Rev. auly OF THAT AN,

Rev. 1 auly 25 .1975)

NUS-'1416

ESTIMATE OF THE PROBABILITY THAT AN, AIRCRAFT

WILL IMPACT THE PVNGS

Prepared forARIZONA .NUCLEAR POWER PR03'EC7

3'une, 1975,

THE ATTACHED FILES ARE OFFICIAL RECORDS~ 'OF THE OFFICE OF REGULATION..THEY HAVE

BEEN CHARGED TO YOU FOR A LIMITEDTIME" PERIOD ANS MUST BE RETURNED TO THECENTRAL RECORDS STATION 008. ANY,.PAGE(S)

'REMOVED FOR REPRODUCTION MUST BE RETURNEDTO ITS/THEIR ORIGINALORDER.

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DEADLINE-:RETURNDATE - ~~~ ~~2I

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CENTRAL RECORDS STATION

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NUS-1416

ESTIMATE OF THE PROBABILITYTHAT AN AIRCRAFTWILL IMPACT THE PVNGS

"" Prepared for

ARIZONA NUCLEAR POWER PROJECT

by

Kenneth A. Solomon, Ph.D.

E. R. SchmidtManager, Plant Department

NUS CORPORATION14011 Ventura Blvd.

Sherman Oaks, California 91423

June 1975Revision 1 7/25/75

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

INTRODUCTIONPAGE

I.2I.3

Purpose

Scope of Study

Study Basis

ESTIMATE OF THE ANNUALPROBABILITYTHAT AN AIRCRAFTWILL IMPACT THE PVNGS

AirActivity in the Vicinityof the PVNGS

11.1.1

II.1. 2

II.1. 3

II.1.4II.1. 5

II.l. 6

Alert Areas A-231 and A-232

Luke Air Force Base to Gila BendGunnery Range

Airways V-16 and V-94

Buckeye Airport

Pierce Airport

Other AirActivity

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II.2

II.3

Aircraft Crash Probability Per Mile

PUNGS Effective Plant Area

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II.4 Estimate of the Aircraft Impact Probability PerYear Into The PVNGS

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APPENDK A. 1* AIRCRAFT CRASEI PROBABELITY PER MILE

A. 1-1 Purpose (or category) of Flight 19

A.1-2

A.l-3Mode of Aircraft Flight

Other Factors Affecting Aircraft Crash Probability

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A. 1-4 Summary 21

APPENDK A.2 EFFECTIVE PLANT AREA, AE

A.2-1 True Plant Area

A.2-2 Shadow Area

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TABLE OF CONTENTS(cont'd)

PAGE

A.2-3 Skid Area

A.2-4 Total Effective Plant Area

APPENDIX A. 3 FORMULATION OF AIRCRAFT CRASH PROBABILITYPER EFFECTIVE PLANT AREA

APPENDIX A. 4 ESTIMATE,OF THE AIRCRAFT CRASH PROBABILITYPER EFFECTIVE, PLANT AREA

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A.4-1

A.4-2

A ~ 4-3

Estimate of the Probability Per Year That An Aircraft . 4lTraveling Between Luke AFB and Gila Bend GunneryRange Will Impact PVNGS

Estimate of the Probability Per Year That An Aircraft .42Traveling Along V-16 Will Impact PVNGS

Estimate of the Probability Per Year That An Aircraft 43Travelling Along V-94 Will Impact PVNGS

APPENDIX B GLOSSARY 44

REFERENCES 53

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LIST OF TABLESPAGE

'ableII.2-1

Table II.2-2

Table II.2-3

Table III.4-1

Table A. 1-1

Table A.1-2

AIR ACTIVITIES AREA NEAR PVNGS

FLIGHT CATEGORIES USED IN THIS STUDY

MODE OF OPERATIONS USED IN THIS STUDY

ESTIMATE OF THE PROBABILITYTHATANAIRCRAFT VlILLIMPACT THE PVNGS

AIRCRAFT ACCIDENT STATISTICS AS A FUNCTIONOF THE )TH FLIGHT CATEGORY

AIRCRAFT ACCIDENT STATISTICS AS A FUNCTIONOF BOTH THE jTH FLIGHT CATEGORY AND THEkTH MODE OF OPERATION

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Table A.2-1

Table A. 2-2

BUILDINGAND AIRCRAFT DIMENSIONS

TOTAL EFFECTIVE PLANT AREA

35

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1

Figure 2

Figure A.3-1

Alert Areas and Traffic Patterns for Palo Verde Site

Airports in the Environs of PVNGS Site'',;. '

Straight Line Flight Path Near PVNGS

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SUMMARY:

The probability that any aircraft (of any size) will impact the PVNGS is-8

estimated to be less than 6.0 x 10 per year (see Table III.4-1). This

estimate is based on conservative input assumptions and can be considered

as an upper bound estimate. It is important to mention that this estimate does

not represent the probability of having a major accident at PVNGS, but,

rather, this estimate can be considered to represent the probability of alltypes of postulated aircraft accidents into the. PVNGS (including a postulated

strike from small aircraft and a postulated glancing angle strike of a large

aircraft) .. The probability that a DC-10 (the largest aircraft expected in the

Site vicinity) willdirectly impact the PVNGS is estimated to be less than-8

10 per year. On previous studies of other nuclea'r reactor sites, con-

struction of reactor containments to withstand direct aircraft impact has been

required when the yearly probability of direct impact by an aircraft of sufficient-6

size to cause damage has been estimated to range between 1 x 10 to-7

1 x 10 or greater.

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INTRODUCTION

Puruose

This study has been prepared for the Arizona Nuclear Power Project, (ANPP),

for their Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station, (PVNGS) .. The purpose ofthis study is to estimate the annual probability that an aircraft will impactthe PVNGS. Also, this report provides a complete description of all airactivities in the alert areas A-231 and A-232;,Luke Air Force Base and

other military facilities in the area; Airways V-16 and V-'94; and Buckeye

Airport and Pierce Airport. This description includes the characteristicsof the aircraft used, types (i.e., categories) of operations, operations per

year, aircraft altitudes and speeds, pilot experience, and all other informationthat may affect the possible risk imposed by these flights upon the plant(including a determination of what munitions, ifany, are carried on boardthe aircraft) .

I.2 Sco e of Stud

The study scope is as follows:

(1) Determine the location of all air activity in the vicinity of the PVNGS.

This air activity includes airports and airfields, airways, militaryfacilities, and locations of aerial application. Also, determine ifexpansion of the air activity is anticipated in the.future.

(2) Determine the type of aircraft involved in this air activity,,the ex-

pected number of yearly operations, the expected range in aircraR

speeds, pilot experience and purpose of flight operation.l

(3) Based on national aircraft accident data, estimate the crash probability

per mile as a function of accident magnitude, category of operation,

and mode of flight.

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(4) Estimate the PVNGS effective plant area.

(5) Based on the accident rate per mile, the location of the PVNGS re-

lative to the air activity, and the effective plant area, estimate the

aircraft impact probability per year at the PVNGS.

This study is based on the following criteria:

National aircraft accident statistics have been used to estimate the

accident rate as a function of flight category and flight mode. Local

crash statistics have been examined, but they have not been used

due to the relatively small number of aircraft crashes in the local

region. After examination of these limited number of local crashes,

it appears that the local region, relative to the rest of the United

States, has an approximately average potential for aircraft crashes.

2. For the purpose of this study, aircraft accidents statistics are

divided into three categories; Class A, Class B, and Class C.

Class A accidents (total) include all aircraft accidents that involve in

jury (no matter how trivial) or mortality to ground personnel, other

ground population, flight crew, or passengers.— Class A accidents(total)

also include all aircraft accidents that involve any degree of pro-

perty loss. Class B accidents (major) are that subset of Class A accidents

(total) that could cause the aircraft to crash or collide with any structure

not at the airport. Class B accidents (major) may or may not involve

human injury or mortality but do involve some property, aircraft, or equip

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ment damage or loss. Class C accidents (fatal) -are that subset ofClass A accidents (total) which causes one or more human fatalities.For the purpose of this study and in an effort to remain conservative,

the Class B (rather than the more often used Ciass C) aircraft accident

rate is used. There are more Class A accidents (total) than Class B

accidents (major) and there are more Class B accidents (major) than

Class C accidents (fatal).

3 The effective plant area for the three PVNGS units is calculated

for the three containment buildings, the three fuel buildings,

and the three radwaste buildings as a function of aircraft type and

speed. The total effective plant area for the entire PVNGS Site

is calculated to be equal to the sum of the effective plant areas

of each of the nine structures specified above. In order to remain

conservative, no credit has been taken for the'tructures mutual

shadowing and shielding.

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ESTIMATE OF THE ANNUALPROBABILITYTHAT AN AIRCRAFTWILL IMPACT THE PVNGS

II.1 Air Activit in the Vicinit of the PVNGS

The air'activities originating from:

l. Alert areas A-231 and A-'232;

2. Luke Air Force Base to the Gila Bend GunneryRange Air Route;

3. 'irways V-16 and V-94;

4 ~ Buckeye Airport; and

5. Pierce Airport

are discussed below.

