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Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelresearch.com, Bloomberg EDEL <GO>, Thomson First Call, Reuters and Factset.
Edelweiss Securities Limited
South Indian Bank’s (SIB) Q3FY18 performance improved anchored by improved growth momentum and steady asset quality. Key highlights: 1) slippages normalised, as expected, to 2.1% versus ~4.0% in past 6 quarters; 2) loan growth momentum improved (up 16% YoY) with sustained buildup on granular portfolio with focus on SME/retail; and 3) opex growth was relatively higher (up 10% QoQ) following wage revision & DA impact (trend likely in other PSU banks as well). Key monitorable—softer traction in CASA (sub-3% growth) at <25%. As highlighted in our earlier note (Retail to drive growth), the strategic exercise—centralisation of processes, getting more granular—has put SIB on a firm footing and is expected to propel core operating profit CAGR of ~30% and generate RoA/RoE of ~0.8%/13.5% by FY20E. Trading at 1.0x FY20E ABV, the stock is attractively positioned from the risk-reward perspective. Maintain ‘BUY’.
Steady asset quality Slippages came in at INR2.6bn (2.1% versus past six quarters’ ~4.0% run rate). While
fresh slippages were restricted to INR980mn (in line with guidance), devolvement of
non-fund-based exposure (pharma sector) of INR1.52bn led to elevated slippages.
However, the impact on credit cost was restricted as SIB had already provided for >50%
earlier (now have 100% towards this account). SIB maintained its “ZERO” watchlist claim
in corporate exposure. Furthermore, lower stock of 5:25/SDR/S4A/restructured book
indicates lower incremental stress. We believe, rising provisions on NCLT (41% currently)
with lower NPL coverage ratio at 31% is likely to lead to elevated credit cost.
Growth momentum coming to fore NII gained traction at INR5bn (up 22% YoY) following improved loan growth (up 16%
YoY, driven by retail/SME segments). NIMs came in at 2.88% (down 7bps QoQ) on lower
lending yields (down 15bps QoQ, conversion to MCLR regime & move towards better
rated corporate forming 46% versus 30% a year ago) even as funding cost benefit lent
support. Henceforth, transition to MCLR regime and limited cushion on funding cost
(hardening interest rate with soft CASA growth) will likely put some pressure on NIMs.
Outlook and valuations: Risk-reward favourable; maintain ‘BUY’ SIB’s endeavour to derisk its balance sheet by shifting to the retail segment, stable asset
quality, valuations at 1.0x FY20E P/ABV for RoA/RoE of 0.8%/13.5% (post capital raising)
and healthy earnings CAGR of >30% (albeit on low base) over FY17-20E, lend comfort.
We roll over to FY20E earnings and peg our target price at INR44 (INR40 earlier).
RESULT UPDATE
SOUTH INDIAN BANK Core improving; asset quality holds ground
COMPANYNAME
EDELWEISS 4D RATINGS
Absolute Rating BUY
Rating Relative to Sector Outperformer
Risk Rating Relative to Sector Medium
Sector Relative to Market Overweight
MARKET DATA (R: SIBK.BO, B: SIB IN)
CMP : INR 32
Target Price : INR 44
52-week range (INR) : 35 / 19
Share in issue (mn) : 1,805.8
M cap (INR bn/USD mn) : 58 / 919
Avg. Daily Vol.BSE/NSE(‘000) : 17,737.7
SHARE HOLDING PATTERN (%)
Current Q2FY18 Q1FY18
Promoters *
- - -
MF's, FI's & BK’s 15.2 12.3 13.1
FII's 34.6 37.9 38.0
Others 50.3 49.8 48.9
* Promoters pledged shares (% of share in issue)
: NIL
PRICE PERFORMANCE (%)
Stock Nifty EW Banks and
Financial Services Index
1 month (0.2) 3.6 1.1
3 months 7.7 6.1 5.7
12 months 71.0 28.3 37.7
Kunal Shah +91 22 4040 7579
Prakhar Agarwal +91 22 6620 3076
India Equity Research| Banking and Financial Services
January 10, 2018
Financials (INR mn)
Year to March Q3FY18 Q3FY17 Growth (%) Q2FY18 Growth (%) FY17 FY18E FY19E
Net revenue 6,682 6,760 (1.2) 7,837 (14.7) 23,910 29,497 33,399
Net profit 1,150 1,114 3.3 43 NA 3,925 3,863 7,162
Dil. EPS (INR) 0.6 0.8 (21.0) 0.0 NA 2.2 1.9 3.6
Adj. BV (INR) 22.9 23.8 26.4
Price/ Adj book (x) 1.4 1.4 1.2
Price/ Earnings (x) 14.9 16.8 9.0
Banking and Financial Services
2 Edelweiss Securities Limited
Table 1: Key takeaways from Q3FY18 earnings
Source: Company, Edelweiss research
Table 2: Loan growth gaining traction with retail/SME segment being key drivers
Source: Company
(INR mn) Q3FY18 Q3FY17 Growth (%) Q2FY18 Growth (%) Comments
Net interest income 5,094 4,175 22.0 5,032 1.2
Gained traction following improving loan growth
(up 16% YoY, driven by retail/SME segment).While
NIMs saw some pressure on lending yields, funding
cost improvement lent support.
