13
RESULTS REVIEW 3QFY19 19 JAN 2019 Wipro NEUTRAL HDFC securities Institutional Research is also available on Bloomberg HSLB <GO>& Thomson Reuters Bumpy ride ahead Wipro delivered better than expected margins but revenue growth and guidance was muted. USD revenue was up 0.3% QoQ vs est. of +0.9% while adjusted IT services adjusted EBIT margin expanded 120 bps QoQ to 19.8% (vs est. of 18.1%). Revenue stood at USD 2,047mn and adjusting for India business growth was +1.8/2.4% QoQ/CC. Guidance of 0-2% CC growth for 4Q was lower than expectation. Muted guidance was given on account of macro concerns and growth issues in HPS and manufacturing. Wipro’s growth (ex-Digital) remains challenged (-2.4/-9.5% QoQ/YoY). Wipro’s focus on Digital (33.2% of rev, +6.0% QoQ) and strong growth in BFSI (31% of rev, +5.3% CC QoQ) is driving growth. ENU (13% of rev, +4.6% CC QoQ) growth can be under risk led by volatility in crude prices. Margin recovery has been robust (+260bps YoY) led by operational efficiency and lower G&A but further expansion is difficult. Wipro’s USD revenue growth CAGR of 4.2% for FY18-21E is the lowest in the Tier-1 IT pack. We expect USD revenue growth of 1.6/5.4% and IT services EBIT% at 18.3/18.5% for FY19/20E. The stock currently trades at a P/E of 17.9/16.2x FY19/20E EPS (~2% premium to Tier-1 average). The 6M outperformance (+22% vs 2% for Nifty IT) is based on margin expansion, expected buyback and bonus issue of 1:3. Further re-rating seems difficult based on near term growth challenges, we maintain our NEUTRAL rating with a TP of Rs 330 based on 14x Dec-20E earnings. Highlights of the quarter BFSI/Consumer/Comm grew 4.8/1.2/1.8% QoQ. ENU grew 3.4% QoQ but fall in crude is a concern. Healthcare was up 2.6% QoQ but 4Q will be weak led by HPS. Top 5 clients grew 8.5% QoQ (+4.6% CQGR) and Wipro added one client in the USD 100mn bucket. Con-call takeaways: (1) HealthPlan Services (HPS) open enrolment booking were down 10% YoY, (2) Digital deal pipeline is witnessing strong traction in BFSI & Retail (3) ~130K employees digitally trained and higher localisation in US ~63% (4) India business will face volatality. Near-term outlook: Revenue growth will be muted led by portfolio challenges, margin expansion is difficult from 3Q levels. Buyback is expected in 4Q which can be sentimentally positive for the stock. Financial Summary (Consolidated) YE March (Rs bn) 3QFY19 3QFY18 YoY (%) 2QFY19 QoQ (%) FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E Net Sales 150.60 136.69 10.2 145.41 3.6 550.40 544.87 588.02 635.88 671.06 EBIT 27.76 19.65 41.3 19.40 43.1 86.02 82.81 95.16 113.73 119.93 APAT 25.10 21.86 14.8 22.89 9.6 80.81 82.57 92.49 102.16 107.27 Diluted EPS (Rs) 5.6 4.8 14.8 5.1 9.6 17.9 18.3 20.5 22.6 23.8 P/E (x) 19.4 19.0 16.9 15.3 14.6 EV / EBITDA (x) 12.5 13.5 11.8 9.6 8.6 RoE (%) 16.4 16.5 18.1 17.8 16.7 Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research INDUSTRY IT CMP (as on 18 Jan 2019) Rs 346 Target Price Rs 330 Nifty 10,907 Sensex 36,387 KEY STOCK DATA Bloomberg WPRO IN No. of Shares (mn) 4,525 MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 1,566/22,021 6m avg traded value (Rs mn) 1,464 STOCK PERFORMANCE (%) 52 Week high / low Rs 348 / 254 3M 6M 12M Absolute (%) 7.1 21.5 6.4 Relative (%) 2.5 21.5 3.2 SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%) Promoters 74.30 FIs & Local MFs 6.77 FPIs 8.45 Public & Others 10.48 Source : BSE Amit Chandra [email protected] +91-22-6171-7345 Apurva Prasad [email protected] +91-22-6171-7327 Akshay Ramnani [email protected] +91-22-6171-7334