There are currently no air activity nor is there expected to be any air activityin the future at Mauldin Airstrip, Perryville Airstrip and Gila Compressor

Airstrip. Aircraft flights at Phoenix Litchfield and William Air Force(7)

Base are not expected to affect the air space near the PVNGS. (11)

The location of the alert areas is shown in Figure 1 and the location of the

airports in the environ of the PVNGS site is shown in Figure 2.

II. l. 1 Alert Areas A-231 and A-232

The type of aircraft present in the alert areas A-231, A-232A and A-232B, and

A-232C are (1) F104 Starfighter Jets; (2) F4 Phantom jets; and (3) F15 Eagle

Jets. Aircraft weight varies from 20, 000 pounds to 55, 000 pounds (maximum

limitwhen loaded). The F104 Starfighter jets are the largest of the three(1.,2)aircraft identified in the alert areas.

Aircraft speeds vary from 300 Knots true air speed (approximately 346 miles

per hour) to 450 Knots true air speed (approximately 516 miles per hour) in

the southern end of A-232. (1, 2)

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There are approximately 160 sorties per day, 5 days per week (or approximately

42, 000 sorties per year); out of Luke AFB. All enter A-231 airspace and most

enter A-232 airspace. Aircraft pass through alert areas A-231 and A-232(1, 2)

en route to'training areas (see Figure 1). '. The distance from these alert(12-14)

areas to the PVNGS and the altitudes. of these alert areas is given in

Table 2.2-1 of the PVNGS PSAR.

(1,2)The aircraft carry training munitions only. These munitions are:

BDU —33 recoverable, practice bombs (they are 25 pounds each and

carry a low explosive, i. e., "spotting charge").

2. MK - 106 recoverable, practice bombs (they are 10 pounds each and

carry the same charge as the BDU-33); and

3. 2. 75 inch diameter rocket, powered by a low explosive propellant

with no charge.

There is a high degree of pilot experience among the cadre. The majority of

the non-cadre pilots are less experienced, however. These less experienced

pilots are under the constant supervision of the cadre. No expansion of

aircraft activity in A-231 and A-232 is anticipated in the future. (2)

IL1. 2 Luke Air Force Base to Gila Bend Gunne Ran e

Luke.Air Force Base is located approximatel'y 33 miles east-northeast (ENE)

of the PVNGS (see Figure 1). Of the approximately 160 jet aircraft sorties

out of Luke AFB per day, the major portion of these sorties travel along an

approximately straight line from Luke AFB to Gila Bend Gunnery Range, about

75 miles south-southeast (SSW) of Luke AFB. The purpose of these missions

is to use the gunnery range at Gila Bend, The munitions carried on-board

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these aircraft and pilot experience are discussed in Section II.l.labove.

These aircraft return from Gila Bend Gunnery Range back to Luke AFB along

approximately the same path. Since the jet aircraft travel from Luke AFB

to Gila Bend Gunnery Range and return on an expected total of less than 42,000

sorties per year, there are less than 84,000 Qights back and forth per year. (1,2)

The type of jet aircraft flying from Luke AFB to Gila Bend Gunnery Range are

F104 Starfighters, F4 Phantoms and F15 Eagles. These aircraft travel at

true air speeds ranging from 300 Knots (approximately 346 miles per hour)

to 450 Knots (approximately 516 miles per hour). They travel at altitudes

ranging from 4, 000 to 6, 000 feet above ground level. These jet aircraft are

not expected to pass closer than approximately 14 miles east-southeast (ESE)

f th PVNGS(l, 2, 12, 13, 14)

No expansion of Luke AFB (including average number of daily aircraft operations)

is anticipated in the future. Luke AFB Airfields which number two through

eleven inclusive are not currently in operation, nor are they expected to be

put into operation at a future date. (1, 2)

II. 1. 3, Airways V-16 and V-94

1.1.3. ~60 0

The airway V-16 (bearing 262 west of the Buckeye Vortac and bearing 258

east of the Buckeye Vortac) passes to within 5 miles north (N) 'of the PVNGS(12, 14)

at its closest point (see Figure 1)

There are an approximate average of 70 aircraft obeying IFR (Instrument Flight

Rules) along V-16 per day. There is an average of less than 200 aircraft

obeying VFR (Visual Flight Rules) in the vicinity of V-16 per day. Hence, the

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total expected number of aircraft operations along or near V-16 (both IFR

and VFR) averages less than 2-70 per day (or less than. approximately 100,000

operations per year). The aircraft in the vicinity of V-16 and along V-16 in-

clude about 1/3 air carrier and 2/3 general aviation operations. The air-

craft in the vicinity of V-16 and along V-16 range in size from single and(4, 5)twin engine propeller aircraft to DC-10 Jet Aircraft.

The operations along V-16=are expected to travel at true air speeds ranging

from 100 miles per hour (for smaller general aviation aircraft) to 500 miles I Rev. 1

per hour (for larger air carrier-aircraft). The number of aircraft operations

along V-16 is not expected to increase appreciably during the lifetime of

the PVNGS. The air carrier flights transport passengers and/or cargo and

are piloted by experienced, trained air carrier pilots that are assisted by(3,4, 5)co-pilots. The experience of those pilots flying general aviation is varied.

The airway V-94 (bearing 285 west of the Gila Bend Vortac) passes no closer0

than 20 miles southwest (SW) of the PVNGS (see Figure 1). (12, 14)

There are less than =100,000 operations per year along or near V-94. About

1/3 of these operations are U.S. Air Carrier and the remaining 2/3's are

U.S. General Aviation. The aircraft in the vicinity of V-94 and along V-94,

range in size from single and twin engine propeller aircraft to DC-10 jet\"

I (3,4,5)

The operations along V-94 are expected to travel at true air speeds ranging

from 100 miles per hour (for smaller general aviation aircraft) to 500 miles

per hour (for larger air carrier aircraft). The number of aircraft operations

along V-94 is not expected to increase appreciably during the lifetime of

the PVNGS. The air carrier flights transport passengers and/or cargo and

Revision 1 7/25/75

5

and are piloted by experienced, trained air carrier pilots assisted'by

co-pilots. The experience of. those pilots flying general aviation is

varied.

II.1.4 Bucke e Ai ort

Buckeye Airport is located approximately 11 miles east-northeast (ENE) ofthe PVNGS (see Figure 2). 'uckeye is a private airport. Twenty-(12, 14)

three general aviation single and twin engine aircraft are based at Buckeye

Airport. About 15 to 20 of these 23 general aviation aircraft are converted

B-25's used almost exclusively for Qre fighting and sometimes for other civilapplications. About 3 to 8 of these 23 aircraft are use'd for pleasure

flights. The approximate landing and takeoff speed at Buckeye Airport(7)

ranges from 60 mph to 70 mph. Inflight speed is not expected to exceed

about 150 mph. The pilots using'Buckeye Airport are general aviation pilotscertified on single engine aircraft (or twin engine aircraft when applicable) .

(6,8)Some of these pilots have general aviation/application experience.

The largest type of aircraft likely to land at'uckeye Airport is a converted

B-25. There are no helicopter operations at Buckeye Airport. (5,6,7,8)

The runway at Buckeye Airport is north to south with a left traffic pattern.

The average number of weekly operations at Buckeye Airport is 150, (or

approximately 8,000 per year). No expansion, of the Buckeye Airport is

anticipated at a future date. (5,8)

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Pierce Airport is located approximately 13 miles east-southeast (ESE) ofPVNGS (see Figure 2) ' Pierce is a private facility used almost(12,14)

exclusively by farmers for crop-dusting (i.e., very low altitude, aerialapplication flights). There are, approximately 10,000 operations per year

(9)out of Pierce Airport.

There are 17 single engine aircraft based at Pierce Airport. The aircraft, are

flown by pilots that have varying degrees of experience flying crop dusters.However, the majority of these pilots have more extensive crop dusting ex-

P, S,9)perience.

The takeoff and landing speeds of these single, engine aircraft varies between50 miles per hour and 80 miles per hour. The inflight speed is not expectedto exceed 150 miles per hour. (4,7, S,g)

No expansion of Pierce Airport is anticipated during the expected lifetime ofthe PVNGS. (7)

II. l. 6 Other AirActivit

II. l. 6. 1 Mauldin Airstri

Mauldin Airstrip (located approximately 10 miles north-northwest (NNW) ofPVNGS) is not currently in operation and it is not expected to be put into

(7,12-14)operation at a future date.

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II.'1. 6. 2 Pe ville Airstri

Perryville Airstrip (located approximately 20 miles east (E) of PVNGS) is not

currently in operation and it is not expected to be put into operation at a(7,12-14)future date.

II. l. 6. 3 Gila Com ressor Airstri

Gila Compressor Airstrip (located approximately 10 miles south (S) of PVNGS)

is not currently in operation and is not expected to be put into operation at(7, 12-14)

a future date.

