Residential Real Estate Market Residential Real Estate Market

MMR, NCR, BENGALURU, CHENNAI, HYDERABAD, PUNE, AHMEDABAD AND KOLKATA

Q4 2018-2019

Residential Real Estate Market Residential Real Estate Market

MMR, NCR, BENGALURU, CHENNAI, HYDERABAD, PUNE, AHMEDABAD AND KOLKATA

Q4 FY 18-19 Quarterly Market Movement

• New launches across top-8 cities increased by 43% QoQ with

quarter 51,687 units were launched, during Q4 FY 18-19 has

• Maximum number of new launches were in Rs 25 lac – Rs

one-third of total units launched during the quarter.

• Tier I cities in March quarter (Q4 FY 18-19) have recorded

compared to last quarter when the sales was 69,830 units

• Five out of eight Tier I cities witnessed a drop in sales this

Preview

• Five out of eight Tier I cities witnessed a drop in sales this

by Pune (8%) and MMR (7%).

• Of the three cities showing upward trend in quarterly sales,

followed by Hyderabad (13%) and Ahmedabad (4%).

• Like last quarter, close to 54% of the sales of this quarter

segment is supported by the government initiatives.

• Prices have remained unchanged largely across the top cities

Hyderabad.

• Unsold units have witnessed a growth of 2% on QoQ, the

with maximum launches being noticed in MMR. While in last

has seen the launch of 73,716 units.

Rs 50 lac bracket and the segment accounted for more than

recorded sales of 68,225 units exhibiting a marginal dip of 2% as

units.

this quarter. Maximum drop was observed in NCR (9%) followed

2

this quarter. Maximum drop was observed in NCR (9%) followed

sales, maximum QoQ growth was witnessed in Kolkata (33%)

quarter were contributed by sub-50 lac segment. Growth in this

cities with some upward movement being recorded only in

current unsold across top 8 cities stands 9,66,591 units.

FY 2018 TO FY 2019 COMPARISON

Market revival visible in the strong recovery from 2018, steady growth expectations for the future.

FY 2018 TO FY 2019 COMPARISON

Market revival visible in the strong recovery from 2018, steady growth expectations for

3

Financial Year 2018 VS 2019Sales in top-8 cities have grown 5% in last one year; Hyderabad and Kolkata lead the pack

City Sales

FY 2018 FY 2019 % Growth

MMR 65,340 70,794 8%

NCR 62,240 54,174 -13%

Pune 41,220 43,739 6%

Bangalore 30,331 34,625 14%

Ahmedabad 26,489 29,453 11%

Hyderabad 14,922 17,867 20%

Kolkata 12,105 14,565 20%

Chennai 12,035 12,888 7%

Total Tier 1 264,682 278,105 5%Total Tier 1 264,682 278,105 5%

• Sales across Tier I cities have grown by 5% during FY 2019 as compared to FY 2018. MMR has posted highest sales of 70,794 unitotal sales in Tier I cities) followed by NCR with 54,174 units contributing 19.5% of total sales.

• Hyderabad and Kolkata witnessed maximum growth of 20% each followed by Bangalore with 14% increase in sales numbers. NCR is tcity which showed a 13% drop in sales compared to last year.

• Pune has shown the maximum growth in new launches in Tier I cities followed by Bangalore and Hyderabad.

• FY 17-18 witnessed lot of policy changes which dampened the market sentiments, FY 18faced the distress in terms of cash crunch after the leading infrastructure lender IL&FS defaulted in Septother NBFCs specially the ones focusing on real estate.

• Despite this the market floated through and saw revival in terms of sales as well as new launches and has a positive outlook expectations.

8 cities have grown 5% in last one year; Hyderabad and Kolkata lead the pack

New Launches

% Growth FY 2018 FY 2019 % Growth

8% 41,340 66,710 61%

13% 21,229 27,620 30%

6% 14,769 45,158 206%

14% 15,863 31,112 96%

11% 10,515 18,494 76%

20% 9,360 17,644 89%

20% 9,423 14,592 55%

7% 10,027 16,573 65%

5% 132,526 237,903 80%

4

5% 132,526 237,903 80%

Sales across Tier I cities have grown by 5% during FY 2019 as compared to FY 2018. MMR has posted highest sales of 70,794 units (25.5% of total sales in Tier I cities) followed by NCR with 54,174 units contributing 19.5% of total sales.