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Page 1: RESULTS REVIEW 3QFY19 19 JAN 2019 Wipro - 3QFY19... · Wipro delivered better than expected margins but revenue growth and guidance was muted. USD revenue was up 0.3% QoQ vs est

RESULTS REVIEW 3QFY19 19 JAN 2019

Wipro

NEUTRAL

HDFC securities Institutional Research is also available on Bloomberg HSLB <GO>& Thomson Reuters

Bumpy ride aheadWipro delivered better than expected margins but revenue growth and guidance was muted. USD revenue was up 0.3% QoQ vs est. of +0.9% while adjusted IT services adjusted EBIT margin expanded 120 bps QoQ to 19.8% (vs est. of 18.1%). Revenue stood at USD 2,047mn and adjusting for India business growth was +1.8/2.4% QoQ/CC. Guidance of 0-2% CC growth for 4Q was lower than expectation. Muted guidance was given on account of macro concerns and growth issues in HPS and manufacturing. Wipro’s growth (ex-Digital) remains challenged (-2.4/-9.5% QoQ/YoY).

Wipro’s focus on Digital (33.2% of rev, +6.0% QoQ) and strong growth in BFSI (31% of rev, +5.3% CC QoQ) is driving growth. ENU (13% of rev, +4.6% CC QoQ) growth can be under risk led by volatility in crude prices. Margin recovery has been robust (+260bps YoY) led by operational efficiency and lower G&A but further expansion is difficult. Wipro’s USD revenue growth CAGR of 4.2% for FY18-21E is the lowest in the Tier-1 IT pack. We expect USD revenue growth of 1.6/5.4% and IT services EBIT% at 18.3/18.5% for FY19/20E. The stock currently trades at a P/E of 17.9/16.2x FY19/20E EPS (~2% premium to Tier-1

average). The 6M outperformance (+22% vs 2% for Nifty IT) is based on margin expansion, expected buyback and bonus issue of 1:3. Further re-rating seems difficult based on near term growth challenges, we maintain our NEUTRAL rating with a TP of Rs 330 based on 14x Dec-20E earnings.

Highlights of the quarter

BFSI/Consumer/Comm grew 4.8/1.2/1.8% QoQ. ENU grew 3.4% QoQ but fall in crude is a concern. Healthcare was up 2.6% QoQ but 4Q will be weak led by HPS. Top 5 clients grew 8.5% QoQ (+4.6% CQGR) and Wipro added one client in the USD 100mn bucket.

Con-call takeaways: (1) HealthPlan Services (HPS) open enrolment booking were down 10% YoY, (2) Digital deal pipeline is witnessing strong traction in BFSI & Retail (3) ~130K employees digitally trained and higher localisation in US ~63% (4) India business will face volatality.

Near-term outlook: Revenue growth will be muted led by portfolio challenges, margin expansion is difficult from 3Q levels. Buyback is expected in 4Q which can be sentimentally positive for the stock.

Financial Summary (Consolidated) YE March (Rs bn) 3QFY19 3QFY18 YoY (%) 2QFY19 QoQ (%) FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E

Net Sales 150.60 136.69 10.2 145.41 3.6 550.40 544.87 588.02 635.88 671.06

EBIT 27.76 19.65 41.3 19.40 43.1 86.02 82.81 95.16 113.73 119.93

APAT 25.10 21.86 14.8 22.89 9.6 80.81 82.57 92.49 102.16 107.27

Diluted EPS (Rs) 5.6 4.8 14.8 5.1 9.6 17.9 18.3 20.5 22.6 23.8

P/E (x) 19.4 19.0 16.9 15.3 14.6

EV / EBITDA (x) 12.5 13.5 11.8 9.6 8.6

RoE (%) 16.4 16.5 18.1 17.8 16.7

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

INDUSTRY IT

CMP (as on 18 Jan 2019) Rs 346

Target Price Rs 330 Nifty 10,907

Sensex 36,387

KEY STOCK DATA

Bloomberg WPRO IN

No. of Shares (mn) 4,525

MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 1,566/22,021

6m avg traded value (Rs mn) 1,464

STOCK PERFORMANCE (%)

