Rev Oil Case Study

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REVOIL S.A.CASE STUDY ANALYSIS

07 FEBRUARY 2012


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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

We analyze the fuel industry and focus on Elinoil Hellenic Petroleum Company S.A., one of

the largest fuel and oil retail distributors based in Greece. We focus on financial years 2008

and 2009 and perform RATIO analysis, NOPAT, EVA, FCF along with others. Using, afore

analyzed data, we attempt to provide a forecast and propose ways to improve certainaspects of Elinoils performance. Our report concludes with a presentation of qualitative

factors that management should take into account to improve financial performance.


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CONTENTSTable of Contents

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ......................................................................................................................2CONTENTS ..........................................................................................................................................3INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................................................4

RATIOS ................................................................................................................................................8Analysis ................................................................................................................................................9FORECASTING .................................................................................................................................13Quantitative Analysis ..........................................................................................................................14Qualitative Analysis ............................................................................................................................14REFERENCES ...................................................................................................................................16BIBLIOGRAPHY .................................................................................................................................17

List of Figures

Figure 1 Subsidiaries.........................................................................................................................8

Figure 2 - Activities...............................................................................................................................8

List of Tables

Table 1 Ratios Used for Analysis.......................................................................................................9Table 2 Current Ratios......................................................................................................................9Table 3 Quick Ratios.........................................................................................................................9Table 4 Receivables Turnover.........................................................................................................10Table 5 - Average Days Sales............................................................................................................10Table 6 - Gross Profit Margin .............................................................................................................10Table 7 - Net Profit Margin.................................................................................................................10

Table 8 - Asset Turnover....................................................................................................................10Table 9 - Returns on Assets...............................................................................................................11Table 10 - Returns on Equity..............................................................................................................11Table 11 - Earnings per Share............................................................................................................11Table 12 - Debts to Assets ................................................................................................................11Table 13 - Debts to Equity .................................................................................................................11Table 14 - Interest Coverage .............................................................................................................12Table 15 - Prices over Earnings ........................................................................................................12Table 16 Du Pont Analysis..............................................................................................................12Table 17 Strengths and Weaknesses..............................................................................................12Table 18 Improvement Areas..........................................................................................................13Table 19 Other indices for 2009......................................................................................................13Table 20 Income Statement.............................................................................................................13Table 21 Total Assets......................................................................................................................13Table 22 Total Claims......................................................................................................................14Table 23 Other indices for 2010......................................................................................................14


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INTRODUCTION

HISTORY

REVOIL was founded in 1982, under the company name Revithis Sofoklis S.A., and its main area of

activity was the retailing of petroleum products. The companys key asset of strategic importance as itentered this sector was its liquid fuel storage facility on the island of Chios.

The year1995 was a milestone in the companys development; it was in this year that it was

purchased by its current shareholders.

Since May 1995 the company has built up a broad network of 532 service stations, due to its

aggressive policy of expanding the service stations network, spread all over the Greek region, all

under the REVOIL trademark. We should point out that the company holds trading licenses in the 1stand 6th category, allowing it to sell petroleum products all across Greece, as well as a category 5

permit allowing the sale of marine and aviation fuels.

The company also collaborates with about 207customers designated as Independent Service

Stations, and with independent suppliers of heating oil.

Alongside its presence in the liquid fuel sector, the company markets a wide range of supplementary

products under the REVOLUTION trademark (lubricants for automotive and diesel engines, hydraulic

systems and gears).

In the summer of2001 the company received ISO 14001 (environmental management certification

from the Greek Standards Agency)for the Chios facilities.

In May 2002 an expansion plan was initiated for the Nea Karvali (Kavala) facility, with the

construction of 7 storage tanks with a capacity of 27,000 cubic metres. This expansion together with

the facilities of Chios gave Revoil a great competitive advantage, given that the Nea Karvali plant at

Kavala is the largest petroleum product storage facility anywhere in Greece outside Attica and

Thessaloniki.

In recent years the company has been gradually reorganizing its management structure, giving

special emphasis on its human capital through ongoing training and the introduction of CRM and ERP

technologies.


