RESULTS WINDENERGY trend:index€¦ · RESULTS WINDENERGY trend:index MOOD BAROMETER FOR THE ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE WIND INDUSTRY SPRING 2020. 2 2 Organisedby: In cooperationwith: INTRODUCTION

1

Organised by: In cooperation with:

RESULTS

WINDENERGY trend:indexMOOD BAROMETER FOR THE

ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE WIND INDUSTRY

SPRING 2020

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2


INTRODUCTIONOVERVIEW & PARTICIPATION

Representativeness was determined based on the following categories: Regional distribution, activities across the value chain, coverage of different

production areas, onshore and offshore segments, position of respondent. The distribution of response rates (based on IP addresses) across countries and

regions corresponds to the market volume of the respective country or region while accounting for the onshore and offshore segments. This ensures a high

level of representativeness. The only exception is China which, due to its relatively isolated market and low response rate, is proportionally

underrepresented compared to the rest of the Asia region. This statement relates to existing onshore and offshore capacities as well as the importance, or

market share, of the wind industry (turbines, towers, foundations, projects, development, etc.).

The fifth edition of the industry’s mood barometer once again enjoyed strong participation. The

proportion of fully answered questionnaires remains at a high level although one question was

added (addressing hydrogen). Representativeness therefore continues to be high.

Survey period Total respondents Surveys completedPercenta

ge

1st survey – Q2 2018 (16 March to 19 April 2018) 1,187 674 57%

2nd survey – Q4 2018 (25 September to 9 November 2018) 1,655 958 58%

3rd survey Q2 2019 (2 April to 13 May 2019) 1,254 817 65%

4th survey Q4 2019 (23 October to 30 November 2019) 1,026 712 70%

5th survey Q2 2020 (17 March to 29 April 2020) 1,156 782 68%

Total 6,278 3,943 63%

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INTRODUCTIONOBJECTIVES, METHOD, PARTICIPANTS (1 OF 2)

• The distribution of response rates (based on IP addresses) across countries and regions largely corresponds to the relevant market volume. This ensures a high level of representativeness. The only exception is China which, due to its relatively isolated market and low response rate, is proportionally underrepresented compared to the rest of the Asia region. This also applies to current onshore and offshore wind capacities as well as the importance, or market share, of the individual stages of the industry’s value chain (turbines, towers, foundations, projects, development, etc.).

• The survey includes all onshore and offshore regions globally. The pre-defined market regions were: Germany, Europe (including Germany), North America, Asia, and Rest of World (ROW), including Africa, Australia as well as Central & South America.

• In the following diagrams, Germany is represented separately; however, the results for all of Europe include Germany.

WindEnergy trend:index (WEtix) is a semi-annual survey first launched in 2018 by WindEnergy Hamburg, the leading global trade fair for onshore and offshore wind energy, in collaboration

with wind:research, the leading market research institute for the wind energy industry, to gauge the mood in the industry.

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INTRODUCTIONOBJECTIVES, METHOD, PARTICIPANTS (2 OF 2)

• As before, the respondents’ activities are primarily concentrated on the onshore segment, which delivered roughly three times as many responses as offshore. About 40% of respondents are active in both market segments, which is consistent with the distribution identified by recent research.

• Nearly half of responding companies engage in operation and maintenance business activities. Furthermore, around 40% participate in project development activities; more than one third are manufacturers, and about one fourth perform installation work. Main activities within manufacturing are mostly focused on making turbines, rotor blades and other components.

• Around 30% of respondents focus on the German market and the European market, respectively. About 15% of respondents are also active in the Asian and the North American markets.

• More than one third of respondents hold a managerial position, followed by respondents from sales, ‘other’, R&D and design as well as maintenance and service.

Furthermore, the distribution of the market participants’ activities and those of their respective

companies as reflected by the WindEnergy trend:index (WEtix) mood barometer is representative of the market structures.

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5


SUMMARYKEY INSIGHTS – COMPARISON OF 1ST, 2ND, 3RD, 4TH

AND 5TH SURVEYS

• The distribution of respondents across industry segments is similar to that of the autumn 2019 survey: 45% of

respondents are active in the onshore market segment, 15% in offshore, and 40% in both segments.

• The assessments of the current business environment for onshore wind energy in North America and Asia are stagnant

at a high level. There are some improvements to be reported for Europe and Germany: respondents are now giving

more positive assessments of the business climate in Europe, and opinions about the conditions for wind energy in

Germany are not as negative as before.

• The current business environment for offshore wind energy is judged differently region by region: while the conditions

in Asia continue to be seen in an increasingly positive light, the views about conditions in Europe are stagnant. Survey

results for Germany are returning to the positive side while North America is in decline but remains in the positive

range.