52 Week high / low Rs 348 / 254

3M 6M 12M

Absolute (%) 7.1 21.5 6.4

Relative (%) 2.5 21.5 3.2

SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%)

Promoters 74.30

FIs & Local MFs 6.77

FPIs 8.45

Public & Others 10.48

Source : BSE

Amit Chandra [email protected] +91-22-6171-7345

Apurva Prasad [email protected] +91-22-6171-7327

Akshay Ramnani [email protected] +91-22-6171-7334

Page 2: RESULTS REVIEW 3QFY19 19 JAN 2019 Wipro - 3QFY19... · Wipro delivered better than expected margins but revenue growth and guidance was muted. USD revenue was up 0.3% QoQ vs est

WIPRO: RESULTS REVIEW 3QFY19

Page | 2

QoQ USD Revenue Growth YoY USD Revenue Growth

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

IT Services EBIT Margin Trend (Adjusted) Revenue/Employee Trend

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

USD revenue growth stood at 0.3% QoQ. IT services (excluding ISRE business) grew 1.8% QoQ and 2.4% QoQ CC Lowered revenue growth guidance range to 0 to 2% CC QoQ taking macro risks into account Adjusted IT Services EBIT margin expanded sharply to 19.8% vs 18.6% in 1QFY19 IT services margin improvement was led by operational benefits and lower G&A on account of provision reversals

1.1

2.1

0.3

2.4 2.6

(0.8

)

(0.7

)

2.7

0.9

2.1

(0.0

)

2.4

(1.7

)

0.7

0.3

(3)

(1)

1

3

1QFY

16

2QFY

16

3QFY

16

4QFY

16

1QFY

17

2QFY

17

3QFY

17

4QFY

17

1QFY

18

2QFY

18

3QFY

18

4QFY

18

1QFY

19

2QFY

19

3QFY

19

(%, QoQ)

3.1

3.4

2.4

6.1

7.6

4.6

3.5

3.9

2.1

5.1

5.8

5.5

2.8

1.4 1.7

0

4

8

12

1Q

FY1

6

2Q

FY1

6

3Q

FY1

6

4Q

FY1

6

1Q

FY1

7

2Q

FY1

7

3Q

FY1

7

4Q

FY1

7

1Q

FY1

8

2Q

FY1

8

3Q

FY1

8

4Q

FY1

8

1Q

FY1

9

2Q

FY1

9

3Q

FY1

9

(%, YoY)

21.0 20.7

20.2

20.1

17.8 17.8

18.3 18.3

16.8 17.3

17.2

16.0 15.9

18.6

19.8

14

16

18

20

22

24

1QFY

16

2QFY

16

3QFY

16

4QFY

16

1QFY

17

2QFY

17

3QFY

17

4QFY

17

1QFY

18

2QFY

18

3QFY

18

4QFY

18

1QFY

19

2QFY

19

3QFY

19

(%)

44.9

44.4

43.4

43

.8

44.5

44

.0

43.1

43.4

44.1

46

.0

46

.3 47

.3

46

.2

45

.1

43

.9

40

42

44

46

48

50

1Q

FY1

6

2Q

FY1

6

3Q

FY1

6

4Q

FY1

6

1Q

FY1

7

2Q

FY1

7

3Q

FY1

7

4Q

FY1

7

1Q

FY1

8

2Q

FY1

8

3Q

FY1

8

4Q

FY1

8

1Q

FY1

9

2Q

FY1

9

3Q

FY1

9

(USD '000)

Page 3: RESULTS REVIEW 3QFY19 19 JAN 2019 Wipro - 3QFY19... · Wipro delivered better than expected margins but revenue growth and guidance was muted. USD revenue was up 0.3% QoQ vs est

