VALOROS SET DE MATERIALE DIDACTICE ÎN SPRIJINUL PREGĂTIRII JURNALIŞTILOR ŞI VIITORILOR SPECIALIŞTI ÎN COMUNICARE 60

PROGRAMUL STATISTIC EUROPEAN PENTRU PERIOADA 2013-2017 65

REALIZAREA STATISTICII CA INSTITUŢIE PUBLICĂ, PERMANENTĂ A STATULUI DUPĂ UNIREA PRINCIPATELOR 72

IMPRESII LEGATE DE STAGIATURA LA INSTITUTUL NAŢIONAL DE STATISTICĂ DIN ROMÂNIA 76

IMPRESSIONS ABOUT WORKING IN NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF STATISTICS OF ROMANIA 78

Romanian Statistical Review nr. 12 / 20132

Revista Română de Statistică, editată de Institutul Naţional de Statistică, este unica publicaţie de specialitate din ţara noastră, în domeniul teoriei şi practicii statistice. Articolele publicate se adresează oamenilor de ştiinţă, cercetătorilor, precum şi utilizatorilor de date şi informaţii statistice interesaţi în lărgirea şi aprofundarea orizontului cunoaşterii prin asimilarea noţiunilor de specialitate, abordarea de noi lucrări şi studii de referinţă pe care să le aplice ulterior în domeniul în care îşi desfăşoară activitatea. Prin prezentarea unor lucrări ştiinţifi ce şi de promovare a culturii statistice, necesară în economia de piaţă funcţională, revista se doreşte a fi un spaţiu propice schimbului de idei şi, totodată, o provocare. Orice studiu sau opinie care poate contribui la dezvoltarea gradului de înţelegere a statisticii ca ştiinţă este binevenit.

The Romanian Statistical Review, issued by the National Institute of Statistics, is in our country specialising in the fi eld of statistical theory and practice. The articles published are addressed to the scientists, researchers and statistical data and information users interested in broadening and deepening their horizon of knowledge by acquiring specialised notions and coming into contact with new papers and reference studies they can later apply in their own fi eld. Through the presentation of papers that are scientifi c in nature and that promote statistical culture, which is necessary in a functional market economy, the Review aims to be a favourable space for exchange of ideas and a challenge at the same time. Any study or opinion that can contribute to the development of the degree understanding statistics as a science is welcome.

La Revue Roumaine de Statistique, éditée par l’Institut National de la Statistique, est la seule publication de spécialité de notre pays dans le domaine de la théorie et de la pratique statistique. Les articles y étant publiés s’adressent aux scientifi ques, aux chercheurs, ainsi qu’aux utilisateurs de données et d’informations statistiques, intéressés d’élargir leur horizon de connaissances avec des notions de spécialité et de nouveaux travaux et études de référence qu’ils peuvent appliquer ultérieurement dans leurs domaines d’activité. Par la présentation de certains ouvrages scientifi ques et de promotion de la culture statistique nécessaires dans l’économie de marché fonctionnelle, la Revue se veut être un espace propice à l’échange d’idées et en même temps une provocation. Toute étude et opinion qui pourraient contribuer au développement du degré de compréhension de la statistique en tant que science sont bienvenues.

Revista Română de Statistică nr. 12 / 2013 3

Unele teorii de durabilitate ecologică Prof. univ. dr. Irina-Virginia DRAGULANESCU [email protected] Universitatea din Messina, Italia dr. Natalia Dragulanescu [email protected]

Abstract

Lucrarea trateaza motivaţiile economistilor neoclasici în abordarea problemelor de sustenabilitate, în fundamentarea unei noi ramuri a economiei politice care studiază problemele legate de utilizarea resurselor naturale şi a externalităţilor de mediu. Studiile de economia mediului, perspectivele şi completările care leagă economia bazată pe cunoaştere de aplicaţiile teoriei economice la problemele de mediu, incearca sa ofere un cadru general, cat mai lipsit de speculaţii al conceptului de dezvoltare durabilă. În acest articol vom evidenţia, de asemenea, cum aspectele legate de mediu sunt prelucrate într-un perimetru defi nit de instrumente economice pentru a apăra “ortodoxia” economica neoclasică in fata eşecului piaţei şi pentru a sprijini directionarea pe o cale de dezvoltare care sa fi e durabilă. Keywords: modelele de creştere, abordare neoclasica, defi cit de resurse, sustenabilitate

***

1. Sustenabilitatea creşterii in economia neoclasică

Punctul de vedere al economiei neoclasice (Cozzi T., Zamagni S., 1989, p. 733) pe care se bazează politicile neo-liberale are ca obiectiv declarat maximizarea bunăstării (Varian Hal R., 1990, p. 505), identifi cat cu dorinţa de a oferi cât mai multor persoane cele mai mari oportunităţi privind consumul. Teoria economica neoclasica a creşterii (dezvoltarii), ia în considerare creşterea producţiei şi, prin urmare, a veniturilor disponibile deci a nivelurilor mai ridicate ale consumului ca remediu impotriva sărăciei pentru progres şi dezvoltare. Abordarea neoclasică se bazează pe ipoteza conform


careia capacitatea de autoreglare (Tietenberg T., 2006, p. 8) a pieţei libere şi nerestrictionate precum si progresul tehnologic sunt în măsură să ofere posibilitatea de substituţie infi nită între diferitele forme de capital, diminuind, astfel, constrângerile care decurg din posibila lipsa de resurse, permite o creştere durabilă, un nivel de consum nedescrescator în timp. În contextul acestui cadru teoretic, un punct esenţial de referinţă il reprezinta modelul lui Solow (Solow R. M., 1956). Dezvoltarea economică (in sensul de creştere economică), este identifi cat cu un nivel de consum nedescrescator în timp şi durabilitatea acestuia ia forma unor constrângeri cu privire la utilizarea resurselor conform regulii Hartwick-Solow (Solow R.M., 1974). Regula asigura că în cazul în care costurile de utilizare (Tietemberg T., 2006, p. 60), generate de un plan efi cient pentru extracţia de resurse neregenerabile sunt economisite şi reinvestite in capital de surse regenerabile, nivelul de investiţii care ar rezulta ar fi sufi cient pentru a asigura o valoare a stocului de capital (economic), cel puţin constantă în timp, ceea ce face posibil un nivel de producţie şi de consum nedescrescator (şi anume, durabilitatea dezvoltarii). Astfel, devine aproape irelevanta problema disponibilitatii limitate a resurselor naturale chiar daca este vorba de cele neregenerabile. De fapt, este posibil ca nivelurile de consum să rămână nedescrescatoare, chiar daca resurse epuizabile sunt in scadere (Musu I., 2003, p. 156), cu conditia ca sa se mentina constant stocul de capital, asigurandu-se in fi ecare perioada o investitie adecvata în capitalul creat de om. Supozitia fundamentala care stă la baza acestor modele este substituibilitatea perfectă între capitalul natural (incluzând atât resursele regenerabile cat şi neregenerabile) şi alte forme de capital (capitalul fi zic cat şi capital creat de om) (Hartwick J., 1977). Conform gândirii lui Solow productivitatea marginala a capitalului este descrescatoare, ceea ce înseamnă că la un moment dat creşterea economica va inceta, cu alte cuvinte, consumul pe cap de locuitor va rămâne constant. Numai progresul tehnic, luat in considerare ca variabilă exogenă al modelului (Fischer S., Dornbush R., 1995, p.350), se poate contrabalansa această tendinţă, permiţând ca funcţia de producţie sa devina crescatoare iar cresterea economica sa nu se opreasca. Modelele de creştere endogenă, chiar dacă au aceiasi fi losofi e de bază, cea a lui Solow, elimina ambele ipoteze, cea a productivitatii descrescatoare a capitalului şi cea a exogeneităţii progresului tehnic. A elimina ambele ipoteze inseamna pe de-o parte a nega ca, în viitor, se poate realiza procesul de convergenţă între ratele de creştere economica ale diferitelor ţări, iar pe de alta de a prevedea tendinţa de continuare a expansiunii: nu există mecanisme implicite de oprire (de fapt, productivitatea marginală descrescatoare a capitalului a dus la oprirea creşterii economice cu excepţia cazului în care a fost compensată de progresul tehnic exogen).


2. Revizuirea viziuni economice neoclasice Abordarea neoclasică propune, pentru un sistem economic considerate ca fi ind inchis şi liniar, un model de creştere continuă. Modelele de creştere endogenă, chiar dacă au în comun fi losofi a de bază a lui Solow, inlatura atât ipoteza productivitatii descrescatoare a capitalului cat şi pe cea a exogeneităţii progresului tehnic. Eliminarea ambelor ipoteze înseamna pe de-o parte a nega faptul ca, în viitor, se poate realiza convergenţa între ratele de creştere economica ale diferitelor ţări, iar pe de alta de a prevedea tendinţa de continuare a expansiunii: nu există mecanisme implicite de stopare (productivitatea marginală descrescatoare a capitalului a determinat incetarea creşterii economice, cu excepţia cand a fost compensată de progresul tehnic exogen). În plus, interesul sporit pentru echilibrul pieţei, considerat capabil să asigure efi cienţa economică (Tietenberg T., 2006, p. 27) şi maximizarea bunăstării, aproape ca a eclipsat total abordarea pe termen lung, eliminând astfel, orice consideraţie “pesimista”, tipică a studiilor clasice (Cozzi T., Zamagni S., 1989, p. 35 şi succ.). Economiştii clasici precum Malthus, Ricardo, Mill, Marx, erau convinsi ca activitatea economică era conditionată de mediu, credeau în rolul pietei ca fundament indispensabil al creşterii economice. De fapt, piaţa ar fi distribuit merite şi efi cienţa, generand bogăţie pentru toţi. Aceasta perspectiva optimista este prezenta în mod evident din studiile lui Adam Smith precum şi a multor alţi economişti importanti de la sfârşitul secolului al XIX-lea si începutul secolului al XVIII-lea. Această concluzie teoretica nu trebuie sa deruteze, deoarece încrederea în piaţa a economistilor clasici se referea doar la o viziune pe termen scurt. Pe termen lung economia ar fi ajuns la o stare de echilibru stationar care coincide cu nivelul de simpla subsistenţa a tuturor. Motivatia acestui punct de vedere negativ, rezida in conştiintizarea asupra resurselor naturale, ca entitati rare şi limitate, cu alte cuvinte ca un sistem fi nit de elemente. Creşterea economică pe termen lung, ar fi atins limita maxima a sistemului de resurse naturale, devenind o frână în calea creşterii. Punctul de vedere “pesimist”, pe termen lung, al economiştilor clasici este bine exprimat în studiile lui Thomas Malthus şi David Ricardo. Malthus şi Ricardo evidentiaza constrângerile impuse de mediul în ceea ce priveşte defi citul de terenuri fertile cultivabile.


Sistemul economic: sistem închis şi liniar

Figura 1

Piata bunurilor si serviciilor

Piata factorilor de productie

Gospod riiFirme

Sursa: elaborare pe baza Turner K., Pearce W., Bateman I., p.28

Economiştii neoclasici tradiţionali apreciaza sistemul economic din perspectiva unui sistem închis şi liniar (Turner K., Pearce W., Bateman I., p.28) (Fig. 1) si nu iau în considerare, spre deosebire de cei clasici, ipoteza unei conexiuni obligatorii între sistemul economic şi de mediu. Mediul are doar o valoare instrumentală, exista pentru a fi transformat iar resurse ce trebuie utilizate în funcţia de producţie trebuie să se adapteze pentru a satisface echilibrul pieţei. Exploatarea nelimitata a resurselor naturale, este general acceptata ca fi ind preţul ce trebuie plătit pentru a alimenta creşterea economică si de a creea locuri de munca. Neacordarea atenţiei cuvenite consideraţiilor pe termen lung, ca urmare a încrederii excesive în efi cienţa Pareto a mecanismului de piaţă şi a progresului tehnologic, a impiedicat ca resursele naturale sa fi e considerate drept o limita a creşterii economice. Piaţa oricum ar fi rezolvat problema lipsei de resurse prin modifi cări de preţ, încurajand activitatea de cercetare şi progresul tehnologic. Increderea oarbă in mecanismele de piaţă şi progresul tehnologic au favorizat politicile de investiţii fără a ţine cont de aspectele de mediu. O viziune optimistă, cea neoclasica, care pe parcursul secolului al XX-lea a este raspunzatoare de marile devastari ale mediului. Cu toate acestea, trebuie remarcat contextul istoric special în care au trăit economiştii neoclasici. Lumea era plină de stimuli pozitivi, progresul avansa cu ritmuri din ce in ce mai mari si nu se vedeau inca efectele negative pe care le-a produs. Globul pamantesc era inca perceput ca un teritoriu nemarginit tocmai bun de a fi cucerit conform unei logici de tip “Far West” (Boulding K., 1966). Modelul neoclasic al creşterii a functionat până când structura societatilor avea natura agricola sau pre-industriala (Ravera O., 1998, p. 39), cu o densitate a populaţiei si o productie redusă şi difuza; cultura dominantă, în


special în zonele agricole, viza reutilizarea şi reciclare a resurselor materiale; reziduurile proceselor din activităţile economice erau receptionate si respectiv eliminate în cadrul ciclului natural de auto-epurare; existand un echilibru substanţial între om, producţie, consum şi mediul înconjurător. Odată cu creşterea populaţiei, concentrarea acesteia in aglomerări urbane de dimensiuni din ce in ce mai mari, cu creşterea producţiei şi a consumului, s-a ajuns la o utilizare impresionanta a resurselor naturale asociata unei producţii ridicate de deşeuri, rezultand in consecinta ruperea echilibrului iniţial şi a ciclul ce avea loc spontan în natură. Viziunea optimista al economiei în continuă creştere, care a caracterizat o mare parte a secolului al XX-lea a început să intre o criză în anii ‘60, atunci când, cu primele fenomene de smog, lipsa de resurse şi poluare, ideea că creşterea economică tractata de progres este nelimitata s-a ciocnit de evidentele consecinţe asupra mediului, al poluarii precum şi impactul asupra sănătăţii umane (Carson R., 1962; Commoner B., 1971).

3. Sistemul economic ca subsistem deschis şi circular

Încrederea excesivă în substituibilitatea totală între resurse prin mecanisme de piaţă şi al progresului tehnologic, a facut ca supozitia neoclasica generala să intre în confl ict cu realitatea fi nita a mediului natural şi prin urmare sa se constientizeze faptul ca comunităţile umane sunt parte a unei comunitati mult mai ample, care le include si pe cele non-umane (Daly H., Cobb J., 1990). Din acest punct de vedere, economia tradiţională, cea “reala” (cea a sistemului economic formata din instituţii, activităţi destinate să producă bunuri şi servicii utilizand resurse defi citare ce ar putea fi alocate mai efi cient, în utilizări alternative, pentru a satisface nevoile umane (Turner K., Pearce W., Bateman I., 2003, p.27.) ar trebui să fi e considerata doar ca o parte a unei economii mai ample, aşa-numita “extinsa”, care susţine întreaga structură globală a viaţii: un tip de economie care să ia în considerare relaţia de interdependenţă între mediu şi sistemul economic. În anii ‘60, prin urmare, incepe recunoasterea existentei unei relaţii de interdependenţă intre economie şi mediu (Georgescu R., 1971) şi de a vedea economia reală ca un subsistem deschis si circular care poate functiona numai cu sprijinul fundamentului ecologic propriu. Este vorba, însă, de un sistem in continua creştere inserat într-un sistem mai mare, dar fi nit, stationar, inchis (nu permite intrarea de materie noua), fi ind deschis doar pentru energia solară. Aceste aspecte, preluate de Daly in ultimii douăzeci de ani, au fost anterior descrise de Boulding (Boulding K., 1966) în celebra sa lucrare “The Economics of the Coming Spaceship Earth”.


În această lucrare sunt descrise evolutiile ce trebuie sa fi e parcurse de ştiinţa economica, astfel incat dintr-o “cowboy economy”, ca pionieri într-o lume de cucerit, în care carenta de resurse nu este perceputa, să evolueze spre o “spaceman” economy. Mai exact, spaceship (nava spatial) reprezinta un sistem circular în care toate eforturile trebuie sa se concentreze in reciclarea materialelor, reducerea deşeurilor, în menţinerea surselor epuizabile de energie şi în exploatarea surselor de energie regenerabile, precum energia solară (Turner K., Pearce W., Bateman I., 2003, p.20). În sinteză, lucrarea lui Boulding reprezintă formalizarea modelului bilanţului de materiale cu interdependenţele dintre sistemul economic şi mediul înconjurător (Fig. 2).

Sistemul economic ca subsistem deschis si circular. Modelul Bilantului de materiale

Figura 2Energie Solara

Flux de intrare de energie nou în mediul înconjur tor

Mediu: materie �i energie

util

Recuperare si reutilizare

Reziduuri care nu se utilizeaz : - Materiale reziduale

nefolositoare (de ex. de�euri)

- Pierderi de energie (gaze de evacuare, caldura reziduala)

deseuri finale provenite din reciclare

Flux de intrare în sistemul economic

Reciclare

Deseuri refolosibile

Reziduuri de proces

Sistemul economic: un ansamblu de procese de extrac�ie, prelucrare, produc�ie �i consum de materii prime �i energie

il

Sursa: elaborarea autorilor

În acest model sistemul economic este deschis şi circular, caracterizat printr-un ansamblu de procese de extracţie al materiei şi energiei din mediul înconjurător, apoi de procesare primara, de producţie şi de consum. La sfârşitul


fi ecarui proces rezulta reziduuri propri, ce nu mai pot fi utilizate de mediu si in mediu, ca receptor. Acestea contabilitate se supune primei si celei de-a doua lege a termodinamicii (Musu, 2003, p.14) care evidentiaza constrângerile de mediu pe care sistemul trebuie sa le ia in considerare.