IL'. 6. 4 Phoenix-Litchfield

The Phoenix-Litchfield Airport has no flights expected in the PVNGS environ. (12-14)

II. 1. 6. 5 Williams Air Force Base

There are no flights from Williams AFB on a regular basis that travel withinthe PVNGS environs. Primary operations are to the east, northeast, and

southwest of the base. Possibly, only an occasional transient aircraft from

the west of the base'may pass through the PVNGS environs. If so, it would

be along an established airway, (viz., V-16 or V-94). (11-14)—

II. 2 Aircraft Crash Probabilit Per Mile

The aircraft crash probability per mile as a function of flight.category and mode

of flight is compiled in Appendix A. 1, Tables A. 1-1 and A. 1-2. The infor-mation that is presented is collected from various sources including militaryaircraft operational and accident data (1 6-20)

U. S. General Aviation and(21-28)

U. S. Air Carrier operational and accident. data , and previous aircraftaccident studies. (29-48)

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The aircraft crash probability per mile is a strong function of the flightcategory and flight mode. The air activities examined in this study aredefined in Table II.2-1. The flight categories used in this study are de-fined in Table II.2-2. The flight modes used in this study are defined inTable II.2-3.

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TA/LE I$ ';2-1

AIR ACTIVITIESAREA NEAR PVNGS

Stud Index

i=2

i=3

AirActivities Area

Luke AFB to Gila Bend GunneryRange

Airway V-16

Airway V-94

TABLE II. 2-2

PLIGHT CATEGORIES USED IN THIS STUDY

Stud Index Fli ht Cate or

j=2

j=3

j=4

j=5

j=7

j=s

U. S. Certified Route Carriers Only

U. S. Certified Air. Carrier Only

U. S. General Aviation-Instructional Only

U. S. General Aviation-Business/CorporateOnly

U. S. General Aviation-Pleasure Only

U. S. General Aviation-Aerial Applicationonly

U. S. General Aviation-AirTaxi Only

U. S. (non-combat) Military

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TABLE II. 2-3

MODE OF OPEfRTIONS USED'IN THIS STUDY

Stud Index

k=1

.k=2

k=3

takeoff (within 5 miles of airport)

inf light

landing (within 5 miles of a'irport)

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II. 3 PVNGS Effective Plant Area

The PVNGS Effective Plant Area is estimated in Appendix A. 2 and is listedin Table A. 2-2. The Effective PVNGS Plant Area (for the three PVNGS units)

is estimated for the following structures: the three containment buildings,the three fuel buildings, and the three radwaste buildings.

The Effective Plant Area is a function of

(1) The True Plant Area., The true plant area is equal to the sum of the

(2)

(3)

base areas of each of the identified structures;

The Shadow Area. The size of the shadow area for each of the

identified structures is a function of the structure height and the

angle of postulated aircraft impact; and

The Skid Area. The skid area for each of the identified structures

is the area immediately adjacent to the structure into which an

aircraft can be postulated to skid. The size of the skid area isa function of aircraft speed, weight, dimensions, and the terrainadjacent to the structure ~

Estimate of the Aircraft Im act Probabilit Per Year Into thePVNGS

Appendix A. 3 and Appendix A. 4 include formulation and calculations to estimate

the aircraft impact probability per year into the PVNGS as a function of airactivity. Table II.4-1 is a summary of these. estimates. Rev.l

The probability that any aircraft (of any size) will impact the PVNGS is-8

estimated to be less than 6. 0 x 10 per year. This probability is estimated

using the Best Estimate Technique. (37, 41)The probabilities llstqd in

Table II.4-1 are based on conservative input parameters; therefore, these

probabilities can be considered as upper bound values. It is very important

Rev.l

Revision 1 7/2S/75

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to mention that the probabilities listed in Table 11.4-1 do not necessarily,

represent the probabilities of having a major accident at PVNGS, but rather

these probabilities could be considered to repres'ent all types of aircraft .

strikes into the PVNGS. Some of these postulated aircraft strikes are not

considered serious enough to impair plant operation (e.g., an impact ofa small aircraft or a glancing angle of a large aircraft) .

Rev. 1

-17-Revision 1 7/25/75

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TABLE II.4-1 Rev. 1

ESTIMATE OF THE PROBABILITYTHAT AN AIRCRAFT WILLIMPACT THE PVNGS

AirActivityOriginatingFrom

(Minimum[DistanceRelative toPVNGS miles

ApproximateNumber ofYearly~Oeraticns

Is FutureExpansionA~tntict ated

Largest Typeof AircraftLikely:(on are ular basis

Estimated Probability of aPotential Aircraft Impact atPVNGS er ear

Alert AreasA»231 6. A-232

Luke AFB

Airway V-16

Airway V-94

Buckeye Airport

IPierce Airport

Mauldin Airfield

See Table 2. 2-1of PVNGS PSAR

33 ENE

5 N

20 SW

ll ENE

13 ESE

10 NNW

84, 000

100, 000

100, 000

8, 000

10, 000

Zero

No

No

No

No

No

No

No

F-104 Starfighter

F-104 Starfighter

DC-10

DC-10(')

B-2S

Cessna 310

< 2e7 x 10(

-l,0

< S.8 x '10

x 10-11

(d)

(d)

Rev. 1

Rev. 1-

)tee. i

Perryville Airstrip

Gila CompressorAirstrip

Phoenix Litchfield

Williams AFB

c

20 E Zero No

10 S Zero No

28 E No Flights expected on a regular basis in the PVNGS environ.

60 E No Flights expected on a regular basis in the PVNGS environ.

(b) -8TOTAL ESTIMATED PROBABILlTYTHAT ANYAIRCRAFT WILL IMPACT THE PVNGS < 6. 0 x 10 er ear

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Footnote to Table II.4-1 Rev. 1

(a) Using Best Estimate Technique. (37,41)

(b) Probability includes all types of postulated impacts (e.g., impact ofsmall aircraft, glancing impact of aircraft, etc.) .

(c) Less than 10% of. the flights along the airway or in the vicinityof the airway are expected to be DC-10 aircraft, (the remaining flightswillbe smaller aircraft) . (6)

(d) „According to U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission StandardReview Plan, Section 3.5.1.6, Article IlI.3 O'une 1975):

"II1.3 The probability of an aircraft crashing into the siteshould be estimated for cases where either of the following apply:

a. An airport is located within five miles of the site.2b. An airport with projected operations greater than 500 d

movements per year is located within ten miles of thesite, or an airport with projected operations greater than1000 d movements per year is located beyond ten milesfrom the site, where "d" is the distance in miles fromthe site."

Buckeye Airport is located d=l1 miles from the PVNGS Siteand has 8,000 operations per year. Since 8,000<(1,000) (11)

2

then the probability of an aircraft originating from BuckeyeAirport crashing into the PVNGS Site need not be calculated. Rev. 1

Pierce Airport is located d=l3 miles from the PVNGS Site andhas 10,000 operations per year. Since 10,000< (1,000) (13)

2

then the probability of an aircraft originating from Pierce Airportcrashing into the PVNGS Site need not be estimated ~

-18a-Revision 1 7/25/75

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Appendix A. 1

Aircraft Crash Probabilit Per Mile

The probability per mile that an aircraft will crash is a function of several(15-28,44,45)

factors including:

1. The flight category or purpose of flight (e. g., U. S. General Aviation-

aerial application, U. S. Air Carrier —passenger transport, etc. ).

2. The mode of aircraft flight (viz., takeoff, inflight, or landing);

3. Pilot Experience;

4. Weather Conditions;'.

Time of day;

6. Air traffic density; and

7. Aircraft type.

A. 1-1 Pur ose or cate o of Fli ht

Accident rate is a strong function of flight category. Table A.l-l list's

the aircraft accident rate per million miles as a function of flight category.

The table is generated from.U.S. crash statisti'cs found in references 15

through 28.

The aircraft accident rates are listed for Class A (ail accidents), Class 8

(major accidents), and Class C (fatal accidents) for years 1967 through

1971 or 1972, inclusive; (for U.S. Air Carrier operations, 1972 is the

latest year for which complete air crash statistics are, available, for

U.S. General Aviation, 1971 is the latest year). In general, the aircraft

accident rate has decreased since 1967. As a conservative prediction of

future accident rates, the mean value of accident rates from 1967 through

1972 (or 1971) is used, (15-28)

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I

The probability per mile of a Class B accident for U.S. Certified Route

Carriers only (themajor contribution to U.S. Air Carriers)'s approximately

0.011 x 10 . This probability is approximately 0 ~ 028 x 10 for U,S.-6 -6

Supplemental Air Carriers only. The approximate probability per mile of a-6

Class B accident averaged for all U.S. General Aviation is 0.530 x 10

In particular, the approximate probability per mile of a Class B accident-6

involving, (a) U.S. General Aviation-Instructional only is 0.330 x 10-6

(b) U.S. General Aviation-Business/Corporate only is 0.370 x 10-6

(c) U.S. General Aviation-Pleasure only is 0.940 x 10; (d) U.S. General-6

Aviation-Aerial Application only is 0.790 x 10; and (e) U.S. General-6

Aviation-AirTaxi only is 0.320 x 10

A complete set of accident statistics for U.S. MilitaryAircraft are not

published. However, based on military sources and other sources, it

has been established that the Class B accident rates for military aircraft

on non-.combat missions are of the same order of magnitude as the Class B

accident rates for U.S, Air Carriers. For the purpose of this study(30)

and in an effort to remain conservative, the U.S. Military Class B accident

rate has been postulated to be 5 times greater than the U.S. Air. Carrier

Class B accident rate.

