Review of Northeast Texas 2015 Ozone Season · Effect of Excluding January 28, 2015 •If January 28, 2015 were determined to be an exceptional event, day would be dropped from design

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Review of Northeast Texas 2015 Ozone Season

Presentation to the NETAC Policy and Technical Committees

December 9, 2015

Sue Kemball-Cook, Lynsey Parker, Thomas Pavlovic and Greg Yarwood

[email protected]

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Today’s Presentation

• Update on ozone Design Values and trends

• Implications for attainment

• Review of 2015 ozone season

Northeast Texas CAMS Monitors

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• In 2015, decrease at Karnack to 62 ppb, increase at Longview to 68 ppb, no change at Tyler (66 ppb)

• Lowest 4th high values ever recorded at Tyler and Karnack4

2015: 70 ppb

2008: 75 ppb

1997: 84 ppb

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• 2015 had the lowest recorded design values for all monitors

• Design values for all three monitors less than the 70 ppb 2015 NAAQS

2015: 70 ppb

2008: 75 ppb

1997: 84 ppb

4th High MDA8 Ozone Needed to Attain the 70 ppb NAAQS in 2016

• EPA will use 2014-2016 data in attainment designations under the 2015 NAAQS

• Since 2008, Longview has had 1 year (2011) with 4th high MDA8 >78 ppb

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4th High MDA8 Ozone Concentrations

Longview (C19) Tyler (C82) Karnack (C85)

Needed in 2016

for Attainment≤ 78 ppb ≤ 80 ppb ≤ 84 ppb

Range since 2008 66 – 82 ppb 66 – 78 ppb 62 – 76 ppb

2015 Days with Daily Max 8-hour Ozone > 65 ppb

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Shading shows monitor with highest value of daily maximum 8-hour ozone.

Daily Maximum 8-hour Ozone (ppb)

Day Longview Tyler Karnack

January 28 61 68 58

April 30 61 66 58

May 1 70 63 53

June 6 83 59 47

August 3 68 62 58

August 16 66 61 51

August 27 67 56 53

August 28 71 64 54

August 29 61 67 63

September 23 60 73 53

4th high value 68 66 62

• 10 Days with MDA8 > 65 ppb at a minimum of one East Texas monitor

2015 Days with 8-hour Ozone > 65 ppb

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• Orange shading shows days exceeding the 2015 NAAQS of 70 ppb

• At 65 ppb threshold, transport from the south becomes more important

• Evaluated all days for possible fire impacts

– January 28 should be analyzed as a potential exceptional event

DayMonitor and MDA8 (ppb)

Power Plant

Impact

≥60 ppb Regional

Contribution

Possible HRVOC Impact

Unknown Local Contribution

Comments

28-Jan Tyler (68) xAtypically warm winter day, possible fire impact, S to SW winds

30-Apr Tyler (66) x x Unusual westerly wind direction, DFW impact at Tyler

1-May Longview (70) x xSlow northerly winds, rapid ozone formation, little SO2, likely HRVOC impact

6-June Longview (83) xSlow S to SE winds, SO2 present with ozone, likely coal-fired power plant impact

3-Aug Longview (68) x x xHigh regional background, shifting, stagnant winds, some SO2, multiple local sources

16-Aug Longview (66) x xModerate regional background, slow shifting winds,moderate SO2 indicates coal-fired power plant impact

27-Aug Longview (67) x x xModerate regional background, slow shifting winds,moderate SO2 indicates coal-fired power plant impact, other local source, possible HRVOC impact

28-Aug Longview (71) x x xModerate regional background, S to SE winds, moderate SO2, coal-fired power plant plume impact, other local source, possible HRVOC impact

29-Aug Tyler(67) x xHigh regional background, moderately fast S to SW winds

23-Sep Tyler (73) xModerate regional background, easterly winds,unidentified source impacts.

