Resources and needs for technical information to support a 2008-13 Strategic Plan

Technical Analysis ForumTechnical Analysis Forum

May 22-23, 2007May 22-23, 2007

Partnership

• The WRAP partnership has facilitated many successful The WRAP partnership has facilitated many successful dialogues on air quality issuesdialogues on air quality issues

• These exchanges have included the regulated and These exchanges have included the regulated and environmental communities, FLMs, EPA, tribes, and states environmental communities, FLMs, EPA, tribes, and states

• Shared experiences and exchange of cultural values have Shared experiences and exchange of cultural values have enhanced air quality efforts by states and tribes to develop enhanced air quality efforts by states and tribes to develop regulatory programs and strategies that benefit the regulatory programs and strategies that benefit the environment and solve problems for both tribes and statesenvironment and solve problems for both tribes and states

Tribal Caucus/TDDWG list of issues from Tribal Caucus/TDDWG list of issues from September 2006 Board MeetingSeptember 2006 Board Meeting

• Transport/characterization/impacts of PM in rural communitiesTransport/characterization/impacts of PM in rural communities

• PM health impacts and risk analysisPM health impacts and risk analysis

• Dust emissions and air quality modelingDust emissions and air quality modeling

• Climate change – emissions inventoriesClimate change – emissions inventories

• Oil and gas development and production emissionsOil and gas development and production emissions

• Atmospheric deposition – mercury and sulfur/nitrogenAtmospheric deposition – mercury and sulfur/nitrogen

• PSD consumption – systematic tracking and managementPSD consumption – systematic tracking and management

• Tribal emissions and air quality dataTribal emissions and air quality data

• Ozone – especially rural areasOzone – especially rural areas

Scientific and Scientific and Technical Technical

FoundationFoundationMonitoringMonitoring• EmissionsEmissions• Ambient air qualityAmbient air quality• Health and exposureHealth and exposure• EcosystemsEcosystems• MeteorologyMeteorology

AnalysisAnalysis• Models (e.g. Models (e.g. air air quality, quality, emissions)emissions)• EconomicsEconomics• Health and Health and ecological ecological risk risk assessmentassessmentResearchResearch

• Public Public health and health and ecosystem studiesecosystem studies• Laboratory Laboratory studies studies (e.g., air (e.g., air chemistry, chemistry, toxicology)toxicology)

DevelopmentDevelopment• Source Source control control technologytechnology• Monitoring Monitoring

technologytechnology

2.) Designing and Implementing Control 2.) Designing and Implementing Control StrategiesStrategies

3.) Assessing Status and 3.) Assessing Status and Measuring Measuring

ProgressProgress

1.) Setting Standards 1.) Setting Standards and Objectivesand Objectives

• Emissions trends• Air quality trends• Health effects trends• Ecosystem trends• Institutional accountability

• Emissions standards• Ambient air quality standards• Reducing acid deposition• Reducing regional pollution• Protecting visibility

• Source control technology requirements• Emissions caps and trading• Voluntary or incentive-based programs• Energy efficiency• Pollution prevention (e.g., product substitution and process alteration)• Compliance assurance

Source:National Academy of Science

http://www.nap.edu/books/0309089328/html

2007 Haze SIPNarrative

Measures

Visibility conditions(2000-04 baseline) Current Natural

Emissions (mostly 2002) Point Area Mobile Fire, Dust, et cetera International

Emissions (2018)Visibility Goals (2018)2013 SIP Check Approach Monitoring Data Trends Emissions Trends In-state* All contributing states

Other (fire, dust, international)

On-The-BooksSpecific to RHR BART Other point ? Area ? Smoke Management ?

Same categories as 2002, based on Federal Programs, otherState rules, plus BART and any additional measures (growth/controlprojections for some categories, others held constant)

Estimated using modeling of the “Reasonable Progress” strategies for most and least impaired days, then adjusted using monitoring Relative Response Factors – exact value of final visibility goals are SIP decisions by each state

Review completeness and trends in monitoring dataBased on latest & best regional emissions inventories: 1) Examine how trends in various emissions types and scales compares with the narrative prepared for SIP submittal* 2) Examine what is “now” On-The-Books and re-project 2018 3) Adjust SIP (measures and / or goal)

Identify needs for comprehensive regional emissions tracking and complete/representative Class I area monitoring data

Assess post-2013 need for additional regional analysis and planning to begin now for 2018 SIP submittal

These measures may include non-BART emissions limits, emission limits on source categories, and modification to smoke management plans, et cetera.

