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INTRODUCTIONRETROSCOPE 2019

DEAR READER,

THE END OF THE YEAR IS A TIME FOR CONTEMPLATION. IN THIS RETROSCOPE, WE LOOK BACK AND REFLECT ON THE IDEAS AND INSIGHTS WE HAVE PUBLISHED IN THE MACROSCOPE THROUGHOUT 2019. WE HAVE COVERED A WIDE RANGE OF EVENTS AND DEVELOPMENTS IN TECHNOLOGY, GLOBAL POLITICS AND SOCIETY. THE MACROSCOPE IS MARKED BY OUR TEAM’S DIVERSITY OF PERSPECTIVES, RANGING FROM PHILOSOPHY, ECONOMICS, HISTORY, SOCIOLOGY, POLITICAL SCIENCES TO ENGINEERING. COMBINING THIS INTERDISCIPLINARY APPROACH WITH SCENARIO THINKING, WE AIM TO ASSESS CURRENT AFFAIRS FROM A COMPREHENSIVE AND LONG-TERM PERSPECTIVE. OUR RETROSPECT OF 2019 IS THEREFORE ABOUT HOW THIS YEAR’S EVENTS TIE IN WITH OR DEVIATE FROM LARGER TRENDS IN TECHNOLOGICAL, HEGEMONIC OR SOCIO-CULTURAL CYCLES. OUR MISSION IS TO UNLOCK SOCIETY’S POTENTIAL BY DECODING THE FUTURE.

WE HOPE YOU ENJOY OUR REFLECTION!

FREEDOMLAB THINKTANK

05RETROSCOPE 2019

Photo by Drew Graham on unsplash.com

TECHNOLOGICAL CYCLE

1. Technological cycleUNEASE ABOUT BIG TECH MONOPOLIES CONTINUES TO GROW AND THE TECH WORLD IS HAVING A HARD TIME DUE TO ADVERSITIES SUCH AS DETERIORATING TRUST AND MARKET SATURATION. BUT, OVERALL, THIS DOESN’T SEEM TO HAVE HURT THE TECH GIANTS THAT MUCH, AND IN THE LAST QUARTER OF 2019, SEVERAL TECH STOCKS HIT ALL-TIME HIGHS AND REPORTED BETTER-THAN-EXPECTED REVENUES IN THEIR EARNINGS REPORT. HOWEVER, DEEP AND FUNDAMENTAL DEVELOPMENTS IN THE TECHNOLOGICAL DOMAIN ARE AFOOT, SUCH AS THE BUILDING OF COMPLEMENTARY ECOSYSTEMS, THE INCREASING USE OF AI AND DATA FOR THE COMMON GOOD, AND THE RISE OF UBIQUITOUS COMPUTING.

1. Updating the foundational layers of the stackWhen closely examining the trajectories within each layer of the stack, it is apparent that the foundational layers are in need of an update before we can enter the age of the sensor-based economy and ubiquitous computing. When it comes to our communication network, we find ourselves in the midst of the migration to 5g technology. However, this migration is facing some adversities, as exemplified by the health concerns surrounding 5g. In addition to demands for more bandwidth, lower latency and ubiquity, digital technology also faces some structural governance issues. Many issues we encounter today such as vendor lock-in, hacks or platform feudalism are related to its mainly centralized structure. Potential solutions can be found in decentralizing parts of the internet, which could help break monopolistic data silos and enable decentralized digital identities, governance and smart con-tracts and trustless payments. Combined with new forms of data pricing we could see the emergence of a trusted data exchange layer for the internet, where services, users, governments and industries can securely trade data, while respecting data ownership, privacy and economic interests. Conse-quently, we could see the rise of sustainable digital mega-ecosystems and truly powerful AI.

07RETROSCOPE 2019TECHNOLOGICAL CYCLE

As this trend will have considerable consequences for the strategic posi-tion of Big Tech, we can already see that some are already preparing them-selves for a decentralized future by incorporating or being able to interface with decentralized technologies. Even Facebook is showing signs that they are taking these developments seriously. However, in addition to self-regulation we also need policies that help combat deceptive design features in digital services.