Hyderabad and Kolkata witnessed maximum growth of 20% each followed by Bangalore with 14% increase in sales numbers. NCR is the only

Pune has shown the maximum growth in new launches in Tier I cities followed by Bangalore and Hyderabad.

18 witnessed lot of policy changes which dampened the market sentiments, FY 18-19 saw some revival in the first quarter but then faced the distress in terms of cash crunch after the leading infrastructure lender IL&FS defaulted in Sept-18 shaking the investor confidence in

Despite this the market floated through and saw revival in terms of sales as well as new launches and has a positive outlook for future

Q4 18-19 MARKET PERFORMANCE19 MARKET PERFORMANCE

5

Sales (Units)YOY

Q4 17-18 Q3 18-19 Q4 18-19

Ahmedabad 6,776 7,385 7,695 14%

Bangalore 8,197 8,721 8,529 4%

Chennai 3,524 3,377 3,309 -6%

Hyderabad 4,242 4,522 5,089 20%

Kolkata 2,940 3,412 4,530 54%

MMR 17,031 17,938 16,640 -2%

NCR 15,312 13,256 12,115 -21%

Pune 11,020 11,219 10,318 -6%

8 Cities 69,042 69,830 68,225 -1%

Sales Performance in Major Cities of India

Ahmedabad Bangalore Chennai Hyderabad Kolkata MMR NCR

6,776

8,197

3,524

4,242

2,940

17,031

15,312

11,020

7,385

8,721

3,377

4,522

3,412

17,938

13,256

11,219

7,695

8,529

3,309

5,089

4,530

16,640

12,115

10,318 Q4 FY 18

Q3 FY 18

Q4 FY 17

QOQ

4%

-2%

-2%

13%

33%

-7%

-9%

-8%

-2%

QoQ

• Sales across the Tier I cities have decreased

marginally by 2% with maximum dip in NCR

(9%) followed by Pune (8%), MMR (7%)

followed by Bangalore and Chennai(2%).

•Performance of Kolkata, Hyderabad and

Ahmedabad increased by 33%, 13% and 4%

respectively.NCR Pune

YoY

•Upward movement was noticed in Kolkata

(54%) and Hyderabad (20%). Pune too

witnessed a growth of 14%.

• Sales in NCR witnessed a decline of 21%.

6

Q4 FY 18-19

Q3 FY 18-19

Q4 FY 17-18

Unsold Stock (Units)YOY

Q4 17-18 Q3 18-19 Q4 18-19

Ahmedabad 68,013 69,340 68,430 1%

Bangalore 99,785 102,443 104,947 5%

Chennai 69,102 76,269 79,646 15%

Hyderabad 38,559 42,658 44,795 16%

Kolkata 50,946 60,286 56,841 12%

MMR 265,582 271,185 283,055 7%

NCR 213,996 200,090 196,293 -8%

Pune 120,633 123,524 132,584 10%

8 Cities 926,616 945,795 966,591 4%

Unsold Stock

283300

Q4 17-18 Q3 18-19 Q4 18-19

68

100

69

39

51

266

214

69

102

76

43

60

271

200

68

10580

4557

283

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Ahmedabad Bangalore Chennai Hyderabad Kolkata MMR NCR

Un

sold

(Th

ou

san

ds

un

its)

YOY QOQ

1% -1%

5% 2%

15% 4%

16% 5%

12% -6%

7% 4%

8% -2%

10% 7%

4% 2%

QoQ

• Unsold stock increased in Pune (7%),

Hyderabad (5%), Chennai (4%) and MMR

(4%).

• Amongst the cities that witnessed a dip were

Kolkata (6%), NCR (2%) and Ahmedabad

(1%).

YoY

• Unsold stock in Tier I cities increased by 4%

on YoY basis.

• Hyderabad witnessed a 16% increase which

is the highest followed by Chennai, Kolkata

and Pune showing 15%, 12% and 10%

respectively.

• Single digit growth was observed in MMR

(7%), Bangalore (5%) and Ahmedabad (1%).

NCR witnessed a decline of 8%.

