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Review of NEEDS & Development of NEEDS 2. Presented by Senator Abdallah Wali Hon. Minister/Deputy Chairman National Planning Commission. Outline. What NEEDS set s out to Achieve We Achieved our set Targets Overview of Economic REFORMS Sectoral Performance - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Review of NEEDS & Development of
NEEDS 2
Presented by
Senator Abdallah Wali Hon. Minister/Deputy Chairman
National Planning Commission
Outline
What NEEDS sets out to Achieve We Achieved our set Targets Overview of Economic REFORMS
Sectoral Performance
Current Development Challenges
Development of NEEDS 2 Medium Term Plan[2008-2011]
NEEDS sets out to ACHIEVE
Employment Generation
Poverty Reduction
Wealth Creation, and;
Value Orientation.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics Note: * Estimates
Economic Performance under NEEDS generally surpassed expectations:
GDP, Oil & Non-oil sector growth as well as inflation did better than set targets
WE ACHIEVED OUR SET TARGETS NEEDS PERFORMANCE ……Targets & Actuals 2003-2007
INDICATOR [%] 2004 2005 2006 2007*
Target Actual Target Actual Target Actual Target Actual
GDP Growth Rate 5.00 6.58 6.00 6.51 6.00 5.67 7.0 7.87*
Oil Sector Growth 0.0 3.3 0.0 0.5 0.0 -4.5 0.0 2.61
Non-oil Sector Growth 7.3 7.72 8.5 8.52 8.3 8.86 9.5 9.33
Poverty Incidence 5.0 5.4 5.0 - 5.0 - 5.0 -
Inflation 10.0 15.0 9.5 11.6 9.5 8.5 9.0
GDP Growth [NEEDS Targets & Actuals]
6
665
7.876.515.676.58
0123456789
2004 2005 2006 2007*
Year
Per
cen
t
Target Actual
Oil Sector Growth Rate [NEEDS] Target Vs Actual
0.53.3
23.9
-4.5
2.61
-10-505
1015202530
Years
%
Target
Actual
3.3 5.11
7.3 7.72
8.5 8.52 8.3 8.869.5 9.33
0123456789
10
%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007*
Year
Non-oil Sector Growth Rate [NEEDS] Target Vs Actuals
Target
Actual
Macroeconomic Performance
Stable exchange rate -convergence of parallel and DAS exchange rates achieved
External reserves grew by about 446% from US$7.68 billion in 2004 to US$42 billion at the end of 2006 [NEEDS Target: 26% 2004 - 2007]
Phenomenal growth in net inflow of Foreign Direct investment and portfolio investment
Reduction in the external debt;
Sectoral Performance & NEEDS
SECTORAL CONTRIBUTION TO GDP (%) 2004 2005 2006 2007
Agriculture 40.98 41.19 41.77 41.63 Petroleum [Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas] 25.72 24.26 21.93 20.82 Solid Mineral 0.26 0.27 0.28 0.28 Telecommunication & Post 1.20 1.45 1.82 2,23 Manufacturing 3.68 3.79 3.79 4.01 SECTORAL GROWTH RATE Agriculture 6.50 7.06 7.17 7.51 Petroleum [Crude petroleum & Natural Gas] 3.30 0.50 -4.5 2.61 Solid Mineral 10.85 9.53 9.57 9.61 Telecommunication & Post 28.97 28.81 31.98 32.09 Manufacturing 10.00 9.61 9.71 9.77 Source: National Bureau of Statistics
Note: 2006 & 2007 Provisional Figures
Efforts at moving the economy away from reliance on oil
yielding fruit
Sectoral performance & NEEDS
Targeted incentives to the agricultural sector propelling growth
The manufacturing sector has similarly experienced phenomenal growth also exceeding set targets
Growth has averaged about 10% over the period exceeding the targeted 7% annual growth for the period
Significant growth despite insignificant growth in capacity utilization
Commerce 44 initiative better positioning non-oil export growth
Growth achieving NEEDS Goals ……………………EMPLOYMENT
GENERATION
Greater employment opportunities Quick employment generation survey [Sectoral Growth]
2004[%]
2005[%]
Agriculture 23.90 13.01Communication 3.18 43.75Education 7.32 17.79Solid Minerals 5.50 6.44Source: National Bureau of Statistics
Note: Survey of 500 companies employing 10 persons and above
Manufacturing beginning to create more
job opportunities given reforms and
incentives
Targeted incentives boosting manufacturing export, creating more job opportunities
Employment generation…cont’d
Employment generation…cont’d
Significant increase in the number of educational and Health institutions have similarly created more jobs
Power sector also expected to create more jobs on consolidation of reform of the sector and commissioning of the NIPP in 2007
2006 Core Welfare indicator survey indicates that the living standards have improved
Access to water 84.4% [2006] Access to Electricity 54.1%
Progress made in reducing poverty incidencePoverty incidence level 65.6% -1996
