Results of the environmental assessments with the CCAT-tool

Results of the environmental assessments with the CCAT-tool

W. de Vries, J.P. Lesschen, J. Kros, M. Kempen and B.S. Elbersen

Alterra, Wageningen UR and University of Bonn

CCAT end-user meeting, 30 March 2010

Outline

• CCAT approach to predict environmental indicators

• Environmental indicators – Description and base line results – Comparison results with other studies

• Cross compliance measures• Results environmental assessments

– Effect of separate measures (graphs)– All SMRs and GAECs (maps of baselines and effects)

• Conclusions

Approach

• Existing models are further adapted and integrated into the CCAT tool

• Basis of the CCAT tool– Economic model CAPRI– Environmental assessment model

MITERRA-Europe – Meta-models of the detailed

biogeochemical models DNDC and EPIC, for a limited number of indicators and measures

CAPRI

Excretion modelMITERRA

manure/fertiliser modelMITERRA

Livestock, landuse

ExcretionC, N, P, metals

input to soil C, N, P, Cd, Pb, Cu, Zn

housing modelMITERRA

Uptake modelMITERRA

uptakeN, P, metals

housing emissionNH3, N2O, CH4

soil emissionNH3, N2O, CH4

Soil moduleMITERRA

DNDC metamodel

Base line 2005

CC measures

EPIC metamodel

N leaching,runoff

erosion

MITERRA-Europe

• A tool for integrated assessment of N, P and C budgets and emissions from agriculture in EU-27 at Member State and regional levels (NUTS-2)

• Developed for the European Commission

• Based on information from CAPRI and RAINS/GAINS

• Simple/rapid model

• Uniform approach for EU-27

• Analysis of scenarios and measures

MITERRA-Europe

Crop production: - Crop type - Cropped area - Management

Groundwater & surface waters

N inputs: N fertilizer BNF, N deposition

Animal production: - Animal species - Animal number - Management

N outputs: milk, meat, egg

NH4+ NO3

- DON Npart NH4+ NO3

- DON Npart

NH3 N2O NOX N2

Atmosphere

N outputs: harvested crop

NH3 N2O NOX N2

Atmosphere

manure

feed

MITERRA-Europe in CCAT tool

Cross compliance obligations

Changes in management

Costs of compliance

CAPRI: Market response 1) Changes in cropping

shares 2) Change in livestock

type/number

MITERRA: emissions to: 1) Water

2) Air 3) Soil

CAPRI

MITERRA-Europe

Set of ND measures

Per NUTS2 % in: Nfer, Nam

Cost due to N: € (kg N ha-1)-1

4

Per NUTS2 % in: #An, crop area

5

NO3 le, NH3 em, N2Oem

CH4 em, Nbalance, Pbalance

Per NUTS2:- Total costs € ha-1

- Environmental indicators

CAPRI-Preprocessor

Additional cost: € ha-1

2

11

23

6

7

MITERRA-Europe indicators• Air:

• NH3 emission

• N2O emission

• CH4 emission

• GHG emission

• Water:

• N leaching

• N (sub-)surface runoff

• NO3 concentration groundwater

Soil: • Soil carbon stock • N balance • P balance• Metal balance (Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni,

Pb, Zn and Hg)

Biodiversity:• Critical N load exceedance

(terrestrial ecosystems)• N-concentration in surface water

(aquatic ecosystems)

Nutrient soil balances

N balance EU-27 P balance EU-27

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Input Output

kg

N /

ha

/ y

ea

r

N leaching

N2 emission

Nox emission

NH3 emission

N2O emission

Crop uptake

N fixation

Deposition

Fertilizer

Grazing

Manure

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Input Output

kg

P /

ha

/ y

ea

r

Accumulation

Crop uptake

Deposition

Fertilizer

Grazing

Manure

Metal balances EU-27

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

Cd input Cd output

g C

d/h

a/ye

ar

Accumulation andleachingCrop uptake

Deposition

Sludge

Manure

Fertilizer

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Cu input Cu output

g C

u/h

a/y

ea

r

Accumulation andleachingCrop uptake

Deposition

Sludge

Manure

Fertilizer

Comparison MITERRA results

0

5

10

15

20

25

0 5 10 15 20 25

UNFCCC values (Tg CO2-eq)

Mit

err

a-E

uro

pe

(T

g C

O2

-eq

)

N2O: reported EU-27 to UNFCCC NH3: EMEP and NEC values

Measures: status/decisions

Linkage SMRs/GAECs and proxy CCAT measures include: • SMRs Nitrates Directive

– 8 SMRs evaluated by MITERRA-Europe– 3 SMRs evaluated by DNDC – 1 SMR evaluated by EPIC.