Other income 1,588 2,585 (38.6) 2,805 (43.4)
Other income softer due to lower treasury gains.
Core fee income continued momentum supported by
better cross sell opportunities.
Operating expenses 3,381 2,991 13.0 3,234 4.5
Operating profitability supported by controlled cost.
We expect cost to rise in interim given investments
on retail franchise
Staff expense 1,849 1,752 5.6 1,681 10.0
Growth was higher even following reduction in
number of employees following a) provision of wage
revision and b) rise in DA
Other opex 1,532 1,239 23.6 1,554 (1.4)
Pre prov Op profit (PPP) 3,302 3,770 (12.4) 4,603 (28.3)
Provisions 1,543 2,066 (25.3) 4,537 (66.0)
Credit cost continues to be elevated (albeit lower)
follwing rise in coverage. Bank was adequaltely
provided for NFB devlovement in Q3FY18 to an
extent of >50%
Profit before tax 1,759 1,703 3.2 66 NA
Provision for tax 609 590 3.2 23 NA
Profit after tax 1,150 1,114 3.3 43 NA
EPS (INR) 0.6 0.8 (21.0) 0.0 NA
Balance sheet data (INR mn) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Advances 5,24,490 4,52,340 16.0 4,89,543 7.1Loan book growth targetted at 18% plus levels,
retail/SME to be key drivers.
Deposits 6,81,090 6,35,950 7.1 6,71,421 1.4
Asset quality (INR mn) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Gross NPA (%) 3.4 4.0 3.6
Incremental slippages taper off on expected lines .
With lower incremental stress and focus on
recoveries, bank expects headline asset quality
numbers to taper off.
Gross NPA 17,746 17,870 (0.7) 17,663 0.5
Net NPA (%) 2.4 2.5 2.6
Net NPA 12,108 11,157 8.5 12,558 (3.6)
Provision coverage (%) 30.9 36.7 28.0Coverage ratio continues to be lower, we expect this
will keep credit cost at elevated levels.
Q3FY16 Q4FY16 Q1FY17 Q2FY17 Q3FY17 Q4FY17 Q1FY18 Q2FY18 Q3FY18
Advances (INR mn) 3,99,240 4,10,858 4,12,370 4,35,478 4,52,340 4,63,895 4,61,854 4,89,543 5,24,490
Growth Q-o-Q 0.9 2.9 0.4 5.6 3.9 2.6 (0.4) 6.0 7.1
Growth Y-o-Y 9.7 9.9 7.8 10.1 13.3 12.9 12.0 12.4 16.0
Deposits (INR mn) 5,34,410 5,57,207 5,78,890 6,01,918 6,35,950 6,61,175 6,57,910 6,71,421 6,81,090
Growth Q-o-Q 0.8 4.3 3.9 4.0 5.7 4.0 (0.5) 2.1 1.4
Growth Y-o-Y 10.3 7.3 10.6 13.5 19.0 18.7 13.7 11.5 7.1
CD ratio (%) 74.7 73.7 71.2 72.3 71.1 70.2 70.2 72.9 77.0
CASA (%) 23.0 22.4 23.2 22.8 25.9 23.8 25.2 24.6 24.9
South Indian Bank
3 Edelweiss Securities Limited
Table 3: Fresh slippages curtailed (on expected lines) but NFB devolvement kept slippages higher
Source: Company
Table 4: Improvement in core fee income, sustainability key
Source: Company
Table 5: NIMs benefitting from lower funding cost, even while lending yields are under pressure
Source: Company
(INR mn) Q3FY16 Q4FY16 Q1FY17 Q2FY17 Q3FY17 Q4FY17 Q1FY18 Q2FY18 Q3FY18
Gross NPA 11,080 15,624 16,516 17,453 17,870 11,490 16,957 17,663 17,746
Growth Q-o-Q 24.2 41.0 5.7 5.7 2.4 (35.7) 47.6 4.2 0.5
Gross NPA (%) 2.8 3.8 4.0 4.0 4.0 2.5 3.6 3.6 3.4
Net NPA 7,160 11,853 11,918 12,064 11,157 6,746 11,825 12,558 12,108
Growth Q-o-Q 30.3 65.5 0.6 1.2 (7.5) (39.5) 75.3 6.2 (3.6)
Net NPA (%) 1.8 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.5 1.5 2.5 2.6 2.4