2. The real world issues of AI While the added value and efficiencies of AI applications will make implemen-tation inevitable, there is a growing uncertainty to what extent the benefits outweigh the risks. It turns out that bias is not limited to humans and has re-surfaced in AI, while facial recognition evokes serious concerns over surveil-lance and possible misidentification. Increasingly, companies and industries developing intelligence upon this data are scrutinized on their ethical impli-cations. AI could also further magnify our current social instability, resulting in an increasingly vulnerable world. In response, companies such as Elon Musk’s Neuralink are building brain-computer interfaces and algorithms to be sure people are not left behind and humans will co-evolve with AI. Apart from all the potential risks that accompany AI, reality is also holding back the devel-opment of autonomous systems as exemplified by self-driving cars. Looking ahead, accountable, responsible and comprehensible cooperation between humans and machines seems fundamental for the further rollout of AI appli-cations, especially in domains such as healthcare and mobility.  

3. The stack is eating the world As a result of ubiquitous computing and our sensor embedded environment, the digital and psychical world have become even more intertwined. As a result, we see the advent of the design paradigm of the disappearing com-puter, raising new challenges for marketing and even ethics. However, this has also led to novel virtual practices, as virtual worlds are expanding quickly and non-gaming events such as live concerts have taken place in virtual worlds. It also works the other way around, as cities transform into potential AR gaming arenas and visual search applications can operate every physical object as a potential point of sales and gateway for a digital customer journey. From a media perspective, last year saw the start of the streaming war between traditional media companies such as Disney and new entrants such as Netflix and Amazon. As of yet, traditional (high-quality) content is the weapon of choice, but in the (near) future we are likely to see the more inno-vative forms of interactive elements, (e.g. Netflix’ Bandersnatch) and reviving dead actors like James Dean. In gaming, the post-console era is nigh as big tech is about to enter the industry with their own device-agnostic streaming platforms for games. These may be the first steps towards metaverses, digi-tal spaces in which we will be spending most of our spare time in the future. Yet, the question remains how these (and games for now) can be rendered profitable without the questionable business models of many of today’s

free-to-play games. A shake out is the likely result of this battle for our media and entertainment space, if only because too much fragmentation of content across multiple platforms would push viewers to return to illegal download-ing. Digital technology also shows its impact in the world of sports. Amateur athletes increasingly used self-tracking devices to upgrade their own train-ing practices and feel more like their pro idols. However, the introduction the VAR system in football has shown mixed results, as it demonstrates, once more, how more data (or footage) does not necessarily lead to better decision making. Similarly, the tragic case of Caster Semenya who was banned from women’s sports unless she medically suppresses her testosterone production, also shows that more data and new technology will bring unexpected, and arguably undesirable, practices. In that light, some high-profile cases of fraud in esports seem rather silly in comparison. These examples show that digital technology and physical reality are co-evolving, blurring the boundaries be-tween the physical and digital and creating virtual conditions for humans to come up with new ideas and realizing our dreams into digital dwelling places.

09RETROSCOPE 2019

Mural of President Xi Jinping Photo by Thierry Ehrmann on flickr..com

HEGEMONIC CYCLE

2. Hegemonic cycleWE HAVE FREQUENTLY REPORTED THAT WE ARE IN A PERIOD OF “HEGEMONIC SHIFT”, AS THE CURRENT HEGEMONY OF THE U.S. IS CHALLENGED BY THE RISE OF CHINA. IN 2019, WE SAW THIS HEGEMONIC CONFLICT INTENSIFYING, MOST OBVIOUSLY IN THE ESCALATING TRADE WAR BETWEEN THE U.S. AND CHINA, BUT ALSO IN REGIONAL POWER SHIFTS RESULTING FROM THIS GREAT POWER COMPETITION. FURTHERMORE, A NEW VECTOR OF HEGEMONIC BATTLE IS OPENING, IN WHICH COUNTRIES ARE TRYING TO ESTABLISH CYBER SOVEREIGNTY IN THE DIGITAL SPACE, AND SUPERPOWERS ARE BUILDING THEIR OWN STACKS.

1. On the planetary network, sovereignty trumps economy - for nowIn the past year, we have seen governments around the world taking measures to establish their sovereignty within the digital space. In some cases, these attempts to establish sovereignty take precedence over immediate economic concerns. An Indian Stack is emerging based on Indian principles of innova-tion and India is trying to develop its own data governance model to protect its emerging tech industries. Led by an ambitious new European Commission, Europe is also trying to infuse the Stack with European values. Russia is de-veloping a highly centralized Stack with an internet infrastructure that can disconnect from the rest of the world. An African Stack is also slowly emerg-ing, inspired by the rise of pan-Africanism and the new African trade area that is set to become the world’s largest, which will benefit emerging hubs such as Ethiopia. Meanwhile, cities are also trying to establish their sovereignty in the digital space. In all of these cases, attempts to establish sovereignty clash directly with immediate economic interests (e.g. India, Africa and Russia all having ties to both U.S. and Chinese tech firms). Looking ahead, as many countries will increasingly face challenges such as deglobalization, economic stagnation and depopulation, it remains to be seen whether they’ll be able to protect their sovereignty in the digital space without sacrificing too much economic opportunity by shutting out American and Chinese technology leaders. It is also likely that we will see different cul-tures ending up with different technological futures, while conflicts erupt over the overlapping of Stacks across political boundaries (e.g. TikTok being a po-tential vector of Chinese ideals).