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REVIEW OF 2015 OZONE SEASON

January 28, 2015: 68 ppb

• Background ozone in East Texas ~60 ppb; highest ozone in Northeast Texas

• Tyler ozone peak at 8 pm, well after sunset at ~6 pm

• Southerly winds, strongest at Tyler

Back Trajectories Ending at 8 PM

TylerLongview

Karnack

64

48

71

71

38

January 28, 2015Satellite Fire Detections

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January 28, 2015

• Elevated PM2.5readings in the morning and late afternoon at Karnack– Consistent with

intermittent presence of smoke

– No PM2.5 monitoring at Tyler

• Satellite image consistent with smoke in the region– Does not indicate

whether particulates were at surface or aloft

Wildfires and SmokeJanuary 28, 2015

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HYSPLIT: 2500m

48hr BACKTRAJECTORY

HYSPLIT 1000m

48hr BACKTRAJECTORY

HYSPLIT 500m

48hr BACKTRAJECTORY

Backward Trajectories

Ending at 2AM UTC Jan 29

Fire Source: http://satepsanone.nesdis.noaa.gov/FIRE/fire.html

HYSPLIT 48-hr backtrajectories: http://ready.arl.noaa.gov/HYSPLIT_traj.php

http://satepsanone.nesdis.noaa.gov/FIRE/fire.html

http://ready.arl.noaa.gov/HYSPLIT_traj.php

January 28, 2015 Temperature

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January 2015 Temperature plots at KTYR station.

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/index_20150128.html

Date Daily

Max

temp at

Tyler

KTYR

Jan 28, 2015 80 F

Climatalogical

January

56 F

Climatalogical

May

82 F

January 28, 2015: Summary

• Unusual January high ozone day– Low sun angle, 1-hour average ozone maximum occurs 2 hours after

sunset– Atypically warm conditions

• All 3 monitors ~60 ppb throughout much of the day– Some Houston, Beaumont area and NW Louisiana monitors ~60 ppb

• Weather patterns not consistent with stratospheric ozone intrusion

• Late peak at Tyler ~8 pm suggests an additional source impact– Presence of numerous fires and smoke in the region suggests fire

impact– Suspect combination of temperatures conducive to ozone formation

coupled with potential fire impact

• January 28 should be evaluated further as a possible exceptional event

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Effect of Excluding January 28, 2015

• If January 28, 2015 were determined to be an exceptional event, day would be dropped from design value calculation

• Next highest MDA8 is August 2: 65 ppb

– No change to 2013-2015 design value

– Could affect 2014-2016 design value

Could have 4th high of 81 ppb and still attain rather than 80 ppb

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Four highest MDA8 at Northeast Texas monitors in 2015

April 30, 2015: 66 ppb

• High regional background ~60 ppb• Moderate westerly winds at surface• Unusual westerly wind direction

with back trajectories extending over DFW

• Late afternoon peak at Tyler– Little SO2 at Tyler at time of peak

Back Trajectories Ending at 5 PM

TylerLongview

Karnack

April 30, 201524-hr Backtrajectories

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Tyler

C82

Tyler

C82

April 30, 201524-hr Backtrajectories

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C19

Location 8hr-O3

(ppb)

1hr-O3

(max-ppb/time)

Longview 61 63/3pm

Tyler 66 70/5pm

Karnack 58 61/3pm

Longview

C19

Longview

Upper Level Weather Charts April 30 am

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Upper Level Weather Charts April 30 pm

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Surface Weather Charts April 30 am

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Surface Weather Charts April 30 pm

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Satellite Fire/Smoke Detections

• Also, a large area of light-density smoke is visible in a similar pattern as yesterday, extending from the Canadian/US border down to the Gulf Coast of Texas. Areas affected include: Manitoba, Ontario, North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, Kansas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, and Texas. This smoke originates from the agricultural burns that have been taking place the last few days around the Canadian/US border recently. High AOD most likely due to smoke for was seen over most of the afore mentioned states as indicated by GAPS animation (bottom) – Smog Blog http://alg.umbc.edu/usaq/archives/2015_04.html