Provision coverage (%) 34.5 23.3 27.0 30.1 36.7 40.8 29.6 28.0 30.9
(INR mn) Q3FY18 Q2FY17 Growth (%) Q2FY18 Growth (%)
Transaction related 670 450 48.9 640 4.7
Forex 70 80 (12.5) 90 (22.2)
Profit on sale of inv 110 1,270 (91.3) 680 (83.8)
Others 738 785 (6.0) 1,395 (47.1)
Total 1,588 2,585 (38.6) 2,805 (43.4)
(%) Q3FY16 Q4FY16 Q1FY17 Q2FY17 Q3FY17 Q4FY17 Q1FY18 Q2FY18 Q3FY18
NIMs 2.9 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.8 3.0 2.9
Yield on Advances 11.2 10.6 10.9 10.6 10.3 10.0 10.1 10.0 9.9
Cost of Deposits 7.4 7.2 7.0 6.8 6.5 6.3 6.2 6.1 6.0
Banking and Financial Services
4 Edelweiss Securities Limited
Financial snapshot (INR mn) Year to March Q3FY18 Q3FY17 % change Q2FY18 % change YTD18 FY18E FY19E
Interest on advances 12,273 11,285 8.8 11,830 3.7 23,174 50,671 59,527 Interest on investments 3,111 3,091 0.7 3,169 (1.8) 6,365 12,219 13,154
Int. on other resources 39 59 (33.0) 44 (9.9) 104 2,836 3,266
Interest income 15,770 14,790 6.6 15,362 2.7 46,038 65,725 75,947
Interest exp 10,676 10,614 0.6 10,330 3.3 31,305 45,022 51,940
Net int. inc. (INR mn) 5,094 4,175 22.0 5,032 1.2 14,733 20,703 24,007
Other income 1,588 2,585 (38.6) 2,805 (43.4) 6,586 8,794 9,391
Net revenues 6,682 6,760 (1.2) 7,837 (14.7) 21,319 29,497 33,399
Operating expenses 3,381 2,991 13.0 3,234 4.5 9,620 13,281 15,046
Staff expense 1,849 1,752 5.6 1,681 10.0 5,199 7,282 8,197
Other opex 1,532 1,239 23.6 1,554 (1.4) 4,421 5,999 6,848
Pre prov op profit (PPOP) 3,302 3,770 (12.4) 4,603 (28.3) 11,699 16,216 18,353
Provisions 1,543 2,066 (25.3) 4,537 (66.0) 8,323 10,362 7,500
Profit before tax 1,759 1,703 3.2 66 NA 3,376 5,853 10,852
Provision for taxes 609 590 3.2 23 NA 1,169 1,990 3,690
PAT 1,150 1,114 3.3 43 NA 2,208 3,863 7,162
Diluted EPS (INR) 0.6 0.8 (21.0) 0.0 NA 1.2 1.9 3.6
Ratios
NII/GII (%) 32.3 28.2 32.8 32.0 31.5 31.6
Cost/income (%) 50.6 44.2 41.3 45.1 45.0 45.0
Provisions / PPOP 46.7 54.8 98.6 71.1 63.9 40.9
Tax rate (%) 34.6 34.6 34.4 34.6 34.0 34.0
Bal. sheet data (INRbn)
Advances 524,490 452,340 16.0 489,543 7.1 524,490 547,396 656,875
Deposits 681,090 635,950 7.1 671,421 1.4 681,090 735,265 864,444
Asset quality
Gross NPA 17,746 17,870 (0.7) 17,663 0.5 17,746 18,224 22,089
Gross NPA (%) 3.4 4.0 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.3
Net NPA 12,108 11,157 8.5 12,558 (3.6) 12,108 10,261 10,307
Net NPA (%) 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.4 1.9 1.6
B/V per share (INR) 27.3 30.0
Adj book value / share 23.8 26.4
Price/ Adj. book (x) 1.4 1.2
Price/ Earnings 16.8 9.0
South Indian Bank
5 Edelweiss Securities Limited
Key highlights: Q3FY18 earnings conference call
With respect to asset quality
Fresh slippages during the quarter was INR980mn, but devolvement of Non-Fund
based exposure (Pharma sector) of INR1.52bn led to higher slippages. The bank was
already carrying > 50% provisions on this and made additional provisions to have
100% coverage on this account (bank has no such NFB exposure left). The slippages
should normalise henceforth (INR1-1.2bn per quarter) , except the 2 accounts that are
in restructured book.