WIPRO: RESULTS REVIEW 3QFY19

Page | 3

Quarterly Consolidated Financials Snapshot YE March (Rs bn) 3QFY19 3QFY18 YoY (%) 2QFY19 QoQ (%)

IT Services Revenues (USD bn) 2.05 2.01 1.7 2.04 0.3

Total Revenues 150.60 136.69 10.2 145.41 3.6

Operating Expenses 117.67 111.76 5.3 121.64 -3.3

EBITDA 32.93 24.93 32.1 23.77 38.5

Depreciation 5.17 5.28 -2.0 4.37 18.3

EBIT 27.76 19.65 41.3 19.40 43.1

Other Income 5.37 6.14 -12.6 5.16 4.1

Interest costs 1.63 1.21 35.0 1.57 3.7

Forex gain/(loss) 0.91 0.13 628.8 1.22 -25.1

PBT 32.41 24.71 31.1 24.20 33.9

Minority Interest 0.34 -0.01 NM -0.03 NM

Tax 6.97 5.36 30.1 5.35 30.3

RPAT 25.10 19.37 29.6 18.89 32.9

E/o (adj for tax) 0.00 -2.49 NM -4.01 NM

APAT 25.10 21.86 14.8 22.89 9.6

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Margin Analysis MARGIN ANALYSIS 3QFY19 3QFY18 YoY (bps) 2QFY19 QoQ (bps)

Operating Expenses % Net Revenues 78.1 81.8 (363) 83.7 (552)

EBITDA Margin (%) 21.9 18.2 363 16.3 552

EBIT Margin (%) 18.4 14.4 406 13.3 509

Tax Rate (%) 21.5 21.7 (17) 22.1 (60)

APAT Margin (%) 16.7 14.2 250 13.0 368

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

IT services revenue was USD 2.05bn, up 0.26% QoQ Consolidated EBIT margin expanded 509 bps to 18.4% due to onetime expenses in 2QFY19 related to law suit settlement of USD 75mn Adjusted EBIT margin stood at 19.8%, +120bps QoQ APAT stood at Rs 25.1bn (+9.6% QoQ), higher than our estimate of Rs 23bn, led by margin beat and higher other income

Page 4: RESULTS REVIEW 3QFY19 19 JAN 2019 Wipro - 3QFY19... · Wipro delivered better than expected margins but revenue growth and guidance was muted. USD revenue was up 0.3% QoQ vs est

WIPRO: RESULTS REVIEW 3QFY19

Page | 4

Vertical Revenue Break-up (IT Services ex ISRE) (% of revenue) 1QFY18 2QFY18 3QFY18 4QFY18 1QFY19 2QFY19 3QFY19

BFSI 26.6 27.6 28.3 28.7 29.8 30.5 31.4

Consumer Business Unit 15.0 15.1 15.1 15.0 15.3 15.7 15.6

Health Business Unit 15.1 14.0 14.3 14.2 13.6 13.0 13.1

ENU and Utilities 13.5 13.5 12.7 12.7 12.7 12.8 13.0

Technology 13.8 14.3 14.3 14.6 14.5 13.9 13.0

Manufacturing 9.1 8.9 8.8 8.9 8.4 8.3 8.1

Communications 6.9 6.6 6.5 5.9 5.7 5.8 5.8

Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research, ISRE is India State Run Enterprise segment which was hived off from IT services in 3QFY19. Prior numbers are restated excluding ISRE

Vertical-wise Revenue Growth (IT Services ex ISRE) (QoQ, %) 2QFY18 3QFY18 4QFY18 1QFY19 2QFY19 3QFY19

BFSI 5.7 2.7 3.8 2.3 3.4 4.8

Consumer Business Unit 2.6 0.2 1.7 0.5 3.7 1.2

Health Business Unit -5.5 2.3 1.6 -5.7 -3.4 2.6

ENU and Utilities 1.9 -5.8 2.3 -1.5 1.8 3.4

Technology 5.6 0.2 4.5 -2.2 -3.1 -4.8

Manufacturing -0.4 -1.0 3.5 -7.0 -0.2 -0.6

Communications -2.6 -1.4 -7.1 -4.8 2.8 1.8

Total 1.9 0.2 2.3 -1.5 1.0 1.8

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Strong growth in BFSI continues, led by Digital Healthcare revived, growth was strong at 2.6% QoQ, but HPS challenges remain Pricing of digital business is at a premium, margins are getting reinvested back in the business