• SMRs Ground Water and Sewage Sludge Directive – 1 measure related to heavy metals evaluated by MITERRA-

Europe

• GAECs (focused on carbon sequestration) – 3 GAECs (crop rotations, cover crops & zero tillage)

evaluated by MITERRA . – 2 GAECs (cover crops & zero tillage) evaluated by EPIC and

DNDC.

Clustered Nitrates Directive measures

• Maximum manure N application (170 kg N/ha) • Limitation to N application in winter and wet

periods• Limitation to N application on sloping grounds• Manure storage with minimum risk on leaching• Appropriate application techniques• Buffer zones • Growing winter crops • (Balanced N fertilizer application)

Compliance levels

• Present compliance levels are related to the base line period 2005-2009. Full compliance is assumed 100%, unless impossible, using activities for the year 2005.

• Present compliance levels are based on investigations within CCAT.

Results environmental assessments with MITERRA-Europe

Effect of measures

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

BALF MaxMan NOFMWW LimSlope AFMAT BufStrip GWC

Ch

ang

e in

em

issi

on

(%

)

NH3 emission

N2O emission

N surplus

N leaching

Comparison scenarios

-6.0%

-5.0%

-4.0%

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

NH3 emission N2O emission N balance N leaching P balance

% change 2005 vs zero compl.

% change full versus zero compl.

NO3 concentration groundwater

% diff. baselinevs 0-compl.

baseline

N concentration in surface water


baseline

N2O emission


baseline

NH3 emission

NH3 emissionbaseline


Critical N load exceedance

Exceedance CLbaseline


Metal balances

Cd balancebaseline


Soil organic carbon stocks

baseline abs diff. baselinevs 0-compl.

Results detailed environmental assessments with Meta models EPIC

and DNDC

Limitations meta model assessments

SMRs and GAECs evaluated by Meta models: • do not include present compliance levels and possible

future implementation levels per country• are limited to 2 crops only, i.e. maize and barley • are limited to 2 GAECs, i.e. cover crops and zero tillage

Results thus show:• a spatially detailed assessment • for a theoretical situation (zero and full compliance)• and a limited number of crops

DNDC: No tillage vs Tillage scenario: N2O

• Rainfed Maize• Cover/N fixing crop

(clover)• Expressed as %

change with regard to baseline– Erosion– NO3 leaching

EPIC: Cover crop

• Barley: no-till– Erosion

– NO3 leaching

EPIC: No-till

Conclusions

Impacts of CC obligations (SMRs) related to the Nitrates Directive:

• Impacts are highest on N leaching/runoff • There is a small positive effect on NH3 emissions, N2O

emissions and carbon sequestration. • Except for balanced N fertilization, the impacts are

limited (<5%) on N leaching/N concentrations and very limited (<2%) for N emissions.

• The difference between baseline and zero compliance (what did we gain) is larger than between full compliance and baseline (what can still be gained). CC levels for the Nitrates Directive are already high

Conclusions

• CC obligations (GAECs) may significantly reduce erosion and to a lesser extent N fluxes

• Cross Compliance impacts are regionally different. In most regions, there are positive changes in agricultural emissions. However, a selection of regions experience negative environmental externalities: – Soil C (Poland, Southern Portugal), – Ammonia (Poland, Bulgaria, Romania, Alpes-Mediteranée).

• A strict balanced N fertilization can further reduce N leaching and NH3 emissions and enhance GHG mitigation

Documents

Results of the environmental assessments with the CCAT-tool