GNPAs movement (INR bn) – Opening: 17.6, Slippages: 2.6, Cash Recovery: 0.2,
Upgrades: 0.77, Write-offs: 1.52, Closing: 17.7
Restructured book at INR2.48bn, contains 2 annuity based road projects (not much risk
to slipping into NPLs), the bak holds provisions of 10-15% on the restructured book
The bank has exposure of INR6.6bn towards NCLT list for which they have been
provided to the extent of 41% ( balance 9% will be provided in Q4FY17). Stepping into
FY18, management expect to curtail credit cost at < 1% levels.
o NCLT list has one EPC account of INR2bn wherein bank anticipates to make 100%
provisions but large part of that have already been made.
The bank maintained its ZERO watchlist claims in the corporate exposure. Further they
highlighted that 74% of corporate book has been above investment grade. The portion
of below BBB rated accounts has been coming down, the trend of this will continue.
Moreover, the corporate book with exposure of > INR250mn now stands at INR185.6bn
largely contributed by Financial Intermediaries (23%) primarily NBFCs, Infra – 15% ,
metal 6% among others.
SRs: INR12.74bn, further bank already has 49% is the blended provision on SRs portfolio.
SDR (standard): NIL, 5:25 refinance– INR3.05bn (2 accounts) .
With respect to growth and other operating metrics
Loan growth during the quarter was 16%, largely driven by SME , mortgage, agri and
retail loans. Management aims to achieve loan growth at 18% levels in FY18, driven
by MSME and retail business. And henceforth aims to achieve 20% plus growth
Other income growth ( ex-treasury) aims to grow at > 25%. Other income in last
quarter had some one-offs ( PSLCs etc)
NIMs during the quarter was 2.88%. Management has maintained its NIMs guidance
in the range of 2.85-2.90%
o There was some pressure on yields given focus on higher collateral, has led to
competitive pricing
o Funding cost benefitted during the quarter due to run-down in higher cost deposits.
CASA grew <3% YoY (partially a impact of higher deposit base), and now stands 24.9%.
Management have highlighted CASA target growth of 25% (also focus on NRI part of
CASA), and overall deposit growth to be in line with advance growth
The opex was higher during the quarter due to a) wage revision (12%, for 2 months
starting November), impact of INR100mn and b) DA.
Banking and Financial Services
6 Edelweiss Securities Limited
Other highlights
During the quarter bank has raised tier-2 bonds for INR4.9bn. Further the board has
approved the issuance of 200m share through QIB, price, time and others details will be
intimidated in. This capital will provide enough capital for growth needs
Treasury income was lower at INR110mn.
The bank plans to add 50 branches and extension counter (more tilt towards extension
counters) per year.
The cost/income ratio target of 47%, further improving to 45% ( in FY19).
Reduction in employee count is on account of retirement (retirement happens in
November) and not because on right sizing. The bank plans to add on to the work force
overtime.
Avg Ticket Size – 25lakh for home loans
AFS duration is around 3 years.
Expect to achieve RoA of 1% plus by FY20.
South Indian Bank
7 Edelweiss Securities Limited
Key highlights: Q2FY18 earnings conference call
With respect to asset quality
Q2FY18 saw exceptional provisions to the tune of INR2.5bn on MTM valuation of
Security Receipts received on the sale of assets to ARC
o The bank had sold INR17.8bn to ARCs at an upfront discount of 33%; on top of this,
the bank has made another 25% provisioning on the same
Consequently, given >50% coverage on these, the bank does not expect any
further provisioning hit on the same
Outstanding SRs stood at INR12.7bn (book value), with the aforementioned
provisions of INR2.5bn
o Of the accounts sold to ARCs, INR7.6bn (4 accounts) are meant for the NCLT
resolution process under the IBC process
Management expects provisions to be elevated for the next 2 quarters at ~INR2bn
levels mainly due to incremental provisioning on:
o IBC accounts: Bank has exposure to 5 accounts amounting to INR8.9bn, with
existing provisions in the range of 25-50%