• The market situation for onshore wind energy in North America, Asia and RoW continues to receive positive

assessments, despite a marked decline of some metrics. The results for Europe are slightly in the negative range for the

first time, while the mood in Germany is slowly recovering but remains on the negative side overall.

• While expectations for the onshore wind industry in the next two years are gently trending in a positive direction for

Europe and North America, the future prospects for onshore wind energy in Asia and RoW are weakening without

leaving the positive range. In Germany the future of onshore wind energy is viewed much more positively than before

but remains on the negative side for the time being.

The fifth online survey, conducted in spring 2020, again saw a high response rate. All in all more

than 6,000 individuals have taken part, assessing the prospects of the global onshore and

offshore wind energy industry. The key findings are as follows:

6

6



AND 5TH SURVEYS

• The global market situation in the offshore wind segment has once again received positive assessments for Europe,

North America and Asia, but the trend is clearly pointing downwards. The metrics for RoW have dropped into the

negative range for the first time. Assessments in Germany are trending slightly upwards and are not as negative as

before.

• The trend in the North American, Asian and RoW offshore wind segments is on a slight decline but remains generally

positive. The markets in Europe are receiving positive marks for the coming two years in a trend that is gaining

momentum. The values for Germany are increasing vigorously into the positive range.

• While the current market situation for onshore wind energy in Germany continues to be viewed as negative, the

values are improving slightly, with the future prospects showing a strong increase, resulting in a more positive overall

picture. The current assessments for offshore wind energy are negative with a slight downward trend, but a strong

positive development is expected in two years.

• Today's onshore wind energy market situation for Europe is slightly down in the negative range whereas the future is

seen in a more positive light, with values trending upwards again. Assessments for offshore wind energy this year have

declined somewhat, but a positive development is anticipated in two years.

• While the current market situation for onshore wind energy in North America continuous to be viewed as positive,

values are trending strongly downwards, whereas the future prospects are seen more optimistically. The overall

picture remains positive with values slightly increasing. Current assessments for offshore wind energy remain positive

but are declining significantly. A positive development is expected in two years.

A slightly bleaker mood in the international wind energy market: while the general spirit remains

largely positive, the current results reveal declining values. In Germany both the current and the

long-term mood in the market have turned, making way for a bit more optimism.

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7



AND 5TH SURVEYS

• While the current market situation for onshore wind energy in Asia continuous to be viewed as positive, values are trending strongly downwards. Expectations for the future are generally positive, remaining at a level similar to the previous survey. The current assessments for offshore wind energy are declining slightly but remain positive; the general development is expected to continue at today's positive levels.

• The current market situation for onshore wind energy in ‘Rest of World’ countries continuous to receive positive marks but the results are trending slightly downwards. Expectations for the future remain clearly positive, if with slight losses. By contrast, the current assessments for offshore wind energy are slightly negative but a positive development is expected in two years.

Expectations for the coming years are significantly more optimistic: the market development is

receiving positive marks, in most cases trending upwards.

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AND 5TH SURVEYS

• As in the past years, respondents expect consolidation processes in the onshore and offshore segments to continue at high intensity with a slight weakening trend.

• Expectations regarding the optimisation potential driven by digitalisation remain nearly unchanged at a high level for both onshore and offshore wind energy.

• In terms of the saving potential of new technologies, the mood is again in the medium to high range, with the potential for offshore wind energy receiving better ratings than for onshore.

• More than half of respondents believe it is likely or very likely that the production of green hydrogen will play a key role for wind energy.

* Note:

Since the implementation, and in particular, the design of the spring 2020 survey occurred prior to the comprehensive restrictions and lockdown measures imposed in response to the coronavirus crisis, and since it was deemed important to avoid compromising the comparability of this survey with its predecessors while acknowledging the fact that the ‘corona’ effect is probably unique (even if it persists for a while), this WEtix purposely contains no questions specifically referring to the coronavirus. Depending on the development of the situation, this issue will be re-evaluated before the autumn survey.

In addition to the traditional catalogue of questions, the fifth online survey (Spring 2020) for the

first time included an additional question to address the hydrogen topic. Questions addressing

the corona crisis where purposely avoided.*

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OVERVIEW OF COUNTRIES STUDIED

The survey covers all onshore and offshore wind energy regions globally. The pre-defined

market regions included: Germany, Europe (including Germany), North America, Asia and Rest

of World (RoW), including Africa, Australia as well as Central and South America.