* – This analysis for the 2013 SIP check will establish accountability for emissions reductions/management strategies for that state identified in each 2007 haze SIP – did they track as anticipated? The 2007 SIP should require the state to complete a review of its emissions and spell out the circumstances of how a SIP revision prior to 2018 would be triggered. If things have changed enough, that State needs to re-do the projections based on its changed emissions and either re-affirm that it will be on target for 2018, or make the needed changes to emissions strategies and / or the SIP RP goals written into each state’s 2007 SIP.

What kinds of regional technical work and What kinds of regional technical work and capabilities have been completed to date?capabilities have been completed to date?

Needs beyond 2007…Needs beyond 2007…

What Emissions Analysis & Control Work has the WRAP Done?

• Diverse interests working together through the WRAP have made great progress to reduce air pollution across the West in recent years. Some of the highlights include:– Emissions of sulfur dioxide from Western coal-fired power plants declined 40%

between 1998 and 2005. A reduction of ~50% is projected with full implementation of state and tribal Regional Haze Plans over the next ten years.

– Working through the WRAP, the states of Arizona, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah and Wyoming submitted the nation’s first State Implementation Plans under the Regional Haze Rule. These plans implement the recommendations of the Grand Canyon Commission.

– New EPA standards for engines and fuel will greatly reduce emissions from motor vehicles and off-road equipment in coming years. Mobile sources are the largest source of nitrogen oxide emissions in the West. These new standards will reduce mobile source emissions of nitrogen oxides by 70% over the next 15 years, even as the West continues to grow.

– Western states and tribes, working closely with federal land managers, continue to improve their smoke management programs to ensure that air quality impacts are minimized when prescribed burns are necessary on public and private land. The WRAP is implementing a fire tracking system to help land managers and air quality planners manage controllable smoke impacts on a regional basis.

WRAP region Emissions Analysis & Control Work, continued

• The state Regional Haze Plans due to EPA in December 2007 will address the long-standing issue of emissions from grandfathered sources. The sulfur dioxide emission reductions mentioned above are part of the solution. The 2007 regional haze plans will also implement Best Available Retrofit Technology (BART) for nitrogen oxide emissions.

• In 2005, the WRAP completed the first-ever regional inventory of emissions from oil and gas sources. Phase II of that effort is now underway. Phase II will yield better estimates of current and future emissions and identify ways to reduce emissions from this sector.

• WRAP is providing direct assistance to state and local governments and fleet owners in an effort to reduce diesel emissions through retrofit programs. 

Challenges Remain• The West is a vibrant and rapidly growing region. Even as we make

progress on some air quality issues, new challenges emerge.

• Population growth, increased energy development, and tighter federal standards must be addressed if we are to see continued air quality improvements and meet the requirements of the Clean Air Act.

• In recent years, drought and warmer temperatures have resulted in degraded air quality due to increased dust emissions and wildfires.

• The members of WRAP (states, tribes, and federal agencies) along with key stakeholders (industry, environmental interests, local governments, and academia) remain committed to working together through WRAP to address these challenges. States and tribes are also using the WRAP as a forum to share information on climate change and greenhouse gas emissions, including development of a greenhouse gas inventory and a voluntary registry.

Technical air quality studies using WRAP data – a working listTechnical air quality studies using WRAP data – a working list

• RoRocky cky MMountain National Park Sulfur ountain National Park Sulfur aand nd NNitrogen itrogen SStudy (RoMANS) – tudy (RoMANS) – National Park Service and State of ColoradoNational Park Service and State of Colorado

• Rural Ozone Impacts from Oil & Gas emissions in the 4 Corners Region – Rural Ozone Impacts from Oil & Gas emissions in the 4 Corners Region – NPS modeling studyNPS modeling study

• Rural Ozone Impacts from Oil & Gas in northeast UT/southwest WY – States Rural Ozone Impacts from Oil & Gas in northeast UT/southwest WY – States of Utah and Wyomingof Utah and Wyoming

• Emissions reductions options analysis – 4 Corners AQ Task Force Emissions reductions options analysis – 4 Corners AQ Task Force Cumulative Effects WGCumulative Effects WG

• Pilot Dust Regional Haze SIP for Salt Creek Wilderness – State of New Pilot Dust Regional Haze SIP for Salt Creek Wilderness – State of New MexicoMexico

• Nested BART CalPuff modeling using regional modeling data as background Nested BART CalPuff modeling using regional modeling data as background – State of North Dakota– State of North Dakota

• 2018 emissions projections as basis for Columbia Gorge air quality planning2018 emissions projections as basis for Columbia Gorge air quality planning

• Providing consistent, free data for permit analyses by sources and consulting Providing consistent, free data for permit analyses by sources and consulting firmsfirms