Page 5: RESULTS REVIEW 3QFY19 19 JAN 2019 Wipro - 3QFY19... · Wipro delivered better than expected margins but revenue growth and guidance was muted. USD revenue was up 0.3% QoQ vs est

WIPRO: RESULTS REVIEW 3QFY19

Page | 5

Service Line Break-Up (IT Services ex ISRE) (% of revenue) 1QFY18 2QFY18 3QFY18 4QFY18 1QFY19 2QFY19 3QFY19

Modern Application Services 46.1 46.1 45.7 45.5 46.7 46.3 45.6

Cloud and Infrastructure Services 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.6 26.3 25.6 25.0

Digital Operations and Platforms 12.3 12.4 12.9 12.4 12.4 12.9 14.7

Data, Analytics and AI 7.3 7.2 7.1 7.1 7.2 7.8 7.6

Industrial & Engineering Services 7.1 7.1 7.0 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.1

Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Service Line Growth (IT Services ex ISRE) (QoQ, %) 2QFY18 3QFY18 4QFY18 1QFY19 2QFY19 3QFY19

Modern Application Services 1.9 -0.7 1.9 1.1 0.2 0.3

Cloud and Infrastructure Services 1.9 0.5 3.5 -6.1 -1.6 -0.5

Digital Operations and Platforms 2.7 4.2 -1.6 -1.5 5.1 16.1

Data, Analytics and AI 0.5 -1.2 2.3 -0.1 9.5 -0.8

Industrial & Engineering Services 1.9 -1.2 8.2 -1.5 1.0 -2.3

Total 1.9 0.2 2.3 -1.5 1.0 1.8

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Growth was led by Digital, Operations and Platforms (BPO) at 16.1% QoQ, Industrial & Engineering was down 2.3% QoQ Market size of technology is increasing, Technology spending is more front ended compared to back office functions earlier

Page 6: RESULTS REVIEW 3QFY19 19 JAN 2019 Wipro - 3QFY19... · Wipro delivered better than expected margins but revenue growth and guidance was muted. USD revenue was up 0.3% QoQ vs est

WIPRO: RESULTS REVIEW 3QFY19

Page | 6

Geographic Revenue Break-up (IT Services ex ISRE) (% of revenue) 1QFY18 2QFY18 3QFY18 4QFY18 1QFY19 2QFY19 3QFY19

Americas 55.6 54.8 54.1 53.8 56.0 56.1 57.1

Europe 24.7 25.6 26.5 27.5 26.1 25.7 25.5

RoW 19.7 19.6 19.4 18.7 17.9 18.2 17.4

Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Geographic Revenue Growth (IT Services ex ISRE) (QoQ, %) 2QFY18 3QFY18 4QFY18 1QFY19 2QFY19 3QFY19

Americas 0.4 -1.1 1.8 2.5 1.2 3.7

Europe 5.6 3.7 6.2 -6.5 -0.5 1.0

RoW 1.4 -0.9 -1.4 -5.7 2.7 -2.6

Total 1.9 0.2 2.3 -1.5 1.0 1.8

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Onsite-offshore Split (IT Services ex ISRE) (% of revenue) 1QFY18 2QFY18 3QFY18 4QFY18 1QFY19 2QFY19 3QFY19

Onsite revenue 53.6 53.2 53.5 52.7 52.9 52.8 52.2

Offshore revenue 46.4 46.8 46.5 47.3 47.1 47.2 47.8

Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Onsite-offshore Growth (IT Services ex ISRE) (QoQ, %) 2QFY18 3QFY18 4QFY18 1QFY19 2QFY19 3QFY19

Onsite revenue 1.1 0.7 0.8 -1.1 0.8 0.7

Offshore revenue 2.8 -0.5 4.1 -1.9 1.3 3.1

Total 1.9 0.2 2.3 -1.5 1.0 1.8

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

America’s growth since last four quarters is strong while Europe growth recovered RoW is expected to remain volatile due to India restructuring