A.1-2 Mode of Aircraft Fli ht

Table A. 1-2 compares the Class B aircraft accident rate (averaged for 1967

to 1971 or. 1972) for each flight category as a function of the takeoff, inflight,and landing mode of operation. The information found in Table A.1-2 is

taken from references 15-45. On an accident per mlle -basis, the safest mode-

of flight is the inflight mode. For the purpose of this study, it is assumed

that takeoff is defined within five miles after takeoff and landing is defined

as the five miles before touchdown. The inflight mode (including climb, in-

Qight, and descent) is defined as the remaining air portion of the operation.

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Other Factors Affectin Aircraft Crash Probabilit

The flight category and the flight mode are the most influential factors affect-ing aircrash probability. Allpilots, (U. S. Air Carrier, U. S. General Aviation,and U. S. Military) must meet a minimum standard of performance. An

increase in a particular pilot's experience over this minimum standard (pro-vided he remain within the same flight category) willnot significantly affect

his ability to fly safely. (15-28)Weather conditions and time of day do, to(21-2S,44,45)some degree, affect aircraft safety. However, these two factors

do not affect safety as significantly as flight category or flight mode.

The effect of air traffic density on aircrash probability Js most influentialnear airports and is quantitatively considered when estimating the aircraftaccident rate during the landing and takeoff mode of flight. Aircraft accidentrate cannot be documented as a strong function of aircraft type. (For example,even though the accident rate is different for a DC-10 and a Boeing 707 air-craft, these differences are mainly due to statistical variances rather than to

one aircraft being "safer" than the other).

A. 1-4 Summary

The probability of an aircraft crash per mile; (P ) is a strong function ofI

the jth category of flight (e.g., U.S. General Aviation-Pleasure Only) and the

kth mode of operation (e.g., landing mode) and a much less strong function ofother parameters.

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TABLE A. 1-1

AIRCRAFT ACCIDENT STATISTICS AS A FUNCTION OF THE 'TH FLIGHT CATEGORY

FLIGHCATEGORY 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972

MeanValue

L U. S. Certified Route& Su lemental Air Carriers

Aircraft Miles Flown (Miles) 2, 16x109

2. 49xl 09

2. 73x10 92. 68x10 2. 66x109 9

2. 62x10 92. 56xl0 9

Accident Rate (per 10 miles)6

Class A (AllAccidents)Class B (Major Accidents)Class C (Fatal Accidents)

0. 0320. 0160. 006

0. 0280. 0140. 005

.0. 0230. 0090. 003

0. 0200. 0080. 003

0. 0180. 0080. 003

0. 0190. 0080. 003

0. 0230. 0110. 004

!. I. 1 U. S. Certified Route CarriersOnly



0. 0320. 0160. 006

0. 028 0. 0230.014 - 0,0090. 005 0. 003

0. 0200. 0080. 003

0. 0180. 0080. 003

0. 0190. 008-0. 003.

0. 0230. 0110. 004

L 2 U. S. Supplemental Air CarriersOnly

'ccident Rate (per 10 miles)6

'lass A IllAccidents) 0. 042Class B (Major Accidents) 0. 025Class C (Fatal Accidents) 0. 010

0. 0790. 0250. 009

0. 017 0. 0650. 060 0. 045

0 0. 032

0. 0100. 005

0

0. 0220, 010

0

0. 0390. 0280. 009

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TABLE A. 1-1 (continued) (2)

AIRCRAF1 ACCIDENT STATISTICS AS A FUNCTION OF FLIGHT CATEGORY

PLIGHTCATEGOR 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972

MeanValue

II. U. S. General Aviation

Aircraft Miles Flown (miles)



3. 44xl0 9

1. 780. 6000. 175

3. 70xl0 9

l. 340. 6500. 186

3. 93xlO9

l. 210. 5000. 164

1. 470. 5000. 200

1. 480. 5000. 211

3. 2lx10 3. 14xl09 9NA

NANANA

93. 48x10

1 ~ 460. 5300. 187

IL 1 ', S. General Avfatfon-Instructional Only



II. 2 U. S. General Aviatfon-Business/Corporate Only



1. 610. 3000. 0636

1. 380. 5000. 147

1. 080. 3500. 0707

0. 9410. 4500. 131

0. 8740. 3000. 0593

1. 080. 4000, 0800

0. 709 „0. 4930. 400 0. 2500. 109 0. 0814

0. 7940. 3000. 0614

0. 4910. 2500. 0820

NANANA

NANANA

1. 090. 3300.0669

0. 8030. 370

-0. 110

II. 3 U. S. General Aviation-Pleasure Only



2. 761. 000. 320

2. 200. 9000. 369

2. 110. 9000. 329

2. 180. 9000. 322

2. 381. 000, 371

NANANA

2. 330. 9400.342

II

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m

m

m

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TABLE A. 1-1 (continued) (3)

FLIGHTCATEGOR

IL 4 U. S. General Aviation-Aerial Application Only




II. 5 U. S. General Aviation - AirTaxi




III. Milita Non-Combat Missions*4*

Approximate Accident Rate(per 106 miles)

Class A (AllAccidents)Glass B (Major Accidents)Class 'C (Fatal Accidents)

1967

2. 560. 9000. 266

0. 9460. 4000. 134

1968

2. 050. 8000. 217

0. 6290. 3000. 160

1969

l. 950. 7000. 175

0. 6570. 3000. 0929

1970

l. 710. 7500. 193

0. 5470. 3000. 109

1971

2. 000. 8000. 203

0. 5140. 3000. 111

1972

NANANA

NANANA

MeanValue

2. 050. 7900. 211

0. 6590. 3200. 121

0.1150.0550.020

* Based on U. S. crash statistics. Local crash statistics have been examined but notused due to the relatively small number of aircraft crashes in the local regions (f. e.,the limited number of local crashes do not provide a sufficient data base).

** Data not available as of start of this study.***Postulated to be equal to 5 times the U.S. Air Carrier rate.

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TABLE A, 1-2

AIRCRAFT ACCIDENT STATISTICS AS A FUNCTION OF BOTH THETH FLIGHT CATEGORY AND THE kTH MODE OF OPERATION

MODE OFFLIGHT OPERATIONCATEGOR i

I IIStatic Taxi

IIITakeoff

k=1

IV V VIClimb Inf light Descent

VIILanding

k 3***

U. S. Certified Route &Su lemental Air Carriers

Class B Accident (MajorAccident)Rate per mode per 10 miles(Averaged 1967-1972) .

Class B Accident Rate AveragedFor All Modes Per 106 Miles

0. 011

0.116 0. 00519 0. 450

I. 1 U. S. Certified Route CarriersOnly

Class B Accident (Ma/orAccident)Rate per mode per 10 miles(Averaged 1967-1972)


0. 011

0.126 0,00519 0. 450

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FLIGHT CATEGOR %

I. 2 U. S. Supplemental RouteCarriers Only

I IIStatic, Taxi

IIITakeoff

k=1*

TABLE A. 1-2 (cont'd) (2)

VIILanding

1h'**k=3

IV V VIClimb Inflight Descent

Class B Accident (MajorAccident)Rate per mode per 10 miles(Averaged 1967-1972) 0.293 0.0132 l. 15

Class B Accident Rate AveragedFor All Modes For 106 Miles= 0. 028

II U. S. General Aviation

Class B Accident (MajorAccidents)Rate per mode per 10 miles(Averaged 1967-1972)

Class B Accident Rate AveragedFor All Modes Per 10 Miles= 0. 530

2.44 0. 318 2.44

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O

FLIGHT CATEGORYQ

II. 1 U. S. General Aviation-Ins tructiona1 Only

Class B Accident (MajorAccident)Rate per mode per 10 miles(Averaged 1967-1972)


0.330

I IIStatic Taxi

IIITakeoff

k=1*

1.53

2**

0.198

VI VIILanding

***k=3

1.01


I

'

II. 2 U. S. General Aviation- Businessand Corporate Only

Class B Accident (MajorAccident)Rate per mode per 10 milesaveraged 1967-1972)

Class 8 Accident Rate For AllModes Per 106 Miles= 0. 370

1.71 0.222 1 ~ 21

l

R

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0

PLIGHT CATEGORY +

II. 3 U. S. General Aviation-Pleasure Only

I IIStatic Taxi


VIILanding

***k=3

III IV V VI. Takeoff - Climb Inflight Descent

k=1* k=2**

I

COI


Class B Accident Rate For- All Modes Per 10 Miles

= 0. 940

II. 4 U. S. General Aviation-AerialApplication Only


Class B Accident Rate ForAll Modes Per 10 Miles= 0. 790

4.23

2. 37

0. 564

0. 474

6.35

1.74

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FLIGHT CATEGOR

II. 5 U. S. General Aviation-Air Taxi Only

I IIStatic Taxi

IIITakeoff

k=1*

I

TABLE A. 1-2 (cont'd). (5)

VIILanding~r

k=3

IV V VIClimb Inflight Descent

k=2

Class B Accident (Major, Accident)

Rate per mode per 10 miles(Averaged 1967-1972)

Class B Accident RateFor All Modes Per 10 Miles

0. 320

1.47 0.192 1.23

. Class B Accident (MajorAccident)Rate per mode per 10 miles(Averaged 1967-1972)Assumed equal to U. S. AirCarrier's rate per mode

0 ~ 580 0.0260'.25Class -B Accident RateFor All Modes Per 106 Miles

0.055

Within 5 miles after takeoff.Includes the sum of climb, inflight, and descent submodes hereafter labelled as inflight mode.Greater than 5 miles from airport of operation.Within 5 mQes of touchdown.