4. Gândirea economiştilor neoclasici moderni

Atunci când, în anii ‘60 consecinţele evidente a logicii “cowboy economy” si nu a celei de tip “spaceman” economy au alimentat dezbaterea cu privire la limitele de mediu şi sociale ale creşterii economice, în literatura de specialitate s-au evidenţiat două poziţii: cea neo-malthusiană si cealalta neoclasică derivata din revizuirea conceptului. A fost, în fapt, revizuită esenţa conceptului, au fost puse în discuţie punctele critice, precum încrederea oarbă in mecanismele de piaţă, logica preţurilor de echilibru, potenţialul progresului tehnologic, capacitatea sistemului de a asigura creşterea economică maximă. Într-un cuvânt, au fost acceptate critici majore la adresa teoriei neoclasice pure pentru a salva propria-i ortodoxie. Noi elemente de studiu au devenit parte a teoriilor, este deajuns daca ne gandim la revizuirea efi cientei dinamice, care include variabila “E” (Turner K., Pearce W., Bateman I., 2003, p. 106), la recunoasterea importantei dezeeconomiilor externe, la costurile poluării şi necesitatea de a internaliza “costurile externe”, în cele ale sectorului privat. Aceste aspecte, au accentuat ulterior criza pietei şi capacitatea acestuia de a atinge echilibrul optim, aşa că se vorbea de “eşecul pieţei” şi necesitatea de a remedia situaţia prin intervenţie publică. Regula decizională a modelului Analiza Cost-Benefi ciu, funcţională unei alocari intertemporală a unor resurse efi ciente din punct de vedere social (efi cienţă dinamică) trebuie să fi e corectată prin includerea benefi ciilor posibile şi/sau costurilor care pot rezulta din schimbările mediul determinate de proiectul sau măsura politică în curs de evaluare. Prin urmare, pentru ca un proiect sau o măsură politică sa fi e adoptate este necesar ca suma algebrica a valorilor actualizate a benefi ciilor non-de mediu, a costurilor şi al valoarii nete al modifi carii mediului sa fi e pozitiva.

5. Economiştii neomalthusieni

Relaţia strânsă care leagă creşterea populaţiei, creşterea economică, utilizarea resurselor şi capacitatea de asimilare a mediului, i-a determinat pe mulţi economişti să susţină că singura cale pentru dezvoltarea durabilă ar fi fost caracterizată de o creştere economică şi a populaţiei „zero”, crearea deliberata a unei “stari de echilibru”, înainte de a se ajunge la o situaţie de


defi cit absolut de resurse naturale (Daly H., 1977). Meritul principal a lui Daly este acela de a readuce atenţia asupra limitelor naturii şi solicitarea revizuirii critice a conceptului neoclasic de creştere economică indefi nita. In succesivele lucrari autorul se axează mai ales asupra analizei diferenţelor dintre creştere şi dezvoltare şi anume al caracterului cantitativ al conceptului de crestere si calitativ al celui de dezvoltare. Propunand aceasta deosebire ajunge să vorbească despre “dezvoltare fără creştere economica”, ca singura cale posibilă a dezvoltarii, si de a face fata limitelor biofi zice pe care natura le impune activitatii umane (prin urmare, propune depăşirea raportarii la PIB, acesta fi ind considerat un indicator simplu al creşterii economice şi nu al dezvoltarii). În acest context, Daly vorbeşte despre o economie in starea de echilibru ce poate fi realizata prin: i. controlul nasterilor (un fel de piata a permiselor de naştere), ii.menţinerea nivelului entropiei sub limitele de regenerare a sistemelor; iii. redistribuirea stocurilor constante de bogăţie în cadrul unei populaţii mentinute constanta. Aceste concluzii importante si de neevitat asociate associate “punctului de vedere malthusian” (Malthus, 1909), sunt conţinute în binecunoscuta lucrare “Limitele creşterii” (Meadows D.L., Randers J., Beherens W., 1972 and 1981). În 1968, economistul italian Aurelio Peccei creaza binecunoscutul centru cultural Clubul de la Roma, iar primul raport publicat al acesteia (în 1972) fi ind intitulat chiar “Limitele Creşterii”. Datele continute in acest raport au fost obţinute printr-o tehnică cunoscută sub numele de “dinamica sistemelor” precum si folosind un model de operare pe calculator pentru simularea rezultatelor probabile ale economiei mondiale în viitor. Studiul a ajuns la concluzia că, deşi rezervele cunoscute de minerale şi energie ar fi fost multiplicate cu cinci (datorită noilor descoperiri şi tehnologii), natura exponenţială a creşterii ar duce la epuizarea majoritatii resurselor în mai puţin de o sută de ani, tinand cont de rata medie anuala de creştere a consumului acestora. Acest lucru ar fi dus la prăbuşirea întregii societăţii moderne, daca nu s-ar fi realizat importante modifi cari in relatiile fi zice - economice - sociale, care au condus în mod tradiţional procesul de dezvoltare mondial. In documentul elaborat de Meadows şi de alti economisti din Boston este exprimată în mod clar în poziţia neo-malthusiena (Turner K., Pearce W., Bateman I., 2003, p. 228), si anume convingerea asupra imposibilitatii unei creşteri economice continue pe termen nelimitat în condiţii de mediu limitate din cauza epuizarii inevitabile a resurselor planetei. Acelasi punct de vedere a avut aderare chiar mai recent (Daly, Cobb, 1990). În pofi da consensului teoretic general, nu au lipsit criticile la adresa abordarii lui Meadows. Concluziile catastrofale cuprinse în “Limitele creşterii”, au fost considerate excesive şi fals de catre economistii neoclasici moderni (Tietenberg, 2006, p. 8) pe baza urmatoarelor de argumente:


Progresul tehnologic permite creştea productivitatii resurselor si deci resursele disponibile pot dura din ce in ce mai mult. De aceea, se crede că economia ar putea evolua în aşa fel încât creşterea economică sa reduca efectele sale asupra mediului. Progresul tehnologic poate face utilizarea mai efi cientă a resurselor şi reduce crearea de reziduuri nocive, prin urmare, acţioneaza asupra bilantului de materiale in scopul realizarii separarii intre sistemul economic si mediu. Având în vedere legile termodinamicii, o separare totală este imposibilă. Activitatea economică va folosi întotdeauna o anumită cantitate de resurse, dar datorită productivitatii marite, cantitatea utilizată ar putea scădea din ce in ce mai mult pentru fi ecare unitate de produs, iar impactul asupra mediului ar putea fi redus în mod progresiv. Descoperirea continua de noi zacaminte, dar ideea unei “cantitati fi xe” este o iluzie. Suntem capabili de a controla cantitatea de deseuri re-introduse în mediu prin reciclarea unor materiale si colectarea gazelor înainte ca acestea sa iasa din sistemul economic. Putem înlocui tehnologiile poluante cu altele mai puţin nocive. În acord cu legile pieţei ale cererii şi ofertei, atunci când o resursă devine rară creşte preţul ofertei iar cererea se comprima, cu alte cuvinte indivizii sunt indusi sa le foloseasca cu mai multa atentie (stimularea conservarii), şi se trece la alte resurse mult mai accesibile (stimularea substitutiei). Chiar dacă populaţia creste in termeni absoluţi, în multe ţări, rata de creştere ese contracta, deoarece indivizii dau seama de benefi ciile unui nucleu familiar redus (Turner K., Pearce W., Bateman I., 2003, p. 54).

Concluzii

Subiectul analizat este de mare actualitate si a avut o importanta considerabila in ultimii ani, ca urmare a atenţiei majore acordata protecţiei mediului de institutiile la nivel naţional şi supranaţional, având în vedere costurile sociale substanţiale provocate de degradarea mediului şi al rolului reorientarii fi scale a impozitului Pigovian. Pornind de la viziunea optimista a teoriei neoclasice a creşterii economice, pentru a aprofunda relaţia dintre sistemul economic şi sistemul mediu, se considera ca baza supozitia ca pieţele libere şi nerestricţionate au capacitatii de a se autoreglementa. Prin urmare, este vorba de procesul de auto-limitare generat de un feedback negativ în corespondenţa unei probleme precum lipsă de resurse. O eventuala scădere a disponibilităţii unei resurse conduce la o creştere a preţurilor, care va duce la abandonarea treptată a utilizării acesteia, cel puţin în acele producţii în care


acesta poate fi înlocuita cu alta, la un cost mai mic. Astfel, cererea scade la un nivel compatibil cu disponibilitatea resursei respective. Simultan, defi citul de resurse declanşează un proces de cercetare tehnologică de a identifi ca noi soluţii tehnice pentru a atinge aceleaşi obiective de producţie, folosind materiale diferite. Astfel, ambele reacţii (creşterea preţului şi orientarea catre solutii alternative) au tendinţa de a reduce amploarea problemei iniţiale. Printre oamenii de ştiinţă care aprofundeaze şi critica abordarea marginalista (Georgescu R., 1971) sugerează că ştiinţa economică ar trebui să ţină mai mult cont de legile naturii, demonstrand ireversibilitatea reala a implicaţiilor materiale şi energetice ale proceselor de producţie. Respinge reprezentarea procesului economic ca fi ind separat de mediul în care aceasta are loc, sugerând o legătură fi zică cu sistemul terestru supus creşterii treptate a entropiei. Mediul este un ansamblu fi nit. Fluxul de materie / energie pe care sistemul il preia din mediu trebuie să se întoarcă în cele din urmă inapoi in mediului şi se intoarece sub forma de reziduuri inutile generate in cadrul proceselor economice. Deşeurile vor fi depozitate în zone receptoare, deoarece nu este posibila distrugerea lor totală. De fapt, partea care depăşeşte capacitatea de asimilare determină o acumulare, care cauzeaza modifi carea, deteriorarea, distrugerea resurselor de mediu (daune de mediu), aşa-numita “poluare fi zica”. Aceste daune aduse mediului, cel mai probabil vor produce efecte negative asupra terţilor, efecte pe care economiştii le numesc “poluare economica”, adică pierderi de bunăstare compensate (externalitati de mediu). Descriind relaţia de interdependenţă prin Bilantul de materiale, se argumentează modul în care economia este un subsistem al mediului iar mediul reprezintă limita naturală a oricarei iniţiative economice, sau limitările impuse de legile termodinamicii. Evaluarea economică şi socială pe scară largă precum şi starea de echilibru la nivel mondial ar trebui să fi e concepute astfel încât sa fi e îndeplinite necesităţile fi ecărei persoane de pe pământ, şi fi ecare sa aibe şanse egale in realizarea propriilor deziderate.

References - Boulding, K. E., 1966. The Economics of the Coming Spaceship Earth, in H. Jarrett (ed.), Environmental Quality in a Growing Economy, Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore. - Common M. and Perrings C., 1992. Towards an Ecological Economics of Sustainability, Ecological Economics 6, 7–34. - Cozzi T., Zamagni S., 1989. Economia Politica, Il Mulino, Bologna. - Daly H.E., 1991. Steady-State Economics, Earthscan, London. - Daly H.E, Cobb J., 1990. For the Common Good, Beacon Press, Boston. - Daly, H.E., 1990. Toward Some Operational Principles of Sustainable Development. Ecological economics 2, 1-6.


- Fischer S., Dornbush R., 1995. Macroeconomia, Il Mulino, Bologna. - Georgescu R., 1971. The Entropy Law and the Economic Process, Cambridge: Harvard University Press - Hartwick J., 1977. Intergenerational Equity and the Investing of Rents from Exhaustible Resources, American Economic Review, 67, December. - Malthus T.R., 1798. An essay on the principle of population, Johnson, Londra. - Meadowos H.D., Meadows D.L., Randers J., Beherens W., 1972. I limiti dello sviluppo, Mondadori, Milano. - Musu I., 2003. Introduzione all’Economia dell’Ambiente, Il Mulino, Bologna. - Ravera O., 1998. La Questione Ambientale alle Porte del Terzo Millennio, Gregoriana libreria editrice, Padova. - Solow R.M., 1974. Intergenerational Equity and exhaustible Resources, Review of Economic Studies, Symposium, pp. 29-46. - Solow R.M., 1956. A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 70, No. 1. (Feb.), pp. 65-94, published by The MIT Press. - Solow R.M., 1986. On the Intergenerational Allocation of Natural Resources, Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 88(1), pages 141-49. - Tietenberg T., 2006. Economia dell’Ambiente, McGraw-Hill, Milano. - Turner R.K., Pearce D.W., Bateman I., 2003. Economia Ambientale, Il Mulino, Bologna. - Varian Hal R., 1990. Microeconomia, Cafoscarina, Venezia.


SOME THEORIES OF ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY

PhD. Professor Irina-Virginia Dragulanescu University of Messina, Italy PhD. Natalia Dragulanescu

Abstract

The paper deals with the arguments with which the neoclassical have approached the problems of sustainability, giving life to that branch of political economy that studies the problems related to the use of natural resources and environmental externalities. Environmental Economics studies, insights and additions that bind knowledge economy with the application of economic theory to environmental problems seek to provide in this paper an comprehensive framework and as exhaustive as possible of speculations around the concept of sustainability. We highlight, also, how environmental aspects are processed within a defi ned perimeter of economic instruments to defend the neoclassical orthodoxy in front of the market failure and to support the undertaking of a path of development that is sustainable. Keywords: growth models, neoclassical approach, scarcity of resources, sustainability

1. The neoclassical sustainability of the growth

The neoclassical vision of economics (Cozzi T., Zamagni S., 1989, p. 733) on which are based the neo-liberal policies has as its stated goal the maximization of welfare (Varian Hal R., 1990, p. 505), identifi ed with the willingness to offer to the widest number of people greater opportunities for consumption. The neoclassical theory of growth (or development) considers the increase of production and, therefore, of disposable income in higher levels of consumption as a solution to poverty for progress and development. The neoclassical approach is based on the assumption that the capacity for self regulation (Tietenberg T., 2006, p. 8) of free markets and not bound, and technological advances are able to ensure capacity of substitutions endless between the various forms of capital, mitigating so, the constraints arising from the possible scarcity of resources, allow sustainable growth, a level of consumption does not decreasing over time. Within this theoretical framework, an essential point of reference is the Solow model (Solow R.M., 1956). Economic development (as economic


growth) is identifi ed with a level of consumption does not decreasing over time and its sustainability takes the form of constraints on the use of resources according to the rule of Hartwick-Solow (Solow R.M., 1974). The rule provides that if royalty or user cost (Tietenberg T., 2006, p. 60) generated by the extraction, according to an effi cient plan, of non-renewable resources are fully saved and reinvested in renewable capital, the level of resulting investment would be suffi cient to provide a value of the capital stock (economic) at least constant over time, making it possible product levels and consumption of non-decreasing (ie, the sustainability of development). Thus becomes almost irrelevant the fact that is limited the availability of natural resources also non-renewable. In fact, it is possible that consumption levels remain non-decreasing with exhaustible resources that decrease (Musu I., 2003, p. 156), if you do so that the capital stock remains unchanged at least, guaranteeing in any period an adequate investment in man-made capital. The crucial assumption underlying these models is the perfect substitutability between natural capital (including both renewable and non-renewable resources) and other forms of capital (both physical capital and human capital man-made) (Hartwick J., 1977). In the thought of Solow, capital has diminishing marginal productivity, which implies that at some point the growth stop, in other words, the per capita consumption remains constant. Only the technical progress, taken as exogenous to the model (Fischer S., Dornbush R., 1995, p.350), may counterbalance this trend allowing that the function of production increases and the growth does not stop. The endogenous growth models, even if they share the basic philosophy of Solow, removing both the assumptions of capital productivity decreasing, and exogeneity of technical progress. The removal of these assumptions leads both to deny that in the future we have the process of convergence between the growth rates of the various countries, and to predict the tendency to continue expanding: there are no implicit mechanisms of stop (it was, in fact, the diminishing marginal productivity of capital, which has led to the arrest of growth unless it was offset by exogenous technical progress).

2. Revision of the neoclassical view

The neoclassical approach offers, for an economic system considered as closed and linear, a model of continuous growth. The endogenous growth models, even if they share the basic philosophy of Solow, removing both the assumptions of decreasing productivity of capital and exogeneity of technical progress. The removal of these assumptions leads both to deny that in the future we have the process of convergence between the growth rates of the


various countries, and to predict the tendency to continue expanding: there are no implicit mechanisms of stop (it was, in fact, the diminishing marginal productivity of capital, which has led to the arrest of growth unless it was offset by exogenous technical progress). In addition, the heightened interest for the market equilibrium, believed to be able to ensure economic effi ciency (Tietenberg T., 2006, p. 27) and the maximization of well-being, has obscured almost completely the study of long-term, eliminating thus any “pessimistic” consideration, typical of classical studies (Cozzi T., Zamagni S., 1989, p. 35 et seq.). For classical economists like Malthus, Ricardo, Mill, Marx, very clear the economic activity was conditioned by the environment, they believed in the role of the market as a indispensable basis for economic growth. The market would have, in fact, distributed merits and effi ciency generating wealth for all. An optimistic vision well evident in studies of Adam Smith and many other great economists of the late 1700s-early 1800s. This theoretical conclusion should not draw of deception, however, the confi dence in the market by the classics classical stood only in a short-term context. In the long term the economy would still be found in stationary state coinciding with the mere subsistence level by all. The reason for this negative view was full awareness of natural resources as scarce and limited entity, or as a fi nite set of elements. Economic growth in the long term would have reached the limit of the set of natural resources, causing a brake on growth. The point of view “pessimistic” of the classics in the long term is well expressed in the studies of Thomas Malthus and David Ricardo. Malthus and Ricardo watched the constraints imposed by the environment in terms of scarcity of fertile land for cultivation.