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WIPRO: RESULTS REVIEW 3QFY19

Page | 7

Headcount, Attrition And Utilisation Data (Nos.) 1QFY18 2QFY18 3QFY18 4QFY18 1QFY19 2QFY19 3QFY19

Total headcount (IT Services ex ISRE) 161,439 159,300 158,865 159,923 160,846 171,451 172,379

Net additions -2,139 -435 1,058 923 10,605 928

Voluntary TTM attrition (%) 16.1 16.0 16.1 16.8 17.1 17.5 17.9

Gross Utilisation (%) 72.0 72.9 71.0 73.1 74.5 74.4 73.4

Utilisation excluding trainees (%) 82.1 82.5 81.9 83.4 85.2 85.5 83.2

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Key Assumptions Particulars FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E

IT Services Growth (USD) % 4.9 4.6 1.6 5.4 5.6

USD/INR rate 68.0 65.1 70.0 72.0 72.0

Products Growth (INR) % (4.6) (28.3) (27.8) 0.0 1.0

IT Services EBIT Margin % 18.2 16.8 18.3 18.5 19.0

Consolidated EBIT margin (%) 15.6 15.2 16.2 17.9 17.9

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research * Adjusted

Attrition in the US can go up on tight labour market

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WIPRO: RESULTS REVIEW 3QFY19

Page | 8

Change In Estimates Particulars Earlier estimates Revised estimates % change

FY19E

IT revenue (USD bn) 8.26 8.19 (0.8)

Net revenue (Rs bn) 594.85 588.02 (1.1)

Cons. EBIT (Rs bn) 91.67 95.16 3.8

EBIT margin (%) 15.4 16.2 77

EPS (Rs) 19.8 20.5 3.6

FY20E

IT revenue (USD bn) 8.65 8.63 (0.3)

Net revenue (Rs bn) 638.52 635.88 (0.4)

Cons. EBIT (Rs bn) 106.76 113.73 6.5

EBIT margin (%) 16.7 17.9 116

EPS (Rs) 21.3 22.6 6.1

FY21E

IT revenue (USD bn) 9.14 9.11 (0.3)

Net revenue (Rs bn) 673.74 671.06 (0.4)

Cons. EBIT (Rs bn) 116.94 119.93 2.6

EBIT margin (%) 17.4 17.9 51

EPS (Rs) 23.2 23.8 2.5

Source: HDFC sec Inst Research

Peer Set Comparison

Company MCap CMP TP

RECO EPS (Rs) P/E (x) RoE (%)

(Rs bn) (Rs) (Rs) FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E

TCS 7,131 1,900 2,460 BUY 68.8 84.1 93.8 104.2 27.6 22.6 20.3 18.2 30.1 36.2 38.1 39.2

Infosys 3,180 731 830 BUY 33.9 36.8 41.2 45.7 21.6 19.8 17.7 16.0 24.5 22.5 23.6 24.0

Wipro 1,566 346 330 NEU 17.9 18.3 20.5 22.6 19.4 19.0 16.9 15.3 16.4 16.5 18.1 17.8

HCL Tech 1,343 965 1,255 BUY 64.8 74.8 82.8 89.8 14.9 12.9 11.7 10.7 25.3 26.2 25.6 24.3

TechM 632 709 830 BUY 42.7 47.0 52.0 56.6 16.6 15.1 13.6 12.5 21.5 20.8 20.1 19.3

Tier-1 IT AVG 20.0 17.9 16.0 14.6 23.6 24.4 25.1 24.9

Source: HDFC sec Inst Research

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WIPRO: RESULTS REVIEW 3QFY19

Page | 9

Consolidated Income Statement YE March (RS bn) FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E