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MARKET SEGMENTS

The survey respondents’ activities primarily centre on the onshore segment, which delivered

roughly three times as many responses as offshore. About 40% of respondents are active in both

market segments.

38,8% 42,7%48,1% 50,7%

44,8%

18,1%17,1%

14,8% 12,9%14,9%

43,1% 40,2% 37,1% 36,4% 40,3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Q2/18 Q4/18 Q2/19 Q4/19 Q2/20

In which segment of the wind industry is your company’s focus?

Onshore Offshore Both/Don´t know

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ASSESSMENT OF THE BUSINESS

ENVIRONMENT FOR ONSHORE WIND

The assessments of the current business environment for onshore wind energy in North America

and Asia are stagnant at a high level. There are some improvements to be reported for Europe

and Germany: respondents are now giving more positive assessments of the business climate in

Europe, and opinions about the conditions for wind energy in Germany are not as negative as

before.

-0,06

0,21

0,04

0,370,27

-0,25

0,20,12

0,43

0,26

-0,42

0,230,29

0,73

0,57

-0,91

0,01

0,28

0,71

0,49

-0,7

0,11

0,29

0,71

0,51

Germany Europe (incl. GER) North America Asia Rest of the world

Ind

ex

How do you assess the current development of the framework conditions for onshore wind energy

(overall: legal, political and social)?

Q2/18 Q4/18 Q2/19 Q4/19 Q2/20

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ASSESSMENT OF THE BUSINESS

ENVIRONMENT FOR OFFSHORE WIND

The current business environment for offshore wind energy is judged differently depending on the

region: while the conditions in Asia continue to be seen in an increasingly positive light, the views

about conditions in Europe are stagnant. Survey results for Germany are returning to the positive side

while North America is in decline but remains in the positive range.

0,24

0,47

0,08

0,39

0

0,2

0,51

0,24

0,51

0,040,04

0,53

0,37

0,74

0,27

-0,09

0,50,42

0,77

0,050,04

0,52

0,3

0,8

0,1


Ind

ex

How do you assess the current development of the framework conditions for offshore wind energy

(overall: legal, political and social)?

Q2/18 Q4/18 Q2/19 Q4/19 Q2/20

13

13


ASSESSMENT OF THE GLOBAL ONSHORE

WIND MARKET – CURRENT

The market situation for onshore wind energy in North America, Asia and RoW continues to

receive positive assessments, despite a marked decline of some metrics. The results for Europe

are slightly in the negative range for the first time, while the mood in Germany is slowly

recovering but remains on the negative side overall.

-0,06

0,180,11

0,350,27

-0,06

0,25 0,22

0,41

0,29

-0,26

0,28

0,39

0,74

0,58

-0,99

0,01

0,4

0,620,53

-0,72

-0,08

0,2

0,31

0,51


Ind

ex

How do you assess the global market for the onshore wind industry in the current year?

Q2/18 Q4/18 Q2/19 Q4/19 Q2/20

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WIND MARKET – NEXT TWO YEARS

While expectations for the onshore wind industry in the next two years are gently trending in a

positive direction for Europe and North America, the future prospects for onshore wind energy

in Asia and RoW are weakening, without leaving the positive range. In Germany the future of

onshore wind energy is viewed much more positively than before but remains on the negative

side for the time being.

0,18

0,37

0,22

0,520,45

0,11

0,37

0,26

0,5

0,37

0,06

0,45

0,57

0,840,75

-0,45

0,24

0,44

0,77 0,74

-0,05

0,39

0,5

0,730,66


Ind

ex

How do you assess the global market for the onshore wind industry in two years?

Q2/18 Q4/18 Q2/19 Q4/19 Q2/20

15

15



WIND MARKET – CURRENT

The global market situation in the offshore wind segment has once again received positive

assessments for Europe, North America and Asia, but the trend is clearly pointing downwards.

The metrics for RoW have dropped into the negative range for the first time. Assessments in

Germany are trending slightly upwards and are not as negative as before.

0,28

0,47

0,13

0,42

0,04

0,23

0,49

0,23

0,49

0,080,11

0,52

0,37

0,71

0,3

-0,2

0,45 0,43

0,77

0,1

-0,14

0,33

0,16

0,64

-0,03


Ind

ex

How do you assess the global market for the offshore wind industry in the current year?

Q2/18 Q4/18 Q2/19 Q4/19 Q2/20

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ASSESSMENT OF THE GLOBAL OFFSHORE

WIND MARKET – NEXT TWO YEARS

The trend in the North American, Asian and RoW offshore wind segment is on a slight decline

but remains generally positive. Similarly, markets in Europe are receiving positive marks for the

coming two years in a trend that is gaining momentum. The values for Germany are increasing

vigorously into the positive range.