WRAP Technical Support HistoryWRAP Technical Support History

• 15+ years of collaboration15+ years of collaboration

• Analyses of last 5+ years for haze planning provide Analyses of last 5+ years for haze planning provide a broad basis for:a broad basis for:• Future studiesFuture studies• Continued regional analyses at various scalesContinued regional analyses at various scales• Addressing emerging topicsAddressing emerging topics

• In-kind support and staff participation by members invaluableIn-kind support and staff participation by members invaluable• Nature and content of studies are member-defined Nature and content of studies are member-defined

• WRAP members will face ongoing air management WRAP members will face ongoing air management issuesissues• Changes to health standards and exposure measuresChanges to health standards and exposure measures• Multiple values of ecosystem and aesthetic protection Multiple values of ecosystem and aesthetic protection • How can WRAP adapt, or enhance, technical services to How can WRAP adapt, or enhance, technical services to

meet these needs in the future?meet these needs in the future?

In addition to Regional Haze, WRAP members face a In addition to Regional Haze, WRAP members face a variety of air quality management challengesvariety of air quality management challenges

• Some are locally-oriented such as exceeding the 24-Some are locally-oriented such as exceeding the 24-hour PM standard along the Wasatch Front or other hour PM standard along the Wasatch Front or other populated areaspopulated areas– What is the regional contribution to a local problem?What is the regional contribution to a local problem?

• Others have been scoped out as sub-regionalOthers have been scoped out as sub-regional– 4 Corners AQ Task Force, NE UT/SW WY rural ozone, et 4 Corners AQ Task Force, NE UT/SW WY rural ozone, et

ceteracetera

• Also important to continue to analyze and Also important to continue to analyze and understand the regional response to emissions understand the regional response to emissions control and management programs over timecontrol and management programs over time– Haze, ozone, acid deposition, mercury, greenhouse gases, Haze, ozone, acid deposition, mercury, greenhouse gases,

et ceteraet cetera

WRAP has built a useful and robust WRAP has built a useful and robust technical support capabilitytechnical support capability

• Monitoring data analysis effortsMonitoring data analysis efforts

• Emissions data at appropriate spatial, temporal, Emissions data at appropriate spatial, temporal, and chemistry scalesand chemistry scales– Tribal Emissions Inventory Software Solution (TEISS)Tribal Emissions Inventory Software Solution (TEISS)

– Emissions Data Management System (EDMS)Emissions Data Management System (EDMS)

– Fire Emissions Tracking System (FETS)Fire Emissions Tracking System (FETS)

• Modeling assistance by RMCModeling assistance by RMC

• Visualization and data analysis of regionally Visualization and data analysis of regionally consistent data and information in the TSSconsistent data and information in the TSS

TSS GoalsTSS Goals

• Provide a single web-based location for:Provide a single web-based location for:– Access and display of regional haze technical dataAccess and display of regional haze technical data

– Reference location to support individual regional Reference location to support individual regional haze planshaze plans

• Document technical methods for regional haze Document technical methods for regional haze plansplans

TSS GoalsTSS Goals

• Ongoing tracking and assessmentOngoing tracking and assessment– Emissions reductionsEmissions reductions

– Monitoring data for regional haze and other air Monitoring data for regional haze and other air quality programsquality programs

• Adapt to and serve future regional technical Adapt to and serve future regional technical needs of WRAP membersneeds of WRAP members

WRAP Technical Data Information CentersWRAP Technical Data Information CentersVisibility Information Exchange Web System (VIEWS): VIEWS provides on-line access to monitoring data, research results and special studies related to visibility. http://vista.cira.colostate.edu/views/

Regional Modeling Center: The WRAP’s Regional Modeling Center at the University of California Riverside provides state and tribal agencies with sophisticated modeling of regional haze in the Western United States. http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/

Emissions Data Management System: An emission inventory data warehouse for states and tribes. The system provides a consistent, complete and regional approach to emissions data management and tracking. http://www.wrapedms.org/

Causes of Haze Assessment: A detailed analysis of ambient monitoring data for regional haze in the WRAP region. http://www.coha.dri.edu/

The Technical Support System integrates a number of different information resources under one web-based umbrella. http://vista.cira.colostate.edu/tss

WRAP Data Centers Support the TSSWRAP Data Centers Support the TSS

Data CentersData CentersPlanning/Decision Planning/Decision

Tool & Summary DataTool & Summary Data

Haze monitoring Haze monitoring datadata

Modeling analysis Modeling analysis resultsresults

Emissions dataEmissions data

Monitoring Monitoring analysis resultsanalysis results

What happens next?What happens next?

• Haze SIPs/FIPs + BART are due December 2007 into early ‘08

• WRAP role(s) beyond regional haze?

• Present recommendations in 2008-13 Strategic Plan

– From WRAP Board

– From TDDWG and Tribal Caucus

– From Technical Forums

– Partnership