-Estimated population 102.3million Poverty incidence level 54.4% -2004
-Estimated population 126.3million
Present population figure: 140million
Source: National Population Commission -2006 census figure
NEEDS Target: Access to drinking water 70% of population
Poverty Reduction & Wealth Creation
Economic Growth and Multidimensionalapproach to poverty alleviation andwealth creation Surge in capital market activities -tackling poverty,
creating wealth
Positive developments in the Health sector releases productive energy into the economy
Prevalence rate of malaria steadily declined
HIV/AIDS prevalence has also declined
Poverty Reduction & Wealth Creation….cont’d
Poverty Reduction & Wealth Creation….cont’d
EDUCATIONCore Welfare Indicator Survey 2006
Adult Literacy Rate 64.2%
Youth Literacy Rate 76.5%
Access to primary school 74.6%
Access to Secondary School 46.3%
Focused Federal Government polices have also encouraged school
enrollment & completion rate
Target of increasing Adult literacy rate from 57% to 65% was achieved
Increased access to education reducing poverty, creating wealth
Establishment of virtual poverty fund to support the attainment of the
MDG’s target of reducing poverty by 50% by 2015
Poverty Reduction & Wealth Creation….cont’d
Privatization & Divestment Policy
110 transactions concluded between 1999-2006
Over $4 billion was realized from sale of enterprises
between 2005 and 2006
21 port concessions completed
Paved way for reduction in financial burden of government
Poverty Reduction & Wealth Creation….cont’d
Introduced to address the gap occasioned by unfunded pension schemes in the public sector
Financial burden of government has been reduced since the adoption in 2004
Fund now nearing N100billion
PENSION REFORM
Curbing Corruption and Graft Appreciation that corruption and Graft will be punished being
deeply instilled
Value Orientation
264
365 367
27
451
110
399
1140
100
200
300
400
500
No. of Cases
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Year
Corruption & Graft Cases Handled by EFCC & ICPC
EFCC
ICPC
Activities of NAFDAC & Standards Organization of Nigeria awakening Producer/Dealer responsibility to consumers
Value Orientation…cont’d
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Number
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
YEAR
NAFDAC -Food & Drug Control 1999-2006*
Number License applicationsreceived
Imported fake /substandarddrugs impounded
New licenses/NAFDACnumbers granted
Value Orientation…cont’d
PUBLIC SERVICE REFORMS
Reforms extended to virtually all aspects of the Public Service, including Military and Police
Initial 9 pilot MDAs number of Departments was reduced by 35%
8000 ghost workers discovered & removed
Rightsizing of the civil service
Value Orientation…cont’d
Public Service reforms….SERVICOM
Institutionalizing the culture of service delivery in a timely,
effective and transparent manner in the public sector
Improvement in performance of some public organizations
CAC, NIPOST, FCT
Establishment of ministerial servicom units
Current Development Challenges
Reducing poverty in the context of growing population
Growth without a commensurate increase in employment
Large and expanding ‘survivalist’ informal sector
The Niger-Delta challenge
Bridging –Human & Physical infrastructure gaps
Deepening reforms at the sub-national levels
Linking S&T and research innovation to real sector performance
Development of NEEDS 2Pr o g r e s s So F a r
Development of NEEDS 2 at advanced stage
BROAD Based consultation on going
Drafting of NEEDS 2 has commenced
Experts commissioned to prepare position papers on NEEDS 2
Interministerial NEEDS 2 secretariat
Sub-zero draft on NEEDS 2
Call for memoranda
Joint Planning Board [JPB] meeting
Retreat for Core Drafting Team
Zonal Consultations
Development of NEEDS 2Pr o g r e s s So F a r…cont’d
WORK PLAN FOR THE PRODUCTION OF NEEDS-2 S/N DATE ACTIVITIES OUTPUT 1. 19/03/07
to 29/03/07
Synthesis of stakeholders inputs for NEEDS-2 development as advertised in the media
Reference materials that would enable further improvement on NEEDS-2 sub-zero draft
2. 30/03/07 to 20/04/07
Core Drafting Team and inter-ministerial NEEDS Secretariat to fine-tune the NEEDS-2 sub-zero draft
Zero draft NEEDS-2
3. 24/04/07 to 26/04/07
Validation of the NEEDS-2 zero draft by relevant Ministries and Governor of CBN. Consultation with the NDDC & Relevant commissioners of the Niger Delta Region
Zero draft NEEDS-2
4.