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THE COMPANY

REVOIL is a 100% Greek-owned company that operates in the Greek petroleum market, enjoying amarket share of 8.44% and still expanding (YP.AN. 2011). The company has enjoyed particularsuccess over the last years thanks to the excellent relations with all the business associates andpartners in its network. REVOILs business is the trading of fuels and lubricants to its network of 532affiliate service stations. The company's line of business is storage, transport and trade of petroleum-based products in Greece and the Balkans. The main products are:

LRP Petrol 95 RON Unleaded Petrol 100 RON Unleaded Petrol Diesel Fuel (with 7% max biodiesel) Heating Fuel Maritime Fuel Lubricants

In recognition of the consumers need for guaranteed quality fuels at competitive prices, the company

has introduced TOTAL QUALITY CONTROLS in collaboration with National Technical University of

Athens at all service stations and facilities displaying the REVOIL trademark in order to verify and

certify the quality of the fuels it distributes . The new controls came into effect on 1st February 2008.

MISSION

REVOILs mission is to offer the best possible to everyone who is directly or indirectly affected by its

operation (shareholders) based on three pillars; People, Society and the Environment.

PEOPLE

Eliminating all discrimination in the workplace in regards to gender, nationality, religion,cultural characteristics and social profile.

Behavior and attitude towards people governed by respect, civility, honesty, integrity andfairness.

Commitment to a fair, objective and transparent professional development method for allemployees.

SOCIETY

Attitude and actions against any illegal act such as bribery, fraud, embezzlement or moneylaundering.

Commitment towards social issues with a view to supporting the society in which I operate.

ENVIRONMENT

Whenever possible, offsetting CO2 emissions through reduction thereof and implementationof relevant actions. Actions and activities based on assuring environmental quality in combination with business

criteria.


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VISION

REVOILs vision is to develop into one of the most important petroleum product companies in Greece

and the Balkans, through various activities in the petroleum sector, gaining the confidence of Greek

consumers and beyond through its operations as well as its professionalism and competitiveness. Itis a company that contributes to the Greek economy, a company worth working for, a creative

company which always looks to the future.

Its objective is to offer customers products of the highest quality, friendly and fast service at

competitive prices.

INDUSTRY ANALYSISThe domestic oil product market holds the leading position in the Greek energy balance (51.5%,

ICAP May 2010). The major deterministic factors for the consumption of petrol fuels are the sectors of

transport (50%), industry (16%), electricity production (12%) and domestic sector (15.2%) as

presented in Figure X.

5%2%

12%

16%

0%

38%

8%

4%15%

Domestic consumption of fuels in Greece per sector(Eurostat 2007)

Agricultural sector Public & Commercial Sector Electricity Production Industry Railway transportations

Road transportations Airway transportations Shipping transportation Domestic sector

Figure X.

2008 was a crucial year for the retail sector of the industry because all the companies suffered

significant losses. In 2009, we see a significant recap in the companies profitability and the EBITDA

to rise by 125%. On the contrary, the refinery companies (Motor Oil, ELPE) demonstrated a

significant downsize of the profitability in 2008.

In 2009, we see a significant decline of the total petroleum market by 5.8%. In more detail, gasoline

market together with automotive and heating diesel market were stable. There was a significant

downsize of the internal consumption of crude oil (-20%), as well as the demand for the big industrial

units (-22%). Moreover, there was a major decline in the consumption of international transportation


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fuels (Jet A1 -11.5%, maritime fuel -10%). Finally, natural gas showed a tremendous decline of 16%

as an immediate result of the reduction in electricity generation.

Figure X: The Five Forces Competition Framework (Porter)

KEY SUCCESS FACTORS

INTERNAL ANALYSIS

Introduction

Resources

Capabilities

COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE

Introduction

The financials

Formation of Competitive Advantage

Value Chain

STRATEGY RECOMMENDATION


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The domestic oil product market signals its declining path. Cash flows have decreased in allcompanies and especially for the weaker players with a market share of less than 2%. Examples of

such companies are Sunoil and Elpetrol that announced the termination of their operations. At the

moment we have eight (8) big players that have 80% of the market, each one having at least 5.5%

market share. Therefore the market is an oligopoly, where size matters. The credit policy from the

supply side (ELPE and Motoroil), and from the Banks is going to worsen the current status.

Additionally, the credit policy for the customers will tighten and as an example, ELPE has announced

a credit policy of no more than twenty (20) days. Furthermore, multinational giants like BP and Shell

consider the possibility of cashing out. The consumption of motor fuels has dropped by 2% and the

consumption of heating oil has dropped more than 12%. The companies are considering 2009 as a

very crucial year for their survival and the potential of mergers is very likely to occur.

The company examining in our case is Elin, which currently has a market share of 6%. Elinoil

Hellenic Petroleum (elin) was incorporated in 1954 and has since grown into one of the major energy

companies in Greece, covering a significant portion of the countrys industrial needs in fuels and

lubricants (elin 2011). In 2000, the company founded its subsidiary, elin Technical, expanding into

construction work and technical studies. In 2004, elin was listed in the Athens Stock Exchange and in

2005 it further diversified its range of activities into shipping, retail petrol stations, and biofuels

production - with subsidiaries elin Shipping Co., elin Stations, and elin Biofuels.