011RETROSCOPE 2019HEGEMONIC CYCLE

2. Amid the heat of hegemonic conflict, China remains focused on the long term For China, the conflict with the U.S. has attracted by far the most attention in global media, but China has stayed focused on important long-term risks and opportunities. First, (Greater) China faces internal challenges. Although Western media have falsely painted a dilemma between violent intervention or losing control of Hong Kong, China has chosen to maintain the status quo by safeguarding the special status of Hong Kong. China has adopted a similar long-term-ori-ented strategy towards Taiwan, namely to pull the island into its orbit. Within mainland China, the Communist Party seems to have anticipated the need for greater political liberalization (e.g. based on new Chinese generations), as it’s experimenting with ways to put democracy into the hands of local officials. Second, China’s long-term global ambitions reach far beyond what has grabbed global headlines (e.g. resolving the U.S. conflict, Belt and Road Ini-tiative). We have also seen that Chinese finance is becoming an alternative to Western institutions, that China is investing in a new food strategy and could even become the global sustainability leader. Chinese digital platforms are becoming regional (if not, global) standards and China is pursuing a pragmat-ic relationship with the EU and eyeing key strategic assets for the future, such as Greenland.

3. Scenarios at the end of the fourth Hegemonic Cycle We have seen in 2019 that we are nearing the end of what we have called the fourth Hegemonic Cycle. This idea is based on the history of financial hegemons from the Italian city-states, the United Provinces and the United Kingdom to the United States. In particular, we have seen that three scenarios for the future world order are still possible: a new alliance that protects the current world order, an alternative Asian system, and a long period of conflict.

Power-shifts within the Western worldAs the EU takes on a global leadership role in areas from where the U.S. is pulling back, a new type of Western cooperation is taking shape, which could lead to a new type of Western alliance in the coming years, possibly more on EU terms. The U.S. is in a deep political transition whose next phase will focus on building a new economic order. Interestingly, the European Union is not only trying to conjure up a new type of global leadership (especially with the European Green Deal), but there are also important power-shifts within the EU: most importantly, France is regaining its leadership role, whereas Germa-ny desperately needs a new surge of innovation to prevent the country from falling behind. Meanwhile, Russia is quietly resurging and the crucial question is in what ways Russia will grow closer to which countries.

Asian alternatives. An alternative Asian system is emerging. Across the Indian Ocean, a new world system is emerging based on Asian principles of connectivity and multipo-larity. Within this world system, the emboldened Indian PM Modi is trying to

turn India into a superpower in the face of deep structural challenges, but the outlook for India remains positive in the long term. The system is also creat-ing new types of economic models (e.g. the massive boom of remittances that is already more important than foreign direct investment and foreign aid). However, there will also be a greater likelihood of conflict, as East Asia has become the center of global geopolitical competition.

30-year conflictHowever, based on the rise of mass protests, trade conflicts and hardened geopolitical strategies, which are fueled by destabilizing trends such as demo-graphic transitions, economic stagnation, deglobalization and depopulation, it is also possible that we’re headed for a highly volatile period that scholars of hegemony Giovanni Arrighi and Immanuel Wallerstein characterized as the 30-year conflicts that recur whenever financial hegemons lose their dominant position.

4. Looking back to “Three Events We Are Not Expecting in 2019” At the start of each year, we highlight a few events from our geopolitical forecasts that may surprise global media in the coming year. In 2019, we have seen that all three of our forecasts from the end of 2018 were accurate.First, the global backlash against China that seemed to be taking shape has indeed faded. China, despite concerns around Huawei’s 5G infrastructure, is maintaining a highly pragmatic relationship with India, is mostly successfully pursuing a pragmatic relationship with the EU and southern Europe is in-creasingly growing closer to China. Second, Arctic activity has indeed for the first time made global headlines. In August, President Trump made clear that the U.S. has important strategic interests in Greenland, which is becoming a coveted strategic asset, by tweet-ing that he wanted to buy the island. Afterwards, the U.S. announced that it would open a new consulate in Greenland. Third, president Widodo in Indonesia and president Modi in India won their reelections this year, boosting reformist optimism across Asia. Moreover, including the Philippines, successful democratic transitions characterized Asia’s biggest growth engines. Widodo’s second term indicates the newfound political stability of Indonesia and Modi’s attempt to turn India into a super-power runs parallel to the reemergence of the Indian Ocean world system based on Asian principles of connectivity and multi-polarity.