27/04/07 to 29/04/07
Final Retreat for Core drafting team to incorporate comments and fine tune the zero draft NEEDS-2 document
Improved zero draft NEEDS-2
5. 30/04/07 to 02/05/07
Consideration of zero draft NEEDS-2 document by The President, Economic Management Team and The Federal Executive Council [FEC]
Draft NEEDS-2
6. 03/05/07
Public consultation on NEEDS-2 in Lagos
Draft NEEDS-2
7. 04/05/07 Public Consultation on NEEDS-2 in Owerri
- Ditto -
8. 05/05/07 Public Consultation on NEEDS-2 in Asaba
- Ditto -
9. 07/05/07 Public Consultation on NEEDS-2 in Kaduna
- Ditto -
10. 08/05/07 Public Consultation on NEEDS-2 in Bauchi
- Ditto -
11. 10/05/07 Public Consultation on NEEDS-2 in Makurdi
- Ditto -
12. 11/05/07 to 17/05/07
Synthesizing of document and production of final draft NEEDS-2
- Ditto -
13. 18/05/07 Presentation of final draft NEEDS-2 to The President
- Ditto -
14. 19/05/07 to 28/05/07
The President hands over final Draft NEEDS 2 document to the incoming administration
-Ditto-
THE STRATEGIC FRAMEWORK
To reduce poverty 30% 2011
Wealth creation (10% GDP growth rate)
Employment Generation 10million jobs
Production
Human infrastructure
Physical infrastructure
Peace andSecurity
Service Delivery and macro economic stability
Regional Dev
Cross-cutting issues: Re-orientation of attitudes, Gender, HIV/AIDS, Environment, Science & Tech, Nat. Emerg preparedness
NEEDS 2…..Where we are going M e d i u m T e r m O u t l o o k [2008-2011]
GDP Growth Rate [2003- 2011, Actual growth & Projections]
11.711.510.5
9.3
6.58
6.237.8
5.67
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Year
Pe
rce
nt
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
NEEDS 2….. …..Where we are going….cont’d Assumptions: Key Macro Economic Projections
Continuation of economic reforms
Macroeconomic stability
Favourable political environment and peaceful transition
Major improvement in infrastructure
Weather remains clement
Favourable international oil market conditions
Single digit inflation rate
Aggregate investment to grow by 9-10% on annual basis
SECTOR 2008 2009 2010 2011
Agriculture 10.63 10.91 11.09 11.18
Solid Minerals 7.89 8.85 9.70 9.99
Manufacturing 12.66 13.25 13.86 14.31
Building & Construction 10.20 10.92 11.54 11.63
Transport 6.11 6.92 7.67 8.03
Communication 10.97 11.29 11.72 12.09
Government Services 9.91 10.07 10.11 10.12
Distribution 12.21 12.88 13.53 14.05
Others 14.38 17.53 20.46 19.63
Total 9.30 10.50 11.50 11.70
Source: National Bureau of Statistics/NPC
Expected GDP growth and Sectoral performance
REAL OUTPUT PROJECTION [2008 – 2011]
NEEDS 2….. …..Where we are going….cont’d
NEEDS 2….. …..Where we are going….cont’d Key Sectoral Targets & Strategies - Agriculture
Targets
Agriculture to grow at an average of 11%
Zero Percent in food imports by 2011
Generate at least $3billion in agricultural exports by 2011
NEEDS 2….. …..Where we are going….cont’d Key Sectoral Targets & Strategies - Agriculture
Strategies
Progressive elimination of food imports & Strive towards food security/surplus
Sustaining of Presidential initiatives on agriculture
Fast Tracking credit at rural level and NACRDB Capitalization
Building of partnerships between financial institutions and farmers to facilitate channeling of credit
NEEDS 2….. …..Where we are going….cont’d Key Sectoral Targets & Strategies - Manufacturing
Targets
Increase growth rate in manufacturing from 9% to 10% by 2011
Capacity utilization in manufacturing to rise from 55% to 80% by 2011
NEEDS 2….. …..Where we are going….cont’d Key Sectoral Targets & Strategies - Manufacturing
Strategies
Provide targeted incentives to deepen linkages between production units and research institutes/universities
Government procurement policy to support local goods
Redress the electricity problem
Closer collaboration between Manufactures and banks to ensure effective access to SMIES funds by manufactures