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APPENDIX A. 2

EFFECTIVE PLANT AREA A

In principle, for a given plant configuration, one can estimate an effectiveplant area, (the effective plant area is defined as the ground surface area

into which, without the plant, an aircraft would hit and cause, with the(41)plant, a strike into the plant), once the aircraft dimensions; approach

'irectionand angle from vertical; and skid length upon impact are known.

The effective plant area is the sum of the true plant ~area (with horizontal

dimensions modified to include aircraft width); the shadow area, (closelycorrelated to the vertical angle of approach and building height); and the

aircraft skid ~area (in front of the plant).

A. 2-1 True Plant Area

The true plant area is the total amount of land occupied by the plant, (i. e.,it is the "base area" of the plant). For example, a cylindrical building ofradius r, (postulated to have been impacted by an aircraft of point dimension),

has a true plant area of A where:p

A =77r (A.. 2-1)2

p

A. 2-2 Shadow Area

The shadow area depends on both the building height and on the assumed angle

of approach', (a is the angle that the aircraft makes with the horizon at the

postulated impact point) . This shadow area (not including the true plant area), is

the area obtained by a cylindrical projection following the anglea. In other words,

it is the shadow cast by the building due to a projected angle of a. The sum of

the true plant area, A, and the shadow area, A,'s defined, for the purpose of.p s

(31)this study, as the virtual surface (or virtual area of the plant) .

A =A +Av s p(A.2-2)

Ill

ill

L

L

L

L

L

L

For a PWR building of diameter D=2r and height H, and fixed value of Q

upper hemispherical dome, the P'NR building virtual area is approximated: (31)

En equation (A.2-3), virtual surface determination is estimated assuming

that the aircraft is a physical point. Aircraft dimensions are not negligible with

respect to building dimensions. Building dimensions can be artifically in-

creased to account for aircraft dimensions by adding a distance "d" (where d=one

half of aircraft wing span) to the building dimensions. The PWR building virtual

surface is then increased to:

{~D+ df {3+'~2) {D+ dj {~ D+d)

Since skid area is generally considerably larger than virtual area,

(especially for faster aircraft), the total effective plant area is much

more sensitive to skid distance than it is to angle of impact, Q. It0 0

can be shown that even forQ as small as 10 to 15, the total effective

plant areas given in Table A.2-2 are still valid. Furthermore, the

effective plant areas given in Table A. 2-2 are larger than the effective

plant areas estimated in several previous reactor/postulated aircraft

impact. studies ' ' and in part are approximately equal(29,30,32-35, 38,42)

(37, aS)to the effective plant areas estimated in a study by Cornell.

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There is a similar analysis for non-cylindrical buildings. For a(44,45)

rectangular building whose base dimensions are a and b and whoseheight is z, the virtual area of the building is

azAv tan Q

+ ab (A.2-S)

for an aircraft of zero dimension travelling parallel to the site of the building

whose dimension is b. 'or an aircraft of width 2d travelling in(44, aS)

an arbitrary direction, the maximum virtual area is2+b2 1/2 ~2d

A (max) =Q

+a(b + 2d)v - . tan Q(A. 2-6)

2 2 1/2where (a + b ) is equal to the maximum building diameter seen by theapproaching aircraft and where b<a and b + 2d-) a.

Table A. 2-1 lists the building dimensions of the three containment buildings,

the three fuel buildings, and the three radwaste buildings.*

The table also

lists the values of d for various aircraft.

The total virtual surface for all three reactor units is less than three times

the virtual surface for a single reactor unit because of the mutual shadowing

effect of each of the reactor units, (i. e., an aircraft would be less likelyto impact a unit that was "shadowed" or "shielded" by another unit immedi-

ately in front of it). The assumption that the total virtual surface for allthree reactor units is three times the virtual surface of a single unit is

conservative (i. e., it will "overestimate" the true virtual surface).

* For the purpose of this.study, a single PVNGS unit is defined asa single containment building, a single fuel building, plus a singleradwas te building.

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A.2-3 Skid Area

Ifan aircraft were postulated to impact the land immediately in front of a

structure, it is conceivable that the aircraft might skid into that structure.

Depending on aircraft weight, size and its horizontal component of velocity,the aircraft can skid up to approximately 1 mile, (for a high velocity militaryaircraft on a very smooth terrain). 'or a high velocity military air-(37,41)

craft, the skid length is typically 0.6 miles. For a U.S. Air Carrier the

typical skid length may be 0.3 miles and for a U.S. General Aviation, the

skid length is typically 0.06 miles. (22-27,37,41)

Insight into the phenomenon of skidding may be gained by considering the

motion of an aircraft on the ground as the linear motion of a body with an

initial horizontal velocity V (mph) and a uniform deceleration equal to a0

multiple K of gravity. The simplest model leads,to a skid distance of

Xm = (6. 3 x 10 ) ( o) miles. Q.2-7)

-6 Vo

The value of K is directly proportional to the amount of friction between the

skidding aircraft and the terrain. Typical values of K may be estimated to(37,41,44)vary between 2.5 and 5.

The maximum skid area, A, is defined as the product of the sum of them'idthsof the impacting aircraft and the building postulated to be impacted

and the skid distance, then

A = (2d + D) (X ) (A.2-8)m m

D (a2 + b2)2 1/2

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A ~ 2-4 Total Effective Plant Area

The total effective plant area, AE(total) for the three containment buildings,(viz., C1, C2 and C ); plus the three radwaste buildings, (viz., Rl, R, andR ); plus the three fuel buildings, (viz., F, -F, and F ), can be estimated1''

's

the sum of the virtual areas and the skid areas for each of the nine structures:

A (total)=(3) A (C) + A (R)+A (F)LE v 1 v 1 v 1)

+3~A Cl +A Rl +A F )I~m 1 m 1 m lf (A. 2-7)

In other words, it is assumed that for all nine structures both the virtual and

the skid areas are cumulative (i.e., 'no credit is taken for shadowing) ~

Table A. 2-2 lists the total effective plant area, A (total) as a function of the type

of aircraft postulated to impact. The total effective plant area (for three con-

tainment buildings, three fuel buildings, and three radwaste buildings), is

less than or equal to 0. 05 square miles if a general aviation aircraft is postu-

lated to impact. If a larger, faster DC-10 or F-104 Starfighter were postulated

to impact, then the rotal effective plant area could be increased to as much

as 0.2 to 0 ~ 3 square miles respectively.

Rev'.

The calculation of total effective plant area in this report is based on con-

servative formulations and.is generally larger than the effective plant area(29, 30, 32-35, 38, 42)

calculated in previous studies, for other reactor units,(37, 41)

and, in part, is comparable to the effective plant area used by Cornell.

* Where it is assumed that A (C )='A (C ) =A (C );v 1 v 2 v 3'(R1) A (R) A R 'l A F A F

A (Cl =.A (C2 =A (C3); A (Rl =A (R ) =A (R );

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TABLEA.2-1

~ 'UILDINGAND AIRCRAFT DIMENSIONS

Buildin'l'ircraftT e

1. Three'ontainmentbuildkngs. *

*2, Three fuel buildin'gy.

3. Three radwaste buildings.

Di&ensions

3. L~182ft., W= 98ft., H= 60ft.

1. H < 200 ft., D < 175 ft.

2. L = 120 ft., W = 86 ft., H = 103 ft.

4. DC-10 Aircraft

5. Typical general aviation aircraft.

4.

5.

d<81 ft.

d < 20 ft."')

6. Luke AFB 7et Aircraft (includingF104 Starfighter)

6. d < 30 ft.

* Please refer to Figure 3.1-9 of the PVNGS ER for relative locations of the buildings.Building dimensions are taken from Section 3. l. 3. of the PVNGS ER and Section 1.2of the PVNGS PSAR.