013RETROSCOPE 2019

Climate Strike - Image by Markus Spiske on unsplash.com

SOCIO-CULTURAL CYCLE

3. Socio-cultural cycleSOCIETIES IN THE WEST AND ELSEWHERE CONTINUED TO QUESTION THEIR LONG-HELD TRUISMS THIS YEAR. THIS IS TRUE FOR POLITICS, ON THE LEFT AND THE RIGHT, AS WELL AS FOR THE ECONOMY, IN WHICH SCHOLARS AND COMPANIES ARE LOOKING FOR ALTERNATIVES TO SHAREHOLDER CAPITALISM TO BETTER ADDRESS TODAY’S PROBLEMS OF INEQUALITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE. ON THE INDIVIDUAL LEVEL, MANY OF US ARE LOOKING FOR MEANING AND PURPOSE AND HOPE TO FIND THIS IN NEW FORMS OF SPIRITUALITY OR THE USE OF DIGITAL TECHNOLOGY.

1. At the End of History, our socio-economic models are in need of a transition According to the German 19th century philosopher Georg Wilhelm Hegel, history can be understood as the gradual realization and development of the idea of freedom that resulted in the liberal world order as we know it today. However, liberalism is increasingly under pressure because of various factors, such as the rise of an authoritarian China, extreme right- and left-wing populism in Western countries, a return of nationalism and a “backlash” against globalization. Indeed, it seems that we have reached the end of Fukuyama’s end of history, and new ideas on how to govern our societies and economies as well as new business models are emerging. For starters, companies are fundamentally rethinking their purpose and are drawing inspiration from the Rhine model of capitalism. Maximizing shareholder value cannot be their sole purpose anymore, as consumers and citizens are increasingly forcing them to change the way they do business. Driven by these worries about capitalism, stock markets are also rethinking their purpose, and are increasingly looking to the long term to make financial markets more anchored to the real economy. However, with artificial intelligence reaching mainstream adoption by companies and business, inequality as a result of the Fourth Industrial Revolution has become a major theme that is currently neglected by markets and governments alike, leading to a troubling rise in mass protests. It seems that economics is – again-

015RETROSCOPE 2019SOCIO-CULTURAL CYCLE

conceived of as the “dismal science”. In response, new courses are being taught to give our future leaders a taste of new “principles of economics”. This could lead to new ideas and fundamental tools for economic policymaking, such as the radical rethinking of monetary policy of the Modern Monetary Theory, a fringe economic theory that states that governments shouldn’t worry about debt, which is entering mainstream discussions. Another new theme is the calibration of our current fiscal taxation system to the challenges posed by digital disruption by, for example, the implementation of automation taxes. And new economists and sociologists are already pondering a future in which we will no longer need to work and are asking whether we could live without a job. As such, this paradigm shift in economics will eventually lead to new economic models, theories and thinkers.

2. In these uncertain times, we long for radical changeWe are living in uncertain times, as many abstract and immense changes (e.g. globalization, digitization, financialization, urbanization) are profoundly affect-ing our life world. Externally, they change the pace of our lives and the materi-al substrate to our societies and economies. However, many people are expe-riencing psychological difficulties dealing with the accelerating changes of our time. Secularization, nihilism and political disaffiliation mean many people no longer have a stable moral foundation and spiritual framework from which to organize and appraise their lives. This, in itself, leads to further discussions on societal and moral issues; indeed, we live in a time of moral outrage as more and more previous certainties are being challenged. Furthermore, high-er social mobility and the subsequent decay of traditional and communal life have led to a new phase of individualism. Thus, people are gaining freedom to develop their individual identity and autonomy over their desires, feelings and thoughts, which is considered a process of “liberation”. This starts at a young age, as childhood is changing and younger gen-erations are being raised with different values, ideals and beliefs. However, the quest for autonomy in the digital age is becoming all the more relevant, as digital technologies and surveillance capitalism undermine our idea of personal freedom, privacy and autonomy. In response, many people are be-coming convinced that Big Tech companies and internet platforms have a societal duty besides their business responsibilities; that the internet is in need of transition. However, it is not (yet) clear what should be done and how, although consensus is emerging that a “deep” political transition will be nec-essary, meaning that our political and societal assumptions and concepts will require a major overhaul, and that public policy will see radical changes in the coming years. The codification of public policy means that governments are already increasingly using software to develop and execute public policy, causing policy-making to look increasingly like coding. However, it is ques-tionable to what extent code can replace laws written in natural language and how we can codify norms and values. In our times of uncertainty, about the external world and our inner dimension, we will increasingly long for themes and leadership to provide a stable basis and imperatives for our daily lives.

