Resilience and Change in Arctic Terrestrial Ecosystems: A Key Role in the Arctic System Terry Chapin University of Alaska Fairbanks

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Resilience and Change in Arctic Terrestrial Ecosystems: A Key Role in the Arctic System Terry Chapin University of Alaska Fairbanks Slide 2 Slide 3 Chapin and Whiteman 1998 Slide 4 Rapid Climatic Change Mark Serreze, John Walsh Slide 5 Andrea Lloyd Slide 6 1949 Chandler River, 50 miles S. of Umiat: Sturm, Racine and Tape: Fifty Years of Change in Arctic Alaskan Shrub Abundance Shrub density has increased 1949 2000 Matthew Sturm Slide 7 Indigenous observations suggests that shrub expansion is widespread in the North American Arctic Slide 8 Slide 9 Gunderson and Holling 2002 No resilience Complete resilience Complete instability The real world Slide 10 Is the Arctic a fragile system? Somewhat! Slide 11 What are the triggers for major changes? What are the limits to resilience? Slide 12 Chapin and Whiteman 1998 Slide 13 Thawing of Permafrost Slide 14 Hinzman Hydrology is changing Slide 15 Discharge is increasing in major Euroasian rivers these 6 rivers account for half of river flux to the Arctic Ocean Peterson et al. Slide 16 1949 Chandler River, 50 miles S. of Umiat: Sturm, Racine and Tape: Fifty Years of Change in Arctic Alaskan Shrub Abundance Vegetation is changing 1949 2000 Matthew Sturm Slide 17 Vegetation change warms the local climate Slide 18 Model simulations suggest warmer summers Following vegetation change Chapin, Lynch et al. Slide 19 Arctic Summer Warming Trends Slide 20 Area burned in W. North America has doubled in last 20 years Kasischki Slide 21 Species effects on climate in boreal forest Baldocchi et al. 2000 Slide 22 The Earth System is Changing What can we do? Slide 23 Identify problems and opportunities Mitigate Adapt Slide 24 Slide 25 Global problems Slide 26 Regional problems and opportunities (examples) Problems Permafrost thaw Increased fire Changing economy Changing institutions Globally diverse problems Opportunities Identify critical areas Mitigate regional warming? New options available Fresh look for solutions More options for solutions Slide 27 University of Alaskas Integrative Graduate Education and Research Traineeship Program (IGERT) Terry Chapin and Gary Kofinas Regional Resilience and Adaptation Slide 28 Focal issue of program How can we build a sustainable future, if the global environment is directionally changing ecologically, economically, politically, and culturally? Slide 29 Our underlying philosophy Solutions to regional problems must be Ecologically, economically, socially, and culturally sustainable Must treat region as a system with an integrated set of variables Slide 30 2002s entering group 15 Graduate Students 8 Biology 4 Anthropology 1 Resource Mngt. 2 Interdisciplinary 50% AK residents 30% minority students