121

200

124

196

133

NCR Pune

7

Months InventoryYOY

Q4 17-18 Q3 18-19 Q4 18-19

Ahmedabad 30 28 27 -10%

Bangalore 37 35 37 0%

Chennai 59 68 72 22%

Hyderabad 27 28 26 -4%

Kolkata 52 53 38 -27%

MMR 47 45 51 9%

NCR 42 45 49 17%

Pune 33 33 39 18%

8 Cities 40 41 43 8%

Months Inventory

Q4 17-18 Q3 18-19 Q4 18-19

30

37

59

27

5247

42

28

35

68

28

53

45 45

27

37

72

26

38

51

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Ahmedabad Bangalore Chennai Hyderabad Kolkata MMR NCR

Mo

nth

s In

ven

tory

(M

on

ths)

Q4 17-18 Q3 18-19 Q4 18-19

QOQ

-4%

6%

6%

-7%

-28%

13%

9%

18%

5%

QoQ

• Months inventory increased by 5% across Tier

I cities and reached 43 months in Q4 18-19.

• Months inventory increased in Pune (18%),

MMR (13%), NCR (9%), Bangalore (6%) and

Chennai (6%).

• Months inventory of Kolkata declined by 28%

while that of Hyderabad and Ahmedabad

dropped by 7% and 4%.

YoY

• Overall months inventory increased by 8% on

YoY basis.

• An efficient market maintains 8-12 months of

inventory. An inventory overhang of 41

months indicates a downside pressure on

prices across all the major cities in India.

8

33

45

33

49

39

NCR Pune

13

,16

81

3,1

44

12

,89

6

14,000

Q4 17-18 Q3 18-19 Q4 18-19

Price (Rs/Sq.ft)YOY

Q4 17-18 Q3 18-19 Q4 18-19

Ahmedabad 3,221 3,298 3,286 2%

Bangalore 5,530 5,443 5,467 -1%

Chennai 5,124 5,057 5,065 -1%

Hyderabad 4,601 4,863 5,047 10%

Kolkata 4,436 4,261 4,283 -3%

MMR 13,168 13,144 12,896 -2%

NCR 4,781 4,656 4,645 -3%

Pune 5,209 5,227 5,231 0%

8 Cities 6,810 6,775 6,774 -1%

Movement in Price

3,2

21

5,5

30

5,1

24

4,6

01

4,4

36

4,7

81

5,2

09

3,2

98

5,4

43

5,0

57

4,8

63

4,2

61

4,6

56

3,2

86

5,4

67

5,0

65

5,0

47

4,2

83

12

,89

6

4,6

45

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

Wt.

Avg

. Rat

e (

Rs.

PSF

.)

QOQ

0%

0%

0%

4%

0%

-2%

0%

0%

0%

QoQ

• In Q4 18-19, the weighted average price

across Tier I cities remained almost

stagnant as compared with previous

quarter.

• Prices in Hyderabad alone improved by 4%.

• MMR witnessed a dip of 2%, while prices in

all the other cities remained stagnant.

YoY

5,2

09 6

,81

0

5,2

27 6

,77

5

5,2

31 6

,77

4

YoY

• Weighted average price across Tier I cities

dipped marginally by 1% as compared to an

year ago.

• Hyderabad (10%) and Ahmedabad (2%) saw

an increase in prices, while prices in Pune

remained constant.

9

Q4 17-18 Q1 18-19 Q2 18-19 Q3 18-19 Q4 18-19

Less than 25 Lac

12,525 14,186 11,816 11,426 11,307 -

25 Lac-50 Lac 24,152 25,252 27,138 25,772 25,347

50Lac -1Cr 20,679 19,984 19,926 20,893 20,367

1Cr - 2Cr 7,816 6,887 7,818 8,301 7,765

2Cr+ 3,870 3,388 3,655 3,438 3,439 -

Total 69,042 69,697 70,353 69,830 68,225

Sales (Units) Trend in various Cost Brackets – Q4 18

11% 10% 11% 12%

6% 5% 5% 5%

90%

100%

18% 20% 17% 16%

35%36% 39% 37%

30%29% 28% 30%

11% 10% 11% 12%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Q4 17-18 Q1 18-19 Q2 18-19 Q3 18-19

Less than Rs 25 Lac Rs 25 - 50 Lac Rs 50 Lac - 1 Cr. Rs 1 Cr. - 2 Cr.

YoY QoQ

-10% -1%

5% -2%

-2% -3%

-1% -6%

-11% 0%

-1% -2%

-19

11%

5%

• Sales in affordable segment (less than Rs 25

lac) decreased by 1% on a QoQ basis and by

10% on YoY basis.

• Sales in the cost bracket of Rs. 25 to 50 (lac

decreased by 2% on a QoQ basis while it

increased by 5% on YoY basis.