Elin also produces and trades lubricants for petrol and diesel motors, agricultural machines, turbines,

air compressors, heat transfer and industrial vehicles, as well as metal cutting and processing

equipment. In the maritime sector, it provides marine lubricants and fuel for vessels. In addition to

liquid fuel, the company produces and trades solid fuels.

Figure 1 Subsidiaries

Figure 2 - Activities

RATIOS

Ratio analysis is used to analyze the success, failure and progress of the business during a fiscalyear. Ratio analysis allows us to analyze and compare the above parameters with the averageperformance of companies that conduct business on the industry. For a valid comparison we need tocompare ratios for at least two successive years.


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The ratios selected for analysis are provided on the following table:Domain Ratios Reasoning

Liquidity Current Ratio The Liquidity ratios measure how expeditiously acompany can convert its assets into cash. Theymeasure the risk that the company has for notmeeting its payments.

Quick Ratio

Efficiency Receivables Turnover Ratio The Efficiency ratios measure the ability of thecompany to manage efficiently its assets.Average Days Sales Ratio

Profitability Gross Profit Margin Ratio The Profitability ratios measure the companys

potential for generating profit.Net Profit Margin RatioAsset Turnover RatioReturn on Assets RatioReturn on Equity RatioEarnings per Share Ratio

Long Term Solvency Debt to Assets Ratio These ratios reveal the companys susceptibilityto risk. They are the indicators if a company isable to pay its loans.

Debt to Equity RatioInterest Coverage Ratio

Market Test Price over Earnings Market Test ratios reflect to some extent thegrowth potential of a company and the market`sevaluation of the firm`s earnings.

Table 1 Ratios Used for Analysis

Analysis

The current ratios for two consecutive fiscal years are presented on the following table:Years Elin Market Average

2008 1.34 1.142009 1.67 1.05

Table 2 Current Ratios

We observe that Elinoil has a very healthy current ratio, since it is over one (1). Moreover, Elins

performance is exceptional and above markets average. According to the numbers, the company

can cover its current liabilities and appears to be managed prudently. The company has a margin to

increase its current liabilities, decrease its assets, change current assets to less liquid assets and

provide dividends to its shareholders.

The quick ratios for two consecutive fiscal years are presented on the following table:Years Elin Market Average

2008 1.17 0.962009 1.42 0.84

Table 3 Quick Ratios

Complementary to the current ratio, Elinoil has a very healthy quick ratio, since it is over one (1).

The ratio increased in 2009, which demonstrates that the company is able to meet its obligations and

at the same time keep intact its assets. Contrary, the market average depicts that the competitors

have to convert their assets into cash in order to meet their obligations. Therefore Elinoil is

developing more than market average, although its current liabilities remain close to the market

average. Consequently the assets of the company are intensively used.

The receivables turnover ratios for two consecutive fiscal years are presented on the following table:Years Elin Market Average


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2008 31 days 36 days2009 34 days 42 days

Table 4 Receivables Turnover

Currently, Elinoil is able to collect its receivables on average in less time than the market. This shows

that the risk of bad debts is less than the market average. Although the company is in expansion

mode, the expansion is based on a healthy client base. The increase of the numbers between 2008

and 2009 is analogous to the increase on the market.

The average days sales ratios for two consecutive fiscal years are presented on the following table:Years Elin Market Average

2008 11,77 10,132009 10,73 8,7

Table 5 -Average Days Sales

From 2008 to 2009 we observe a decrease in average sales per day both in Elinoil and Marketaverage. The total consumption rate has decreased and the whole market is affected. Elinoil

demonstrates a better resistance in the decrease as it is able to keep the average days sales abovemarket average.

The gross profit margin ratios for two consecutive fiscal years are presented on the following table:Years Elin Market Average

2008 6.57% 6.11%2009 7.73% 6.32%

Table 6 - Gross Profit Margin

Gross Profit Margin increased between 2008 and 2009 for Elinoil more than the market. This index isvery important because it provides a way of evaluating the efficiency of our company. It shows ourpricing policy and its success. In Elin case, it is in a better position than the market average andmanaged to increase it since 2008. This index also gives an advantage to manage without anyparticular difficulty a possible raise in a cost of goods sold. This might be a result of a goodpurchasing strategy or high selling prices or both.