The economic system: a closed system and linearFigure 1

Market of goods and services

Market of production factors

HouseholdsFirms

Source: our elaboration on Turner K., Pearce W., Bateman I., p.28


The traditional neoclassical economists considering the economic system as a closed system and linear (Turner K., Pearce W., Bateman I., p.28) (Fig. 1) do not take into account, unlike the classical, the hypothesis of a binding connection between the economic system and the environment. The environment has only instrumental value, there is to be shaped and resources to be used in the production function must adapt to meet the market equilibrium. The unlimited exploitation of natural resources is commonly accepted as the price to pay for fuelling economic growth and provide employment. The low attention to long-term considerations, driven by excessive confi dence in the Pareto effi ciency of the market mechanism and to technological has prevented from considering natural resources such as a limit of growth. The market has always solved the scarcity through price changes, encouraging research and technological progress. The blind trust towards the market and technological progress favored investment policies without taking into account environmental aspects. An optimistic view, the neoclassical, that during the twentieth century led to the construction of large environmental destruction. It should be noted the particular historical context in which they lived neoclassical economists. The world was full of positive stimuli, progress marching rhythms ever higher while they were still far from seeing the negative effects that would produce. The world was still just an empty territory to be conquered according to a logic of “Far West” (Boulding K., 1966). The neoclassical growth model it worked until the company had agricultural structures or pre-industrial (Ravera O., 1998, p. 39), with population density and low productions and disseminated; the prevailing culture, especially in agricultural areas, was to reuse and recycling of material resources; process residues economic activities were taken up and disposed of in the natural cycle of self-purifi cation and there was a substantial balance between man, production, consumption and the environment. With the growth of the population, its concentration in urban areas of increasing size, with the increase in production and consumption, it has been a strong use of natural resources and high production of waste, causing rupture of the initial equilibrium and the cycle that occurred spontaneously in nature. The optimistic view of the economy growing that characterized most of the 20th century began to enter a crisis in the ‘60s, when, with the fi rst phenomenon of smog, scarcity and pollution, the idea that economic growth driven by progress was unlimited collided with the evidence of the environmental consequences, of the pollution and the impact on human health (Carson R., 1962; Commoner B., 1971).


3. The economic system as a subsystem open and circular

The excessive trust towards perfectly substitutable resources through market mechanisms and technological progress, led to the general assumption neoclassical to clash with the fi nite reality of the natural environment and to become aware that human communities are part of a well-wider, which also includes those, so to say, non-human (Daly H., Cobb J., 1990). From this point of view, the traditional economy, the “real” (ie, the economic system made up of institutions, activities intended to produce and exchange goods and services using scarce resources to be allocated more effi ciently among alternative uses to satisfy human needs (Turner K., Pearce W., Bateman I., 2003, p.27.) should be considered only as a part of a larger economy, the so-called “extended”, which supports the entire global fabric of life: a kind of economy that takes into account the interdependent relationship between the environment and the economy. In the years ‘60s, therefore, you begin to recognize that there is a relationship of interdependence between economics and environment (Georgescu R., 1971) and to see the real economy as a subsystem open and circular which can work only with the support of its ecological foundation. It is, however, a system in continuous growth inserted within a larger system but fi nite, non-increasing, closed at the entrance of new matter, open only to solar energy. These aspects, taken over by Daly last twenty years, had previously been supervised by Boulding (Boulding K., 1966) in his famous essay “The Economics of the Coming Spaceship Earth”. In this paper are described the necessary changes to economic science that from “cowboy economy”, as pioneers in a world yet to conquer, in which the limited resources is not perceived, must work towards “spaceman” economy. Spaceship, of course, is a circular system where you need to concentrate our efforts in the recycling of materials, waste reduction, maintenance of exhaustible sources of energy and in the exploitation of renewable energy sources such as solar (Turner K., Pearce W., Bateman I., 2003, p.20). The synthesis work of Boulding is formalized in the materials balance models with interrelationships between the economic system and the environment (Fig. 2).


The economic system as a subsystem open and circular. A materials balance model

Figure 2

Solar Energy

Input stream of new energy into the environment

Environment: matter and energy useful

return flow from the economic system

Residue that is not used: - residual material

useless, ie waste- scattered energy,

dissipated (exhaust gas, gas at low temperature)

unnecessary waste by recycling

Input stream into the economic system

Recycling

Residual useful

Process residues

Economic System: a set of processes of extraction, processing, production and consumption of raw materials and energy useful

Source: our elaboration

In this model the economic system is open and circular, characterized by a set of extraction processes of matter and energy from the environment, then basic processing, production and consumption. Each of these processes makes at the end of its residues by now no longer usable in the environment, in its receptor bodies. Such accounting shall be governed by the fi rst and second law of thermodynamics (Musu, 2003, p.14) that highlight the environmental constraints that the system must be taken into account.

4. The modern neoclassical

When in the 60’s the obvious consequences of the logic of “cowboy economy” rather than by “spaceman” fuelled the debate on the environmental and social limits to economic growth, in the literature were highlighting two positions: the neo-Malthusian and neoclassical resulting from revision of its nucleus. It was, in fact, revised its hard core, were called into question the critical points, like the blind trust towards the market, the logic of equilibrium


prices, the potential of technological progress, the ability of the system to ensure maximum growth. In a nutshell, were accepted the main criticism of the neoclassical theory pure to save its own orthodoxy. New study elements became part of the theories, just think to the dynamic effi ciency review that includes the “E” variable (Turner K., Pearce W., Bateman I., 2003, p. 106), recognized the importance of the externalities, the costs of pollution and the need to internalize “external costs” in the private sector. These aspects put in crisis the market further and its ability to achieve optimal balance, so that there was talk of “market failure” and the need to address these public intervention. The decision-making rule of Cost-Benefi t Analysis model, functional to an intertemporal allocation of resources is socially effi cient (dynamic effi ciency), must be corrected to include any Benefi ts and/or Costs that may result from environmental changes that the project, or the policy measure under evaluation imply. In order therefore that a project or a policy measure is adopted it is necessary that the algebraic sum of present values of non-environmental benefi ts, non-environmental costs and net value of environmental change is positive.

5. The neo-Malthusians

The close relationship that links population growth, economic growth, use of resources and capacity to assimilate, led many economists to argue that the only sustainable path development was characterized by economic growth and population anything, the deliberate creation of a situation of “steady state”, before arriving at a situation of absolute physical scarcity of resources (Daly H., 1977). Since the publication of Daly gave noted that its main merit was that it would bring the attention on the limits of nature and subordination to critical review of the concept of indefi nite neoclassical growth. In subsequent years the author focuses his analysis on the differences between growth and development and on the purely quantitative character of the fi rst one than qualitative of second. Proposing this distinction comes to talk of “development without growth” as the only possible path of development that can take into account the biophysical limits that nature imposes on human activities (hence the proposal for exceeding the GDP because it is considered merely indicator of growth and not of the development). In this perspective, Daly speaks of steady state economy to be achieved through: i. birth control (a kind of permits market of birth), ii. maintaining the level of entropy below the limits of regeneration systems; iii. redistribution of constant stock of wealth within a constant population. The most famous expression of this inescapable conclusion, is bound up in what is defi ned as the “Malthusian point of view” (Malthus, 1909), contained in “The Limits to


Growth” (Meadows D.L., Randers J., Beherens W., 1972 and 1981). In 1968 Italian Economist Aurelio Peccei created a cultural center named Club of Rome whose fi rst report published in 1972 was just “The Limits of Growth”. The report data were derived using a technique known as “systems dynamics” and the construction of a computer model to simulate the likely outcomes of the global economy in the future. The study concluded that, although the known reserves of mineral and energy were multiplied by fi ve (due to new discoveries and technologies), the exponential nature of growth would lead to the depletion of much of resources within less than a hundred years at rates to annual growth of consumption. This would lead to the collapse of the foundation of the entire modern society, if there were no changes in important physical - economic - social relationships that had traditionally guided the world development. In the document drawn up by Meadows and other Boston scholars is clearly expressed the neo-Malthusian position (Turner K., Pearce W., Bateman I., 2003, p. 228), the conviction of the impossibility of continuing economic growth at infi nity in limited environmental conditions due to the inevitable progressive exhaustion of resources of the planet. The same viewpoint was also more recent accession (Daly, Cobb, 1990). Despite the general theoretical consensus, there were criticisms of the setting Meadows. The catastrophic conclusions contained in “The Limits of Growth” were considered excessive and false by modern neoclassical (Tietenberg, 2006, p. 8) on the basis of a series of arguments: Technological progress increases the productivity of resources and thus to ensure that available resources will last longer and longer. Therefore, it is believed that the economy will evolve in such a way that economic growth reduces more and more its environmental effects. Technological progress capable of making more effi cient use of resources and reduce the creation of harmful residues, then steps in on the materials balance to achieve this separation between the economic and the environment. Given the laws of thermodynamics, a complete separation is impossible. The economic activity will always use a certain amount of resources, but due to higher productivity, could decrease the quantity used more and more per unit of product, the impact on the environment may gradually decline. New reserves are discovered all the time: the idea of a “fi xed amount” is an illusion. We are able to keep under control the amount of slag reintroduced into the environment by recycling the materials and withdrawing the gases before they leave the economic system.


We can replace polluting technologies with less dangerous ones. For market laws of supply and demand, when a resource becomes scarce raises the price of supply and demand contracts, that is, inducing individuals to use more conservative (incentive for conservation) and move to other more accessible (incentives for substitution). Even if the population is growing in absolute terms, in many countries the rate of growth is shrinking because people realize the benefi ts of a small generic family (Turner K., Pearce W., Bateman I., 2003, p. 54).

Final remarks

The topic analyzed is very timely and has played in recent years considerable importance as a result of the increasing attention given to environmental protection by national and supranational law, in view of the considerable social costs resulting from environmental degradation and the role of “tax shift” which are known as Pigovian taxes. From the optimistic view of the neoclassical theory of growth, in order to deepen the relationship between the economic system and the environmental system, poses as a basis the assumption of capacity of self regulation of free markets and unconstrained. It is, therefore, of self-limiting process generated by a negative feedback on a problem of lack of resources. Any decrease in the availability of a resource results in an increase in price which will lead to the gradual abandonment of its use, at least in those productions where it may be replaced by another at a lower cost. In this way, the demand drops to levels compatible with the availability of the resource in question. Simultaneously, the scarcity of the resource triggers a process of technological research to fi nd new technical solutions for the attainment of the same production targets, using different materials. Both reactions (increased price and striving for alternative solution) tend to reduce the magnitude of the initial problem. Among the scholars who deepen and pose critics to marginalist approach (Georgescu R., 1971) suggest that economic science should take greater account of the laws of nature by demonstrating real irreversibility of materials and energy implications of production processes. Rejects the depiction of the economic process as separate from the environment in which it takes place, suggesting the physical connection with the terrestrial system subjected to gradual increase of entropy. The environment is a fi nite set. The fl ow of matter/energy that the system takes from the environment must eventually return, overall, to the environment and then returns in the form of useless residues generated by economic processes. Waste that will be deposited in receiving bodies because there is no way their absolute destruction. In fact, the part that exceeds the capacity of assimilation leads to a build-up that causes an


alteration, deterioration, destruction of environmental resources (environmental damage), the so-called “physical pollution”. These environmental damage will most likely produce negative effects on third parties, effects that economists defi ne “economic pollution”, ie welfare losses not compensated (environmental externalities). Describing the relationship of interdependence through the materials balance, it is argued how the economy is a subset of the environment and the environment represents the natural limit to any economic initiative, or the limitations imposed by the laws of thermodynamics. An economic and social assessment widespread and that the global equilibrium State should be designed so that the needs of each person on earth are met, and each has equal opportunity to realize their human potential.

References

- Boulding, K. E., 1966. The Economics of the Coming Spaceship Earth, in H. Jarrett (ed.), Environmental Quality in a Growing Economy, Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore. - Common M. and Perrings C., 1992. Towards an Ecological Economics of Sustainability, Ecological Economics 6, 7–34. - Cozzi T., Zamagni S., 1989. Economia Politica, Il Mulino, Bologna. - Daly H.E., 1991. Steady-State Economics, Earthscan, London. - Daly H.E, Cobb J., 1990. For the Common Good, Beacon Press, Boston. - Daly, H.E., 1990. Toward Some Operational Principles of Sustainable Development. Ecological economics 2, 1-6. - Fischer S., Dornbush R., 1995. Macroeconomia, Il Mulino, Bologna. - Georgescu R., 1971. The Entropy Law and the Economic Process, Cambridge: Harvard University Press - Hartwick J., 1977. Intergenerational Equity and the Investing of Rents from Exhaustible Resources, American Economic Review, 67, December. - Malthus T.R., 1798. An essay on the principle of population, Johnson, Londra. - Meadowos H.D., Meadows D.L., Randers J., Beherens W., 1972. I limiti dello sviluppo, Mondadori, Milano. - Musu I., 2003. Introduzione all’Economia dell’Ambiente, Il Mulino, Bologna. - Ravera O., 1998. La Questione Ambientale alle Porte del Terzo Millennio, Gregoriana libreria editrice, Padova. - Solow R.M., 1974. Intergenerational Equity and exhaustible Resources, Review of Economic Studies, Symposium, pp. 29-46. - Solow R.M., 1956. A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 70, No. 1. (Feb.), pp. 65-94, published by The MIT Press. - Solow R.M., 1986. On the Intergenerational Allocation of Natural Resources, Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 88(1), pages 141-49. - Tietenberg T., 2006. Economia dell’Ambiente, McGraw-Hill, Milano. - Turner R.K., Pearce D.W., Bateman I., 2003. Economia Ambientale, Il Mulino, Bologna. - Varian Hal R., 1990. Microeconomia, Cafoscarina, Venezia.


New Trends in European Companies’ Business Models PhD Professor Georgeta ILIE “Dimitrie Cantemir” Christian University

Abstract

Companies constantly reconsider and reconfi gure their business models in order to create value and generate growth. They also reassess the price-performance correlation and new levels of capital effi ciency. The new business models are frequently needed to provide goods at affordable prices through the adaptation of packaging strategies, pricing strategies, the product itself, and by helping to sustain fi nancially the demand. In the context of current fi nancial and economic diffi culties, it reveals the inclusive business models that provide goods and services to poor people and also create employment. The paper tries to emphasize ways in which business models are evolving, and how to determine the right model for companies. In the same time, it also seeks to highlight trends in the development of new business models in the European countries which creates basic economic activities, giving people facing social and economic problems access to products and services that meet their needs. Keywords: value creation for business, inclusive business models, start-up incubators, fi nancial diffi culties

***

1. Introduction

Progressively more competitive, fast changing and increasingly uncertain economic environment make the business decisions complex and diffi cult. Companies are tackled with new information and communication technologies, shorter product life cycles, global markets and stronger competition. In this aggressive business environment fi rms should be able to manage multiple distribution channels, complicated supply chains, expensive IT implementations, strategic partnerships and still stay fl exible enough to answer to market changes.


In recent years, an increasing number of authors have started to highlight the importance of changes in “business models”. The business model means a lot of different things to different people. The best-known description is the following: “An innovation is the implementation of a new or signifi cantly improved product (good or service), or process, a new marketing method, or a new organisational method in business practices, workplace organisation or external relations” (OECD, 2005). More exactly, a business model means the rationality of how an organization creates, delivers and captures value. These words are specifi c at the whole business. Today this description is in use in a lot of kind of start-up incubators. In addition, it is looking at how to put together the product or service, how to attract customers and then how to get paid. So in a kind of traditional retail setting, a business model is about how to put together the product, how to create something, and how to set up the store. And then how to get paid is how to attract customers and how to get the money for the products or service. If all of that generates profi t at the end then we have a viable business model.

2. Developing Unique and Creative Business Models

A model is a standard or example used for replication or comparison. In diffi cult fi nancial times, starting a business or launching a new product to the market could be the best suited for enterprise business model. This makes up the basic framework on how to create and provide value to the consumers and consequently, generate revenue. Numerous companies have found success and profi ts by simply developing unique and creative business models. Currently, there are many existing business models that can be studied and adapted. Each industry would usually have its own prevailing business model. By simply scanning the environment, doing research on the target market and studying the internal resources, one can easily fi nd the best business infrastructure that would guarantee optimum cash-fl ow. Over the years, business models have been created to provide more sophisticated means to generate revenue for the company. There is no defi nitive list of business models that one can choose from although there are those which have been proven both effi cient and profi table. Some of these are the subscription model, the bait and hook, the auction business model, multi-level marketing and the premium service business model. Mainly, a business model is a simplifi ed description of how a company will run with respect to maximizing revenue. It can pertain to the core operation of the business or just a part of the enterprise such as specifi c


product or service offerings. In general, conceptualization of a business model is done by synthesizing nine different aspects of the business and analyzing these data to come up with best framework that will provide optimum profi ts. By sincerely considering these building blocks and focusing to enhance one or two aspects, a business can come up with an effective infrastructure to fi nd success. 1. The nine elements of building a business model are recognised: 2. Value Proposition – what are you offering to your customers? 3. Customer Segment – to whom specifi cally are you offering your

product or service? 4. Distribution Channel – how are you planning to reach your

customers? 5. Customer Relationship – how does your target market perceive

your company or product? 6. Core Capacities – how well can you execute various business

models? 7. Value Confi guration – is the business model benefi cial to both the

business and the customers? 8. Partner Network – how can your business alliances contribute to

the framework? 9. Revenue Streams – how will the business model create profi t? 10. Cost Structure – how much will it cost for you to execute the

business model? (Osterwalder, 2004). Designing a successful framework often leads to a variety of innovations that drives businesses to stand out in their fi elds. Moreover, coming up with such systems help provide effective strategies to reach the target consumers and expected performances.