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http://alg.umbc.edu/usaq/archives/2015_04.html

April 30, 2015

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HYSPLIT: 2500m

48hr BACKTRAJECTORY

HYSPLIT 1000m

48hr BACKTRAJECTORY

HYSPLIT 500m

48hr BACKTRAJECTORY





April 30, 2015

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HYSPLIT: 2500m

48hr BACKTRAJECTORY

HYSPLIT 1000m

48hr BACKTRAJECTORY

HYSPLIT 500m

48hr BACKTRAJECTORY





April 30, 2015

• Elevated PM2.5

in the morning and afternoon at Karnack

• Slow westerly winds

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April 30, 2015: Summary

• Unusual westerly wind direction

• Smoke present over entire region, extending north to U.S. Canada border

– Possible fires contribute to background ozone

• HYSPLIT plot for Tyler suggests DFW impact

• Late afternoon peak at Tyler suggests impact from transport of DFW urban plume

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May 1, 2015: 70 ppb

• Regional background at ~60 ppb• Stagnant flow, generally northerly

winds• High ozone at Longview

– Rapid ozone formation in the morning hours, little SO2

– 1-hour ozone peaks at Tyler and Karnack 14-19 ppb lower

– Likely HRVOC impact at Longview

Back Trajectories Ending at 10 am

TylerLongview

Karnack

May 1, 2015

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Longview

C19

Location 8hr-O3

(ppb)

1hr-O3

(max-ppb/time)

Longview 70 79/10am

Tyler 63 65/10am

Karnack 53 60/3pm

C82

Tyler

May 1, 2015

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HYSPLIT: 2500m

48hr BACKTRAJECTORY

HYSPLIT 1000m

48hr BACKTRAJECTORY

HYSPLIT 500m

48hr BACKTRAJECTORY





May 1, 2015

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HYSPLIT: 2500m

48hr BACKTRAJECTORY

HYSPLIT 1000m

48hr BACKTRAJECTORY

HYSPLIT 500m

48hr BACKTRAJECTORY





May 1, 2015

• Elevated PM2.5 readings at Karnack

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June 6, 2015: 83 ppb

• Regional background at 47 ppb• Moderate southerly winds at Tyler

– Slower, shifting winds at Longview and Karnack

• High ozone at Longview – 30-47 ppb higher 1-hour ozone at

Longview compared to C82 and C85– Ozone peak coincides with SO2 and

NOx peaks, late Martin Lake impact

Back Trajectories Ending at 4 pm

TylerLongview

Karnack

June 6, 2015

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Longview

C19

Location 8hr-O3

(ppb)

1hr-O3

(max-ppb/time)

Longview 83 96/4pm

Tyler 59 66/noon

Karnack 47 49/10am

August 3, 2015: 68 ppb

• Regional background ~60 ppb

• High ozone throughout East Texas

• Shifting, stagnant winds

• Highest ozone at Longview – Elevated SO2 and NOx in the morning and

peak in SO2 in late afternoon

– Coal-fired power plant influence at Longview

• Possible that multiple local emissions sources affect Longview


Tyler

Longview

Karnack

73

58

63

August 3, 2015

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Longview

C19

Location 8hr-O3

(ppb)

1hr-O3

(max-ppb/time)

Longview 68 73/1pm

Tyler 62 67/5pm

Karnack 58 61/10am

August 16, 2015: 66 ppb

• Regional background ~55 ppb• Moderate wind conditions

– Slow, shifting winds at Longview Tyler

– Slow easterly winds at Karnack

• Highest ozone at Longview – Presence of SO2 suggests

possible power plant impact


Tyler

Longview Karnack

72

45

65

August 16, 2015

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Longview

C19Location 8hr-O3

(ppb)

1hr-O3

(max-ppb/time)