0,37

0,59

0,3

0,59

0,180,28

0,54

0,38

0,6

0,210,29

0,680,58

0,86

0,46

0,04

0,58

0,7

0,9

0,350,27

0,650,6

0,87

0,34


Ind

ex

How do you assess the global market for the offshore wind industry in two years?

Q2/18 Q4/18 Q2/19 Q4/19 Q2/20

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17


ASSESSMENT OF THE ONSHORE AND

OFFSHORE WIND MARKET IN GERMANYCOMPARISON CURRENT VS. IN TWO YEARS

While the current market situation for onshore wind energy in Germany continues to be viewed as

negative, the values are improving slightly, with the future prospects showing a strong increase,

resulting in a more positive overall picture. The current assessments for offshore wind energy are

negative with a slight downward trend, but a strong positive development is expected in two years.

-0,06

0,180,28

0,37

-0,06

0,11

0,230,28

-0,26

0,060,11

0,29

-0,99

-0,45

-0,2

-0,04

-0,72

-0,05-0,14

0,27

Onshore

current year

Onshore

in tow years

Offshore

current year

Offshore

in two years

Ind

ex

How do you assess the market for the wind industry in Germany in the current year and in two years?

Q2/18 Q4/18 Q2/19 Q4/19 Q2/20

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18



OFFSHORE WIND MARKET IN EUROPE (INCL. D)COMPARISON CURRENT VS. IN TWO YEARS

Today's onshore wind energy market situation for Europe is slightly down in the negative range

whereas the future is seen in a more positive light, with values trending upwards again.

Assessments for offshore wind energy this year have declined somewhat, but a positive

development is anticipated in two years.

0,18

0,370,47

0,59

0,25

0,37

0,490,54

0,28

0,450,52

0,68

0,01

0,24

0,45

0,58

-0,08

0,390,33

0,65

Onshore

current year

Onshore

in tow years

Offshore

current year

Offshore

in two years

Ind

ex

How do you assess the market for the wind industry in Europe (incl. GER) in the current year and in two

years?

Q2/18 Q4/18 Q2/19 Q4/19 Q2/20

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OFFSHORE WIND MARKET IN NORTH AMERICA COMPARISON CURRENT VS. IN TWO YEARS

While the current market situation for onshore wind energy in North America continuous to be

viewed as positive, values are trending strongly downwards, whereas the future prospects are

seen more optimistically. The overall picture remains positive with values slightly increasing.

Current assessments for offshore wind energy remain positive but are declining significantly. A

positive development is expected in two years.

0,110,22

0,13

0,30,22 0,26 0,23

0,380,39

0,57

0,37

0,58

0,4 0,44 0,43

0,7

0,2

0,5

0,16

0,6

Onshore

current year

Onshore

in tow years

Offshore

current year

Offshore

in two years

Ind

ex

How do you assess the market for the wind industry in North America in the current year and in two

years?

Q2/18 Q4/18 Q2/19 Q4/19 Q2/20

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20



OFFSHORE WIND MARKET IN ASIACOMPARISON CURRENT VS. IN TWO YEARS

While the current market situation for onshore wind energy in Asia continuous to be viewed as positive, values are trending strongly downwards. Expectations for the future are generally positive, remaining at a level similar to the previous survey. The current assessments for offshore wind energy are declining slightly but remain positive; the general development is expected to continue at today's positive levels.

0,35

0,520,42

0,59

0,410,5 0,49

0,6

0,740,84

0,71

0,86

0,62

0,77 0,77

0,9

0,31

0,730,64

0,87

Onshore

current year

Onshore

in tow years

Offshore

current year

Offshore

in two years

Ind

ex

How do you assess the market for the wind industry in Asia in the current year and in two years?

Q2/18 Q4/18 Q2/19 Q4/19 Q2/20

21

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OFFSHORE WIND MARKET IN ROW COUNTRIESCOMPARISON CURRENT VS. IN TWO YEARS

The current market situation for onshore wind energy in ‘Rest of World’ countries continuous to receive

positive marks but the results are trending slightly downwards. Expectations for the future remain

clearly positive, if with slight losses. By contrast, the current assessments for offshore wind energy are

slightly negative but a positive development is expected in two years.

0,27

0,45

0,04

0,180,29

0,37

0,08

0,21

0,58

0,75

0,3

0,460,53

0,74

0,1

0,35

0,51

0,66

-0,03

0,34

Onshore

current year

Onshore

in tow years

Offshore

current year

Offshore

in two years

Ind

ex

How do you assess the market for the wind industry in the rest of the world in the current year and in

two years?