3. Business Model Innovation and Value Creation

Nowadays business model innovation is regarded as a major resource of competitive advantage and an important driver of value creation and growth. The opening of markets and constantly accelerating global competition are leading to circumstances in which competitive advantage based purely on product advantage will be only short-term. The way products are created, delivered, and maintained will make the greatest difference in the future. How companies do business will frequently be more signifi cant than what they do. As a result, companies will have to constantly reconsider and reconfi gure their business models. Business model innovation needs to be turned into a systematic process that allows organisations to perform it with operational excellence and to replicate it successfully many times.


In the process of business model innovation, the challenge for companies is to fi nd stability and reliability with change and innovation. Not including a systemic approach that ensure that all involved internal and external parties work ‘in concert’ to develop and apply one reliable business model that can infl uence existing assets and that is aligned with the markets that won’t be possible. Organisations that start to think about to work on business model innovation and to institutionalize the process rapidly realize that they have to fi nd new answers for a variety of questions and have to fi ght with many challenges. The International Institute of Enterprise – Heidelberg (IIOE), based in Heidelberg, Germany, is an independent European think tank dedicated to develop and promote concepts and practices for enterprise management and leadership that facilitate entrepreneurial value creation and sustainable enterprise development. This international institute hosts a number of events among which stands the European Business Model Innovation Forum. The purposes of this forum are: To infl uence the collective experience and intelligence of a group of professionals – cross-company, cross-industry, and cross-country – to accelerate the process of developing a ‘best practice business model innovation process guideline’; and To facilitate learning and new insights help the participating companies to successfully implement business model innovation in their organisations. Particularly this guideline should allow organisations to avoid the cost of failure and implement change with no putting in danger the existing business, to generate real differentiation and to beat competitors, to overcome resistance to change and increase speed, to boost productivity and reduce down time, and to determine the impact of change. (IIOE 2012)

4. INCLUSIVE BUSINESS MODELS - INNOVATIVE WAYS TO WORK WITH LOW-INCOME PEOPLE LIVING AT THE

BASE OF THE PYRAMID

In the context of current fi nancial and economic diffi culties, businesses around the world are fi nding innovative ways to work with low-income people living at the base of the pyramid (BoP), working with them as suppliers, distributors, retailers, or customers. These fi rms are called inclusive businesses. The term inclusive business was invented by the World Business Council for Sustainable Development in 2005. It refers to sustainable business


solutions that go beyond philanthropy and expand access to goods, services, and livelihood opportunities for low-income communities in commercially viable ways. Inclusive business models are defi ned as businesses that provide goods and services to poor people, but also include poor people in value chains by providing employment. To deal with hunger and malnutrition, new models are needed. Markets must be made to work to reduce hunger. These kinds of business models will often need support from governments and donors. Governments need to create platforms to bring together all relevant players and policies that create level playing fi elds and environments conducive to inclusive businesses. (EDD 2012) Inclusive business models can benefi t companies by enhancing their reputations and improving employee morale. (EDD, 2012)

Inclusive business models increase the access to goods, services, and livelihood opportunities for those at the base of the global economic pyramid in commercially viable, scalable ways. There have been some notable successes in creating inclusive business models, but there are limitations. Businesses need to be profi table. A growing number of business and development partners is driving a new movement in development, which aims to redefi ne people living at the base of the economic pyramid – as valuable economic partners for business – as both talented and resilient business entrepreneurs, and value aware consumers. For companies, inclusive business models are opportunities for market growth and competitive advantage. For development agencies, inclusive business represents a powerful approach to achieving their goal of inclusive growth and development. (IFC, 2013) Globally, there are currently 3.7 billion people who have been excluded from formal markets. Base of the pyramid (BoP) comprises of a population who earn an average income of 8 USD a day or less. With an annual total income of 2.3 trillion USD a year, BoP is a highly diversifi ed, fast growing consumer market. Currently it is made up of an underutilized productive sector with an untapped source of entrepreneurial energy. Through businesses understanding and utilizing its potential, engaging BoP is increasingly recognized as a key driver for both human development and value creation for business. There is possibility to better understand, develop and maintain effective cross sector and multi-stakeholder approaches that partner with BoP groups in a mutually inclusive value chain. (European CSR, 2012)


Developing an inclusive business model that addresses the particular needs of people living at the base of the pyramid is an accomplishment. Scaling that model and replicating it in new markets is a challenge. By recognizing businesses that have already succeeded in developing innovative, scalable, and fi nancially sustainable inclusive business models, the G20 provides a global platform for all businesses to learn from successful leaders in the growing fi eld of inclusive business, and enables these leaders to come together and develop linkages with other inclusive businesses. (Nelson, Ishikawa, Geaneotes, 2009) A growing number of companies can point to inclusive business models of their own, which integrate low-income people into corporate value chains either as producers, entrepreneurs and employees, or as consumers. While recognizing competitive realities and pressures, there is an opportunity for leading companies to develop more of these pioneering business-led approaches to poverty alleviation, and as they do so, to learn from each other what works, and to mobilize other companies to get involved. Similarly, governments and development experts can play vital roles in supporting the business models and value chains that demonstrate measurable business and development impact, and that have the potential of reaching sustainability and scale. Most signifi cantly, all of these players will need to become more effective at learning from and working with the millions of men and women living in low-income urban and rural communities - the majority of who are not asking for charity, but rather seeking opportunity. (Nelson, Ishikawa, Geaneotes, 2009) In essence, inclusive business models try to fi nd synergies between development goals and the company’s core business operations. Inclusive models can deliver higher socio-economic value for communities, and presents a stimulating opportunity for the private sector because it is excellent for business. A variety of commercial returns–market entry, market share, secure supply chains, product line innovation, and competitive advantage–all help to build market value. (EDD 2012) Inclusive business leads to the creation of employment opportunities for low-income communities – either directly or through companies’ value chains as suppliers, distributors, retailers and service providers. Alternatively, companies can develop ways to supply affordable products and services to meet basic needs for food, water, sanitation, housing and health care. Or they can develop innovative business models to enhance access to key development enablers such as energy, communications, fi nancing and insurance. (European CSR, 2012)


5. Start-Up Incubators and the Opportunities for Entrepreneurs

Where anywhere some see limits, entrepreneurs see opportunities. More and more entrepreneurs are hearing about the successful graduates and investors are in line behind a few well-known start-up incubators. A start-up incubator is a collaborative program designed to help new start-ups succeed. Incubators help entrepreneurs solve some of the problems commonly associated with running a start-up by providing workspace, seed funding, mentoring, and training. The sole purpose of a start-up incubator is to help entrepreneurs grow their business. As a defi nition, a business or start-up incubator is a company, university, or other organization which provides resources to nurture young companies, usually for a share of the equity, hoping to capitalize on their success, or at least strengthen the local economy. Incubators operate under many different models. In the current economic and fi nancial diffi culties, the questions are how to determine the most suitable operational model for existing and new incubators and which are the appropriate strategic and tactical decisions that determine the choice of model used. Nowadays, defi ning the incubator model means answering the strategic and tactical questions that provide the basis for planning the incubator. Defi ning an incubator model helps deal with decisions such as the deciding the focus of the incubator, the region, purpose and any other issues. The process of taking the decision for creation an incubator consists of two phases: the Strategic Decision and the Tactical Decision. Within the fi rst phase ”Strategic Decision”, the following aspects are determined: Purpose. Defi ne whether the incubator will be a profi t-seeking group or a non-profi t association. Focus. Defi ne what the supported companies’ activities are: traditional, technological, etc. Operational Model. The operational model “determines the way in which the incubator will be organized and operate”. The operational model of an incubator “dictates its structure, its scope of services it provides, its funding opportunities, and its level of external alliances”. Area. The place choice for the incubator depends on which focus is chosen and the operational model to be implemented. Stage of the Enterprises. The support and services offered to the incubated companies depend directly on the development stage of these


businesses (or what they are). Within the second phase ”Tactical Decision”, the following aspects are concluded: Legal Status. The incubator may have its own legal status or may be tied to an existing institution. Documents. For an incubator to be operable depends on a number of different documents, such as statutes, internal regulations, contracts with the different companies etc. Organizational Structure. Must defi ne the authority and duties of the different functions that exist within the incubator.

6. Conclusions

Countries’ economic diffi culties come at a time of increasing fi nancial pressure to meet various social challenges. Business model innovation is thus essential if countries and fi rms are to recover from the economic downturn and thrive in today’s highly competitive and connected global economy. (OECD, 2010) It is a great mechanism for development and for addressing social and global challenges. Based on the analysis of international good practices and the insights gained from various realized business model designs in the European market, four factors that contribute to success can be recognized:Target-group oriented design. Good practices show that offering products and services specifi cally geared towards a well-defi ned group of customers are particularly attractive. Simple products or services and simple and transparent pricing models. Sustainable business models.Collaboration with partners. In order to cover the necessary know-how, increased collaboration among various experts is required.

Bybliography

- Nelson, Jane; Ishikawa, Eriko; Geaneotes, Alexis (2009). Developing inclusive business models, Harvard Kennedy School and International Finance Corporation, available on http://www.hks.harvard.edu/ - Osterwalder, Alexander (2004). The business model ontology - a proposition in a design science approach, these, Universite de Lausanne, Ecole des Hautes Etudes Commerciales, available on http://www.hec.unil.ch/ - EDD (2012). Inclusive business models, published oby European Development Days (EDD), Brussels, October 2012, available on http://eudevdays.eu/ - EDD (2012) Supporting inclusive and sustainable growth for human development, Brussels, October 2012, available on http://eudevdays.eu/


- European CSR (2013). Inclusive Business Models, published by The European business network for CSR, available on http://www.csreurope.org/ - G20 (2013). The Challenge recognizes successful businesses with an innovative way of working with individuals at the base of the pyramid, published by G20 Challenge on Inclusive Business Innovation, available on http://www.g20challenge.com/ - IFC (2013). Inclusive Business Models Group, published by International Finance Corporation, available on http://www1.ifc.org/ - IIOE (2012). The European Business Model Innovation Forum, published by International Institute of Enterprise – Heidelberg (IIOE), available on http://www.iioe.eu/ebmif.html - OECD (2005). Oslo Manual – Guidelines for Collecting and Interpreting Innovation Data, 2005, published by OECD, Paris, available on http://www.oecd.org/ - OECD (2010). Innovation to strengthen growth and address global and social challenges, published by OECD, Paris, available on http://www.oecd.org/


Profi t Forecast Model Using Monte Carlo Simulation in Excel Petru BALOGH Pompiliu GOLEA Valentin INCEU „Dimitrie Cantemir” Christian University

Abstract

Profi t forecast is very important for any company. The purpose of this study is to provide a method to estimate the profi t and the probability of obtaining the expected profi t. Monte Carlo methods are stochastic techniques--meaning they are based on the use of random numbers and probability statistics to investigate problems. Monte Carlo simulation furnishes the decision-maker with a range of possible outcomes and the probabilities they will occur for any choice of action. Our example of Monte Carlo simulation in Excel will be a simplifi ed profi t forecast model. Each step of the analysis will be described in detail. The input data for the case presented: the number of leads per month, the percentage of leads that result in sales, , the cost of a single lead, the profi t per sale and fi xed cost, allow obtaining profi t and associated probabilities of achieving. Keywords: Profi t forecast; Monte Carlo simulation; Probabilities.

1. Introduction

Monte Carlo simulation is a method for iteratively evaluating a deterministic model using sets of random numbers as inputs. This method is often used when the model is complex, nonlinear, or involves more than just a couple uncertain parameters. A simulation can typically involve over 10,000 evaluations of the model, a task which in the past was only practical using super computers. Monte Carlo simulation furnishes the decision-maker with a range of possible outcomes and the probabilities they will occur for any choice of action. It shows the extreme possibilities—the outcomes of going for broke and for the most conservative decision—along with all possible consequences for middle-of-the-road decisions.


The technique was fi rst used by scientists working on the atom bomb; it was named for Monte Carlo, the Monaco resort town renowned for its casinos. Since its introduction in World War II, Monte Carlo simulation has been used to model a variety of physical and conceptual systems. The Monte Carlo method is just one of many methods for analyzing uncertainty propagation, where the goal is to determine how random variation, lack of knowledge, or error affects the sensitivity, performance, or reliability of the system that is being modeled. Monte Carlo simulation is categorized as a sampling method because the inputs are randomly generated from probability distributions to simulate the process of sampling from an actual population. So, we try to choose a distribution for the inputs that most closely matches data we already have, or best represents our current state of knowledge. The data generated from the simulation can be represented as probability distributions (or histograms) or converted to error bars, reliability predictions, tolerance zones, and confi dence intervals. (Figure 1).

Schematic showing the principal of stochastic uncertainty propagationFigure 1

x1 x2................................. xn

Model

f(x)

y2 y1

yn


The steps in Monte Carlo simulation corresponding to the uncertainty propagation shown in Figure 1 are fairly simple, and can be easily implemented in Excel for simple models. All we need to do is follow the fi ve simple steps listed below: Step 1: Create a parametric model, y = f(x1, x2, ..., xn). Step 2: Generate a set of random inputs, xi1, xi2, ..., xin. Step 3: Evaluate the model and store the results as yi. Step 4: Repeat steps 2 and 3 for i = 1 to n. Step 5: Analyze the results using histograms, summary statistics, confi dence intervals, etc.

2. Profi t Forecast Model Using Monte Carlo Simulation in Excel

The Scenario: Company ABC wants to know how profi table it will be to market their new gadget, realizing there are many uncertainties associated with market size, expenses, and revenue. The Method: Use a Monte Carlo Simulation to estimate profi t and evaluate risk. Step 1: Creating the Model We are going to use a top-down approach to create the sales forecast model, starting with:

Profi t = Income-Expenses

Both income and expenses are uncertain parameters, but we aren’t going to stop here, because one of the purposes of developing a model is to try to break the problem down into more fundamental quantities. Ideally, we want all the inputs to be independent. We’ll say that Income comes solely from the number of sales (S) multiplied by the profi t per sale (P) resulting from an individual purchase of a gadget, so Income = S*P. The profi t per sale takes into account the sale price, the initial cost to manufacturer or purchase the product wholesale, and other transaction fees (credit cards, shipping, etc.). For our purposes, we’ll say the P may fl uctuate between 50 ron and 80 ron. We could just leave the number of sales as one of the primary variables, but for this example, Company ABC generates sales through purchasing leads. The number of sales per month is the number of leads per month (L) multiplied by the conversion rate (R) (the percentage of leads that result in sales). So our fi nal equation for Income is:

Income = L . R . P


We’ll consider the Expenses to be a combination of fi xed overhead (H) plus the total cost of the leads. For this model, the cost of a single lead (C) varies between 0,20 ron and 0,80 ron. Based upon some market research, Company ABC expects the number of leads per month (L) to vary between 1000 and 2000. Our fi nal model for Company ABC’s profi t forecast is:

Profi t = L . R . P - (H + L . C) where:

Y = Profits X1 = L X2 = CX3 = RX4 = P

Notice that H is also part of the equation, but we are going to treat it as a constant in this example. The inputs to the Monte Carlo simulation are just the uncertain parameters (Xi). This is not a comprehensive treatment of modeling methods, but I used this example to demonstrate an important concept in uncertainty propagation, namely correlation. After breaking Income and Expenses down into more fundamental and measurable quantities, we found that the number of leads (L) affected both income and expenses. Therefore, income and expenses are not independent. We could probably break the problem down even further, but we won’t in this example. We’ll assume that L, R, P, H, and C are all independent. It is easier to decompose a model into independent variables (when possible) than to try to mess with correlation between random inputs.The input values are presented in table 1.

Input valuesTable 1

Input Values (input) Nominal Min Max

Leads per Month (L) 1500 1000 2000 Cost Per Lead (C) 0,50 0,20 0,80

Conversion Rate (R) 3,0% 1,0% 5,0% Profi t per Sale (P) 65,00 50,00 80,00


Step2: Generate a set of random inputs using Excel sheet, (Data-Data Analysis- Random number generation), fi gure 2.

Monte Carlo model using Excel seetFigure 2

Step 5: Analyze the results Analyzing the results obtained by random generation of each data value input limits and calculating profi t from using relation (1) implies: - Calculating the main statistical indicators, Table 2; - Grouping profi t equal ranges, Figure 3; - Determine the cumulative probability, Figure 4; - Determination of specifi c indicators descriptive statistics Table 3; - Determine the probability of obtaining a profi t, Table 4.