Management expects to achieve 50% provisioning on these accounts by
March-2018
Breakup of these accounts – Steel: 16%, Infra & EPC: 59%, Auto-ancillary: 25%
Management expects the steel account to turnaround and not require more than 50%
provisioning
At the same time, significant proposals are running in the case of Infra & EPC accounts
o Residual corporate accounts recognized as NPAs
GNPAs movement (INR bn) – Opening: 16.9, Slippages: 2.5, Cash Recovery: 0.4,
Upgrades: 0.9, Write-offs: 0.6, Closing: 17.7
o Slippages break-up - Food processing: INR1.0bn, Trade: INR0.6bn, Textile
manufactures: INR0.2bn, Others: INR0.7bn
Slippages of food processing a/cs is a one-off, as money may have been
diverted into real estate
Outstanding accounts – 5:25: INR3.0bn (2 accounts), Standard restructured: INR2.5bn,
Standard SDR & S4A: Nil
With respect to guidance
Management aims to achieve loan growth at 18% levels, driven by MSME and retail
business
o Except for the gold portfolio, all other segments are seeing good traction
While gold portfolio is muted, the bank is trying hard to push traction in the
same
o Entire home loan, LAP and auto loans business is coming from the hub
Banking and Financial Services
8 Edelweiss Securities Limited
191 new employees were added during the quarter to support the retail drive
Management has maintained its NIMs guidance in the range of 2.85-2.90%
o While yield on advances is coming down, reducing cost of deposits is fundamental
to improving NIMs
o During Q2FY18, NIMs came in at 2.95%, with cumulative NIMs settling at 2.87%
Managements expects other income to be sustainable at a run-rate of INR2bn going
ahead
o During Q2FY18, other income of INR2.8bn includes INR260mn of interest received
on tax-refund (one-off) and INR590mn on sale of PSLC certificates
Given that the bank has fully recognized watch list accounts previously, slippages are
expected to normalize to INR1-1.5bn levels
o Management’s aim is to achieve provision coverage ratio of >60% by FY19E
Other highlights
While acknowledging that the bank has lagged behind, management stated that it is
working hard to drive better traction on the CASA front
Percentage of advances linked to MCLR-rates stood at 52%
CET-1 ratio stood at 10.39%, with risk weighted assets (RWA) at INR451.7bn
South Indian Bank
9 Edelweiss Securities Limited
Company Description
SIB, a private sector bank, was incorporated at Thrissur in Kerala, South India. The bank has
a pan- India presence with a network of over 851 branches and over 1370s ATMs across
India.
Current management’s efforts at improving the bank’s operating performance are visible
with improvement in return on assets (RoA) to 1.1% in FY13 from 0.1% in FY05. Over the
past few years, the bank has achieved considerable progress in terms of bringing
profitability focus among branches, re-energizing employees, improving asset quality, and
creating greater brand awareness and technology coverage. The employee compensation
has been linked to performance and union clout has diminished. The re-branding exercise of
bank has created greater brand re-call and awareness among customers. We believe the
present management is innovative and dynamic. Investment Theme
As highlighted in our note (Retail to drive growth), the strategic exercise—centralisation of
processes, getting more granular—has put SIB on a firm footing—propelling ability to
expand profit by > 30% CAGR and generate RoA/RoE of ~0.8%/13.5% by FY20E. At 1.0x
FY20E ABV, the stock is attractively positioned from the risk-reward perspective
Key Risks
System wide economic slowdown will lead to a sharp deterioration in asset quality and
lower than anticipated recoveries.
Slowdown in business growth is a key systematic risk for the bank as 70% of total
revenues are derived from net interest income. Being a mid-sized bank, it does not
have huge diversification option.
Disruption by employee union and the management’s inability to sustain pace of
reforms could cause concern.
Redemption in NRE deposit base will lead to rise in cost of funds thereby impacting
margin.