1

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Table A.2-2

TOTAL EFFECTlVE PLANT AREA

Aircraft That Has 'Been Postulated to Impact

Total Effective Plant area .

three PVNGS units*

GeneralAviation

0.05mi 2

F-104 Starfighteret

0.3 mi2

DC-10

0.2 mi2

* For the purpose of this study the estimate of A is based on the following:E

(1) Each of the three PVNGS units consists of one containmentstructure, one fuel building, and one radwaste building(i.e., a total of 9 structures for 3 PVNGS units).

(2) The total effective target area is.the sum of the effectivetarget areas of each of the nine structures, (i.e., no credit

~ has been given to shielding or shadowing of structures) . Rev.

(3) The effective target area of each structures is equal to the sumof the true target area, the shadow area, and the skid areasassociated with the structure and th'e aircraft postulated to impact.

(4) Target areas are valid for ai'rcraft travelling at maximum speed.

(5) The angle of impact, a, is greater than or equal to 15 relative toa horizontal plane.

(6) . Maximum"building dimensions are used (e.g., a rectangularbuilding of sides a and b is conservatively assumed to havean equivalent true plant area equal to a circular building ofdiameter

(2 2)1/2

max

(7) The total effective target area includes aircraft width.

-36-Revision 1 7/25/75

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APPENDIX '.. 3

FORMULATIONOF AIRCRAFT CRASH PROBABILITYPER EFFECTIVE PLANT AREA

In this section the aircraft crash probability per effective plant area is formu-

lated from Cornell's Best-Estimate Model. 'he Best-Estimate model(37, 41)

uses a Gaussian shaped probability distribution to estimate the postulated

aircraft impact location orthonormal to the intended flight path at the point

at which difficultyoriginated.

All of the intended aircraft paths, (Luke AFB to Gila Bend Gunnery Range,

Airway V-l6, Airway V-94 are approximately straight for a sufficient

distance either side of the PVNGS. In the special case of the straight(41)

path, the probability that aircraft will impact a particular point diminishes

with the projected (orthonormal) distance, (x ), from the location on thep

path at which the trouble began (see Figure A.3-1) .

For any impact distribution, f(x), the probability that a given impact is in

a strip of width Ah, located at a distance x and parallel to the intendedp

flight path is~h~f(x ). Postulating that there is such a hit (and assumingp

that the intended path is straight, a sufficient distance either side of the

plant), there is no information provided about the 'longitudinal location of

the hit or the point of origin of the accident. Therefore, the event that the

postulated impact point lies in anyperpendicular strip of width AL (see

Figure A.3-1) is probabilistically independent of the event that the point lies

in the Ah strip. As a consequence, the probability of the joint occurrence

of the two events along flight path i, (i. e., a PVNGS impact due to an air-

craft along flight path i), is the product of their probabilities or

[Ah]~f(x )~[P~AL]where P is the crash probability per mile.p

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For an aircraft in the jth category of flight and.in the kth mode of operation,

the impact distribution function. is f (x) and the crash probability'per mile1

is P k. The probability, P, that any aircraft travelling along flight path It

I'illimpact a specified target is

p= gg Q,h~f (x)) ~ (P k+bL) (A.3-1)j, k j> k

The total probability per year that any aircraft in any of the i flight paths,

in any of the j flight categories, and in any of the k modes of operation will

impact the PVNGS is Pt where:tot

where

=EX/ (Ni ' e(A )'(x)) ~ P . (A.3-2)tot ijk i3k E k jk jk

N = The number of operations per year in flight path i; of category j;i, j, k

and in mode of flight k (see Table III.4-1)

A = LL ~~h = The effective plant area for an aircraft of flightE. jk jk

category j and mode of flight k (see Appendix A. 2)

P. = The probability per mile that an aircraft in flight category j and modej,k

of flight k willcrash,(see Table A. 1-2)

f. (x) = The distribution of impacts, orthonormal,to the intended flight pathj,k

(discussed below).

(37, 41)For f (x) there is, unfortunately, almost no data, 'ecause it is very

j,kdifficult to establish the exact location and distance of the plane when the

trouble leading to the crash originated. The function f. k(x) is anticipated toj,k

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be symmetrical and decay away from the origin (i.e., the location on

the intended flight path where the trouble first began). The simplest

such distribution, and the one "recommended" by information theory(37,41-43)

concepts, is the exponential distribution:

f (x) =1/2 yexp (-y I x ) — I x 00 Q..3 3)j,k

The mean o'f theabsolute value of x is 1/y. Based on investigations of many(ls-4s)aircraft accidents and on previous studies, the best subjective esti-

mate of y is

yj=s

yj=3,4,5,7

yj=6

yj=l,2

-11 mile (MilitaryAircra ft)

-12 mile (U.S. General Aviation other than Aerial Application)

-11 mile (U.S. General Aviation-Aerial Application only)

-1l. 6 mile (U.S. Air Carrier) Rev. 1

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Plant

Intended Flight Path

AL

Figure A. 3-1: Straight Line Flight Path Near PVNQS

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APPENDIX A. 4

ESTIMATE OF THE AIRCRAFT CRASH PROBABILITYPER EFFECTIVE PLANT AREA

The probability per year that an aircraft will impact the PVNGS can be esti-

mated by summing the probabilities that an aircraft.

1. traveling from Luke AFB to Gila Bend Gunnery Range;

2. traveling along V-16;

3. traveling along V-94;

will impact the PVNGS.

A. 4-1 Estimate of the probability per year that an aircraft traveling

between Luke AFB and Gila Bend Gunner Ran e will im act

PVNGS.

There are no more than about N =160 flights each way per day, five days',k

per week or less than ¹ =84, 000 operations per year. They are militaryj,kflights (j=8). They are traveling in the inflight mode of operation while in

the vicinity of PVNGS (k=2).

The flight path (i=1) is approximately straight and passes.no closer than

14 miles ESE of PVNGS.

The effective plant area for PVNGS/F-104 Starfighter is less than or equal to

0.30 mi2 Rev. 1

The Class B crash probability per mile of flight for U. S. Military flights (or-8

non-combat missions) in the inflight mode is P (B) ~ 2 ~ 60 x 10 crashes.j=8, k=2

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A. 4-3 Estimate of the robabili er ear that an aircraft travellin

alon V-94 will im act PVNGS.

There are N < 100, 000 operations per year along V-94. Ther'e are approx-],k-imately 1/3 U. S. Air Carrier (j=2) and approximately 2/3 U. S. General

Aviation (k=3, 4, 5, 6, 7).

The. flight path is approximately straight and passes no closer than 20 mlles

southwest of the Site. The effective plant areas and Class B crash probabQities

are the same as in Section A.4-2.

Then:

P 3(B) ( I(1/3) (100, 000) (6. 2 x 10 ) (0. 20) (1/2) (1. 6) e

+ (2/3) (100, 000) (3. 2 x 10 ) (0. 05) (e ) orRev. 1

-11P (B) «'10 .Class B crashes per target area per year.tot i=3

-43-Revision 1 7/25/75

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APPENDIX B

GLOSSARY

B. l

AERIALAPPLICATION

Aerial application in agriculture consists of those activities that involvethe discharge of materials from aircraft in flight and a miscellaneous collectionof minor activities that do not require the distribution of any materials.

AIR CARRIER

The term "air carrier", as used in this report, refers to aircraft operators

certificated by the Federal Aviation Administration to transport by air, persons,

property, and mail.

AIR CARRIER OPERATIONS,

Revenue activities of the certificated route air carriers and the supplementalair carriers on scheduled and nonscheduled flights.

AIRCRAFT ACCIDENT

An aircraft accident incident to flight is an aircraft accident which occurs

between the time an engine or engines are started for the purpose of commencing

flight until the aircraft comes to rest with all engines stopped for complete

or partial deplaning or unloading. It excludes death or injuries to persons

on board which result from illness, altercations, and other incidents not

directly attributable to flight operations.

(a) Class A Accident (Total Accidents): 'lass A accidents include allaircraft accidents that involve injury or death to ground personnel

and population, crew, or passengers. It also includes all aircraftaccidents that involve any degree of property loss.

(b) Class B Accident (Major Accidents): Class B accidents are that

subset of Class A aircraft accidents that could cause the aircraft to

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(c)

crash or collide with any structure not at the airport. Class B

accidents may or may not involve human injury or mortality but do

involve property damage (including aircraft damage) not at the air-

port. Class B accident data is used in this study to estimate the

aircraft accident rate per mile. Most previous studies on the potential

impact of an aircraft into a nuclear power plant use the less con-

servative, (i. e., smaller), Class C accident data for this estimate.

Class C Accident (Fatal Accidents): Class C accidents are that sub-

set of Class A accident which cause- one or more human fatalities.

AIRCRAFT MILES or PLANE MILES

The miles (computed in airport-to-airport distances) for each inter-airport

hop actually completed, whether or not performed in accordance with the

scheduled pattern. For this purpose, operation to a flag stop is a hop com-

pleted even though a landing is not actually made.

AIRCRAFT TYPE

A term used in grouping aircraft by basic configuration —. fixed-wing, rotor-

craft, glider, dirigible and balloon; etc.