Q2/18 Q4/18 Q2/19 Q4/19 Q2/20

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22


INTENSITY OF CONSOLIDATION PROCESSES

As in the past years, respondents expect consolidation processes in the onshore segment to

continue at high intensity with a slight weakening trend. In the offshore segment, however, the

intensity of consolidation processes is clearly believed to be declining, returning to a level

similar to 2018.

0,30,360,36 0,34

0,39 0,380,370,43

0,35 0,32

Onshore Offshore

Ind

ex

In your opinion, what intensity will consolidation processes have in 2020/2021 (e.g. due to zero bids,

lower political goals, lack of projects)?

Q2/18 Q4/18 Q2/19 Q4/19 Q2/20

23

23


OPTIMISATION THROUGH DIGITALISATION

Expectations regarding the optimisation potential driven by digitalisation have risen at equal

rates for the onshore and offshore wind energy segments, with offshore continuing to play a

much more significant role for digitalisation than onshore.

0,6 0,620,62 0,620,67

0,8

0,56

0,680,63

0,75

Onshore Offshore

Ind

ex

How do you assess further optimization potentials through digitalization (e.g. automation of wind farms,

sector coupling, smart grids)?

Q2/18 Q4/18 Q2/19 Q4/19 Q2/20

24

24


COST REDUCTION THROUGH NEW

TECHNOLOGIES

The mood regarding the saving potential of new technologies is again in the medium to high

range, with the potential for offshore wind energy continuing to receive much higher ratings

than for onshore.

0,46

0,75

0,38

0,73

0,42

0,86

0,35

0,77

0,39

0,81

Onshore Offshore

Ind

ex

How do you assess further cost efficiency potentials through technology (e.g. bigger turbines, floating)?

Q2/18 Q4/18 Q2/19 Q4/19 Q2/20

25

25


GREEN HYDROGEN

More than half of respondents believe it is likely or very likely that the production of green

hydrogen will play a key role for wind energy over the next three years.

Very low

9,2%

Low

20,9%

Medium

15,5%

High

35,3%

Very high

19,1%

How high do you estimate the probability that the production of green hydrogen will play a major role

for wind energy in the next 3 years?

26

26


11,2%

18,1%

23,3%

29,9%

36,4%

39,2%

45,6%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Financing and insurance

Energy supply / grid operation

Installation

Others

Production

Project development

Operation and maintenance

On which level of the value chain is your company’s activity

in the wind energy industry? (Multiple answers possible)

14,7%

15,0%

24,8%

33,9%

38,5%

48,3%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Substations

Foundations / transition pieces (TPs)

Towers

Blades

Turbines

Others

Breakdown of answer "Production"

ACTIVITIES WITHIN THE VALUE CHAIN

Nearly half of responding companies engage in operation and maintenance business activities.

Furthermore, around 40% participate in project development; more than one third are manufacturers,

and about one fourth perform installation work. Activities within manufacturing are mostly focused on

making turbines, rotor blades and other components.

27

27


REGIONAL FOCUS

Around 30% of respondents focus on the German or the European market, respectively. About

15% of respondents are also active in the Asian and the North American markets.

67,6% 67,3% 33,7% 33,1% 24,4%

69,1%

85,0%

32,8%34,9%

28,0%

0,0%

25,0%

50,0%

75,0%

100,0%

Deutschland Europa (inkl. D) Nordamerika Asien Rest der Welt

On which countries is your company’s focus? (Multiple answers possible)

Average of prior results

28

28


RESPONDENT POSITIONS

Similar to the previous surveys, more than one third of participants hold managerial positions,

followed by respondents from sales, ‘other’, R&D and design as well as maintenance and

service functions.

0,0%

1,6%

1,7%

2,2%

2,5%

2,9%

3,0%

6,2%

11,2%

16,5%

17,3%

34,7%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

Marketing, advertising, PR

Information and communication technology

Human resources, administration

Buying, procurement

Logistics, material management, storage, transport

Manufacturing, production, quality control

Finance, accounting, controlling

Maintenance, repairs

Research and development, design

Others

Sales

Management

What is your area of responsibility?

29

29


WETIX – WINDENERGY trend:index

We look forward to seeing you at

WindEnergy Hamburg – The global on & offshore expo

http://www.windenergyhamburg.com

1 – 4 December 2020 | Hamburg

30

30


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Documents

RESULTS WINDENERGY trend:index€¦ · RESULTS WINDENERGY trend:index MOOD BAROMETER FOR THE ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE WIND INDUSTRY SPRING 2020. 2 2 Organisedby: In cooperationwith: INTRODUCTION