Longview 66 72/4pm

Tyler 61 67/5pm

Karnack 51 58/1pm

82

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August 27, 2015: 67 ppb

• Regional background at 53 ppb• Moderate to low wind conditions

– Slower, shifting winds at Longview

• Highest ozone at Longview – Presence of SO2 and wind direction

suggest possible power plant impact

– Other local sources may contribute, possible HRVOC impact


Tyler

Longview

Karnack,

82

53

57

August 27, 2015

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Longview

C19

Location 8hr-O3

(ppb)

1hr-O3

(max-ppb/time)

Longview 67 82/3pm

Tyler 56 65/5pm

Karnack 53 62/noon

88

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August 28, 2015: 71 ppb

• Regional background ~55 ppb• Slow, SE winds at Longview• Highest ozone at Longview

– Small SO2 increase and wind direction suggest influence from Martin Lake

– Other local sources (O&G) may contribute– HRVOCs may contribute


Tyler Longview

Karnack

88

56

74

August 28, 2015

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Longview

C19

Location 8hr-O3

(ppb)

1hr-O3

(max-ppb/time)

Longview 71 88/2pm

Tyler 64 74/5pm

Karnack 54 58/3pm

August 29, 2015: 67 ppb

• Elevated regional background at 63 ppb

• Moderately strong S-SW winds• Highest ozone at Tyler

– Small amount of SO2

• Unknown local/regional sources contribute to Tyler

Back Trajectories Ending at 1pm

Tyler Longview

Karnack

62

63

72

72

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SO2 Sources South of Tyler

• June 2012 model SO2

• ~3 ppb SO2 at Tyler monitor location45

WA Parrish

Big Brown

Limestone

Twin Oaks

Oak Grove

SandowNot EGUs

August 29, 2015

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Tyler

C82Location 8hr-O3

(ppb)

1hr-O3

(max-ppb/time)

Longview 61 64/4pm

Tyler 67 72/1pm

Karnack 63 70/2pm

September 23, 2015: 73 ppb

• Regional background at 53 ppb

• Moderate northeasterly winds, little SO2

• Highest ozone at Tyler• Tyler urban plume impact

Back Trajectories Ending at noon

Tyler

Longview

Karnack

66

54

79

Satellite Fire Detections

• “…The cause of the mostly moderate air quality in the center on the country are the ongoing controlled agricultural fires that are burning in Eastern Missouri and Arkansas. These fires are creating small plumes of mostly light density smoke that are covering the region and slowly traveling Southwest (HMS image, top right). The poor air quality in Southern California is likely due to remnant, light density, smoke from wildfires in the area, as well as possible foreign smoke coming over from Asia, however, this smoke is moving out into the Pacific Ocean. Elevated AOD levels, likely due to the smoke, can be seen off the coast of Southern California, as well as near the agricultural burns in the center of the nation ” – Smog Blog

• http://alg.umbc.edu/usaq/archives/2015_09.html

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http://alg.umbc.edu/usaq/archives/2015_04.html

September 23, 2015

• Elevated PM2.5readings at Karnack

• Moderate northeasterly winds

• Back trajectories extend toward region with fires

• Possible that fires upwind contributed to background ozone

September 23, 2015

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Tyler

C82

Location 8hr-O3

(ppb)

1hr-O3

(max-ppb/time)

Longview 60 66/noon

Tyler 73 79/noon

Karnack 53 56/2pm

September 23, 2015

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HYSPLIT: 2500m

48hr BACKTRAJECTORY

HYSPLIT 1000m

48hr BACKTRAJECTORY

HYSPLIT 500m

48hr BACKTRAJECTORY





Weather Conditions and High Ozone

• Overall, 2015 weather more conducive than 2014 weather, but 2015 was neither very conducive nor very inhibiting toward ozone formation

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Documents

Review of Northeast Texas 2015 Ozone Season · Effect of Excluding January 28, 2015 •If January 28, 2015 were determined to be an exceptional event, day would be dropped from design