IT Services Net Revenues (USD bn) 7.70 8.06 8.19 8.63 9.11

Growth (%) 4.9 4.6 1.6 5.4 5.6

Net Revenues 550.40 544.87 588.02 635.88 671.06

Growth (%) 7.4 (1.0) 7.9 8.1 5.5

Operating Expenses 441.28 440.94 473.76 501.06 527.23

EBITDA 109.13 103.93 114.25 134.82 143.84

EBITDA (%) 19.8 19.1 19.4 21.2 21.4

EBITDA Growth (%) 1.0 (4.8) 9.9 18.0 6.7

Depreciation 23.11 21.12 19.10 21.09 23.91

EBIT 86.02 82.81 95.16 113.73 119.93

Other Income 21.66 23.86 23.56 22.62 23.13

Interest 5.18 5.68 6.45 6.67 6.90

Forex gains/(losses) 3.78 1.49 3.92 1.62 1.70

PBT 106.27 102.47 116.19 131.30 137.87

Tax (incl deferred) 25.21 22.39 25.39 28.89 30.33

Minority Interest and associate profit

-0.25 -0.00 -0.34 -0.25 -0.27

RPAT 84.90 80.08 90.46 102.16 107.27

EO (Loss) / Profit (Net Of Tax) 4.08 -2.49 -2.03 0.00 0.00

APAT 80.81 82.57 92.49 102.16 107.27

APAT Growth (%) (9.2) 2.2 12.0 10.5 5.0

EPS 17.9 18.3 20.5 22.6 23.8

EPS Growth (%) (9.2) 2.2 12.0 10.5 5.0

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Consolidated Balance Sheet YE March (Rs bn) FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E

SOURCES OF FUNDS

Share Capital - Equity 4.86 9.05 9.05 9.05 9.05

Reserves 515.44 473.89 532.59 597.70 666.86

Total Shareholders' Funds 520.30 482.94 541.64 606.75 675.91

Minority Interest 2.39 2.41 2.75 3.01 3.28

Total Debt 142.41 138.26 138.26 138.26 138.26

Net Deferred Taxes 3.52 -3.85 -3.85 -3.85 -3.85

Long Term Provisions & Others 15.05 19.67 19.67 19.67 19.67

TOTAL SOURCES OF FUNDS 683.68 639.43 698.47 763.84 833.26

APPLICATION OF FUNDS

Net Block 60.84 49.28 50.76 51.93 51.50

CWIP 8.95 15.17 15.17 15.17 15.17

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets 141.72 135.70 135.70 135.70 135.70

LT Loans & Advances, Others 40.01 74.64 74.64 74.64 74.64

Total Non Current Assets 251.52 274.78 276.26 277.43 277.00

Inventories 3.92 3.37 4.12 4.45 4.70

Debtors 94.85 100.99 107.94 116.72 123.18

Cash & Equivalents 344.74 294.02 346.41 404.89 469.46

Other Current Assets 95.40 80.58 86.44 93.47 98.65

Total Current Assets 538.90 478.96 544.90 619.54 695.98

Creditors 65.49 68.13 72.04 76.50 80.16

Other Current Liabilities & Provns 41.26 46.18 50.65 56.63 59.56

Total Current Liabilities 106.74 114.30 122.68 133.13 139.73

Net Current Assets 432.16 364.65 422.21 486.41 556.26

TOTAL APPLICATION OF FUNDS 683.68 639.43 698.47 763.84 833.26

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

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Consolidated Cash Flow YE March (Rs bn) FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E

Reported PBT 106.27 102.47 116.19 131.30 137.87

Non-operating & EO items (19.76) (10.32) (23.56) (22.62) (23.13)

Interest expenses 5.18 5.68 6.45 6.67 6.90

Depreciation 23.11 21.12 19.10 21.09 23.91

Working Capital Change 4.54 (0.94) (5.17) (5.71) (5.28)

Tax paid (25.48) (28.11) (25.39) (28.89) (30.33)

OPERATING CASH FLOW ( a ) 93.87 89.91 87.61 101.84 109.93

Capex (53.25) (27.35) (20.58) (22.26) (23.49)

Free cash flow (FCF) 40.62 62.56 67.03 79.59 86.44

Investments (0.23) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Non-operating income 17.38 14.96 23.56 22.62 23.13

INVESTING CASH FLOW ( b ) (36.10) (12.40) 2.98 0.37 (0.36)

