REVISITING SECURITY AND ENERGY GEOPOLITICS OF SOUTH CAUCASUS: A TURKISH PERSPECTIVEAssoc. Prof. Atilla Sandıklı, President of BILGESAMErdem Kaya, Research Fellow at BILGESAM

THE LOCATION OF THE CAUCASUS

THE SOUTH CAUCASUS AT REGIONAL AND GLOBAL STAGE

• US and EU • Euro-Atlantic security

system• NATO’s eastward

enlargement• Russia’s return • The Eurasian Union &

Customs Union• Turkey-Iran rivalry• Iran-Israel rivalry

REASONS THAT MAKE THE REGION IMPORTANT FOR TURKEY

•Security risks emanating from the unsettled disputes

•Rivalry on energy resources and routes

SECURİTY RISKS

• The Armenian invasion of Azerbaijani territories

• Armenia has no future plan to withdraw from the Nagorno-Karabakh and adjacent regions

• Security Council resolutions do not work

• Minsk Group is not effective• International community has

no pressure on Armenia• Russian mediation helps the

Armenian side

SECURİTY RISKS

• Separatist regions in Georgia: Abkhazia and South Ossetia

• The new status quo in the aftermath of the August War of 2008

• The entities in Abkhazia and South Ossetia survive under Russian protection

RİVALRY ON ENERGY RESOURCES AND ROUTES

• Competition over the operation and delivery routes of Caspian oil and gas resources• Russia’s efforts to stay monopoly and resurgence

to control the routes • Azeri oil and gas, Kazakh oil, Turkmen gas • Europe’s search for different suppliers • Western companies’ involvement

RİVALRY ON ENERGY RESOURCES AND ROUTES

• Baku-Supsa oil pipeline, Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline, Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum gas pipeline

RİVALRY ON ENERGY RESOURCES AND ROUTES

• Russia’s policy of disuniting Europe, Nord Stream, South Stream pipeline projects• Nabucco project

turned out to be impossible• TANAP project

TURKEY AND THE SOUTH CAUCASUS

• Turkey-Azerbaijan-Georgia relations improved• Energy links increased• Cooperation in

defense industry is developing• A trilateral group is

emerging

TURKEY AND THE SOUTH CAUCASUS

• Reconciliation attempt in 2009 between Turkey and Armenia• Temporary chill

between Turkey and Azerbaijan• Protocols could not

produce results

ARMENİA’S GOALS FOR 2015

• Armenia’s claims regarding the 1915 evens• Diaspora’s activities• Preparations for the 2015, the first anniversary of

the 1915 events• Attitude of US Congress• Armenia will try to secure Vatican’s and pro-Israeli

lobbies for the 2015 goals

ARMENİA’S BUDDİNG TALYSH POLİCY

• Armenia’s Talysh policy against Azerbaijan

• Pro-Talysh propaganda

• Iran’s support

PKK/KCK IN THE SOUTH CAUCASUS

• PKK/KCK’s activities in Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh• Fund-raising activities • PKK/KCK operates in South Caucasus under the

guise of seemingly civilian institutions, associations and foundations.• Attempt to recruit Yezidis in Armenia• Certain Armenian political parties are known to

have links with the terrorist PKK/KCK

END OF THE PRESENTATION