The net profit margin ratios for two consecutive fiscal years are presented on the following table:Years Elin Market Average

2008 0.18% 0,79%2009 0.71% 0,94%

Table 7 - Net Profit Margin

This index shows that our company has managed to increase its profitability from its operationsactivities almost four (4) times in a year. At the same time, the companys numbers lie below marketaverage. If we correlate the numbers with the Gross Profit Margin, then, COGS and other expensesis higher than the competitors, but we manage to have a good pricing policy.

The asset turnover ratios for two consecutive fiscal years are presented on the following table:Years Elin Market Average

2008 5.35 5.312009 4.71 4.19

Table 8 -Asset Turnover

This index shows that Elin operates in a capital intensive market. Elins assets are used effectivelyand intensively in order to achieve the sales level. We observed a decrease of the index in the marketalthough we operate above the market average because there is a drop in the total consumption.Consequently we deduce that Elin is more resilient than the competition.


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The returns on assets ratios for two consecutive fiscal years are presented on the following table:Years Elin Market Average

2008 0.95% -0.12%2009 3.36% 2.09%

Table 9 - Returns on Assets

The index presents the ability of the company to survive financially and to attract capitals and provide

yields. Although in 2008 the index was low, when at the same time the market suffered losses. In2009, when the market recovered we managed to attract more capital than the market average. Thisdisplays that the company is using its assets effectively and can generate yields better than themarket.

The returns on equity ratios for two consecutive fiscal yearsare presented on the following table:Years Elin Market Average

2008 2.67% N/A2009 13.45% N/A

Table 10 - Returns on Equity

This index provides the efficiency of the owners capital used. It is the basic index that themanagement of the company is showing to demonstrate performance. Elin, is a great investmentopportunity compared with other investments.

The earnings per share ratios for two consecutive fiscal years are presented on the following table:Years Elin Market Average

2008 0.07 N/A2009 0.20 N/A

Table 11 - Earnings per Share

The earnings per share of Elinoir have been significantly increased between 2008 and 2009. This is

justified for the increase on the returns on assets ratiobecause in order to attract capital we givedividends.

The debts to assets ratios for two consecutive fiscal yearsare presented on the following table:Years Elin Market Average

2008 1.34 1.132009 1.55 1.04

Table 12 - Debts to Assets

This index shows the level of liquidity and how safe is our position to respond to the payment of daily

obligations. Our company demonstrates better liquidity than the competition, and also animprovement between 2008 and 2009. Due to the companys ability to secure payments, as justifiedby receivables turnover ratio, we may lowerthe debts to asset ratio by increasing our short termdebts in order to generate more assets and achieve higher level of sales.

The debts to equity ratios for two consecutive fiscal years are presented on the following table:Years Elin Market Average

2008 2.04 N/A2009 1.50 N/A

Table 13 - Debts to Equity

Within a year, we observe a decrease in the effect of the external financing on Elins profitability owncapital. We have invested more of our money and we did not manage to increase at the same levelour assets.

The interest coverage ratios for two consecutive fiscal years are presented on the following table:


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Years Elin Market Average

2008 1.20 3.062009 3.61 3.75

Table 14 - Interest Coverage

This index shows the net profits of our company and the interest payments that is burden for the useof external financing. It shows the ability of our company to pay the interest through the profit. From2008 to 2009 we show a significant increase of our company in that sector and we are above the

average in our market.

Theprices over earnings ratios for two consecutive fiscal years are presented on the following table:Years Elin Market Average

2008 0.07 N/A2009 0.20 N/A

Table 15 - Prices over Earnings

The ratio reveals how much investors are keen to pay for reported profits per share. From 2008 to2009 investors are willing to pay more money because the company demonstrated a growthprospect.

The DuPont Analysis for is given below:Year Du Pont

AnalysisProfit Margin Total Assets

TurnoverEquity Multiplier

2008 3.89% 0.18% 5.34% 4.05%2009 14.93% 0.71% 4.70% 4.48%PercentageChange

283.8% 294% -11.9% 10.6%

Table 16 Du Pont Analysis

The increase in Dupont ROE is mainly justified by the Profit Margin increase. This was amanagement decision to increase the profit margin and sacrifice some of the level of sales. The

equity multiplier shows an increase in the financial leverage of the company that has a positive effecton ROE. In our case this is healthy because at the same time we have an increase in the profitmargin.