AIRMANCERTIFICATE

A document issued by the Administrator of Federal Aviation Administration-

certifying that he has found the holder to comply with the regulations governing

the capacity in which the certificate authorizes the holder to act as an airman

in connection with aircraft.

AIRPORT (AIRSTRIP, AIRFIELD, RUNWAY, LANDING STRIP)

An area of land or water that is used or intended to be used for the landing

and takeoff of aircraft, and includes its buildings and facilities, if any.

AIRPORT TRAFFIC

Aircraft operating in the 'air or on an airport surface exclusive of loading ramps

and parking areas.

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AIRPORT TRAFFIC CONTROL SERVICE'ir

traffic control service provided by an airport traffic.control tower for air-craft operating on the movement area and in the vicinity of an airport.

AIRPORT TRAFFIC CONTROL TOWER (TOWER)

A facility operated by FAA to promote the safe, orderly, and expeditious flow

of air traffic at the airport.

AIRPORT TYPE

General Use —Airports serving as regular, alternate, or provisional stops

for scheduled and large irregular air carriers; non-air-carrier airports offering

a minimum of services such as fuel and regular attendants during normal

working hours; and airports operating seasonally which qualify under above

definition.

Limited Use —Airports available to public but not equipped to offer minimum

services.

Restricted Use —Use by general public prohibited except in case of forced

landing or by previous arrangement.

AIR ROUTE TRAFFIC CONTROL CENTER (GENTER or ARTCC)

A facility established to provide air traffic control service to IFR flightsoperating within controlled airspace, principally during the enroute phase

of flight.

AIR TAXI

Any use of an aircraft by the holder of an Air Taxi Operating Certificate which

is authorized by that certificate.

AIR TRAFFIC

Aircraft in operation anywhere in the airspace and on that area of an airport

normally used for the movement of aircraft.

AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL

A service operated by appropriate authority to promote the safe, orderly, and

expeditious flow of air traffic.

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AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL FACILITY (FACILITY)

A facility providing air traffic control service.

AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL SERVICE (CONTROL)

A service provided for the purpose of promoting the safe, orderly, and ex-

peditious flow of air traffic, including airport, approach, and enroute air

traffic control services.

AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL SPECIALIST (CONTROLLER)

A duly authorized person providing air traffic control service.

AIRWORTHINESS CERTIFICATE

The issuance of this certificate by the Federal Aviation Administration signi-

fies that an aircraft conforms to the type design (except for the experimental

classification) and is in condition for safe operation.

BUSINESS TRANSPORTATION

Any use of an aircraft not for compensation or hire by an individual for the

purposes of transportation required by a business in which he is engaged.

CivilAeronautics Board

CERTIFICATED ROUTE AIR CARRIER

One of a class of air carriers holding certificates of public convenience and

necessity, issued by the CivilAeronautics Board. These carriers are authorized

to perform scheduled air transportation over specified routes and a limited

amount of nonscheduled operations.

CERTIFICATED ROUTE-MILES OPERATED

The shortest distance of travel, over authorized flight paths, by which all

operated points on a carrier!s operation could be served.

COACH SERVICE (A.IR)

Transport service established for the carriage of passengers at fares and

quality of service below that of first-class service, but higher than or

superior to the level of economy service.

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COMMERCIALOPERATOR

One of a class of air carriers operating on a private for-hire basis, as dis-tinguished from a public or common air carrier, holding a commercial operator

certificate, issued by the Administrator of the Federal Aviation Administration

(pursuant to part 4S of the CivilAir Regulations) authorizing it to operate air-

craft in air commerce for the transportation of goods or passengers. for com-

pensation or hire.

CONTROLLED AIRSPACE

Airspace within defined dimensions designated as continental control area,

control zone, or transition area within which air traffic control is exercised.

CS/T

Combined Station/Tower

DEFENSE VISUAL PLIGHT RULES (DVFR)-

Visual Flight Rules applicable to military aircraft which plan to penetrate or

to flywithin an Air Defense Identification Zone.

DOMESTIC OPERATIONS

In general, operations within the territory of the United States. These in-

clude domestic operations of the certificated trunk carriers and the local ser-

vice, helicopter, intra-Alaska, intra-Hawaii, and domestic all-cargo carriers.

Federal Aviation Administration

FAS

Flight Advisory Service

FEDERAL AIRWAY

A path through the navigable airspace of the United States, identified by an

area on the. surface of the earth, designated or approved by the FAA Adminis-

trator as suitable for interstate, overseas, or foreign commerce.

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FIXED-WINGAIRCRAFT

Aircraft having fixed wings to the airplane fuselage and outspread in flight,i. e., non-rotating wings.

FLIGHT CATEGORY

Flight categories are:

U. S. Certified Route and Afr Carriers

I. 1 U. S. Certified Route Carriers Only.

I. 2 U. S. Certified Air Carriers Only;

II. U. S. General Aviation

II. 1 U. S. General Aviation-Instructional Only.

II. 2 U. S. General Aviatio'n-Business/Corporate Only.

IL 3 U. S. General Aviation-Pleasure OnlyIL 4 U. S. General Aviation-Aerial Application Only.

II. 5 U. S. General Aviation-AirTaxi Only.

III. U. S. (non-combat) Military

FLIGHT MODES

The flight modes are

1. Takeoff

2. Inf light

3. Landing

FLIGHT SERVICE STATION (FSS)

A facility operated by the FAA to provide flight assistance service;

GENERAL AVIATIONOPERATIONS

All civil aircraft operations except those classified as air carriers (see alsoAircraft Operation).

GENERAL AVIATIONAIRCRAFT

All civil aircraft except those classified as air carriers.

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IFR

Instrument Flight Rules

IFR AIRCRAFT HANDLED

The number of IFR departures multiplied by two plus the number of IFR overs.This definition assumes that the number of departures (acceptances, extensions,and originations of IFR flight plans), is equal to the number of landings (IFRflight plans closed).

IFR CONDITIONS

Weather conditions .below the minimum prescribed for flight under VFR.

OPERATION

An aircraft flight consisting of takeoff from an airport, inflight, and landingat an airport. A round trip flight consists of two operations.

SORTY

A mission. A flight to a designated point or points and return to the point

of origin. A sorty may consist of two or more flight operations.

SUPPLEMENTAL AIR CARRIER

One of a class of air carrie'rs now holding temporary certificates of publicconvenience and necessity issued by the CivilAeronautics Board, authorizingthem to perform passenger and cargo charter services supplementing the

scheduled service of the certificated route air carriers. In addition, they canperform on a limited or temporary basis, as authorized by the CivilAeronauticsBoard, scheduled operations'ncluding the transportation of individually ticketedpassengers and individually waybilled cargo.

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*TOTAL PLIGHT SERVICES

The sum of flight plans originated, pilot briefs, and.flight condition messages,

multiplied by two, plus the number. of aircraft contacted. No credit is allowed

for airport advisories.

Visual Plight Rules

VPR CONDITIONS

Basic weather conditions prescribed for flight under VFR.

VPR PLIGHT

Flight conducted in accordance with Visual Flight Rules.

B. 2 SYMBOLS

A

Am

Ap

As

Effective plant areas equals the sum of the true plant area, shadowarea and skid area.

I

Skid area in front of plant.

True plant area.

Plant shadow area.

A Plant. virtual area fs the sum of the true plant area and the shadowv area.'I h

A (total): Total Effective Plant Area for all three reactor units.E

A (C ), A (C ), A (C ): Virtual area of containment building 41,(02, N3).v 1' 2' 3

A (F ) ~ A (F ), A (F ): Virtual area of fuel building gl, (N2, ~~3).v 1'(v 2' 3

A (R ), A (R ), A (Rh): Vi'itual area of radwaste building gl, ($2, g3).v 1' 2' 3

A (Cl) A (C2) A (C3): Skidareaassociated witha postulatedaircraftimpact with containment building 41, (N2 N3)

A (Fl) A (F2), A (F ): Skid area associated with a postulated aircraftimpact with fuel building 4"1 (42, 43) .

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A (R1) A (R2), A ~ (R ): Skid area associated with a postulated air-'1 m 2' 3 craft impact with radwaste building 51, (N2, g3)

One half the wing span of the aircraft postulated to impact.

D=2r Physical Diameter of building postulated to be'impacted.

Physical height of building postulated to be impacted.

Skid factor.

f (x) .The. crash distribution'unction orthonormal to the intended flightpath for an aircraft in the jth flight category and in the'th mode of

k

operation.

j,k

P

Probability per mile that an aircraft in the jth category and in thekth mode-of operation will crash.

Probability per year that an aircraft will crash at a designated targetwhile travelling along flight path i.

tot

Xm

The total probability per year that any aircraft, -in any mode of,operation and along any flight path, willcrash at a designatedtarget.

Maximum skid distance of an impacting aircraft.

Subscript pertaining to the 1th straight line flight path.

Subscript pertaining to the jth flight category.

Subscript pertaining to the kth mode of flight.