3. Individuals are in search of transcendence One way for people to deal with the challenges brought by the end of end of history and psychological uncertainty is to find purpose in life by actively looking for transcendence. This often entails spiritual practices, such as mind-fulness, which promises a healthier, happier, well-rested life by helping us live more mindfully. Furthermore, many of these practices for the masses are being enabled by digital technology, such as meditation apps or brain-sensing technologies. However, this contemporary spirituality is all about the self, instead of the relationship between the subject and the objective world. Digital technology is also changing our relationship to nature. We’re trying to reconnect with our biological and most foundational constitution and digital technology can ac-tually help bring us closer to nature. Generally, this taking care of nature for the sake of nature provides us with a grand narrative that gives meaning and a moral compass to our daily lives. This is also reflected in the increased val-ue we place on physical health, as we learned from Zeroing in on 0.0% beers, or the consumption of psychedelic substances that provide high hopes for holiness. In all these practices, the so-called “bifurcation” of man and world, subject and objective world, is sought to be broken in our quest to overcome the isolated and alienated feeling of modern man. And digital technology can help us with that, with interfaces that allow for brain-to-brain interaction that enable networked identities and immediate information and experience ex-changes, for example, or augmented reality, which holds much social promise. This has led to new subcultures, which have their own cultural references and symbolism, in which communication occurs increasingly through images, vid-eos, emojis and which have developed their own online grammar. Furthermore, virtual experiences also open up entirely new ways of “be-ing” and interacting, resulting in more fluid identities, new ways for commu-nities with shared ideals and goals to join forces and new types of meaning-ful experiences that are not possible in real life. Similar to the 16th century discovery of the New World, we are setting foot in a New Virtual World: a vast space with extensive resources and new species and things to discover and explore. However, as we increasingly come to rely on the digital world, the on-tology of the digital world is becoming a new field of study that will enable us to anticipate and explore new possibilities in the digital realm, both for our-selves and to make the world a better place.

4. Sustainability risks: getting stuck between false hope and despair At the end of last year, we noted that climate fatalism would be a likely result of political inaction and the diminishing chances of humanity actually curb-ing climate change. Yet, the European Green Deal, China’s efforts to become a global climate leader, and the fact that businesses are finally starting to pay a meaningful price for carbon emissions do offer a gleam of hope (as would a Democratic U.S. president). Also, things are changing in sectors such as con-struction, packaging and fashion, in which new ways of thinking and new tra-ditions could reduce our environmental footprint. Businesses in general feel

Socio-cultural cycle

Societies in the West and elsewhere continued to question their long-held truisms this year. This is true for politics, on the left and the right, as well as for the economy, in which scholars and companies are looking for alternatives to shareholder capitalism to better address today’s problems of inequality and climate change. On the individual level, many of us are looking for meaning and purpose and hope to find this in new forms of spirituality or the use of digital technology.

At the End of History, our socio-economic models are in need of a transition

According to the German 19th century philosopher Georg Wilhelm Hegel, history can be understood as the gradual realization and development of the idea of freedom that resulted in the liberal world order as we know it today. However, liberalism is increasingly under pressure because of various factors, such as the rise of an authoritarian China, extreme right- and left-wing populism in Western countries, a return of nationalism and a “backlash” against globalization. Indeed, it seems that we have reached the end of Fukuyama’s end of history, and new ideas on how to govern our societies and economies as well as new business models are emerging. For starters, companies are fundamentally rethinking their purpose and are drawing inspiration from the Rhine model of capitalism. Maximiz-ing shareholder value cannot be their sole purpose anymore, as consumers and citizens are increasingly forcing them to change the way they do business. Driven by these worries about capitalism, stock markets are also re-thinking their purpose, and are increasingly looking to the long term to make financial markets more anchored to the real economy. However, with artificial intelligence reaching mainstream adoption by companies and business, inequality as a result of the Fourth Industrial Revolution has become a major theme that is currently neglected by markets and governments alike, leading to a troubling rise in mass protests. It seems that economics is – again- conceived of as the “dismal science”. In response, new courses are being taught to give our future leaders a taste of new “principles of economics”. This could lead to new ideas and fundamental tools for economic policymaking, such as the radical rethinking of monetary policy of the Modern Monetary Theory, a fringe economic theory that states that governments shouldn’t worry about debt, which is entering mainstream discussions. Another new theme is the calibration of our current fiscal taxation system to the challenges posed by digital disruption by, for example, the implementation of automation taxes. And new economists and sociologists are already pondering a future in which we will no longer need to work and are asking whether we could live without a job. As such, this paradigm shift in economics will eventually lead to new economic models, theories and thinkers.