Table 2Summary Statistics

Sample Size (n): 5000

MEAN: 678,51 STDEV: 1009,34

Histogram of Monte Carlo Simulation ResultsFigure 3

Profit [Ron]

Count


Cumulativ probability depending on profi tFigure 4

Cumulative probability

Table 3Descriptive statisticsMean 384,6153846

Standard Error 100,1606107

Median 268

Mode 83

Standard Deviation 361,1342175

Sample Variance 130417,9231

Kurtosis -1,619555088

Skewness 0,393009744

Minimum 0

Maximum 939

Sum 5000


Table 4Probabilities

Pr( y > 0 ): 71,46%

Pr( y < 0 ) = 28,54% Pr( y > 500 ) = 52,70% Pr( y > 1000 ) = 35,26%

Pr( 500<y <4000)= 52,60%

3. Conclusions

Monte Carlo simulation is easy to apply and are often used to calculate the value of companies, to evaluate investments in projects at a business unit or corporate level, or to evaluate fi nancial derivatives, in our case the profi t.Unlike traditional methods of profi t determination, Monte Carlo simulation comes with additional informations regarding the probability of achieving a profi t.If company ABC submitted will realize a profi t of more than 500 ron with a probability of over 50% and the probability for not making profi t is 28%.

References - Wayne L. W, (2004), Microsoft Excel Data Analysis and Business Modeling, Publisher: Microsoft Press


The Structure Of Romanian’s Food Consumption and its Implications on Health Condition and Quality Of Life Mihaela CONSTANDACHE Daniela - Simona NENCIU

Abstract

The analysis of the food consumption of the Romanian population reveals the fact that a series of foods are consumed in excess, while other nutritional factors register defi cient intake, which considerably increases the risk of chronic diseases. Thus, the high saturated fat consumption (foods high in saturated and trans fatty acids), cholesterol, salt, sugar, refi ned grains and even alcohol increase the incidence of chronic disease risk. Unbalanced consumption of fi sh and dairy products, fresh fruit and vegetables results into a lower intake of essential amino acids, polyunsaturated fatty acids, vitamins (C, A, B, D, folic acid), calcium and iron, according to recommendations of nutritionists. Therefore, there are required some nutritional recommendations to ensure the optimal nutrient and energy needs of the body, thus reducing the risk of chronic diseases and ensuring the health of the population. Keywords: food consumption, energy intake, nutrient intake, diet quality, population health condition, quality of life.

***Introduction

Nutrition plays an important role in promoting and maintaining the health condition during the entire life, a non-sanogenous diet playing an important role in determining the incidence of many chronic diseases and alarming prevalence in current civilization such as obesity, type 2 diabetes mellitus, cardiovascular disease, cancer, osteoporosis and dental diseases. Recent reports of the World Health Organization show that chronic diseases contributed with approximately 60% to the total all deaths reported


worldwide (almost half of this fi gure being due to cardiovascular diseases) and with almost 46% to the current global morbidity, 79 % of deaths registered in the world due to chronic diseases occurring in developing countries. It is expected that by 2020, deaths due to chronic diseases to increase to 57% worldwide, and the mortality caused by these could reach about 75% of all deaths (Nutrition Society of Romania, 2006). A common feature of chronic diseases, however different may be their mechanism of production is that each represents a great potential of prevention, which once achieved could provide signifi cant reduction in medical costs, as well as in all costs socially and economically related. The target of primary prevention of chronic disease is the modifi able risk factors, among which stand out especially the eating habits and sedentary lifestyle. To these there may be added other measures regarding risk factors such as chronic smoking, alcohol consumption, overweight, dyslipidemia, hypertension, etc. (Nutrition Society of Romania, 2006). Food quality is a concern because it directly affects the health condition of the population. Thus, it is known that certain defi citary food patterns are associated with 4-10 causes of death (coronary heart disease, some cancers, stroke, type 2 diabetes). Moreover, a healthy diet may reduce major risk factors for a number of chronic diseases such as obesity, high blood pressure, high cholesterol content in the blood, etc.. It is estimated that the main means of improving the state of health of the population is improving its food.Characteristics of food consumption of the population in Romania Main determinant of long-term changes in food consumption is the consumer’s income. The decline of real income and the increase of the prices of products during 1990-1999 have decreased the purchasing power of the population which was refl ected in the changes occurring in food consumption patterns. Another reason for the substitution effects of structural changes occurring in consumption is that until 1999 the consumer price indices of food products were superior to total consumer price indices (Costin, G.M. and Segal, R., 2001). Thus, this period is characterized by the reduction the consumption of fruit (27.06%), sugar (23.44%) and vegetable fat (14.5%) of the food category of vegetables, respectively, fi sh (with 56.86%), meat (with 20.82%), eggs (with 16.26%) and animal fats (with 35.29%), of the group of animal products. On the other hand there is a substantial increase in the consumption of potatoes (with 44.95%), vegetables (with 22.83%) and cereals and cereal products (9%), of vegetable origin products category and respectively, milk and milk products (with 38.47%) of the category of animal products. With regard to the consumption of drinks in the period 1990-1999


there is an increase in the consumption of soft drinks by 89.42% and the consumption of wine, until 1998, with 74.05% compared to 1990, while the consumption of beer decreases until 1997, with 21.84% compared to 1990, the same trend being registered in the consumption of distilled alcoholic beverages. In the period 2000-2008, due to an improvement in the economic situation of Romania and as a result of doubling the consumer incomes, as evidenced by increasing real earnings index by 119.2% in 2008 compared to 2000, increased consumer purchasing power which is also emphasized by increased food consumption in all commodity groups except for cereals and cereal products whose consumption decreased by 5.9% in 2007 compared to 2000. The biggest increase in consumption (with 212.09%, in 2008 compared to 2000) had soft drinks, followed by fruit and fruit products derived (with 86.97% in 2006 compared to 2000), fi sh and fi sh products (with 76.92% in 2006 compared to 2000), beer (with 67.27% in 2007 compared to 2000), meat and meat products and edible offal (with 50.97% in 2006 compared to 2000). Decreasing population incomes in 2008-2011 as a result of economic recession caused further changes in food consumption structure, except for fi sh and fi sh products all groups of food registered decreases. Thus, the average annual consumption of fruits and fruit products decreased with 7.5% in 2011 compared to 2008, the consumption of milk and dairy products decreased by 10.6% (in 2011 compared to 2008), the consumption of eggs decreased by 6.8% (in 2011 compared to 2008), meat consumption decreased by 25.9% (in 2011 compared to 2008), the consumption of beverages also followed the same downward trend which was stronger in the case of alcoholic beverages. With regard to the consumption of vegetables and fruit, leguminous bean plants and watermelons, the largest proportion in the diet have tomatoes, followed by cabbage, melons, dry onions, edible roots and pepper. Tomato consumption showed a fl uctuating variation from year to year. The consumption of leguminous bean plants declined until 1994 after which a slight increase was registered until 2009 without large variations from year to year. Nevertheless, the average annual consumption of leguminous bean plants of the year 2010 represents only 71.79% of the average consumption registered at the level of the year 1990. Remaining vegetables consumption recorded average annual growth in the period under review, as follows: cucumbers with 114.29%, melons with 99.19%, cabbage with 85.27%, green beans with 69.23%, edible root vegetables with 62.16%, peppers with 56% and dry onion with 52.46%. With regard to consumption of fruit and fruit products, the highest rate in the current food of Romanians is registered with the apples, followed


by southern and exotic fruits, grapes, plums, cherries and sour cherries, peaches and apricots and sour apricots. It should be noted that until 1997 the grape consumption held the second place among Romanians preferences with regard to fruits and fruit products, after apples, and since 1998 the consumption of southern and exotic fruit has greatly increased leaving behind the grape consumption. Actually, southern and exotic fruit represent the only categories whose consumption increased during 1990-2011, most types of fruits registering a decrease in consumption. In the case of meat, the highest consumption is recorded for pork, followed by chicken, beef, mutton and other types of meat and offal. In the period 1990-2011 the consumption of pork increased with 25.1%, while the consumption of chicken, although some variations were recorded in the year 2011 is similar to that of the year 1990, the consumption of other types of meat increased in the years 2007-2008, and later returned to the values recorded in 1990, beef consumption dropped with 50.46% compared to that corresponding to the year 1990, and edible offal consumption recorded a decrease of 17.07% compared to that corresponding to the year 1990. High consumption of pork is attributed to Romanian traditional preferences. In terms of vegetable and animal fat consumption during the analyzed period there is a decrease of butter consumption on account of the vegetable oil and margarine. Although the effects of substitution in consumption are usually infl uenced by changes in relative prices (higher accessibility of margarine), it is possible that these trends represent the onset of health concerns or at least aspects of nutritional food selection. Other factors contributed as well to these patterns of food consumption in Romania, namely cultural factors (the use of refi ned sugar, eggs and animal fat in preparing traditional homemade cakes), socio-psychological factors: traditional preferences are sometimes contrasted with medical recommendations: preference to fatty foods (cabbage rolls stuffed with meat) educational factors: poor knowledge about the implications of different food products consumption on individual health. The analysis of average daily food consumption, per capita, expressed in kcal (Figure 1) compared to average daily caloric needs, per capita, calculated taking into account the structure of the Romanian population and FAO recommendations, indicates a surprising dietary caloric surplus up to 20% in the period 1990-2000, in the context of the decreasing of the average real income, probably maintained by consuming cheap calories, because in 2001-2008 caloric surplus grew to 24-33% compared to the necessary one, and after 2008, as a result of the registration of a further fall in average real wage levels of the population that surplus has fallen to 27.2% compared to the needs.


Reducing food quality in Romania in the period 1990-2000 can be evidenced by the reducing of protein intake by 3.16% in 2000 compared to the corresponding 1990. Moreover, the proportion of animal protein with high biological value is below the proportion of vegetable protein and the recommended value of 50%. During the period 2000-2011 food quality improves slightly, fact often remarked upon by increasing protein intake with 1.51% compared to the corresponding year 1990 as well as by increasing animal protein with high biological value. Thus, in 2004, the share of animal protein with high biological value equals the percentage of vegetable origin protein and dietary recommendations, and as a result since 2005 the proportion of proteins with high biological value has exceeded 50%. Regarding the balance between fat intake and requirements, we can say that in the period 1990-2000 it is quite balanced, but starting with the year 2001, based on the increase of real incomes of consumers, the fat intake also increased to a maximum of 32.7% compared to necessary intake, in 2006, and later declined slightly to 24% from necessary (corresponding to 2011). Analyzing the structure of the intake of lipids we can see an imbalance compared to the recommendations of nutritionists determined by the share of more than 10% of saturated fatty acids at the expense of intake of polyunsaturated fatty acids which is signifi cantly below the recommendations of FAO, namely 10%. Since 2003, it has been noticed a fat intake of over 35% of the average daily energy intake, which may be associated with increased saturated fat intake and daily caloric intake, favoring obesity.


Evolution of the average daily food consumption, per capita, compared to the recommended one

Figure 1

Data processing by the National Statistical Institute

The greatest imbalance is registered between intake and need for carbohydrates, based on high food intake of cereals and cereal products, which in the context of low income level in Romania, contributes in a high proportion to provide the necessary calories (above 40% compared to 30% in developed economies). Thus, the imbalance between glucides intake and needs is noticed throughout the analyzed period, constantly increasing from 21.78% in 1991 to 46.16% in 2003, when, due to higher incomes of population, the imbalance begins to decrease, reaching 32.7% in 2010. Disaggregating the caloric consumption on types of families suggests potential nutritional defi cits among poor families. Thus, the average caloric intake of unemployed families was below the minimum amount recommended for adults by nutritionists in Romania (2450 cal), calculated on the basis of the consumption basket needed for a healthy life. Thus, in the year 1999, families from the fi rst decile of income had an average daily intake of 2036 calories below the recommended by nutritionists for a healthy life. There are signs of nutritional defi ciencies of the level of numerous poor families, given that poverty was systematically associated with an increased size of the family. Most commonly, these casualties are children of poor families. Food quality is poor in low-income families, remarking lower proportion of animal protein, due to the reduction of purchasing power for


meat and dairy products. For these families the dominant share of caloric and especially protein consumption is represented by vegetal products, animal calories representing on average only 25%, which is considered an indicator of poor quality of food. The analysis of nutritional factors consumption depending on the income deciles suggests that as income increases there is a reduction in the share of plant products in caloric intake, especially in the protein. With the increase of the level of education and of income and with the decrease of the average size of the family, there is an increase of the contribution of animal products in caloric intake and especially the protein. However, the level of education is accompanied by a decrease in the share of animal fats, which indicates a possible positive association between this variable and the level of knowledge of healthy eating. Figure 2 shows what can be called a typical Romanian diet, which is based on grains and grain products (breads, corn, etc), milk and milk products and vegetable fats and to a lesser extent meat and products meat, potatoes, vegetables, fruits and fruit products, animal fats, fi sh and fi sh products. It can be appreciated that the Romanian diet is close to that of Mediterranean countries (high share of cereals and less meat). Compliance with religious customs, especially in rural families, creates opportunities for protein and calcium defi ciencies due to abstinence from animal products, on relatively long periods of the year. Families with low income among the unemployed and pensioners constitute a special risk group.


Caloric intake (%) of main food groups, in 2011Figure 2

Data processing by the National Institute of Statistics

In Romania the consumption of fruit, vegetables, fi sh and milk and dairy products are even lower than nutritional recommendations, what determines a lower contribution for a number of necessary nutrients such as potassium, calcium, vitamin D, polyunsaturated fatty acids, leading thus to reasons of concern for ensuring the health of the population. In order to avoid these potential drawbacks which may maintain long-term adverse implications on the health of the population the following recommendations can made: - increase the consumption of fruits and vegetables; - reduce the consumption of potatoes and increase the consumption of vegetables and legumes; - replace refi ned grains with whole grains; - increase consumption of partially or completely skimmed milk, of soy-fortifi ed foods and beverages; - diversify the sources of protein in the diet: fi sh and seafood, lean meat, poultry, eggs, legumes, soy products, unsalted oleaginous fruits;


- decrease the share of pork in the diet and increase the share of fi sh and seafood; - replace foods high in solid fats with the others of a lower-caloric value or rich in non-hydrogenated vegetable oils; - replace solid fats consumption with oils whenever possible.

There are three reasons behind the recommendation to increase the consumption of fruit and vegetables. The fi rst is that most fruits and vegetables are the main sources of certain nutrients whose daily food intake cannot match the needs of the body, namely magnesium, potassium, calcium, dietary fi ber, vitamin A, C, folic acid, becoming thus a concern to ensure health of the population. Second, consumption of fruit and vegetables is associated with reduced risk for many chronic diseases. Although Romanian diet contains suffi cient amounts of cereal products, a problem that can have serious repercussions on the health of the public draws attention, namely the share of increasingly highly refi ned grain products rich in solid fats and sugar, at the expense of whole grains. Whole grains are an important source of iron, magnesium, selenium, vitamin B complex and dietary fi ber. Thus, in order to maintain within the limits of recommended daily energy intake and a better control of body weight, at least half of the grain intake should be represented by the whole grains, the rest of the cereal products being necessary to be fortifi ed with the a number of vitamins and minerals. Many nutritionists believe that wholegrain cereals should be the second main constituent of food, after water. Regarding protein intake in the diet of Romanians may be considered adequate in terms of quantity but not quality. Therefore varied and balanced consumption of foods rich in protein intake can improve and bring a number of health benefi ts. Some studies have shown that a number of oleaginous fruits (walnuts, almonds, pistachios) reduce the risk of cardiovascular diseases if consumed in adequate amounts within your daily caloric needs. Due to their high energy intake they should be consumed in small portions, substituting other foods high in protein and should not supplement a daily diet. With regard to consumption of milk and dairy products, it is slightly below the nutritional recommendations, which is why it is recommended increasing of food intake of milk and milk products, apart from those totally or partially skimmed to ensure increased intake of potassium, vitamins A and D and decreased sodium intake, cholesterol and saturated fatty acids. More and more evidence are coming to support the health benefi ts of consuming fi sh and seafood. This is why experts recommend a minimum


of weekly consumption of 225 g fi sh or seafood, respectively, accounting for 20% protein derived from this source. Fish consumption among the population in Romania is very low and it is recommended to increase it in the future because, among other nutrients, it represents an important source of fatty acids, ω-3 and eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) as well as of docosahexaenoic acid (DHA). Correcting all these defi ciencies of food consumption of the population of Romania is absolutely necessary to achieve and maintain the health condition of the population, in order to avoid nutritional imbalances that could lead to an increased risk of chronic diseases.

Conclusions

The structure of caloric consumption at the level of the year 2011 does not refl ect major signs of concern in the proportion of protein (14.13%), carbohydrates (57.39%) and lipid (29.23%) being close to OMS recommendations. However, regarding the structure of consumption in depth, although fat intake is within the limits of the nutritional recommendations, the high percentage of saturated fat (because of the high consumption of pork and animal fats) increases the risk of cardiovascular diseases, which is supported by the high rate of cardiovascular diseases in Romania, one of the highest in the European Union. The examination of the incidence of mortality on categories of diseases of the circulatory system outlines a very high incidence especially for cerebrovascular diseases, women being more vulnerable, a situation different from the distribution of ischemic heart disease. The analysis of population food consumption showed that some nutrients are below the recommended level for vitamins (especially A, B, D), calcium, as a result of low fi sh consumption and consumption of dairy products which are inferior to the nutritionists’ recommendations, vitamin C, folic acid, iron (following the low consumption of fresh fruit and vegetables). Defi ciencies of vitamins and mineral salts, especially in children, can have dramatic effects on the long term: visual impairments due to vitamin A defi ciency, anemia due to the reduction rate of absorption of iron from food, especially for children with defi cits of vitamin C, increased risk of diarrhea and respiratory diseases caused by lack of iron. The biggest challenge for consumers is the compliance with nutritional recommendations which carefully control the body weight. Therefore, it is recommended to use so-called “dense foods” that provide vitamins, minerals


and other substances with favorable effects on health but have low caloric intake. These foods are rich in dietary fi bers and contain no or very low content of solid fats, sugar, starch, sodium or high sodium containing compounds. Vegetables (except for potatoes), fruit, whole grains, milk and partially or completely skimmed milk, fi sh and seafood, lean meat and poultry, eggs, legumes, oleaginous fruit, which are prepared without added solid fats, sugars starch and salt are considered dense foods.