NEEDS 2….. …..Where we are going….cont’d Key Sectoral Targets & Strategies - Infrastructure
[Energy]
Targets
Raise Electricity generation to over 17000MW by 2011
Raise electricity Per capita consumption from about 150KWh to over 500KWh
A minimum investment Stream of $12.729 billion to meet the power projection
NEEDS 2….. …..Where we are going….cont’d Key Sectoral Targets & Strategies - Energy
Strategies
Development of alternative form of energy
Adoption of private public partnership approach and the frontier shift strategy
Introduction of appropriate electricity pricing framework
NEEDS 2….. …..Where we are going….cont’d Key Sectoral Targets & Strategies - Information and Communication Technology [ICT]
Targets
Increasing teledensity to 0.5% of National Population
Broad band service for at least 75% of residents of all state capitals
25 million and 90 million fixed and GSM Telephone lines
NEEDS 2….. …..Where we are going….cont’d Key Sectoral Targets & Strategies -ICT
Strategies Enforcement of service obligations and contractual grades of
service by telecom operators
Restructuring of curricular of secondary and tertiary education
Encourage local production of ICT component and sub-system through fiscal incentives to manufacturers.
NEEDS 2….. …..Where we are going….cont’d Key Sectoral Targets & Strategies - Oil & Gas
Targets
Increase crude oil reserves to 40 billion barrels and production capacity to 4.5 million barrels per day
Gas reserves and termination of gas flaring by 2008
70% Local content component by 2011
NEEDS 2….. …..Where we are going….cont’d Key Sectoral Targets & Strategies - Oil & Gas
STRATEGIES
Sustain implementation of competitive and transparent bidding/allocation of oil blocks and continuation of the EITI
Strengthen production sharing contract (PSC) and explore alternative funding schemes
Implementation of oil and gas policy
Fast track long-term financing of local content and
cost effective pricing of gas for local consumption
NEEDS 2….. …..Where we are going….cont’d Targets –Education
Target• Increase enrolment by 6% annually at the basic education level
• Attainment of teacher/pupil ratio of 1:35 in primary school
• 100% transition from primary to junior secondary school
• Raise access to quality tertiary education from 1.3m to 2.5m students
• ICT training for 50 percent of educators nationally
• Increase enrolment of girls by 50% in the 6 States
NEEDS 2….. …..Where we are going….cont’d Strategy –Education
Sustain implementation of the Universal Basic Education programme
Implementation of the Child Right Act to facilitate universal access to education
Review curricular and courses taught at universities
Science and Technology, especially ICT to be promoted and mainstreamed into the educational system
Value orientation to be emphasized at all levels of education
NEEDS 2….. …..Where we are going….cont’d Targets –Health
Reduce infant mortality rate currently at 113/1000 live births
Lower under five mortality rate currently at 201/1000 live births
Decrease mortality rate currently at 1000/100,000 live births
NEEDS 2….. …..Where we are going….cont’d Strategies –Health
Strengthening the Public Health Centers, including routine immunization
Sustain the promotion of community consumer enlightenment
Fostering effective collaboration and partnership of all health stakeholders
Implementation of the National Policy on Health research
NEEDS 2….. …..Where we are going….cont’d Targets –Employment
Target
Create 10 million new jobs by 2011
Average annual growth of 2.5million jobs to be created yearly
Jobs to be created in both the formal and informal sectors of the economy
The reform programme is now Irreversible
The benefits transcends the life of this
administration
Sustenance of the reforms via NEEDS 2
promises a brighter future for the nation
Thank You for your Attention