10 Edelweiss Securities Limited
Banking and Financial Services
Financial Statements
Income statement (INR mn)
Year to March FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E
Interest income 58,471 65,725 75,947 89,639
Interest expended 41,716 45,022 51,940 61,471
Net interest income 16,755 20,703 24,007 28,168
Non interest income 7,156 8,794 9,391 10,412
- Fee & forex income 1,004 1,242 1,428 1,644
- Misc. income 3,635 5,452 6,163 6,968
- Investment profits 2,517 2,100 1,800 1,800
Net revenue 23,910 29,497 33,399 38,580
Operating expense 11,764 13,281 15,046 16,746
- Employee exp 6,765 7,282 8,197 8,924
- Other opex 4,999 5,999 6,848 7,822
Preprovision profit 12,146 16,216 18,353 21,835
Provisions 6,144 10,362 7,500 8,834
Loan loss provisions 6,580 6,511 6,800 8,134
Investment depreciation 60 3,281 300 300
Other provisions (496) 570 400 400
Profit Before Tax 6,002 5,853 10,852 13,001
Less: Provision for Tax 2,077 1,990 3,690 4,420
Profit After Tax 3,925 3,863 7,162 8,580
Reported Profit 3,925 3,863 7,162 8,580
Adj. Diluted EPS (INR) 2.2 1.9 3.6 4.3
Dividend per share (DPS) 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.8
Dividend Payout Ratio(%) - 45.2 24.4 20.3
Growth ratios (%)
Year to March FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E
NII growth 11.0 23.6 16.0 17.3
Fees growth 3.4 23.6 15.0 15.2
Opex growth 2.5 12.9 13.3 11.3
PPOP growth 29.6 46.6 17.3 21.0
PPP growth 38.1 33.5 13.2 19.0
Provisions growth 66.2 68.7 (27.6) 17.8
Adjusted Profit 17.8 (1.6) 85.4 19.8
Operating ratios
Year to March FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E
Yield on advances 10.2 10.0 9.9 9.8
Yield on investments 6.4 6.4 6.7 6.9
Yield on assets 9.1 8.8 8.8 8.8
Cost of funds 6.5 6.1 6.2 6.2
Net interest margins 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.8
Cost of deposits 6.5 6.2 6.2 6.3
Cost of borrowings 7.5 7.4 7.4 7.4
Spread 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.6
Cost-income 49.2 45.0 45.0 43.4
Tax rate 34.6 34.0 34.0 34.0
Key Assumptions
Year to March FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E
Macro
GDP(Y-o-Y %) 6.6 6.5 7.1 7.6
Inflation (Avg) 4.5 3.8 4.5 5.0
Repo rate (exit rate) 6.3 6.0 6.0 6.5
USD/INR (Avg) 67.1 64.5 65.0 66.0
Sector
Credit growth 9.0 12.0 14.0 17.0
Deposit growth 14.0 12.0 13.0 14.0
CRR 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0
SLR 20.0 20.0 19.5 19.0
G-sec yield 6.5 6.5 7.0 7.1
Company
Op. metric assump. (%)
Yield on advances 10.2 10.0 9.9 9.8
Yield on investments 6.4 6.4 6.7 6.9
Yield on asset 9.1 8.8 8.8 8.8
Cost of funds 6.5 6.1 6.2 6.2
Net interest margins 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.8
Cost of deposits 6.5 6.2 6.2 6.3
Cost of borrowings 7.5 7.4 7.4 7.4
Spread 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.6
Tax rate (%) 34.6 34.0 34.0 34.0
Balance sheet assumption (%)
Credit growth 13.9 17.9 19.8 17.9
Deposit growth 18.7 11.2 17.6 17.2
SLR ratio 23.0 23.0 22.5 22.5
Low-cost deposits 23.8 25.3 25.6 25.9
Gross NPA ratio 2.5 3.3 3.3 3.0
Net NPA ratio 1.5 1.9 1.6 0.9
Net NPA / Equity 14.6 18.7 17.1 10.6
Capital adequacy 12.4 11.9 11.4 10.9
Incremental slippage 3.6 3.2 2.5 2.0
Provision coverage 41.3 43.7 53.3 69.7
11 Edelweiss Securities Limited
South Indian Bank
Peer comparison valuation
Market cap Diluted P/E (X) Price/ Adj. BV (X) ROAE (%)
Name (USD mn) FY18E FY19E FY18E FY19E FY18E FY19E
South Indian Bank 919 16.8 9.0 1.4 1.2 7.7 12.5
Axis Bank 22,691 32.1 16.3 2.3 2.1 7.3 12.2
DCB Bank 968 22.9 18.6 2.5 2.2 11.8 11.9
Federal Bank 3,497 19.5 15.6 1.9 1.7 10.6 10.9
HDFC Bank 75,923 26.2 21.6 4.7 4.0 18.9 19.5
ICICI Bank 31,507 18.5 13.4 2.7 2.4 10.8 13.9
IDFC Bank 3,384 15.8 13.5 1.4 1.3 9.0 9.7
IndusInd Bank 16,353 28.3 22.5 4.5 3.8 16.5 17.9
Karnataka Bank 955 8.9 7.4 0.9 0.8 9.6 10.8
Kotak Mahindra Bank 30,017 32.6 26.2 4.2 3.7 14.5 14.8
Yes Bank 12,282 18.5 13.8 3.2 2.7 17.6 20.2
Median - 19.5 15.6 2.5 2.2 10.8 12.5
AVERAGE - 21.8 16.2 2.7 2.4 12.2 14.0
Source: Edelweiss research
RoE decomposition (%)