Individuals are in search of transcendence

One way for people to deal with the challenges brought by the end of end of history and psychological uncertain-ty is to find purpose in life by actively looking for transcendence. This often entails spiritual practices, such as mind-fulness, which promises a healthier, happier, well-rested life by helping us live more mindfully. Furthermore, many of these practices for the masses are being enabled by digital technology, such as meditation apps or brain-sens-ing technologies. However, this contemporary spirituality is all about the self, instead of the relationship between the subject and the objective world. Digital technology is also changing our relationship to nature. We’re trying to reconnect with our biological and most foundational constitution and digital technology can actually help bring us closer to nature. Generally, this taking care of nature for the sake of nature provides us with a grand narrative that gives meaning and a moral compass to our daily lives. This is also reflected in the increased value we place on physical health, as we learned from Zeroing in on 0.0% beers, or the consumption of psychedelic substances that provide high hopes for holiness. In all these practices, the so-called “bifurcation” of man and world, subject and ob-jective world, is sought to be broken in our quest to overcome the isolated and alienated feeling of modern man. And digital technology can help us with that, with interfaces that allow for brain-to-brain interaction that enable networked identities and immediate information and experience exchanges, for example, or augmented reality, which holds much social promise. This has led to new subcultures, which have their own cultural references and symbolism, in which communication occurs increasingly through images, videos, emojis and which have devel-oped their own online grammar. Furthermore, virtual experiences also open up entirely new ways of “being” and interacting, resulting in more fluid identities, new ways for communities with shared ideals and goals to join forces and new types of meaningful experiences that are not possible in real life. Similar to the 16th century discovery of the New World, we are setting foot in a New Virtual World: a vast space with extensive resources and new species and things to discover and explore. However, as we increasingly come to rely on the digital world, the ontology of the digital world is becoming a new field of study that will enable us to anticipate and explore new possibilities in the digital realm, both for ourselves and to make the world a better place.

Sustainability risks: getting stuck between false hope and despair

At the end of last year, we noted that climate fatalism would be a likely result of political inaction and the diminish-ing chances of humanity actually curbing climate change. Yet, the European Green Deal, China’s efforts to become a global climate leader, and the fact that businesses are finally starting to pay a meaningful price for carbon emis-sions do offer a gleam of hope (as would a Democratic U.S. president). Also, things are changing in sectors such as construction, packaging and fashion, in which new ways of thinking and new traditions could reduce our environ-mental footprint. Businesses in general feel the need to behave more responsibly, and those who won’t or can’t, have an increasingly tough time explaining their inaction.

Still, climate change, and environmental sustainability in a broader sense, is obviously a major cause of political po-larization (with populists on both ends). Moreover, the climate debate also makes for a deep cultural rift between those who are very vocal about climate change and those who don’t seem to care so much, but act relatively sustainably by default. In the end, the key question remains whether better technology (e.g. solar power, geo-en-gineering, massive reforestation or other forms of carbon capture) or a wildcard such as global depopulation can solve the problem of climate change without us having to sacrifice much or whether we are facing fundamental limits to growth and have to change our way of life. This is also the case in the Dutch nitrogen crisis; while there may be some partial technological solutions, we might have to conclude that our current agricultural system is fundamentally unsustainable and that we have to switch to a new system of production that is more in line with ideas about deep ecology.

New generations set the tone in social and traditional media

We have always taken great interest in (supposed) generational characteristics and intergenerational dynamics as they are major determinants of politics and culture. From a media perspective, for instance, last year’s success of TikTok can be seen as a sign that Gen Z is taking over social media from its millennial predecessors for whom Face-book, Twitter and Snapchat were go-to platforms. In a broader sense, Gen Z, supposedly a sensitive and conserva-tive generation, is about to take center stage as it reaches adulthood and enters working life. Also, the next gener-ation, Alpha, is already in the making and these kids are raised on, and increasingly by, artificial intelligence as they are surrounded by digital assistants and increasingly smart toys and classrooms. As such, these kids may become the genuine “digital natives” who have extensive experience in making digital technology work for them (e.g. in vir-tual practices experienced in Fortnite). Yet, we should not forget that older generations have also spent quite a bit of time with digital technology and that they may have a much deeper of understanding of how the technology works “under the hood” and could actually teach their younger counterparts a thing or two about what technolo-gy can and cannot or should not do.