References - Costin, G.M. şi Segal, R., Foods for special nutrition. Foods and Health, Academica Publisher, Bucharest, 2001; - ***, Guide for healthy nutrition, Nutrition Society of Romania, Performantica Publisher, Iaşi, 2006; - ***, National Institute of Statistics of Romania, Statistical database. TEMPO – online – Times series. Available from: https://statistici.insse.ro/shop/?lang=ro [Accesed 10th January 2013].


The Economic Dimension Of Environmental Risk Management in Knowledge-Based Society PhD Ana-Maria DINU “Dimitrie Cantemir” University, Bucharest

Abstract

Environmental risk for the majority of companies is the deterioration of bottom-line performance from: increased regulation on energy usage, eroded reputation, brand name and market share from an environmental incident, increased operating costs from the effects of global warming, higher fuel costs as natural resources are depleted and loss of market share to more environmentally “savvy” competitors with marketing campaigns which portray social responsibility. Keywords: risk, risk management, sustenaible, environment.

***Introduction

The economy is a complex game, where the players’ expectations infl uence their future events and probabilities. The issue of risk analysis allows, experience demonstrating this, a better understanding of the socio-economic context, especially reveals challenges that the company must meet if it wants to remain on the market. Zero risk doesn’t exist. Risk is the condition of all success. Risk is defi ned as an uncertain but potentially element that always appears in the technical, human, social, political events, refl ecting changes in the distribution of possible outcomes, subjective probability values and objectives, with possible damaging and irreversible effects. Risk management is defi ned as the management of uncertain events for success.


Risk management is characteristic of all methods and means by which risk is managed to achieve the objectives described in the technical, social, human and political analyzed events, with uncertainty as the major risk factors. The key word is systematic risk management, because only an extremely rigorous and consistent approach at all levels to analyze the ongoing event, can lead to effective control activities to reduce the occurrence and risk factors. Risk management process steps are the following: context establishment: determining the strategic context, organizational and risk management, and establish the structure analysis and the criteria upon which risks will be evaluated, identifying affected parties/stakeholders and defi ning communication and consultation; risk identifi cation: identifi cation as a basis for further analysis of what can happen, why and how, including the dangers and consequences associated; risk analysis: in terms of probability and severity, control measures scope and effect to examinate the seriousness of consequences, likelihood and severity can be combined to estimate the level of risk; risk assessing and prioritizing: comparing the estimated risk levels pre-set criteria, the risks can be ranked to identify priorities, identifi ed risks with low priority can be accepted without being treated, being only subject to monitoring and review; risk treatment: developing and implementing a management plan, which should include consideration of fi nancial and other resources, and action deadlines; communication and consultation: consultation and communication with affected parties/stakeholders, internal and external, in each stage of the risk management; Monitoring and review: risk monitoring and review, also performance evaluation of the risk management system and changes that may affect it.


Risk management processFigure 1

Monitoring and

review

Communication and consultation

Risk treatment

Risk assessing and prioritizing

Risk analysis

Risk identification

Context establishment

Risk

management

Source: the author

Environmental Risk Management

In most general terms, environmental risk is the result of interaction between human activity and the environment. Environment risk is based on the fact that the activities of an organization can generate some form of environmental modifi cation and thereby induces a potential danger. For example, effect of human activities can have a negative effect on fl ora or fauna or can generate a danger to the health and welfare of the people. Also destructive effects can be passed on water resources, air, soil, energy and climate in general. Risk management gives any organization the ability to understand better the conduct of operations and the ability to respond more effectively to internal and external changing circumstances. To identify environmental risks and implement the management system, the environmental risks that need to be managed are fi rst determined based on the actual environmental risks reported from business domain companies and risk assessment results conducted across the entire company. These risks are then classifi ed according to their occurrence frequencies and the degree of impact on business.


Environmental risk management mechanismFigure 2

Planning Implementation Monitoring

progress

Identifying environmental risks

Identifying major risks

Reported risks

Risk assessment results

Source: www.panasonic.net

Environmental risk management can lead to obtaining direct benefi ts to any organization, both in the short and medium and long term by improving available information.

Environmental risk management benefi tsTable 1

Short and medium term benefi ts Long term benefi tsreducing costs and adding value; minimize organization exposure to

risks;increased likelihood to continue

operating under normal conditions and obtaining new approvals and authorizations;

demonstrate compliance with the law;

improving the image and reputation of the organization.

effective strategic planning as a result of the high level of knowledge and understanding of key exposure factors; costs decreasing as a result of unwanted

effects and forecasting adopting appropriate measures to prevent them; ensuring a higher degree of training to

enhance the positive consequences; auditing process improvement and increased

use of the results of internal and external reviews; better results in terms of effi ciency,

effectiveness and programs adequacy; ensuring an effi cient communication between

organizations and affected parties / stakeholders to formulate directions and priority action program design;

achieving sustainable management. Source: Băbuţ, G. şi Moraru R., 2002


Organizations can implement an environmental risk management to achieve specifi c objectives such as: taking decisions knowingly; planning management system based on the ranking of environmental risks; effi cient allocation and use of available resources; increasing management capacity in terms of the obligations of an organization whitch is operating in a competitive environment; achieving a high level of transparency in management and decision-making; ensuring greater fl exibility for alternative actions as a result of a better understanding of the sources of risk; fondation of approaches about the management of uncertainty; ensuring better identifi cation and opportunities enhancement.

World Economic Forum made a survey (Global Risks Perception Survey (GRPS)) regarding the ability of a country to adapt and/or recover from the impact of global risks. Data collected from GRPS gave suffi cient responses for the analysis of 10 countries: Brazil, China, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Switzerland, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States. Figure 3 illustrates these countries’ ability to recover from and adapt to economic and environmental risks respectively and Figure 4. Presents the centres of gravity for environmental risks.


Ability to adapt and recover from economic and environmental risksFigure 3


Centres of Gravity for Environmental risks Figure 4

Source: World Economic Forum

Conclusions

Words like “sustainability” are now key trigger words in the world of advertising for positive, emotive images associated with words such as “green” and “environment” and are used with sophistication to sell holidays, cars and consumables. There are a number of diverse sources of both risk and opportunity from the environment, thus energy supplies and costs are a threat, whereas the development of renewable energy sources is an opportunity. Responsibility and authority of persons engaged in risk management and the relationship between them must be established by clear documentation, especially for people who have one or more of the following responsibilities1: initiating actions to prevent and mitigate the consequences of the risks; risk control treatment regime until their conversion to the acceptability ; identifying and record risk management issues;

1 Moraru R. şi Băbuţ, G., 2000


initiation, recommendation or provide solutions through pre deter-mined communication methods; verifying the implementation of solutions; internal and external communication and consultation.

References - Băbuţ, G., Moraru, R. New trends in environmental risk assessment and management. Annals of the University of Petroşani – Mining Engineering, vol. 5 (XXVI), UNIVERSITAS Publishing House, Petroşani, 2004; - Băbuţ, G., Moraru, R. Environmental risk characterisation principles. Proceedings of the 6th Conference on Environment and Mineral Processing, part. I, VŠB-TU Ostrava, Cehia, 27-29.06.2002, pag. 17-21; - Moraru, R., Băbuţ, G,. Evaluarea riscului ecologic. Editura INFOMIN, Deva, 2000; - Opran Constantin, Risk management, Publishing Comunicare.ro, Bucharest, 2004. - *** World Economic Forum


RECENZIE DE CARTE

Un valoros set de materiale didactice în sprijinul pregătirii jurnaliştilor şi viitorilor specialişti în comunicare Recent, au apărut la Chişinau un pachet de trei valoroase lucrări cu conţinut statistic şi caracter didactic:

• STATISTICA ÎN COMUNICARE

• INTERPRETAREA DATELOR STATISTICE ÎN JURNALISM

• GHIDUL DE ÎNŢELEGERE ŞI RELATARE A STATISTICILOR. RESURSĂ PENTRU JURNALIŞTI ŞI COMUNICATORI Scopul acestor lucrări este să ofere viitorilor jurnalişti şi specialişti în comunicare competenţe suplimentare în valorifi carea informaţiilor statistice şi să le permită să utilizeze corect şi în cunoştinţă de cauză datele statistice, precum şi să le interpreteze într-un mod profesionist, asigurând astfel calitatea produsului mediatic pus ulterior în circulaţie. Cele trei apariţii editoriale sunt rodul materializării unui proiect de cercetare, având conducător pe Conf. univ. dr. Mihail Guzun. Proiectul a fost sprijinit de către Biroul Naţional de Statistică (BNS) al Republicii Moldova şi a benefi ciat de suportul Programului Naţiunilor Unite pentru Dezvoltare (PNUD), în cadrul Proiectului Comun ONU „Consolidarea Sistemului Statistic Naţional”. Colectivul de autorii este format din: Ludmila Andronic, Georgeta Stepanov, Igor Guzun, Ion Pârţachi sub coordonarea conf. dr. Mihail Guzun. Aceste discipline, nou incluse în curriculum Facultăţii de Jurnalism şi Comunicare din Universitatea de Stat a Republicii Moldova, contribuie la formarea unei viziuni sistemice şi multiaspectuale privind funcţiile instituţiilor mediatice şi rolurile comunicatorilor în exploatarea corectă şi diseminarea datelor statistice, precum şi privitor la efectele materialelor


elaborate, care refl ectă diverse aspecte prin utilizarea de informaţii statistice. Obiectivele principale ale proiectului le-au constituit: - instruirea studenţilor care urmează studiile la facultăţile de jurnalism şi ştiinţe ale comunicării, în materie de statistică; - familiarizarea viitorilor lucrători din mass-media şi serviciilor de relaţii cu publicul, comunicatorilor în general, cu procedeele de obţinere a indicatorilor statistici, - dezvoltarea cunoştinţelor şi formarea abilităţilor necesare în vederea utilizării datelor statistice, identifi carea modalităţilor de punere în valoare a datelor statistice în textele publicate sau difuzate prin mijloacele electronice, găsirea soluţiilor de evitare a capcanelor, cu care, după cum ne demonstrează şi practica ziaristică, se poate confrunta aproape fi ecare jurnalist. Scopul urmărit prin această extensie a planului de pregătire a viitorilor jurnalişti a fost înlesnirea conlucrării dintre cei care produc datele statistice şi cei care le utilizează, identifi carea modalităţilor de amplifi care a acestei conlucrări, formarea deprinderilor de utilizare a paginii ofi ciale a Biroului Naţional de Statistică în procesul de căutare a datelor şi metadatelor, în apelarea la Banca de Date a BNS. Bunele practici demonstrează că, pentru a obţine calitate şi credibilitate, este absolut necesar ca specialistul din domeniul jurnalismului şi al relaţiilor publice să consulte, să interpreteze corect şi să valorifi ce datele statistice. În acest context, autorii subliniază: „Mergând mână în mână, statistica, comunicarea şi jurnalismul pot genera consecinţe benefi ce pentru comunitatea umană. Pot ajuta oamenii să înţeleagă şi să conştientizeze ce se întâmplă în jurul lor şi să-i implice astfel în activităţile practice. Pot mobiliza autorităţile să obţină performanţe comparabile cu ţările spre care tindem să ne integrăm. Sau, pur şi simplu, să-i ajute pe toţi să ştie şi să cunoască mai multe, să se orienteze mai bine în labirinturile lumii contemporane, să procedeze în mod conştient, să se dezvolte şi să trăiască o viaţă productivă” Cursurile sunt adresate studenţilor, precum şi tuturor celor ce lucrează în acest domeniu, se corelează armonic cu alte module fundamentale şi speciale din curriculum şi ţin de comunicarea publică.Toate acestea, în ansamblul lor şi în interdependenţă contribuie la abordarea ştiinţifi că şi pragmatică a activităţii specialiştilor din domeniul jurnalismului profesionist. Disciplinele oferă studenţilor cunoştinţe teoretice referitoare la măsurarea prin indicatori adecvaţi procese economice şi sociale şi valorifi că concepte precum: „statistică”, „analiză statistică”, „indicator statistic”, „valoare medie”, precum şi noţiuni-gen: „date statistice”, „interpretare statistică” „roluri mass-media”, „efecte mass-media”,


„funcţii mediatice”, „disfuncţii mediatice”, „analiză”, „comparaţie”, „Birou Naţional de Statistică” etc. prin prisma rolului, importanţei şi specifi cului lor în asigurarea calităţii produsului informaţional contemporan. De asemenea, cursurile acordă atenţie conceptelor-cheie ale comunicării publice: „masiv informaţional potenţial”, „proces de documentare”, „sursă de informare”, „informaţie statistică”, „dreptul la informaţie”, „responsabilitate socială”, „imparţialitate”, „libertate de expresie”, „obiectivitate”, „echidistanţă” etc. Aceste discipline vor contribui la formarea unor noi competente viitorilor absolvenţi, precum şi abilităţi în: - soluţionarea problemelor specifi ce cu utilizarea statisticilor în contextul domeniului de formare profesională; - aplicarea de cunoştinţe teoretice în efectuarea activităţilor aplicative; - colectarea, interpretarea şi utilizarea datelor statistice relevante din domeniile investigate; - aplicarea tehnicilor fundamentale de documentare şi de redactare a materialelor informative care cuprind date statistice; - cunoaşterea principiilor de organizare, normelor şi principiilor de funcţionare a instituţiilor producătoare de date statistice. Câteva teme, selectiv extrase, din cuprinsul celor două manuale: - Prezentarea, prelucrarea şi interpretarea datelor statistice sub formă de serii statistice, prin tabele statistice şi sub forma reprezentărilor grafi ce; - Logica şi modalităţile de determinare a mediilor şi de evitare a capcanelor; - Indicatorii economici relevanţi pentru descrierea şi interpretarea economiei naţionale; - Indicatorii sociali relevanţi pentru descrierea şi interpretarea aspectelor demografce şi sociale; - Modalităţi de utilizare a datelor statistice în jurnalism; - Analiza ştirilor: faptul ziaristic şi informaţia statistică ;scrierea reportajelor cu utilizarea corectă a statisticilor; - Surse, tipuri de statistici, modalităţi şi reguli generale de documentare şi utilizare a datelor statistice în comunicarea publică şi în comunicarea Corporativă. Cele două manuale sunt însoţite de un instrument ajutator - Ghidul de înţelegere şi relatare a statisticilor. Resursă pentru jurnalişti şi comunicatori-avind caracter utilitar, plin cu exemple şi cazuistică jurnalistică. Sunt dezvoltate aspecte precum: limbajul statistic, erorile comune în calcul şi interpretare, scrierea şi prezentarea cifrelor, ilustrarea statisticilor: de la grafi ce la infografi ce şi videografi ce.


Lucrarea se încheie cu prezentarea aspectelor etice ale utilizării datelor statistice. În viziunea autorilor, problemele etice legate de utilizarea şi comunicarea datelor statistice presupun respectarea unor principii de bază precum: Integritate: care impune, ca jurnaliştii şi comunicatorii, când utilizează informaţii statistice, să fi e oneşti şi să aibă întotdeauna în vedere interesul public, iar datele să fi e corecte. Competenţă profesionala: presupune cunoaşterea profundă a realităţii şi refl ectarea ei prin cei mai adecvaţi indicatori statistici, precum şi conştientizarea limitelor profesionale proprii, motiv care impune, când este cazul, apelul la consultarea avizată a specialiştilor. Ei trebuie să ţină seama de faptul că articolele şi materialele de PR elaborate au întotdeauna un impact asupra publicului, fapt ce impune un grad mare de responsabilitate. Confi denţialitate: Informaţiile confi denţiale nu vor fi divulgate, cu excepţia cazului în care există permisiunea specifi că, acordată de către părţile vizate, dacă acest fapt urmăreşte interesul public, sau cu excepţia cazului în care comunicatorul este obligat să facă acest lucru prin lege. Deci, utilizarea datelor statistice în elaborarea materialelor jurnalistice impune respectarea strictă a codului deontologic al profesiei de jurnalist - comunicator. Lucrările sunt o apariţie originală şi valoroasă care răspunde unor specializări din domeniul jurnalism şi al comunicarii, o încercare cu reuşită deplina de a forma deprinderi de calcul şi interpretare pentru studenti şi masteranzi care nu au dobândit o pregătire statistică economică aprofundată prealabilă. Elementele de succes ale acestei lucrări, aşa cum se poate constata atât din cuprinsul cărţii, cât şi din conţinutul detaliat, se desprind din ideea educaţională dominantă, axată pe formarea unei gândiri ştiinţifi ce statistice şi, conving prin dorinţa de a conferi vizibilitate caracterului original şi simplităţii statisticii văzută ca instrument de fundamentare a unor judecăţi asupra unor procese economice şi sociale. Un Glosar de termeni încheie lucrarea, sporind şi prin aceasta caracterul utilitar al primelor două manuale. Bibliografi a, ataşată fi ecărei lucrări, detaliată şi la obiect, atestă şi ea, dacă mai era necesar, că autorii au realizat o temeinica documentare, oferind celor interesaţi şi posibilitatea studiului mai aprofundat al problematicii statistice aplicate. Ilustrările şi cazuistica inserată în lucrări, sunt deosebit de bogate şi puternic ancorate în realităţile ţării, fapt de natură să consolideze cultura general economică a viitorilor absolvenţi.