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REFERENCES

Telephone conversation on April 25, 1975 with Captain john B.Alexander, United States Air Force, Luke Air Force Base, Arizona

Telephone conversation on April 29, 1975 with Captain Mike Heenan,United States Air Force, Luke Air Force Base, Arizona.

Telephone conversation on April 29, 1975 with Ms. Bobbie j. English,Federal Aviation Administration, Washington, D. C.

Telephone conversations on May 5 and May 7, 1975, with Mr. GeneGarcia, Chief Air Traffic Controller, Albuquerque Flight Traffic Center.

Telephone conversation on April 25, 1975 with Mr., Tom Kamman,Regional Planning Officer, Sky Harbor Service Center, Phoenix,Arizona.

Telephone conversations on May 1 and May 2, 1975, withMr. L. LaFornara, Chief Planner, Western Region, FAA.

Telephone conversation on April 29, 1975 with %r. Robert Strander,Assistant City Manager of Buckeye, Arizona.

Telephone conversation on May 5, 1975 with Mr. Robert Strander,Assistant-City Manager of Buckeye, Arizona..

Telephone conversation on April 29, 1975 with Mr. j. Pierce, ownerof Pierce Airport, Arizona.

Telephone conversation on April 29, 1975 with Mr. George Hex,Manager, Phoenix-Litchfield Airport, Arizona.

Telephone conversation on April 29, 1975 with Major Robert Lake,United States Air Force, Williams AFB, Arizona,

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REFERENCES (cont'd)

12. Aeronautical Chart, 12th edition (effective to 19 June 1975),available from the U. S. Department of Commerce or most FlightControl Centers.

13. Enroute High Altitude Aeronautical Chart, 12th edition, (effectiveto 19 June 1975), Phoenix Section, available from the U. S. Depart-ment of Commerce or most Flight Control Centers.

14. Enroute Low Altitude Aeronautical Chart, 12th edition, (effective to19 June 1975), Phoenix Section, available from the U. S. Departmentof Commerce or most Flight Control Centers.

15.. "Summary of Aircraft Accidents within Five Miles of U. S; Navy andU. S. Marine Corps Airfields, " FY-1964-1968 prepared by the Air-craft Analysis Division, Naval Safety Center, Norfolk, Virginia,Project Study Group 68-13.

16. "Summary of U. S. Air Force Aircraft Accidents in the VicinityofAirfield 5 mile Zone, 1960-1964, " NR21-65, prepared by Directorateof Aerospace Safety Study, Norton Air Force Base.

17. "Militaryand Aircraft Forecast, Fiscal year 1975-1968, " preparedby U. S. Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration,September 1974.

18. "MilitaryAircraft Traffic ActivityReport, Calendar Year ) 973, " pre-pared by U. S. Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Ad-

ministrationn.

19. "MilitaryAircraft Activity Report for Calendar Year 1969, " U.S. Depart-ment of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration.

20. "MilitaryAir Traffic Activity Report, Calendar Year 1971," preparedby Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration.

21. "Aircraft Accident Report, Scandanavian Airlines System, McDonaldDouglas DC-8-62, LN-MOO in Santa Monica Bay near Los AngelesCalifornia, January 13, 1969, " Report NTSD-AAR-70-14; U. S. De-partment of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration.

22. "Aircraft Accident Report, Trans-Caribbean Airways, Inc., -Boeing727-200, N8790R, Harry S. Truman Airport, Charlotte Amelie, SaintThomas Virgin Islands, December 28, 1970, " Report NTSD-AAR-72-8U. S. Dep'artment of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration.

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REFERENCES (cont'd)

23. "Special Study Mid-AirCollisions 'in U. S. CivilAviation, 1969-1970,Report No. NTSD-AAS-72-6, " U. S.. Department of Transportation,Federal Aviation Administration.

24. "A Study of Air Carrier Accidents, 1964-1969, Report No. NTSD-AAS-7~2-5 " U. S. Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Adminis-tration.

25. "Annual Review of Aircraft Accident Data U. S. Air Carrier Operations,Calendar Year 1969, " Report No; ARC-71-1'. S. Department of-Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration.

26. "Annual Review of Aircraft Accident Data, U. S. General Aviation,Calendar Year 1971, ",'eport No. NTSD-ARG-74-2 U. S. Departmentof Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration.

27. "Annual Review of Aircraft Ac'cident Data U. S. Air Carrier Operations,1970-'1972," Report No.,NTSD-ARC-74-1 U.S. Depa'rtment of Trans-portation, Federal Aviation Administration.

28. "FAA Statistical Handbook of Aviation, 1970 Edition, " Stock Number5007-0166, U. S. Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Ad-ministration.

29. Eisenhut, Darrell, G., "A Review Testimony by the Division ofReactor Licensing, U. S. Atomic Energy Commission to the Long Is-land Lighting Company for the Shoreham Nuclear Power Plant Station, "

Unit 1, April 2, 1971.

30. Eisenhut, Darrell G., "Addendum to the Review.Testimony by theDivision of Reactor Licensing USAEC to Long Island Lighting Companyfor the Shoreham Nuclear Power Plant Station," Unit'1, May 3, 1971.

31 Cravero, M., Lucenet, G.,- "Evaluation of the Probability of AnAircraft Crash on a Nuclear Power Plant, " Departement Etudes 'et

Wssais Thermiques, 24, Boujevard de la Liberation, 93-Saint-Denis,France, Internal memo, April 1973.

32. "Probability of an Airplane Strike, " Appendix D and Appendix E,USAEC 5-Docket - 50-289, February 23, 1968.

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REFERENCES (cont'd)

33. Shoreham Nuclear Power Station, Amendment 3,.USAEC Docket,150-322, February 5, 1969, Long Island Lighting Company.

34. Eisenhut, Darrell G., "Reactor Siting in the Vicinityof Airfields, "

presented at the ANS 19th Annual Meeting, Chicago, Illinois,June 10-15, '1973.

35. "Zion Station Amendment, " USAEC 18-Docket — 50-295, December 1971.

36. Beattie, J. R., "Review of Hazards and Some Thoughts of SafetySiting, " BNES Symposium Safety and Siting, London, March 1969.

37. "Comparison of Dr. Cornell's final report on Naval Aircraft AccidentRisks at the Carty Site with PGE-2001, Evaluation of the Aircraft .

Hazards at the Boardman Nuclear Plant Site, " submitted upon re-quest by the Nuclear and Thermal Energy Council, by the PortlandGeneral .Electric Company, june 1973.

38.,Eisenhut, Darrell G., "Testimony to the Atomic Energy Commissionon the Zion-Waukeegan Airport Interraction. "

39.,Proctor, J., "Structural Effects of Aircraft Impact at the Zion NuclearPower Station, Unit 1 and Unit 2, " Docket Nos. 50-295, 50-304,July 31, 1972.

40. Hornyik, Karl., "Airplane Strike Probability Near a Flight Target, "

presented at the ANS 19th Annual Meetin, Chicago, Illinois,June 10-15, 1973.

41. Cornell, C.A., "Final Report to the Oregon Nuclear and ThermalEnergy Council on Naval Aircraft Accident Risks at the Carty Site, ".

May 31, 1973.

42. Hornyik, Karl., and Grund, J. E., "The Evaluation of the Air TrafficHazards at Nuclear Plants," Nuclear'echnolo Volume 23,July 1974.

43. Hornyik, Karl., Robinson, A. H., and Grund, J. E., "Evaluation ofAircraft Hazards at the Boardman Nuclear Plant Site, " PortlandGeneral Electric Report PGE-2001, May 1973.

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REFEREN CES'cont')

44 ~ Solomon, K.A., Erdmann, R.C.,'icks, T.E., Okrent, D., "AirplaneCrash Risks to Ground Population," UCLA-ENG-7424, March 1974.

45.

46.

Solomon, K.A., Okrent> D., "Airplane Crash Risks," Hazard Pre-1, . t

C

Buell, G.D., on the "Prediction and Optimality of Aircraft ManeuversAssociated with Approach and Landing, " UCLA-ENG-7126, June 1971.

47. Cravero, M., "Prise en Compte des Missiles Externes Lurs de laConception des Centrales Nucleares, " F 329/73/024 DepartementEtudes et Essais Thermiques, 24, Boulevard de la Liberation, 93 —Saint-Denis, France, May 1973.

48. Cravero, M., an'd Lucenet, Q., "Prise en Compte des MissilesExternes Lurs de la Conception des Centrales'Nucleares Evaluationdes Risques Engendres par le Trafic Aeriew," F 329/73/028,Departement Estudes et Essais Thermiques, 24, Boulevard de laLiberation, 93-Saint-Denis, France, May 1973.

49. "Airman's Information Manual, Department of Transportation, FederalAviation Administration," AIT-QEN-SAR-RAC-CLM1-AGA3,August, 1972.

50. U.S. Nucl'ear Regulatory Commission Standard Review Plan,Section 3.5.1.6 "Aircraft Hazards", June 1975.

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Rev. auly OF THAT AN,