In the meantime, traditional media are still very relevant as they increasingly take a stance in debates on social values (e.g. DC’s Joker and other popular franchises) and reflect today’s Zeitgeist. The current golden age of horror, for instance, can be linked to the fact that we live in uncertain times and these movies help society reflect on issues related to technological change, racism or the collapse of modern civilization.

SOCIO-CULTURAL CYCLE

the need to behave more responsibly, and those who won’t or can’t, have an increasingly tough time explaining their inaction. Still, climate change, and environmental sustainability in a broader sense, is obviously a major cause of political polarization (with populists on both ends). Moreover, the climate debate also makes for a deep cultural rift be-tween those who are very vocal about climate change and those who don’t seem to care so much, but act relatively sustainably by default. In the end, the key question remains whether better technology (e.g. solar power, geo-engi-neering, massive reforestation or other forms of carbon capture) or a wildcard such as global depopulation can solve the problem of climate change without us having to sacrifice much or whether we are facing fundamental limits to growth and have to change our way of life. This is also the case in the Dutch nitrogen crisis; while there may be some partial technological solutions, we might have to conclude that our current agricultural system is fundamentally unsustainable and that we have to switch to a new system of production that is more in line with ideas about deep ecology.

5. New generations set the tone in social and traditional media We have always taken great interest in (supposed) generational characteristics and intergenerational dynamics as they are major determinants of politics and culture. From a media perspective, for instance, last year’s success of TikTok can be seen as a sign that Gen Z is taking over social media from its millennial predecessors for whom Facebook, Twitter and Snapchat were go-to platforms. In a broader sense, Gen Z, supposedly a sensitive and conservative generation, is about to take center stage as it reaches adulthood and enters working life. Also, the next generation, Alpha, is already in the making and these kids are raised on, and increasingly by, artificial intelligence as they are surrounded by digital assistants and increasingly smart toys and classrooms. As such, these kids may become the genuine “digital natives” who have ex-tensive experience in making digital technology work for them (e.g. in virtual practices experienced in Fortnite). Yet, we should not forget that older genera-tions have also spent quite a bit of time with digital technology and that they may have a much deeper of understanding of how the technology works “un-der the hood” and could actually teach their younger counterparts a thing or two about what technology can and cannot or should not do. In the meantime, traditional media are still very relevant as they increas-ingly take a stance in debates on social values (e.g. DC’s Joker and other pop-ular franchises) and reflect today’s Zeitgeist. The current golden age of horror, for instance, can be linked to the fact that we live in uncertain times and these movies help society reflect on issues related to technological change, racism or the collapse of modern civilization.

Photo by Daniel Lincoln on unsplash.com

019RETROSCOPE 2019DISRUPTION IN THE MAKING

4. Disruption in the makingIN 2019, WE HAVE WRITTEN ABOUT HOW FOUR DOMAINS OF OUR DAILY LIVES ARE BEING DISRUPTED BY DIGITAL TECHNOLOGY: MOBILITY, HEALTH(CARE), FOOD AND EDUCATION. IN ALL THESE CASES, DIGITAL TECHNOLOGY DOES NOT ONLY CHANGE THE COMPETITIVE FIELD AND RESHAPE VALUE CHAINS, IT ALSO CHANGES CONSUMER PREFERENCES AND CREATES NEW SOCIAL AND ETHICAL CHALLENGES. AS DIGITAL TECHNOLOGY, REGULATION, CONSUMER PRACTICES AND BUSINESS MODELS CO-SHAPE EACH OTHER, DISRUPTION IS A PROCESS CONTINUOUSLY IN THE MAKING.

1. Mobility & EnergyDespite all stories about new generations not caring about cars, very little is changing in our travel behavior. Youngsters have less money and study longer, but as soon as they earn a living and start a family, they display “adult travel behavior”, just like their parents. For now, we should not expect too much of technological change either. Even though chipmakers are getting ready to build a chauffeur-on-a-chip, it’s been a challenging year for self-driving cars and it will take many years before truly autonomous vehicles hit the road for real. Until that time, they will oper-ate in trials to collect data for training purposes and possibly, within limits, for last-mile solutions. Most of all, they will be learning about the difficult-to-pre-dict behavior of other, human, road users. Even if self-driving cars eventually come to work perfectly, it is still questionable whether we will welcome them wholeheartedly. For now, technology developers encounter quite a bit of resis-tance and even technology vandalism that reminds us of the Luddite protests in the early 19th century. On a different note, the push for electrification of road (and waterborne) transport continues, because of climate change and in response to growing awareness about the deadly impact of local air pollution. Next year, we will see a surge in the number of electric vehicles on the market, but demand remains highly dependent on local subsidies for consumers and ethical con-

cerns over natural resources (e.g. cobalt) could dampen enthusiasm about EVs. For this reason, and because battery technology will not progress fast enough, hydrogen as a fuel-of-the-future made quite a comeback last year.