Debt Issuance 12.98 (11.15) 0.00 0.00 0.00

Interest expenses (5.18) (5.68) (6.45) (6.67) (6.90)

FCFE 48.42 45.74 60.59 72.91 79.55

Share capital Issuance/Buyback (25.00) (110.29) 0.00 0.00 0.00

Dividend (8.73) (5.42) (31.76) (37.05) (38.11)

FINANCING CASH FLOW ( c ) (25.94) (132.53) (38.20) (43.72) (45.01)

NET CASH FLOW (a+b+c) 31.84 (55.02) 52.39 58.49 64.57

Non-operating and EO items 9.61 4.30 0.00 0.00 0.00

Closing Cash & Equivalents 344.74 294.02 346.41 404.89 469.46

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Key Ratios FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E

PROFITABILITY (%)

EBITDA Margin 19.8 19.1 19.4 21.2 21.4

APAT Margin 14.7 15.2 15.7 16.1 16.0

RoE 16.4 16.5 18.1 17.8 16.7

RoIC or Core RoCE 19.6 18.7 21.1 24.7 25.7

RoCE 11.2 11.2 12.3 12.4 12.0

EFFICIENCY

Tax Rate (%) 22.1 22.8 21.8 21.9 22.0

Fixed Asset Turnover (x) 3.5 4.1 3.8 3.6 3.4

Debtors (days) 63 68 67 67 67

Other Current Assets (days) 63 54 54 54 54

Payables (days) 43 46 45 44 44

Other Current Liability (days) 27 31 31 33 32

Cash Conversion Cycle (days) 55 45 45 44 45

Net Debt/EBITDA (x) (1.9) (1.5) (1.8) (2.0) (2.3)

Net Debt/Equity (x) (0.4) (0.3) (0.4) (0.4) (0.5)

Interest Coverage (x) 16.6 14.6 14.8 17.0 17.4

PER SHARE DATA

EPS (Rs/sh) 17.9 18.3 20.5 22.6 23.8

CEPS (Rs/sh) 23.9 22.4 24.3 27.3 29.1

DPS (Rs/sh) 1.9 1.2 7.1 8.2 8.5

BV (Rs/sh) 115.2 107.0 120.0 134.4 149.7

VALUATION

P/E 19.4 19.0 16.9 15.3 14.6

P/BV 3.0 3.2 2.9 2.6 2.3

EV/EBITDA 12.5 13.5 11.8 9.6 8.6

OCF/EV (%) 6.9 6.4 6.5 7.9 8.9

FCF/EV (%) 3.0 4.5 5.0 6.1 7.0

FCFE/mkt cap (%) 3.1 2.9 3.9 4.7 5.1

Dividend Yield (%) 0.5 0.3 1.7 2.0 2.1

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

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Rating Definitions BUY : Where the stock is expected to deliver more than 10% returns over the next 12 month period NEUTRAL : Where the stock is expected to deliver (-)10% to 10% returns over the next 12 month period SELL : Where the stock is expected to deliver less than (-)10% returns over the next 12 month period

Date CMP Reco Target

10-Jan-18 317 NEU 300

20-Jan-18 328 NEU 295

12-Apr-18 286 NEU 285

27-Apr-18 281 NEU 265

6-Jul-18 263 NEU 280

21-Jul-18 283 NEU 270

10-Oct-18 317 NEU 300

25-Oct-18 309 NEU 325

30-Nov-18 315 NEU 325

8-Jan-19 326 NEU 325

19-Jan-19 346 NEU 330

RECOMMENDATION HISTORY

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

Jan

-18

Feb

-18

Mar

-18

Ap

r-1

8

May

-18

Jun

-18

Jul-

18

Au

g-1

8

Sep

-18

Oct

-18

No

v-1

8

De

c-1

8

Jan

-19

Wipro TP

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Disclosure: We, Amit Chandra, MBA, Apurva Prasad, MBA & Akashay Ramnani, CA, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. HSL has no material adverse disciplinary history as on the date of publication of this report. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. Research Analyst or his/her relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. does not have any financial interest in the subject company. Also Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its Associate may have beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Report. 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