Year to March FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E
Net int. income/assets 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.8
Fees/Assets 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.8
Invst. profits/Assets 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2
Net revenues/assets 3.7 4.0 3.9 3.8
Operating expense/assets (1.8) (1.8) (1.7) (1.7)
Provisions/assets (1.0) (1.4) (0.9) (0.9)
Taxes/assets (0.3) (0.3) (0.4) (0.4)
Total costs/assets (3.1) (3.4) (3.0) (3.0)
ROA 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.8
Equity/assets 6.5 6.8 6.7 6.3
ROAE (%) 9.4 7.7 12.5 13.5
Valuation parameters
Year to March FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E
Adj. Diluted EPS (INR) 2.2 1.9 3.6 4.3
Y-o-Y growth (%) (11.8) (11.4) 85.4 19.8
BV per share (INR) 25.5 27.3 30.0 33.5
Adj. BV per share (INR) 22.9 23.8 26.4 31.0
Diluted P/E (x) 14.9 16.8 9.0 7.6
Price/ Adj. BV (x) 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.0
Dividend Yield (%) 1.2 2.3 2.3 2.3
Balance sheet (INR mn)
As on 31st March FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E
Share capital 1,803 2,003 2,003 2,003
Reserves & Surplus 44,244 52,761 58,178 65,013
Net worth 46,047 54,764 60,181 67,015
Sub bonds/pref cap - 5,000 10,000 15,000
Deposits 661,175 735,265 864,444 1,013,142
Total Borrowings 19,578 19,578 19,578 19,578
Other liabilities 14,419 13,352 12,882 13,682
Total liabilities 741,218 827,959 967,084 1,128,416
Loans 463,895 547,396 656,875 775,112
Cash and Equivalents 38,877 42,458 48,469 56,754
Gilts 170,439 173,614 198,905 232,362
Others 23,858 26,455 28,873 31,534
Fixed assets 4,123 3,803 3,412 2,942
Other Assets 40,026 34,233 30,549 29,712
Total assets 741,218 827,959 967,084 1,128,416
Credit growth 13.9 17.9 19.8 17.9
Deposit growth 18.7 11.2 17.6 17.2
EA growth 18.5 13.3 18.1 17.4
SLR ratio 23.0 23.0 22.5 22.5
C-D ratio 71.5 75.8 77.3 77.7
Low-cost deposits 23.8 25.3 25.6 25.9
Provision coverage 41.3 43.7 53.3 69.7
Gross NPA ratio 2.5 3.3 3.3 3.0
Net NPA ratio 1.5 1.9 1.6 0.9
Incremental slippage 3.6 3.2 2.5 2.0
Net NPA / Equity 14.6 18.7 17.1 10.6
Capital adequacy 12.4 11.9 11.4 10.9
- Tier 1 10.9 10.4 9.9 9.4
12 Edelweiss Securities Limited
Banking and Financial Services
Holding - Top 10
Perc. Holding Perc. Holding
Yusuffal Musaliam Veetil 4.94 Lavender Investments 4.92
First Carlyle Ventures Mauritius 4.91 Life Insurance Corporation of India 4.70
ICICI Prudential Asset Management 2.73 CX Securities 2.61
Iva International Fund 2.55 International Value Advisers 2.17
Deutsche Sec Mauritius 1.75 GKFF Ventures 1.73
*as per last available data
Insider Trades
Reporting Data Acquired / Seller B/S Qty Traded
No Data Available
*in last one year
Bulk Deals Data Acquired / Seller B/S Qty Traded Price
15 May 2017 Db International Asia Ltd Sell 11000000 25.55
24 Jan 2017 Kotak Mahindra (International) Ltd Sell 28500000 21.20
24 Jan 2017 Lavender Investments Ltd Buy 28500000 21.20
*in last one year
Additional Data
Directors Data Salim Gangadharan Part time Chairman V G Mathew Managing Director & CEO
Francis Alapatt Director Ranjana Salgaocar Director
Sri. Parayil George John Tharakan Director K Thomas Jacob Director
Mohan E. Alapatt Director Dr. John Joseph Director
Achal Kumar Gupta Director
Auditors - Deloitte Haskins & Sells
*as per last annual report
13 Edelweiss Securities Limited
Company Absolute
reco
Relative
reco
Relative
risk
Company Absolute
reco
Relative
reco
Relative
Risk
Allahabad Bank HOLD SU M Axis Bank HOLD SP M
Bajaj Finserv HOLD SP L Bank of Baroda BUY SP M
Bharat Financial Inclusion BUY SO M Capital First BUY SO M
DCB Bank HOLD SP M Dewan Housing Finance BUY SO M
Equitas Holdings Ltd. BUY SO M Federal Bank BUY SP L
HDFC HOLD SP L HDFC Bank BUY SO L
ICICI Bank BUY SO L IDFC Bank HOLD SP L
Indiabulls Housing Finance BUY SP M IndusInd Bank BUY SP L
Karnataka Bank BUY SP M Kotak Mahindra Bank HOLD SP M
L&T FINANCE HOLDINGS LTD BUY SO M LIC Housing Finance BUY SP M
Magma Fincorp BUY SP M Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services HOLD SP M