Dincolo de aprecierea cărţii şi propunerea ei spre difuzare in afara sferei studenţimii universităţii, se impune a fi făcută şi o invitaţie autorilor de a continua periplul statistic, cu acelaşi interes şi aplecare, motivare educaţională şi spirit inovativ.

Prof.dr. emerit Al.Isaic-ManiuAcademia de Studii Economice, Bucureşti


Programul statistic european pentru perioada 2013-2017- scurtă prezentare

Regulamentul (CE) nr. 223/2009 al Parlamentului European şi al Consiliului din 11 martie 2009 privind statisticile europene reprezintă, baza legală pentru pregătirea programului statistic european multianual, asigură cadrul de elaborare, dezvoltare şi diseminare a statisticilor europene în principalele domenii, defi neşte obiectivele acţiunilor prevăzute pentru o perioadă de maximum cinci ani. În program sunt stabilite priorităţile privind necesităţile în materie de informare în contextul realizării activităţilor Uniunii Europene, statisticile fi ind vitale în acest proces.

*** Programul statistic european a fost aprobat de Parlamentul European şi de Consiliul Uniunii Europene. S-a desfăşurat un proces amplu de negociere cu statele membre, inclusiv România, care a participat activ. Uniunea Europeană a adoptat Regulamentul (UE) Nr. 99/2013 al Parlamentului European şi al Consiliului din 15 ianuarie 2013 privind Programul statistic european pentru perioada 2013-2017. În Regulament, Art. 2, intitulat “Valoare adăugată”, se subliniază importanţa statisticilor europene:„Programul reprezintă valoarea adăugată, cea a garantării că statisticile europene sunt axate pe informaţiile necesare în vederea elaborării, punerii în aplicare, monitorizării şi evaluării politicilor Uniunii.” În textul Regulamentului sunt menţionate şapte provocări la care Sistemul Statistic European trebuie să le facă faţă în perioada următoare: 1) Importanţa calităţii statisticilor produse de institute naţionale de

statistică independente din punct de vedere profesional; 2) Nevoia de statistici afl ată într-o contiună creştere în contextul

globalizării; 3) Nevoia de statistici afl ată într-o permanentă schimbare generând

mari sinergii între domeniile statistice; 4) Defalcări adecvate ale datelor statistice ceea ce facilitează

monitorizarea efectelor crizei economice şi fi nanciare şi a


impactului politicilor asupra cetăţenilor; 5) Statisticile existente constituie elemente esenţiale ale procesului

decizional şi necesitatea statisticilor de gen, de câte ori este cazul; 6) Apariţia unor noi actori pe piaţa informaţională, inclusiv a celor

care furnizează informaţii în timp real, determinând necesitatea unor statistici actuale şi de calitate ridicată;

7) Necesitatea reducerii sarcinii de răspuns asupra respondenţilor.

Sistemul Statistic European reprezintă, în prezent, cel mai important furnizor de statistici ofi ciale în Uniunea Europeană, obiectivul general al actualului program multianual fi ind conservarea acestei pozitii. Obiectivele specifi ce ale Programului sunt menţionate în Articolul 4 al Regulamentului: 1) Furnizarea de informaţii statistice de actualitate, de o manieră

efi cace din punctul de vedere al costurilor, fără suprapuneri inutile ale eforturilor;

2) Creşterea efi cienţei şi îmbunătăţirea calităţii; 3) Consolidarea parteneriatului în cadrul Sistemului Statistic

European ; 4) Furnizarea consecventă de statistici pe întreaga durată a

programului.

Politicile Uniunii Europene reprezintă instrumente care specifi că cerinţele în materie de statistici la care programul va răspunde prin revizuirea structurii şi a proceselor de producţie corespunzătoare. În acest context, fi ecare politică a Uniunii se refl ectă în diferite componente ale infrastructurii statistice şi benefi ciază de activităţi specifi ce în cadrul programului. Legătură între statistici şi politicile Uniunii:


Necesit i statistice legate de politicile UE i politicile

mondiale – Indicatori Cadre de contabilitate i sisteme statistice armonizate pentru producerea de indicatori Statistici care trebuie s fie utilizate ca intr ri în cadrul sistemelor de contabilitate

Europa 2020, guvernan a economic i globalizarea economic

Performan a în domeniul economic i cel social

Sustenabilitatea mediului

Întreprinderi Europa cet enilor Statistici geospa iale, de mediu, agricole i alte statistici sectoriale

Nevoia de statistici elaborate în următorii cinci ani : Strategia Europa 2020, aprobată de Consiliul European din iunie 2010, constituie « vârful de lance » al Uniunii Europene şi stabileşte obiectivele principale şi iniţiativele emblematice pentru care Sistemul Statistic European trebuie să furnizeze indicatori statistici în mai multe domenii. Criza şi tensiunile de pe pieţele fi nanciare au subliniat necesitatea consolidării guvernanţei economice a Uniunii. Uniunea a luat măsuri decisive necesare în guvernanţa şi coordonarea economică, dintre care unele vor avea implicaţii statistice majore în plus faţă de activităţile statistice în curs. Globalizarea economică generează nevoia unei mai bune măsurări a producţiei. Comunicarea Comisiei din 20 august 2009 intitulată „Dincolo de PIB: Măsurarea progreselor într-o lume în schimbare” şi Raportul Stiglitz-Sen-Fitoussi privind măsurarea performanţei economice şi a progresului social au dat un nou avânt provocării principale pentru Sistemul Statistic European, modul de a obţine statistici mai bune în materie de probleme transversale şi statistici mai bine integrate pentru a descrie fenomene sociale, economice şi de mediu complexe, dincolo de măsurările tradiţionale ale producţiei economice. Sistemul european de conturi naţionale şi regionale oferă un cadru integrat şi coerent pentru toate statisticile economice, care ar trebui să fi e completat cu alţi indicatori pentru a oferi informaţii mai cuprinzătoare pentru elaborarea de politici şi pentru luarea deciziilor. Protejarea, conservarea şi ameliorarea mediului înconjurător pentru


generaţiile actuale şi viitoare, precum şi combaterea efectelor schimbărilor climatice se afl ă printre primele priorităţi de pe agenda europeană şi constituie obiective ale tratatelor. Politici efi cace în respectivele domenii necesită informaţii statistice din diferite domenii. Întreprinderile europene sunt vizate de multe dintre politicile Uniunii. În plus, sunt responsabile pentru furnizarea de date de bază. Există o cerere foarte puternică de statistici privind întreprinderile, în general, pentru a sprijini procesul decizional, şi pentru a ajuta cetăţenii europeni şi întreprinderile să înţeleagă impactul respectivelor politici, făcând diferenţă între întreprinderile mari, întreprinderile de dimensiune intermediară şi întreprinderile mici şi mijlocii, pentru care există o nevoie din ce în ce mai mare de statistici detaliate şi armonizate. În acelaşi timp, este nevoie să se reducă sarcina administrativă şi de raportare. Cetăţenii europeni se afl ă în centrul politicilor Uniunii. Există, de asemenea, o cerere foarte mare de statistici sociale, în general, pentru a sprijini procesul decizional şi a monitoriza rezultatele politicilor sociale, dar şi pentru a ajuta cetăţenii europeni să înţeleagă impactul acestor politici asupra vieţii şi bunăstării lor. Metodele de producţie ale statisticilor europene au ca element central gestionarea calităţii în cadrul Sistemului Statistic European, respectiv un sistem de management al calităţii în Sistemul Statistic European bazat pe Codul European de Bune Practici în Statistică. Obiectivele specifi ce din Programul Statistic European se concretizează prin producerea de statistici în toate domeniile. Enumerăm câteva, considerate mai importante : - Indicatori actualizaţi pentru Strategia Europa 2020 (în domeniile

ocupării forţei de muncă, cercetării şi dezvoltării, inovării, energiei/schimbărilor climatice, educaţiei, mediului, protecţiei sociale, incluziunii sociale şi sărăciei);

- Furnizarea de date statistice privind dezechilibrele macroeconomice;

- Furnizarea de date statistice pentru consolidarea Pactului de stabilitate şi de creştere, vizând în mod specifi c producerea şi furnizarea unor statistici de înaltă calitate referitoare la datoria publică;

- Punerea în aplicare a unui management solid al calităţii în cadrul lanţului de producţie, care să includă şi datele privind fi nanţele publice din amonte şi fl uxurile de lucru subadiacente din statele membre;

- Punerea în aplicare şi compilarea de conturi naţionale anuale şi trimestriale, de conturi regionale anuale în conformitate cu Sistemul


European de Conturi; - Producerea de indicatori privind distribuţia veniturilor şi a

consumului în cadrul gospodăriilor populaţiei; - Elaborarea de statistici prompte şi de calitate privind preţurile, în

special a indicilor armonizaţi ai preţurilor de consum; - Elaborarea unui cadru conceptual pentru măsurarea calităţii vieţii şi

a nivelului de bunăstare; - Elaborarea unui sistem coerent de conturi de mediu sub forma

unor „conturi satelit” ale principalelor conturi naţionale, furnizând informaţii cu privire la emisiile atmosferice, consumul de energie, fl uxurile şi rezervele de resurse naturale materiale şi de apă, comerţul cu materii prime de bază şi materii prime pe cale de epuizare, taxele de mediu şi cheltuielile cu protecţia mediului, incluzând, eventual, creşterea economică durabilă/achiziţiile publice în acest domeniu;

- Furnizarea anuală şi infra-anuală de informaţii statistice şi indicatori statistici privind întreprinderile;

- Reechilibrarea colectărilor de informaţii statistice pentru comerţul cu mărfuri şi comerţul cu servicii, îmbunătăţind gradul de disponibilitate a datelor privind serviciile, precum şi acţiuni menite să reechilibreze informaţiile statistice privind serviciile şi mărfurile;

- Furnizarea de statistici în domenii-cheie privind performanţa în materie de inovare şi cercetare-dezvoltare prin utilizarea extinsă a registrelor de brevete şi prin extinderea cercetării, a utilizării statistice de microdate individuale;

- Furnizarea de statistici privind cererea şi oferta în domeniul turismului prin optimizarea colectării datelor şi printr-o mai bună integrare a datelor din domeniul turismului cu date din alte domenii;

- Furnizarea de statistici privind utilizarea resurselor şi efi cienţa utilizării resurselor bazate, cât mai mult posibil, pe datele deja colectate;

- Dezvoltarea statisticilor furnizate în materie de educaţie şi formare profesională, inclusiv raţionalizarea şi modernizarea anchetei privind educaţia adulţilor;

- Punerea în aplicare a acţiunilor programului de lucru privind integrarea statisticilor privind migraţia;

- Furnizarea de indicatori privind calitatea vieţii pentru măsurarea progresului societăţilor;

- Începerea pregătirilor pentru următoare runda de recensământ


(programată pentru 2021); - Dezvoltarea în continuare, întreţinerea şi funcţionarea infrastructurii

pentru informaţii spaţiale în Comunitatea Europeană (INSPIRE), instituită prin Directiva 2007/2/CE a Parlamentului European şi a Consiliului ( 1 ), în special prin geoportalul Uniunii;

- Un set de statistici de mediu principale privind resursele, de exemplu, privind deşeurile şi reciclarea, apa, rezervele de materii prime, serviciile ecosistemice şi biodiversitatea la nivel naţional şi, acolo unde este posibil, la nivel regional, precum şi un set de statistici esenţiale privind schimbările climatice pentru sprijinirea acţiunilor şi politicilor de adaptare şi a măsurilor de atenuare, la toate nivelurile pertinente, de la cel local până la nivelul Uniunii;

- Revizuirea şi simplifi carea colectării de date în domeniul agriculturii în conformitate cu politica agricolă comună revizuită după anul 2013;

- Satisfacerea nevoilor utilizatorilor în ceea ce priveşte raportarea calităţii;

- Standardizarea rapoartelor privind calitatea în diverse domenii statistice la nivelul Uniunii;

- Utilizarea sporită a datelor administrative adecvate în toate domeniile statistice;

- Creşterea gradului de implicare a Comisiei (Eurostat) şi a autorităţilor naţionale de statistică în conceperea înregistrărilor administrative;

- Elaborarea şi punerea în aplicare a unei infrastructuri informatice de referinţă fl exibile şi a unor standarde tehnice pentru îmbunătăţirea interoperabilităţii, schimbului de date şi metadate, precum şi a modelării comune a datelor;

- Utilizarea de instrumente informatice standard pentru toate procesele statistice;

- Sprijinirea efi cace şi efi cientă a parteneriatului în cadrul Sistemului Statistic European;

- Instituirea unei infrastructuri integrate sigure pentru accesul la microdatele Uniunii;

- Creşterea ofertei de seturi de microdate destinate cercetării statistice în conformitate cu legislaţia naţională şi legislaţia Uniunii privind confi denţialitatea datelor;

- Exercitarea rolului conducător al Sistemului Statistic European pe scena internaţională.


*** Institutul Naţional de Statistică urmăreşte, prin Programul Statistic Naţional Anual1, să contribuie la realizarea Programului Statistic European, în convergenţă cu nevoile naţionale, având în vedere: - Crearea unui mediu instituţional şi organizaţional care să promoveze efi cacitatea şi credibilitatea în producerea şi difuzarea de statistici ofi ciale, inclusiv statistici regionale bazate pe nomenclatorul comun al unităţilor teritoriale de statistică (NUTS); - Respectarea normelor, obiectivelor şi bunelor practici europene în procesele utilizate pentru a organiza, colecta, procesa şi disemina statistici ofi ciale şi depunerea eforturilor pentru creşterea reputaţiei de bună gestionare şi efi cacitate, de a consolida credibilitatea, relevanţa şi consistenţa acestor statistici; - Garantarea explicită şi implicită a faptului că statisticile ofi ciale respectă normele de calitate europene şi răspund nevoilor utilizatorilor, respectiv ale Administraţiei Prezidenţiale, Guvernului, autorităţilor şi instituţiilor publice, institutelor de cercetare, organizaţiilor societăţii civile, întreprinderilor şi ale publicului larg; - Cooperarea interactivă cu organismele statistice la nivel internaţional şi naţional, în scopul promovării utilizării conceptelor, clasifi cărilor şi metodelor internaţionale, respectând principiile fundamentale ale statisticilor ofi ciale adoptate de către Comisia pentru Statistică a Organizaţiei Naţiunilor Unite (la 14 aprilie 1994), în special în vederea asigurării bunei coerenţe, consistenţei şi comparabilităţii; - Asigurarea, atunci când se justifi că şi solicită asistenţă tehnică necesară în materie de metodologie şi organizare statistică; - Preocupare pentru calitatea informaţiilor statistice, pentru credibilitatea şi comparabilitatea acestora, acordându-se atenţie asigurării continuităţii cronologice a datelor colectate şi posibilităţii de prelucrare.

Date şi informaţiile prezentate de Direcţia de

Afaceri Europene şi Cooperare Internaţională / INS România

1. Programul Statistic Naţional Anual pentru 2014 reprezintă instrumentul de bază prin care Institutul Naţional de Statistică şi ceilalţi producători de statistici ofi ciale sunt autorizaţi să rea-lizeze colectarea, stocarea, procesarea, analiza şi diseminarea datelor statistice ofi ciale.


Realizarea statisticii ca instituţie publică, permanentă a statului după Unirea Principatelor - câteva evenimente importante din istoria statisticii ofi ciale

româneşti (155 de ani, 1859-2014)

Secvenţe dedicate Unirii

În Principatele Române, în toamna anului 1857, Divanurile ad-hoc (adunări cu caracter deliberativ, au fost convocate pentru a prezenta doleanţele naţionale). Principala doleanţă a fost unirea celor două ţări, Moldova şi Ţara Românească, într-un singur stat. În urma alegerilor (5ianuarie 1859 în Moldova şi 24 ianuarie 1859 în Ţara Românească), România modernă a devenit realitate. A fost ales ca domnitor în ambele principate Alexandru Ioan Cuza. Alexandru Ioan Cuza a devenit, după alegeri, primul domnitor al Principatelor Unite (1859-1862) şi al statului naţional România (1862-1866). Cuza a obţinut, prin demersurile sale, recunoaşterea unirii din partea marilor puteri. În timpul lui Cuza a fost desăvârşită Unirea Principatelor printr-o serie de acte de guvernământ şi s-a realizat un amplu program de reforme în direcţia modernizării ţării.

