Rethinking the FutureRethinking the Future– – A series of four lectures – –

by Joseph A. Camilleri

Hosted by St Michael’s on Collins Melbourne

First

Lecture

Are we entering a new Cold War?

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The Great Transition

In theory, our world still rests on a system of national, sovereign sates.

In practice, it operates as

a web of cross-national or transnational flows.

Ours is a world in which

people, goods & services, capital, technology, arms, information, images, carbon emissions, virusesFLOW ACROSS BORDERS

at ever increasing scale, speed & intensity4

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Rising US Trade Deficit

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US Trade Balance in $ billion

1964: 6

1971: -1

1974 -4

1987: -154

2008: -698

2010: -485

2012: -540

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US Budget Deficits in $ billion

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US Net Investment Position (2012)

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Advanced Economies Annual GDP Growth

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Emerging Economies Annual GDP Growth

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G7 and E7 Economies 2011 and 2050

PwC Economics January 2013

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Expected Changes

China Overtake US as largest economy by 2017 in PPP terms & by 2027 in market exchange rate terms

India Become third ‘global economic giant’ by 2050

Brazil Move up to 4th place ahead of Japan by 2050

Russia Overtake Germany to become largest European economy before 2020 in PPP terms

Mexico & Indonesia Larger than UK & France by 2050

Turkey Larger than Italy by 2050.14

China’s RiseChinese Real GDP Growth: 1979-2013 (%)

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China’s RiseProjections for Chinese and U.S. GDP on a PPP Basis: 2000-2030 ($ trillions)

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China’s Rise

Chinese Real GDP Growth: 1979-2013 (%)

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China’s Rise

Annual FDI Flows to China: 1985-2013 ($ billions)

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China’s Rise

China’s Annual FDI Outflows: 2000-2013 ($ billions)

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China’s Rise

China’s Share of Global Merchandise Exports: 1990-2013 ($ billions)

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Russia under Putin

After  9/11 attacks Putin quickly supported US in  ”war on terror”

In 2003 Russia opposed UN invasion of Iraq

From then on he would consistently & openly criticise what he called US monopolistic dominance in global relations

In December 2007 Russia suspended its participation in the Treaty on Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE)

In 2008 Moscow used force to support independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia from Georgia

In January 2009 gas dispute with Ukraine  state-controlled Russian company Gazprom to halt its deliveries of natural gas to Ukraine

In 2010 Russia formed Eurasian Customs Union with former Soviet Republics, Kazakhstan and Belarus

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US Actions

Bombing of Serbia without UN Security Council approval (1999)

US withdrawal from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty (2002)

US invasion of Iraq in defiance of UN opposition (2003)

Overt support for the colour revolutions on Russia’s doorstep: Georgia: 2003; Ukraine: 2004; Kyrgyzstan: 2005

Western military intervention in Libya, which contrary to assurances brought about regime change (2011)

Magnitsky Act singling out Russia for human rights violations (2012)

Attempts to weaken Russia’s position in Syria (2011-)

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Nuclear Weapons

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Nuclear Weapons

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Nuclear WeaponsImmediate Effects

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Nuclear WeaponsLong Term Effects

THREAT TO FOOD SAFETY: Radioactive fallout could make large areas unsuitable for food production for a very long time.

DISPLACEMENT: Those living within 20 to 50 km radius from ground zero would seek to avoid risk of radiation and infrastructure collapse by abandoning the area.

ECONOMIC DISRUPTION:One nuclear explosion could destroy productive capacities, infrastructure and communication networks of an entire area, affect whole country & even whole region.

ENVIRONMENTAL COLLAPSE: One nuclear explosion widespread radioactive contamination, making food + water unusable.

Several nuclear explosions enough soot would rise to the atmosphere to cause large fall in temperatures with devastating impact for global production of staple crops (e.g. rice, maize) on which millions depend.

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Resources

Website

www.Josephcamilleri.org

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