2. Health We are in the midst of the transition to a more personalized, preventive and participatory healthcare system. Changing disease patterns and aging societ-ies demand a different organization of the system. Naturally, all eyes are on digital technology when it comes to enabling the transition, but, as we’ve fre-quently noted, digital technology is not a solution in itself. To illustrate, smart home care could relieve pressure and reduce unnecessary and costly hospital visits, but we expect socio-cultural dynamics, such as the coming generation of self-conscious and tech-savvy “elastic” elderly, to also play a big role in the sustainable management of aging societies. Furthermore, ubiquitous digital self-tracking practices empower citizens to take responsibility for their own health, keep patients better informed on their health and could thus help democratize the doctor-patient relationship. Unfortunately, the rise of self-tracking might also lead to coercive practices and exploitation of the more vulnerable groups of society and government policies could be perceived as patronizing. On an existential level, we don’t really know what the impact of the data-fication of life will be. The emergence of the quantified self might improve measurable health, the amateur athlete is starting to look like a pro and the widespread adoption of mindfulness apps might help us get rid of the self-destructive and easily distracted “ego”. At the same time, the lack of spir-itual legacy in mindfulness could increase self-centeredness or lead to alien-ation from our very own bodies. For these reasons, socio-cultural reflection on the role of technology in health care is indispensable. Clever algorithms are already able to outperform doctors on specific and limited tasks (e.g. diagnosing tiny lung cancers), but we don’t expect doctors will be replaced altogether. The decision-making pro-cess of doctors requires moral reflection, practical wisdom and they have an important “healing role”.

3. Food In 2019, food became a pressing geopolitical matter. We saw how the trade war between China and the U.S. disrupted food trade flows, how several con-flicts around the world caused food insecurity (e.g. in Venezuela, Yemen and Sudan), and how countries increasingly looked to secure their future demand (as shown by China’s investment in agriculture in over 100 countries). Unsustainable pressure on earth’s resources is further threatening food security. We are urged to look for ways to produce food in a climate-smart way: by adapting to climate change (e.g. saline farming, climate-resistant crops or regenerative farming practices) as well as reducing the ecological footprint of the food sector (e.g. fighting food waste or reducing food pack-aging). Drawing most attention this year were alternative protein products, as the plant-based protein transition is gaining speed in developed countries.

DISRUPTION IN THE MAKING

Yet, since middle classes are rising across the developing world, demand for animal protein is bound to increase, as is illustrated by the rising popularity of milk in China. Global obesity levels continued to rise in the past year and, in response, we are increasingly in search of more healthy lifestyles. What we eat is key to our health, attempts are emerging to biohack our diets and people have sought ways to link diet to our DNA. As more and more people are moving to cities worldwide, the question is who the next generation of farmers will be, especially on rising continents such as Africa, where the rural youth do not aspire to traditional farming and are rapidly moving to cities. The question is also how growing cities will be able to sustain themselves in the future and what role indoor farming will play in this challenge. Meanwhile, online food delivery in urban centers is dis-rupting the food chain by challenging the traditional middlemen and some-times even connecting consumers to farmers directly.

4, Education Like last year, traditional education systems are struggling to provide stu-dents with relevant qualifications for the rapidly changing labor landscape. Consequently, alternative and sometimes radical initiatives to educate future employees are on the rise and companies are increasingly hiring without demanding a conventional degree. Coding, for example, is becoming an im-portant skill for future generations to participate in our ever-digitizing world, but it has not found its way to general education yet. Nor has formal logic, even though it is central to all programming and would help future coders, irrespective of which coding language they eventually come to use. To fill that void, many online apps, programs and games that offer the possibility to mas-ter coding skills are gaining popularity. Meanwhile, EdTech promises to bring about a revolution in traditional as well as alternative education in terms of efficiency, affordability and accessibility. Until now, EdTech has primarily of-fered solutions in traditional subjects such as math, language and geography and not much in the way of the desired 21st century skills.