• Sales in the cost bracket of Rs. 50 lac – 1 cr.

decreased by 3% on a QoQ basis and by 2%

17%

37%

30%

11%

Q4 18-19

2 Cr. >Rs 2 Cr.

10

decreased by 3% on a QoQ basis and by 2%

on YoY basis

• Sales in luxury segment (Rs 1Cr – Rs 2Cr)

decreased by 6% on QoQ basis and by 1% on

YoY basis.

• Sales in ultra luxury segment (above Rs 2 Cr.)

remained stagnant on a QoQ basis and

decreased by 11% on YoY basis.

Ahmedabad Bangalore Chennai Hyderabad Kolkata MMR NCR

Less than 25 Lacs

2,423 297 543 139 1,457 2,597 2,392

25 Lacs-50 Lacs

3,132 2,676 1,422 1,023 1,938 4,812 5,107

50Lacs -1Cr 1,410 4,059 936 2,655 845 4,692 2,895

1Cr - 2Cr 581 1,052 282 975 186 2,911 1,215

2Cr+ 149 445 126 297 104 1,628 506

Total 7,695 8,529 3,309 5,089 4,530 16,640 12,115

City wise Sales (Units) Distribution in various Cost Brackets

8%12%

9%4%

10%

2% 5% 4% 6%2%

10%4%

90%

100%

31%

3%16%

3%

32%

16% 20%

41%

31%

43%

20%

43%

29%

42%

18%

48%

28%

52%

19%

28%

24%

12%9%

19%17%

10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Less than Rs 25 Lac Rs 25 - 50 Lac Rs 50 Lac - 1 Cr. Rs 1 Cr. - 2 Cr.

NCR Pune 8 Cities

2,392 1,459 11,307

5,107 5,237 25,347

2,895 2,875 20,367

1,215 563 7,765

506 184 3,439

12,115 10,318 68,225

Brackets – Q4 18-19

5%11%

2% 5%

• The contribution of affordable segment

(<Rs.25 Lacs) to the overall sales in eight Tier I

cities stands at 17%, with 44% sales in the

segment coming from MMR and Ahmedabad.

• Rs. 25 Lacs – 50 Lacs segment seems to be the

most preferred cost bracket with sales of

25,347 units (37% of total sales), and

maximum demand stemming from NCR and

Pune.

11

14% 17%

51%37%

28%

30%

11%

2 Cr. Rs >2 Cr.

• Cost range of Rs. 50 Lacs – 1 Cr. Is second

most preferred ,contributes 30% of total sales.

• Sales in ultra luxury segment (>Rs2Cr.) have

dipped and only makes 5% to the total Tier-1

cities’ sales.

• MMR recorded the maximum number of unit

sales with a contribution of 16,640 units

(24%), followed by NCR with 12,115 units

(18%) and Pune with 10,318 (15%).

Ahmedabad Bangalore Chennai Hyderabad Kolkata MMR NCR

Less than 25 Lac

928 399 2,231 224 1,994 6,681 4,153

25 Lac-50 Lac 2,038 3,139 2,492 668 1,323 6,911 264

50Lac -1Cr 1,189 3,827 1,357 3,950 698 5,669 1,246

1Cr - 2Cr 69 808 178 410 20 3,468 767

2Cr+ 0 187 39 464 0 804 463

Total 4,224 8,360 6,297 5,716 4,035 23,533 6,893

New Supply (Units) in Q4 18-19

17%

2%10%

3%

7% 15% 11%

2% 1%8% 3% 7%

90%

100%

22%

5%

35%

4%

49%

28%

60%

48%

38%

40%

12%

33%

29%

4%

28%

46%

22%

69%

17%

24%18%

7% 15% 11%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Less than Rs 25 Lac Rs 25 - 50 Lac Rs 50 Lac - 1 Cr. Rs 1 Cr. - 2 Cr.

NCR Pune 8 Cities

4,153 2,510 19,120

264 7,551 24,386

1,246 3,767 21,703

767 638 6,358

463 192 2,149

6,893 14,658 73,716

4%9%

1% 3%

• Among various cost segments, the cost

bracket of Rs.25 Lacs - 50 Lacs witnessed

maximum new launches amounting to 33%

of total new supply followed by the cost

brackets of Rs.50 Lacs – 1Cr. and Less than

Rs. 25 Lacs with 29% and 26% contribution.