În noile condiţii create de unirea Moldovei cu Ţara Românească, organizarea unei statistici ofi ciale de stat, care să asigure diversitatea informaţiilor, devenise o necesitate stringentă. Dionise Pop Marţian argumenta necesitatea creării unui organ de statistică ofi cială: „Noi nu ne putem imagina cum un guvern conştient poate decreta o măsură administrativă fără să aibă convingerea că această măsură este necesară în nenumărate situaţii şi care sânt aceste situaţii dacă nu acelea în care se face apel la date sau la cunoştinţe statistice” Alexandru Ioan Cuza semnează Ordonanţa Domnească nr. 276/1859 prin care se consfi nţeşte crearea statisticii ofi ciale româneşti. Statistica românească exista, prelucra şi producea informaţii încă înainte de anul Unirii Principatelor. După o serie de demersuri preliminare, de acumulări şi prin existenţa


unor personalităţi remarcabile, imediat după 24 ianuarie 1859, statistica a făcut pasul la condiţia de instituţie permanentă cu atribuţii bine defi nite. Dionisie Pop Marţian (1829-1865) a fost ctitorul primei instituţii româneşti de statistică, conducător al acesteia în perioada 1859-1865. Ion Ionescu de la Brad (1818-1891), director, în anul 1859, al statisticii din Moldova, a fost membru de onoare al Academiei Române. Domnitorul Alexandru Ioan Cuza şi sfătuitorii săi apropiaţi, în primul rând Mihail Kogălniceanu şi Nicolae Kretzulescu au avut meritul că au înţeles că Unirea nu va putea deveni efectivă şi durabilă decât dacă ea va fi consolidată prin constituirea acelor structuri administrative care dau coerenţă actului de guvernare. Între aceste structuri, una dintre cele mai importante era statistica, funcţionând ca instituţie publică a statului.

Dionisie Pop Marţian (1829-1865) - economist şi statistician, a creat şi organizat aparatul statistic modern de stat în ţara noastră. A subliniat caracterul de ştiinţă de sine stătătoare a statisticii. A scos în relief marea însemnătate a statisticii pentru opera de guvernare. Socotind că materialul statistic trebuie pus la îndemâna tuturor, a creat în 1860 revista „Analele statistice” - prima publicaţie periodică de statistică românească.

Dionisie Pop Marţian a reprezentat România la Congresul Internaţional de Statistică de la Berlin (1863).

Ion Ionescu de la Brad (1818-1891) - economist, statistician şi agronom. A condus Direcţia de statistică a Moldovei. A organizat şi s-a ocupat de efectuarea primului Recensământ al populaţiei şi agriculturii din 1859-1860. A conceput o schemă a indicatorilor fenomenelor din obiectul statisticii, un sistem de indicatori pentru caracterizarea vieţii social-economice. A remarcat rolul important dat de matematică în metodologia statistică.

Ion Ionescu de la Brad a scris lucrarea „Povăţuiri pentru catagrafi a Moldovei”, cu un capitol intitulat „Elemente de statistică”. Din metodologia cercetărilor monografi ce sunt de menţionat monografi ile sale din practica statisticii din ţara noastră privind agricultura din judeţele Dorohoi, Mehedinţi şi Putna.

Ion Ionescu de la Brad este considerat un precursor al cercetării monografi ce din ţara noastră.

Crearea statului modern român a constituit punctul de plecare şi pârghia de susţinere a tutror eforturilor depuse pentru desăvârşirea unităţii naţionale şi statale, de atracţie pentru toate provinciile româneşti ce se găseau încă sub stăpânire străină. „Când s-a ales Cuza domn - scria Alexandru Papiu Ilarian - entuziasmul românilor din Transilvania era, poate, mai mare decât în Principate”.

Ulterior, la 1 decembrie 1918, la Alba Iulia s-a proclamat unirea tuturor românilor, „pentru toate veacurile”.


Recunoaşterea de câtre autorităţi a rolului statisticii ca instituţie fundamentală a statului rezultă şi din faptul că, la nici două luni de la consemnarea Marii Uniri, la 1 decembrie 1918, Decretul Lege nr. 122 din 25 ianuarie 1919 stipula crearea Direcţiunii Generale a Statisticii, fi ind reunite serviciile de statistică ce funcţionau ca organisme independente la ministere. S-a creat o reţea teritorială stabilă şi permanentă, fi ind asigurat un mod unitar de culegere şi verifi care a datelor. Statistica românească dobândeşte un prestigiu de necontestat. Statistica românească interbelică s-a regăsit inclusiv în nenumărate publicaţii editate, în conducerea şi organizarea unor recensăminte importante.

Una dintre caracteristicle statisticii româneşti este viziunea unitară la scara tutror fenomenelor demografi ce şi social-economice pentru întreaga ţară şi la nivelul structurilor teritoriale.

Alte câteva evenimente şi realizări

Numeroase momente de referinţă din evoluţia statisticii româneşti s-au consemnat în decursul anilor, în diferite publicaţii, inclusiv în Revista Română de Statistică. Este de evidenţiat, în opinia noastră, faptul că instituţia centrală de statistică (împreună cu aparatul teritorial în subordine) a fost reorganizată, în diferite perioade, fi ind adaptat pentru realizarea unor lucrări importante de interes naţional: recensămintele populaţiei şi locuinţelor (din 1966, 1977, 1992, 2002 şi 2011), reevaluarea generală a fondurilor fi xe din economia naţională, clasifi carea ramurilor, recensământul stocurilor, recensămintele animalelor, cercetarea bugetelor de familie, clasifi carea produselor şi serviciilor, înregistrarea forţei de muncă, balanţa legăturilor dintre ramuri, nomenclatoarele unităţilor (SIRUES şi SIRUTA), alte lucrări curente complexe de natură metodologică. Au fost înfi inţate staţii de prelucrare mecanizată a datelor, cât şi primul Centru de Calcul Electronic. S-au editat importante publicaţii statistice, inclusiv Revista de Statistică - cu apariţii periodice şi valoroase volume cuprinzând comunicările susţinute la consfătuirile ştiinţifi ce şi la Seminarul naţional de statistică „Octav Onicescu”. Pentru diferite categori de utilizatori au fost elaborate lucrări de comparaţii internaţionale, breviare şi numeroase documentare cu serii de date importante. În continuare, statistica ofi cială din România a avut ca obiectiv - începând din 1990, reevaluarea sistemului de indicatori macroeconomici, reverifi carea şi actualizarea seriile de date statistice pentru toate domeniile de activitate. Într-un nou cadru legal, s-a urmărit refl ectarea principiilor fundamentale ale funcţionării statisticii ofi ciale. Au fost elaborate - prin Programele PHARE - importante proiecte specifi ce din diferite domenii. S-a modernizat infrastructura IT a instituţiei şi pentru direcţiile teritoriale. A fost stabilit Programul cercetărilor


statistice anuale şi infraanuale: lucrări de sinteză şi studii cuprinse în importante publicaţii statistice editate la tipografi a instituţiei. A fost extinsă utilizarea surselor administrative de date şi informaţii. S-a creat Centrul Naţional de Pregătire în Statistică. Au fost utile participări la diferite stagii de pregătire la EUROSTAT. Procesul de diseminare a datelor şi informaţiilor statistice ofi ciale s-a desfăşurat permanent, în concordanţă cu prevederile legale în vigoare privind organizarea şi funcţionarea statisticii ofi ciale în România, cu prevederile din Codul de practici al statisticilor europene.

*** De subliniat că, în ultimii ani, întreaga activitate desfăşurată a avut şi are la bază acte legislative deosebit de importante: Legea nr. 226/5 iunie 2009 (actualizată) privind organizarea şi funcţionarea statisticii ofi ciale în România (completările şi modifi cările fi ind aduse prin Legea nr. 211 din 11 noiembrie 2010) şi Hotărârea pentru modifi carea şi completarea HG nr. 957 privind organizarea şi funcţionarea INS (nr. 546 din 30 iulie 2013), publicate în Monitorul Ofi cial al României. În 2013 s-au stabilit şi o serie de priorităţi ale INS, dintre care facem referire la activitatea de optimizare a sistemului de diseminare a datelor statistice şi comunicări cu utilizatorii, creşterea ratei de raportare a datelor statistice prin portalul WEBESOP, îmbunătăţirea utilizatorii surselor de date administrative, asigurarea indicatorilor statistici necesari deciziilor la nivel local.

Grupaj realizat deCristina Sacală

Ioan B. Gâlceavă

(Volumul „Cunoaşte România – membră a Uniunii Europene” - Editura Economică, 2007)

(„Dicţionarul Enciclopedic Român” - 1962)(Revista „Analele statistice” - prima publicaţie perioadică statistică românească.

Anul apariţiei - 1860)(„Dicţionar statistic economic”

-sub redacţia dr. Constantin Ionescu, DCS/1969)(Volumul „Cunoaşte România”

- Editura Economică - 2004)(Lucrarea „Istoria statisticii româneşti - evenimente, oameni, fapte”,

INS - 2009)


Impresii legate de stagiatura la Institutul Naţional de Statistică din România Numele meu este Andrea Hajdar şi lucrez în Unitatea de Management al Proiectelor din cadrul Ofi ciului de Statistică al Serbiei (SORS). Aplicarea pentru o perioadă de stagiu la Institutul Naţional de Statistică din România (INS) mi-a permis să învăţ într-o organizaţie profesională dintr-o ţară vecină care a trecut printr-o perioadă de tranziţie nu cu mult timp în urmă şi să împărtăşesc experienţa şi cunoştinţele practice din domeniul proiectelor europene după întoarcerea mea. Stagiul meu pe Managementul Proiectelor Europene a început pe 9 septembrie 2013 în cadrul Programului MB IPA 2011. Am fost repartizată la Unitatea de Implementare a Proiectelor (UIP) din cadrul Direcţiei de Afaceri Europene şi Cooperare Internaţională. UIP, printre altele, răspunde de planifi carea şi implementarea proiectelor tehnice de cooperare în domeniul statisticilor ofi ciale. Stagiul la INS România mi-a permis să înţeleg mai bine planifi carea proiectelor fi nanţate din fonduri europene, fazele de implementare şi procedurile interne ale managementului proiectelor. INS are la dispoziţia sa un număr de proiecte şi utilizarea Fondurilor Structurale şi de Coeziune, aşa că a fost o bună oportunitate pentru mine să dobândesc cunoştinţe practice pe care să le pot aplica în Unitatea mea de Management al Proiectelor din Serbia. Aş vrea să menţionez că munca mea la SORS diferă puţin de cea de la UIP. Aceasta a fost o foarte bună ocazie sa-mi completez cunoştinţele pe care le pot aplica în munca mea viitoare şi să-mi îmbunătăţesc aptitudinile profesionale. Mai mult, am participat activ la munca desfăşurată în cadrul UIP, sub îndrumarea mentorului meu, doamna Ana Maria Ranta, atunci când mi s-a dat ocazia să fac cunoştinţă cu diferite proiecte de Grant. Pe durata acestui stagiu am fost familiarizată cu structura ierarhică şi organizaţională a instituţiei gazdă. Am afl at cum este organizată unitatea, care sunt principalele activităţi şi cum sunt împărţite responsabilităţile – în principal, activitatea zilnică a Unităţii de Implementare a Proiectelor. Pe parcursul stagiului m-am familiarizat cu următoarele proiecte: Programul Phare, Ancheta de Conjunctură (BCS), Proiectul Simstat ESSnet, Portalul


e-Survey Online (e-SOP) de preluare a datelor statistice, Programul Conturilor de mediu şi MEETS (Modernization of European Enterprises and Trade Statistics). În principal, munca mea zilnică consta în asistarea colegilor la diferite proiecte, ca de exemplu monitorizarea costurilor de personal alocat acţiunii, verifi carea fi şelor de prezenţă, a fl uturaşilor de salariu şi a orelor de lucru şi apoi introducerea datelor în tabelul centralizator de calcul intern. Participarea la aceste acţiuni şi la diferite proiecte mi-a oferit o perspectivă asupra procedurilor şi calculelor fi nanciare efectuate pentru a monitoriza proiectele şi asupra ultimelor cerinţe ale Eurostat-ului (costuri de deplasare şi şedere, utilizarea Fondurilor Structurale) ce trebuie îndeplinite de SORS in viitor. Mi-a plăcut foarte mult atmosfera de lucru şi modul în care sarcinile, solicitările, ideile şi rezultatele muncii sunt comunicate între colegi. Chiar de la începutul stagiului am simţit că benefi ciez de sprijin deplin din partea tuturor colegilor în ceea ce priveşte munca mea în unitate. Am fost primită cu foarte multă prietenie şi ospitalitate şi daca apărea ceva care imi era necunoscut sau despre care aveam dubii, îmi puteam întreba oricând colegii care au mai multa experienţă. Mi s-a părut a fi foarte folositor să discut şi să sa fac schimb de experienţă cu colegii în ceea ce priveşte soluţiile de prevenire a difi cultăţilor în implementarea proiectelor, cum ar fi întârzierile în ducerea la bun sfârşit a activităţilor în comparaţie cu programul de contract şi riscul de întârziere în depunerea documentaţiei de rambursare. A fost o metodă excelentă prin care mi-am putut exprima propriile păreri şi prin care le-am putut asculta şi pe ale colegilor în ceea ce priveşte problemele apărute în munca de zi cu zi şi modul acestora de rezolvare. Contactele dobândite pe durata acestui stagiu vor fi cu siguranţă foarte preţioase pentru dezvoltarea mea statistică şi socială din anii următori. Este trist că nu poţi avea prima impresie de două ori, iar prima mea impresie despre Bucureşti, cum de altfel şi despre Institutul Naţional de Statistică, este cât de imens este totul! Văd Bucureşti-ul ca pe un oraş captivant de opusuri şi contraste arhitecturale, artistice, sociale şi culturale. Foarte impresionant despre Bucureşti este numărul de lacuri şi de parcuri frumoase împrăştiate prin oraş. Pe fi nal, trebuie să laud atmosfera de lucru foarte bună şi comunicarea din birou care mi-au făcut stagiul foarte plăcut şi am reuşit să îmi formez o imagine mai clară despre organizarea muncii într-un sistem aşa de mare ca INS România. Mă simt foarte privilegiată că am avut oportunitatea să lucrez cu oameni foarte ospitalieri şi prietenoşi. A fost o experienţă pe care sigur nu o voi uita şi care mă va face să zâmbesc când îmi voi aduce aminte.


IMPRESSIONS ABOUT WORKING IN NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF STATISTICS OF

ROMANIA My name is Andrea Hajdar, and I work in Project Management Unit in Statistical Offi ce of the Republic of Serbia (SORS). Applying to traineeship in the National Institute of Statistics (NIS) Romania enabled me to learn in a professional organization in a neighbouring country that passed through a transition period not so long time ago and share the experience and practical knowledge in the fi eld of European projects after my return. My traineeship on European Projects Management started on the 9th of September 2013 under the framework of MB IPA 2011 Programme. I was assigned to the Programme Implementation Unit (PIU) as part of the Department of European Affairs and International Co-operation. PIU is among other things, in charge of planning and implementing technical cooperation projects in the fi eld of offi cial statistics. Traineeship in the NIS Romania allowed me to get better acquainted with the preparation of projects fi nanced from the EU funds, the implementation phases and internal procedures of project management. NIS has at its disposal a number of projects and the use of Structural and Cohesion Funds, so it was a good opportunity for me to acquire practical knowledge that I can apply in my Project Management Unit in Serbia. I would like to mention that my work in SORS slightly differs from the work comprised in PIU. This was great opportunity for me to complement my knowledge that I can apply in my future work as well as to enhance my professional skills. Moreover, I actively participated in the ongoing work of PIU, under the guidance of my mentor Ms Ana Maria Ranta, when I was given opportunity to get introduced with different Grant projects. During this traineeship I was getting acquainted with the hierarchical and organizational structure of the hosting institution. I got to know how the unit was organized, the main activities and how the responsibilities are shared - basically the content of Programme Implementation Units daily work. During my traineeship I got acquainted with following projects: Phare Programme, Business and Consumer Survey (BCS), Simstat ESS net project, e-Survey Online Portal (e-SOP) for takeover of statistical data, Environmental accounts and MEETS Programme. Most of my daily work in this traineeship was assisting my colleagues in different projects as for example monitoring the costs of staff assigned to the action, checking timesheets, salary slips and working hours and afterwards introducing the data into the internal calculation summarizing table that is


used. Working on these tasks and different projects gave me insight in fi nancial procedures and calculations used for monitoring of the projects as well as an insight in the latest Eurostat requirements (travel and subsistence scales, Structural Funds use) that are to be fulfi lled in SORS in the future. I liked the working atmosphere and the manner in which the tasks, requests, ideas and results of the work were communicated between colleagues very much. From the very beginning of my traineeship I felt that I had full support of all of my colleagues regarding my work in the unit. I was welcomed very friendly and hospitably and if something was not familiar to me or I had some doubts, I was always free to ask colleagues that are more experienced than I am. I fi nd it very useful to discuss and exchange experiences with my colleagues regarding the solutions for preventing the diffi culties in project implementation such as delays in carrying out activities compared to the contract schedule and the risk of delay in submitting reimbursement documentation. It was an excellent way to express my own and to hear opinions of other colleagues about the problems in every day work and how to solve them. The contacts acquired during my traineeship will certainly be a precious part of my statistical and social networking in the upcoming years. It is said that you can not have the fi rst impression twice, and my fi rst impression about Bucharest as well as National Institute of Statistics Romania was how huge and wide everything is! The Bucharest, I percieve like captivating city of the architectural, artistic, social and cultural opposites and contrasts. Very impressive about Bucharest are the number of lakes and beautiful parks scattered around the city. For the end, I have to praise the very good working atmosphere and communication in the offi ce that made my traineship very pleasant and I managed to get a broader picture of work organization in big system such as NIS Romania. I feel very privileged that I had the opportunity to work with really hostile and friendly people. This was an experience that I will certainly not forget and it will make me smile, anytime I remember it.


Responsabil de număr: Mariana Pietreanu

Director adjunct: Cristina SACALĂEchipa logistică:

Oana NICOLAU, Nicolae IONESCU, Gheorghe VAIDA-MUNTEAN

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