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Return on Investment for Lobster (Homarus americanus) Enhancement
Initiatives in Atlantic Canada
ByMarcel LeBreton, Economist, EcoTec Consultants
Michel Comeau, Biologist, DFOMartin Mallet, Biologist, Homarus inc.
OutlineBioeconomic Model
Lobster Populatiom Dynamics ModuleSocio-Economic Module
Results Seeding
Results Artificial Reefs
Conclusions
III – Bioeconomic Model
Description of Model
Two modules:- Lobster Population Dynamics module
- 20 time periods per year- 1 to 300 mm max size
- Socio-Economic module
Provides biological (i.e., landings and egg production) and economic (i.e., revenues and employment) outputs
Flowchart of Bioeconomic Model
Revenues,Fishing Enterprises
Fishing EnterprisesSub-Module
Employment, GDPTax Revenues
Expenditures,Net Income
Fishing Enterprises
Landings
EggProduction
ManagementMeasures
LobsterPopulation
Natural Mortality
Sexual Maturity
Egg Extrusion
Larval Release
Molt and Growth
Fishery
Market and PricesSub-Module
Economic ImpactSub-Module
Fisheries ManagementSub-Module
LobsterPopulation
Natural Mortality
Sexual Maturity
Egg Extrusion
Larval Release
Molt and Growth
Fishery
Lobster Population Dynamics Module
Fishery
Natural Mortality
FEMALEMALE
Fishing Mortality 70%
Growth 16.2% Male15.2% Immature Female12.0% Mature Female
Larval Release July-August
Sexual Maturity Maturity Curve-logistic& Egg Extrusion 2-yr Reproductive Cycle
Fecundity Curve-exponential
Natural Mortality 5%
*Molting-induced Mortality 5%
Landings
EggProduction
Socio-Economic Module
Revenues,Fishing Enterprises
Fishing EnterprisesSub-Module
Employment, GDPTax Revenues
Expenditures,Net Income
Fishing Enterprises
Landings ManagementMeasures
Market and PricesSub-Module
Economic ImpactSub-Module
Fisheries ManagementSub-Module
Log-Log equations Landing Prices
Mgt Measures MLS 70 mm CLNo Berried FemaleLimits on Female Size250 trap limit/harvester
Profits = f(E,R) E; expendituresR; revenues from landings
Input-Output Core Econometric Blocks Non-linear dynamic model Energy Consumption
Uncertainty (Monte-Carlo)• Model for uncertainty in key variables • Beta– Exploitation Rate– Lobster Prices
• Gamma– Natural Mortality
Model Use
• ROI of various investments• Benefits of reducing number of traps per boat• Bio-economic impacts of changing MLS (CL)• Benefits of programs to reduce licences
IV – Results and Conclusion
STAGE IV SEEDING
Parameters
• Summer and spring fishery• Release of 100,000 Stage IV lobsters• Fishermen pay $0.25 per larvae:–Total investment is $25,000
• Total of 400,000 simulations
Landings and Revenues:Spring Fishery 10-year Horizon,
75 % Probability Interval
Statistics Minimum MaximumNumber Landed 34,400 46,700
Weight (kg) 13,700 18,800
Revenues $81,400 $179,400
Revenues, 75 % ProbabilityBoth Fisheries, 10 and 20-year
Scenario Minimum MaximumSpring - 10 $81,400 $179,400Summer - 10 $85,200 $187,700
Spring - 20 $87,200 $193,700Summer - 20 $88,000 $194,700
Internal Rate of Return
Scenario Minimum MaximumSpring - 10 10.7% 22.0%Summer - 10 13.5% 26.8%
Spring - 20 11.2% 22.4%Summer - 20 13.7% 26.9%
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Tax Revenues
ARTIFICIAL REEFS
Picture of Concrete Block
Artificial Reef Installed
Artificial Reef Installed
Artificial reef with 894 blocks : $25,000.
91 % occupancy rate
Both Spring and Summer fisheries.
Ten and 20-year horizons.
Total of 200,000 simulations.
Parameters
Reefs, Fishermen Revenues, 75 % Both Fisheries, 10 and 20-year
Scenario Minimum MaximumSpring - 10 $14,613 $29,227Summer - 10 $17,610 $35,220
Spring - 20 $43,215 $86,430Summer - 20 $47,151 $94,302
Reefs, Internal Rate of Return
Scenario IRRSpring - 10 -8.2%Summer - 10 -5.4%
Spring - 20 2.6%Summer - 20 4.1%
Reefs, Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Province N.B. 10 Years 20 YearsSpring Fishery $50 878 $112 081Summer Fishery $57 279 $120 502
Canada Spring Fishery $76 500 $166 883Summer Fishery $85 967 $179 336
Reefs, Tax Revenues
10 Years 20 YearsTotal Prov & FederalSpring Fishery $12 677 $28 465Summer Fishery $14 331 $30 664
Each seeded larvae (at a cost of $0.25), generates revenues of between:
- $0.81 - $1.95 for fishermen, - $1.86 - $2.98 for the economy (GDP)- $0.48 - $0.52 for governments (tax revenues).
Good governance, excellent rearing and seeding techniques and good survival rates result in a good return on investment for harvesters.
Conclusions: Seeding
At $27.95 per block: price too steep for lobster fishermen.
Each concrete block generates revenues of between (10y):- $16.35 - $39.40 for fishermen;- $56.91 - $64.07 for the economy (GDP);- $14.18 - $16.03 for governments (tax revenues).
Artificial reefs have a significant positive impact on: Lobster ecosystem (91 % vs 47 % occupancy);Economy as a whole;Government tax revenues
Conclusions: Reefs
Complete population model With 25 to 30 year class
Link with oceanographic model (currents)
Model for stocks assessments First with sGSL GSL, Other regions
Take more uncertainty into account Huge computing requirements
Bio-Economic Model: Next Steps
Marcel LeBreton, EconomistEcoTec Consultants
Quebec City, [email protected]
www.ecotec-consultants.com
Michel Comeau, BiologistDepartment of Fisheries and Oceans
Gulf Region, Moncton, New [email protected]
Martin Mallet, BiologistHomarus Inc.
Shediac, New [email protected]
www.homarus.org
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