Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
Reserving For Mortgage Insurance and Title Insurance in a Changing Real Estate Market. Joseph L. Petrelli, ACAS, MAAA, FCA President Demotech, Inc. Average Commitment Rate On 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgages. Source: freddiemac.com. Average Commitment Rate On 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgages. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Citation preview
Reserving For Mortgage Insurance and Title Insurance
in a Changing Real Estate Market
Joseph L. Petrelli, ACAS, MAAA, FCA
President
Demotech, Inc.
Average Commitment Rate On 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgages
Year Rate Year Rate Year Rate1972 7.38 1984 13.88 1996 7.811973 8.04 1985 12.43 1997 7.601974 9.19 1986 10.19 1998 6.941975 9.05 1987 10.21 1999 7.441976 8.87 1988 10.34 2000 8.051977 8.85 1989 10.32 2001 6.971978 9.64 1990 10.13 2002 6.541979 11.20 1991 9.25 2003 5.831980 13.74 1992 8.39 2004 5.841981 16.63 1993 7.31 2005 5.871982 16.04 1994 8.38 2006 6.411983 13.24 1995 7.93 2007* 6.35
* Through July 2007
Source: freddiemac.com
Source: freddiemac.com
Average Commitment Rate On 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgages
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Refinance Percentage of Mortgage Applications
Source: freddiemac.com
Year Percent Year Percent
1987 31 1998 521988 21 1999 291989 24 2000 241990 26 2001 571991 45 2002 591992 52 2003 651993 58 2004 461994 27 2005 441995 22 2006 431996 30 2007 431997 31
Source: freddiemac.com
Refinance Percentage of Mortgage Applications
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Refinance Purchase
Median Sales Price of Existing Single-Family Homes
Source: realestateabc.com & realtor.org
Year Price Year Price Year Price1968 $20,100 1982 $67,800 1996 $115,8001969 $21,300 1983 $70,300 1997 $121,8001970 $23,000 1984 $72,400 1998 $128,4001971 $24,800 1985 $75,500 1999 $133,3001972 $26,700 1986 $80,300 2000 $139,0001973 $28,900 1987 $85,600 2001 $147,8001974 $32,000 1988 $89,300 2002 $156,2001975 $35,300 1989 $89,500 2003 $169,5001976 $38,100 1990 $92,000 2004 $195,2001977 $42,900 1991 $97,100 2005 $219,0001978 $48,700 1992 $99,700 2006 $221,9001979 $55,700 1993 $103,100 2007Q1 $212,6001980 $62,200 1994 $107,200 2007Q2 $223,8001981 $66,400 1995 $110,500
Source: freddiemac.com
Median Sales Price of Existing Single-Family Homes
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007Q
12007Q
2
Delinquency and Foreclosure Rates
Source: allcountries.org & mortgagebankers.org
Year Delinquency Foreclosure Year Delinquency Foreclosure Year Delinquency Foreclosure1970 3.1 0.3 1983 5.6 0.8 1996 4.3 1.01971 3.5 0.5 1984 5.7 0.9 1997 4.3 1.11972 3.7 0.5 1985 5.8 1.0 1998 4.4 1.11973 4.1 N/A 1986 5.6 1.2 1999 4.1 1.11974 4.2 0.5 1987 5.0 1.3 2000 4.4 1.21975 4.4 0.4 1988 4.8 1.2 2001 5.1 1.51976 4.6 0.4 1989 4.8 1.0 2002 5.1 1.51977 4.5 0.4 1990 4.7 0.9 2003 4.7 1.31978 4.6 0.4 1991 5.0 1.0 2004 4.5 1.21979 4.6 0.4 1992 4.6 1.0 2005 4.5 1.01980 5.0 0.5 1993 4.2 1.0 2006 5.0 1.21981 5.3 0.5 1994 4.1 0.9 2007Q1 4.8 1.31982 5.5 0.8 1995 4.3 0.9
Delinquency and Foreclosure Rates
Source: allcountries.org & mortgagebankers.org
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
Delinquency rates Foreclosure rates
Title Insurance Direct Premiums Written
Source: Demotech, Inc. Form 9 Database
Year Direct Premiums Written1993 $5,318,073,1651994 $5,352,518,2361995 $4,285,437,4951996 $5,047,272,2101997 $5,529,108,7551998 $7,532,339,6391999 $8,109,007,9592000 $7,280,711,3762001 $9,120,633,3862002 $11,981,083,8662003 $15,695,909,5592004 $15,534,839,9502005 $16,835,154,2822006 $16,435,636,904
Title Insurance Direct Premiums Written ($Billions)
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Source: Demotech, Inc. Form 9 Database
Source: The National Association of Insurance Commissioners. Information derived from a Highline Data product (Companies as of 8/15/07).
Private Mortgage Insurance Direct Premiums Written ($Billions)
Year Direct Premiums Written2001 $4,129,925,0002002 $4,528,933,0002003 $4,979,164,0002004 $5,030,963,0002005 $5,190,562,0002006 $5,413,845,000
Private Mortgage Insurance Direct Premiums Written ($Billions)
Source: The National Association of Insurance Commissioners. Information derived from a Highline Data product (Companies as of 8/15/07).
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