According to the above, the strengths and weaknesses of the Elin are given on the following table:Strengths Weaknesses

1. Profit Margin2. Short Collection Period of AR3. Generate Yields in order to attract capital4. Effective and intensive use of assets

1. Expensive External Financing2. Low Conversion Ratio of own capital to

assets

Table 17 Strengths and Weaknesses

The areas of improvement for the company are given on the following table:Areas to Improve Side Effect Corrective Action

Expensive External Financing.This is reasoned due to thefollowing ratio:

interest coverage

Investments of Elin will not beused for development but forfinancing the interest of theloans.

Negotiate better terms in anyfuture loans.


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Areas to Improve Side Effect Corrective Action

Low Conversion Ratio of owncapital to assetsThis is reasoned due to thefollowing ratio:

debts to equity

We have invested more of ourmoney and we did not manageto increase at the same levelour assets. This is notsustainable for long termperiods.

Minimize the cost of operations.Introduce new technology. Lowercost of labor.Restructure distribution channels.

Table 18 Improvement Areas

Elin

Index Formula 2009

NOPAT EBIT x (1 Tax Rate) 7,039 x (1 0.25) = 5,279.25EVA NOPAT (After Tax Cost of Capital) 5,279.25 (0.1 x 94,146) = -4,135.35

FCF NOPAT (Net Capital Investment) 5,279.25 (94,146 - 88,995) = 128.25MVA Market Value of Equity Equity Capital Supplied 18,800,000 x 2.04 - 18,800,000x 1,80 =4,512

Table 19 Other indices for 2009

FORECASTING

Because of the shrinkage of the market and reduction in total consumption, we project that in 2010and due to alternative sources of heating and moving, the sales will drop by 11% for 2010.

So the level of new sales will be in 2010:

659,498 x 0.89 = 586,944.32

Income Statement

2010 2009 % of sales

Net Sales 586.9443 659.488COGS -541.5783 -608.514 92%Gross Profit 45.36606 50.974SGA 42.67898 47.954 7%Profit before

Taxes 2.687079 3.020Taxes 0.644899 0.755Profit after Taxes 2.04218 2.265

Table 20 Income Statement

Total Assets

2010 2009 % of sales

Cash 8.49238 9.542 1%AccountsReceivables 54.51517 61.253 9%

Inventories 15.21722 17.098 3%Total CurrentAssets 78.22477 87.893Net Fixed Assets 41.21234 46.306 7%Total Assets 119.43711 134.199

Table 21 Total Assets


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Total Claims

2010 2009 % of sales

AccoutnsPayables /Accruals 29.121 8%

Notes Payables 26.302Total Current

Liabilities 49.32647 55.423Long Term Debt 36.256 36.256

Common Stock 11.914 11.914RetainedEarnings 11.87171 13.339 2%

Total Claims 109.3682 116.932Table 22 Total Claims

Additional Funds Needed (AFN): Forecasted Total Assets Forecasted Total Claims

134,199 - 116,932 = 17,267

Ways to raise funds:1. Issue New Common Stock2. External Financing

We prefer the first option as we need to cut off loans as provide after ratio analysis.

Quantitative AnalysisElin

Index Formula 2010

NOPAT EBIT x (1 Tax Rate) 2,687.079 - (1 - 0.24) = 2,042EVA NOPAT (After Tax Cost of Capital) 2,042 - (0.1 x 70,110) = -4,969 FCF NOPAT (Net Capital Investment) 2,042 - (70,110 94,146) = 26.078MVA Market Value of Equity Equity Capital Supplied Cannot be Projected

Table 23 Other indices for 2010

Comments:

NOPAT was decreased due to the fact of lower sales, although the new tax rate is less by 1%. The operating expenses represent a big percentage of our sales. Consequently, drop of sales

have significant impact on EVA. Negative EVA depicts that Elin is not able to return earningsto shareholder at comparable risk.

Free Cash Flows of the company have decreased but still remain positive. This is a sign oflower sales performance and it will impact directly the shareholders. This years decrease inFCF will affect Elins ability to proceed in acquisitions, pay dividends and reduce the debt.

Qualitative AnalysisDue to the restructuring of the market as the smaller companies are disappearing from the scene,lower cost labor force can be introduced in Elin in order to lower operating cost.


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Another side-effect of the restructuring is that Elin has the opportunity to compete for a larger marketshare. Due to the crisis a new opportunity for Elin is to attempt to develop business in new markets.For instance a good opportunity would be invest in renewable energy and LPG (Liquefied PetroleumGas). Another factor to take into consideration is the constant change in taxation system along withmarket regulation forced by the Greek government. Finally, another opportunity for Elin is to try tobecome more extrovert and try to penetrate in the market of the Balkans.


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