Manappuram General Finance BUY SO H Max Financial Services BUY SO L
Multi Commodity Exchange of India BUY SP M Muthoot Finance BUY SO M
Oriental Bank Of Commerce HOLD SP L Power Finance Corp BUY SO M
Punjab National Bank BUY SP M Reliance Capital BUY SP M
Repco Home Finance BUY SO M Rural Electrification Corporation BUY SO M
Shriram City Union Finance BUY SO M Shriram Transport Finance BUY SO L
South Indian Bank BUY SP M State Bank of India BUY SP L
Union Bank Of India HOLD SP M Yes Bank BUY SO M
RATING & INTERPRETATION
ABSOLUTE RATING
Ratings Expected absolute returns over 12 months
Buy More than 15%
Hold Between 15% and - 5%
Reduce Less than -5%
RELATIVE RETURNS RATING
Ratings Criteria
Sector Outperformer (SO) Stock return > 1.25 x Sector return
Sector Performer (SP) Stock return > 0.75 x Sector return
Stock return < 1.25 x Sector return
Sector Underperformer (SU) Stock return < 0.75 x Sector return
Sector return is market cap weighted average return for the coverage universe
within the sector
RELATIVE RISK RATING
Ratings Criteria
Low (L) Bottom 1/3rd percentile in the sector
Medium (M) Middle 1/3rd percentile in the sector
High (H) Top 1/3rd percentile in the sector
Risk ratings are based on Edelweiss risk model
SECTOR RATING
Ratings Criteria
Overweight (OW) Sector return > 1.25 x Nifty return
Equalweight (EW) Sector return > 0.75 x Nifty return
Sector return < 1.25 x Nifty return
Underweight (UW) Sector return < 0.75 x Nifty return
14 Edelweiss Securities Limited
Banking and Financial Services
Edelweiss Securities Limited, Edelweiss House, off C.S.T. Road, Kalina, Mumbai – 400 098.
Board: (91-22) 4009 4400, Email: [email protected]
Aditya Narain
Head of Research
Coverage group(s) of stocks by primary analyst(s): Banking and Financial Services
Allahabad Bank, Axis Bank, Bharat Financial Inclusion, Bajaj Finserv, Bank of Baroda, Capital First, DCB Bank, Dewan Housing Finance, Equitas Holdings Ltd., Federal Bank, HDFC, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, IDFC Bank, Indiabulls Housing Finance, IndusInd Bank, Karnataka Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, LIC Housing Finance, L&T FINANCE HOLDINGS LTD, Max Financial Services, Multi Commodity Exchange of India, Manappuram General Finance, Magma Fincorp, Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services, Muthoot Finance, Oriental Bank Of Commerce, Punjab National Bank, Power Finance Corp, Reliance Capital, Rural Electrification Corporation, Repco Home Finance, State Bank of India, Shriram City Union Finance, Shriram Transport Finance, South Indian Bank, Union Bank Of India, Yes Bank
Distribution of Ratings / Market Cap
Edelweiss Research Coverage Universe
Rating Distribution* 161 67 11 240 * 1stocks under review
Market Cap (INR) 156 62 11
Date Company Title Price (INR) Recos
Recent Research
28-Dec-17 BFSI Turning interest rates table: Impact analysis; Sector Update
26-Dec-17 KMB Building blocks in place for profitable scale; Visit Note
1010 Buy
22-Dec-17 Banking (RESOLUTION TRACKER #4)
Expert speak: Bankruptcy Code progressively evolving; Sector Update
> 50bn Between 10bn and 50 bn < 10bn
Buy Hold Reduce Total
Rating Interpretation
Buy appreciate more than 15% over a 12-month period
Hold appreciate up to 15% over a 12-month period
Reduce depreciate more than 5% over a 12-month period
Rating Expected to
-
149
297
446
594
743
Jan
-14
Feb
-14
Mar
-14
Ap
r-1
4
May
-14
Jun
-14
Jul-
14
Au
g-1
4
Sep
-14
Oct
-14
No
v-1
4
De
c-1
4
(IN
R)
One year price chart
10
15
20
25
30
35
Jan
-17
Feb
-17
Mar
-17
Ap
r-1
7
May
-17
Jun
-17
Jul-
17
Au
g-1
7
Sep
-17
Oct
-17
No
v-1
7
De
c-1
7
Jan
-18
(IN
R)
South Indian Bank
15 Edelweiss Securities Limited
South Indian Bank
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16 Edelweiss Securities Limited
Banking and Financial Services
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17 Edelweiss Securities Limited
South Indian Bank
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