• MMR contributed the maximum share of

32% to the total new launches across 8

cities, followed by Pune (20%). Pune also

17%26%

52% 33%

26%

29%

9%

2 Cr. Rs >2 Cr.

12

contributed highest absolute number of new

launches in cost range Rs.25 Lacs.-50 Lacs.

• Almost 60% of the total new launches across

the 8 cities have come under the sub 50 lacs

category.

• MMR is the strongest contributor to New

launches in luxury & ultra luxury

segment, however traces of supply are also

found in NCR, Pune and Hyderabad.

Sales: The incremental sales or realty stock sold between two dates of survey

carried-forward inventory from the previous quarter/quarters.

Unsold: It is the closing stock at the end of the quarter or duration in discussion

New Launch: It is the supply launched (supply which developer starts marketing)

New Addition: Sometimes a project is launched in the earlier quarters but

for instance a new location is added to the city boundary, a big launch in

This uncovered supply is added to database the quarter it is found but is not

supply). Although this supply is not added in the new launches but the sales

Terminology

supply). Although this supply is not added in the new launches but the sales

to these projects, the unsold for current quarter may be higher (or lower)

Price: Weighted Average Price of the Unsold Inventory.

Business Turnover / Value of goods sold: Represents the value of the trade

the total sqft sold during the period with the prevailing prices.

Months Inventory: Represents the number of months required for the stock

calculated by dividing the closing stock (marketable stock) by monthly sales

Sales Velocity: Represents the ratio of monthly sales to the total supply

gestation period of 36months

Disclaimer : Please note, the data undergoes validation cleaningquarters.

survey. It covers sales in new launches (new additions) as well as sales in

discussion.

marketing) during the quarter or duration in discussion.

but is absent from the database. This may happen due to various reasons

in remote/outskirt location exposes smaller projects in the locality, etc.

not included in the new launches for the quarter (as technically this is old

sales and unsold of these projects are added to the respective fields. Duesales and unsold of these projects are added to the respective fields. Due

than the sum of opening and new supply after removing sales.

trade or the business done in a certain period. It is calculated by multiplying

stock in the market to be absorbed according to the existing demand. It is

sales.

supply . An optimum sales velocity is considered to be 2.75% translating to a

13cleaning and corrections, this may reflect slight changes in the numbers of previous

Founded in 1998, Liases Foras is a non-brokerage researchcentric firm that offers data and advisory services. Ourworks on industry and scientific prognosis of the localmarket is highly regarded. We have an organised and

Banks/ Housing Finance Companies

Data ServicesQuarterly updated data on

market is highly regarded. We have an organised andstructured data source on real estate and property trends inIndia, which is updated on quarterly basis by primarymarket survey.

With a team of MBAs, urban planners, architects, charteredaccountants and statisticians, Liaises Foras’ forte lies in thefield of valuation, risk assessment, future forecasting &price behaviour and best use studies. Our clientele includesleading mortgage companies such as HDFC Ltd, AxisBank, among others, real estatefunds, developers, government bodies and leadinginternational research organisations. We are also researchpartner for CNBC Awaaz real estate awards from 2012onwards.

Data Services• Quarterly updated data on

residential, commercial & retail• Online Project Interface

Analytical Services• Quarterly presentation on each

city• Developer Performance Rating• Ad-hoc Due Diligence• Project Reports

Key ClientsHDFC, Axis Bank, SBI, Standard Chartered Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Mannapuram

Banks/ Housing Finance Companies

Data ServicesQuarterly updated data on

DevelopersFunds/NBFCs

14

Data ServicesQuarterly updated data on residential, commercial & retailOnline Project Interface

Analytical ServicesQuarterly presentation on each

Developer Performance Ratinghoc Due Diligence

Project Reports

Key ClientsHDFC, Axis Bank, SBI, Standard Chartered Bank, Kotak Mahindra

Mannapuram, Bajaj HFL

Developers

Research Advisory• Best Use Analysis• Feasibility Studies• Valuations

Data Services• Online Project interface

Key ClientsGodrej Properties, ShapoorjiPaloonji, Tata Realty, L&T Realty, K RahejaUniversal, HiranandaniGroup, Peninsula Land, Embassy Group, Mahindra Lifespaces

Research Advisory• Feasibility Advisory• Investment Analysis• Valuations• Customized Reports

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Key ClientsTCG, Edelweiss, Brookfield Asset Management, Axis AMC, Indiareit, HDFC Fund, Red Fort, Sun Apollo, Aditya Birla Real Estate Fund, Avenue Ventures